Billboard Hot 100: 6/04/11

[HolidayGuy]

^"The Edge of Glory" is moving alright enough. Can't really compare it to something like "Born This Way," which received the biggest out-of-the-box airplay of any track in the all-inclusive-airplay-panel-era.

I'm gonna go out on a limb (well, not really) and say "I'm into You" will not approach the success of "On the Floor."

[DJ General]

"Super Bass" is a solo song from Nicki because that is how it is credited. Ester Dean is a D list artist most people don't even know, so of course they are not going to credit her right now. This has been done countless times...remember Ke$ha on Right Round?

[Black Jesus]

May 22, 2011 11:02:50 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb (well, not really) and say "I'm into You" will not approach the success of "On the Floor."

Agreed except idk if that's exactly "going out on a limb". I think most are expecting that lol

[chartfreak]

May 22, 2011 11:02:50 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

^"The Edge of Glory" is moving alright enough. Can't really compare it to something like "Born This Way," which received the biggest out-of-the-box airplay of any track in the all-inclusive-airplay-panel-era.

I'm gonna go out on a limb (well, not really) and say "I'm into You" will not approach the success of "On the Floor."

Yes, but I was thinking compared to say Alejandro, etc.

[HolidayGuy]

But will "I'm into You" even take off in any manner? It looks like radio's just going to stick to "On the Floor" for a while yet. Unlike Enrique Iglesias- who also scored a decent-sized "comeback" hit featuring Pitbull- Lopez may not see another decent-sized hit from the album.

[Pikachu.]

Looks like TTWE will linger in the Top 10 for quite awhile longer.

[areyoureadytojump]

New RIAA digital single certifications:

Flo-Rida, Low 6xp

Cee Lo Green F*ck You 4xp
Bruno Mars, Grenade 4xp
Jay Sean, Down 4xp

Plain White T's, Hey There Delilah 3xp

Adele, Rolling in the Deep 2xp
Rihanna, What's My Name 2xp
The Script, Breakeven 2xp
Lil Wayne, A Mili 2xp

[beautynumber2]

May 22, 2011 10:18:34 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

^^I'm sure it had something to do with it. :) Gotta love free promotion. Now I haven't followed Gaga's songs in the past, but is EOG moving up at her normal pace or should she be higher in AI at this point?

Edge of Glory is slowly posting +1 million increases daily which is great. "Born this Way" and "Judas" both increased faster, but all songs debuted with ~10 million pretty quickly. The trouble is Radio already has 2 Gaga songs on playlist trying to phase them out. If TEOG can keep posting increases, in a month when "Born This Way" and "Judas" are gone it will have even bigger increases! BTW should be 20 million less by then and "Judas" should have less than 5 total

[HolidayGuy]

Katy Perry and others have enjoyed two top 20 airplay hits simultaneously. That's not to say anything about Stef. G- I just don't think it's a matter of 'Edge" depending on radio "dropping" other singles of hers. "Edge" very well may see larger increases, but I don't think that's dependent to radio clearing her other singles from the airwaves- especially since "Born This Way" and "Judas" have been declining pretty swiftly.

[beautynumber2]

May 22, 2011 15:18:31 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Katy Perry and others have enjoyed two top 20 airplay hits simultaneously. That's not to say anything about Stef. G- I just don't think it's a matter of 'Edge" depending on radio "dropping" other singles of hers. "Edge" very well may see larger increases, but I don't think that's dependent to radio clearing her other singles from the airwaves- especially since "Born This Way" and "Judas" have been declining pretty swiftly.

For Gaga, in this era, I think it is. Gaga is on the verge of overexposure and many feel she's already been overexposed this last year. Besides, Gaga's songs from her last 2 records still get substantial recurrent pop airplay. There's a lot of Gaga on radio right now and after "Judas" i think some DJs are hesistant to just immediately play the sh*t out of any Gaga song as a lot of people did not like "Judas" one bit.

[HolidayGuy]

^That could be a reason- hesitation, not because of other tracks in rotation. "Born his Way" did great in airplay, but didn't sustain like her other hits- and then "Judas" didn't go very far. So, some radio stations may be playing it more cautiously than before in terms of how many times they play a new Gaga track.

