Jrod82
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Post by Jrod82 on Jun 19, 2019 8:13:44 GMT -5
Interesting upcoming ccusa co-host schedule: Coming weekend: Lee Garth Garth Eric Maren Interesting in that Blake isn’t on there. Either he just didn’t feel like doing it, or he’ll go on after Maren & they’re thinking GC can hold #1 through that period Im just gonna be honest but I think Maren will be a MB only #1. I feel like Aldean will catch up to her and block her from the BB #1.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jun 19, 2019 8:27:17 GMT -5
Interesting upcoming ccusa co-host schedule: Coming weekend: Lee Garth Garth Eric Maren Interesting in that Blake isn’t on there. Either he just didn’t feel like doing it, or he’ll go on after Maren & they’re thinking GC can hold #1 through that period Im just gonna be honest but I think Maren will be a MB only #1. I feel like Aldean will catch up to her and block her from the BB #1. Really. Because he needs to pass both Luke Combs and Chris Young in order to do that and I don't see that happening. I think Maren Morris is pretty safe to get both the Billboard #1 and Mediabase #1. But time will tell.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Jun 19, 2019 9:37:51 GMT -5
Im just gonna be honest but I think Maren will be a MB only #1. I feel like Aldean will catch up to her and block her from the BB #1. Really. Because he needs to pass both Luke Combs and Chris Young in order to do that and I don't see that happening. I think Maren Morris is pretty safe to get both the Billboard #1 and Mediabase #1. But time will tell. I think Blake or Luke C might block Maren, but not Aldean. I am somewhat assuming WMN will push for multiple weeks, at least on BB, for "God's Country" & that Sony will want the same for "beer"
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jun 23, 2019 14:12:36 GMT -5
I am gonna just do the Top 30, short and simple this week as the Top 30 is the easiest to predict. Also I have been busy this week.
1. Thomas Rhett "Look What God Gave Her" 2. Lee Brice "Rumor" 3. Blake Shelton "God's Country" 4. Morgan Wallen "Whiskey Glasses" 5. Eric Church "Some of It" 6. Kane Brown "Good As You"(last week?) 7-8. Luke Combs "Beer Never Broke My Heart" 7-8. Maren Morris "Girl" 9. Chris Young "Raised On Country" 10-11. Brett Eldredge "Love Someone"(last week) 10-11. Jason Aldean "Rearview Town" 12. Dan + Shay "All To Myself" 13. Justin Moore "The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home" 14. Luke Bryan "Knockin Boots" 15. Florida Georgia Line "Talk You Out of It" 16. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton "Dive Bar" (New!) 17. Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell "What Happens In A Small Town" 18. Runaway June "Buy My Own Drinks" 19-22. Cole Swindell "Love You Too Late" 19-22. Carrie Underwood "Southbound" 19-22. Chris Lane "I Don’t Know About You" 19-22. Keith Urban "We Were" 23-26. Morgan Evans "Day Drunk" 23-26. Russell Dickerson "Every Little Thing" 23-26. Tim McGraw "Thought About You" 23-26. Rascal Flatts "Back to Life" 27. Lady Antebellum "What If I Never Get Over You" 28. Dierks Bentley "Living" 29. Matt Stell "Prayed For You" 30. Tenille Townes "Somebody's Daughter"
Sorry for the quick/brief prediction. Next week I will have more to elaborate on. Hope everyone reading has a good day. Bye!
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Jul 29, 2019 23:00:43 GMT -5
Out of “Some Of It”, “God’s Country” and “Whiskey Glasses”, I wonder if there is potential for all 3 of them to go recurrent next week and leave open a few new spots in the top 10. It will also be interesting to see how much “GIRL” falls next week.
Also, with “Beer Never Broke My Heart” ready to hit #1 it will be interesting to see if they try to go for a multiweek chart topper or if Dan+Shay and Jason will force it to only get 1 week.
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Jul 31, 2019 18:41:41 GMT -5
So I know the the Country Countdown USA schedule doesn’t always line up directly with who is making a last week push on the chart but the next several weeks are up and here they are:
Aug. 3-4 Dustin Lynch Aug. 10-11 Chris Young Aug. 17-18 Jason Aldean Aug. 24-25 Justin Moore
So I’m thinking Luke Combs will be #1 this coming weekend on MB/BB. Then it will be between both Luke/D+S on the weekend Chris hosts. I don’t think Chris will make it to #1 since he’s behind the two mentioned above as well as Jason/Justin but I think he will get close. D+S will probably be #1 that week. Then it will be Jason and Justin to round out August.
