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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2012 18:43:46 GMT -5
Here are my predictions for the 3/17 Billboard chart! :)
1) Kenny Chesney – “Reality” 2) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 3) Jake Owen – “Alone With You” 4-5) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 4-5) Keith Urban – “You Gonna Fly” 6) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 7) Martina McBride – “I’m Gonna Love You Through It” (last week) 8) Blake Shelton – “Drink On It” 9) Chris Young – “You” (last week) 10) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 11-12) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 11-12) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 13) Rascal Flatts – “Banjo” 14) Miranda Lambert – “Over You” 15) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 16-17) Jason Aldean – “Fly Over States” 16-17) Scotty McCreery – “The Trouble With Girls” 18-19) Carrie Underwood – “Good Girl” 18-19) Zac Brown Band – “No Hurry” 20) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 21) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 22) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 23) Eric Church – “Springsteen” 24) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 25-26) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart" 25-26) Josh Turner – “Time Is Love” 27) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 28-29) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 28-29) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 30) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 31) Jana Kramer – “Why Ya Wanna?” 32) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches” 33) Alan Jackson – “So You Don’t Have To Love Me Anymore” 34-35) Luke Bryan – “Drunk On You” 34-35) Dustin Lynch – “Cowboys And Angels” 36) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 37-38) Ronnie Dunn – “Let The Cowboy Rock” 37-38) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 39) Thompson Square – “Glass” 40-41) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” (RE) 40-41) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 42) Thomas Rhett – “Something To Do With My Hands” 43) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 44-45) Uncle Kracker – “My Hometown” 44-45) Phil Vassar – “Don’t Miss Your Life” 46-47) Wade Bowen – “Saturday Night” (last week) 46-47) Canaan Smith – “We Got Us” 48-49) Easton Corbin – “Lovin’ You Is Fun” 48-49) Clay Walker – “Like We Never Said Goodbye” 50) Josh Abbott Band – “Touch” 51) JT Hodges – “Goodbyes Made You Mine” 52-55) Tyler Farr – “Hot Mess” 52-55) Kelly Clarkson – “Mr. Know It All” 52-55) Katie Armiger – “Scream” 52-55) Hunter Hayes – “Wanted” 56) Kix Brooks (featuring Joe Walsh) – “New To This Town” 57-60) David Nail – “The Sound Of A Million Dreams” [NEW!] 57-60) DJ Miller – “Between Sundays” 57-60) Steve Holy – “Until The Rain Stops” (last week) 57-60) James Wesley – “Walking Contradiction” [NEW!]
Going Recurrent: Luke Bryan's "I Don't Want This Night To End", The Band Perry's "All Your Life", and Toby Keith's "Red Solo Cup"
Comments:
Kenny Chesney sure has taken his time--at least by his standards--but he's set to pick up his 21st #1 hit with "Reality", as it should ascend to the top in its 23rd chart week. "Reality" will be the 4th #1 hit from his most recent album, Hemingway's Whiskey, with the only single to not hit #1 being "You And Tequila", which peaked at #3. It's a shame, because I feel like that song will be one of the more remembered songs from Kenny in recent years (due to its high digital sales and award show nominations), and might actually garner more recurrent airplay in the years to come. Anyway, look for Dierks Bentley's "Home" to slide up to #2, content to let Chesney have a week before it takes over. Jake Owen is on a roll and should surge into the top 3, and Taylor Swift is also moving along quickly and should hit the top 5. Look for George Strait to come in at #6.
The bottom has fallen out on Martina's "I'm Gonna Love You Through It". The song snuck up to #4 last week, but it was evident it had run out of gas. Now, it will fall down a few spots in what will likely be its last week on the chart. Blake Shelton and Lady Antebellum will both move into the top 10 this week, replacing The Band Perry's "All Your Life" and Luke Bryan's "I Don't Want This Night To End", which will both go recurrent. There's a chance that Chris Young's "You" could also go recurrent, but he's slowed his rate of descent. He'll likely remain ahead of Lady A in audience (but not spins), but he'd need to be passed by either Montgomery Gentry or Lee Brice (or both) in spins in order to go recurrent. I don't quite think that will happen, so I'm thinking Chris will get a final week before MG and Lee will have their crack at the top 10. As it stands now, MG and Lee are in a dead heat for the #11 spot, but if Chris somehow fell below one of them in spins, they'd be in a dead heat for that coveted #10 spot, and of course everyone below them would bump up a notch. I'll say Chris stays, though.
Miranda Lambert has slowed a bit but I expect her to pick up the pace again in the coming weeks. She and Tim McGraw will still move into the top 15 this week, though. Scotty McCreery is still hanging in there, though Jason Aldean is coming up fast and might sneak past. The Zac Brown Band is also closing in. Carrie Underwood's "Good Girl" is hotter than hot and should jump up around a dozen spots and about 10 million AI's, jumping straight from #30 to solidly within the top 20, right on the heels of Jason and fellow Idol, Scotty. Kip Moore will enter the top 20 in a less flashy manner, but his tune looks like it could be in it for the long haul, as it shows steady growth and strong digital sales. The same could be said for Brantley Gilbert's "You Don't Know Her Like I Do", which should be just behind Kip.
