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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 22:35:16 GMT -5
This logjam just keeps getting worse. We now have 16 songs above the 20 million mark...normally there are only 10-11 songs above that mark. And song #17, "Boys 'Round Here", has 19.8 million.
I suspect we will begin to see some enormous pressure applied on this "block" of songs in the 8-17 range, from George through Blake. There is absolutely no way that this big group can keep going up with each song gaining 1-2 million per week, despite nearly all the artists in that group being superstar artists or close to it. The problem is that most of the songs are pretty young. I'd guess Brantley Gilbert will go recurrent very soon, and obviously Lee's IDYT will go recurrent next week. How George is going to keep trekking toward #1 is beyond me.
"Highway Don't Care" is really the only song I'm not worried about, as I figure that one can keep going up swiftly no matter what gets thrown its way. And I'd imagine call-out scores and downloads will play a part in who gets 'weeded out' of the group consisting of Eric, Brantley, Brad, Jason, TBP, Jake, Blake, and then the ZBB at #18, just a little below the group. Jason is already struggling mightily with "1994" and the Zac Brown Band is climbing noticeably slower than they've done in the past. I'd guess that Jake and Eric (and of course Brantley) will slow up next, since they are deep within their respective album cycles (Jake is on the 4th single; Eric is on #5), while Brad, TBP, and Blake are only on the 2nd singles from brand new albums.
What a mess of a chart, though. If anyone wants to know the reason why Gloriana and The Henningsens have slowed up, this is it. Easton Corbin might be in for a rough ride as well, though it's been much harder on Jana and Kelly. This all has a trickle-down effect as well. We need some of these songs to give in to the mounting pressure and drop off the chart, to relieve some of the pressure off the songs lower down.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Apr 25, 2013 9:55:23 GMT -5
I'm starting to believe Aldean's song won't even make the top 10. I suppose that's unlikely, and the song's way too young to be counted out at this point, but there are so many competitors for top 10 slots and this song does produce negative callout reactions.
We should get a bit of a housecleaning, with C Young trying hard to freefall off the BB chart by next Monday, and Jana Kramer almost certainly gone along with the RF song that is practically going to finish with no airplay at all next week. Lee Brice of course is leaving. Aaron Lewis and both Craigs are also contenders for recurrency, though they won't all go. It's hard to figure out Gloriana's future.
Still, these songs leaving will not end the trend toward so many songs with big audience impressions. I think that may be with us for the whole year. 22.8 million impressions should not leave a song outside the top 10, looking in.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2013 16:52:00 GMT -5
Here are my predictions for tomorrow's 5/11 Billboard Country Airplay chart. I have included projected audience totals for the top 50. Enjoy! :) 1) Thompson Square – “If I Didn’t Have You” (39.480) 2) Florida Georgia Line – “Get Your Shine On” (38.990) 3) Miranda Lambert – “Mama’s Broken Heart” (37.870) 4) Lady Antebellum – “Downtown” (36.370) 5-6) Darius Rucker – “Wagon Wheel” (33.220) 5-6) Kenny Chesney – “Pirate Flag” (33.130) 7) Tim McGraw (featuring Taylor Swift) – “Highway Don’t Care” (26.830) 8) George Strait – “Give It All We Got Tonight” (26.110) 9) Chris Young – “I Can Take It From There” (25.550) [last week]10) Brad Paisley – “Beat This Summer” (23.800) 11) Eric Church – “Like Jesus Does” (23.490) 12-13) Brantley Gilbert – “More Than Miles” (22.760) 12-13) Blake Shelton (featuring the Pistol Annies) – “Boys ‘Round Here” (22.620) 14) The Band Perry – “Done” (21.600) 15) Jason Aldean – “1994” (21.130) 16) Jake Owen – “Anywhere With You” (20.790) 17) Zac Brown Band – “Jump Right In” (17.880) 18) Luke Bryan – “Crash My Party” (14.940) 19-21) Gloriana – “Can’t Shake You” (14.220) 19-21) The Henningsens – “American Beautiful” (14.020) 19-21) Kip Moore – “Hey Pretty Girl” (13.880) 22) Easton Corbin – “All Over The Road” (11.940) 23) Hunter Hayes – “I Want Crazy” (11.430) 24) Carrie Underwood – “See You Again” (9.190) 25-26) Gary Allan – “Pieces” (8.780) 25-26) Brett Eldredge – “Don’t Ya?” (8.680) 27) Kelly Clarkson (featuring Vince Gill) – “Don’t Rush” (7.380) 28) Justin Moore – “Point At You” (6.380) 29-31) Sheryl Crow – “Easy” (5.680) 29-31) Randy Houser – “Runnin’ Outta Moonlight” (5.640) 29-31) Craig Morgan – “More Trucks Than Cars” (5.470) 32) Billy Currington – “Hey Girl” (5.060) 33) Craig Campbell – “Outta My Head” (4.760) 34-37) Tyler Farr – “Redneck Crazy” (3.380) 34-37) Charlie Worsham – “Could It Be?” (3.200) 34-37) Kacey Musgraves – “Blowin’ Smoke” (3.200) 34-37) Joel Crouse – “If You Want Some” (3.160) 38) Little Big Town – “Your Side Of The Bed” (2.930) 39) Rachel Farley – “Ain’t Easy” (2.380) 40-41) Parmalee – “Carolina” (2.060) 40-41) Maggie Rose – “Better” (2.040) 42) Phil Vassar – “Love Is Alive” (1.540) 43-45) Chris Janson – “Better I Don’t” (1.270) 43-45) Greg Bates – “Fill In The Blank” (1.200) 43-45) Thomas Rhett – “It Goes Like This” (1.200) [NEW!]46-48) Lennon & Maisy – “Ho Hey” (1.030) 46-48) Kix Brooks – “Complete 360” (1.030) 46-48) Pistol Annies – “Hush Hush” (1.000) 49-53) Jon Pardi – “Up All Night” (0.900) 49-53) Drake White – “The Simple Life” (0.850) 49-53) Katie Armiger – “Playin’ With Fire” 49-53) Tate Stevens – “Power Of A Love Song” 49-53) James Wesley – “Thank A Farmer” 54) Chris Cagle – “Dance Baby Dance” 55-57) Casey James – “The Good Life” 55-57) Lee Brice – “Parking Lot Party” [NEW!]55-57) Scotty McCreery – “See You Tonight” 58) Lonestar – “Maybe Someday” 59) Eric Paslay – “Friday Night” [NEW!]60) Krystal Keith – “Daddy Dance With Me” [NEW!]Dropping Off:- Lee Brice - "I Drive Your Truck" (#1 peak)
- Rascal Flatts - "Changed" (#20 peak)
- Jana Kramer - "Whiskey" (#25 peak)
- Aaron Lewis - "Forever" (#38 peak)