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Jrod82
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Post by Jrod82 on Aug 10, 2019 7:41:47 GMT -5
We may have a good chart cleaning this week. I think Maren, Morgan W & Blake should all possibly go recurrent. If that’s the case I see Dierks and FGL entering the top 10. Unless Runaway June passes up FGL these next couple days anyways. Eric I thought would go recurrent too but I look for him to hang in the top 10 for at least one more week. With 3 going recurrent possibly I look for Brett Young to finally break into the top 40 as one of the new entries. As for who else will enter I don’t know. A lot of good songs are sitting outside the top 40. Denning, Jake and Gone West just to name a few I’d love to see enter the top 40. Then there’s Zac Brown Band who could re-enter the top 40 possibly.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Aug 10, 2019 11:50:53 GMT -5
We may have a good chart cleaning this week. I think Maren, Morgan W & Blake should all possibly go recurrent. If that’s the case I see Dierks and FGL entering the top 10. Unless Runaway June passes up FGL these next couple days anyways. Eric I thought would go recurrent too but I look for him to hang in the top 10 for at least one more week. With 3 going recurrent possibly I look for Brett Young to finally break into the top 40 as one of the new entries. As for who else will enter I don’t know. A lot of good songs are sitting outside the top 40. Denning, Jake and Gone West just to name a few I’d love to see enter the top 40. Then there’s Zac Brown Band who could re-enter the top 40 possibly. I believe Eric has fallen below Blake in audience, but it's also entirely possible that Blake, Eric, and Morgan all remain on the chart this week. For all those songs to go recurrent, several songs would have had to pass them in billboard audience
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Jrod82
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Post by Jrod82 on Aug 10, 2019 12:28:15 GMT -5
We may have a good chart cleaning this week. I think Maren, Morgan W & Blake should all possibly go recurrent. If that’s the case I see Dierks and FGL entering the top 10. Unless Runaway June passes up FGL these next couple days anyways. Eric I thought would go recurrent too but I look for him to hang in the top 10 for at least one more week. With 3 going recurrent possibly I look for Brett Young to finally break into the top 40 as one of the new entries. As for who else will enter I don’t know. A lot of good songs are sitting outside the top 40. Denning, Jake and Gone West just to name a few I’d love to see enter the top 40. Then there’s Zac Brown Band who could re-enter the top 40 possibly. I believe Eric has fallen below Blake in audience, but it's also entirely possible that Blake, Eric, and Morgan all remain on the chart this week. For all those songs to go recurrent, several songs would have had to pass them in billboard audience The only reason I said Blake and Morgan is unless I missed them both have fallen from the Mediabase chart while Eric hasn’t.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Aug 10, 2019 12:57:55 GMT -5
I believe Eric has fallen below Blake in audience, but it's also entirely possible that Blake, Eric, and Morgan all remain on the chart this week. For all those songs to go recurrent, several songs would have had to pass them in billboard audience The only reason I said Blake and Morgan is unless I missed them both have fallen from the Mediabase chart while Eric hasn’t. That's because Mediabase has different rules. On Mediabase a song is sent recurrent after not having a bullet for three weeks regardless of position on chart. On billboard a song has to fall out of the top 10.
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Jrod82
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Post by Jrod82 on Aug 10, 2019 13:36:33 GMT -5
The only reason I said Blake and Morgan is unless I missed them both have fallen from the Mediabase chart while Eric hasn’t. That's because Mediabase has different rules. On Mediabase a song is sent recurrent after not having a bullet for three weeks regardless of position on chart. On billboard a song has to fall out of the top 10. That’s one of the reasons I hate Billboard these days. Songs sit in the top 10 forever or just have lengthy chart runs with little to no success. Morgan has sit in the top 10 for 16 weeks now. I think once they spend a certain amount of weeks in the top 10 without moving or hit #1 and pass that time frame they should go recurrent. I’d say 15 weeks should be the week limit for a song in the top 10.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Aug 10, 2019 14:06:49 GMT -5
I think Billboard should yank a song off the chart if it hasn't hit the top 20 after 26 weeks (half a year).
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Aug 11, 2019 16:05:56 GMT -5
1. Beer Never Broke My Heart 2. All To Myself 3. Rearview Town 4. The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home 5. Raised On Country 6. Knockin' Boots 7. God's Country 8. Whiskey Glasses 9. Southbound 10. Living 11. Talk You Out Of It 12. I Don't Know About You 13. Buy My Own Drinks 14. What Happens In a Small Town 15. Love You Too Late 16. We Were 17. Tip of My Tongue 18. Prayed For You 19. Good Vibes 20. Every Little Thing
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Jrod82
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Post by Jrod82 on Aug 17, 2019 18:35:07 GMT -5
So what are the chances that Blake or Morgan go recurrent this Monday? I know Blake’s new single should debut big but I doubt it’s debut is going to have any effect on God’s Country going recurrent.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Aug 18, 2019 7:44:18 GMT -5
So what are the chances that Blake or Morgan go recurrent this Monday? I know Blake’s new single should debut big but I doubt it’s debut is going to have any effect on God’s Country going recurrent. Probably not. I don’t think Blake’s new one will debut as big though, probably more like knocking boots
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Jrod82
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Post by Jrod82 on Aug 18, 2019 11:02:09 GMT -5
So what are the chances that Blake or Morgan go recurrent this Monday? I know Blake’s new single should debut big but I doubt it’s debut is going to have any effect on God’s Country going recurrent. Probably not. I don’t think Blake’s new one will debut as big though, probably more like knocking boots So you think Morgan will go recurrent if Blake don’t?
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Aug 18, 2019 11:04:14 GMT -5
Probably not. I don’t think Blake’s new one will debut as big though, probably more like knocking boots So you think Morgan will go recurrent if Blake don’t? Blake is more likely to go recurrent than Morgan, but I don't think either of them will go recurrent.
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Jrod82
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Post by Jrod82 on Aug 20, 2019 8:21:51 GMT -5
I have to say I’m worried about FGL and Runaway June’s chances at cracking the top 10 and the Brantley/Lindsay duet is slightly worrying me too. However I think they’re going to have a better chance than the other 2 at making it. Cole passed Runaway June this week and I have a feeling others will too in the next coming weeks.
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Sept 1, 2019 10:11:51 GMT -5
I heard “Tennessee Whiskey” by Chris Stapleton on CT40 a little while ago. Kingsley was talking about how George Strait rejected the song that would later be sung by George Jones.
The song being played on CT40 must give a song lots of extra spins right?