Eric Church's "Springsteen" is on a roll and should climb several more spots again this week. The Eli Young Band's "Even If It Breaks Your Heart" is also looking good and will pick up a few spots. Look for Gloriana and Andy Gibson to jump back into the top 30 this week, with Jana Kramer likely needing one more week before she'll be inside the top 30. Alan Jackson should pick up a couple more spots this week, and Luke Bryan will surge into the top 40, possibly as high as #34 and not too far behind Alan. Dustin Lynch, The Farm, and Love & Theft continue to make slow progress, while Ronnie Dunn has really begun to struggle. Thompson Square's "Glass" should move into the top 40, and I think the last top 40 spot will be up for grabs between The Lost Trailers and Josh Thompson. Billboard sent The Lost Trailers' single "Underdog" recurrent last week, after it had apparently posted a small audience loss. However, the song has gained nearly 200k on Mediabase over the past 6 days and finished last week there at #40, meaning it will debut on Bob Kingsley's CT40 and Kix Brooks' ACC countdowns this weekend (as in, today). Re-entries by songs that are older than 20 weeks are rare, but I have a hunch that Billboard will let The Lost Trailers back in for a few more weeks, since they should gain a few hundred thousand audience impressions this week. So, I'm expecting them to be neck and neck with Josh Thompson for the #40 spot. If Billboard doesn't grant a re-entry to "Underdog", then Josh will almost certainly land comfortably at #40.
Thomas Rhett is on the move, while Wade Bowen continues downward and will likely spend his last week on the chart, as "Saturday Night" has failed to really take off. Easton Corbin should move into the top 50, possibly joined by the Josh Abbott Band, with JT Hodges also closing in on the milestone.
With 3 songs set to go recurrent (Toby's "Red Solo Cup" being the 3rd, joining TBP and Luke), we'll have a couple of openings on the chart. I've predicted The Lost Trailers to re-enter, so that takes care of 1 spot. I think David Nail and James Wesley could take the other spots. And who knows, maybe DJ Miller and Steve Holy won't be able to generate enough audience to stay in the top 60? So it's possible that there will be more openings as well. In addition to David's "The Sound Of A Million Dreams" and James' "Walking Contradiction", other possibilities to debut/re-enter include Jerrod Niemann's "Shinin' On Me", Jason Jones' "You're My Favorite", Sugarland/Matt Nathanson's "Run", The Dirt Drifters' "There She Goes", and Aaron Lewis' "Endless Summer".
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Mar 5, 2012 17:02:37 GMT -5
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "Reality" Kenny Chesney Greatest Gainer No. 19 "Good Girl" Carrie Underwood Hot Shot Debut No. 60 "Shinin' On Me" Jerrod Niemann
So The Lost Trailers reentered and.. Run or the Star Spangled Banner??
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Mar 5, 2012 17:02:51 GMT -5
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "Reality" Kenny Chesney Greatest Gainer No. 19 "Good Girl" Carrie Underwood Hot Shot Debut No. 60 "Shinin' On Me" Jerrod Niemann
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2012 17:35:29 GMT -5
So The Lost Trailers reentered and.. Run or the Star Spangled Banner?? Can't say for sure about The Lost Trailers, but I'm guessing that's what happened. As for the other spot...it could be either "Run", possibly Kid Rock's "Care", or "The Star Spangled Banner" again, as crazy as it seems. We've just had a few weeks here where the audience has been so low at the very bottom of the chart.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Mar 5, 2012 20:26:26 GMT -5
Haha the Star Spangled Banner is BACK!!
