iTunes Thread

[Deleted]

Apr 11, 2019 22:27:00 GMT -5 Gary said:

OK was just trying to help - your own chart and estimates and your own personal multipliers on a slowly dying sales chart make sense in that is a creative way of looking at things but it in no way means much of anything.

Not knocking your personal chart and your take on it - it is creative but in no way is it something that should be taken in the context of an official all-time chart for anyone other than you.

kworb has the cumulative sales chart since 2013, using multipliers accounting for sales fluctuation. 
kworb.net/pop/cumulative.html
That's essentially the same thing I told you about. It's more like, objective and about numbers. It's not my personal chart. 
Or xxxTentacion's Sad! would've been competing for #1 of 2010s.

[owenlovesmusic]

1. Old Town Road Remix
2. Boys With Luv (BTS / Halsey)
3. Old Town Road
4. Make It Right (BTS)
5. God’s Country (Blake Shelton)
6. Blue on Black (Five Finger Death Punch)
7. Mikrokosomos (BTS)
8. HOME (BTS)
9. Dionysus (BTS)
10. Jamais vu (BTS)

[Gary]

Apr 13, 2019 9:40:33 GMT -5 @avont said:

Apr 11, 2019 22:27:00 GMT -5 Gary said:

OK was just trying to help - your own chart and estimates and your own personal multipliers on a slowly dying sales chart make sense in that is a creative way of looking at things but it in no way means much of anything.

Not knocking your personal chart and your take on it - it is creative but in no way is it something that should be taken in the context of an official all-time chart for anyone other than you.

kworb has the cumulative sales chart since 2013, using multipliers accounting for sales fluctuation. 
kworb.net/pop/cumulative.html
That's essentially the same thing I told you about. It's more like, objective and about numbers. It's not my personal chart. 
Or xxxTentacion's Sad! would've been competing for #1 of 2010s.

You did your own calculations, you did your own estimates, how is that not a personal chart?

Regardless, your conclusions are faulty.

If Old Town Road moves 100K digital downloads this week and it looks like it will, does that make it one of the biggest songs of the decade?
Does Shallow selling 20K a week for 6 months and being in the top 10 of digital sales make it one of the biggest songs of the decade?

I don't really need to do another page of discussion on this. I will just cite another little example. Physical CD singles. #1 moves like 100 copies a week. It is also likely a song you have never heard of (Single sales are so small they don't even do charts anymore btw) - Does that figure into all time charts if you add in multipliers and estimates.

You may have pulled some numbers from Kworb but the rest of it is all you.

Call it what you will just sayin...in the digital songs environment: people may have a different view on what the 'best performing song of the decade' is on digital sales.

[Deleted]

Gary
What can I say, doubter? I'm a believer of song sales.
Song sales chart and destiny is calling me
Open up my eager eyes
'Cause I'm Mr. Brightside!

[Deleted]

Anyways, how tf did OT Road only sell 124k last week? 
Why did kworb predict 141k and be off for more than 10%??! When was the last time it had such error margin to let someone down when official number was published?

Just a few weeks ago, kworb predicted Shallow's sales exactly correct (115k), and for Sucker, it underestimated it...
I wonder how did kworb estimate the weekly sales numbers?

[tanooki]

Hes said that he'll usually not be off by more than 10%, that's within his margin of error

[Gary]

Whether it was 124K or 141K just a little adjustment to your multiplier and you can still call it the biggest sales week of the decade


Have fun

[Deleted]

Apr 18, 2019 12:34:03 GMT -5 Gary said:

Whether it was 124K or 141K just a little adjustment to your multiplier and you can still call it the biggest sales week of the decade


Have fun

Fun!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[fhas]

Apr 18, 2019 12:27:38 GMT -5 @avont said:

Anyways, how tf did OT Road only sell 124k last week? 
Why did kworb predict 141k and be off for more than 10%??! When was the last time it had such error margin to let someone down when official number was published?

Just a few weeks ago, kworb predicted Shallow's sales exactly correct (115k), and for Sucker, it underestimated it...
I wonder how did kworb estimate the weekly sales numbers?

Maybe because this was his first week predicting since early-March.

I said in my final predictions for the Hot 100 that he could be overestimating the numbers, but it's really hard to predict with how fast iTunes is decliing in popularity.

[areyoureadytojump]

kworb.net/pop/

1. Lil Nas X (feat. Billy Ray Cyrus) - Old Town Road Remix
2. Lil Nas X - Old Town Road
3. Five Finger Death Punch - Blue on Black
4. Blake Shelton - God’s Country
5. Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper - Shallow
6. Ava Max - Sweet but Psycho
7. Jonas Brothers - Sucker
8. Madonna & Maluma - Medellín
9. Post Malone & Swae Lee - Sunflower
10. BTS - Boy With Luv (feat. Halsey)

[Deleted]

Howdy, sales b*tches. 
How much do you guys think ME! will sell this week?

My early prediction is 123,666 copies (about 10.666 times lead over #10, as a reference LWYMMD did 10.086 times lead over #10 in its first week).

