raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 2, 2022 11:45:14 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 2. Michael Ray "Whiskey and Rain" 3. Chris Stapleton "You Should Probably Leave" 4. Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt" 5. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood "If I Didn't Love You" 6. Jon Pardi "Tequila Little Time" 7. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" 8-9. Luke Combs "Cold As You" (last week) 8-9. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 10. Kane Brown "One Mississippi" 11. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 12. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 13. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 14-15. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 14-15. Sam Hunt "23" 16. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 17-18. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 17-18. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 19. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 20. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 21-22. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 21-22. Callista Clark "It's Cause I Am" 23-24. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 23-24. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 25. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 26. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 27. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 28. Luke Bryan "Up" 29-31. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" 29-31. Lauren Alaina & Jon Pardi "Getting Over Him" 29-31. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 32. Walker Hayes "AA" 33. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" 34. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 35-36. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 35-36. Brothers Osborne "I'm Not For Everyone" 37. Dylan Scott "New Truck" 38. Parmalee "Take My Name" 39-40. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" 39-40. Luke Combs "Doin' This" 41-42. Adele & Chris Stapleton "Easy On Me" 41-42. Toby Keith "Old School" 43-45. Drew Parker "While You're Gone" 43-45. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 43-45. Chris Lane "Fill Them Boots" 46. Old Dominion “No Hard Feelings” 47-48. Chris Janson "Bye Mom” 47-48. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 49. Caroline Jones "Come In (But Don't Make Yourself Comfortable)" 50. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" 51-52. Lee Brice “Soul” 51-52. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days" 53-56. Midland "Sunrise Tells The Story" 53-56. Brett Young “You Didn’t” 53-56. Morgan Evans "Love Is Real" 53-56. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" 57. Nate Barnes "You Ain't Pretty" (last week) 58. Kameron Marlowe "Giving You Up" (Re-Entry!) 59-60. Ingrid Andress & Sam Hunt “Wishful Drinking” (New!) 59-60. Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” (Re-Entry!)
New & Active Conner Smith “Learn From It” Mitchell Tenpenny “Truth About You” Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A” Lady A “What A Song Can Do” Laci Kaye Booth “Shuffle” Hannah Ellis “Us”
Going Recurrent/Drop Outs Dan + Shay “Officially Christmas” Peak #45, Weeks: 1 Morgan Evans “All I Want For Christmas” Peak #51, Weeks: 1 Lainey Wilson “Christmas Cookies” Peak #57, Week: 1
Quick Final Thoughts Stay tuned next week guys where I will be offering a full commentary on how everyone on the chart is doing as it will be the first regular week of the chart, with an iHeartMedia debut from Maren Morris, a potential new #1 with Michael Ray (Dustin/Mackenzie could spend another week but I think Michael Ray will get it), and an attempted push for #1 with Jon Pardi next week.
Q1 promises to have a lot of new singles hitting the chart and radio as a whole with the aforementioned Maren Morris, along with Ruthie Collins, Zac Brown Band, and I imagine some more new singles impacting really soon. 2021 is gonna be a huge year for country music radio and I sense it is gonna be an outright battle and I am hopeful it will be a fun year for the charts.
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raylatch98
7x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2018
Posts: 7,783
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 9, 2022 10:04:57 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1-2. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 1-2. Michael Ray "Whiskey and Rain" 3. Chris Stapleton "You Should Probably Leave" 4. Jon Pardi "Tequila Little Time" 5. Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt" 6. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood "If I Didn't Love You" 7. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 8. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" 9. Kane Brown "One Mississippi" 10. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 11. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 12-13. Sam Hunt "23" 12-13. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 14. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 15. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 16-17. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 16-17. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 18. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 19. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 20-22. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 20-22. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 20-22. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 23-24. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 23-24. Callista Clark "It's Cause I Am" 25. Maren Morris “Circles Around This Town” (New!) 26. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 27. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 28. Luke Bryan "Up" 29-30. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 29-30. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" 31. Luke Combs "Doin' This" 32. Lauren Alaina & Jon Pardi "Getting Over Him" 33. Walker Hayes "AA" 34. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 35-36. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" 35-36. Brothers Osborne "I'm Not For Everyone" 37-39. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 37-39. Dylan Scott "New Truck" 37-39. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 40. Toby Keith "Old School" 41-42. Parmalee "Take My Name" 41-42. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" 43. Lee Brice “Soul” 44-45. Drew Parker "While You're Gone" 44-45. Adele & Chris Stapleton "Easy On Me" 46-47. Chris Lane "Fill Them Boots" 46-47. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 48-49. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days" 48-49. Chris Janson "Bye Mom” 50. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" 51. Old Dominion “No Hard Feelings” 52. Caroline Jones "Come In (But Don't Make Yourself Comfortable)" 53-55. Midland "Sunrise Tells The Story" 53-55. Brett Young “You Didn’t” 53-55. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" 56. Morgan Evans "Love Is Real" 57. Kameron Marlowe "Giving You Up" 58. Ingrid Andress & Sam Hunt “Wishful Drinking” 59. Mitchell Tenpenny “Truth About You” (New!) 60. Jameson Rodgers “Missing One”
New & Active Conner Smith “Learn From It” Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A” Laci Kaye Booth “Shuffle” Chayce Beckham & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me” Ernest & Morgan Wallen “Flower Shops” Hannah Ellis “Us”
Going Recurrent/Drop Outs Luke Combs “Cold As You” Peak #1, Weeks: 26 Nate Barnes “You Ain’t Pretty” Peak #46, Weeks: 31
Commentary (Beware it is very long) Ah the first regular week of the charts is here for 2022. With it comes a huge debut, songs fighting for positions, and many close calls position wise this week.
No better place to start than at the top of the chart where it looks to be a close battle between Michael Ray and Dustin/Mackenzie. Despite Broken Bow Records giving up promo for “Thinking Bout You”, country radio as I suspected is letting the song fall slowly and Warner Bros hasn’t yet pushed “Whiskey and Rain” too hard yet so there’s a chance Dustin/Mackenzie get a 6th week at #1 on Billboard. Right now I am leaning slightly towards Dustin Lynch and Mackenzie Porter pulling off a sixth week at #1, but I think it can realistically go either way and I won’t be shocked if Michael Ray sneaks it in. Speaking of which regardless of the result this week “Whiskey and Rain” will be #1 next week on Billboard which will be Michael Ray’s first Billboard #1 since his debut single “Kiss You In The Morning'', in 2015. Also it would tie Travis Denning’s “After A Few” for longest trek to #1 on Billboard.
Getting the bronze medal this week is Chris Stapleton’s “You Should Probably Leave” which given the CCUSA co-hosting schedule look for his push week to be after Jordan Davis and given the distance between Chris Stapleton and the next songs to hit #1 (Morgan Wallen and Kane Brown) I wouldn’t be shocked if “You Should Probably Leave” can nab a second week at #1 when it peaks later on. Jon Pardi went for the crown this week but “Tequila Little Time” is going to come up well short peaking at #4 on Mediabase and Billboard. I do expect a very fast fall for Jon Pardi given the lack of good callouts and next week should be the last week for “Tequila Little Time”. Rounding out the Top 5 is “Buy Dirt” by Jordan Davis and Luke Bryan which should hit #1 once Michael Ray clears out.
After spending 15 weeks in the Top 5, Jason Aldean/Carrie Underwood finally dip out of the Top 5 with their huge duet “If I Didn’t Love You” as they should be at #6. Now due to Jon Pardi probably having a huge fall next week I do think Jason/Carrie will be in the Top 10 for a while longer since the songs most likely to replace them in the Top 10 would be Eric Church’s “Heart on Fire” or Sam Hunt “23” and according to Mediabase there is an almost 2000 spin gap between the two. At #7 should be Morgan Wallen with “Sand In My Boots” who really got a solid amount of Top 10 conversions and more than likely will be the next #1 once Chris Stapleton is done. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley spend another week at #8 with “Freedom Was A Highway” as they didn’t gain much traction, and it does raise my suspicions of whether or not this will hit #1 since it has spent a lot of weeks in the Top 20/15 being one of the weaker links late last year and this week was no exception. Kane Brown and Kelsea Ballerini/Kenny Chesney had very strong weeks and for Kelsea Ballerini she should have enough spins to knock Luke Combs “Cold As You” off the chart as Kelsea Ballerini should score her 8th Top 10 on Billboard.
Parker McCollum moves up to #11 and should be the next to enter the Top 10 and is more than likely replacing Jon Pardi in the Top 10 as soon as next week. Sam Hunt and Eric Church both had similar okay weeks and given that last week on Billboard they were only 32k apart in audience I think either could be at #12 or #13. Elle King and Miranda Lambert should move back to their #14 peak however they had a very slow week of gains and I am still nervous for how high they can make it because of the lack of stations compared to their peers. Russell Dickerson also moves back to his #15 peak but unlike Elle/Miranda, “Home Sweet” had a pretty good week on the chart and could pass “Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home)” next week. Carly Pearce/Ashley McBryde sputtered a bit for the beginning of the year with their duet “Never Wanted To Be That Girl” and could get passed by Blake Shelton this week.Dierks Bentley and Cody Johnson both have very solid weeks on radio with “Beers On Me” and “Til You Can’t” respectively.
The last spot for the Top 20 is looking to be a battle between HARDY who rebounded very well this week with “Give Heaven Some Hell”, Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson’s “Never Say Never” which had a very good week of gains or Miranda Lambert’s “If I Was A Cowboy”. At the same time country radio has really given the cold shoulder to Keith Urban’s “Wild Hearts” and Callista Clark's “It’s Cause I Am”. I do think Keith Urban could rebound and still make some headway on the charts but I do think Callista is soon reaching the end of her rope here as she has been sputtering in the 20-25 range for a while now. I do think she makes it to next week, but after that I think Callista could soon be done.
Maren Morris should have a debut pretty comfortably at #25 filling the gap in between Keith Urban/Callista Clark and Thomas Rhett with her new single “Circles Around This Town”, now next week she will have a chart hangover and I imagine she will probably land at either Top 40 or Top 50 dependent upon how the gains go next week. Thomas Rhett and Jake Owen had okay weeks, I do think for a lead single “Slow Down Summer” is doing a bit underwhelming since it’s only at #26 on Billboard and #25 on Mediabase after 10 weeks which while not bad is a bit underwhelming for someone of Thomas Rhett’s stature within the genre. But that is nothing compared to Luke Bryan’s “Up” which looks to gain very little this week if anything at all as it continues to underperform with this being Week 14. I do think it will make the Top 20 but I won’t be shocked if this is his first single to miss the Top 10 since “We Rode In Trucks”. Rounding out the Top 30 should be Tim McGraw and Dan + Shay neither doing great this week and just merely existing on the chart.
In the 30s, Luke Combs surges with the non single “Doin’ This” as it’s chart run keeps on reminding me of Luke Bryan’s “Games” in 2015. The struggle continues for Lauren Alaina and Brothers Osborne with their singles, while Dylan Scott and Walker Hayes also don’t gain much. Taylor Swift has a huge crash this week on the charts with “I Bet You Think About Me”, I do think this week was a fluke but not a good start. Scotty McCreery and Chris Young/Mitchell Tenpenny have good weeks for their songs at least.
In the 40s, Parmalee temporarily dips out of the Top 40 as they have a bit of a setback week, Tenille Arts has a pretty solid week but unfortunately for her there is just not enough room yet for her to re-enter the Top 40. Lee Brice had a great week with “Soul” which looks very promising on the chart, as Chris Janson, Chris Lane, and Drew Parker don’t gain much while Morgan Wade also sees a bit of a setback this week as well and Adele/Chris Stapleton fall back as well.
At the 50s Old Dominion shockingly should be outside the Top 50 this week and be at #51, Caroline Jones also should stay put at #52 this week not gaining much. Midland, Brett Young, and Niko Moon should all be very close together. However none of the three are doing that great right now. Morgan Evans and Jameson Rodgers gain hardly any audience this week while Kameron Marlowe, Ingrid Andress/Sam Hunt have solid weeks and look for Mitchell Tenpenny to finally debut with “Truth About You”.
Songs Likely To Leave Soon Jon Pardi “Tequila Little Time” Callista Clark “It’s Cause I Am” Toby Keith “Old School”
Songs To Debut/Return Soon New Jason Aldean single Conner Smith “Learn From It” Ruthie Collins “Hypocrite”
Final Thoughts Next week looks somewhat promising with Maren Morris settling down to her natural chart position, and Jon Pardi falling fast so a lot of songs in the chart should get new peaks next week. But it’s hard to tell who is gonna give up soon beyond that as no one did so bad I think they are off Billboard next week, and those that had very bad weeks in Keith Urban and Taylor Swift I imagine will be here for a while longer. Also there is the looming huge debut for Jason Aldean that is coming some time in January which could come as soon as next week. Uncertain times on the charts and I imagine a lot of these songs are gonna hold on until the bitter end.