[Choco]

I think her material has been a lot more polarizing this era too, while her Fame singles were safer. Of course she took risks with TFM, but those were safer than BTW and Judas.

[beautynumber2]

May 22, 2011 20:56:57 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

^That could be a reason- hesitation, not because of other tracks in rotation. "Born his Way" did great in airplay, but didn't sustain like her other hits- and then "Judas" didn't go very far. So, some radio stations may be playing it more cautiously than before in terms of how many times they play a new Gaga track.

Which is what needs to happen! It's great that thy're wanting to jump on what's hot... but playing the crap out of a new song just because the artist is anticipated is a little much. QUALITY! not hype! shamon!

[d.t.m]

Looks like Beyonce is continuing with this new sound no matter how it performs. The label obviously wants this album out soon and is hoping aggressive promo will make these singles stick.

[jdanton2]

it looks like Bruno Mars and Just The Way You Are accomplished one thing with its long run in airplay by winning the Top Radio song at the Billboard Awards, and it is still top 20 as of yesterday.

[Enigma.]

re:Gaga

The problem is that she has forced radio station to choose which single to support. You can't have three songs on playlist. If she had released just two tracks for airplay and nothing else before the album they both would have great chart runs. Instead, she chose the Glee route - something to make headlines all the time for two months before the album release.

So you can't really say Judas or TEOG is flopping because it's impossible to register high numbers with three songs simultanously.

Sales are different story, but of course but airplay plays a significant role there as well, especially considering the longevity.

[stanr]

TOP 10
.
1. KATY PERRY - E.T.: 148.954 (- 0.403)
2. ADELE - Rolling In The Deep: 137.256 (+ 2.238)
3. BLACK EYED PEAS - Just Can't Get Enough: 116.577 (- 0.066)
4. BRITNEY SPEARS - Till The World Ends: 98.990 (+ 0.379)
5. JENNIFER LOPEZ f/ PITBULL - On The Floor: 85.101 (+ 0.811)
6. PITBULL - Give Me Everything f/Ne-Yo: 81.379 (+ 2.483) ▲
7. BRUNO MARS - Lazy Song: 79.845 (+ 1.374) ▲
8. JEREMIH - Down On Me f/50 Cent: 78.910 (- 1.399) ▼
9. CHRIS BROWN - Look At Me Now: 74.018 (- 0.120)
10. LUPE FIASCO - The Show Goes On: 73.309 (+ 1.262)
.

.
11. RIHANNA - S&M: 69.518 (- 1.820)
12. WIZ KHALIFA - Roll Up: 65.579 (+ 1.162) ▲
13. TINIE TEMPAH - Written In The Stars f/ETurner: 65.371 (- 0.477) ▼
14. CEE LO GREEN - F**k You (Forget You): 62.133 (- 0.798)
15. PINK - F**kin' Perfect (Perfect): 61.993 (- 0.874)
16. THE SCRIPT - For The First Time: 60.884 (+ 0.565)
17. KE$HA - Blow: 56.417 (- 1.103)
18. BRAD PAISLEY - Old Alabama f/Alabama: 52.249 (+ 0.441)
19. BRUNO MARS - Just The Way You Are: 51.603 (+ 0.246)
20. RASCAL FLATTS - I Won't Let Go: 51.571 (+ 0.322)
.