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Mar 5, 2012 22:25:38 GMT -5
I can't @ TBP charting with The Star Spangled Banne.r They are destined for absolute superstardom if they can manage to get enough airplay to get that on the chart, low audience total or not.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2012 17:37:54 GMT -5
Looks like we could see a lot of recurrents on the upcoming 3/24 chart. Chris Young's "You" and Martina McBride's "I'm Gonna Love You Through It" will no doubt be leaving the top 10. I'm fairly certain that Wade Bowen's "Saturday Night" will be leaving as well, as it has been bullet-less for the past 2 weeks and has dropped out of the top 50 on Mediabase. Kelly Clarkson and Steve Holy will both go recurrent if they can't re-bullet; I'm less sure that these two will leave, as neither has much audience and just a small handful of spins could swing the pendulum enough that either of them might be able to post a small audience gain and re-bullet. But, I wouldn't be surprised to see them leave. I also think Uncle Kracker's flop "My Hometown" will be going recurrent...it'd be 21 weeks old, which means a single drop week could send it recurrent, and it's plunging, already down about 260k in the past 3 days. Scotty is another possibility, though we'll need to see his losses increase for me to predict he'll be leaving. Andy Gibson is also showing a small audience loss, though I'm fairly positive he'll manage to re-bullet and hang around for a while yet. But Chris and Martina will be leaving for sure. I'll give Wade Bowen a 95% chance of leaving. I'll put Uncle Kracker's chances at 80%. I do think Kelly Clarkson and Steve Holy will leave as well, but since we have no numbers to see for them, I don't wanna put their chances of leaving any higher than 60% or so. Right now, I'm leaning towards Scotty hanging on for another week, but that could change tomorrow or in the next few days if he posts a bigger drop. So maybe "The Star Spangled Banner" will hang around yet? It's possible. But at least there should be several openings. David Nail and The Band Perry will probably have the highest debuts. I could see Toby debuting a week early, and I think Justin Moore could debut a little early as well. If The Dirt Drifters are gonna chart, now would be the time to do it.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2012 12:20:54 GMT -5
Here are my predictions for the 3/24 Billboard chart! :)
1) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 2-3) Jake Owen – “Alone With You” 2-3) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 4) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 5) Kenny Chesney – “Reality” 6) Blake Shelton – “Drink On It” 7-8) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 7-8) Keith Urban – “You Gonna Fly” (last week) 9) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 10) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 11) Rascal Flatts – “Banjo” 12) Miranda Lambert – “Over You” 13) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 13) Jason Aldean – “Fly Over States” 15) Carrie Underwood – “Good Girl” 16) Zac Brown Band – “No Hurry” 17) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 18) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 19-20) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 19-20) Eric Church – “Springsteen” 21) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 22) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” 23) Josh Turner – “Time Is Love” 24) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 25-26) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 25-26) Luke Bryan – “Drunk On You” 27-28) Jana Kramer – “Why Ya Wanna?” 27-28) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 29) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 30-31) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches” 30-31) Dustin Lynch – “Cowboys And Angels” 32) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 33) Alan Jackson – “So You Don’t Have To Love Me Anymore” 34) Ronnie Dunn – “Let The Cowboy Rock” 35) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 36) Thompson Square – “Glass” 37-39) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 37-39) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 37-39) Thomas Rhett – “Something To Do With My Hands” 40-42) Phil Vassar – “Don’t Miss Your Life” 40-42) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 40-42) Easton Corbin – “Lovin’ You Is Fun” 43) Canaan Smith – “We Got Us” 44-46) Kix Brooks (featuring Joe Walsh) – “New To This Town” 44-46) Hunter Hayes – “Wanted” 44-46) JT Hodges – “Goodbyes Made You Mine” 47-48) Josh Abbott Band – “Touch” 47-48) Clay Walker – “Like We Never Said Goodbye” 49) Tyler Farr – “Hot Mess” 50) Katie Armiger – “Scream” 51-52) David Nail – “The Sound Of A Million Dreams” [NEW!] 51-52) The Band Perry – “Postcard From Paris” [NEW!] 53-57) James Wesley – “Walking Contradiction” [NEW!] 53-57) Aaron Lewis – “Endless Summer” [NEW!] 53-57) Toby Keith – “Beers Ago” [NEW!] 53-57) Jerrod Niemann – “Shinin’ On Me” 53-57) DJ Miller – “Between Sundays” 58-60) Justin Moore – “’Til My Last Day” [NEW!] 58-60) The Band Perry – “The Star Spangled Banner” 58-60) The Dirt Drifters – “There She Goes” [NEW!]
Going Recurrent: Chris Young's "You", Martina McBride's "I'm Gonna Love You Through It", Scotty McCreery's "The Trouble With Girls", Wade Bowen's "Saturday Night", Uncle Kracker's "My Hometown", Kelly Clarkson's "Mr. Know It All", and Steve Holy's "Until The Rain Stops"
Comments:
Billboard is undergoing spring cleaning this week! I fully expect at least 5 songs to go recurrent, and there could be as many as 7 leaving. As noted above, Chris, Martina, Scotty, Wade, and Uncle Kracker should all leave. Kelly Clarkson and Steve Holy will leave as well if they can't re-bullet. Normally I'd say they'd be gone for sure, but with several other "droppers" this week, it's possible they could manage to re-bullet.
Anyway, look for Dierks Bentley's "Home" to finally claim the #1 spot this week, after being patient for a couple weeks while waiting it out behind Keith and Kenny. Taylor Swift has had a huge week, which is typically expected of her near the end, but Jake Owen is also red hot. The two should be in a dead heat for the #2 spot, with the loser coming in at #3. You can bet both songs will contend for #1 next week, as I think they will be close enough to Dierks to prevent him from getting another week on top. George Strait has also had a big week and will surge into the top 5, extending his record with his 75th top 5 hit on Billboard.
Lady Antebellum should pick up a few spots this week, and Lee Brice will storm into the top 10, closing in on the trio. And finally, after 35 weeks on the chart, look for Montgomery Gentry to pick up their first top 10 hit in more than 2.5 years. It will be the first top 10 hit for Average Joe's Entertainment, and the first for the duo since "One In Every Crowd" in 2009. Rascal Flatts and Miranda Lambert continue to do well, and Tim McGraw continues to move forward. Jason Aldean is closing in, and Carrie Underwood is closing in on the lot of them, as her hot new single "Good Girl" should blast into the top 15 in just its 3rd chart week.
