Billboard Hot 100: 2/26/11

[HolidayGuy]

Yes- the spins-based chart are Monday-Sunday, whereas the audience-based charts are Wednesday-Tuesday. It's been that way since BDS started tracking airplay.

The SoundScan-era sales period always has been Monday-Sunday- though prior to late 1998, mass merchants' sales period was Saturday-Friday- which affected first-week sums for albums, as they had two less days of sales at mass merchant outlets reflected in their debut-week numbers. In turn, though, that also probably helped soften second-week drops. In late 1998, mass merchants changed it to Monday-Sunday to match up with all other outlets.

[jamrock16]

Woah 63 million AI in 3 days?! "Born this Way will blow past "Deja Vu"'s Hot 100 airplay debut of 75 mill easily.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Feb 14, 2011 16:23:15 GMT -5 jamrock16 said:

Woah 63 million AI in 3 days?! "Born this Way will blow past "Deja Vu"'s Hot 100 airplay debut of 75 mill easily.

To be honest a number of songs have debuted with higher AI's.

[badrobot]

Feb 14, 2011 17:08:17 GMT -5 Adonis the DemiGod! said:

Feb 14, 2011 16:23:15 GMT -5 jamrock16 said:

Woah 63 million AI in 3 days?! "Born this Way will blow past "Deja Vu"'s Hot 100 airplay debut of 75 mill easily.

To be honest a number of songs have debuted with higher AI's.

Name them.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Fantasy
That's The Way Love Goes
All For You

Let's start with those...

[jamrock16]

Feb 14, 2011 17:08:17 GMT -5 Adonis the DemiGod! said:

Feb 14, 2011 16:23:15 GMT -5 jamrock16 said:

Woah 63 million AI in 3 days?! "Born this Way will blow past "Deja Vu"'s Hot 100 airplay debut of 75 mill easily.

To be honest a number of songs have debuted with higher AI's.

Oh yeah I know, just none since Deja Vu (2006). I wonder how high GaGa will get by Wednesday, 90-100 mill?

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Feb 14, 2011 17:28:08 GMT -5 jamrock16 said:

Feb 14, 2011 17:08:17 GMT -5 Adonis the DemiGod! said:

To be honest a number of songs have debuted with higher AI's.

Oh yeah I know, just none since Deja Vu (2006). I wonder how high GaGa will get by Wednesday, 90-100 mill?

I'm hoping she can get 100million audience impressions by Wed.

for those who didn't already know Billboard basically said Gaga is a lock for #1 this week.

[Choco]

Feb 14, 2011 3:24:31 GMT -5 @musicissalvation said:

The saddest thing about this is that BTW will be a number 1 single while Bad Romance will not be; cruel.

:( Oh well, I prefer Romance by far but I guess this is an statement of how huge TFM-era was.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Feb 14, 2011 18:20:55 GMT -5 Choco said:

Feb 14, 2011 3:24:31 GMT -5 @musicissalvation said:

The saddest thing about this is that BTW will be a number 1 single while Bad Romance will not be; cruel.

:( Oh well, I prefer Romance by far but I guess this is an statement of how huge TFM-era was.

This makes up for the fact that Bad Romance didn't get #1. I'm glad this song went to #1 though because of the song's message.

[HolidayGuy]

^Pre-December 1998 tracks that debuted high did not have higher audiences than BTW when they debuted- Hot 100 Airplay consisted of top 40 mainstream, rhythmic, AC and modern rock stations up until December 1998, which is when all other formats joined the panel. Tracks like "That's the Way Love Goes" and "Fantasy"high overall audience than Hot 100 Airplay indicated, but urban stations, again, were not part of the Hot 100 Airplay panel until December 1998. Plus, the number of top 40 mainstream stations that BDS monitored circa 1992-1995 was almost 40%-50% smaller than what it is now. Same for rhythmic.

"All For You" probably had an audience of 60 million-65 million when it debuted at No. 9.

"Deja Vu's" BDS audience, I don't believe, was as high as 75 million; that high a total usually ranks in the top 10.

"Born This Way" may end the week with 80 million+, so it should join the group of top 10 debuts on Hot 100 Airplay.