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raylatch98
7x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2018
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 16, 2022 17:56:00 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Michael Ray "Whiskey and Rain" 2. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 3-4. Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt" 3-4. Chris Stapleton "You Should Probably Leave" 5-6. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood "If I Didn't Love You" 5-6. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 7. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" 8. Kane Brown "One Mississippi" 9. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 10. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 11-12. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 11-12. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 13. Sam Hunt "23" 14-15. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 14-15. Jon Pardi "Tequila Little Time" (last week) 16-17. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 16-17. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 18. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 19. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 20. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 21. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 22. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 23. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 24. Callista Clark "It's Cause I Am" 25. Jason Aldean “Trouble With A Heartbreak” (New!) 26-27. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 26-27. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 28. Luke Bryan "Up" 29-30. Luke Combs "Doin' This" 29-30. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 31. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" 32. Lauren Alaina & Jon Pardi "Getting Over Him" 33. Walker Hayes "AA" 34. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 35. Brothers Osborne "I'm Not For Everyone" 36-37. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" 36-37. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 38-39. Dylan Scott "New Truck" 38-39. Maren Morris “Circles Around This Town” 40. Parmalee "Take My Name" 41. Toby Keith "Old School" 42. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 43. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" 44. Drew Parker "While You're Gone" 45. Lee Brice “Soul” 46-47. Ernest & Morgan Wallen “Flower Shops” (New!) 46-47. Chris Lane "Fill Them Boots" (last week?) 48-50. Adele & Chris Stapleton "Easy On Me" 48-50. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 48-50. Chris Janson "Bye Mom” 51. Caroline Jones "Come In (But Don't Make Yourself Comfortable)" 52. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days” 53. Midland "Sunrise Tells The Story" 54-55. Old Dominion “No Hard Feelings” 54-55. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" 56-58. Mitchell Tenpenny “Truth About You” 56-58. Brett Young “You Didn’t” 56-58. Morgan Evans "Love Is Real" 59. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" 60. Ingrid Andress & Sam Hunt “Wishful Drinking”
New & Active Kameron Marlowe “Giving You Up” Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” Conner Smith “Learn From It” Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A” Laci Kaye Booth “Shuffle” Chayce Beckham & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me”
Going Recurrent/Drop Outs Kameron Marlowe “Giving You Up” Peak #56, Weeks: 8 (Still Being Promoted) Conner Smith “Learn From It” Peak #59, Weeks: 2 (Still Being Promoted)
Commentary This week can be described as a suffocating week as having no songs going recurrent, an iHeartMedia debut, and another debut for a song that has a ton of hype pretty much doomed this week to be a standstill for the most part and a lot of songs to lose positions. All that being said, still plenty to talk about.
At the top should be Michael Ray with his first Billboard #1 since his debut single “Kiss You In The Morning” back in 2015. Time will tell if this was a fluke or not but given it is gonna tie Travis Denning’s “After A Few” for longest quest to #1 at 65 weeks on Billboard I am not the most optimistic. I would have to imagine a single is coming from either his EP released last fall or new material sooner than later. Dustin and Mackenzie should give up the top spot after six weeks at #1, that being said given the slow fall this song is experiencing, I don't see this song leaving until next month, maybe even March. Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan should sneak ahead of Chris Stapleton as they get ready for their push week next week I assume with “Buy Dirt” given the CCUSA co-hosting schedule. Chris Stapleton should though still hit #1 and I still think he is all but locked for #1 once Jordan Davis is done. The last Top 5 spot should go to Jason/Carrie who continue to hang around in the Top 10 or Morgan Wallen who had a great week of gains for “Sand In My Boots”.
After last week’s pretty ho-hum week of gains, “Freedom Was A Highway” really held its own and I am back up on it’s #1 chances. Kane Brown and Kelsea Ballerini/Kenny Chesney each gain a spot on Billboard and do solidly this week while also not having any competition threatening to pass either of them. Parker McCollum scores his second Top 10 with “To Be Loved By You” on Billboard and like with Kane Brown and Kelsea Ballerini, Parker McCollum is very solidly in his own place as there is a good distance between him and the next songs on the charts.
Elle King & Miranda Lambert see a surge this week with “Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home)” this week as Sam Hunt falls flat on his face for gains with “23”, and while Eric Church didn’t do too bad this week it was still nothing worth bragging about. As I suspected after pushing HARD last week “Tequila Little Time” falls like a rock and should spend its last week either at #14 or #15 depending on how Russell Dickerson does. Speaking of Russell Dickerson, “Home Sweet” didn’t gain much traction and is only potentially setting a new peak this week due to the distance between it and the songs below it and Jon Pardi falling fast. I don’t feel good for Russell’s long term prospects especially with much bigger hits from Blake Shelton, Cody Johnson, Carly Pearce/Ashley McBryde, and Dierks Bentley/Breland/Hardy all closing in fast which is inevitably going to set “Home Sweet” further back and “Home Sweet” has already racked in 52 weeks on the chart so it doesn’t exactly have weeks to just burn.
Cole Swindell and Lainey Wilson should spend a second week being the last spot in the Top 20 as they continue to do well, as does Miranda Lambert with “If I Were A Cowboy”. Same however can not be said for any of the latest singles from Hardy, Keith Urban, or Callista Clark. None of them did awful this week and for Keith Urban he is getting his bullet back for “Wild Hearts” but none of them are looking strong and I think all could leave sooner than later. Jason Aldean should debut right in the same spot Maren Morris did last week with his new single “Trouble With A Heartbreak” and I imagine like Maren he is gonna fall around where I have Maren this week.
Thomas Rhett completely falls flat on his face this week with “Slow Down Summer”, and the same can be said for Jake Owen and Luke Bryan with their singles as I get the sense country radio is excited for none of these songs. Now I don’t expect all 3 to flop, but I do think the way things are currently going I think Luke Bryan and Thomas Rhett are in danger of stalling out as they need to pick up the pace. I do think Valory is gonna hold on to “Slow Down Summer” until the album release in April, but if the song is still struggling I won’t be shocked if they cut it. With it being announced as his next single country radio is not wasting any time adding and playing “Doin This” by Luke Combs which should surge into the Top 30 this week with Tim McGraw also hanging in there for the Top 30 as he has a very good week of gains.
In the 30s, Dan + Shay continue to not do much and in a week where no one goes recurrent, that’s not good and they are most definitely getting pushed out of the Top 30 this week and losing American Country Countdown spins this time next week which is a big blow. Despite falling back a spot Lauren Alaina had a pretty decent week and stands a solid chance of re-entering the Top 30 as she’s not too far from Dan + Shay and can definitely make the pass next week, not to mention her duet partner’s own solo single should go recurrent and Jason Aldean should fall below temporarily. Be on the lookout for “Getting Over Him”, it may not hit #1 but I think it’s starting to finally gain some traction. Another song gaining traction is Walker Hayes with “AA” which is connecting so well despite it’s limited radio airplay, but I suspect once this gets back in the Top 30 it should take off. Scotty McCreery and Taylor Swift both have solid weeks as well, while Brothers Osborne, Frank Ray, and Dylan Scott struggle to gain much, and Parmalee “Take My Name” should reclaim its Top 40 spot after temporarily bouncing out last week. Lastly, Maren Morris chart hangover should land her just inside the Top 40 with “Circles Around This Town”.
Like with Dan + Shay, Toby Keith and Chris Young/Mitchell Tenpenny did not have much in terms of gains this week and as such both will probably be out of the Top 40 and after hitting the Top 40 late last year, things are bleak for Tenille Arts and her latest single “Back Then, Right Now” as she stands a solid cance to lose her bullet. Maybe next week will bring some needed adrenaline for her but it’s not good.
Despite the controversy of Morgan Wallen performing with Ernest on the song “Flower Shops” at the Opry it hasn’t stopped country radio from immediately jumping on this song and I am expecting a Top 50 debut for the song. Chris Lane and Adele/Chris Stapleton are looking really weak on the charts and for Chris Lane I would not be shocked if this was his last week as he has just been stuck in the 40s forever it feels like and it is not exactly like the radio adds are coming in to help. As for Adele, the only reason why I think she might be able to hang on for a few more weeks is that she is still getting adds.
As for the songs in the 50s, Mitchell Tenpenny had a good second week with “Truth About You” while Niko Moon had a really bad week and is barely hanging on to the chart this week as Kameron Marlowe and Conner Smith should both be pushed out (there is also a chance Ingrid Andress gets pushed out instead just fyi).
Songs Likely To Leave Soon Michael Ray “Whiskey and Rain” Jon Pardi “Tequila Little Time” Chris Lane “Fill Them Boots” Adele & Chris Stapleton “Easy On Me”
Songs In Trouble Russell Dickerson “Home Sweet” Hardy “Give Heaven Some Hell” Keith Urban “Wild Hearts” Callista Clark “It’s Cause I Am” Thomas Rhett “Slow Down Summer” Luke Bryan “Up” Dan + Shay “Steal My Love” Brothers Osborne “I’m Not For Everyone” Tenille Arts “Back Then Right Now”
Songs To Debut/Return Soon Kameron Marlowe “Giving You Up” Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A” Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” Conner Smith “Learn From It” Laci Kaye Booth “Shuffle”
Final Thoughts This was a week from hell for the charts. Luckily with Jon Pardi going recurrent and Jason Aldean having his iHeart hangover and their being no big debuts last I checked, next week should be a bit better. That being said the charts are looking very poised to get very crowded in a hurry with new singles from Zac Brown Band, Kip Moore, Lady A, Gabby Barrett, Priscilla Block, Eli Young Band and Kenny Chesney all going for adds within a month from now, and I imagine most of them will probably be on the charts no later than mid-March with maybe Eli Young Band being the one probable dud of the bunch, (not to mention I suspect Dustin Lynch, Jon Pardi, will have new singles sooner than later). Hopefully a couple of the songs that are kind of dead-weight at this point (Chris Lane, Dan + Shay) can help make the charts a bit more breathable.
Stay tuned for next week for all the craziness that is bound to happen, and I hope that Jon Pardi is not the only one going recurrent, but until then I hope you have a great week and thank you for reading this!
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 23, 2022 11:49:33 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt" 2. Chris Stapleton "You Should Probably Leave" 3-5. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 3-5. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" 3-5. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 6. Kane Brown "One Mississippi" 7. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood "If I Didn't Love You" 8. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 9. Michael Ray "Whiskey and Rain" (last week) 10. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 11-13. Sam Hunt "23" 11-13. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 11-13. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 14. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 15. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 16. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 17-18. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 17-18. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 19. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 20. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 21. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 22-23. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 22-23. Callista Clark "It's Cause I Am" 24-26. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 24-26. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 24-26. Luke Combs "Doin' This" 27. Luke Bryan "Up" 28. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 29-30. Lauren Alaina & Jon Pardi "Getting Over Him" 29-30. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" (last week?) 31-32. Maren Morris “Circles Around This Town” 31-32. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 33. Walker Hayes "AA" 34. Ernest & Morgan Wallen “Flower Shops” 35-37. Parmalee "Take My Name" 35-37. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 35-37. Brothers Osborne "I'm Not For Everyone" 38-39. Jason Aldean “Trouble With A Heartbreak” 38-39. Dylan Scott "New Truck" 40. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" 41. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" 42. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 43. Adele & Chris Stapleton "Easy On Me" 44-45. Toby Keith "Old School" 44-45. Drew Parker "While You're Gone" 46-47. Lee Brice “Soul” 46-47. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 48. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days” 49. Chris Janson "Bye Mom” 50-52. Chris Lane "Fill Them Boots" (last week?) (35% chance of going recurrent) 50-52. Caroline Jones "Come In (But Don't Make Yourself Comfortable)" 50-52. Midland "Sunrise Tells The Story" 53. Old Dominion “No Hard Feelings” 54-56. Ingrid Andress & Sam Hunt “Wishful Drinking” 54-56. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" 54-56. Mitchell Tenpenny “Truth About You” 57. Brett Young “You Didn’t” 58. Morgan Evans "Love Is Real" 59. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" 60. Kameron Marlowe “Giving You Up” (Re-Entry!)
New & Active Conner Smith “Learn From It” Morgan Wallen “Wasted On You” Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A” Hannah Ellis “Us” Chayce Beckham & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me” Zac Brown Band “Out In The Middle”
Going Recurrent/Drop Outs Jon Pardi “Tequila Little Time” Peak #5, Weeks: 52
Commentary This week was a really welcomed reprieve after having the last two weeks with huge debuts (three if you count Ernest/Morgan Wallen) as this week the second hude debut settles down back to natural position, a song within the Top 15 is going recurrent which also helps move the charts along and a new #1.
