Billboard Country Airplay Top 601. Nate Smith “World On Fire”
2. Jelly Roll & Lainey Wilson “Save Me”
3. Chris Stapleton “White Horse”
4. Morgan Wallen “Thinking Bout Me” (last week?)
5-6. Dan + Shay “Save Me The Trouble” (last week)
5-6. Riley Green featuring Luke Combs “Different Round Here”
7. Luke Combs “Where The Wild Things Are”
8. Cody Johnson “The Painter”
9. Warren Zeiders “Pretty Little Poison”
10. Chris Janson “All I Need Is You”
11. Kane Brown “I Can Feel It”
12. HARDY “Truck Bed”
13. Chayce Beckham “23”
14. Parker McCollum “Burn It Down”
15. Conner Smith “Creek Will Rise”
16. Thomas Rhett featuring Morgan Wallen “Mamaw's House”
17. Scotty McCreery “Cab In A Solo”
18. Morgan Wallen featuring Eric Church “Man Made A Bar”
19-22. Jackson Dean “Fearless (The Echo)”
19-22. Jordan Davis “Tucson Too Late”
19-22. Lainey Wilson “Wildflowers and Wild Horses”
19-22. Carly Pearce featuring Chris Stapleton “We Don't Fight Anymore”
23. Gabby Barrett “Glory Days”
24. Tyler Hubbard “Back Then Right Now”
25-27. Brothers Osborne “Nobody's Nobody”
25-27. Zach Bryan featuring Kacey Musgraves “I Remember Everything”
25-27. Kenny Chesney “Take Her Home”
28. Ashley Cooke “Your Place”
29. Carrie Underwood “Out Of That Truck”
30. Jason Aldean “Let Your Boys Be Country”
31-32. Sam Hunt “Outskirts”
31-32. Megan Moroney “I'm Not Pretty”
33. Old Dominion & Megan Moroney “Can't Break Up Now”
34. Chase Matthew “Love You Again”
35. Chris Young “Young Love & Saturday Nights”
36. Bailey Zimmerman “Where It Ends”
37. Bryan Martin “We Ride”
38-39. Dillon Carmichael “Drinking Problems”
38-39. Jon Pardi & Luke Bryan “Cowboys & Plowboys”
40. Michael Ray featuring Meghan Patrick “Spirits and Demons”
41. Corey Kent “Something's Gonna Kill Me”
42-43. Parmalee “Gonna Love You”
42-43. Garth Brooks & Ronnie Dunn “Rodeo Man”
44. Brett Young “Dance With You”
45. Justin Moore “This Is My Dirt”
46. Zach Top “Sounds Like The Radio”
47. Joe Diffie featuring Post Malone “Pickup Man”
48. Dustin Lynch featuring Jelly Roll “Chevrolet”
49-50. Lady A “Love You Back”
49-50. Chris Lane “Find Another Bar”
51. Tyler Childers “In Your Love”
52. Hailey Whitters “I'm In Love”
53. Joe Nichols “Brokenhearted”
54-59. Jelly Roll “Halfway To Hell” (New!)
54-59. Cody Johnson “Dirt Cheap” (New!)
54-59. Ryan Larkins “King Of Country Music”
54-59. Huntergirl “Ain't About You”
54-59. Drew Baldridge ”She's Somebody's Daughter” (Reimagined) (last week?)
54-59. Ian Munsick & Cody Johnson “Long Live Cowgirls” (last week?)
60. Dylan Marlowe & Dylan Scott “Boys Back Home”
Bubbling Under
Matt Stell “Breaking In Boots”
Runaway June “Make Me Wanna Smoke”
Neon Union “This Side Of The Dirt”
Tim McGraw “One Bad Habit”
Maddie & Tae “Hearts They Didn't Break”
Going Recurrent/Drop Outs
George Birge “Mind On You” , Peak: #2, Weeks: 59 (Last Week: 4)
Eli Young Band & George Birge “Amy's Back In Austin”, Peak: #59, Weeks: 1 (Last Week: 59)
Commentary
I figured I'd ought to bring this back since this week I do have a lot to say.