[badrobot]

As HG indicated, those songs likely did not have higher audience levels. We will probably find out what the highest first week audience is when the chart is released Weds. They will probably reference the stat in a write up.

[Deleted]

Feb 14, 2011 14:46:43 GMT -5 bibliotheque said:

After its first three days of availability, Lady Gaga's "Born This Way" rockets to a record-setting debut on Billboard's Mainstream Top 40 radio airplay chart. And thanks to exceptionally strong opening digital sales estimates -- not to mention her eye-grabbing performance of the song at the Grammy Awards last night -- looks likely to storm the Billboard Hot 100 at No. 1 when the latter list is released Wednesday. This, of course, would make the song the 1,000th No. 1 single in the Billboard Hot 100's history.

The first single and title track from the star's third studio album, due May 23, storms Mainstream Top 40 at No. 14 with 4,602 plays, according to Nielsen BDS, the highest detections total by a debuting title in the chart's 18-year history. Additionally, sources say that "Born" shifted more than 450,000 downloads its first three days of release since Friday morning.

Its big sales start, plus jaw-dropping radio launch, sets up the song's likely debut at No. 1 on the Hot 100. Not only would a No. 1 start represent just the Hot 100's 19th No. 1 opening, but, as previously reported, it would also mark the survey's 1,000th leader dating to its 1958 inception.

A bow of 450,000 downloads would secure Lady Gaga the biggest debut for a track by a woman, surpassing Britney Spears' bow with "Hold It Against Me" four weeks ago (411,000). If Gaga moves 450,000, it would also mark the fourth-largest debut among all digital tracks -- a remarkable feat, considering the song had less than three full days of sales availability.

The biggest start for a track overall belongs to Flo Rida's "Right Round," which started with 636,000 in February 2009. In second place: the Black Eyed Peas' "Boom Boom Pow" (465,000); and, third: Flo Rida's "Low" (460,000).

The opening Mainstream Top 40 plays sum of 4,602 for "Born" (which translates to a first-week audience of 39.3 million) bests the mark established when "Hold It Against Me" arrived with 4,071 spins four weeks ago. (Spears' song debuted after a full seven days of airplay. "Born" sets the format opening-week plays mark after only three days of availability, following the song's arrival at radio early Friday).


By launching at No. 14, "Born" logs the second-highest start in the Mainstream Top 40 list's archives. Only Mariah Carey's "Dreamlover" began at a higher rank, having soared in at No. 12 the week of Aug. 14, 1993. "Hold It Against Me" and Madonna's "Frozen" (March 7, 1998) follow with No. 16 arrivals.

www.billboard.biz/bbbiz/industry/record-labels/lady-gaga-s-born-this-way-on-track-to-become-1005035092.story

More than satisfied that Gaga bested Britney's records from just a few weeks ago.

[Eqbk]

This week's top ten should be exciting. Gaga debuts, BEP will likely come back as well, while Rihanna & Dr. Dre are likely to exit the top ten. Glee's version of 'Firework' may also enter. If that happens, that means there will be two versions of the same song in the top ten at the same time. Has that ever happened before?

[badrobot]

^Inside Your Heaven - Bo Bice and Carrie Underwood

[lugus15]

Feb 14, 2011 15:56:47 GMT -5 musik... said:

Those airplay gains and digital downloads are historic! If only she had released it on Monday or Tuesday, she would have easily shattered digital download and radio airplay records. And with all this momentum, she's gonna do amazing numbers first week when her album is released.

I think she might very well be this year's Eminem (aka the best selling album of the year).

Also, I think that if her second single is more like TF/TFM kinda singles and she releases on a Monday or Tuesday, she might very well sell 600k upwards on the first week.

I like that she released something so different from her previous sound as her first single. She thus proves she is not a one-trick pony (something Katy was able to do, but Kesha so far hasn't). And lol, she is basically showing off by releasing a single with only 3 days of sales and debuting @ #1.

And last but not least, she might very well be (post 1998) the first #1 debut to last more than one week @ #1.

Whether people like or not, she IS the new Madonna/Michael.... aka the biggest thing in music right now (not only in the US but WW).

[CammyCan]

Does anyone know the debut AI of "Justify My Love"?

