Billboard Hot 100: 2/5/11

[leoapp]

Hot 100 prediction
1. Grenade 204k + 136 = 340
2. Firework 163k + 144 = 307
3. Black and Yellow 201k + 72 = 274
4. What's My Name 100k + 160 = 260
5. Tonight (I'm Lovin' You) 167k + 82 = 249
6. HIAM," 183k + 64 = 247

[itsbritneybitch]

Jan 26, 2011 11:51:06 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Spears' track probably will perform similarly to "3" in terms of chart performance- though that single "only" logged 20 weeks on the Hot 100, so it didn't have crazy longevity in that respect.

hold it against me will def have more longevity than 3...

[Eqbk]

Jan 26, 2011 11:58:49 GMT -5 leoapp said:

Hot 100 prediction
1. Grenade 204k + 136 = 340
2. Firework 163k + 144 = 307
3. Black and Yellow 201k + 72 = 274
4. What's My Name 100k + 160 = 260
5. Tonight (I'm Lovin' You) 167k + 82 = 249
6. HIAM," 183k + 64 = 247

Seems like I made a tiny mistake calculating Enrique's points. Looks he'll have the edge. Thanks for catching the mistake. Where did you get the numbers for Rihanna?

Jan 26, 2011 11:51:06 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Spears' track probably will perform similarly to "3" in terms of chart performance- though that single "only" logged 20 weeks on the Hot 100, so it didn't have crazy longevity in that respect.

I think it will do better than 3. What hindered 3 was the limited airplay on other formats. HIAM is shaping to be one of Britney's biggest hits on Rhythmic and Hot AC. The promo also hurt 3, since there was just a video. HIAM will likely get more promo than that.

[leoapp]

Jan 26, 2011 12:07:05 GMT -5 Eqbk said:

Where did you get the numbers for Rihanna?

Rihanna's number is just a prediction.

[HolidayGuy]

But, Spears' past tracks have not really had crazy longevity, so why should the new one be much different? "...Baby One More Time" spent the longest on the Hot 100 (32 weeks). After that, it's 23 weeks for "Womanizer" and 22 weeks for "'Circus." Well, if it matched "Womanizer's" run, that would be 3 more weeks, which would be more longevity. :)

As for Rhythmic and Hot AC, there's only so far it can go there (for instance, it's unlikely to hit top 10 at Hot AC).

[1shot]

Jan 26, 2011 12:06:53 GMT -5 itsbritneybitch said:

Jan 26, 2011 11:51:06 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Spears' track probably will perform similarly to "3" in terms of chart performance- though that single "only" logged 20 weeks on the Hot 100, so it didn't have crazy longevity in that respect.

hold it against me will def have more longevity than 3...

Could you back that up with...well... ANYTHING?

At least the poster who said it would not have longevity is basing it on her last singles' performance. AND we already know this new song is gonna dive around 5 spots already in one week.

[Spidey]

Dang "Hold It Against Me" had a huge drop this week digitally.

[David]

I think the hype around it made a lot of people buy it who may have purchased it later. I think the video will help HIAM when it's released.

[HolidayGuy]

The video should help stabilize sales for a time, sure. But, based on Spears' past videos and what this latest is about, the video's unlikely to have an impact on singles sales like, for instance, Pink's current single.

I don't think anyone said HIAM wouldn't have longevity- it's not like the single's going to plummet far down the charts. Just that it may not have much more than past tracks that hung around the longest. There likely will be a second single out before the album release ,too.

[livelikedying111]

Jan 26, 2011 13:27:14 GMT -5 1shot said:

Jan 26, 2011 12:06:53 GMT -5 itsbritneybitch said:

hold it against me will def have more longevity than 3...

Could you back that up with...well... ANYTHING?

At least the poster who said it would not have longevity is basing it on her last singles' performance. AND we already know this new song is gonna dive around 5 spots already in one week.

In my opinion, the difference is that 3 was a greatest hits or more accurately a singles collection single, whereas this one is from a new studio album, and will probably have more backing to it. Better single treatment, to put it simple.

[badrobot]

Well, the flipside is of it being from a new album is that a second single may end up getting promoted very quickly which could make HIAM lose some of the radio/sales attention in a few months.

[jebsib]

Serious question from an Old Fogey: The last 9 singles from Britney Spears (everything since 2004's "Everytime") have sounded sort-of similar to me. Are they hot? Yes, but all seem electronic-dance based. Are they really that different from each other?

When I was coming up, take Madonna for example: "like a Virgin" sounded nothing like "Live to Tell" or "Vogue" or "Justify My Love". More recent examples of artists with diversity in their singles are Lady Gaga and Rihanna (partic 2007/2008 Rihanna)

My big question is: Moving forward, does this sonic lack of variety hurt Brit's long-term chart future? Or am I just missing the boat, and these post-2003 Brit singles all sound different to everyone?

