HDD 1/25: Decemberists #1 91k, Kidz Bop #2 69k

[Adam (UTR)]

THE DECEMBERISTS STRIKE IN JANUARY

Look for Four Debuts in Top 10 Next Week, With Kidz Bop, The Script, Social D Also on Tap

January 19, 2011

Well, it’s a start anyway. After a January that so far has set records for lowest-ever sales of a chart-topper, next week’s HITS Album sales tally at least offers a shred of hope, with a possible total of four debut albums in the Top 10.

That’s based on one-day reports from those music retailers who haven’t blamed “Blood Libel” for disastrous 2011 record sales.

Capitol/EMI’s Alternative standbys The Decemberists follow up their critically successful medieval concept album The Hazards of Love with the more up-do-date country-folk stylings of The King Is Dead, which is looking at a first-week projection between 65-70k, putting it in the early lead for #1 on next week’s chart.

Its chief challenger will be Razor & Tie’s long-running Kidz Bop series, now in its 19th incarnation, with a first-week bow of between 55-60k, putting it in the running for the top spot, according to our in-house retail pundits when they finished throwing darts at the wall of their office.

Epic’s Dublin popsters The Script return with a sophomore effort, Science & Faith, the follow-up to their 2008 debut as they aim straight for the heart of Hot Adult, and a first-week sales total of between 37-42k.

SoCal country-punk icons Social Distortion are back with Hard Times and Nursery Rhymes, their first studio album since 2004's Sex, Love and Rock 'n' Roll, and debut for L.A. indie stalwart Epitaph Records, which eyes a Top 10 bow with an estimated 35-40k.

Rock legend Gregg Allman is up next with his comeback album, and Rounder Records debut, Low Country Blues, his first solo effort since 1997’s Searching for Simplicity, and first since his heart transplant seven months ago. Look for sales in the 25-30k area.

Finally, Custard/Atlantic heartthrob crooner James Blunt returns with his third album, Some Kind of Trouble, which should do between 18-23k.

The market was down 11% vs. last week, down 15% vs. same week last year and now down 11% year to date (after only two weeks). Ouch.

[areyoureadytojump]

Good.

[Verisimilitude]

Yes! Very happy for them!

I'm also confident that Adele will get a US #1 album here too.

[HolidayGuy]

Good that next week's #1 will not be below 44K.

But, chances are that we may see <40K at #1 sometime before March, no?

[Hook]

I'm very happy with The Script's sales! Too bad they could have possibly gotten #1 if they had released with these sales a week earlier.

Still, Top 10 (possibly 5?) is fantastic.

[pnobelysk]

Jan 19, 2011 15:20:03 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Good that next week's #1 will not be below 44K.

But, chances are that we may see <40K at #1 sometime before March, no?

eh i doubt it. but id still expect low numbers.

i hope kidz bop doesnt get number one. good enough numbers for the script

[ListenToItTwice]

Jan 19, 2011 15:16:27 GMT -5 Verisimilitude said:

Yes! Very happy for them!

I'm also confident that Adele will get a US #1 album here too.

Agreed. That will be a fun week.

[Envoirment]

Woo, great projection for The Script! Hopefully top 5 album

[passionformusic]

*The Decemberists (Capitol/EMI) 70-75k
*Kidz Bop Kids (Razor & Tie) 55-60k
*The Script (Epic) 40-45k
*Social Distortion (Epitaph) 37-42k
Bruno Mars (New Elektra) 33-37k
Taylor Swift (Big Machine) 32-36k
*Gregg Allman (Rounder) 28-32k
Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJ) 25-28k
Mumford & Sons (Glassnote) 24-27k
Nicki Minaj (Young Money/Cash Money/Universal Motown) 24-27k
Jason Aldean (Broken Bow) 23-26k
*James Blunt (Atlantic) 20-23k
Country Strong (Sony Music Nashville) 20-23k
Katy Perry (Capitol/EMI) 20-23k
Kanye West (Roc-A-Fella/IDJ) 20-23k
*Debuts (1/20p)

[Verisimilitude]

Great sales compared to last week!

[maria4hitz]

Great sales for Taylor and Jason.

[HolidayGuy]

Ooh, increased projection for No. 1.

[Epic Fail]

these sales are also.

[singalong]

Jason Aldean, going for that Platinum.

[neverduplicated]

Jan 20, 2011 22:06:52 GMT -5 singalong said:

Jason Aldean, going for that Platinum.

His album was already certified platinum.

Good to see sales up a bit from last week. Amazed that Bruno Mars looks to have the top-selling non-debut this week. I wonder if he could actually score a #1 album in the coming weeks.