[Fat Ass Kelly Price]

Feb 14, 2011 20:27:10 GMT -5 lugus15 said:

Feb 14, 2011 15:56:47 GMT -5 musik... said:

Those airplay gains and digital downloads are historic! If only she had released it on Monday or Tuesday, she would have easily shattered digital download and radio airplay records. And with all this momentum, she's gonna do amazing numbers first week when her album is released.

I think she might very well be this year's Eminem (aka the best selling album of the year).

Also, I think that if her second single is more like TF/TFM kinda singles and she releases on a Monday or Tuesday, she might very well sell 600k upwards on the first week.

I like that she released something so different from her previous sound as her first single. She thus proves she is not a one-trick pony (something Katy was able to do, but Kesha so far hasn't). And lol, she is basically showing off by releasing a single with only 3 days of sales and debuting @ #1.

And last but not least, she might very well be (post 1998) the first #1 debut to last more than one week @ #1.

Whether people like or not, she IS the new Madonna/Michael.... aka the biggest thing in music right now (not only in the US but WW).

I'm not seeing how BTW is anything really different from her previous sound. The sound is in the same realm really. And it has yet to negatively affect Ke$ha.

Her success is crazy. Gonna be great to watch.

[fridayteenage]

I find one-week airplay records kind of whatever and didn't care at all that Britney had one.

The download record is more impressive, though I wonder if we'll find out what the first 7 days of BTW sold.

However, if BTW somehow gets #5 on Radio Songs this Thursday I will likely go like this: www.youtube.com/v/FJKdTOPJDPQ?

[when the pawn...]

The last few days have been so much fun to watch this single boom. Both sales and airplay records are nothing less than astonishing. So high on this track/last night's interview/performance...CANNOT WAIT for the album.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Feb 14, 2011 18:22:50 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

^Pre-December 1998 tracks that debuted high did not have higher audiences than BTW when they debuted- Hot 100 Airplay consisted of top 40 mainstream, rhythmic, AC and modern rock stations up until December 1998, which is when all other formats joined the panel. Tracks like "That's the Way Love Goes" and "Fantasy"high overall audience than Hot 100 Airplay indicated, but urban stations, again, were not part of the Hot 100 Airplay panel until December 1998. Plus, the number of top 40 mainstream stations that BDS monitored circa 1992-1995 was almost 40%-50% smaller than what it is now. Same for rhythmic.

"All For You" probably had an audience of 60 million-65 million when it debuted at No. 9.

"Deja Vu's" BDS audience, I don't believe, was as high as 75 million; that high a total usually ranks in the top 10.

"Born This Way" may end the week with 80 million+, so it should join the group of top 10 debuts on Hot 100 Airplay.

I thought afy was in the 90/100mm range when ais were higher. Even igl had like 80mm in total audience. I used to get the hits magazine back during the afy days. Remember during those times urban songs had much higher ais

[Libra]

Feb 14, 2011 20:36:43 GMT -5 CammyCan said:

Does anyone know the debut AI of "Justify My Love"?

Charts weren't tracking AI at the end of 1990. Basically anything before even the changeover out of the playlist-based tracking system (November 30, 1991) can't be considered.

[HolidayGuy]

Adonis- "I Get Lonely" peaked at No. 26 (I believe) on Hot 100 Airplay- so it certainly did not have 80m audience on that chart. It peaked top three (I think) on R&B Airplay. So, if you added its peak audience on Hot 100 Airplay with its peak audience on R&B Airplay, it probably totaled in the 65m range. But on Hot 100 Airplay, the peak was somewhere around 25m-30m.

When "Don't Tell Me" peaked at No. 10 on Hot 100 Airplay in early 2001, its peak audience was in the neighborhood of 60m-65m. So, "All For You" likely was not far off that mark when it debuted.

RE "Justify My Love"- Billboard did publish the Top 40 Radio Monitor starting in late 1990, but it never released audience numbers at that time. In fact, it didn't start referring to actual audience numbers in the Hot 100 Spotlight column until circa 1995-1996. Nonetheless, again, the Hot 100 Airplay panel was only 100-130 stations from late 1990-1993- it had dropped back to 101 or so, before climbing back up again with the addition of AC and modern rock. A number of smaller-market top 40 stations still were reporting airplay via the old ranked-playlist system, as BDS did not monitor them until later on.