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Post by lady𝓐fan on Sept 15, 2019 13:03:08 GMT -5
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Jrod82
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Post by Jrod82 on Sept 15, 2019 17:01:54 GMT -5
Can we just forget the joke of a # 1 song from the past 2 weeks and just give 2 weeks to Justin and Dierks.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Oct 27, 2019 16:51:30 GMT -5
I am back with predictions after a long hiatus, a pretty simple version of the Top 60. Next week I will have the full version and really break the chart down. Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Cole Swindell "Love You Too Late" 2-3. Chris Janson "Good Vibes" 2-3. Matt Stell "Prayed For You" 4-5. Russell Dickerson "Every Little Thing" 4-5. Luke Combs "Even Though I'm Leaving" 6. Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell "What Happens In A Small Town" 7. Old Dominion "One Man Band" 8. Dierks Bentley "Living" (last week) 9. Keith Urban "We Were" 10. Thomas Rhett "Remember You Young" 11. Kenny Chesney "Tip Of My Tongue" 12. Lady Antebellum "What If I Never Get Over You" 13. Jon Pardi "Heartache Medication" 14. Dustin Lynch "Ridin Roads" 15-16. Miranda Lambert "It All Comes Out In The Wash" 15-16. Sam Hunt "Kinfolks" 17. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber "10,000 Hours" 18-19. Jimmie Allen "Make Me Want To" 18-19. Tim McGraw "Thought About You" (last week?) 20-21. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton "Dive Bar" (last week?) 20-21. Jason Aldean "We Back" 22. Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins "Hell Right" 23-24. Ingrid Andress "More Hearts Than Mine" 23-24. Luke Bryan "What She Wants" (New!) 25. Kelsea Ballerini "Homecoming Queen" 26. Midland "Mr. Lonely" 27. Kane Brown "Homesick" 28. Jordan Davis "Slow Dance In A Parking Lot" 29. Ryan Hurd "To A T" 30. Brett Young "Catch" 31. Maren Morris "The Bones" 32. Jake Owen "Homemade" 33. Riley Green "I Wish Grandpa's Never Died" 34. Trisha Yearwood "Every Girl In This Town" 35. Scotty McCreery "In Between" 36. Travis Denning "After A Few" 37. Dylan Scott "Nothing to Do Town" 38. Caylee Hammack "Family Tree" 39. Michael Ray "Her World or Mine" 40. LoCash "One Big Country Song" 41. Gone West "What Could've Been" 42. Florida Georgia Line "Blessings" 43-44. Morgan Wallen "Chasing You" 43-44. Gabby Barrett "I Hope" 45. Billy Currington "Details" 46. Eric Church "Monsters" 47. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice "I Hope You’re Happy Now" 48-51. Chase Rice "Lonely If You Are" 48-51. Justin Moore "Why We Drink" 48-51. Hootie & The Blowfish "Hold On" 48-51. Chris Young "Drowning" 52. Maddie & Tae "Die From a Broken Heart" 53. George Strait "The Weight of The Badge" 54. Eli Young Band "Break It In" 55. Rayne Johnson "Front Seat" 56-57. Caroline Jones "Chasing Me" 56-57. Rodney Atkins "Thank God For You" 58. Lauren Alaina "Getting Good" 59. Dillon Carmichael "I Do For You" (Re-Entry!) 60. Jon Langston "Now You Know" (Re-Entry!)
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Nov 3, 2019 17:43:40 GMT -5
A more detailed predictions with explanations and commentary. Hope everyone enjoys. Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Russell Dickerson “Every Little Thing” 2. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” 3-5. Chris Janson “Good Vibes” 3-5. Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell “What Happens In A Small Town” 3-5. Matt Stell “Prayed For You” 6. Old Dominion “One Man Band” 7-9. Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” 7-9. Keith Urban “We Were” 7-9. Cole Swindell “Love You Too Late” (last week) 10. Kenny Chesney “Tip Of My Tongue” 11-12. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” 11-12. Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” 13-14. Dustin Lynch “Ridin’ Roads” 13-14. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” 15-16. Miranda Lambert “It All Comes Out In The Wash” 15-16. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber “10,000 Hours” 17. Jason Aldean “We Back” 18-19. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” 18-19. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” 20. Tim McGraw “Thought About You” (last week?) 21. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” 22. Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins “Hell Right” 23-26. Midland “Mr. Lonely” 23-26. Kane Brown “Homesick” 23-26. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” 23-26. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen?” 27-28 Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” 27-28. Brett Young “Catch” 29. Ryan Hurd “To a T” 30. Maren Morris “The Bones” 31. Jake Owen “Homemade” 32. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 33. Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town” 34-35. Travis Denning “After A Few” 34-35. Scotty McCreery “In Between” 36-38. Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” 36-38. LoCash “One Big Country Song” 36-38. Gone West “What Could’ve Been” 39. Michael Ray “Her World Or Mine” 40-41. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” 40-41. Dylan Scott “Nothing To Do Town” (last week?) 42. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” 43-45. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 43-45. Eric Church “Monsters” 43-45. Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On” 46-47. Morgan Wallen “Chasin’ You” 46-47. Billy Currington “Details” 48-49. Chris Young “Drowning” 48-49. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” 50. Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” 51-52. George Strait “The Weight of The Badge” 51-52. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” 53. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” 54-55. Eli Young Band “Break It In” 54-55. Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” 56-59. Dillon Carmichael “I Do For You” 56-59. Jameson Rodgers “Some Girls” (New!) 56-59. Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” 56-59. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” 60. Jon Langston “Now You Know”
New and Active Section Caroline Jones “Chasin’ Me” Lainey Wilson “Dirty Looks” Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” Runaway June “Head Over Heels” LANco “What I See” Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone”
Going Recurrent or Drop Outs Dierks Bentley “Living” Peak: #1 (1 week) 35 Weeks
Commentary Russell Dickerson picks up his third straight career radio #1 single with “Every Little Thing” in the songs 48th week similar to last week’s #1. In the runner up is Luke Combs with his absolute mega smash song “Even Though I’m Leaving”, unlike Russell Dickerson, Luke Combs is white hot in terms of momentum as he nears his 7th #1 and I expect Luke Combs to be spending multiple weeks at #1 like most of his other previous singles. Falling songs from Chris Janson and Matt Stell look to fall in the range of the Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell duet as they begin their push to #1 this upcoming week. If I had to guess, I say “What Happens In A Small Town” gets the Mediabase #1 but I think Brantley and Lindsay will fall short on Billboard.