[pokepikalem]

*The Decemberists (Capitol/EMI) 70-75k
*Kidz Bop Kids (Razor & Tie) 55-60k
*The Script (Epic) 40-45k
*Social Distortion (Epitaph) 37-42k
Bruno Mars (New Elektra) 33-37k
Taylor Swift (Big Machine) 32-36k

Should this prediction is accurate, Bruno is the #1 non-debut of this week. Yeah, imagine if there's no "huge" debut this week, he could have gotten a #1.

Nvm, in the future then!

[kt1990]

Jan 21, 2011 3:02:32 GMT -5 neverduplicated said:

Jan 20, 2011 22:06:52 GMT -5 singalong said:

Jason Aldean, going for that Platinum.

His album was already certified platinum.

I think what singalong meant was that it's going for 1 million copies scanned...

[chopped89]

Damn, Nicki...just wow.
She really is doing it BIG! Happy for her :)

[Nadia]

Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJ) 25-28k
nice

[California Cheers]

Jan 21, 2011 10:44:56 GMT -5 Nadia said:

Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJ) 25-28k
nice

Yes!

[hitseeker.]

great sales when compared to last week!

[when the pawn...]

Really happy for all these holdovers (Bruno, Rihanna, Nicki, Kanye and Mumford) for holding up really well after the holidays.

Why did Kanye drop down out of the top 20 during holidays and now he's back top 10/12? I know sales are obviously lower than December but it's interesting. Rihanna, Nicki & Kanye heading towards 1 million, Mumford will pass 700k this week.

[skaterboyccs]

I think Katy might be higher because TD has been discounted on iTunes since thursday!

[passionformusic]

Jan 22, 2011 14:55:47 GMT -5 skaterboyccs said:

I think Katy might be higher because TD has been discounted on iTunes since thursday!

Kesha,too. Her improvement in places of HDD chart/BB200 will be even bigger probably.

[areyoureadytojump]

HITS' building album sales chart:

www.hitsdailydouble.com/sales/salescht.cgi

[areyoureadytojump]

ONE year ago:

CHART DATE: 01/25/2010

-- 1 HOPE FOR HAITI NOW HOPE FOR HAITI 173,593 --
VARIOUS ARTISTS
2 2 SUSAN BOYLE COLUMBIA 82,013 +1%
I DREAMED A DREAM
4 3 LADY GAGA INTERSCOPE 61,994 -4%
FAME
-- 4 SPOON MERGE 54,083 --
TRANSFERENCE
-- 5 2010 GRAMMY NOMINEES CAPITOL/EMI 48,914 --
VARIOUS ARTISTS
5 6 ALICIA KEYS J RECORDS/RMG 41,437 -12%
ELEMENT OF FREEDOM
1 7 VAMPIRE WEEKEND XL/BEGGARS 41,332 -66%
CONTRA
9 8 BLACK EYED PEAS INTERSCOPE 35,327 +10%
E.N.D. (ENERGY NEVER DIES)
3 9 KE$HA KEMOSABE/RCA/RMG 33,310 -49%
ANIMAL
7 10 TAYLOR SWIFT BIG MACHINE 31,936 -6%
FEARLESS

[microcuts]