Starting at the top, the absolute mammoth hit “Buy Dirt” should spend its first of 2 weeks at #1 as MCA is pushing the song until the end of the month. Runner up position is the also huge hit from Chris Stapleton “You Should Probably Leave” which should be #1 as soon as Jordan Davis is done. Morgan Wallen “Sand In My Boots”, Jimmie Allen/Brad Paisley “Freedom Was A Highway, and Dustin Lynch/Mackenzie Porter “Thinking Bout You” should all be very bunced up together in audience as Dustin/Mackenzie continue their slow descent while Morgan Wallen and Jimmie/Brad begin to make plans for the top.
Kane Brown moves up to #6 and should be the next one in the Top 5 when “Thinking Bout You” inevitably clears out next week. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood continue to slowly lose more spots in the Top 10 as they should move down to #7, that being said I don’t think “If I Didn’t Love You” is going recurrent on Billboard anytime real soon as there is a good 1400 spin gap on Mediabase between Jason/Carrie and the songs waiting just outside the Top 10 (Sam Hunt, Eric Church, Elle King/Miranda Lambert). Kelsea Ballerini/Kenny Chesney and Parker McCollum both get very strong Top 10 conversions for their latest singles and after hitting #1 last week, Michael Ray’s “Whiskey and Rain” took a particularly hard fall this week as this week should be it’s last week on the chart.
Sam Hunt “23”, Eric Church “Heart On Fire”, and Elle King & Miranda Lambert “Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home)” all continue to remain very tightly bunched up together and given the vacancy next week in the Top 10 it should be a battle for that last Top 10 spot next week, but all 3 are looking very strong. After a slow week last week Russell Dickerson picks the pace back up with “Home Sweet”, unfortunately for Russell Dickerson he is probably getting passed next week by Cody Johnson and Blake Shelton as both look even better with “Til You Can’t” and “Come Back As A Country Boy” respectively. Carly Pearce/Ashley McBryde slowed down greatly this week and should see a setback with Blake Shelton re-passing them and Dierks Bentley also looking to get ahead with “Beers On Me”. That being said, “Never Wanted To Be That Girl” still looks really strong on the chart and I am like 99% sure this week was a fluke. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson should re-enter the Top 20 re-passing Hardy as “Never Say Never” really picked the pace back up and enters the Mediabase Top 20 tonight. Lastly Hardy should spend a second week at #20 rounding out the Top 20.
Keith Urban should get back to his #21 peak with “Wild Hearts” this week as he continues to crawl up in gains, however that was a lot better than Miranda Lambert as “If I Were A Cowboy” looks to have fallen a bit in audience and will more than likely lose it’s bullet on Billboard. That being said, I imagine it was a fluke week and next week Miranda will be fighting Keith Urban and maybe Luke Combs for that Top 20 spot Michael Ray will leave vacant. Callista Clark continues to do okay on the chart still trying to find the reopening to get back into the Top 20. I will say this week was solid enough that I don’t think “It’s Cause I Am” is in immediate danger to leave the charts but I do ponder how much longer can Callista hang in there since she still isn’t moving much. Luke Combs continues to do what Luke Combs does best, surge up the chart with “Doin’ This” which should easily pass Luke Bryan “Up” and could also feasibly pass Jake Owen and Thomas Rhett as Thomas Rhett once again didn’t gain much and while Jake Owen should gain his bullet back on Billboard, it’s not like “Best Thing Since Backroads” is lighting the charts up. Luke Bryan should set a new peak of #27 with “Up” but like Thomas Rhett this week was a huge underperformance for him. After having an absolute great week last week Tim McGraw doesn’t gain much audience but should coast up a couple spots to #28 regardless. Dan + Shay and Lauren Alaina/Jon Pardi should re-enter the Top 30 with Dan + Shay starting the week off decent enough but due to losing American Country Countdown spins I imagine “Steal My Love” is losing its bullet on Billboard while Lauren Alaina stands a decent chance to match her last solo singles peak “Getting Good” this week as she should probably land at #29.
Maren Morris has a very good week for “Circles Around This Town” as she should be just outside the Top 30 and should re-enter next week. Scotty McCreery didn’t have as good of a week as Maren Morris but “Damn Strait” should also be in the Top 30 real soon as it continues to do very well. Walker Hayes is not doing bad but after hitting the Top 30 a few weeks ago it does seem like “AA” can’t seem to find that great week where it just surges into the Top 30. I do still think once it hits the Top 30 it will do wonders on the chart. Ernest & Morgan Wallen “Flower Shops” is white hot with momentum as it is going for radio adds tomorrow and is already nearing the Billboard Top 30. Parmalee continues to remain strong and steady with “Take My Name” and looks to finish near where Frank Ray (who got the Cumulus Block this week) and Brothers Osborne on the chart. Jason Aldean’s hangover on the chart with “Trouble With A Heartbreak” was a bit worse than Maren Morris’ last week but Jason Aldean still looks good. Dylan Scott doesn’t move much but will pass Taylor Swift as “I Bet You Think About Me” had another less than ideal week and should stay in the Top 40 because the songs below Taylor didn’t do well either (Toby Keith and Chris Young/Mitchell Tenpenny should both probably lose their bullets and Tenille Arts gained pretty much nothing)
In the 40s, Adele/Chris Stapleton finally gained some lost ground and should move up to #43. Drew Parker and Chris Janson gained hardly any audience as both continue to struggle. Lee Brice rebounds this week with “Soul” as he and Justin Moore do pretty well. Morgan Wade got added by the Cumulus Block which should lead her back into the Top 50 with “Wilder Days”. Chris Lane continues to struggle greatly with “Fill Them Boots” as Chris Lane’s 40th week on the chart he will be at #50 to #52 dependending if Caroline Jones and/or Midland get ahead of him, that is if Chris Lane is on the chart as I do think there is a non zero chance Billboard decides to send the song recurrent.
At the bottom of the charts Old Dominion doesn’t gain much while Ingrid Andress/Sam Hunt and Mitchell Tenpenny both have solid weeks for this section of the chart and look to potentially pass a much weaker Chase Rice. Brett Young “You Didn’t” and Morgan Evans “Love Is Real” don’t look to gain much of anything this week. Niko Moon has an okay week after last week’s disaster and gut instinct is telling me Kameron Marlowe gets the last spot in the Top 60 over other songs nearing the chart in Conner Smith, Dillon Carmichael, and Jameson Rodgers.
Songs Likely To Leave Soon Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter “Thinking Bout You” Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood “If I Didn’t Love You” Michael Ray “Whiskey and Rain” Dan + Shay “Steal My Love” Chris Lane “Fill Them Boots”
Songs In Trouble Brothers Osborne “I’m Not For Everyone” Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton “I Bet You Think About Me” Tenille Arts “Back Then, Right Now” Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny “At The End Of A Bar” Toby Keith “Old School” Drew Parker “While You’re Gone” Chris Janson “Bye Mom”
Songs To Debut/Return Soon Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A” Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” Conner Smith “Learn From It” Zac Brown Band “Out In The Middle” Lady A “What A Song Can Do”
Final Thoughts So looking ahead to next week Michael Ray is a lock to go recurrent and as far as I can tell there is no big iHeartMedia debut next week. I do hope that Chris Lane can leave since his song is still dead weight. Beyond that look for Luke Combs, Maren Morris, Ernest/Morgan Wallen, and Jason Aldean to tear up the chart below the Top 20 next week and for Jordan Davis to have a second week at #1.
But that’s all for me so if you are reading this have a great week and see you next Sunday.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 30, 2022 10:21:52 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt" 2. Chris Stapleton "You Should Probably Leave" 3. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 4-5. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" 4-5. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 6. Kane Brown "One Mississippi" 7. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood "If I Didn't Love You" 8. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 9. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 10. Michael Ray "Whiskey and Rain" (last week) 11. Sam Hunt "23" 12. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 13. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 14. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 15. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 16-17. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 16-17. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 18. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 19. Callista Clark "It's Cause I Am" (last week) 20. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 21. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 22. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 23. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 24. Luke Combs "Doin' This" 25. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 26. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 27. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 28. Luke Bryan "Up" 29. Ernest & Morgan Wallen “Flower Shops” 30. Maren Morris “Circles Around This Town” 31-32. Jason Aldean “Trouble With A Heartbreak” 31-32. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" 33. Lauren Alaina & Jon Pardi "Getting Over Him" 34-35. Walker Hayes "AA" 34-35. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 36. Parmalee "Take My Name" 37. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 38. Toby Keith "Old School" 39. Brothers Osborne "I'm Not For Everyone" 40-41. Dylan Scott "New Truck" 40-41. Adele & Chris Stapleton "Easy On Me" 42. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 43. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" 44. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 45-47. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" (last week?) 45-47. Drew Parker "While You're Gone" 45-47. Lee Brice “Soul” 48. Chris Lane "Fill Them Boots" (last week?) 49. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days” 50. Ingrid Andress & Sam Hunt “Wishful Drinking” 51-52. Midland "Sunrise Tells The Story" 51-52. Chris Janson "Bye Mom” 53-54. Caroline Jones "Come In (But Don't Make Yourself Comfortable)" 53-54. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" 55-57. Old Dominion “No Hard Feelings” 55-57. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" 55-57. Brett Young “You Didn’t” 58. Morgan Evans "Love Is Real" 59. Mitchell Tenpenny “Truth About You” 60. Lady A “What A Song Can Do” (New!)
New & Active Conner Smith “Learn From It” Morgan Wallen “Wasted On You” Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A” Chayce Beckham & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me” Kip Moore “Crazy One More Time” Zac Brown Band “Out In The Middle”
Going Recurrent/Drop Outs Kameron Marlowe “Giving You Up”, Peak #56, Weeks: 9 (still being promoted)
Commentary This week can best be described as stagnant. No one is actively going recurrent, the #1 song is spending a second week and as such there is not a lot of movement position wise as such there won’t be a lot to talk about this week for better or for worse.
Like mentioned above Jordan Davis should spend a second week at #1 with “Buy Dirt” becoming his first multi week #1. Chris Stapleton spends a second week at #2 with “You Should Probably Leave”, Morgan Wallen should move up to #3 as “Sand In My Boots” continues to inch ever closer to #1. The #4 spot should go to either Jimmie Allen/Brad Paisley’s “Freedom Was A Highway” or Dustin Lynch/Mackenzie Porter’s former 6 week #1 “Thinking Bout You” as the former gets ready to soon make a push for #1 while the latter continues its slow descent. Kane Brown should move up to #6 with “One Mississippi” as he should hit the Top 5 next week. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood should spend a 21st week in the Top 10 with the mega smash hit “If I Didn’t Love You” and I definitely think the duet can sneak in at least one more week in the Top 10. Kelsea Ballerini/Kenny Chesney “Half Of My Hometown” and Parker McCollum “To Be Loved By You” should each move up a spot and setting a new peak of #8 and #9 respectively and I will say given the gap between them and the next set of songs being promoted (there is at least a 3 million audience gap between Parker McCollum and Sam Hunt) I won’t be shocked if given the gap one of the two becomes a multi week #1. Anyways, rounding out the Top 10 is Michael Ray “Whiskey and Rain” in what I presume is his actual final week.
Sam Hunt “23” should get back ahead of Elle King & Miranda Lambert’s “Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home)” as both of them and Eric Church continue to linger just outside the Top 10 with Sam Hunt developing a bit of a lead on the latter two. However it will not shock me if it’s Cody Johnson who takes Michael Ray’s Top 10 spot next week as “Til You Can’t” continues to race up the chart as he easily blew right pass Russell Dickerson’s “Home Sweet” and is closing in fast on Eric Church with Elle/Miranda not too far out of sight. Speaking of Russell Dickerson, he should lose a tiny bit of audience as he continues to remain rather stagnant in the teens. Blake Shelton also doesn’t move much with his latest single “Come Back As A Country Boy” which has allowed Dierks & Co to really close the gap as “Beers On Me” continues to do really well. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde should stay at #18 for a second week in a row but “Never Wanted To Be That Girl” has bounced back in terms of audience gains compared to last week, still not anything great but it’s better than last week and the ladies at the very least should outgain Blake Shelton and Russell Dickerson this week.