[ListenToItTwice]

^^ I think they do sound different to her fans, but I'm hearing something closer to what you're hearing. I think she'll still be able to have long term success, simply because her devoted fanbase is just so huge, and will take a very long time to get bored with her, if ever.

[slw84]

Jan 26, 2011 14:08:55 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

The video should help stabilize sales for a time, sure. But, based on Spears' past videos and what this latest is about, the video's unlikely to have an impact on singles sales like, for instance, Pink's current single.

I don't think anyone said HIAM wouldn't have longevity- it's not like the single's going to plummet far down the charts. Just that it may not have much more than past tracks that hung around the longest. There likely will be a second single out before the album release ,too.

I don't know...wouldn't 20 weeks be considered as having longevity. there are songs that don't log in that many weeks. I guess for Britney I always like to see if she can past 20 weeks assuming she would have to be in the top 50 still. I think this will log in 20+ weeks much in the same way of Womanizer and Circus but considering that it is the beginning of the year the song will probably be played alot throughout the spring also. It won't exactly get lost in the shuffle of 4th quarter releases so maybe that will help longevity.

[Kishi KCM]

We can't tell the future...just enjoy the ride while you're on it. The song is only 2 weeks old.

[slw84]

Jan 26, 2011 15:13:49 GMT -5 jebsib said:

Serious question from an Old Fogey: The last 9 singles from Britney Spears (everything since 2004's "Everytime") have sounded sort-of similar to me. Are they hot? Yes, but all seem electronic-dance based. Are they really that different from each other?

When I was coming up, take Madonna for example: "like a Virgin" sounded nothing like "Live to Tell" or "Vogue" or "Justify My Love". More recent examples of artists with diversity in their singles are Lady Gaga and Rihanna (partic 2007/2008 Rihanna)

My big question is: Moving forward, does this sonic lack of variety hurt Brit's long-term chart future? Or am I just missing the boat, and these post-2003 Brit singles all sound different to everyone?

Well, i assume you mean post 2004 as Everytime and Toxic were released then

Gimme more
Piece of me
Break the ice
Womanizer
Circus
If you seek amy
Radar
3
Hold it against me

You make a good point...all of them are dance pop. I see similarities in 3 and IUSA I feel like the others sound nothing like each other though. Song songs are sultry, some are filled with attitude, and it seems like a couple are more anthemic and some are more sex driven.

But I do notice all are some blend of dance pop. Which makes he hope that the second single will be the 10th dance track for the spring and then she will release a mid tempo or ballad in the summer (I know that sounds crazy but often when a spring single is huge it gets played in the summer too so...).

I don't think it will hurt her chart future. With digital sales, I expect more and more chart success in comparison to 2002-2005 time in her career.

To me, the concepts have constantly changed up in her music to reflect what was hot or going to be hot for the moment...maybe that is what people differentiate that it is a snapshot in time.

I remember a song from her catalog when teen pop, urban pop, anthemic pop, dance pop, etc. were huge. I suspect she will keep making signature tunes reflecting the sign of the times.

[badrobot]

I think Gaga is an odd counterexample to Britney. A lot of people remarked how Just Dance and Poker Face sounded remarkably similar (even used some of the same instrumentation). I think she maybe mixed it up a bit more than Britney has but really I think what you're hearing is just a sign of the times. Most artists stick to a genre, and if you are not already a big fan of that genre, it can start to all sound the same. For example, to me all jazz sounds nearly identical, but I'm sure to jazz fans they hear huge differences.

[badrobot]

(Whereas it used to be a lot of pop artists would go back and forth from dance to ballads, particularly during the 90s.)

[jebsib]

slw84 - good analysis, thanks.

badrobot, I agree that Gaga's first two (or even three songs sounded a bit alike), but to me, Paparazzi, BR, Telephone and Alejandro - while still in the pop-dance vein, felt as if they branched a bit thematically.

[Eqbk]

Jan 26, 2011 12:26:06 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

But, Spears' past tracks have not really had crazy longevity, so why should the new one be much different? "...Baby One More Time" spent the longest on the Hot 100 (32 weeks). After that, it's 23 weeks for "Womanizer" and 22 weeks for "'Circus." Well, if it matched "Womanizer's" run, that would be 3 more weeks, which would be more longevity. :)

I see what you're saying. I had initially had similar views. Her three biggest singles recently had similar chart runs to each other. The reason I changed my mind is b/c the circumstances were different. She's done very little promo for her last two eras. All 'Womanizer' and 'Circus' got was a few performances before the album release and a video and '3' didn't get any promo outside a video. If she does a substantial amount of promo like she used to, things could change.

As for Rhythmic and Hot AC, there's only so far it can go there (for instance, it's unlikely to hit top 10 at Hot AC).