Kip Moore is looking very strong, and should take "Somethin' 'Bout A Truck" up a few more spots. The song continues to sell well and seems like a likely top 10 candidate down the road, and it might not stop there. Craig Morgan, like Montgomery Gentry, has had a long chart run as he works to re-establish himself on a new independent label. "This Ole Boy" will enter the top 20 in its 34th chart week--it's 1 week younger than the MG single, but has climbed even slower. Nevertheless, look for the song to become Craig's first top 20 in almost 2 years, and the first ever top 20 hit for Black River Entertainment. Brantley Gilbert and Eric Church will also move into the top 20 this week.
Chris Cagle should be just a notch outside of the top 20, which he hasn't seen in 4 years. The Eli Young Band and Josh Turner are also closing in on the top 20. Gloriana has had a big week, and "(Kissed You) Good Night" has easily become their 2nd biggest hit. Jana Kramer is also continuing to do well. Look for Luke Bryan's summer song "Drunk On You" to fly into the top 30. Andy Gibson's debut single "Wanna Make You Love Me" should also re-enter the top 30 this week, with the last top 30 spot up for grabs between Lauren Alaina and Dustin Lynch.
Veterans Alan Jackson and Ronnie Dunn should pick up a couple spots this week, though both of their singles have really slowed down this week, especially Alan's. Hopefully he can rebound and climb quite a bit higher. The Lost Trailers, now a duo, were able to re-enter the Billboard chart last week and will be rewarded with a top 40 spot this week. "Underdog" will be their first top 40 hit in more than 2 years. Newcomer Thomas Rhett should also move into the top 40 this week, with his debut single "Something To Do With My Hands" off to a solid start. The last top 40 spot looks to be up for grabs between Phil Vassar, Craig Campbell, and Easton Corbin.
Canaan Smith has slowed down a bit this week, but should still pick up a couple spots, and I think he'll climb quite a bit higher yet. Clay Walker, however, looks like he might not climb much higher. With several songs going recurrent, look for a bunch of top 50 entries. Kix Brooks, Hunter Hayes, and JT Hodges should climb well into the top 50, with Tyler Farr and Katie Armiger also potentially moving in. Finally, we should have quite a few new songs on the chart this week. I'm expecting the new arrivals to be led by David Nail and The Band Perry. Aaron Lewis and James Wesley also seem likely to chart, and Toby Keith and Justin Moore might be able to chart a bit early. I've also picked The Dirt Drifters to chart, though they'll need Kelly Clarkson and Steve Holy to drop off, and then they'll still be competing with Darryl Worley, Jason Jones, Sugarland/Matt Nathanson, and possibly a few more. For the time being, it looks like DJ Miller's "Between Sundays" and The Band Perry's "The Star Spangled Banner" will remain in the top 60, as audience totals will likely still be quite low for songs outside the top 50.
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Mar 11, 2012 12:43:47 GMT -5
That's crazy that there could be up to 7 new entries tomorrow night. Does anyone know the record for most debuts in a single week?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2012 16:41:20 GMT -5
That's crazy that there could be up to 7 new entries tomorrow night. Does anyone know the record for most debuts in a single week? I am not sure if I would be able to find out, but I don't think it'd be a record. Anyway, for anybody wondering, since Rascal Flatts passed Montgomery Gentry on Mediabase...it won't even be close on Billboard. As it stands now, MG is projecting to land around 24.2 million on Billboard, while RF is likely headed for the 22.2 million mark...about 2 million behind, give or take a bit. However, MG will get stuck at #11 on Mediabase, since RF is ahead there at #10. But I fully expect MG to hit #10 on Billboard tomorrow.
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dajire4
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Post by dajire4 on Mar 11, 2012 17:05:54 GMT -5
thanks jhomes as always for the predictions, I enjoy them very much. It's amazing that there are so many artists either getting hits once again after a long drought of them or new acts scoring their first hits ever. Also glad to see so many debuts this week, finally some songs gave up.
PD: sorry if my English is bad, I'm from Europe :)
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Post by Fanofctrymusic on Mar 12, 2012 15:57:52 GMT -5
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "Home" Dierks Bentley Greatest Gainer No. 9 "A Woman Like You" Lee Brice Hot Shot Debut No. 52 "Postcard From Paris" The Band Perry Debut No. 53 "The Sound Of A Million Dreams" David Nail Debut No. 54 "Endless Summer" Aaron Lewis Debut No. 55 "Walking Contradiction" James Wesley Debut No. 56 "Beers Ago" Toby Keith Debut No. 57 "You Still Got It" Darryl Worley Debut No. 58 "Ignition" Matt Stillwell Debut No. 60 "Ex-Old Man" Kristen Kelly
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2012 16:09:05 GMT -5
Wow...I underestimated. 8 debuts! And one song remains at #59...I'd bet it's either Jerrod Niemann or DJ Miller. Could be "The Star Spangled Banner" as well, but I'm thinking that fell off. Kelly Clarkson and Steve Holy are likely gone, then. It's possible that Jerrod Niemann might've fallen off, since he was only getting airplay on 2 stations and his song doesn't go for adds for another 4 weeks yet. But I think the "Banner" is more likely to have left, leaving either Jerrod at #59 or DJ there.