Comments:Thompson Square will pick up their 2nd #1 hit with "If I Didn't Have You", while fellow duo Florida Georgia Line looks to follow suit. The white hot FGL is going for their 2nd straight #1 with "Get Your Shine On" to start their career--they should jump up to #2, passing Miranda. Meanwhile, Kenny Chesney has picked up the pace a bit again but Darius Rucker is still moving more quickly; Rucker may very well edge ahead of Chesney for the last top 5 spot. George Strait continues his slow ascension but looks likely to be passed by Tim, Taylor, & Keith's "Highway Don't Care", which may not bode well for George. Finally, Brad Paisley looks likely to sneak ahead of Eric Church for the last top 10 spot. There's a pretty good chance that Chris Young may join Lee Brice and go recurrent, which would let both Eric and Brad into the top 10, but I think Chris might just barely hang on for one last week. Despite the crazy logjam and many more songs than normal above the 20 million mark, the one person who can't be slowed down is Blake Shelton. "Sure Be Cool If You Did" has only just gone recurrent from the top 10 and already "Boys 'Round Here" races toward the upper tier, making quick work of the latest offerings from TBP, Jason, and Jake. Jason's "1994" in particular is struggling--it's not done yet by any means but with an unusually high number of songs competing for the top 10, this may not have been the best time to release a polarizing tune like '94. The Zac Brown Band has had a pretty good week but Luke Bryan is closing in fast as his "Crash My Party" blasts into the top 20 in just its 3rd chart week. Newer acts Gloriana, The Henningsens, and Kip Moore continue to battle with each other for position. Easton Corbin is picking up steam once again, and Hunter Hayes continues his fast start. Carrie Underwood is also on a roll, and both Gary Allan and Brett Eldredge have really picked up the pace over the last couple of weeks as they stride towards the top 20. Kelly Clarkson, however, continues to spin her wheels. Justin Moore will surge into the top 30, likely joined by Sheryl Crow and Randy Houser, although Craig Morgan continues to battle and keep his top 30 hopes alive. Craig Campbell is also still hanging in there. Billy Currington and Tyler Farr are both on the accelerator but Charlie Worsham and Kacey Musgraves have hit a speed bump. Little Big Town should surge into the top 40, as should newcomer Rachel Farley with her debut "Ain't Easy". Parmalee and Maggie Rose may both find their way into the top 40 as well, but only if Chris Young goes recurrent. Otherwise, only 1 of the 2 will enter the top 40 this week. Phil Vassar and Chris Janson should pick up a few spots but Greg Bates continues to struggle immensely; his "Fill In The Blank" may not climb much further. Lennon & Maisy and the Pistol Annies should blast into the top 50, and Thomas Rhett's latest "It Goes Like This" is also looking at a very, very strong debut somewhere in the mid 40's. Jon Pardi, Drake White, Katie Armiger, and Chris Cagle have all had good weeks while James Wesley and Casey James have slowed up. Look for Lee Brice and Eric Paslay to score decent debuts, and it also seems likely that Krystal Keith will sneak on the chart, based off airplay only at Los Angeles' KKGO. Other contenders on the cusp of the top 60 include Gretchen Wilson, Weston Burt, Chase Rice, and Joe Nichols.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Jun 9, 2013 13:46:10 GMT -5
It looks like we could see a bit of a house cleaning this week. "Get Your Shine On" will leave for sure, as will "American Beautiful". I also think that "Can't Shake You" and "More Trucks Than Cars" (especially the latter) stand a good chance of leaving. Good timing too, with all of the big name releases about to impact.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Jun 9, 2013 15:06:31 GMT -5
It looks like we could see a bit of a house cleaning this week. "Get Your Shine On" will leave for sure, as will "American Beautiful". I also think that "Can't Shake You" and "More Trucks Than Cars" (especially the latter) stand a good chance of leaving. Good timing too, with all of the big name releases about to impact. Yeah I was looking at how there looks to be 4 from the top 30 that'll be off the chart tomorrow. I'm happy we're finally going to get that housecleaning we so desperatley needed lol Now I just hope that Maggie Rose doesn't get passed by too many songs and can come closer to the top 30!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 18:15:22 GMT -5
I'm sure we'll get the chart here shortly but without seeing it yet, it looks to me like we'll have a nice little batch of songs going recurrent tonight. Brad will be gone, and Gary Allan and Parmalee will likely be gone. Craig Campbell could leave too but they might give him a grace week. As much as I love his song, it's gotta be at the end of its rope here so hopefully BB will pull him. If not, then there's always next week..
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2014 5:32:39 GMT -5
I don't know if I'll being doing this regularly again--and I actually was going to post these yesterday (Saturday) since I had a relatively free weekend ahead of me, but then Mediabase decided not to update for 3 days--but here are some predictions for Monday's Billboard chart, the 2/15 issue. I've got projected Billboard audience numbers included as well (in millions of impressions, of course). I'm getting them up late, but consider it leisurely reading for your Monday morning :) If anyone else wants to post any chart predictions, you're more than welcome to do so in this thread! 1-2) Luke Bryan – “Drink A Beer” (43.410) 1-2) Eric Paslay – “Friday Night” (43.270) 3-4) Cole Swindell – “Chillin’ It” (42.000) 3-4) David Nail – “Whatever She’s Got” (41.900) 5) Jason Aldean – “When She Says Baby” (38.080) 6) Lady Antebellum – “Compass” (32.690) 7) Florida Georgia Line – “Stay” (28.550) [last week]8-9) Thompson Square – “Everything I Shouldn’t Be Thinking About” (26.940) 8-9) Blake Shelton – “Doin’ What She Likes” (26.720) 10) Frankie Ballard – “Helluva Life” (26.050) 11) Dierks Bentley – “I Hold On” (24.740) 12) Randy Houser – “Goodnight Kiss” (23.510) 13) Danielle Bradbery – “The Heart Of Dixie” (23.170) 14) Scotty McCreery – “See You Tonight” (22.350) 15) Jerrod Niemann – “Drink To That All Night” (18.120) 16-17) Eric Church – “Give Me Back My Hometown” (17.140) 16-17) Dan + Shay – “19 You + Me” (16.940) 18) Rascal Flatts – “Rewind” (15.250) 19-20) Brett Eldredge – “Beat Of The Music” (12.740) 19-20) Brad Paisley – “The Mona Lisa” (12.580) 21) Thomas Rhett – “Get Me Some Of That” (11.890) 22-23) Brantley Gilbert – “Bottoms Up” (11.390) 22-23) Justin Moore – “Lettin’ The Night Roll” (11.210) 24) Kip Moore – “Young Love” (10.830) 25) Keith Urban – “Cop Car” (9.780) 26) Hunter Hayes – “Invisible” (9.000) [NEW!]27-28) Josh Thompson – “Cold Beer With Your Name On It” (8.090) 27-28) Craig Morgan – “Wake Up Lovin’ You” (7.920) 29-30) Tyler Farr – “Whiskey In My Water” (5.860) 29-30) Sara Evans – “Slow Me Down” (5.690) 31) Tim McGraw – “Lookin’ For That Girl” (5.240) 32-34) Billy Currington – “We Are Tonight” (4.560) 32-34) Little Big Town – “Sober” (4.500) 32-34) Florida Georgia Line (featuring Luke Bryan) – “This Is How We Roll” (4.500) 35) Sheryl Crow – “Callin’ Me When I’m Lonely” (4.200) 36) George Strait – “I Got A Car” (3.790) 37-38) Leah Turner – “Take The Keys” (3.170) 37-38) Chris Young – “Who I Am With You” (3.090) 39-42) Gary Allan – “It Ain’t The Whiskey” (2.600) 