[forg]

An exciting week on the chart, I expect a lot of movements! ;)

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Feb 15, 2011 0:22:55 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Adonis- "I Get Lonely" peaked at No. 26 (I believe) on Hot 100 Airplay- so it certainly did not have 80m audience on that chart. It peaked top three (I think) on R&B Airplay. So, if you added its peak audience on Hot 100 Airplay with its peak audience on R&B Airplay, it probably totaled in the 65m range. But on Hot 100 Airplay, the peak was somewhere around 25m-30m.

When "Don't Tell Me" peaked at No. 10 on Hot 100 Airplay in early 2001, its peak audience was in the neighborhood of 60m-65m. So, "All For You" likely was not far off that mark when it debuted.

RE "Justify My Love"- Billboard did publish the Top 40 Radio Monitor starting in late 1990, but it never released audience numbers at that time. In fact, it didn't start referring to actual audience numbers in the Hot 100 Spotlight column until circa 1995-1996. Nonetheless, again, the Hot 100 Airplay panel was only 100-130 stations from late 1990-1993- it had dropped back to 101 or so, before climbing back up again with the addition of AC and modern rock. A number of smaller-market top 40 stations still were reporting airplay via the old ranked-playlist system, as BDS did not monitor them until later on.

I was referring to total audience not just HOT 100 audience. The HOT 100 only started counting all formats into one chart in 1999. TTWLG debuted at #4 in HOT 100 airplay(CHR/Pop & CHR/Rhy) and #1 in R&B Airplay. To make fair comparisons you have to compare apples to apples and not oranges to apples.

IGL had at least as much as 49.7 in audience on the R&B Airplay alone and likely even more than that. But in that chart it mentioned the fact that both IGL and AML were breaking records for audience in the R&B Airplay arena. They made mention that AML was peaking at like 56mm in R&B audience and IGL was right behind that. This is why the adds in HITS mag always touted the 80mm in total BDS as Mediabase didn't exist at the time. It's part of the reason they changed the HOT 100 as IGL would've debuted at #1 had that 50mm in audience been included in the HOT 100 totals for IGL.

[HolidayGuy]

Oh, I agree that it's definitely worth noting airplay on R&B for R&B tracks- but I don't think Billboard will add up those numbers for this kind of thing. Any track that got decent airplay on R&B obviously would have had higher audience peaks on Hot 100 Airplay if all formats were part of the panel. But, like I said, audience totals even for pop radio would have been even higher had BDS monitored the smaller markets earlier than it did.

And then we have rock songs that would have had higher audience peaks if rock formats (other than modern rock) were part of the panel before December 1998. And country songs like "You're Still the One" would have peaked higher in airplay- and so on and so forth.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

I would be curious to know what the exact numbers were for AFY. I don't have the BB magazine anymore.

[HolidayGuy]

I just checked- "All For You" had 70 million audience to debut at No. 9 on Hot 100 Airplay (at the time, 850 stations made up the airplay panel; it's higher today). I think it may have bubbled under the prior week, but not sure. In any event, "Born This Way" looks like it will top that, without R&B airplay support.

Re "I Get Lonely"- it looks like its BDS peak was 48 million, per Billboard (it was bulleted on R&B Airplay at No. 2 when the single debuted, then lost its bullet thereafter). A week later, on Hot 100 Airplay, it had 27 million audience at its No. 25 airplay peak (unbulleted).

[Deleted]

What about Touch My Body? Some people compared its performance on the radio to Deja Vu (except that TMB didn't fall as hard as DV did). Does anybody know with how much impressions the song debuted?

[Rodze]

46 million for TMB.

[Rodze]

Feb 14, 2011 12:51:27 GMT -5 badrobot said:

I don't know the rest but here's the Gaga update:

LADY GAGA -Born This Way: 63.504 (+17.842)

Daily airplay (rounded):
Friday: 25m
Saturday: 20m
Sunday: 18m

She's on track to have potentially 90m by the end of this tracking week, which will include Monday and Tuesday. She could debut as high as #5!

Today

LADY GAGA -Born This Way: 74.091 (+10.587)