But hmm...if one of them is there, the other would probably have to be way up at #51? I don't know if Jerrod could've gotten that high, especially with all the stations jumping on David Nail and TBP.
The droppers would be Martina McBride, Chris Young, Scotty McCreery, Wade Bowen, Uncle Kracker, Kelly Clarkson, Steve Holy, and likely "The Star Spangled Banner" (Jerrod or DJ are also possibilities but I'm backing on "the banner" leaving). Audience totals are probably quite low for most of the songs in the 50's.
But now I'm wondering if Uncle Kracker got a grace week, or if Kelly Clarkson re-bulleted? Somebody has to be at #51. The Band Perry's "Postcard From Paris" got 16 spins at KKBQ in Houston (6th in market size). So I see no way that Jerrod or DJ could've gotten ahead of that and be there at #51. More than likely, the #51 song has 500-600k in audience or more. DJ probably doesn't even have 300k...and I don't see enough evidence to suggest Jerrod is that high yet, either. Maybe Kelly Clarkson re-bulled and is at #51? That'd mean either Jerrod or DJ at #59, with one of the two joining Steve Holy and probably The Banner in leaving.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2012 3:01:45 GMT -5
Here are my predictions for the 3/31 Billboard chart! :)
1-2) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 1-2) George Strait – “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” 3) Jake Owen – “Alone With You” 4) Dierks Bentley – “Home” 5) Blake Shelton – “Drink On It” 6) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 7) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 8) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 9) Rascal Flatts – “Banjo” 10) Miranda Lambert – “Over You” 11) Carrie Underwood – “Good Girl” 12) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 13) Jason Aldean – “Fly Over States” 14) Zac Brown Band – “No Hurry” 15) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 16) Eric Church – “Springsteen” 17) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 18) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 19) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 20) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” 21) Josh Turner – “Time Is Love” 22) Luke Bryan – “Drunk On You” 23) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 24) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 25) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 26) Jana Kramer – “Why Ya Wanna?” 27) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 28) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 29) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches” 30-31) Dustin Lynch – “Cowboys And Angels” 30-31) Alan Jackson – “So You Don’t Have To Love Me Anymore" 32) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 33-34) Thompson Square – “Glass” 33-34) Ronnie Dunn – “Let The Cowboy Rock” 35) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 36-37) Thomas Rhett – “Something To Do With My Hands” 36-37) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 38) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 39-40) Easton Corbin – “Lovin’ You Is Fun” 39-40) Kix Brooks (featuring Joe Walsh) – “New To This Town” 41) Phil Vassar – “Don’t Miss Your Life” 42-46) The Band Perry – “Postcard From Paris” 42-46) Kelly Clarkson - "Mr. Know It All" 42-46) Hunter Hayes – “Wanted” 42-46) David Nail – “The Sound Of A Million Dreams” 42-46) Canaan Smith – “We Got Us” 47-48) JT Hodges – “Goodbyes Made You Mine” 47-48) Toby Keith – “Beers Ago” 49-51) Tyler Farr – “Hot Mess” 49-51) Josh Abbott Band – “Touch” 49-51) Clay Walker – “Like We Never Said Goodbye” (last week) 52) Katie Armiger – “Scream” 53-56) James Wesley - "Walking Contradiction" 53-56) Aaron Lewis - "Endless Summer" 53-56) Darryl Worley - "You Still Got It" 53-56) Matt Stillwell - "Ignition" 57-58) Jerrod Niemann - "Shinin' On Me" (RE) 57-58) Marlee Scott (featuring Vince Gill) - "Train Wreck" [NEW!] 59-60) Chris Young - "Neon" [NEW!] 59-60) Alison Krauss & Union Station - "My Love Follows You Where You Go" [NEW!]
Dropping Off: Keith Urban's "You Gonna Fly", Kenny Chesney's "Reality", Kristen Kelly's "Ex-Old Man", and The Band Perry's "The Star Spangled Banner"
Comments:
Taylor took the lead for the Billboard #1 early in the week, and looked like she'd coast to the top spot. But George Strait came charging ferociously as we headed into the weekend, and while Taylor remains a slight favorite, a big enough Sunday by the King could have him vying for the top spot. Jake Owen also isn't too far back, but he'll likely let things sort out and begin his move this coming week. Look for last week's #1, Dierks Bentley's "Home", to slide down to #4, while Blake Shelton's "Drink On It" should surge into the top 5 with Lee Brice's "A Woman Like You" in hot pursuit. Rascal Flatts' "Banjo" will enter the top 10, and it looks to me like Miranda Lambert's "Over You" should slip in as well, as I think she'll knock Kenny's "Reality" to #11 in audience, and Keith Urban's "You Gonna Fly" to #11 in spins, which would send both former #1 hits recurrent. There's a chance that one of them might stay on for one last week, but I'll say they leave.