I don’t want this week to be Callista Clark’s push week but something about the gains feels suspicious to me that I think this week is push week and it is her final week. That being said those gains should get Callista back into the Top 20 with a peak of #19 which for a new female artist is not a bad peak at all. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson “Never Say Never”, Hardy “Give Heaven Some Hell”, Keith Urban “Wild Hearts”, and Miranda Lambert “If I Was A Cowboy” will each take a step back this week in terms of position but none of them are in immediate danger of leaving soon even if Cole Swindell and Lainey Wilson are the only one who I am feeling confident about going all the way. Luke Combs goes for radio adds a week from tomorrow but it is easy to forget that since “Doin This” is absolutely rocking up the charts and stands a solid chance of passing at least a few of the songs just above it (Cole/Lainey, Hardy, Keith Urban, and Miranda Lambert).
Thomas Rhett should move back down to #25 with “Slow Down Summer” but the gains this week are finally starting to pick up. Jake Owen and Luke Bryan however continue to flounder in the 20s in both position and gains as “Best Thing Since Backroads” and “Up” did hardly anything this week. Same can’t be said for Tim McGraw who should move up to #27 and has started to find his stride in the Top 30. Ernest & Morgan Wallen “Flower Shops” only moved up to #29 but make no mistake it is on fire and it should probably hit the Top 25 next week. Rounding out the Top 30 is Maren Morris who is re-entering the Top 30 with “Circles Around This Town”.
In the back half of the chart Jason Aldean rockets up the chart after his hangover week while Dan + Shay struggle to gain much, and Lauren Alaina/Jon Pardi break even which is not good for them as like Dan + Shay they're gonna lose ACC spins next weekend, and honestly with “Good Ole Boy” trending a bit on TikTok and showing some genuine interest it may be best to let “Getting Over Him” go in favor of that. I expect singles from Walker Hayes, Scotty McCreery, Frank Ray, Brothers Osborne, Dylan Scott, Chris Young/Mitchell Tenpenny, Tenille Arts, Taylor Swift/Chris Stapleton, Drew Parker, Chris Janson, Caroline Jones, Chase Rice, and Morgan Evans should all fall at least one spot on the chart and while some should recover (Walker Hayes, Scotty McCreery, Dylan Scott, Chris Young/Mitchell Tenpenny) some of them are in legit trouble of leaving the chart sooner than later (mainly Brothers Osborne, Tenille Arts, Taylor Swift, Chris Janson). Also due to Chris Lane going recurrent tonight on Mediabase I have to think Big Loud pulls the plug on “Fill Them Boots" soon after, hence why the song has a last week label on it
Finally to wrap up this commentary on a brighter note singles from Adele/Chris Stapleton, Justin Moore, Ingrid Andress/Sam Hunt, and Niko Moon all had great weeks for their section of the chart and lastly thanks to KKGO early airplay and going for adds tomorrow Lady A should be able to sneak into #60 on the chart with “What A Song Can Do” as they begin their chart climb after “Like A Lady” under-performed. Now if they aren’t in look for Conner Smith to be instead with “Learn From It”
Songs Likely To Leave Soon Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter “Thinking Bout You” Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood “If I Didn’t Love You” Michael Ray “Whiskey and Rain” Callista Clark “It’s Cause I Am” Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton “I Bet You Think About Me” Chris Lane “Fill Them Boots”
Songs In Trouble Dan + Shay “Steal My Love” Lauren Alaina & Jon Pardi “Getting Over Him” Brothers Osborne “I’m Not For Everyone” Tenille Arts “Back Then, Right Now” Drew Parker “While You’re Gone” Chris Janson “Bye Mom”
Songs To Debut/Return Soon Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A” Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” Conner Smith “Learn From It” Priscilla Block “My Bar” Zac Brown Band “Out In The Middle” Kip Moore “Crazy One More Time”
Final Thoughts So looking ahead to next week Michael Ray is a lock to go recurrent (this time it will happen) and given the gains Callista Clark should also be going recurrent which should help the charts somewhat not to mention a fair chunk of pretty weak singles that could also leave next week (Lauren Alaina, Taylor Swift, and Chris Lane being the front runners) and we could be in for our first house cleaning of the year for the chart, especially with new singles from Priscilla Block (I think she is in for a really good add day tomorrow), Kip Moore, Zac Brown Band, Elvie Shane, Gabby Barrett, and Kenny Chesney all probably hitting the chart within the next month, that’s not to mention Jameson Rodgers who is trying to find his spot on the chart, having a housecleaning for the chart is definitely necessary imo.
But that’s all for me this week. If you are reading this, have a great week and stay tuned for next week and what's in store.
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raylatch98
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Joined: April 2018
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 6, 2022 11:00:31 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Chris Stapleton "You Should Probably Leave" 2. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 3. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" 4-5. Kane Brown "One Mississippi" 4-5. Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt" 6. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 7. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 8. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood "If I Didn't Love You" (last week) 9. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 10. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 11-12. Sam Hunt "23" 11-12. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 13. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 14. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 15. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 16. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 17-18. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 17-18. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 19. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 20. Luke Combs "Doin' This" 21. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 22. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 23. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 24. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 25. Luke Bryan "Up" 26. Ernest & Morgan Wallen “Flower Shops” 27. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 28. Maren Morris “Circles Around This Town” 29-30. Jason Aldean “Trouble With A Heartbreak” 29-30. Walker Hayes "AA" 31. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" 32. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 33. Parmalee "Take My Name" 34-36. Dylan Scott "New Truck" 34-36. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 34-36. Brothers Osborne "I'm Not For Everyone" 37-38. Adele & Chris Stapleton "Easy On Me" 37-38. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 39. Toby Keith "Old School" 40-41. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" 40-41. Lee Brice “Soul” 42. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 43-45. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" 43-45. Ingrid Andress & Sam Hunt “Wishful Drinking” 43-45. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" 46. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days” 47-49. Chris Janson "Bye Mom” 47-49. Brett Young “You Didn’t” 47-49. Old Dominion “No Hard Feelings” 50-52. Midland "Sunrise Tells The Story" 50-52. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" 50-52. Caroline Jones "Come In (But Don't Make Yourself Comfortable)" (last week?) 53. Mitchell Tenpenny “Truth About You” 54. Morgan Evans "Love Is Real" 55. Zac Brown Band “Out In The Middle” 56. Conner Smith “Learn From It” 57. Morgan Wallen “Wasted On You” 58-60. Lady A “What A Song Can Do” 58-60. Kameron Marlowe “Giving You Up” 58-60. Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A”
New & Active Priscilla Block “My Bar” Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” Kip Moore “Crazy One More Time” Chayce Beckham & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me” Joe Nichols “Good Day For Living” Gabby Barrett “Pick Me Up”
Going Recurrent/Drop Outs Callista Clark “It’s Cause I Am” Peak #20, Weeks: 45 Lauren Alaina & Jon Pardi “Getting Over Him” Peak #29, Weeks: 48
Commentary A new week with a new #1 and a couple of dropouts of songs that have been kind of stagnant for a while and a whole lot of movement on the chart this week.
Chris Stapleton will pick up his second Billboard #1 with “You Should Probably Leave” now I don’t expect this to spend another week at #1 but it shouldn’t have an absolute collapse down the chart like “Starting Over” did last year. Morgan Wallen is in the runner up spot with “Sand In My Boots” and Jimmie Allen/Brad Paisley pick up the bronze medal this week with “Freedom Was A Highway” and given the CCUSA co-hosting schedule they (Jimmie/Brad) will go for the top spot next week and I imagine they will get it which will mark Jimmie’s third Billboard #1 and for Brad Paisley his first since “Perfect Storm” back in 2015. Kane Brown will enter the Top 5 this week with “One Mississippi” as last weeks #1 “Buy Dirt” by Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan begins its descent down. That being said I do think Jordan Davis should snag in one last week next week on the chart.
After spending 12 weeks in the Top 5, Dustin and Mackenzie dip out with the former six week #1 “Thinking Bout You” as they should be at #6 this week. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney should enter the Top 5 next week with “Half Of My Hometown”. Also this should finally be the final week for Jason Aldean and Carrie Underwood’s duet as I do think Elle King/Miranda Lambert are within range spin wise to send the duet recurrent next week. Parker McCollum struggled to gain any traction this week with “To Be Loved By You” but I do think his song is still fine and look for Cody Johnson to round out the Top 10 with “Til You Can’t” which is absolutely flying up the chart and will be his first Billboard Top 10 and is hitting the Top 10 in only 19 weeks on the chart which is really fast for a 2022 single on country radio.
Like mentioned before “Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home)” should enter the Billboard Top 10 next week as the song has really found it’s stride the last couple of weeks. Sam Hunt is getting temporarily bounced from the Top 10, but “23” is doing fine still, not outstanding but good enough. Eric Church struggled a bit this week with “Heart On Fire” and out of all the songs in the Top 15 this is one I am struggling to determine how well it will do since the callout score is not great (very low positive scores). Russell Dickerson should spend another week at #14 with “Home Sweet” but he did better than last week. That being said Dierks Bentley & Co are starting to close the gap on Russell and I still think Triple Tigers is probably just aiming for a Mediabase Top 10 peak before cutting this song loose (at #12 on Mediabase as of this writing). I will take this week to say that “Beers On Me” should be #1 bound as it has found the fire and has done pretty well since hitting the Top 20.
Blake Shelton “Come Back As A Country Boy” and Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde “Never Wanted To Be That Girl” struggled this week but I do think the latter will pick the pace back up given the good callout scores that came in this week. As for Blake Shelton, his callout scores are pretty bad to where I do think Blake’s best case scenario is a Top 10 finish. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson continues to do well and actually stands a decent chance to pass Carly/Ashley. Hardy continues to climb slowly and spends another week at #19 and I imagine it will be another week at #19 as Luke Combs should pass him next week as “Doin This” is doing very well as one would expect from a Luke Combs song as he enters the Top 20 replacing this week’s dropout Callista Clark.
Keith Urban and Miranda Lambert continue to wait just outside the Top 20 with “Wild Hearts” and “If I Was A Cowboy”. Thomas Rhett continues to post solid gains for “Slow Down Summer” after a less than ideal start during the new year. Jake Owen should move up to #24 with his latest single and hopefully with the good callout scores Jake Owen can start doing well again. But this week won’t be that week as “Best Things Since Backroads” struggled this week. Luke Bryan, Ernest/Morgan Wallen, and Maren Morris all have solid week of gains while Tim McGraw goes up a bit slower. Lastly look for Walker Hayes and Jason Aldean to re-enter the Top 30 this week.
Dan + Shay get pushed again out of the Top 30 with “Steal My Love” as they continue to struggle on the chart. Scotty McCreery and Parmalee continue to do well with their latest singles as they are starting near the Top 30. Frank Ray, Dylan Scott, and Brothers Osborne continue to slowly climb the charts with their latest singles “Country Look Good On You”, “New Truck”, and “I’m Not For Everyone” respectively. Not much for gains for Adele and “Easy On Me” or Toby Keith “Old School” as Justin Moore should blast into the Top 40 with “Woman You Love” and Tenille Arts either sneaks back into the Top 40 with “Back Then Right Now” or Lee Brice claims the last spot with “Soul”
In the 40s and 50s Taylor Swift (& Chris Stapleton) “I Bet You Think About Me” and Chris Janson “Bye Mom” should re-bullet on both charts after being near death as both would have been sent recurrent on Mediabase. Ingrid Andress/Sam Hunt “Wishful Drinking” and Niko Moon “Paradise To Me” have very solid weeks and Morgan Wade also had a solid week with her debut single. Slow weeks for Chris Young/Mitchell Tenpenny, Brett Young, Old Dominion, Midland, Chase Rice, Conner Smith, Kameron Marlowe, and Lady A don’t gain much in terms of audience this week. On the flipside Zac Brown Band and Dillon Carmichael should debut this week with their latest singles and next week I would fully expect Priscilla Block to debut as despite not being on the chart “My Bar” is off to a very solid start after going for radio adds last week.