Starting out at the top of the chart, we have Nate Smith spending his sixth week at #1 with “World On Fire” which continues to rule at #1 thanks to excellent callout scores, a bit of good luck with ”Save Me” not even attempting for the #1 during the holiday season, and given its losses beginning this week, it is pretty clearly going to be a slow faller on country radio. Speaking of “Save Me”, it continues its painfully slow fall down the chart and should spend another week in the runner up position for Jelly Roll and Lainey Wilson. Now the next challenger for #1 to finally unseat Nate Smith, should be “White Horse” by Chris Stapleton. I am kind of iffy on whether it makes it to #1 at least on Billboard. Mediabase should be fine, but I have Chris Stapletom around 9 million in audience behind Nate Smith as of today. It's not impossible but Nate Smith is definitely going to need lose more than what he is, for “White Horse” to have a shot at the Billboard #1. Rounding out the Top 5 should be Morgan Wallen “Thinking Bout Me” which continues to hang around but stands a decent chance of going recurrent if “Thinking Bout Me” falls below the Top 10 in spins. What should fall below that threshold is Dan + Shay “Save Me The Trouble” which will spend its last week at #5 or #6 depending if Riley Green/Luke Combs sneak ahead with “Different Round Here”.
In the Top 10, Luke Combs continues to get closer to the Top 5, as he and especially Cody Johnson “The Painter” and the debut single from Warren Zeiders “Pretty Little Poison” continue to gain very strong Top 10 conversions. I'd be shocked if any of them missed out on a Top 2 finish or worse on Billboard. However the weak link that has emerged from the Top 10, is Chris Janson “All I Need Is You” which while not doing horribly on radio is getting left behind. I do think Janson has enough in the tank to at least score a Top 5 finish, but given the fact his push week begins a week from tomorrow, I don't think he's getting the Billboard #1 and I think even Mediabase may take some luck.
Outside of the Top 10, Kane Brown holds off Hardy for one more week, but I do think this time next week “Truck Bed” will be ahead of “I Can Feel It” as Kane Brown has had a tepid start since the new year with his latest single. Chayce Beckham “23”, Parker McCollum “Burn It Down”, Conner Smith “Creek Will Rise”, Thomas Rhett/Morgan Wallen “Mamaw's House”, and Scotty McCreery “Cab In A Solo” each should move up a spot each on the chart with Chayce Beckham, Parker McCollum, Rhett/Wallen, and Scotty McCreery looking strong this week. Same can't be said for Conner Smith who struggled to gain much traction this week and is starting to fall behind. Morgan Wallen and Eric Church's duet “Man Made A Bar” continues to gain more, as expected. The last two Top 20 spots look to be between Jackson Dean, Jordan Davis, Lainey Wilson, and Carly Pearce/Chris Stapleton. Besides “Fearless” though, I do think each of these songs have a fair amount of longevity to them radio wise. As for “Fearless”, I still don't think this hits Top 10, but this week was fine enough to keep it afloat.
In the 20s, Gabby Barrett continues to near the Top 20 with “Glory Days”, while Tyler Hubbard picks up more momentum with “Back Then Right Now”. The last Top 25 spot should be between Brothers Osborne with “Nobody's Nobody” which continues to stall out in the 20s. I think it can hang in there for a few more weeks, but they have hit an absolute wall. Mega streamer “I Remember Everything” finally has an overdue week of great gains, and is back in the mix to have some staying power on radio. Slow week for Kenny Chesney and “Take Her Home” but nothing concerning and with the album announcement this song should be fine. Ashley Cooke continues to do well with OTV boosted “Your Place” as she should hit #28 in only Week 5. Carrie Underwood will be spending another week at #29 with “Out Of That Truck”, and finally Jason Aldean should round out the Top 30 with “Let Your Boys Be Country” as it continues to gain at a solid pace.