The song that should take over #1 when Luke Combs is done should be fellow Sony label mate Old Dominion with their biggest hit “One Man Band. Thomas Rhett really got strong Top 10 conversions with “Remember You Young” who should probably pass the slower moving Keith Urban. Cole Swindell has a very hard fall after hitting #1 last week, look for him to be out of the Top 10 next week and expect either Jon Pardi or Lady Antebellum to replace him, even as a huge fan of Cole Swindell and “Love You Too Late”, that song did not deserve #1, not the most undeserving but still no. Kenny Chesney enters the Top 10 with “Tip Of My Tongue” replacing Dierks Bentley who should go recurrent this week with “Living”.
Lady Antebellum continues to move more slow and steady with “What If I Never Get Over You” while Jon Pardi has really begun to pick up the pace with “Heartache Medication”. Other fast moving songs from Dustin Lynch, Sam Hunt, Dan + Shay, and Jason Aldean continue to have good prospects moving forward as all four look like very likely #1 contenders.
Meanwhile the slower songs in the teens continue to tread water and stay afloat but I do not expect any of them to make the Top 10. First up, Miranda Lambert and since her album just came out I do expect “It All Comes Out In The Wash” to soon wave the white flag here real soon. Others include Jimmie Allen and Tim McGraw who songs are really starting to age at this point and really horrid sales with their latest singles, and Garth Brooks/Blake Shelton who like Miranda Lambert has awful testing so far.
Ingrid Andress nears her first Top 20 with debut single “More Hearts Than Mine” which is looking good moving forward, Blake Shelton continues a slow but stable run with “Hell Right” as Midland flounders. Kane Brown and Jordan Davis both got nice audience boosts from their songs and both should probably sneak ahead of Kelsea Ballerini who unexpectedly stopped this week with her latest single. Luke Bryan has a minor iHeartMedia hangover week as Brett Young sneaks ahead of Ryan Hurd and lastly Maren Morris sneaks into the Top 30 with “The Bones”.
Below the Top 30, Jake Owen and Riley Green wait for an opening to get themselves in. Trisha Yearwood continues her months long consistency of sputtering around in the 30s as older songs from Scotty McCreery and Travis Denning are starting to inch closer. However, I don’t feel confident in any three of “Every Girl In This Town”, “After A Few”, or “In Between” prospects as none of the three are really popular at all in the latter two or in Trisha Yearwood’s case being stuck in the 30s for what feels like forever now. Gabby Barrett and Gone West (CT40 Boosted) did really well this week with each of their debut singles, while LoCash, Michael Ray, and Caylee Hammack has slow weeks and Dylan Scott is looking about done but should get a grace week.
In the 40s, Carly Pearce & Lee Brice have really hit the acceleration button with their duet “I Hope You’re Happy Now”, good week for Florida Georgia Line, Eric Church, and Hootie & The Blowfish. Morgan Wallen had a bit of a setback as “Chasing You” loses traction. Chase Rice and Chris Young get solid footing in the Top 50, while Maddie & Tae rebound somewhat after “Die From A Broken Heart” had a pretty disastrous week last week.
Finally in the 50s, Rayne Johnson had a great week as his chart run remains a mystery overall, the other highlights Lauren Alaina really closed the gap between her and Eli Young Band as “Getting Good” continues to show real promising radio prospects and new artist Jameson Rodgers should finally debut with his debut single “Some Girls”.
Cole Swindell is a lock to go recurrent next week and hopefully at least one of Tim McGraw or Dylan Scott can join him as well. Next week I expect Carrie Underwood to debut with “Drinking Alone”, probably Top 50 would be my very early estimate. Also do not be shocked if at least one of LANco, Chris Lane, or Runaway June pressure out some of the weaker songs at the bottom of the chart (Rodney Atkins, Jon Langston, and Kip Moore).