Songs Likely To Leave Soon Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan “Buy Dirt” Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter “Thinking Bout You” Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood “If I Didn’t Love You” Caroline Jones “Come In (But Don’t Make Yourself Comfortable)”
Songs In Trouble Dan + Shay “Steal My Love” Brothers Osborne “I’m Not For Everyone” Toby Keith “Old School” Tenille Arts “Back Then, Right Now” Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton “I Bet You Think About Me”
Songs To Debut/Return Soon Priscilla Block “My Bar” Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” Kip Moore “Crazy One More Time” Gabby Barrett “Pick Me Up”
Final Thoughts Jason/Carrie should go recurrent next week, beyond that I don’t really see anyone going recurrent. That being said I do think next week will be the last week for both “Buy Dirt” and “Thinking Bout You”. Priscilla Block should debut this week, and I am excited to see how tomorrow shakes out add wise for Elvie Shane and Gabby Barrett as I imagine radio is interested in playing their new singles. But that’s it for me and see you all next week, take care.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 13, 2022 11:34:34 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" 2. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 3-4. Kane Brown "One Mississippi" 3-4. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 5. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 6-7. Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt" (last week?) 6-7. Chris Stapleton "You Should Probably Leave" (last week) 8. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 9. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 10. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 11. Sam Hunt "23" 12. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 13-14. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 13-14. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" (last week?) 15. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 16. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 17. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 18. Luke Combs "Doin' This" 19. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 20. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 21-22. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 21-22. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 23-24. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 23-24. Luke Bryan "Up" 25-27. Ernest & Morgan Wallen “Flower Shops” 25-27. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 25-27. Jason Aldean “Trouble With A Heartbreak” 28-29. Maren Morris “Circles Around This Town” 28-29. Walker Hayes "AA" 30. Dustin Lynch “Party Mode” (New!) 31. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 32. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" 33. Parmalee "Take My Name" 34. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 35-36. Brothers Osborne "I'm Not For Everyone" 35-36. Dylan Scott "New Truck" 37-38. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 37-38. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 39. Lee Brice “Soul” 40-41. Adele & Chris Stapleton "Easy On Me" (last week) 40-41. Toby Keith "Old School" (last week?) 42. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" 43. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" 44. Ingrid Andress & Sam Hunt “Wishful Drinking” 45. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" 46-47. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days” 46-47. Midland "Sunrise Tells The Story" 48. Gabby Barrett “Pick Me Up” (New!) 49-52. Mitchell Tenpenny “Truth About You” 49-52. Chris Janson "Bye Mom” 49-52. Brett Young “You Didn’t” 49-52. Old Dominion “No Hard Feelings” 53. Zac Brown Band “Out In The Middle” 54-55. Caroline Jones "Come In (But Don't Make Yourself Comfortable)" 54-55. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" 56. Morgan Evans "Love Is Real" 57. Kameron Marlowe “Giving You Up” 58. Morgan Wallen “Wasted On You” 59. Conner Smith “Learn From It” (last week?) 60. Priscilla Block “My Bar” (New!)
New & Active Kenny Chesney “Everyone She Knows” Lady A “What A Song Can Do” Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” Chayce Beckham & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me” Kip Moore “Crazy One More Time” Elvie Shane “Country Roads”
Going Recurrent/Drop Outs Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood “If I Didn’t Love You” Peak #1 (3 Weeks) Weeks: 29 Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A”, Peak #59, Weeks: 1 (Still Being Promoted) Taylor Swift “Love Story” (Taylor’s Version), Peak #57, Weeks: 2
Commentary Commentary will return next week since it’s Super Bowl weekend and I am busy. If you really want commentary, almost everyone struggled to gain pretty much anything outside of a handful of songs below the Top 10. That's it.
Songs Likely To Leave Soon Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan “Buy Dirt” Chris Stapleton “You Should Probably Leave” Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter “Thinking Bout You” Russell Dickerson “Home Sweet” Adele & Chris Stapleton “Easy On Me” Toby Keith “Old School”
Songs In Trouble Dan + Shay “Steal My Love” Brothers Osborne “I’m Not For Everyone” Tenille Arts “Back Then, Right Now” Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton “I Bet You Think About Me” Caroline Jones “Come In (But Don’t Make Yourself Comfortable)” Chase Rice “If I Were Rock & Roll” Morgan Evans “Love Is Real” Conner Smith “Learn From It”
Songs To Debut/Return Soon Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A” Jon Pardi “Last Night Lonely” Kenny Chesney “Everyone She Knows” Lady A “What A Song Can Do” Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” Kip Moore “Crazy One More Time”
Final Thoughts So some quick final thoughts. This week was the week from hell and don’t be shocked if on tomorrow's Billboard chart a lot of songs gain hardly anything at all.
Looking to next week Chris Stapleton, Adele (& Chris Stapleton), are both locks imo to go recurrent with Jon Pardi for sure debuting next week with his new lead single, and Kenny Chesney also standing a good chance to debut with his new single. I also think singles from Jordan Davis, Russell Dickerson, Toby Keith can easily go recurrent and same for pretty much any song listed in the trouble section. Obviously not all 14 would go recurrent, that is insane, but I definitely think it won’t just be Adele and Chris Stapleton leaving next week.
Stay tuned for next week as it should be a fun week and hopefully a housecleaning can come on the chart and sort some of this stuff out. Have a great week!
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Feb 13, 2022 12:22:21 GMT -5
“Obviously not all 14 would go recurrent, that is insane,”
That would be the wildest thing but in reality that comment reminds me of when I was a kid and I would listen to the top 40 countdown on the radio and no joke some weeks there would be 5-6 debuts! I always loved those weeks cause a bunch of songs would move up a bunch of spots!
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 14, 2022 20:33:07 GMT -5
So 18 songs went bulletless tonight on Billboard and here are some of my quick thoughts on whether or not they go recurrent next week, since I do think we are on the cusp of a housecleaning given how many songs lost their bullets.
I think Chris Stapleton and Jason/Carrie are 100% locks to go recurrent next week. Maybe 1 of Jordan/Luke or Dustin/Mackenzie go recurrent depending on how spins shake out next week. Kane Brown should re-bullet next week with "One Mississippi" and still stands a solid chance of hitting #1 on both charts. Sam Hunt should also re-bullet with "23" same with Blake Shelton's latest. However I won't be shocked if Triple Tigers cut "Home Sweet" since it has really been stalling out lately. Miranda Lambert and Luke Bryan should re-bullet but I am starting to get concerned for the former while the latter is still just existing. I don't think all 4 will go recurrent but all of Adele/Stapleton, Brothers Osborne, Toby Keith, and Tenille Arts are weak enough I won't be shocked if they go recurrent next week. Lastly while singles from Chase Rice, Niko Moon, and Brett Young should re-bullet next week I don't feel like any of their long terms prospects sans Brett Young look promising at all, oh and ZBB also lost their bullet but "Out In The Middle" is so young it is a non event imo.
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gardyfan
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Post by gardyfan on Feb 14, 2022 20:43:53 GMT -5
So 18 songs went recurrent tonight on Billboard I think you meant went bulletless.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 14, 2022 20:45:33 GMT -5
So 18 songs went recurrent tonight on Billboard I think you meant went bulletless. Fixed
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 20, 2022 19:05:38 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 2. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 3. Kane Brown "One Mississippi“ 4. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 5-6. Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan "Buy Dirt" 5-6. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 7. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 8. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 9. Sam Hunt "23" 10-12. Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley "Freedom Was A Highway" (last week) 10-12. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 10-12. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 13. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 14. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 15-17. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 15-17. Luke Combs "Doin' This" 15-17. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 18. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 19. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 20. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 21. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 22. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 23. Luke Bryan "Up" 24-25. Walker Hayes "AA" 24-25. Jason Aldean “Trouble With A Heartbreak” 26-28. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 26-28. Maren Morris “Circles Around This Town” 26-28. Ernest & Morgan Wallen “Flower Shops” 29. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" 30. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 31. Parmalee "Take My Name" 32. Jon Pardi “Last Night Lonely” (New!) 33-34. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 33-34. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 35-36. Dylan Scott “New Truck” 35-36. Brothers Osborne "I'm Not For Everyone" 37. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 38. Toby Keith "Old School" 39-40. Kenny Chesney “Everyone She Knows” 39-40. Lee Brice “Soul” 41-43. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" 41-43. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" 41-43. Dustin Lynch “Party Mode” 44. Ingrid Andress & Sam Hunt “Wishful Drinking” 45. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days” 46-47. Midland "Sunrise Tells The Story" 46-47. Mitchell Tenpenny “Truth About You” 48-50. Caroline Jones "Come In (But Don't Make Yourself Comfortable)" 48-50. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" 48-50. Chris Janson "Bye Mom” 51-52. Old Dominion “No Hard Feelings” 51-52. Gabby Barrett “Pick Me Up” 53-54. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" (last week?) 53-54. Brett Young “You Didn’t” 55. Zac Brown Band “Out In The Middle” 56-59. Conner Smith “Learn From It” 56-59. Kameron Marlowe “Giving You Up” 56-59. Priscilla Block “My Bar” (New!) 56-59. Morgan Wallen “Wasted On You” (Re-Entry!) 60. Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A”
New & Active Lady A “What A Song Can Do” Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” Eli Young Band “Love Talking” Chayce Beckham & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me” Kip Moore “Crazy One More Time” Elvie Shane “Country Roads”
Going Recurrent/Drop Outs Chris Stapleton “You Should Probably Leave” Peak #1, Weeks: 39 Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood “If I Didn’t Love You” Peak #1 (3 Weeks) Weeks: 30 Adele & Chris Stapleton “Easy On Me” Peak #25, Weeks: 13
Commentary A new #1 takes the crown and a mini housecleaning for the charts this week as well. Fun week and a lot to say this time.
At the top of the chart for better or for worse this week is Morgan Wallen “Sand In My Boots”, his first #1 from 2020 with “More Than My Hometown”. Kelsea Ballerini moves into the runner up spot with “Half Of My Hometown” as she is coming in very strong near the end of her run as she should be #1 once Kane Brown is done. Speaking of Kane Brown he will be in the bronze position with “One Mississippi” and he should be #1 this time next week. That being said I do think given the songs slow time in the Top 10 it is probably gonna be a decently fast faller once it’s done being promoted. At #4 will be Parker McCollum’s second Top 5 single with “To Be Loved By You”. Huge duets from Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan or Dustin Lynch/Mackenzie Porter should round out the Top 5 as neither song is in a huge rush to leave the chart.
After scoring his first Billboard Top 10 last week Cody Johnson should move up to #7 as he begins to eye his first #1 with “Til You Can’t”, and while more than likely it will be after Parker McCollum peaks, “Til You Can’t” is moving so fast on the chart I do think there is a non zero chance Cody Johnson restricts Parker McCollum to a Mediabase only #1. Elle King & Miranda Lambert should re-enter the Top 10 as they pick up more Top 10 conversions and the same can be said for Sam Hunt. both should hit the #1 spot as long as Cody Johnson and Warner Bros doesn’t get super grabby with the #1. After hitting #1 last week Jimmie Allen/Brad Paisley fall hard with “Freedom Was A Highway” this week and could land outside the Top 10 depending if Dierks Bentley’s “Beers On Me” or Eric Church “Heart On Fire” passes the former #1. Very clear to see country radio was done with this song. Speaking of which, Dierks Bentley continues to do very well with “Beers On Me” while Eric Church just doesn’t gain much audience this week as “Heart On Fire” just exists. Now if Eric Church starts struggling to get Top 10 conversions then I think he will be in some serious trouble. So these next couple of weeks are for me gonna be very indicative of the songs future.
Russell Dickerson moves up to #13 and recovered somewhat on Billboard from last week’s disaster, but “Home Sweet” is another song that I do think is nearing the end of the road. It’s at #12 on Mediabase and if I were the label I would max for a Top 10 Mediabase peak which seems doable this week as I feel like the longer the label holds on the more it’s gonna just stay in the #11 to #15 range not doing much. Carly Pearce/Ashley McBryde had a really strong week with their duet as they enter the Top 15 this week. The last spot in the Top 15 should be a close finish between Blake Shelton “Come Back As A Country Boy” which continues to stall out, Luke Combs “Doin’ This” which continues to rocket up the chart, and Cole Swindell/Lainey Wilson “Never Say Never” which continues it’s really stable chart run. The latter two are definitely future #1s while I think Blake Shelton’s best case scenario is a Top 10 peak. Hardy moves up to #18 this week in his 51st week with a decent week of gains. That being said I still feel like time is running out for Hardy to go all the way to #1 with “Give Heaven Some Hell” as while this week wasn’t bad I don’t think it was good enough. Keith Urban re-enters the Top 20 while Thomas Rhett has begun to finally hit his stride with “Slow Down Summer”. It’s still not moving as fast as a typical lead Thomas Rhett single should (#20 after 16 weeks is pretty underwhelming) but things are looking up for it.
I am gonna be optimistic and assume “If I Was A Cowboy” slowing down is more due to Miranda Lambert’s duet with Elle King then the song itself as Miranda has hit a wall the last few weeks it feels like with “If I Was A Cowboy” as she stands a decent chance of losing her bullet again. Jake Owen and Luke Bryan have decent weeks and testing does make me think “Best Things Since Backroads” is in it for the long haul. I still don’t feel great for “Up” but it will probably hang around the chart for a little longer. The latest singles from Jason Aldean (“Trouble With A Heartbreak”), Walker Hayes (“AA”), Maren Morris (“Circles Around This Town”), and Ernest/Morgan Wallen (“Flower Shops”) all continue to do very well with the former two especially having great weeks. Tim McGraw unfortunately for him is getting a bit lost in the shuffle with all these heavier hitters around him. Rounding out the Top 30 should be Dan + Shay “Steal My Love” and Scotty McCreery “Damn Straight” with the latter having much more longevity.