Carrie Underwood's "Good Girl" continues to fly up the charts and should be just outside the top 10, having passed Tim McGraw and Jason Aldean. The Zac Brown Band and Kip Moore should cruise into the top 15, with Eric Church on fire and coming up quickly as well. Look for Chris Cagle's "Got My Country On" to step into the top 20, consequently becoming his first top 20 hit in more than 4 years. The Eli Young Band should also move into the top 20, provided that 2 songs (Keith and Kenny) go recurrent. Luke Bryan continues to move up quickly, while The Farm's debut single "Home Sweet Home" is picking up some steam and should crash into the top 30. The last top 30 spot is likely to be up for grabs between Dustin Lynch and Alan Jackson. Ronnie Dunn, Phil Vassar, and JT Hodges have all slowed down quite a bit this week and might not see much (if any) upward movement.
Easton Corbin should move into the top 40 this week, and I expect Kix Brooks to beat out Phil Vassar and potentially climb into the top 40 as well. Canaan Smith has rebounded a bit this week, but he'll have new competition from The Band Perry, David Nail, Hunter Hayes, and possibly Toby Keith. TBP, David, and Toby should pick up several spots this week, while Hunter could also move up a bit. The Josh Abbott Band will go recurrent if they don't re-bullet--which might happen--but I'll say they re-bullet and hang on. I'm expecting a few debuts, though...2 songs to replace Keith and Kenny, and I'm also predicting a couple low-end songs to drop off--probably "The Star Spangled Banner", Kristen Kelly's "Ex-Old Man" (it should re-enter eventually, but doesn't go for adds for several weeks yet), and possibly Darryl Worley's "You Still Got It". I am predicting a re-entry for Jerrod Niemann's "Shinin' On Me", along with debuts from Marlee Scott, Chris Young, and possibly Alison Krauss & Union Station. Justin Moore, Glen Templeton, Eric Paslay, and Eden's Edge are also in the mix.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2012 14:31:01 GMT -5
Ack, changing who I had to debut. I could've sworn Martina's song was set to be sent out to radio last week (according to the BCU and CAW), but it only got 1 add this week, and 0 spins...so either radio hates it (doubtful), or it wasn't sent out yet. I'm guessing the latter.
Justin Moore probably got highest debut. I think Jerrod Niemann may have-entered. Both Glen Templeton and Eric Paslay may have scraped the bottom part of the chart. Looks like both Darryl Worley and Matt Stillwell probably got enough spins to stay on. Eden's Edge probably didn't get on. But both Alison Krauss and Marlee Scott got big adds in Houston and may be able to debut. We'll see.
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Mar 19, 2012 14:42:21 GMT -5
Ack, changing who I had to debut. I could've sworn Martina's song was set to be sent out to radio last week (according to the BCU and CAW), but it only got 1 add this week, and 0 spins...so either radio hates it (doubtful), or it wasn't sent out yet. I'm guessing the latter. Martina's song was sent out last Monday (3/12).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2012 14:50:40 GMT -5
^Really? Wow. I thought she'd get a bit more airplay. It seems (from the Add Board) that she didn't get a single spin. I know adds date is the 26th, but still.
So scrap my last post. Looking at the Add Board, I'm thinking that Jerrod Niemann probably returned, and I think Marlee Scott and Alison Krauss may have debuted. Justin Moore might have as well but he might have to wait 'til next week too. Chris Young seems like he may have gotten on. Glen Templeton and Eric Paslay are also possibilities.
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justme60
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Post by justme60 on Mar 19, 2012 14:55:08 GMT -5
I heard on the radio this morning from ET Jimmy Carter that Kenny will be performing a new song from his upcoming new album on the ACMs. He did not give the title.
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rbundy1987
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Post by rbundy1987 on Mar 19, 2012 15:51:56 GMT -5
Country Songs *** No. 1 *** "Ours" Taylor Swift Greatest Gainer No. 5 A" Woman Like You" Lee Brice Hot Shot Debut No. 54 "Neon" Chris Young Debut No. 57 "Til My Last Day" Justin Moore Debut No. 60 "Sing That Song Again" Glen Templeton
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2012 16:31:09 GMT -5
^Thanks. No Marlee or Alison. Both of them are getting some big spins though so they may be close to charting. And Lee Brice must've edged Blake Shelton for the #5 spot...I figured Lee would be the greatest gainer, but I thought he'd finish maybe half a million behind Blake. Glad to see Glen Templeton debut!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2012 12:55:03 GMT -5
I have no clue what to make of today's Mediabase update. Some are saying it is a panel change again, but from what I can tell, we lost a station (139 on the panel now instead of 140). Maybe they will tell us that a few stations were added or something. I really don't know.