39-42) Charlie Worsham – “Want Me Too” (2.590) 39-42) Austin Webb – “Slip On By” (2.590) [last week]39-42) Joe Nichols – “Yeah” (2.580) 43-44) Jake Owen – “Beachin’” (2.200) 43-44) Chase Rice – “Ready Set Roll” (2.100) 45-47) American Young – “Love Is War” (1.890) 45-47) Craig Campbell – “Keep Them Kisses Comin’” (1.800) 45-47) Will Hoge – “Strong” (1.690) 48) Toby Keith – “Shut Up And Hold On” (1.530) 49-52) The Cadillac Three – “The South” (1.290) 49-52) Lindsay Ell – “Trippin’ On Us” (1.260) 49-52) Kacey Musgraves – “Follow Your Arrow” (1.210) [last week]49-52) LoCash Cowboys – “Best Seat In The House” (1.120) 53-55) Eli Young Band – “Dust” (0.650) [NEW!]53-55) Jamie Lynn Spears – “How Could I Want More?” (0.630) 53-55) Blackjack Billy – “Get Some” (0.630) 56) Rodney Atkins – “Doin’ It Right” (0.570) [last week]57-60) Lucy Hale – “You Sound Good To Me” (0.480) [NEW!]57-60) Joel Crouse – “Why God Made Love Songs” (0.480) [NEW!]57-60) Maggie Rose – “Looking Back Now” (0.450) [NEW!]57-60) Easton Corbin – “Clockwork” (0.440) [NEW!]Thanks to @jf816 it's now much easier for me to predict the 45-60 part of the Billboard chart :) Anyway, here's how I see things shaping up! I forgot to check the RTT on Sunday but I still think Luke Bryan is going to come out ahead on Billboard, just barely (and honestly, after the massive 7 million push for Paslay on Mediabase this week, I'm glad he might come up short on Billboard). My projections have Luke finishing less than 200k ahead. But I'd feel more comfortable with that if I'd remembered to check the RTT on Sunday, which of course disappears after the clock hits midnight...silly me. I think Luke could even get a 2nd week at #1 before Cole takes over, and it's easy to see how Luke could've gotten 4 weeks at #1--DAB first hit #1 on Mediabase in the February 24 update before David Nail stole it away only a short day later. And since then, Luke has kept gaining, but UMG has put the focus on some of their newer acts, determined to get David and now Eric Paslay some time at #1. David got the #1 on both charts without too much of a substantial push, whereas Eric Paslay has gained more than 7 million on Mediabase this week and should gain close to 4 million on Billboard as well. Jason Aldean has had a strong week and "When She Says Baby" will be locked into the top 5, with "Compass" coming in at #6. A lot of other songs are poised to move up as well, thanks to a big housecleaning this week--we'll say goodbye to ZBB's "Sweet Annie", TBP's "Don't Let Me Be Lonely", Cassadee Pope's "Wasting All These Tears", and Jon Pardi's "Up All Night", along with Dustin Lynch's "Wild In Your Smile", which peaked several weeks back at #23 (and had a chart run weirdly similar to Kacey Musgraves' "Blowin' Smoke" and Jana Kramer's "Whiskey"). One song that decided to stay on for an extra week: Florida Georgia Line's "Stay". The colossal hit, a 4-week #1, has continued to show its staying power. Its decline has been slow, whereas other songs that labored up the chart, such as "Sweet Annie" and "Don't Let Me Be Lonely", have collapsed in spectacular fashion. There is a slight chance that "Stay" could go recurrent, but only if Dierks bumps it out of the top 10 in spins. I'll give "Stay" one more week. Thanks to the housecleaning, we'll welcome Thompson Square, Blake Shelton, and Frankie Ballard into the top 10. Blake has the chance to jump from #14 to #9, possibly up to #8, if he can sneak ahead of Keifer and Shawna. "Helluva Life" will become Frankie's first top 10 hit. Dierks Bentley has had a big week and should shoot up to #11, with Randy Houser blasting up to #12 and leapfrogging Danielle Bradbery in the process. Scotty McCreery continues to build steam, and with its likely move to #14, "See You Tonight" will officially become his highest-charting song at country radio, surpassing the #15 peak he saw with "I Love You This Big". Eric Church is on a roll, and if it weren't for Hunter Hayes, Eric would be the greatest gainer for the week. But as it stands, he'll still blast well into the top 20. Rascal Flatts will motor into the top 20 as well, in just their 4th week on the chart. Also new to the top 20: Brett Eldredge and Brad Paisley, with Valory label-mates Thomas Rhett, Brantley Gilbert, and Justin Moore not too far behind. For Brad, a move into the top 20 will surpass the #22 peak he had with his last single, "I Can't Change The World", although "The Mona Lisa" is still quite far off the pace we see for a typical Paisley chart run. Keith Urban's "Cop Car" will blast into the top 20, and Hunter Hayes' "Invisible" will see a Clear Channel-inflated debut much like we saw recently with Eric Church and Rascal Flatts, and too many before them. Veterans Craig Morgan and Sara Evans should return to the top 30. Tim McGraw's "Lookin' For That Girl" is doing fairly well, and it might gain another 1.5 million or so this week, but overall its performance looks a bit shaky compared to recent hits like "Felt Good On My Lips", "One Of Those Nights", "Highway Don't Care", and "Southern Girl". Could this be an early sign that some stations are feeling a bit hesitant with "Lookin' For That Girl"? In my opinion, I would say yes...but we'll have to wait and see. Florida Georgia Line's "This Is How We Roll" should move into the mid-30's, and George Strait should pick up a couple more spots, as "I Got A Car" continues to labor its way up the chart. Chris Young is top 40 bound, and it looks to me that the final 2 top 40 spots will be up for grabs between Gary Allan, Charlie Worsham, Austin Webb, and Joe Nichols. Of those 4, Austin is starting to go backwards and Billboard could actually send him recurrent, but his loss hasn't been too big so I'm inclined to believe he'll get a grace week. For songs outside the top 40, Jake Owen's "Beachin'" and American Young's "Love Is War" stand to gain a good bit of ground. Predicting debuts for this week is pretty tough, even though we've got at least 5 songs dropping off the chart...you'd think several others would be clamoring to get in, but most of them haven't made much progress just yet. It would've been a good week for Dylan Scott to finally get past #60, but instead it looks like he might fall back below #60. Only 400-500k might be needed to get on the chart and it doesn't look like Dylan will be able to quite make the cut. In recent weeks, as much as 700-850k has been needed just to sneak in the top 60, but this week it'll be lower. Based off the most recent Mediabase update, I predict the Eli Young Band to get in, with Lucy Hale, Joel Crouse, Maggie Rose, and Easton Corbin likely occupying the bottom 4 spots on the chart, although Easton's arch-nemesis Weston (heh) might be able to snag one of those spots. It looks to me like Dylan Scott, Kelleigh Bannen, Parmalee, and Chuck Wicks will remain just below the top 60 threshold.