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Nov 3, 2019 18:32:59 GMT -5
I'm glad you're back in the predicting business raylatch98. As I said before, it was appointment reading. Kurt will cut you a check.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Nov 10, 2019 17:45:14 GMT -5
A more detailed predictions with explanations and commentary. Hope everyone enjoys. Also for this week I did how many positions each song is projected to gain or lose within range as well for all the songs that look to have a close finish. Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell “What Happens In A Small Town” (+2) 2. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” (0) 3-4. Old Dominion “One Man Band” (+1 to +2) 3-4. Russell Dickerson “Every Little Thing” (-2 to -3) 5-7. Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” (+1 to +3) 5-7. Chris Janson “Good Vibes” (-1 to -3) 5-7. Matt Stell “Prayed For You” (last week?) (+1 to -1) 8. Keith Urban “We Were” (-1) 9. Kenny Chesney “Tip Of My Tongue” (+1) 10-11. Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” (0 to +1) 10-11. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” (+1 to +2) 12. Dustin Lynch “Ridin’ Roads” (+1) 13. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” (+1) 14. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber “10,000 Hours” (+1) 15. Miranda Lambert “It All Comes Out In The Wash” (+1) 16-17. Jason Aldean “We Back” (0 to +1) 16-17. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” (+1 to +2) 18. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” (+1) 19. Kane Brown “Homesick” (+3) 20-21. Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins “Hell Right” (-1 to 0) 20-21. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” (0 to +1) 22. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” (+6) 23. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” (+2) 24. Midland “Mr. Lonely” (last week?) (-1) 25-26. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen?” (-2 to -1) 25-26. Ryan Hurd “To a T” (0 to +1) 27-28. Brett Young “Catch” (-1 to 0) 27-28. Maren Morris “The Bones” (+1 to +2) 29. Jake Owen “Homemade” (+1) 30. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” (+1) 31. Scotty McCreery “In Between” (+2) 32. Travis Denning “After A Few” (+2) 33-37. Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” (+2 to -2) 33-37. Dylan Scott “Nothing To Do Town” (-1 to +3) 33-37. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” (+2 to +6) 33-37. LoCash “One Big Country Song” (+1 to +5) 33-37. Michael Ray “Her World Or Mine” (0 to +4) 38. Eric Church “Monsters” (+3) 39. Gone West “What Could’ve Been” (+1) 40. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” (+2) 41. Morgan Wallen “Chasin’ You” (+3) 42. Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On” (+1) 43. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” (+2) 44-45. Billy Currington “Details” (+1 to +2) 44-45. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” (+2 to +3) 46-47. Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone” (New!) 46-47. Chris Young “Drowning” (+1 to +2) 48-49. Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” (0 to +1) 48-49. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” (+1 to +2) 50. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” (+1) 51-52. Eli Young Band “Break It In” (+1 to +2) 51-52. Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” (+2 to +3) 53. Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” (+2) 54.56. Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” (New!) 54-56. LANco “What I See” (New!) 54-56. George Strait “The Weight of The Badge” (last week?) (-2 to -4) 57-60. Dillon Carmichael “I Do For You” (-1 to -4) 57-60. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” (0 to -3) 57-60. Jon Langston “Now You Know” (+1 to -2) 57-60. Jameson Rodgers “Some Girls” (+2 to -1)
New and Active Section Little Big Town “Over Drinking” Runaway June “Head Over Heels” Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” Luke Combs featuring Brooks & Dunn “1,2 Many” Cody Johnson “Nothin On You” Thompson Square “Masterpiece
Going Recurrent or Drop Outs Cole Swindell “Love You Too Late” Peak: #1 Weeks: 49 (LW: 9) Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town” Peak: #21 Weeks: 22 (LW: 32) Caroline Jones “Chasin Me” Peak: #54 Weeks:12 (LW: 60)
Commentary/Highlights This is a week that can be best described as songs moving to a new peak (for the most part) but the actual audience gains tend to be very lackluster in of themselves.
To start off Brantley Gilbert should score his first #1 since “One Hell Of An Amen” back a little over 4 years ago with “What Happens In A Small Town”. His duet partner Lindsay Ell also picks up her first #1 with this song as well. I’d expect both artists to have new singles within the next couple of months. Huge singles from Luke Combs and Old Dominion look to take over the #1 spot next week and my gut tells me both songs will spend multiple weeks at #1. This is bad news for Keith Urban especially as “We Were’ is back to spinning its wheels as Thomas Rhett makes the pass.
Lady Antebellum should pick up their first Billboard Top 10 since “You Look Good” in 2017, I want to believe that “What If I Never Get Over You” can get the trio to #1 but with them hosting CCUSA next week I do have a bit of doubt unfortunately. Jon Pardi looks to be just outside the Top 10 as “Heartache Medication” continues to do well. Despite only gaining 1 spot, Dustin Lynch had one of the best weeks with “Ridin Roads” as Dustin Lynch really closed the gap between him and Lady Antebellum/Jon Pardi, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dustin Lynch pass at least one of them next week.
Despite getting back into the Top 15 I do think Miranda Lambert has about waved the white flag as Miranda has lost a good chunk of audience the past couple of days. “It All Comes Out In The Wash” should get a couple of weeks minimum however as Miranda Lambert is still under 20 weeks. An unexpected great week for Jimmie Allen while Kane Brown surges into the Top 20 with “Homesick” as both Blake Shelton/Trace Adkins & Ingrid Andress battle for the last spot in the Top 20. Slight odds to “Hell Right” but it is a coin flip between those two.
Luke Bryan storms through the 20s unsurprisingly, while singles from Jordan Davis, Maren Morris, and to a lesser extent Brett Young (despite positioning) do really well this week. Meanwhile Kelsea Ballerini for a second week and per usual Ryan Hurd and Midland struggle with their latest singles. Riley Green should replace Cole Swindell in the Top 30 this week with “I Wish Grandpas Never Died”.
In the 30s Scotty McCreery and Travis Denning lean closer into the Top 30 with “In Between” and “After A Few” respectively. The rest of the 30s is a mess as Caylee, Hammack, Dylan Scott, Gabby Barrett, LoCash, and Michael Ray look to all collide with each other. I will say the future is not looking good for Caylee Hammack, Dylan Scott (“Nothing To Do Town” will be on Week 43 on Tuesday), or LoCash. But I do think Michael Ray and Gabby Barrett especially should make it out of the 30s relatively unscathed. Despite moving up to #39, I am not optimistic about Gone West and their debut single “What Could’ve Been” outside of one week the gains have not been there for this song in a while.