But we have Tim McGraw gaining 3.2 million, twice as much as Jason Aldean, and more than 3 times as much as Carrie Underwood. George Strait and Dierks Bentley both "gained" audience when we know those 2 songs are actually falling like rocks. The Farm curiously loses 50k, while Dustin Lynch gains 1.6 million. What?
Alan Jackson gained 2.3 million. I'd be very happy but that just can't be. Kix Brooks had the biggest drop of the day, falling nearly 300k, despite being added to nearly 40 stations this past week. None of it really makes a lick of sense. Jake Owen has nearly 48 million...what in the world is up with Mediabase recently? After that big change last week, they were so very kind to tell us why they did that leave us in the dark with no mentions of the audience spike whatsoever in Monday's issue of Country Aircheck Weekly.
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layne
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Post by layne on Mar 23, 2012 14:00:00 GMT -5
^I noticed on the adds board that a station in Palm Springs CA KPLM is showing up now with a ton of songs added and they haven't been on there before. Also noticed KIXZ in Spokane looks to have been dropped..
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2012 14:08:21 GMT -5
^I noticed some small changes like that as well. But that wouldn't even cause a blip in the numbers. The market size (132) for the Palm Springs station makes it the smallest station on the entire panel, and since it was just added, it just happens to say that it just added every popular song, when in reality it's been playing them for a long time, I'm sure.
A big station (Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston) can contribute 1-1.5 million AI's in a week to a song in power rotation. So I really don't know how some songs, especially those very low down (Dustin Lynch & Alan Jackson) can gain 1.5-2.5 million in a single day. All I want is for Mediabase to tell us what's going on. I thought for sure there would be a big story in Monday's Country Aircheck Weekly about why the audience spiked up last Friday, but no...they left us in the dark.
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Mar 23, 2012 16:41:23 GMT -5
I agree. At this rate, someone will be up to 50 million by tomorrow, and 100 million in a few weeks...
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.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Mar 23, 2012 22:05:26 GMT -5
Let's see Scott Borchetta try to manipulate the MB charts now!
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Post by luvhonkytonk on Mar 25, 2012 11:45:33 GMT -5
I can't figure out how Taylor Swift can be at #1 when Jake Owen clearly has higher numbers in every category.
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Mar 25, 2012 12:21:25 GMT -5
I can't figure out how Taylor Swift can be at #1 when Jake Owen clearly has higher numbers in every category. Welcome to the Mediabase 'point system' club of confusion... Jake Owen should be #1 on Billboard this week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2012 0:56:33 GMT -5
A bit late tonight but better late than never. Here are my predictions for tomorrow evening's 4/7Billboard chart! :)
1) Jake Owen – “Alone With You” 2) Taylor Swift – “Ours” 3) Lee Brice – “A Woman Like You” 4) Blake Shelton – “Drink On It” 5) Lady Antebellum – “Dancin’ Away With My Heart” 6) George Strait “Love’s Gonna Make It Alright” (last week) 7) Rascal Flatts – “Banjo” 8) Montgomery Gentry – “Where I Come From” 9) Miranda Lambert – “Over You” 10) Dierks Bentley – “Home” (last week) 11-12) Carrie Underwood – “Good Girl” 11-12) Jason Aldean – “Fly Over States” 13) Tim McGraw – “Better Than I Used To Be” 14) Zac Brown Band – “No Hurry” 15-16) Kip Moore – “Somethin’ ‘Bout A Truck” 15-16) Eric Church – “Springsteen” 17) Brantley Gilbert – “You Don’t Know Her Like I Do” 18) Craig Morgan – “This Ole Boy” 19) Chris Cagle – “Got My Country On” 20-21) Eli Young Band – “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” 20-21) Luke Bryan – “Drunk On You” 22-23) Casey James – “Let’s Don’t Call It A Night” 22-23) Josh Turner – “Time Is Love” 24) Gloriana – “(Kissed You) Good Night” 25) Rodney Atkins – “He’s Mine” 26) Jana Kramer – “Why Ya Wanna?” 27) Andy Gibson – “Wanna Make You Love Me” 28) The Farm – “Home Sweet Home” 29-30) Dustin Lynch – “Cowboys And Angels” 29-30) Lauren Alaina – “Georgia Peaches” 31-32) Alan Jackson – “So You Don’t Have To Love Me Anymore" 31-32) Love & Theft – “Angel Eyes” 33-34) Ronnie Dunn – “Let The Cowboy Rock” 33-34) The Band Perry – “Postcard From Paris” 35-36) Toby Keith – “Beers Ago” 35-36) Thompson Square – “Glass” 37-38) Thomas Rhett – “Something To Do With My Hands” 37-38) Josh Thompson – “Comin’ Around” 39-40) Kix Brooks (featuring Joe Walsh) – “New To This Town” 39-40) The Lost Trailers – “Underdog” 41-42) Easton Corbin – “Lovin’ You Is Fun” 41-42) Craig Campbell – “When I Get It” 43) Phil Vassar – “Don’t Miss Your Life” 44) Hunter Hayes – “Wanted” 45) Kelly Clarkson – “Mr. Know It All” 46) David Nail – “The Sound Of A Million Dreams” 47-48) JT Hodges – “Goodbyes Made You Mine” 47-48) Canaan Smith – “We Got Us” 49-51) Chris Young – “Neon” 49-51) Justin Moore – “’Til My Last Day” 49-51) Josh Abbott Band – “Touch” 52) Tyler Farr – “Hot Mess” 53) Katie Armiger – “Scream” 54) Aaron Lewis – “Endless Summer” 55-56) Darryl Worley – “You Still Got It” 55-56) James Wesley – “Walking Contradiction” 57) Jerrod Niemann – “Shinin’ On Me” (RE) 58) Matt Stillwell – “Ignition” 59) Eric Paslay – “If The Fish Don’t Bite” [NEW!] 60) Dierks Bentley – “5-1-5-0” [NEW!]