In the 30s Parmalee continues to do well with “Take My Name” as they begin to near the Top 30. Jon Pardi should debut right at #32 like last weeks big debut from Dustin Lynch just with a bit less audience than Dustin had last week. Frank Ray has a slow week while the match has been lit for Justin Moore’s latest “With A Woman You Love” and should land at #33 or #34. Uneventful weeks for Dylan Scott who just announced his new album (as such “New Truck” should be safe until August theoretically speaking) and Brothers Osborne. Chris Young/Mitchell Tenpenny should move another notch to #37 while Kenny Chsney should blast into the Top 40 in his second week with “Everyone She Knows”.
Tenille Arts doesn’t gain much of anything this week with “Back Then Right Now” and at this point I think the song is just barely hanging by. Dustin Lynch has hangover week while Taylor Swift also doesn’t move up. Decent weeks for Morgan Wade and Ingrid Andress/Sam Hunt as both continue to hold great potential with their singles. Midland has a setback this week in gains while Mitchell Tenpenny has a really good week with “Truth About You”. The last 3 spots in the Top 50 should go to Caroline Jones, Niko Moon, and Chris Janson in some order. But none of the three look very promising chart wise. Provided Caroline Jones is the only one I see leaving soon but neither “Paradise To Me” nor “Bye Mom” are showing much potential.
Finally in the 50s, Old Dominion slowly gained audience this week with “No Hard Feelings” while Gabby Barrett's “Pick Me Up” continues its really promising start. Chase Rice and Brett Young both continue to not do much. I do think the latter has potential to be a sleeper hit but Chase Rice is really stalling his wheels out. Zac Brown Band gained back audience lost from last week as they do okay this week. Conner Smith and Kameron Marlowe also don’t do much this week and neither shows much promise. Morgan Wallen’s non single “Wasted On You” should re-enter as Priscilla Block should debut this week with “My Bar” as it is off to a very solid start. Last look for Dillon Carmichael to round out the chart at #60 with "Son Of A".
Songs Likely To Leave Soon Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan “Buy Dirt” Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter “Thinking Bout You” Russell Dickerson “Home Sweet” Brothers Osborne “I’m Not For Everyone” Toby Keith “Old School” Chase Rice “If I Were Rock & Roll”
Songs In Trouble Blake Shelton “Come Back As A Country Boy” Miranda Lambert “If I Was A Cowboy” Dan + Shay “Steal My Love” Tenille Arts “Back Then, Right Now” Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton “I Bet You Think About Me” Caroline Jones “Come In (But Don’t Make Yourself Comfortable)” Conner Smith “Learn From It”
Songs To Debut/Return Soon Lady A “What A Song Can Do” Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” Kip Moore “Crazy One More Time”
Final Thoughts Next week “Freedom Was A Highway” should go recurrent and I would keep an eye on Brothers Osborne as they are really struggling to stay afloat. Beyond that I don’t see any 100% surefire locks to leave.
What is interesting is that none of the songs that aren’t charting are really moving much. Lady A had a great add date with “What A Song Can Do” but since then has been pretty much floating. Jameson Rodgers can’t seem to find any traction to get back on the chart and Chayce Beckham/Lindsay Ell are also not doing much yet, not to mention Kip Moore and Elvie Shane's mediocre starts.
But next week will hopefully be a fun enough week. Hope you have a great week if you are reading this and thank you.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 27, 2022 15:17:25 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Kane Brown "One Mississippi“ 2. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 3. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 4. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 5. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 6-7. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 6-7. Sam Hunt "23" 8. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 9. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood “If I Didn’t Love You” (last week) 10. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 11. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 12. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 13-14. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 13-14. Luke Combs "Doin' This" 15. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 16. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 17. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 18-19. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 18-19. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 20. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 21. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 22-24. Luke Bryan "Up" 22-24. Walker Hayes "AA" 22-24. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 25. Ernest & Morgan Wallen “Flower Shops” 26-27. Jason Aldean “Trouble With A Heartbreak” 26-27. Maren Morris “Circles Around This Town” 28. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 29. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" 30. Parmalee "Take My Name" 31. Dylan Scott “New Truck” 32-33. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 32-33. Brothers Osborne "I'm Not For Everyone" (last week?) 34-35. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 34-35. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 36-37. Dustin Lynch “Party Mode” 36-37. Kenny Chesney “Everyone She Knows” 38. Lee Brice “Soul” 39-40. Toby Keith "Old School" (last week?) 39-40. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" 41. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" (last week?) 42. Ingrid Andress & Sam Hunt “Wishful Drinking” 43-44. Midland "Sunrise Tells The Story" 43-44. Mitchell Tenpenny “Truth About You” 45-47. Old Dominion “No Hard Feelings” 45-47. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days” 45-47. Jon Pardi “Last Night Lonely” 48-50. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" (last week?) (40% chance of going recurrent) 48-50. Chris Janson "Bye Mom” 48-50. Brett Young “You Didn’t” 51-52. Morgan Wallen “Wasted On You” 51-52. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" 53. Zac Brown Band “Out In The Middle” 54. Gabby Barrett “Pick Me Up” 55-56. Priscilla Block “My Bar” 55-56. Conner Smith “Learn From It” 57-58. Kameron Marlowe “Giving You Up” 57-58. Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A” 59-60. Lady A “What A Song Can Do” (Re-Entry!) 59-60. Chayce Beckham & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me” (New!)
New & Active Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” Eli Young Band “Love Talking” Clay Walker “Catching Up With An Ol’ Memory” Kip Moore “Crazy One More Time” Elvie Shane “Country Roads” Hannah Ellis “Us”
Going Recurrent/Drop Outs Jordan Davis & Luke Bryan “Buy Dirt”, Peak #1 (2 Weeks), Weeks: 32 Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley “Freedom Was A Highway”, Peak #1, Weeks: 56
Commentary/Highlights This week it is so hard to even say much of anything. There’s a few passes here and there, a few songs gaining a lot of audience and a lot of songs should be setting new peaks. But the audience gains themselves are pretty lackluster across the board.
So starting off at the top Kane Brown should be #1 with “One Mississippi”. I do think Kelsea Ballerini has a small chance to block Kane from #1 but I put it no higher than 5% so that’s why I am not putting it up as much of a chance. Speaking of Kelsea Ballerini she should score her fifth Billboard #1 next week with “Half Of My Hometown”, her first since “Legends” over 4 years ago. After hitting #1 last week Morgan Wallen dips back to #3 as he begins his descent. It’s not a fast fall like Jimmie Allen’s latest and “Sand In My Boots” will probably spend at least a couple more weeks in the Top 10. Parker McCollum moves up to #4 and wull probably go for #1 after Kelsea Ballerini. Now the gap between Kelsea and Parker is pretty big (about 4 million in audience on Billboard) so if Kelsea tries to go for a second week of pushing to the top I do think “To Be Loved By You” could be restricted to a Mediabase only #1.
Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter’s former 6 week #1 continues to just hang around in the Top 6 range of the chart and continue it’s longevity. That being said I do think next week it will fall behind Cody Johnson, Sam Hunt, and Elle/Miranda. Speaking of those three singles, each continues to do well. I still maintain Cody Johnson is a 100% lock to go #1 on Billboard while “23” and “Drunk” should also hit #1 if Cody Johnson and Warner are satisfied with one week. If Cody Johnson goes for multiple weeks I do think both Sam Hunt and Elle/Miranda are in trouble. Dierks Bentley looks to sneak pass Eric Church as he should score his 28th Top 10 hit, while Hardy scores his second, and Breland would score his first as “Beers On Me” continues to do very well on the chart. As for Eric Church this week did enough for me to think “Heart On Fire” can last a bit longer but I still doubt it’s #1 chances.
Russell Dickerson is up to #12 this week on Billboard as he inches closer to the top 10 with “Home Sweet” (he will be Top 10 this week on Mediabase) it is important to note he is co-hosting CCUSA the week after Parker McCollum so I imagine Russell Dickerson has a few weeks left on the chart. Realistically I think he will get Top 10 on both charts but I don’t see Top 5 happening on either Billboard or Mediabase. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde continue to do well with “Never Wanted To Be That Girl” however if it isn’t this week it will be next week where Luke Combs “Doin This” passes the ladies as Luke Combs as expected is doing amazing on the chart. Rounding out the Top 15 is Cole Swindell/Lainey Wilson “Never Say Never” which continues to hang in there and do fine.
Callout scores are getting for Blake Shelton but I still think “Come Back As A Country Boy'' ceiling is Top 10 at best as this week it continued to not do much of anything. Also not doing much but at least gaining a new chart peak of #17 is Hardy's “Give Heaven Some Hell”. I also don’t see this hitting #1, it’s at 52 weeks as of tomorrow and the most a song promoted to country radio nowadays is 60+ weeks and I don’t think Hardy can gain 16 spots on the chart within that time frame. Keith Urban “Wild Hearts” had a good enough week, it is on a similar pace to “One Too Many” (28 weeks “One Too Many” was at #19 on the chart). Thomas Rhett enters the Top 20 in his 17th week with “Slow Down Summer” as he continues to do okay. After spending the last couple of weeks without a bullet Miranda Lambert regains her bullet on Billboard this week and enters the Top 20 with “If I Was A Cowboy” as it becomes her 24th Top 20 hit on Billboard.
In the 20s Jake Owen nears the Top 20, but “Best Things Since Backroads” is still not doing much on the chart. Luke Bryan continues to underperform with “Up” as it is now Week 21 and it is still not in the Top 20 and also stands a solid chance of getting passed by Walker Hayes “AA”, and/or Tim McGraw “7500 OBO”. Ernest should move into the Top 25 with “Flower Shops” which continues to do very well for a debut single. Jason Alldean hit the brakes a bit this week with “Trouble With A Heartbreak” and it was also a bit slower week for Maren Morris. Scotty McCreery should move up to #28 as he continues to do well with “Damn Straight” and is kind of on his own island as he is a good distance away from Dan + Shay. Speaking of which “Steal My Love” should re-enter the Top 30 this week but it’s still not doing much of anything due to bad callout scores. Parmalee should sneak into the Top 30 in just their 20th week with “Take My Name” which for a song by 2022 standards is a pretty great pace.
In the 30s Dylan Scott enters the Mediabase Top 30 this week as he is just outside the Top 30 on Billboard and continues to show very strong promise with “New Truck”. Frank Ray and Brothers Osborne will both set new peaks on the chart tomorrow but neither had a good week of gains and I still think Brothers Osborne is hanging on by a thread and until they really turn it around every week could be their last. Chris Young/Mitchell Tenpenny “At The End Of A Bar” and Justin Moore’s “With A Woman You Love” continue to show great potential on the chart. In just his third week Kenny Chesney should enter the Top 40 with “Everyone She Knows” which is off to a very great start especially for a 5th single from an album. Lee Brice should enter the Top 40 in his 13th week on the chart with “Soul” and look for Taylor Swift to re-enter the Top 40 with “I Bet You Think About Me” which still is not doing much but continues to hang in there.
In the 40s, Tenille Arts is also looking to near the end of the road with “Back Then Right Now”. She should stay on the chart, but I won’t be shocked to see the song off the chart by the end of March. Ingrid Andress should set a new peak of #42 with “Wishful Drinking” but this week she did not gain much. Midland, Mitchell Tenpenny, and Old Dominion really took advantage of this week and in comparison to the songs around it all 3 of “Sunrise Tells The Story”, “Truth About You”, and “No Hard Feelings” respectively did pretty well. Jon Pardi should land in the Top 50 for the hangover week for his new single “Last Night Lonely” while Morgan Wade crashed this week with “Wilder Days”. Niko Moon should stay on the chart but he also had significant enough losses for his section of the chart I would not be that shocked if “Paradise To Me” was sent recurrent.
Singles from Chris Janson, Brett Young, Chase Rice, Zac Brown Band, Kameron Marlowe, and Dillon Carmichael should all move up in terms of position on the chart but none of them sans Zac Brown Band look to have long term hit potential and none of them should gain much audience this week, maybe Brett Young but I am still very iffy on “You Didn’t”. The songs that are looking to possibly go very far are Morgan Wallen “Wasted On You” which is nearing the Top 50 a full week before adds, Gabby Barrett “Pick Me Up” which is connecting very well with consumers and also off to a solid start with radio, and Priscilla Block “My Bar” which should at least move up to #56 this week. The last two slots on the chart is a re-entry from Lady A with their single “What A Song Can Do” and the duet from Chayce Beckham & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me”.