True but she's not just getting a little more airplay, she's getting a lot more than say '3' did. She seems on track to break her AI record. Rhythmic and Hot AC will act as a much bigger cushion to her pop airplay than they did for her previous singles. In any case, I'm more concerned about longevity than peaks on these formats. Oops is her highest peaking song on Rhythmic but BOMT had more longevity on that format, which is partly why BOMT had a longer run than Oops on the Hot 100.

[Choco]

Oops didn't have a single release either, I think.

[Eqbk]

Jan 26, 2011 17:07:38 GMT -5 Choco said:

Oops didn't have a single release either, I think.

True. That's why I said partly the reason why BOMT did better than Oops in my post. In addition to that, BOMT had more longevity on radio formats and everything was much more spread out airplay wise for BOMT.

Assuming she'll do more substantial promo, I think HIAM can do better. Something has always hindered her single performance such as the radio boycott, no physical sales available, no digital sales incorporated in the Hot 100, and/or minimal promo. With HIAM, she's getting a lot of radio support and solid digital sales. She just needs to promote enough to keep things stable. BOMT is the only single I feel wasn't hindered by something. She had good airplay, a physical single available, and she promoted everywhere.

[pnobelysk]

Jan 26, 2011 16:35:06 GMT -5 badrobot said:

I think Gaga is an odd counterexample to Britney. A lot of people remarked how Just Dance and Poker Face sounded remarkably similar (even used some of the same instrumentation). I think she maybe mixed it up a bit more than Britney has but really I think what you're hearing is just a sign of the times. Most artists stick to a genre, and if you are not already a big fan of that genre, it can start to all sound the same. For example, to me all jazz sounds nearly identical, but I'm sure to jazz fans they hear huge differences.

i think you got this perfectly, for the most part if its not a genre you are paticularly fond of most likley songs by the same artist will sound alike

[pnobelysk]

Jan 26, 2011 14:42:13 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Well, the flipside is of it being from a new album is that a second single may end up getting promoted very quickly which could make HIAM lose some of the radio/sales attention in a few months.

well having an album out instead of one single will keep her in the spotlight longer, people might fall in love with the 2nd single who didnt love HIAM, but then give HIAM a second chance, this could happen with multiple singles

[pnobelysk]

Jan 26, 2011 12:26:06 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

But, Spears' past tracks have not really had crazy longevity, so why should the new one be much different? "...Baby One More Time" spent the longest on the Hot 100 (32 weeks). After that, it's 23 weeks for "Womanizer" and 22 weeks for "'Circus." Well, if it matched "Womanizer's" run, that would be 3 more weeks, which would be more longevity. :)

As for Rhythmic and Hot AC, there's only so far it can go there (for instance, it's unlikely to hit top 10 at Hot AC).

her early sinlges cant be compared regarding longivitiy since most of them relied on airplay which would limit their potential staying power on the hot 100


HIAM gold in two weeks :)

[pnobelysk]

Jan 26, 2011 11:34:43 GMT -5 leoapp said:

55%, someone knows, is it the biggest 2nd week digital single sales drop in percent?

unless you mean from the top spot im sure it isnt.

a lot of countdown singles have huge drops like taylor's mean and that one jonas brother song.

[pnobelysk]

Jason Aldean/Kelly Clarkson, Don't You Wanna Stay (57,000, +5%, 490,000 total)
Carrie Underwood, Mama's Song (13,000, -9%, 336,000)
Carrie Underwood, Temporary Home (12,000, +160%, 663,000)
Carrie Underwood, Undo It (7,000, -9%, 999,000)
Carrie Underwood, Cowboy Casanova (5,000, -6%, 1.574 million)
Carrie Underwood, Before He Cheats (5,000, +2%, 3.149 million)
Jason Castro, You Are (2,000, +8%, 15,000)
Jason Castro, Hallelujah [Album Version] (1,000, +31%, 56,000)

Dont you wanna stay gold next week, Undo it platnium next week. TH increase from an auditioner singing it. This chart is boring, Jennifer Hudson will be on it soonish!

[Deleted]

So "Grenade" is #1 again?

[HolidayGuy]

Well, most of the singles charting on the Hot 100 in 1999-2002 relied on airplay, and some had lengthier Hot 100 runs. So, the lack of CD single doesn't matter all that much in that regard.

Spears' only had four U.S. CD single releases. A number of her singles were issued on 12-inch vinyl, though.

[Deleted]

Jan 26, 2011 18:14:23 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Well, most of the singles charting on the Hot 100 in 1999-2002 relied on airplay, and some had lengthier Hot 100 runs. So, the lack of CD single doesn't matter too much in that regard.

Spears' only CD singles were "...Baby," "Stronger" and "Me Against the Music," the latter a maxi-only. A number of her singles were issued on 12-inch vinyl, though.

You forgot about From the bottom of my broken heart ;).