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Feb 3, 2014 5:53:20 GMT -5
Luke & Hunter were on RTT Sunday.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2014 5:56:25 GMT -5
Luke & Hunter were on RTT Sunday. Thanks! That makes me feel more confident that Luke will be #1 then, since Eric Paslay almost certainly lost a spin on CC-USA yesterday (since he co-hosted with Lon back on the 26th) and therefore Eric probably won't have a very big update in the morning, if he gains anything at all. Luke will probably have the better update. Thanks again! :)
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Feb 9, 2014 0:41:03 GMT -5
I'll try this again this week....not going to be as good or as detailed as jhomes87, but here goes: (And in my defence, these are based on Saturday's 1-50 Mediabase data, and Friday's 51-lower data...still going to be awful though, haha) 1. Drink A Beer 2. Chillin' It 3. When She Says Baby 4. Compass 5. Whatever She's Got 6. Friday Night (last week) 7. Doin' What She Likes 8. Helluva Life 9. Everything I Shouldn`t Be Thinking About 10. I Hold On 11. Goodnight Kiss 12. See You Tonight 13. The Heart Of Dixie 14. Give Me Back My Hometown 15. Drink To That All Night 16. Rewind 17. 19 You + Me 18. The Mona Lisa 19. Beat Of The Music 20. Lettin' The Night Roll 21. Get Me Some Of That 22. Bottoms Up 23. Cop Car 24. Young Love 25. Automatic (highest debut) 26. Wake Up Lovin' You 27. Cold Beer With Your Name On It (last week?) 28. Whiskey In My Water 29. Lookin' For That Girl 30. Slow Me Down 31. This Is How We Roll 32. We Are Tonight 33. Sober 34. Invisible 35. Callin' Me When I'm Lonely 36. Want Me Too 37. Who I Am With You 38. I Got A Car 39. Take The Keys 40. Beachin' 41. Slip On By (last week?) 42. Yeah 43. It Ain't The Whiskey 44. Ready, Set, Roll 45. Keep Them Kisses Comin' 46. Strong 47. Love Is War 48. Dust 49. Clockwork 50. Shut Up And Hold On 51. The South 52. You Sound Good To Me 53. Get Some 54. Trippin' On Us 55. Why God Made Love Songs 56. Miss You (debut) 57. I Don't Dance (debut) 58. Us Again (debut) 59. Close Your Eyes (debut) 60. Smile That Smile
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2014 1:12:02 GMT -5
^Glad to see someone else participating! :) I ran through some numbers quick...ok, took me a couple of hours, but that's how I spend a Saturday night! My top 60 predictions, with projected Billboard audience numbers: 01) Luke Bryan – “Drink A Beer” (45.760) 02-03) Cole Swindell – “Chillin’ It” (42.780) 02-03) Jason Aldean – “When She Says Baby” (42.750) 04) David Nail – “Whatever She’s Got” (41.130) 05) Eric Paslay – “Friday Night” (38.300) 06) Lady Antebellum – “Compass” (36.820) 07-09) Blake Shelton – “Doin’ What She Likes” (30.760) 07-09) Thompson Square – “Everything I Shouldn’t Be Thinking About” (30.630) 07-09) Frankie Ballard – “Helluva Life” (30.630) 10-11) Dierks Bentley – “I Hold On” (27.750) 10-11) Randy Houser – “Goodnight Kiss” (27.610) 12) Scotty McCreery – “See You Tonight” (26.080) 13) Danielle Bradbery – “The Heart Of Dixie” (23.610) 14-15) Eric Church – “Give Me Back My Hometown” (19.560) 14-15) Jerrod Niemann – “Drink To That All Night” (19.520) 16) Dan + Shay – “19 You + Me” (19.030) 17) Rascal Flatts – “Rewind” (18.270) 18) Brett Eldredge – “Beat Of The Music” (15.300) 19) Brad Paisley – “The Mona Lisa” (14.500) 20-22) Thomas Rhett – “Get Me Some Of That” (13.440) 20-22) Brantley Gilbert – “Bottoms Up” (13.220) 20-22) Justin Moore – “Lettin’ The Night Roll” (13.100) 23-24) Kip Moore – “Young Love” (11.540) 23-24) Keith Urban – “Cop Car” (11.360) 25-26) Craig Morgan – “Wake Up Lovin’ You” (9.340) 25-26) Miranda Lambert – “Automatic” (9.200) [NEW!]27) Josh Thompson – “Cold Beer With Your Name On It” (8.000) 28-30) Sara Evans – “Slow Me Down” (6.800) 28-30) Tim McGraw – “Lookin’ For That Girl” (6.770) 28-30) Hunter Hayes – “Invisible” (6.600) 31-32) Tyler Farr – “Whiskey In My Water” (6.450) 31-32) Florida Georgia Line – “This Is How We Roll” (featuring Luke Bryan) (6.330) 33) Billy Currington – “We Are Tonight” (5.460) 34) Little Big Town – “Sober” (5.070) 35-36) Sheryl Crow – “Callin’ Me When I’m Lonely” (4.480) 35-36) Jake Owen – “Beachin’” (4.400) 37) George Strait – “I Got A Car” (3.900) 38-39) Charlie Worsham – “Want Me Too” (3.510) 38-39) Chris Young – “Who I Am With You” (3.380) 40) Leah Turner – “Take The Keys” (3.100) 41-42) Joe Nichols – “Yeah” (2.770) 41-42) Gary Allan – “It Ain’t The Whiskey” (2.750) [last week?]43) Austin Webb – “Slip On By” (2.500) [last week?]44-45) Chase Rice – “Ready, Set, Roll” (2.200) 44-45) Eli Young Band – “Dust” (2.110) 46-47) American Young – “Love Is War” (1.990) 46-47) Craig Campbell – “Keep Them Kisses Comin’” (1.910) 48) Will Hoge – “Strong” (1.820) 49) The Cadillac Three & Friends – “The South” (1.380) 50) Lindsay Ell – “Trippin’ On Us” (1.210) 51) Toby Keith – “Shut Up And Hold On” (1.100) [last week?]52) Easton Corbin – “Clockwork” (0.910) 53-54) LoCash Cowboys – “Best Seat In The House” (0.790) [last week]53-54) Lucy Hale – “You Sound Good To Me” (0.770) 55-56) Darius Rucker – “Miss You” (0.700) [NEW!]55-56) Joel Crouse – “Why God Made Love Songs” (0.700) 57-60) Blackjack Billy – “Get Some” (0.650) 57-60) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (0.650) [NEW!]57-60) Natalie Stovall & The Drive – “Baby Come On With It” (0.610) [NEW!]57-60) Lee Brice – “I Don’t Dance” (0.600) [NEW!]...Weston Burt - "Smile That Smile" (0.570) ...Maggie Rose - "Looking Back Now" (0.530) ...Chuck Wicks - "Us Again" (0.520) ...Big & Rich - "Look At You" (0.440) ...Kelleigh Bannen - "Famous" (0.380) Going Recurrent: Florida Georgia Line's "Stay", Kacey Musgraves' "Follow Your Arrow", Rodney Atkins' "Doin' It Right", and Jamie Lynn Spears' "How Could I Want More?"
Luke Bryan will easily get a 2nd week at #1...question is, can he get a 3rd? Capitol Nashville would probably have to really want it. Cole Swindell has been patiently waiting his turn, and with Jason Aldean jumping into the mix, it's hard to imagine the Warner Bros. team waiting another week. David Nail is falling surprisingly slowly while Eric Paslay is falling very hard after a monstrous push. It looks like Lady A will need one more week before they enter the top 5, and we've got a fierce battle below with Thompson Square, Blake Shelton, and Frankie Ballard. Dierks Bentley is first in line to take FGL's top 10 spot but Randy Houser is right on his heels. Scotty McCreery has had a big week while Danielle Bradbery has slowed to a crawl. Look for another week at #13 for Danielle, with Scotty leap-frogging her and jumping to #12. Jerrod Niemann and Dan + Shay continue their hot starts but Eric Church and Rascal Flatts may prove too much to handle. And it looks like 3 Valory artists--Thomas Rhett, Brantley Gilbert, and Justin Moore--will be battling it out for the last top 20 spot. Kip Moore continues to move a bit slower while Keith Urban's "Cop Car" is picking up steam. Craig Morgan has also had a nice couple of weeks after a very slow climb into the top 30. Hunter Hayes will suffer from the 2nd week Clear Channel hangover, so look for "Invisible" to lose several million AI's and fall a few spots. Miranda Lambert's "Automatic" has been the recipient of hourly Clear Channel airplay this week, so she'll see a big top 30 debut as well. I've got her at #26, although she could come in at #25 if she can sneak ahead of Craig Morgan. A #27 debut is also possible if she slows up a little bit and slots in behind Josh Thompson. Tim McGraw is off to a rather lackluster start. He should be top 30 after just a few weeks but he's certainly not going at the pace as such songs like "Bottoms Up" and "Cop Car". Little Big Town, Sheryl Crow, and George Strait continue to move very slowly, and Gary Allan is likely to spend his 20th chart week still outside the top 40. Charlie Worsham has had a pretty good week, though, and Jake Owen has had a great week which should send "Beachin'" blasting into the top 40. Most other songs outside the top 40 are moving very slowly, including those by Chase Rice, Craig Campbell, and Will Hoge, and it looks like both Toby Keith and the LoCash Cowboys have peaked. This will likely be the last week for LoCash. Toby might be able to squeeze out one more but it's really a moot point. Meanwhile, Eli Young Band's "Dust" is off to a pretty good start, and I've got Darius Rucker and Parmalee debuting nicely as well. I also think both Natalie Stovall & The Drive and Lee Brice will debut, but there will be several artists battling it out for the last few chart spots, so someone like Maggie Rose, Chuck Wicks, Weston Burt, Big & Rich, or Kelleigh Bannen could take one of those last few spots instead.