Carrie Underwood should debut in the 40s with “Drinking Alone” as she is off to a very fast start as expected and should probably enter the Top 40 next week. Only other highlight in the 40s is Morgan Wallen gaining some momentum back with “Chasin You”, and Carly Pearce & Lee Brice stay complacent as “I Hope You’re Happy Now” entered the Mediabase Top 40. New singles from LANco and Chris Lane should debut as George Strait really stumbles backwards this week especially, but besides the two huge debuts no songs in the 50s did particularly well.
Songs I see Leaving Soon Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell “What Happens In A Small Town” (I see this song falling like a rock next week) Russell Dickerson “Every Little Thing” Chris Janson “Good Vibes” Matt Stell “Prayed For You” Miranda Lambert “It All Comes Out In The Wash” Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” Midland “Mr. Lonely” Travis Denning “After A Few” Dylan Scott “Nothing To Do Town”
Songs In Trouble (aka songs that need a quick turnaround) Lady Antebellum”What If I Never Get Over You” (I genuinely don’t know how much this song will last as the CCUSA appearance is throwing me off) Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” Ryan Hurd “To A T” Scotty McCreery “In Between” Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” Gone West “What Could’ve Been” Billy Currington “Details”
Songs I see Debuting Soon Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” Runaway June “Head Over Heels” Teddy Robb “Really Shouldn’t Drink Around You” Little Big Town “Over Drinking” Lainey Wilson “Dirty Looks” Noah Schnacky “I’ll Be The One”
Closing Thoughts So a slow week of gains despite many new chart peaks being made. The dam seems about to burst as the Top 10 is gonna have 4 freefalling songs next week not to mention very weak and struggling songs from Miranda Lambert, Midland, Garth/Blake, Jimmie Allen, Ryan Hurd, and Dylan Scott. Hopefully we get a huge housecleaning next week but I am not gonna expect it unfortunately.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Nov 10, 2019 20:33:31 GMT -5
raylatch98 I wouldn't read too much into Lady A hosting CCUSA. They obviously did that to line up with the release of their new album more so than the peak of "What If I Never Get Over You," which I think they'll keep pushing through the end of the year and attempt to get it to #1. I don't see why they'd give up on it any time soon.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Nov 10, 2019 20:45:38 GMT -5
raylatch98 I wouldn't read too much into Lady A hosting CCUSA. They obviously did that to line up with the release of their new album more so than the peak of "What If I Never Get Over You," which I think they'll keep pushing through the end of the year and attempt to get it to #1. I don't see why they'd give up on it any time soon. Yeah if I were the label I’d keep pushing since releasing anything before the new year would probably not be worth it.
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Sugar Rush
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Post by Sugar Rush on Nov 10, 2019 21:24:24 GMT -5
Really sad about Miranda, 'IACOITW' is such a great song & is such a refreshing tune to hear on country radio. It's sad that they have turned their backs on her when Vice, Tin Man, We Should Be Friends and now this all deserved to go top ten.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Nov 17, 2019 23:42:59 GMT -5
Very late post tonight, sorry.
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” (+1) 2. Old Dominion “One Man Band” (+1) 3. Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” (+2) 4-6. Keith Urban “We Were” (+2 to +4) 4-6. Matt Stell “Prayed For You” (last week?) (0 to +2) {last week?} 4-6. Russell Dickerson “Every Little Thing” (-2 to 0) 7-8. Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” (+2 to +3) 7-8. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” (+3 to +4) 9. Kenny Chesney “Tip Of My Tongue” (0) 10-11. Dustin Lynch “Ridin’ Roads” (+1 to +2) 10-11. Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell “What Happens In A Small Town” {last week} (-10 to -9) 12. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” (+1) 13. Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber “10,000 Hours” (+1) 14. Miranda Lambert “It All Comes Out In The Wash” (+1) 15. Jason Aldean “We Back” (+1) 16. Jimmie Allen “Make Me Want To” (+1) 17-18. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” (0 to +1) 17-18. Kane Brown “Homesick” (+1 to +2) 19. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” (+3) 20. Maren Morris “The Bones” (+6) 21. Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins “Hell Right” (-1) 22-23. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” (-2 to -1) 22-23. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” (0 to +1) 24-26. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen?” (+2 to +4) 24-26. Ryan Hurd “To a T” (-1 to +1) 24-26. Brett Young “Catch” (+1 to +3) 27. Midland “Mr. Lonely” {last week?} [45% chance of going recurrent] (-3) 28. Jake Owen “Homemade” (+1) 29. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” (+1) 30-32. Scotty McCreery “In Between” (0 to +2) 30-32. Travis Denning “After A Few” (+1 to +3) 30-32. Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town” (-1 to +1) 33. Dylan Scott “Nothing To Do Town” (+1) 34. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” (+1) 35. LoCash “One Big Country Song” (+1) 36. Michael Ray “Her World Or Mine” (+1) 37. Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” [15% chance of going recurrent] (+1) 38. Eric Church “Monsters” (+1) 39-41. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” (+3 to +5) 39-41. Gone West “What Could’ve Been” (0 to +2) 39-41. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” (-1 to +1) 42-44. Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone” (+6 to +8!) 42-44. Morgan Wallen “Chasin’ You” (-1 to +1) 42-44. Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On” (-2 to 0) 45-46. Chris Young “Drowning” (+1 to +2) 45-46. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” (0 to +1) 47. Billy Currington “Details” (-2) 48-50. Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” (-1 to +1) 48-50. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” (0 to -2) 48-50. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” (+1 to +3) 51. George Strait “The Weight of The Badge” (+1) 52. Eli Young Band “Break It In” (+1) 53-55. LANco “What I See” (+3 to +5) 53-55. Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” (-1 to +1) 53-55. Jon Langston “Now You Know” (0 to +2) 56-57. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” (-1 to 0) 56-57. Dillon Carmichael “I Do For You” (0 to +1) 58-59. Runaway June “Head Over Heels” (New!) 58-59. Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” (New!) 60. Caroline Jones “Chasin Me” (0)
New and Active Section Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” Lainey Wilson “Dirty Looks” Teddy Robb “Really Shouldn’t Be Drinking Alone” Haley & Michaels “Hail Mary” Thompson Square “Masterpiece” P!nk & Chris Stapleton “Love Me Anyway”
Going Recurrent or Drop Outs Chris Janson “Good Vibes” Peak: #1 Weeks: 37 (Last Week: #7) Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” Peak: #54 Weeks: 4 (Last Week: #59)
Commentary/Highlights This week will just be quick highlights so I am just gonna give a few standout songs for each section (1 to 10, 11 to 20, so on and so forth) as I am fairly busy.