Songs Likely To Leave Soon Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter “Thinking Bout You” Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood “If I Didn’t Love You” Brothers Osborne “I’m Not For Everyone” Toby Keith “Old School” Tenille Arts “Back Then, Right Now” Niko Moon “Paradise To Me” Chase Rice “If I Were Rock & Roll”
Songs In Trouble Blake Shelton “Come Back As A Country Boy” Dan + Shay “Steal My Love” Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton “I Bet You Think About Me” Conner Smith “Learn From It”
Songs To Debut/Return Soon Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” Eli Young Band “Love Talking” Kassi Ashton “Dates In Pickup Trucks” (assuming a really good add date tomorrow) Kip Moore “Crazy One More Time”
Final Thoughts This week is just so odd. No huge debuts, and despite a lot of songs gaining new peaks it still feels oddly hollow. Next week Jason/Carrie should finally go recurrent but that is the only one locked in for me. Still be on the lookout for Brothers Osborne, Tenille Arts, and Toby Keith as I do think they could be off the chart as early as this time next week, not to mention Niko Moon.
But that’s all for me and my predictions. If you have read it please have a great day and thank you so much for reading this post and hopefully enjoying it.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Mar 6, 2022 18:55:33 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 2. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 3. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 4-5. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 4-5. Sam Hunt "23" 6-7. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 6-7. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 8. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood “If I Didn’t Love You” 9. Kane Brown "One Mississippi“ (last week) 10. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 11. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 12-14. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 12-14. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 12-14. Luke Combs "Doin' This" 15. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 16. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 17. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 18. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 19. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 20. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 21-23. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 21-23. Luke Bryan "Up" 21-23. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 24-25. Walker Hayes "AA" 24-25. Maren Morris “Circles Around This Town” 26. Ernest & Morgan Wallen “Flower Shops” 27. Jason Aldean “Trouble With A Heartbreak” 28. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 29. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" (last week?) 30. Parmalee "Take My Name" 31. Dylan Scott “New Truck” 32-33. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 32-33. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 34-36. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 34-36. Dustin Lynch “Party Mode” 34-36. Kenny Chesney “Everyone She Knows” 37. Lee Brice “Soul” 38-39. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" 38-39. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" [Toby Keith "Old School" (Potential Re-Entry!)] 40-42. Ingrid Andress & Sam Hunt “Wishful Drinking” 40-42. Jon Pardi “Last Night Lonely” 40-42. Morgan Wallen “Wasted On You” 43-44. Midland "Sunrise Tells The Story" 43-44. Mitchell Tenpenny “Truth About You” 45. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days” 46-47. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" 46-47. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" [Caroline Jones “Come In (But Don’t Make Yourself Comfortable)” (Potential Re-Entry)] 48-51. Old Dominion “No Hard Feelings” 48-51. Chris Janson "Bye Mom” 48-51. Brett Young “You Didn’t” 48-51. Zac Brown Band “Out In The Middle” 52-58. Conner Smith “Learn From It” 52-58. Priscilla Block “My Bar” 52-58. Lady A “What A Song Can Do” 52-58. Gabby Barrett “Pick Me Up” 52-58. Kameron Marlowe “Giving You Up” 52-58. Jackson Dean “Don’t Come Lookin” (New!) 52-58. Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A” 59. Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” 60. Chayce Beckham & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me”
New & Active Eli Young Band “Love Talking” Joe Nichols “Good Day For Living” Michael Ray “Holy Water” Clay Walker “Catching Up With An Ol’ Memory” Kip Moore “Crazy One More Time” Elvie Shane “Country Roads”
Going Recurrent/Drop Outs Brothers Osborne “I’m Not For Everyone” Peak #33 Weeks: 43
Commentary/Highlights So this week was a bit of a dud after having 3 songs drop out last week. This week it only looks like Brothers Osborne is going recurrent, and which has the potential to get offset by possibly one, both, or neither of Toby Keith “Old School” and/or Caroline Jones “Come In (But Don’t Make Yourself Comfortable)” re-entering Billboard after going recurrent the last couple of weeks. So spoiler not a ton to say.
Kelsea Ballerini will score her first #1 since “Legends” this week with “Half Of My Hometown”, I don’t expect it to happen but I kind of hope Black River goes for a second week for #1 since there is such a large gap between Kelsea and the #2 song which should be Parker McCollum’s “To Be Loved By You”. If Kelsea does try to go for another week I do think Parker is gonna be restricted to a MB only #1 but gut is telling me Parker McCollum gets both charts this time next week. Cody Johnson enters the Top 5 this week and should launch up to #3 scoring his first Top 5. The one thing that I am very intrigued by is how long will Warner Bros let “Til You Can’t” stay at the top since this song is by far the biggest song right now in country music and is also testing very well. Rounding out the Top 5 should be Morgan Wallen with his former #1 “Sand In My Boots” which continues its slow but stable descent, and Sam Hunt’s “23” which had a great week of gains.
Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter continue to hang in the Top 10 and should fall back to #6 with “Thinking Bout You” which continues to have such longevity on the chart. Elle King & Miranda Lambert continue to get closer to the Top 5 with “Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home)” as callout scores for it look promising for it to have at the very least a MB only #1 but I do think it will get both. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood should get a couple more weeks in the Top 10 since Eric Church will probably take Kane Brown’s Top 10 spot and there is still a sizable gap between “If I Didn’t Love You” and the next Top 10 contenders in Luke Combs “Doin This”.
In the teens literally everyone more than likely will stay in the same position with the only potential shakeups being with Luke Combs maybe passing Russell Dickerson or Carly Pearce/Ashley McBryde as all 3 will be very close in audience. I do get the sense that besides the aforementioned Luke Combs, Carly Pearce/Ashley McBryde, and Cole Swindell/Lainey Wilson, country radio isn’t that excited for any of the songs in the 11 to 20 range.
In the 20s, Tim McGraw begins to surge with “7500 OBO” while singles from Jake Owen and Luke Bryan are still underperforming. While Dan + Shay continue to stall out with “Steal My Love” which continues to underperform in every sense.
In the 30s, singles from Chris Young, Dustin Lynch, Lee Brice, and Tenille Arts all have really good weeks for this section of the chart and also solid enough weeks from Justin Moore and Kenny Chesney. Same can’t be said for Frank Ray who is still struggling with total non-event “Country Looks Good On You”. Also assuming Toby Keith does not return Ingrid Andress should enter the Top 40 with “Wishful Drinking” which continues to do pretty well.
In the 40s, Jon Pardi recovers from his hangover week with “Last Night Lonely”, and Morgan Wallen is having an expected fast start with “Wasted On You” while Old Dominion has a disaster week with “No Hard Feelings” as they should fall back a few spots at least.
Finally in the 50s new artist Jakson Dean should debut no matter what as he is off to a great start, also singles from Priscilla Block, Conner Smith, and Lady A have good weeks. Last weeks #59 and #60 song Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” and Chayce Beckham & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me” will also occupy the bottom of the chart assuming neither Toby Keith or Caroline Jones re-enter. However neither of them is looking strong at all.
Songs Likely To Leave Soon Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter “Thinking Bout You” Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood “If I Didn’t Love You” Kane Brown “One Mississippi” Russell Dickerson “Home Sweet” Dan + Shay “Steal My Love” Niko Moon “Paradise To Me” Chase Rice “If I Were Rock & Roll”
Songs In Trouble Blake Shelton “Come Back As A Country Boy” Tenille Arts “Back Then, Right Now” Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton “I Bet You Think About Me”
Songs To Debut/Return Soon Eli Young Band “Love Talking” Michael Ray “Holy Water” Joe Nichols “Good Day For Living” Kip Moore “Crazy One More Time” Kassi Ashton “Dates In Pickup Trucks”
Final Thoughts This week quite frankly for me was one of the most boring weeks to track, because while Brothers Osborne is going recurrent, having it potentially neutered by Toby Keith or Caroline Jones is annoying since we are trading one zombie of a song for another. Hopefully next week we have a housecleaning as there are just so many songs on the chart that imo need to get out. Here's hoping.
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dwindeezy
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Joined: May 2020
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Post by dwindeezy on Mar 6, 2022 22:53:32 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 601. Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney "Half Of My Hometown" 2. Parker McCollum "To Be Loved By You" 3. Cody Johnson "Til You Can't" 4-5. Morgan Wallen "Sand In My Boots" 4-5. Sam Hunt "23" 6-7. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter "Thinking Bout You" 6-7. Elle King & Miranda Lambert "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)" 8. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood “If I Didn’t Love You” 9. Kane Brown "One Mississippi“ (last week)10. Dierks Bentley, Breland & Hardy "Beers On Me" 11. Eric Church "Heart On Fire" 12-14. Russell Dickerson "Home Sweet" 12-14. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" 12-14. Luke Combs "Doin' This" 15. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson "Never Say Never" 16. Blake Shelton "Come Back As A Country Boy" 17. Hardy "Give Heaven Some Hell" 18. Keith Urban "Wild Hearts" 19. Thomas Rhett "Slow Down Summer" 20. Miranda Lambert "If I Was A Cowboy" 21-23. Jake Owen "Best Thing Since Backroads" 21-23. Luke Bryan "Up" 21-23. Tim McGraw "7500 OBO" 24-25. Walker Hayes "AA" 24-25. Maren Morris “Circles Around This Town” 26. Ernest & Morgan Wallen “Flower Shops” 27. Jason Aldean “Trouble With A Heartbreak” 28. Scotty McCreery "Damn Straight" 29. Dan + Shay "Steal My Love" (last week?)30. Parmalee "Take My Name" 31. Dylan Scott “New Truck” 32-33. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny "At The End Of A Bar" 32-33. Frank Ray "Country Looks Good On You" 34-36. Justin Moore "With A Woman You Love" 34-36. Dustin Lynch “Party Mode” 34-36. Kenny Chesney “Everyone She Knows” 37. Lee Brice “Soul” 38-39. Tenille Arts "Back Then, Right Now" 38-39. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton "I Bet You Think About Me" [Toby Keith "Old School" (Potential Re-Entry!)]40-42. Ingrid Andress & Sam Hunt “Wishful Drinking” 40-42. Jon Pardi “Last Night Lonely” 40-42. Morgan Wallen “Wasted On You” 43-44. Midland "Sunrise Tells The Story" 43-44. Mitchell Tenpenny “Truth About You” 45. Morgan Wade "Wilder Days” 46-47. Niko Moon "Paradise To Me" 46-47. Chase Rice "If I Were Rock & Roll" [Caroline Jones “Come In (But Don’t Make Yourself Comfortable)” (Potential Re-Entry)] 48-51. Old Dominion “No Hard Feelings” 48-51. Chris Janson "Bye Mom” 48-51. Brett Young “You Didn’t” 48-51. Zac Brown Band “Out In The Middle” 52-58. Conner Smith “Learn From It” 52-58. Priscilla Block “My Bar” 52-58. Lady A “What A Song Can Do” 52-58. Gabby Barrett “Pick Me Up” 52-58. Kameron Marlowe “Giving You Up” 52-58. Jackson Dean “Don’t Come Lookin” (New!)52-58. Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A” 59. Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” 60. Chayce Beckham & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me” New & ActiveEli Young Band “Love Talking” Joe Nichols “Good Day For Living” Michael Ray “Holy Water” Clay Walker “Catching Up With An Ol’ Memory” Kip Moore “Crazy One More Time” Elvie Shane “Country Roads” Going Recurrent/Drop OutsBrothers Osborne “I’m Not For Everyone” Peak #33 Weeks: 43 Commentary/HighlightsSo this week was a bit of a dud after having 3 songs drop out last week. This week it only looks like Brothers Osborne is going recurrent, and which has the potential to get offset by possibly one, both, or neither of Toby Keith “Old School” and/or Caroline Jones “Come In (But Don’t Make Yourself Comfortable)” re-entering Billboard after going recurrent the last couple of weeks. So spoiler not a ton to say. Kelsea Ballerini will score her first #1 since “Legends” this week with “Half Of My Hometown”, I don’t expect it to happen but I kind of hope Black River goes for a second week for #1 since there is such a large gap between Kelsea and the #2 song which should be Parker McCollum’s “To Be Loved By You”. If Kelsea does try to go for another week I do think Parker is gonna be restricted to a MB only #1 but gut is telling me Parker McCollum gets both charts this time next week. Cody Johnson enters the Top 5 this week and should launch up to #3 scoring his first Top 5. The one thing that I am very intrigued by is how long will Warner Bros let “Til You Can’t” stay at the top since this song is by far the biggest song right now in country music and is also testing very well. Rounding out the Top 5 should be Morgan Wallen with his former #1 “Sand In My Boots” which continues its slow but stable descent, and Sam Hunt’s “23” which had a great week of gains. Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter continue to hang in the Top 10 and should fall back to #6 with “Thinking Bout You” which continues to have such longevity on the chart. Elle King & Miranda Lambert continue to get closer to the Top 5 with “Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home)” as callout scores for it look promising for it to have at the very least a MB only #1 but I do think it will get both. Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood should get a couple more weeks in the Top 10 since Eric Church will probably take Kane Brown’s Top 10 spot and there is still a sizable gap between “If I Didn’t Love You” and the next Top 10 contenders in Luke Combs “Doin This”. In the teens literally everyone more than likely will stay in the same position with the only potential shakeups being with Luke Combs maybe passing Russell Dickerson or Carly Pearce/Ashley McBryde as all 3 will be very close in audience. I do get the sense that besides the aforementioned Luke Combs, Carly Pearce/Ashley McBryde, and Cole Swindell/Lainey Wilson, country radio isn’t that excited for any of the songs in the 11 to 20 range. In the 20s, Tim McGraw begins to surge with “7500 OBO” while singles from Jake Owen and Luke Bryan are still underperforming. While Dan + Shay continue to stall out with “Steal My Love” which continues to underperform in every sense. In the 30s, singles from Chris Young, Dustin Lynch, Lee Brice, and Tenille Arts all have really good weeks for this section of the chart and also solid enough weeks from Justin Moore and Kenny Chesney. Same can’t be said for Frank Ray who is still struggling with total non-event “Country Looks Good On You”. Also assuming Toby Keith does not return Ingrid Andress should enter the Top 40 with “Wishful Drinking” which continues to do pretty well. In the 40s, Jon Pardi recovers from his hangover week with “Last Night Lonely”, and Morgan Wallen is having an expected fast start with “Wasted On You” while Old Dominion has a disaster week with “No Hard Feelings” as they should fall back a few spots at least. Finally in the 50s new artist Jakson Dean should debut no matter what as he is off to a great start, also singles from Priscilla Block, Conner Smith, and Lady A have good weeks. Last weeks #59 and #60 song Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” and Chayce Beckham & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me” will also occupy the bottom of the chart assuming neither Toby Keith or Caroline Jones re-enter. However neither of them is looking strong at all. Songs Likely To Leave SoonDustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter “Thinking Bout You” Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood “If I Didn’t Love You” Kane Brown “One Mississippi” Russell Dickerson “Home Sweet” Dan + Shay “Steal My Love” Niko Moon “Paradise To Me” Chase Rice “If I Were Rock & Roll” Songs In TroubleBlake Shelton “Come Back As A Country Boy” Tenille Arts “Back Then, Right Now” Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton “I Bet You Think About Me” Songs To Debut/Return SoonEli Young Band “Love Talking” Michael Ray “Holy Water” Joe Nichols “Good Day For Living” Kip Moore “Crazy One More Time” Kassi Ashton “Dates In Pickup Trucks” Final ThoughtsThis week quite frankly for me was one of the most boring weeks to track, because while Brothers Osborne is going recurrent, having it potentially neutered by Toby Keith or Caroline Jones is annoying since we are trading one zombie of a song for another. Hopefully next week we have a housecleaning as there are just so many songs on the chart that imo need to get out. Here's hoping. I had no clue you were doing this and on a weekly basis!! Honestly I really value your insight and opinions and now I can get em on a weekly basis. Thanks for this as I can tell it takes a good amount of time!