NOW IN: 55.94%

LW TW artist / album label power index
-- 1 DECEMBERISTS: KING IS DEAD - CAPITOL/EMI 35,481
-- 2 KIDZ BOP KIDS: KIDZ BOP 19 - RAZOR & TIE 30,960
3 3 TAYLOR SWIFT: SPEAK NOW - BIG MACHINE 16,380
5 4 BRUNO MARS: DOO-WOPS & HOOLIGANS - NEW ELEKTRA 15,276
11 5 JASON ALDEAN: MY KINDA PARTY - BROKEN BOW 14,893
7 6 RIHANNA: LOUD - DEF JAM/IDJ 13,487
4 7 NICKI MINAJ: PINK FRIDAY - YM/CASH MONEY/UNIV MOTOWN 13,157
13 8 KATY PERRY: TEENAGE DREAM - CAPITOL/EMI 11,834
-- 9 SOCIAL DISTORTION: HARD TIMES & NURSERY RHYMES - EPITAPH 11,463
19 10 KID ROCK: BORN FREE - ATLANTIC 11,180
18 11 P!NK: GREATEST HITS SO FAR - LAFACE/JLG 10,491
20 12 R. KELLY: LOVE LETTER - JIVE/JLG 9,876
-- 13 JAMES BLUNT: SOME KIND OF TROUBLE - ATLANTIC 9,779
-- 14 THE SCRIPT: SCIENCE & FAITH - EPIC 9,426
21 15 JAMIE FOXX: BEST NIGHT OF MY LIFE - J RECORDS/RMG 9,228
24 16 LADY ANTEBELLUM: NEED YOU NOW - CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 8,934
14 17 EMINEM: RECOVERY - SHADY/AFTERMATH/INT 8,686
6 18 STEEL MAGNOLIA: STEEL MAGNOLIA - BIG MACHINE 8,603
8 19 COUNTRY STRONG: SOUNDTRACK - SONY MUSIC NASHVILLE 8,512
22 20 BLACK EYED PEAS: BEGINNING - INTERSCOPE 7,903
26 21 KENNY CHESNEY: HEMINGWAY'S WHISKEY - BNA 7,760
38 22 BON JOVI: GREATEST HITS - ISLAND/IDJMG 7,635
28 23 NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 36 - CAPITOL/EMI 7,350
17 24 GLEE CAST: GLEE: THE MUSIC, VOL. 4 - COLUMBIA 6,972
-- 25 GREGG ALLMAN: LOW COUNTRY BLUES - ROUNDER 6,889
35 26 TIM MCGRAW: NUMBER ONE HITS - CURB 6,846
23 27 T.I.: NO MERCY - GRAND HUSTLE/ATLANTIC 6,556
1 28 CAKE: SHOWROOM OF COMPASSION - UPBEAT/ILG 6,343
33 29 ZAC BROWN BAND: YOU GET WHAT YOU GIVE - ATLANTIC 6,123
42 30 JUSTIN BIEBER: MY WORLD 2.0 - ISLAND/IDJMG 6,123
34 31 SUGARLAND: INCREDIBLE MACHINE - MERCURY NASHVILLE 6,083
25 32 KEYSHIA COLE: CALLING ALL HEARTS - GEFFEN 5,831
9 33 KANYE WEST: MY BEAUTIFUL DARK TWISTED FANTASY - ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 5,781
36 34 RASCAL FLATTS: NOTHING LIKE THIS - BIG MACHINE 5,698
32 35 KERI HILSON: NO BOYS ALLOWED - INTERSCOPE 5,617
27 36 LIL WAYNE: I AM NOT A HUMAN BEING - CASH MONEY/UNIV MOTOWN 4,902
44 37 SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE: A YEAR WITHOUT RAIN - HOLLYWOOD 4,678
2 38 CAGE THE ELEPHANT: THANK YOU HAPPY BIRTHDAY - JIVE/RED 4,636
-- 39 TREY SONGZ: PASSION PAIN & PLEASURE - ATLANTIC 4,409
31 40 MICHAEL JACKSON: MICHAEL - EPIC 4,285
39 41 KE$HA: CANNIBAL - KEMOSABE/RCA/RMG 4,260
-- 42 CHARLIE WILSON: JUST CHARLIE - JIVE/JLG 4,187
10 43 MUMFORD & SONS: SIGH NO MORE - GLASSNOTE 3,937
40 44 BIG TIME RUSH: BTR - NICKELODEON/COLUMBIA 3,861
-- 45 MIRANDA LAMBERT: REVOLUTION - COLUMBIA NASHVILLE 3,850
-- 46 ALAN JACKSON: 34 NUMBER ONES - ARISTA NASHVILLE 3,706
30 47 JOSH GROBAN: ILLUMINATIONS - REPRISE 3,702
43 48 TRAIN: SAVE ME SAN FRANCISCO - COLUMBIA 3,556
46 49 LINKIN PARK: A THOUSAND SUNS - WARNER BROS. 3,387
49 50 BURLESQUE: SOUNDTRACK - RCA/RMG 3,314

NOW IN: FINAL[/color]