In the 30s singles from Sam Hunt, Chris Young, Bailey Zimmerman, and Bryan Martin, continue to do fairly well with Sam Hunt being a contender for the Top 30 next week with “Outskirts”. Megan Moroney continues to struggle to gain much traction with “I'm Not Pretty” while her duet with Old Dominion does better, it didn't gain a ton of audience this week and should be stuck at #33. As for Chase Matthew, this week was a back slide week of losses for “Love You Again” and the only thing preventing me from putting his song in the leaving soon category is the fact he just got 4 adds this week on Mediabase, but make no mistake “Love You Again” is in some hot water. The same can be said to a lesser extent with Dillon Carmichael and “Drinkin’ Problems” which got 5 radio adds this week on Mediabase but he is looking to spend a second consecutive week without a bullet. To end on a bright note, the duets of Jon Pardi and Luke Bryan, along with Michael Ray and Meghan Patrick should re-enter the Top 40.
Finally our bottom 20 in the 41 to 60 range, this may shock some, but I don't feel great for Corey Kent's latest singles longevity as “Something's Gonna Kill Me” is looking to spend a second week without a bullet, didn't get any adds this week and is one of the older songs in the bottom 30 (only Chase Matthew, Sam Hunt, and Dillon Carmichael are older). I do think this song can turn it around, but I'm not optimistic at all right now and I can easily see it getting caught in the crossfire. The Garth Brooks and Ronnie Dunn collaboration while not doing as bad as Corey Kent still had a rough week for “Rodeo Man”, and in the 50s singles from Joe Nichols, Drew Baldridge, and Ian Munsick struggled to gain anything this week and each should see set backs. Singles from Parmalee, Brett Young (solid rebound week for him), Justin Moore, Dustin Lynch (featuring Jelly Roll), Lady A, Tyler Childers, Hailey Whitters, Ryan Larkins, and Huntergirl all had pretty good weeks for their section of the chart and each are showing varying degrees of promise, while singles from Joe Diffie/Post Malone, Chris Lane, and Dylan Marlowe/Dylan Scott stay pretty dormant in terms of gains and position.
Finally the real songs standing out in the 40s and 50s are Zach Top “Sounds Like The Radio” which should gain 10 spots this week to #46, and continues its insanely promising start for a new artist and a debut single, Jelly Roll’s new single “Halfway To Hell” should debut ahead of its add date next Monday and as expected is gonna have a fast initial climb, and Cody Johnson “Dirt Cheap” should also debut thanks to one station giving it almost 500k in audience which should be enough to chart.
Songs I See Leaving Soon
Dan + Shay “Save Me The Trouble”
Morgan Wallen “Thinking Bout Me”
Brothers Osborne “Nobody's Nobody”
Corey Kent “Something's Gonna Kill Me”
Songs In Trouble
Kane Brown “I Can Feel It”
Megan Moroney “I'm Not Pretty”
Chase Mathew “Love You Again”
Garth Brooks & Ronnie Dunn “Rodeo Man”
Drew Baldridge “She's Somebody's Daughter (Reimagined)”
Ian Munsick & Cody Johnson “Long Live Cowgirls”
Songs I See Debuting/Returning Soon
Matt Stell “Breaking In Boots”
Neon Union “This Side Of The Dirt”
Tim McGraw “One Bad Habit”
Runaway June “Make Me Wanna Smoke”
Maddie & Tae “Hearts They Didn't Break”
Closing Thoughts
Next week Dan + Shay, and maybe the solo Morgan Wallen single should leave the chart (I am 100 percent sure Dan + Shay are spending their last week this week, while only 85% sure with Wallen). I would expect Tim McGraw to easily debut with “One Bad Habit” and probably one of Matt Stell or Neon Union joining him in new debuts next week, with Runaway June as a dark horse, and maybe Tigirlily Gold in the mix if “I Tried A Ring On'' has a good enough add date this Monday and/or singles from Ian Munsick and/or Drew Baldridge continue their downward momentum.