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dajire4
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Post by dajire4 on Feb 9, 2014 7:03:18 GMT -5
I'm so happy to see those predictions back. Even if I don't post, I have always enjoyed reading them and will keep doing so as long as any of you guys decide to post them. Keep it up! ;)
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Feb 9, 2014 12:31:57 GMT -5
It's making me nervous at all the songs I love below the top 30 are all either struggling or not taking off quick lol, then again it's been like that for a few monthers now so I guess I should be used to it. I'd love to see Maggie, Kelleigh, Lindsay, & Natalie take off in the next few weeks but realistically only one or two of them will even make the top 40. Out of the current new females I think Maggie & Natalie have the best shot at making top 20. Kelleigh as much as I love her I think is going to fall short yet again and Lindsay may do what Leah Turner is doing and make the top 40 but that's about it.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 10, 2014 18:12:59 GMT -5
Hats off to jhomes87. #26 it is for Automatic!
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2014 19:22:10 GMT -5
Hats off to jhomes87. #26 it is for Automatic! Now let's see how close she was to the songs around her! (which will probably be Craig's WULY and Josh's CBWYNOI) :)
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 10, 2014 19:30:35 GMT -5
Hats off to jhomes87. #26 it is for Automatic! Now let's see how close she was to the songs around her! (which will probably be Craig's WULY and Josh's CBWYNOI) :) You better be doing more predictions. I love reading them.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2014 19:35:56 GMT -5
Now let's see how close she was to the songs around her! (which will probably be Craig's WULY and Josh's CBWYNOI) :) You better be doing more predictions. I love reading them. Thanks! :) I am going to try to keep posting them on Saturday nights, as long as I am not too busy. Billboard chart is out, and results are in: #25 Craig Morgan, 10.1 million #26 Miranda Lambert, 9.3 million #27 Josh Thompson, 8.2 million Here's what I had: #25 Craig Morgan – “Wake Up Lovin’ You” (9.340) #26 Miranda Lambert – “Automatic” (9.200) [NEW!] #27 Josh Thompson – “Cold Beer With Your Name On It” (8.000) Craig finished a good deal higher than I would've guessed, but I was very close with the other two. Not bad!
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 10, 2014 19:38:01 GMT -5
^Just posted the link for the Billboard Country Update. Saw that section of the chart and said, 'I'm gonna get that jhomes87'!
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2014 5:00:58 GMT -5
I forgot to post these earlier, but figured I'd put them up anyway since the chart doesn't come out 'til Tuesday evening. Better late than never, right?
Billboard top 60 predictions, with projected audience in millions:
1) Jason Aldean – “When She Says Baby” (44.520) 2) Luke Bryan – “Drink A Beer” (43.950) 3) Cole Swindell – “Chillin’ It” (43.280) 4) Lady Antebellum – “Compass” (38.680) 5) David Nail – “Whatever She’s Got” (35.070) [last week] 6-7) Frankie Ballard – “Helluva Life” (33.310) 6-7) Thompson Square – “Everything I Shouldn’t Be Thinking About” (33.090) 8) Blake Shelton – “Doin’ What She Likes” (31.470) 9) Dierks Bentley – “I Hold On” (29.760) 10) Scotty McCreery – “See You Tonight” (29.250) 11) Randy Houser – “Goodnight Kiss” (28.240) 12) Danielle Bradbery – “The Heart Of Dixie” (24.150) 13) Eric Church – “Give Me Back My Hometown” (22.250) 14) Jerrod Niemann – “Drink To That All Night” (21.680) 15-16) Dan + Shay – “19 You + Me” (21.320) 15-16) Rascal Flatts – “Rewind” (21.060) 17) Brett Eldredge – “Beat Of The Music” (16.930) 18-19) Brantley Gilbert – “Bottoms Up” (16.080) 18-19) Brad Paisley – “The Mona Lisa” (15.850) 20-21) Keith Urban – “Cop Car” (15.150) 20-21) Thomas Rhett – “Get Me Some Of That” (15.150) 22) Justin Moore – “Lettin’ The Night Roll” (13.720) 23-24) Craig Morgan – “Wake Up Lovin’ You” (11.090) 23-24) Kip Moore – “Young Love” (11.000) 25-26) Florida Georgia Line f/ Luke Bryan – “This Is How We Roll” (9.630) 25-26) Miranda Lambert – “Automatic” (9.200) 27-28) Hunter Hayes – “Invisible” (8.510) 27-28) Josh Thompson – “Cold Beer With Your Name On It” (8.370) 29) Sara Evans – “Slow Me Down” (7.780) 30) Tim McGraw – “Lookin’ For That Girl” (7.000) 31) Tyler Farr – “Whiskey In My Water” (6.400) 32-33) Billy Currington – “We Are Tonight” (5.300) 32-33) Little Big Town – “Sober” (5.100) 34-36) Jake Owen – “Beachin’” (4.640) 34-36) Sheryl Crow – “Callin’ Me When I’m Lonely” (4.570) 34-36) George Strait – “I Got A Car” (4.370) 37-38) Charlie Worsham – “Want Me Too” (3.600) 37-38) Chris Young – “Who I Am With You” (3.600) 39) Joe Nichols – “Yeah” (3.360) 40) Leah Turner – “Take The Keys” (3.100) 41-44) Eli Young Band – “Dust” (2.550) 41-44) Gary Allan – “It Ain’t The Whiskey” (2.470) 41-44) Chase Rice – “Ready, Set, Roll” (2.350) 41-44) Craig Campbell – “Keep Them Kisses Comin’” (2.260) 45-46) American Young – “Love Is War” (1.910) 45-46) Will Hoge – “Strong” (1.820) [last week?] 47-48) The Cadillac Three & Friends – “The South” (1.390) 47-48) Jennifer Nettles – “Me Without You” (1.350) [NEW!] 49-53) Lindsay Ell – “Trippin’ On Us” (1.130) 49-53) Darius Rucker – “Miss You” (1.070) 49-53) Toby Keith – “Shut Up And Hold On” (1.070) [last week] 49-53) Easton Corbin – “Clockwork” (0.980) 49-53) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (0.950) 54-56) Lucy Hale – “You Sound Good To Me” (0.830) 54-56) Lee Brice – “I Don’t Dance” (0.830) 54-56) Natalie Stovall & The Drive – “Baby Come On With It” (0.830) [NEW!] 57-59) Joel Crouse – “Why God Made Love Songs” (0.700) 57-59) Blackjack Billy – “Get Some” (0.700) 57-59) Maggie Rose – “Looking Back Now” (0.630) [NEW!] 60) Chuck Wicks – “Us Again” (0.470) [NEW!]
Other Possibilities:
...Weston Burt – “Smile That Smile” (0.450) ...Kelleigh Bannen – “Famous” (0.450) ...Dylan Scott – “Makin’ This Boy Go Crazy” (0.410)
Going Recurrent:
Eric Paslay's "Friday Night", Austin Webb's "Slip On By", and LoCash Cowboys' "Best Seat In The House"
Comments:
Jason Aldean will take over the #1 spot, with Luke Bryan slipping to #2 and Cole Swindell hanging in there at #3. "Chillin' It" looks to be running on fumes, however. Lady A will jump up to #4 with Frankie Ballard and Thompson Square battling it out right on the cusp of the top 5. Scotty McCreery will get his first career top 10 hit, leapfrogging Randy Houser in the process. Danielle Bradbery has slowed to a crawl and might struggle to hit the top 10, especially with Eric Church, Jerrod Niemann, Rascal Flatts, and Dan + Shay all closing in.