Dropping Off: Clay Walker's "Like We Never Said Goodbye", Glen Templeton's "Sing That Song Again", and The Band Perry's "The Star Spangled Banner"
Comments:
A slow chart this week, with not a lot of movement expected, although several songs have gained in a big way. But it will be one of those weeks where few songs will go recurrent. Dierks Bentley's "Home" seems likely to stay in the top 10 despite a ridiculous drop, so the only recurrent candidate is Clay Walker's "Like We Never Said Goodbye", a song which barely scraped the top 50, and thus, its disappearance won't allow for too many songs to move up in position.
Last week's #1, Taylor Swift's "Ours", has continued to gain audience all week, but I suspect her and her label were mainly after the Mediabase #1 after having secured the Billboard #1 last week. Jake Owen has had a bigger week and looks likely to pick up his 2nd straight #1 with "Alone With You", while Taylor pulls off the rare feat of slipping 1-2 while keeping her bullet. Look for Lee Brice to storm up to #3...his hit single "A Woman Like You" is absolutely on fire. Blake Shelton's "Drink On It" is moving up strongly as well, but he's been forced to take his place in line behind Lee. Lady A has had a big week and will move into the top 5.
George Strait is falling like a rock now and will likely only get one more week on the chart, as his label pushed aggressively for the Mediabase #1 last weekend, only to come up short on Billboard, only peaking at #3. Rascal Flatts has had a huge week and should take "Banjo" up a couple more spots, past Montgomery Gentry. Their hit "Where I Come From" is still on its way up, but with some heavy hitters below, it may be close to peaking. Look for Jason Aldean to edge ahead of Tim McGraw as he battles it out with Carrie Underwood. The Zac Brown Band continues to move at a decent rate, but Kip Moore is closing in, while Eric Church's "Springsteen" has caught fire and is closing in on both of them. Luke Bryan is also on a roll, and Casey James has had a big week, likely boosted by his album release, as he closes in on the top 20. Veterans Alan Jackson and Ronnie Dunn continue to move rather slowly, and will have their hands full dealing with Love & Theft, plus new singles by The Band Perry and Toby Keith, which both look poised to surge into the top 35 this week.
Kix Brooks should pick up a couple spots this week, and with him, TBP, and Toby all moving up, a couple of the slower-moving songs (Josh Thompson, Craig Campbell, Phil Vassar, etc) might have to take a step or two back this week. Look for Chris Young and Justin Moore to bound up several spots each, while Canaan Smith, Tyler Farr, and Katie Armiger continue to struggle. With not too many songs set to leave the chart, we'll have only a few debuts/re-entries. I do expect Clay Walker to go recurrent, and I think The Band Perry's "The Star Spangled Banner" will also drop off. A few other low-ranked songs, such as Matt Stillwell's "Ignition" or Glen Templeton's "Sing That Song Again", could drop off for a week or two as well. I think Jerrod Niemann's "Shinin' On Me" will re-enter, as he picked up a few big station adds last week, and I also think Eric Paslay's "If The Fish Don't Bite" will be able to debut. Dierks Bentley's "5-1-5-0" is another possibility--he'd be debuting early, thanks to airplay from KEEY Minneapolis, but it's possible that his debut waits another week and Glen Templeton hangs on. Marlee Scott, The Dirt Drifters, Martina McBride, Jon Pardi, and Eden's Edge can't be ruled out for debuts, either.
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Mar 26, 2012 8:15:12 GMT -5
"5-1-5-0" had an audience around 300k as of last Thursday based on airplay from Charlotte, St. Louis, and Minneapolis. Crazy! I don't particularly *want* it to debut already (I'd prefer a higher chart debut) but I guess beggers can't be choosers.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2012 14:45:15 GMT -5
There are 8 new stations on the Mediabase panel, yet the total number of stations dropped from 140 to 139...so logically, they must've removed 9 stations.
The new stations I can see from the Add Board website are Dial Global's "Mainstream Country" (XM Radio), KMNB in Minneapolis (16th market size), WPOR in Portland, ME (90th); KDRK in Spokane, WA (93); KFGY in Santa Rosa, CA (122); WXBM in Pensacola, FL (128); KKIX in Fayetteville, AR (130); and KPLM in Palm Springs, CA (132).
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