[billboardtopten]

Apr 26, 2019 3:17:41 GMT -5 @avont said:

Howdy, sales b*tches. 
How much do you guys think ME! will sell this week?

My early prediction is 123,666 copies (about 10.666 times lead over #10 just like LWYMMD).

ThIs FoNt LoOkS gOoD, dOeSn'T iT?

[kcdawg13]

Apr 26, 2019 3:17:41 GMT -5 @avont said:

Howdy, sales b*tches. 
How much do you guys think ME! will sell this week?

My early prediction is 123,666 copies (about 10.666 times lead over #10, as a reference LWYMMD did 10.086 times lead over #10 in its first week).

It's gonna be over 200k for sure, she might be able to hit 300k, but that's a big maybe.

[Deleted]

Apr 26, 2019 4:17:41 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Apr 26, 2019 3:17:41 GMT -5 @avont said:

Howdy, sales b*tches. 
How much do you guys think ME! will sell this week?

My early prediction is 123,666 copies (about 10.666 times lead over #10, as a reference LWYMMD did 10.086 times lead over #10 in its first week).

It's gonna be over 200k for sure, she might be able to hit 300k, but that's a big maybe.

Lol i just explained the numbers play a proportionate game.
When LWYMMD was released, the #10 song sold 35k, nowadays the number of #10 weekly seller is 12-14k.
So far in its first few hours it doesn’t seem to have bigger lead than LWYMMD’s first few hours, so unless it’s commercial performance’s possessed by the devil as the music video, it’s not gonna pass 150k to steal OT Road’s pride.

[billboardtopten]

Apr 26, 2019 4:29:04 GMT -5 @avont said:

Apr 26, 2019 4:17:41 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

It's gonna be over 200k for sure, she might be able to hit 300k, but that's a big maybe.

Lol i just explained the numbers play a proportionate game.
When LWYMMD was released, the #10 song sold 35k, nowadays the number of #10 weekly seller is 12-14k.
So far in its first few hours it doesn’t seem to have bigger lead than LWYMMD’s first few hours, so unless it’s commercial performance’s possessed by the devil as the music video, it’s not gonna pass 150k to steal OT Road’s pride.

This sales prediction is one of the worst predictions I've seen on here

[Deleted]

Apr 26, 2019 4:59:15 GMT -5 billboardtopten said:

Apr 26, 2019 4:29:04 GMT -5 @avont said:

Lol i just explained the numbers play a proportionate game.
When LWYMMD was released, the #10 song sold 35k, nowadays the number of #10 weekly seller is 12-14k.
So far in its first few hours it doesn’t seem to have bigger lead than LWYMMD’s first few hours, so unless it’s commercial performance’s possessed by the devil as the music video, it’s not gonna pass 150k to steal OT Road’s pride.

This sales prediction is one of the worst predictions I've seen on here

No idea what do you mean. 
Keep being ignorant and insulting for no reason.

[Deleted]

For a song that can't seem to break youtube record (only 27m views in over half a day),
this is surely looking pretty scary, just like the music video.
This breaks the record of biggest lead proportionately on iTunes already (45:1 over #10), Hello's biggest lead's about 22:1 over #10.

1 TS - ME! (feat. Brendon Urie of Panic! At The Disco) 1.0000
2 Lil Nas X - Old Town Road (feat. Billy Ray Cyrus) [Remix] 0.1243
3 Blake Shelton - God's Country 0.0404
4 Florence + The Machine - Jenny of Oldstones (Game of Thrones) 0.0300
5 Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper - Shallow 0.0294
6 P!nk - Walk Me Home 0.0294
7 Jonas Brothers - Sucker 0.0286
8 Ava Max - Sweet but Psycho $ 0.0273
9 Post Malone & Swae Lee - Sunflower (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse) 0.0231 
10 Lil Nas X - Old Town Road 0.0229

[Choco]

I'm gonna guess Swift sells around 150k. Best case 200k.

[gabe]

Apr 26, 2019 13:19:59 GMT -5 @avont said:

For a song that can't seem to break youtube record (only 27m views in over half a day),
this is surely looking pretty scary, just like the music video.
This breaks the record of biggest lead proportionately on iTunes already (45:1 over #10), Hello's biggest lead's about 22:1 over #10.

1 TS - ME! (feat. Brendon Urie of Panic! At The Disco) 1.0000
2 Lil Nas X - Old Town Road (feat. Billy Ray Cyrus) [Remix] 0.1243
3 Blake Shelton - God's Country 0.0404
4 Florence + The Machine - Jenny of Oldstones (Game of Thrones) 0.0300
5 Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper - Shallow 0.0294
6 P!nk - Walk Me Home 0.0294
7 Jonas Brothers - Sucker 0.0286
8 Ava Max - Sweet but Psycho $ 0.0273
9 Post Malone & Swae Lee - Sunflower (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse) 0.0231 
10 Lil Nas X - Old Town Road 0.0229

Different sales ^climates

[Choco]

Apr 26, 2019 13:28:19 GMT -5 gabe said:

Different sales ^climates

Don't bother bringing that crucial fact here. Everytime I see the "biggest lead ever on iTunes!!!" discussion I just roll my eyes and carry on.