Brantley Gilbert continues his fast start while Keith Urban's "Cop Car" chases down Thomas Rhett. Craig Morgan inches closer to the top 20 while Kip Moore continues to really struggle. Florida Georgia Line will jump up several spots, easily into the top 30, but Tim McGraw hasn't even gained 600k this week. Josh Thompson, Tyler Farr, Billy Currington, Little Big Town, Sheryl Crow, George Strait, and Leah Turner continue to move slowly. Joe Nichols should move into the top 40 and the Eli Young Band should pick up a few more spots, but most of the other songs below #40 have continued to struggle this week.
I moved both Austin Webb and the LoCash Cowboys to recurrent-land, but there's a chance both could re-bullet and remain on the chart. I left Gary Allan on, but there's a chance that he could go recurrent, too. For debuts, Jennifer Nettles should easily have the hot shot debut, and she could even crack the top 50. It must be ladies' week (finally), because Natalie Stovall & The Drive should also see a good debut, and I expect Maggie Rose to make it on the chart as well. Finally, the #60 spot looks to be up for grabs among Chuck Wicks, Weston Burt, Kelleigh Bannen, and Dylan Scott.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Feb 17, 2014 14:28:26 GMT -5
Love the high debut for Miranda Lambert. Second week at #26 (give or take one).
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2014 0:03:44 GMT -5
Here are my top 60 predictions for tomorrow's Billboard chart! Projected audience number is in millions of impressions.
1-2) Jason Aldean – “When She Says Baby” (45.400) 1-2) Cole Swindell – “Chillin’ It” (45.170) 3) Lady Antebellum – “Compass” (40.680) 4) Luke Bryan – “Drink A Beer” (37.950) 5-7) Frankie Ballard – “Helluva Life” (34.490) 5-7) Thompson Square – “Everything I Shouldn’t Be Thinking About” (34.240) 5-7) Blake Shelton – “Doin’ What She Likes” (34.140) 8) Dierks Bentley – “I Hold On” (31.440) 9) Scotty McCreery – “See You Tonight” (30.710) 10) Randy Houser – “Goodnight Kiss” (30.230) 11) Jerrod Niemann – “Drink To That All Night” (25.020) 12-14) Danielle Bradbery – “The Heart Of Dixie” (23.550) [last week?] 12-14) Eric Church – “Give Me Back My Hometown” (23.520) 12-14) Rascal Flatts – “Rewind” (23.290) 15) Dan + Shay – “19 You + Me” (22.580) 16) Brett Eldredge – “Beat Of The Music” (18.810) 17) Brantley Gilbert – “Bottoms Up” (17.690) 18) Keith Urban – “Cop Car” (16.720) 19-20) Thomas Rhett – “Get Me Some Of That” (16.210) 19-20) Brad Paisley – “The Mona Lisa” (16.150) 21) Justin Moore – “Lettin’ The Night Roll” (14.880) 22) Miranda Lambert – “Automatic” (13.630) 23-25) Kip Moore – “Young Love” (11.320) 23-25) Craig Morgan – “Wake Up Lovin’ You” (11.200) 23-25) Florida Georgia Line f/ Luke Bryan – “This Is How We Roll” (11.030) 26) Hunter Hayes – “Invisible” (10.140) 27-29) Sara Evans – “Slow Me Down” (8.380) 27-29) Josh Thompson – “Cold Beer With Your Name On It” (8.320) 27-29) Tim McGraw – “Lookin’ For That Girl” (8.000) 30-31) Tyler Farr – “Whiskey In My Water” (7.010) 30-31) Craig Campbell – “Keep Them Kisses Comin’” (6.720) 32) Billy Currington – “We Are Tonight” (5.880) 33-34) Jake Owen – “Beachin’” (5.380) 33-34) Little Big Town – “Sober” (5.180) 35) Sheryl Crow – “Callin’ Me When I’m Lonely” (4.620) 36-37) George Strait – “I Got A Car” (4.200) 36-37) Chris Young – “Who I Am With You” (4.150) 38) Joe Nichols – “Yeah” (3.700) 39) Charlie Worsham – “Want Me Too” (3.270) 40-41) Leah Turner – “Take The Keys” (3.080) 40-41) Eli Young Band – “Dust” (2.960) 42) Gary Allan – “It Ain’t The Whiskey” (2.820) 43) Chase Rice – “Ready, Set, Roll” (2.520) 44) American Young – “Love Is War” (1.900) 45-47) Lindsay Ell – “Trippin’ On Us” (1.370) 45-47) The Cadillac Three & Friends – “The South” (1.370) 45-47) Easton Corbin – “Clockwork” (1.260) 48-49) Darius Rucker – “Miss You” (0.950) 48-49) Lee Brice – “I Don’t Dance” (0.940) 50-54) The Band Perry – “Chainsaw” (0.850) [NEW!] 50-54) Lucy Hale – “You Sound Good To Me” (0.820) 50-54) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (0.810) 50-54) Joel Crouse – “Why God Made Love Songs” (0.790) 50-54) Gloriana – “Best Night Ever” (0.770) [NEW!] 55-57) Natalie Stovall & The Drive – “Baby Come On With It” (0.680) 55-57) LoCash Cowboys – “Best Seat In The House” (0.670) 55-57) Maggie Rose – “Looking Back Now” (0.630) [NEW!] 58-60) Luke Bryan – “Play It Again” (0.600) [NEW!] 58-60) Blackjack Billy – “Get Some” (0.590) 58-60) The Swon Brothers – “Later On” (0.550) [NEW!]
Other Possibilities:
...Jennifer Nettles - "Me Without You" (0.530) ...Weston Burt - "Smile That Smile" (0.500) ...Kelleigh Bannen - "Famous" (0.450) ...Chuck Wicks - "Us Again" (0.400) ...Eric Paslay - "Song About A Girl" (0.400)
Going Recurrent: David Nail's "Whatever She's Got", Austin Webb's "Slip On By", Will Hoge's "Strong", and Toby Keith's "Shut Up And Hold On"
Comments:
As you can see, the #1 race is a close one, but with Jason still tracking at #1 on the RTT and with Cole having already secured the Hot Country Songs #1 as well as the Mediabase #1, it looks like Jason will get his 2nd week at #1. Still, there is some uncertainty there, as the numbers are close and there could always be a last-day pass. Lady A will be comfortably at #3 with Frankie, Thompson Square, and Blake all in a dead heat, battling it out for the #5 spot. Randy Houser will pick up his 3rd straight top 10 hit as his battle with Scotty rages on.
Danielle Bradbery's song appears to be on its last gasp but I think it'll get a grace week. Still, it doesn't look like she'll be able to move past #12, as Jerrod Niemann's tune is red hot and likely to take over the #11 spot. Eric Church, Rascal Flatts, and Dan + Shay have all but caught up to Bradbery as well. Keith Urban is set to climb up a couple more spots and Thomas Rhett is poised to score his 4th top 20 hit. Brad Paisley has really begun to struggle, and Kip Moore, Craig Morgan, and Josh Thompson continue to move slowly as well. Miranda should jump up several spots and Sara Evans might be able to sneak ahead of Josh Thompson at last. Tim McGraw's slow start continues.