LW TW artist / album label power index % change
-- 1 DECEMBERISTS: KING IS DEAD - CAPITOL/EMI 90,929 --
-- 2 KIDZ BOP KIDS: KIDZ BOP 19 - RAZOR & TIE 69,308 --
-- 3 THE SCRIPT: SCIENCE & FAITH - EPIC 49,833 --
-- 4 SOCIAL DISTORTION: HARD TIMES & NURSERY RHYMES - EPITAPH 40,040 --
5 5 BRUNO MARS: DOO-WOPS & HOOLIGANS - NEW ELEKTRA 33,682 +4%
-- 6 GREGG ALLMAN: LOW COUNTRY BLUES - ROUNDER 33,117 --
13 7 KATY PERRY: TEENAGE DREAM - CAPITOL/EMI 32,380 +37%
3 8 TAYLOR SWIFT: SPEAK NOW - BIG MACHINE 31,997 -10%
-- 9 JAMES BLUNT: SOME KIND OF TROUBLE - ATLANTIC 27,010 --
4 10 NICKI MINAJ: PINK FRIDAY - YM/CASH MONEY/UNIV MOTOWN 26,614 -19%
7 11 RIHANNA: LOUD - DEF JAM/IDJ 25,769 -12%
10 12 MUMFORD & SONS: SIGH NO MORE - GLASSNOTE 25,615 +2%
11 13 JASON ALDEAN: MY KINDA PARTY - BROKEN BOW 23,718 -6%
18 14 P!NK: GREATEST HITS SO FAR - LAFACE/JLG 21,676 +18%
8 15 COUNTRY STRONG: SOUNDTRACK - SONY MUSIC NASHVILLE 20,757 -24%
9 16 KANYE WEST: MY BEAUTIFUL DARK TWISTED FANTASY - ROC-A-FELLA/IDJMG 20,429 -22%
14 17 EMINEM: RECOVERY - SHADY/AFTERMATH/INT 18,781 -13%
19 18 KID ROCK: BORN FREE - ATLANTIC 17,647 -4%
20 19 R. KELLY: LOVE LETTER - JIVE/JLG 17,431 -2%
12 20 BLACK KEYS: BROTHERS - NONESUCH 17,294 -27%
22 21 BLACK EYED PEAS: BEGINNING - INTERSCOPE 14,803 -11%
24 22 LADY ANTEBELLUM: NEED YOU NOW - CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 14,744 +6%
1 23 CAKE: SHOWROOM OF COMPASSION - UPBEAT/ILG 14,420 -66%
39 24 KE$HA: CANNIBAL - KEMOSABE/RCA/RMG 14,320 +41%
21 25 JAMIE FOXX: BEST NIGHT OF MY LIFE - J RECORDS/RMG 14,293 -15%
-- 26 BRANDON HEATH: LEAVING EDEN - REUNION 14,193 --
2 27 CAGE THE ELEPHANT: THANK YOU HAPPY BIRTHDAY - JIVE/RED 13,888 -64%
38 28 BON JOVI: GREATEST HITS - ISLAND/IDJMG 13,657 +34%
33 29 ZAC BROWN BAND: YOU GET WHAT YOU GIVE - ATLANTIC 13,526 +21%
23 30 T.I.: NO MERCY - GRAND HUSTLE/ATLANTIC 13,294 -7%
17 31 GLEE CAST: GLEE: THE MUSIC, VOL. 4 - COLUMBIA 12,560 -32%
6 32 STEEL MAGNOLIA: STEEL MAGNOLIA - BIG MACHINE 12,517 -57%
16 33 DAFT PUNK: TRON: LEGACY (SOUNDTRACK) - WALT DISNEY 12,298 -39%
27 34 LIL WAYNE: I AM NOT A HUMAN BEING - CASH MONEY/UNIV MOTOWN 12,147 0%
26 35 KENNY CHESNEY: HEMINGWAY'S WHISKEY - BNA 12,119 -2%
36 36 RASCAL FLATTS: NOTHING LIKE THIS - BIG MACHINE 11,879 +11%
42 37 JUSTIN BIEBER: MY WORLD 2.0 - ISLAND/IDJMG 11,134 +14%
30 38 JOSH GROBAN: ILLUMINATIONS - REPRISE 10,928 -6%
41 39 CEE LO GREEN: LADY KILLER - NEW ELEKTRA 10,718 +9%
34 40 SUGARLAND: INCREDIBLE MACHINE - MERCURY NASHVILLE 10,674 -2%
29 41 FLORENCE & THE MACHINE: LUNGS - UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 10,382 -13%
35 42 TIM MCGRAW: NUMBER ONE HITS - CURB 10,210 -5%
28 43 NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 36 - CAPITOL/EMI 9,483 -21%
25 44 KEYSHIA COLE: CALLING ALL HEARTS - GEFFEN 9,112 -32%
32 45 KERI HILSON: NO BOYS ALLOWED - INTERSCOPE 8,853 -21%
48 46 LADY GAGA: THE FAME - INTERSCOPE 8,194 +5%
49 47 BURLESQUE: SOUNDTRACK - RCA/RMG 8,134 +5%
-- 48 TIMES OF GRACE: HYMN OF A BROKEN MAN - ROADRUNNER 8,115 --
44 49 SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE: A YEAR WITHOUT RAIN - HOLLYWOOD 8,045 -4%
46 50 LINKIN PARK: A THOUSAND SUNS - WARNER BROS. 8,042 +1%

[David]

18 11 P!NK: GREATEST HITS SO FAR - LAFACE/JLG 10,491

:O New peak this week?! It peaked at #14 before. I hope it does.

[rosemoor]

-- 14 THE SCRIPT: SCIENCE & FAITH - EPIC 9,426

:(

[slicknickshady]

Remember in the past, They could have an album at 4,000 with 90% in and end up with 100,000 at 100% in. So you really shouldn't use a frown face yet.