.
KANYE WEST - All Of The Lights: 49.575 (- 0.639)
KELLY ROWLAND - Motivation f/Lil Wayne: 47.688 (+ 1.311)
MIGUEL - Sure Thing: 43.818 (+ 0.373)
KEITH URBAN - Without You: 43.697 (+ 0.360)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Mean: 41.222 (+ 0.430)
CHRIS BROWN - She Ain't You: 41.134 (+ 0.477)
BIG SEAN - My Last f/Chris Brown: 38.749 (+ 0.198)
THE BAND PERRY - You Lie: 37.914 (+ 0.274)
NEW BOYZ - Back Seat f/Cataracs & Dev: 36.000 (- 0.105)
JESSIE J - Price Tag f/B.O.B: 35.880 (+ 0.131)
LMFAO - Party Rock Anthem: 29.399 (+ 1.250)
LADY GAGA - The Edge Of Glory: 27.719 (+ 1.535)
ONEREPUBLIC - Good Life: 27.149 (+ 0.839)
NICKI MINAJ - Super Bass: 23.695 (+ 0.691)
SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE - Who Says: 23.649 (+ 0.448)
MARTIN SOLVEIG & DRAGONETTE - Hello: 22.201 (+ 0.218)
MAROON 5 - Never Gonna Leave This Bed: 22.125 (+ 0.036)
LADY ANTEBELLUM - Just A Kiss: 20.349 (+ 1.128)
JASON DERULO - Don't Wanna Go Home: 20.251 (+ 1.708)
BEYONCE - Run The World (Girls): 20.120 (- 0.321)
FOO FIGHTERS - Rope: 19.865 (- 0.111)
MY CHEMICAL ROMANCE - Sing: 17.638 (- 0.287)
TREY SONGZ - Unusual f/Drake: 16.554 (+ 0.446)
TAYLOR SWIFT - The Story Of Us: 15.852 (+ 0.655)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS - Dirty Dancer f/Usher/Lil Wayne: 13.029 (+ 0.778)
RIHANNA - Man Down: 13.014 (+ 0.245)
COLBIE CAILLAT - I Do: 11.806 (- 0.121)
DAVID GUETTA/FLO RIDA/NICKI M. - Where Them Girls At: 9.111 (+ 0.098)
RIHANNA - California King Bed: 6.282 (+ 0.257)
JENNIFER LOPEZ - I'm Into You f/Lil Wayne: 5.108 (+ 0.029)
NICOLE SCHERZINGER - Right There: 3.577 (+ 0.096)
KATY PERRY - Last Friday Night (T.G.I.F.): 3.055 (+ 0.194)

[HolidayGuy]

"Born This Way" wasn't a risky release- she just threw in some references to sexual orientations, ethnicities and such later in the track- and the sound was straight out of late 1980s pop. The "Judas" video also wasn't as bad as some thought it would be- the track itself, thematically, may not have been as appealing to the masses, that is true.

Looks like Adele will climb to No. 1 airplay for the 6/11 chart.

[Kworb]

Hot 100 prediction based on my sales estimates + airplay

1. Rolling In The Deep (315 + 142 = 457)
2. E.T. (172 + 148 = 320)
3. Give Me Everything (221 + 86 = 307)
4. Just Can't Get Enough (128 + 116 = 244)
5. The Lazy Song (150 + 83 = 233)
6. On The Floor (138 + 87 = 225)
7. Till The World Ends (107 + 100 = 207)
8. Party Rock Anthem (168 + 32 = 200)
9. The Show Goes On (109 + 76 = 185)
10. Look At Me Now (104 + 73 = 177)

11. Down On Me (81 + 75 = 156)
12. Hair (146 + 1 = 147)
13. Roll Up (77 + 68 = 145)
14. Written In The Stars (80 + 64 = 144)
15. Super Bass (116 + 25 = 141)
16. The Edge Of Glory (104 + 30 = 134)
17. S&M (68 + 65 = 133)
18. Forget You (70 + 61 = 131)
19. Blow (72 + 54 = 126)
20. Dirty Dancer (110 + 15 = 125)

[jj99$ - - LeLe]

nice one kworb.

[slw84]

May 23, 2011 8:16:44 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

"Born This Way" wasn't a risky release- she just threw in some references to sexual orientations, ethnicities and such later in the track- and the sound was straight out of late 1980s pop. The "Judas" video also wasn't as bad as some thought it would be- the track itself, thematically, may not have been as appealing to the masses, that is true.

Looks like Adele will climb to No. 1 airplay for the 6/11 chart.

IA. I don't understand how some people say that BTW was risky when it ripped off Madonna's Express yourself. Just like RTW was a sample song from a club hit.

A risk is stepping out of the box to do something that would not be expected. I expect controversy from Gaga and female anthems from B.