Craig Campbell will jump at least 13 spots and he should easily be the Greatest Gainer, with an increase somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.4 million, all thanks to Clear Channel and their apparently new "program" known as 'On The Verge'. I've got Craig slotting in at #31 but he might be able to wrestle the #30 spot away from Tyler Farr. Meanwhile, Billy Currington, Jake Owen, Joe Nichols, and Chris Young have all had decent weeks but they'll be no match for Mr. Campbell. Little Big Town, Sheryl Crow, George Strait, Charlie Worsham, and Leah Turner have only managed small gains for the week so don't expect to see any of them move up many spots, if they move up at all. Gary Allan is still hanging in there but even with the Top 40 countdown spins, he's likely to remain below #40 on Billboard, where his current peak is #41.
Easton Corbin and Lee Brice should enter the top 50, and I've got The Band Perry debuting around #50 as well. Austin Webb, Will Hoge, and Toby Keith will join David Nail's "Whatever She's Got" in going recurrent, which will open up some spots for others to debut as well. I expect Maggie Rose and Gloriana to debut rather easily, and it looks like both Luke Bryan and The Swon Brothers could debut early. Jennifer Nettles debuted at #50 last week but I've got her at #61 in my projections. There's a chance that she could hang on to a top 60 spot but things aren't looking good for that one. Weston Burt, Kelleigh Bannen, Chuck Wicks, and Eric Paslay could also contend for top 60 placements.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2014 23:56:23 GMT -5
Here are my top 60 predictions for tomorrow's Billboard chart (dated 3/15).
1) Jason Aldean – “When She Says Baby” (45.550) 2) Lady Antebellum – “Compass” (41.260) 3-6) Blake Shelton – “Doin’ What She Likes” (35.350) 3-6) Thompson Square – “Everything I Shouldn’t Be Thinking About” (35.150) 3-6) Frankie Ballard – “Helluva Life” (35.050) 3-6) Dierks Bentley – “I Hold On” (34.810) 7) Cole Swindell – “Chillin’ It” (34.490) [last week] 8) Scotty McCreery – “See You Tonight” (32.520) 9) Luke Bryan – “Drink A Beer” (31.410) [last week] 10) Randy Houser – “Goodnight Kiss” (30.870) 11) Jerrod Niemann – “Drink To That All Night” (27.240) 12) Eric Church – “Give Me Back My Hometown” (25.020) 13-15) Rascal Flatts – “Rewind” (24.050) 13-15) Dan + Shay – “19 You + Me” (23.920) 13-15) Danielle Bradbery – “The Heart Of Dixie” (23.810) [last week?] 16) Brett Eldredge – “Beat Of The Music” (19.850) 17) Brantley Gilbert – “Bottoms Up” (18.720) 18) Keith Urban – “Cop Car” (18.220) 19) Thomas Rhett – “Get Me Some Of That” (17.660) 20-21) Justin Moore – “Lettin’ The Night Roll” (16.990) 20-21) Brad Paisley – “The Mona Lisa” (16.790) 22-23) Florida Georgia Line f/ Luke Bryan – “This Is How We Roll” (14.380) 22-23) Miranda Lambert – “Automatic” (14.190) 24-25) Craig Morgan – “Wake Up Lovin’ You” (11.800) 24-25) Kip Moore – “Young Love” (11.640) 26) Hunter Hayes – “Invisible” (10.380) 27) Sara Evans – “Slow Me Down” (9.460) 28) Craig Campbell – “Keep Them Kisses Comin’” (8.860) 29-30) Tim McGraw – “Lookin’ For That Girl” (8.480) 29-30) Josh Thompson – “Cold Beer With Your Name On It” (8.260) [possible recurrent] 31) Tyler Farr – “Whiskey In My Water” (7.490) 32-33) Billy Currington – “We Are Tonight” (5.850) 32-33) Jake Owen – “Beachin’” (5.590) 34-35) Sheryl Crow – “Callin’ Me When I’m Lonely” (4.770) 34-35) Chris Young – “Who I Am With You” (4.700) 36-38) George Strait – “I Got A Car” (4.340) 36-38) Charlie Worsham – “Want Me Too” (4.150) 36-38) Joe Nichols – “Yeah” (4.070) 39-40) Eli Young Band – “Dust” (3.350) 39-40) Leah Turner – “Take The Keys” (3.350) 41-42) Chase Rice – “Ready, Set, Roll” (2.690) 41-42) Gary Allan – “It Ain’t The Whiskey” (2.610) 43) Luke Bryan – “Play It Again” (2.000) [NEW!] 44-45) American Young – “Love Is War” (1.770) [last week?] 44-45) The Cadillac Three & Friends – “The South” (1.730) 46-52) Lindsay Ell – “Trippin’ On Us” (1.520) 46-52) Lee Brice – “I Don’t Dance” (1.470) 46-52) Easton Corbin – “Clockwork” (1.390) 46-52) Eric Paslay – “Song About A Girl” (1.390) [NEW!] 46-52) Big & Rich – “Look At You” (1.340) [NEW!] 46-52) Chuck Wicks – “Us Again” (1.310) [NEW!] 46-52) The Band Perry – “Chainsaw” (1.280) 53-57) Darius Rucker – “Miss You” (1.140) 53-57) Gloriana – “Best Night Ever” (1.010) 53-57) The Swon Brothers – “Later On” (0.960) 53-57) Parmalee – “Close Your Eyes” (0.920) 53-57) Lucy Hale – “You Sound Good To Me” (0.880) 58-60) Natalie Stovall & The Drive – “Baby Come On With It” (0.710) 58-60) Joel Crouse – “Why God Made Love Songs” (0.690) 58-60) Jennifer Nettles – “Me Without You” (0.650)
Other Possibilities:
...Kelleigh Bannen – “Famous” (0.650) ...Maggie Rose – “Looking Back Now” (0.540) ...LoCash Cowboys – “Best Seat In The House” (0.500) ...Dylan Scott – “Makin’ This Boy Go Crazy” (0.500)
I've got Blackjack Billy going recurrent, and I think LBT's "Sober" might finally drop off as well, although I'll give it a 40% chance of hanging on. Josh Thompson's "Cold Beer With Your Name On It" is probably 50-50 as to whether that one goes recurrent; I decided to leave it on. And there's also maybe a 10-20% chance that Jerrod Niemann could knock "Drink A Beer" to #11 in spins, sending Luke recurrent, but my guess is that Luke gets a final week in the top 10.
Basically we have too many songs trying to debut, very few songs throwing in the towel, and hardly anybody going recurrent. That is the definition of a logjam, and it's going to back everybody up. Maggie Rose and the LoCash Cowboys will probably get pushed out of the top 60, and Jennifer Nettles might as well, even though she's likely to post a gain (albeit a small one). LoCash's song is probably done...it's been without a bullet for 4 of the last 5 charts now so I can't see it re-entering. All in all, a very slow chart this week...when everyone is going up, then there aren't very many big gainers. And that means that we are overdue for a housecleaning!
Other notes:
Jason Aldean will easily get a 3rd week at #1, and while he's unlikely to climb any higher (in terms of audience), it's possible that he could get a 4th week at #1 if Lady A is unable to mount a small push this week. "Compass" has been struggling but all they really need is one last decent week and they'll probably finish #1. Meanwhile, the battle between Blake, Thompson Square, Frankie, and Dierks is just insane...all 4 songs are projecting to almost the exact same audience number. I'm gonna guess that these 4 will wind up in a different order than what they currently are on Mediabase, though, where Dierks is at #3.
Danielle Bradbery continues to hang in there, but it looks like both Rascal Flatts and Dan + Shay might finally make the pass. Danielle's song is one of those that would help out a lot of others if it finally gave up. Keith Urban should jump ahead of Thomas Rhett and it looks like Justin Moore might steal the last top 20 spot from Brad Paisley. The new FGL and Miranda singles are really the only 2 songs that have had pretty big gains this week, and they'll be closing in on the top 20. Craig Morgan and Kip Moore continue to move slowly and it looks like they'll remain in a close battle with each other.