As if any song will ever come close to what "Hello" sold on week 1. "Look What You Made Me Do" had considerably more hype and it sold "only" 353k.

[Deleted]

Apr 26, 2019 13:32:31 GMT -5 Choco said:

Apr 26, 2019 13:28:19 GMT -5 gabe said:

Different sales ^climates

Don't bother bringing that crucial fact here. Everytime I see the "biggest lead ever on iTunes!!!" discussion I just roll my eyes and carry on.

As if any song will ever come close to what "Hello" sold on week 1. "Look What You Made Me Do" had considerably more hype and it sold "only" 353k.

I know it's different sales climates. I'm not a moron or this whole world's gonna be dead.
You guys are even more pathetic, just take the charts by the stupid raw numbers.
I'm talking about the performance in iTunes pop bar. I didn't talk about raw sales on that post. You people need to read before you can respond again, now it's very obnoxious to see bots pretending they're smarter than me.
It broke a big record on iTunes pop bars, it meant something.

You bots just don't like to follow sales chart. That's what this whole thing's about.

[Choco]

[rimetm]

Here's why it's silly to look solely at the proportions for interesting stats. In Switzerland, the #1 currently has a 2:1 lead over the new challenger. Sounds spicy, right? Well, the problem here is, if you look at the proportions' tied intervals, you'll quickly realize that to get into the top 100, you only need 3 copies in the timespan, and #1 is only selling ~147 copies. While the US' chart isn't quite on that level of irrelevance, it's slowly but surely going in that direction, and so talks of things like "ME! has a 45:1 lead over #10" basically translate to "so day 1 *might* go to 50k if the momentum actually keeps up" (Due to differing versions causing disparity between Digital Sales' data and iTunes, #10 on the popbar usually does 8-10k on average), which is a lot less exciting than the initial portrayal.

[Gary]

For those tracking this. The song has peaked and is starting to drift back to the rest of the pack. It still has a 25x lead over #10 if that means anything

[Gary]

Old Town Road could likely be back at #1 by the end of the weekend

[Deleted]

Damn. Why is kworb's sales estimate archive forbidden?
Wtf is going on?
kworb.net/cc/archive/us/

[Deleted]

Apr 26, 2019 13:56:05 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Here's why it's silly to look solely at the proportions for interesting stats. In Switzerland, the #1 currently has a 2:1 lead over the new challenger. Sounds spicy, right? Well, the problem here is, if you look at the proportions' tied intervals, you'll quickly realize that to get into the top 100, you only need 3 copies in the timespan, and #1 is only selling ~147 copies. While the US' chart isn't quite on that level of irrelevance, it's slowly but surely going in that direction, and so talks of things like "ME! has a 45:1 lead over #10" basically translate to "so day 1 *might* go to 50k if the momentum actually keeps up" (Due to differing versions causing disparity between Digital Sales' data and iTunes, #10 on the popbar usually does 8-10k on average), which is a lot less exciting than the initial portrayal.

Lol I don't just look at proportions... Sales is still incredible to watch. Don't make it big and phony. How many people do you really think exist in the world? Don't ever say 7 billion.

Besides, Billboard themselves use chart runs and multipliers to weigh all-time single and album charts, is there more haters of Billboard than haters of me?
They ranked Adele's 21 higher than Michael Jackson's Thriller. Despite Thriller outsold 21 3:1.
The Sound of Music only had like a Gold certification and ranked higher than a 33x Platinum record.

At the end of the day, according to kworb, ME! will have a 11:1 lead over #10 this week, that's on-par with OT Road's biggest week and LWYMMD's debut, and slightly less than Hello's damn ratio. So that makes sense and consistent with Taylor's first week sales ability.
Ratio itself is not gonna go wild at all.
The ratio of #10:#50, for example, has always been roughly 3:1, even to this day (#10 carries 15k copies and #50 with 4-5k)
I collect the database and know that it's been very similar ratio every year. Proportion game is what nature plays.
It's not gonna be like, #50 song sells 3 copies, so #10 song can be like, 100:1. No freakin' way. Read statistics from kworb.


It's just that the 45:1 lead over #10 on its first day really was like a brand, it's somewhat objective as a record, breaking LWYMMD's 30:1.

[Au$tin]

May 1, 2019 18:45:15 GMT -5 @avont said:

How many people do you really think exist in the world? Don't ever say 7 billion.

wut

sigur is that you?

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

1.Shawn Mendes - If I Can't Have You
2.Logic Ft Eminem - Homicide

[Deleted]

May 3, 2019 10:27:15 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

1.Shawn Mendes - If I Can't Have You
2.Logic Ft Eminem - Homicide

Lol you can’t spell “Shawn Mendes” or “Eminem” without “me”.