So to start off in the Top 10, Luke Combs easily takes the top spot, with Old Dominion and Thomas Rhett looking next in line for the crown. Lady Antebellum off the album boost really made a lot of headway with their as did Jon Pardi, with Brantley Gilbert/Lindsay Ell spending their last week on the chart after hitting #1 last week.
In the teens, everyone really remained stagnant, Miranda Lambert did have an unexpected surge near the end of the week, but the future is still bleak for her and the latest from Jimmie Allen. Kane Brown had yet another great week and looks prime to pass Garth Brooks. Meanwhile strong conversions have really launched both Maren Morris and Luke Bryan forward into the Top 20.
Below the Top 20, Blake Shelton/Trace Adkins look to get pushed out of the Top 20 as he along with Ingrid Andress struggle this week. Kelsea Ballerini sees a bit of a rebound as Midland is teetering very close to going recurrent, but my gut tells me Billboard will grant them a grace week as Trisha Yearwood, Scotty McCreery, and Travis Denning duke it out for the last Top 30 spot.
In the 30s and 40s, good weeks for the following artists in terms of gains and their latest singles: Gabby Barrett, Carly Pearce/Lee Brice, Carrie Underwood, the rest of the songs continue to hang in there and stayed very stagnant in terms of gains. Lastly in the 50s LANco is off to a fast start, as new songs from Chris Lane and Runaway Jue should enter the chart (the latter getting added by the Cumulus block this week).
Songs I see Leaving Soon Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell “What Happens In A Small Town” Russell Dickerson “Every Little Thing” Matt Stell “Prayed For You” Ryan Hurd “To A T” Midland “Mr. Lonely” Dylan Scott “Nothing To Do Town”
Songs In Trouble (aka songs that need a quick turnaround or are just floating by not doing anything for a while now) Keith Urban “We Were” Miranda Lambert “It All Comes Out In The Wash” Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town” Scotty McCreery “In Between” Travis Denning “After A Few” Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” Billy Currington “Details” Maddie & Tae “Die From a Broken Heart”
Songs I see Debuting or Returning Soon Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” Chris Janson “Done” Little Big Town “Over Drinking” Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” Jameson Rodgers “Some Girls”
Closing Thoughts Another slow week. Maybe next week in addition to Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell going recurrent we see some of these weaker songs that have been dead in the water for a while now like Midland and Dylan Scott.
See you next week.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Nov 24, 2019 22:56:03 GMT -5
Another week and a good house cleaning is always welcomed. Billboard Country Airplay Top 60
1. Luke Combs “Even Though I’m Leaving” 2. Old Dominion “One Man Band” 3. Thomas Rhett “Remember You Young” 4. Keith Urban “We Were” 5-8. Chris Janson Good Vibes” (last week?) 5-8. Jon Pardi “Heartache Medication” 5-8. Lady Antebellum “What If I Never Get Over You” 5-8. Dustin Lynch “Ridin Roads” 9. Kenny Chesney “Tip Of My Tongue” 10. Dan + Shay & Justin Beiber “10,000 Hours” 11. Sam Hunt “Kinfolks” 12. Jason Aldean “We Back” 13. Jimmie Alen “Make Me Want To” 14-16. Luke Bryan “What She Wants Tonight” 14-16. Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton “Dive Bar” 14-16. Kane Brown “Homesick” 17-18. Maren Morris “The Bones” 17-18. Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins “Hell Right” 19-21. Jordan Davis “Slow Dance In A Parking Lot” 19-21. Ingrid Andress “More Hearts Than Mine” 19-21. Brett Young “Catch” 22. Kelsea Ballerini “Homecoming Queen” 23. Ryan Hurd “To A T” 24. Jake Owen “Homemade” 25. Miranda Lambert “It All Comes Out In The Wash” 26. Riley Green “I Wish Grandpas Never Died” 27. Travis Denning “After A Few” 28. Scotty McCreery “In Between” 29-30. Trisha Yearwood “Every Girl In This Town” 29-30. Gabby Barrett “I Hope” 31-32. LoCash “One Big Country Song” 31-32. Michael Ray “Her World Or Mine” 33. Eric Church “Monsters” 34-35. Caylee Hammack “Family Tree” 34-35. Carly Pearce & Lee Brice “I Hope You’re Happy Now” 36-38. Gone West “What Could’ve Been” 36-38. Morgan Wallen “Chasin You” 36-38. Hootie & The Blowfish “Hold On” 39-40. Chris Young “Drowning” 39-40. Florida Georgia Line “Blessings” 41-42. Chase Rice “Lonely If You Are” 41-42. Carrie Underwood “Drinking Alone” 43-44. Billy Currington “Details” 43-44. Justin Moore “Why We Drink” 45. Rayne Johnson “Front Seat” 46. Maddie & Tae “Die From A Broken Heart” 47. Rodney Atkins “Thank God For You” 48. Eli Young Band “Break It In” 49. Ashley McBryde “One Night Standards” 50-52. Jon Langston “Now You Know” 50-52. Dillon Carmichael “I’ll Do For You” 50-52. Kip Moore “She’s Mine” 53-54. Lauren Alaina “Getting Good” 53-54. Chris Lane “Big, Big Plans” 55-56. George Strait “The Weight Of The Badge” 55-56. Caroline Jones “Chasing Me 57-58. Runaway June “Head Over Heels” (New!) 57-58. Cody Johnson “Nothin On You” 59. LANco “What I See” (Re-Entry!) 60. Noah Schnacky “I’ll Be The One” (New!)