Hunter Hayes is really struggling--it looks like the Clear Channel deal for this one may not have been the best idea. Five weeks ago he debuted at #26...and 5 weeks later, #26 is where he'll almost certainly still be. Sara Evans has had a decent week and should gain a spot as Josh Thompson will likely either drop below her or go recurrent. Craig Campbell should also move up a couple spots--his week has been pretty good, but not nearly as inflated as last week. Still, it looks like he'll jump ahead of Tim McGraw, but of course Tim's song is really struggling so that's just as much a part of it.
Billy Currington, Sheryl Crow, George Strait, Chris Young, and Leah Turner all continue to move quite slowly. Charlie Worsham has had his best week in quite some time and so he might be able to re-pass Joe Nichols. Eli Young Band should sneak into the top 40 but even some of the younger songs like "Dust" as well as "Yeah" and "Beachin'" have started to slow up due to the chart logjam.
Outside the top 40 there is very little movement, with most songs likely to gain 100-300k at best. Luke's new single should see a very strong (and early) debut, and it also looks like we'll see surprisingly good debuts from Eric Paslay, Chuck Wicks, and Big & Rich (Chuck's song is most likely benefitting from his role on Blair Garner's morning show--"Us Again" got block added at Cumulus). And this means that artists like The Band Perry, Easton Corbin, Parmalee, Darius Rucker, Gloriana, Lucy Hale, and Jennifer Nettles will all probably get pushed back a couple spots or so, even though all of them have added new airplay this week.
Now if only the chart-gods would grant my wish for a housecleaning next week...
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Mar 3, 2014 17:21:21 GMT -5
Country Airplay *** No. 1 (3 weeks)*** "When She Says Baby" Jason Aldean Greatest Gainer No. 5 "I Hold On" Dierks Bentley Debut No. 45 "Us Again" Chuck Wicks Debut No. 46 "Play It Again" Luke Bryan Debut No. 50 "Song About A Girl" Eric Paslay Debut No. 54 "Look At You" Big & Rich
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Mar 8, 2014 21:14:40 GMT -5
I'm just going to predict the top 10 of the Billboard country airplay chart for Monday.
1. Compass- Lady Antebellum 2. Helluva Life- Frankie Ballard 3. Doin' What She Likes- Blake Shelton 4. When She Says Baby- Jason Aldean 5. I Hold On- Dierks Bentley 6. Everything I Shouldn't Be Thinking About- Thompson Square 7. See You Tonight- Scotty McCreery 8. Goodnight Kiss- Randy Houser 9. Drink To That All Night- Jerrod Niemann 10. Give Me Back My Hometown- Eric Church
Really hoping Frankie Ballard gets at least 1 week at #1 but it's getting crowded at the top so Blake or Dierks could keep him from the top spot. Those songs are both gaining momentum.
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gonecountry
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Post by gonecountry on Mar 8, 2014 22:29:13 GMT -5
I'm hoping Dierks gets to #1 next week to make up for the BIK fiasco. The bigger question: Does Gary Allan finally have a chance to enter the Top 40 with It Aint the Whiskey? It seems like he is making some nice gains.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Mar 9, 2014 17:34:17 GMT -5
I'm hoping for a big housecleaning this week. Cole Swindell, Luke Bryan (DAB) and Danielle Bradbery are gone for sure. Josh Thompson and Little Big Town received grace weeks last week, so any amount of loss, and they are gone. Also, Leah Turner looks pretty likely to be pulled. There is also a chance that Gary Allan, Craig Morgan and American Young could all go recurrent as well, though those three are much less likely.
I'm going to guess that Cole, Luke, Danielle, Josh, LBT and Leah all get pulled, while the rest stay. That would mean 6 debuts/re-entries, provided nothing else at the bottom falls off. That would also free up 5 top 40 spots (not 6, since Leah fell to #41 last week).
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Post by countryman87 on Mar 9, 2014 23:55:49 GMT -5
I want to try my hand at this, I know I'm not gonna be as good as jhomes87 but here goes. I'm just gonna do the top 40.
1. Compass - Lady Antebellum 2. When She Says Baby - Jason Aldean 3. Helluva Life - Frankie Ballard 4. Doin What She Likes - Blake Shelton 5. I Hold On - Dierks Bentley 6. Everything I Shouldn't Be Thinking About - Thompson Square 7. Goodnight Kiss - Randy Houser 8. See You Tonight - Scotty McCreery 9. Drink To That All Night - Jerrod Niemann 10. Give Me Back My Hometown - Eric Church 11. Rewind - Rascal Flatts 12. 19 U + Me - Dan + Shay 13. Beat Of The Music - Brett Eldredge 14. Cop Car - Keith Urban 15. Get Me Some Of That - Thomas Rhett 16. Bottoms Up - Brantley Gilbert 17. Lettin The Night Roll - Justin Moore 18. The Mona Lisa - Brad Paisley 19. Automatic - Miranda Lambert 20. This Is How We Roll - Florida Georgia Line/Luke Bryan 21. Wake Up Loving You - Craig Morgan 22. Young Love - Kip Moore 23. Invisible - Hunter Hayes 24. Slow Me Down - Sara Evans 25. Keep Them Kisses Coming - Craig Campbell 26. Looking For That Girl - Tim McGraw 27. Whiskey In My Water - Tyler Farr 28. We Are Tonight - Billy Currington 29. I Got A Car - George Strait 30. Want Me Too - Charlie Worsham 31. Beachin - Jake Owen 32. Sober - Little Big Town 33. Who I Am With You - Chris Young 34. Calling Me When I'm Lonely - Sheryl Crow 35. Yeah - Joe Nichols 36. Dust - Eli Young Band 37. It Ain't The Whiskey - Gary Allan 38. Play It Again - Luke Bryan 39. Ready Set Roll - Chase Rice 40. Chainsaw - The Band Perry
I have "Drink A Beer", "Heart Of Dixie", "Chillin It", and "Cold Beer With Your Name On It" going recurrent. Since "Compass" is #1 on RTT, I think they'll get #1 this week. 3-6 could be in any order. "Sober" could go recurrent but I got it staying on.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2014 17:29:37 GMT -5
Glad to see others making some predictions on a weekend when I could not! :) (been travelling a lot the last couple of days)
Just a couple comments, while I'm here: I'm not sure that I see Leah Turner getting yanked. Her song is down less than 200k so I'd bet Billboard will give her a grace week. And I think "Sober" is going to re-bullet. American Young is another close one but I think Josh Thompson will leave, and of course Luke, Cole, and Danielle are all gone for sure.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Mar 10, 2014 17:32:41 GMT -5
Judging by the highlights, I think you're right about "Sober" and "Take The Keys". There are only two debuts this week. I assume that Jennifer Nettles will reenter, and I'm sure there will be another reentry, but probably not four.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Mar 13, 2014 20:16:18 GMT -5
Top 10 Predictions for next week
1. Helluva Life- Frankie Ballard 2. I Hold On- Dierks Bentley 3. Compass- Lady Antebellum 4. Doin' What She Likes- Blake Shelton 5. Everything I Shouldn't Be Thinking About- Thompson Square 6. Goodnight Kiss- Randy Houser 7. When She Says Baby- Jason Aldean 8. Drink To That All Night- Jerrod Niemann 9. Rewind- Rascal Flatts 10. Give Me Back My Hometown- Eric Church
Frankie is leading the way on Mediabase right now so hopefully he will get his first #1 on Billboard Country Airplay as well.
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