To me, JLO, Britney, Kesha releasing a ballad as a first single is risky. Pink talking about doing that folk/non commercial album next is risky. Anyone from the BEPs outside of Fergie and Will.I.Am doing solo albums is risky. Rihanna taking an actual break...year off between albums is risky. Things that are completely out of their element.

[slw84]

May 23, 2011 5:50:26 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

re:Gaga

The problem is that she has forced radio station to choose which single to support. You can't have three songs on playlist. If she had released just two tracks for airplay and nothing else before the album they both would have great chart runs. Instead, she chose the Glee route - something to make headlines all the time for two months before the album release.

So you can't really say Judas or TEOG is flopping because it's impossible to register high numbers with three songs simultanously.

Sales are different story, but of course but airplay plays a significant role there as well, especially considering the longevity.

Didn't Bruno Mars just have three songs in the top 20 airplay with 2 of them gaining at one point?

[fanatic]

May 23, 2011 9:01:02 GMT -5 Kworb said:

Hot 100 prediction based on my sales estimates + airplay

1. Rolling In The Deep (315 + 142 = 457)
2. E.T. (172 + 148 = 320)
3. Give Me Everything (221 + 86 = 307)
4. Just Can't Get Enough (128 + 116 = 244)
5. The Lazy Song (150 + 83 = 233)
6. On The Floor (138 + 87 = 225)
7. Till The World Ends (107 + 100 = 207)
8. Party Rock Anthem (168 + 32 = 200)
9. The Show Goes On (109 + 76 = 185)
10. Look At Me Now (104 + 73 = 177)

11. Down On Me (81 + 75 = 156)
12. Hair (146 + 1 = 147)
13. Roll Up (77 + 68 = 145)
14. Written In The Stars (80 + 64 = 144)
15. Super Bass (116 + 25 = 141)
16. The Edge Of Glory (104 + 30 = 134)
17. S&M (68 + 65 = 133)
18. Forget You (70 + 61 = 131)
19. Blow (72 + 54 = 126)
20. Dirty Dancer (110 + 15 = 125)

Did you include the remixes?

[Rodze]

He doesn't have sales numbers. He's guessing based on iTunes.

[fridayteenage]

Huh. That's higher than I would have guessed for Hair, but I suppose it was really, really frontloaded. LMFAO T10 would be nice.

Will Adele get ET's 5 weeks, BTW's 6 weeks, or more?

[felipe]

May 22, 2011 11:02:50 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb (well, not really) and say "I'm into You" will not approach the success of "On the Floor."

Which proves that Idol promotion and a hot rapper don't garantee a hit.

[Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...]

May 23, 2011 13:14:54 GMT -5 felipe said:

May 22, 2011 11:02:50 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb (well, not really) and say "I'm into You" will not approach the success of "On the Floor."

Which proves that Idol promotion and a hot rapper don't garantee a hit.

But it did for OTF.

[lugus15]

OTF owes it all to it's Lambada sampling....

END OFF....

[pnobelysk]

May 23, 2011 10:27:54 GMT -5 slw84 said:

May 23, 2011 5:50:26 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

re:Gaga

The problem is that she has forced radio station to choose which single to support. You can't have three songs on playlist. If she had released just two tracks for airplay and nothing else before the album they both would have great chart runs. Instead, she chose the Glee route - something to make headlines all the time for two months before the album release.

So you can't really say Judas or TEOG is flopping because it's impossible to register high numbers with three songs simultanously.

Sales are different story, but of course but airplay plays a significant role there as well, especially considering the longevity.

Didn't Bruno Mars just have three songs in the top 20 airplay with 2 of them gaining at one point?

gaga's 3 singles were released much faster than bruno's

[slw84]

May 23, 2011 15:09:29 GMT -5 pnobelysk said:

May 23, 2011 10:27:54 GMT -5 slw84 said:

Didn't Bruno Mars just have three songs in the top 20 airplay with 2 of them gaining at one point?

gaga's 3 singles were released much faster than bruno's

Good point...but I was referring to the fact that he had three songs all over the radio with 2 gaining. Edge of glory was released because Judas was not doing that well. It's not like they were all doing well at radio and blocked because it was too much gaga. Judas just wasn't that good for radio listeners...Edge of glory seems to be though so that is good.