New and Active Section Granger Smith “That’s Why I Love Dirt Roads” Little Big Town “Over Drinking” Lainey Wilson “Dirty Looks” Brantley Gilbert “Fire’t Up” Chris Janson “Done” Stephanie Quayle “Whatcha Drinkin ‘Bout”
Going Recurrent or Drop Outs Russell Dickerson “Every Little Thing” Peak #1 Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell “What Happens In A Small Town” Peak #1 Dylan Scott “Nothing To Do Town” Peak #32
Commentary/Highlights Luke Combs spends a second week at #1 with “Even Though I’m Leaving”, look for him to begin his very slow descent next week as labelmates Old Dominion also spend a second week at #2 and should be next week’s #1, getting the bronze medal should be Thomas Rhett with “Remember You Young” if Old Dominion only goes for 1 week at #1, than easily expect Thomas Rhett to be #1 the following week if Old Dominion gets greedy with “One Man Band” than things could get dicey for “Remember You Young”.
Keith Urban nudges up another spot but hot singles from Jon Pardi (“Heartache Medication”) Lady Antebellum (“What If I Never Get Over You”) and Dustin Lynch (“Ridin Roads”) are starting to close the gap as “We Were” is really racking up the weeks on the chart. Kenny Chesney continues to flounder in the Top 10 as “Tip Of My Tongue” looks to be running out of energy and I imagine will be gone by the freeze or shortly afterwards. The hot selling duet “10,000 Hours” by Dan + Shay & Justin Beiber should replace Russell Dickerson in the Top 10 and I will not be shocked to see them pass Kenny Chesney next week.
Singles from Sam Hunt, Kane Brown and Luke Bryan continue to make quick work of the teens while singles from Jason Aldean, Jimmie Allen, and Garth Brooks/Blake Shelton continue the more slow and steady approach however the future is not bright for any of those 3 singles as Jimmie Allen’s song is ancient and in the case of Garth Brooks and Jason Aldean poor callout scores. The new Top 20 arrivals look like will be from Maren Morris who is on fire with “The Bones” also looking to fill out the last two slots will be either Jordan Davis, Ingrid Andress, and Brett Young.
Solid week for Kelsea Ballerini as she nears the Top 20, also nearing the Top 20 for the first time is Ryan Hurd however for him “To a T” is very slowly moving, good week for Riley Green as Miranda Lambert is officially done as “It All Comes Out In The Wash” falls through. Solid weeks for Riley Green "I Wish Grandpa's Never Died" and Travis Denning "After A Few", Scotty McCreery gets a bit more traction. Looking to finally re-enter the Top 30 after it debuted quite a few months ago Trisha Yearwood "Every Girl In This Town", joining her and entering the Top 30 should be newcomer Gabby Barrett with her debut single "I Hope".
In the 30s it was a good week of gains for Carly Pearce/Lee Brice "I Hope You’re Happy Now", Eric Church "Monsters", and Morgan Wallen "Chasin You" as all look to be primed to really take off really hard once they hit in the Top 30. Decent week for Gone West "What Could've Been", Caylee Hammack "Family Tree", and Michael Ray "Her World or Mine". Lastly in the 40s and 50s lots of slow weeks around for a lot of the songs despite the new peaks, biggest standouts are Ashley McBryde who benefits from KKBQ airplay gain. Kip Moore and Eli Young Band have solid weeks also look for Runaway June to debut this week with "Head Over Heels" and for newcomer Noah Schnacky to debut with his debut single.
Songs I see Leaving Soon Chris Janson "Good Vibes" Miranda Lambert "It All Comes Out In The Wash" Trisha Yearwood "Every Girl In This Town" George Strait "The Weight of The Badge"
Songs In Trouble (aka songs that need a quick turnaround or are just floating by not doing anything for a while now) Keith Urban "We Were" Kenny Chesney "Tip Of My Tongue" Jimmie Allen "Make Me Want To" Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton "Dive Bar" Ryan Hurd "To a T" Billy Currington "Details" Maddie & Tae "Die From a Broken Heart"
Songs I see Debuting or Returning Soon Lainey Wilson "Dirty Looks" Granger Smith "That's Why I Love Dirt Roads" Mitchell Tenpenny & Seaforth "Anything She Says" Little Big Town "Over Drinking" Chris Janson "Done"
Closing Thoughts I love a good house cleaning and it is so great to see the charts move a bit more, hopefully we do see more songs begin to give up as well. Next week Chris Janson should probably leave, but beyond that I do not know if another song will leave.
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