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raylatch98
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Joined: April 2018
Posts: 7,783
Pronouns: He/Him/His
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Post by raylatch98 on Mar 20, 2022 14:32:35 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Cody Johnson “Til You Can’t” 2. Sam Hunt “23” 3. Elle King & Miranda Lambert “Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home)” 4. Dierks Bentley, Breland, Hardy “Beers On Me” 5. Morgan Wallen “Sand In My Boots” 6. Eric Church “Heart On Fire” 7-9. Parker McCollum “To Be Loved By You” (last week?) 7-9. Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson “Never Say Never” 7-9. Carly Pearce & Ashley McBryde “Never Wanted To Be That Girl” 10. Luke Combs “Doin’ This” 11-12. Blake Shelton “Come Back As A Country Boy” 11-12. Keith Urban “Wild Hearts” 13. Thomas Rhett “Slow Down Summer” 14. Hardy “Give Heaven Some Hell” 15. Walker Hayes “”AA” 16-17. Tim McGraw “7500 OBO” 16-17. Miranda Lambert “If I Was A Cowboy” 18. Jake Owen “Best Thing Since Backroads” 19-20. Jason Aldean “Trouble With A Heartbreak” 19-20. Maren Morris “Circles Around This Town” 21. Luke Bryan “Up” 22. Scotty McCreery “Damn Straight” 23. Ernest & Morgan Wallen “Flower Shops” 24. Carrie Underwood “Ghost Story” (New!) 25. Parmalee “Take My Name” 26. Morgan Wallen “Wasted On You” 27. Kenny Chesney “Everyone She Knows” 28-29. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny “At The End Of A Bar” 28-29. Frank Ray “Country Looks Good On You” 30. Dylan Scott “New Truck” 31. Jon Pardi “Last Night Lonely” 32. Justin Moore “With A Woman You Love” 33-34. Dustin Lynch “Party Mode” 33-34. Lee Brice “Soul” 35. Taylor Swift & Chris Stapleton “I Bet You Think About Me” 36. Tenille Arts “Back Then Right Now” 37. Morgan Wade “Wilder Days” 38. Ingrid Andress & Sam Hunt “Wishful Drinking” 39. Mitchell Tenpenny “Truth About You” 40. Gabby Barrett “Pick Me Up” 41-43. Chris Janson “Bye Mom” 41-43. Old Dominion “No Hard Feelings” 41-43. Zac Brown Band “Out In The Middle” 44-45. Midland “Sunrise Tells The Story” 44-45. Caroline Jones “Come In (But Don’t Make Yourself Comfortable)” 46. Jackson Dean “Don’t Come Looking” 47-48. Randy Houser “Note To Self” (New!) 47-48. Brett Young “You Didn’t” 49-50. Jimmie Allen “Down Home” (New!) 49-50. Priscilla Block “My Bar” 51-53. Michael Ray “Holy Water” 51-53. Chase Rice “If I Were Rock & Roll” (last week?) (45% chance of going recurrent) 51-53. Conner Smith “Learn From It” 54-57. Kameron Marlowe “Giving You Up” 54-57. Dillon Carmichael “Son Of A” 54-57. Eli Young Band “Love Talking” 54-57. Lady A “What A Song Can Do” 58. Jelly Roll “Son Of A Sinner” 59-60. Chayce Beckham & Lindsay Ell “Can’t Do Without Me” (Re-Entry!) 59-60. Jameson Rodgers “Missing One” (Re-Entry!)
New & Active Kassi Ashton “Dates In Pickup Trucks” Ryan Hurd “Pass It On” Joe Nichols “Good Day For Living” Elvie Shane “County Roads” Erin Kinsey “Just Drive” Jon Langston “Back Words”
Going Recurrent/Drop Outs Kelsea Ballerini & Kenny Chesney “Half Of My Hometown”, Peak #1 ,Weeks: 47 Dustin Lynch & Mackenzie Porter “Thinking Bout You”, Peak #1 (6 Weeks), Weeks: 45 Kane Brown “One Mississippi”, Peak #1, Weeks: 30 Russell Dickerson “Home Sweet”, Peak #11, Weeks: 60 Dan + Shay “Steal My Love”, Peak #28 Weeks: 31
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.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Mar 20, 2022 15:04:59 GMT -5
raylatch98 you have Morgan Wallen's "Wasted on You" on there as "Sand in My Boots" just fyi
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raylatch98
7x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2018
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Post by raylatch98 on Jun 5, 2022 13:18:52 GMT -5
So these will be much more simple and less frequent as I took a huge hiatus from this unannounced since I really got into a few shows this Spring that took all my attention and I will just go by the name of the artists and it should be pretty easy to figure out what song I am talking about as I am still busy.
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1-2. Jason Aldean 1-2. Parmalee 3. Morgan Wallen 4. Keith Urban 5. Walker Hayes 6-9. Thomas Rhett (last week) 6-9. Cody Johnson (last week) 6-9. Cole Swindell/Lainey Wilson (last week) 6-9. Scotty McCreery 10. Tim McGraw 11. Jake Owen 12-14. Maren Morris 12-14. Miranda Lambert 12-14. Dylan Scott 15. Kane Brown 16. Chris Young/Mitchell Tenpenny 17. Jon Pardi 18-21. Jackson Dean 18-21. Justin Moore 18-21. Kenny Chesney 18-21. Ernest/Morgan Wallen 22. Carrie Underwood 23. Mitchell Tenpenny 24-25. Frank Ray 24-25. Jelly Roll 26. Old Dominion 27-28. Dustin Lynch 27-28. Ingrid Andress/Sam Hunt 29. Gabby Barrett 30. Lee Brice 31. Morgan Wade 32. Tyler Hubbard 33. Russell Dickerson/Jake Scott 34. Zac Brown Band 35. Kelsea Ballerini 36. Brett Young 37-38. Priscilla Block 37-38. Chris Stapleton 39. Jimmie Allen 40. Conner Smith 41. Lady A 42. Restless Road 43. Lainey Wilson 44. Michael Ray 45. Joe Nichols 46-47. Chayce Beckham/Lindsay Ell 46-47. Kameron Marlowe 48-49. Morgan Wallen 48-49. Dillon Carmichael 50. Randy Houser 51-52. Little Big Town 51-52. Eli Young Band 53. Clay Walker 54. Chris Janson (New!) 55. Adam Doleac 56-58. Hailey Whitters 56-58. Jameson Rodgers 56-58. Hailey Whitters 59-60. Brett Eldredge 59-60. Cody Johnson
New & Active Kassi Ashton Elvie Shane Kip Moore Matt Stell Caitlyn Smith Cole Swindell (his new single)
Sorry for how boring this is but I have been watching a lot more shows and I have in general been more busy.
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zdm1998
2x Platinum Member
Sometimes love slips away, and you just can't get it back, lets face it
Joined: August 2020
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Post by zdm1998 on Jun 5, 2022 15:30:24 GMT -5
^ Thanks for doing this. I know I speak more than just for myself by saying we appreciate your hard work with these. It doesn’t go unnoticed; in fact I’ve missed them.
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raylatch98
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Posts: 7,783
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Post by raylatch98 on Jun 26, 2022 13:00:00 GMT -5
1. Morgan Wallen 2. Parmalee 3-4. Jason Aldean 3-4. Scotty McCreery 5. Tim McGraw 6. Dylan Scott 7. Kane Brown 8. Jake Owen 9-10. Maren Morris 9-10. Chris Young & Mitchell Tenpenny 11. Jon Pardi 12-13. Justin Moore 12-13. Jackson Dean 14-16. Mitchell Tenpenny 14-16. Carrie Underwood 14-16. Kenny Chesney 17. Luke Combs 18. Ernest & Morgan Wallen 19-20. Old Dominion 19-20. Ingrid Andress & Sam Hunt 21-22. Jelly Roll 21-22. Dustin Lynch 23-24. Tyler Hubbard 23-24. Frank Ray 25. Sam Hunt (New!) 26. Cole Swindell 27-28. Gabby Barrett 27-28. Russell Dickerson & Jake Scott 29. Zac Brown Band 30. Lee Brice 31. Morgan Wade 32. Thomas Rhett & Riley Green 33. Jimmie Allen 34. Kelsea Ballerini 35-37. Priscilla Block 35-37. Brett Young 35-37. Chris Stapleton 38. Jordan Davis 39. Conner Smith 40-43. Cody Johnson 40-43. Michael Ray 40-43. Lainey Wilson 40-43. Restless Road 44. Joe Nichols 45-47. Morgan Wallen (You Proof) 45-47. Bailey Zimmerman 45-47. Brett Eldredge 48-49. Dillon Carmichael 48-49. Nate Smith 50-51. Randy Houser 50-51. Kameron Marlowe 52-55. Little Big Town 52-55. Chris Janson 52-55. Carly Pearce (New!) 52-55. Eli Young Band (last week?) 56-58. Ryan Griffin 56-58. Clay Walker 56-58. Matt Stell (New!) 59-60. Hailey Whitters 59-60. Eric Church (New!)
New and Active (In no Particular Order) LoCash Kassi Ashton Caitlyn Smith Callista Clark Kip Moore Jessie James Decker
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 26, 2023 17:55:19 GMT -5
Heh long time no see. Haven't done this in a long time, but luckily I should be able to more often now with my job giving me less hours and the charts being published Friday let's today (Thursday) be the perfect time to do this. Cant promise this every week but I do want to bring this back.
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Nate Smith "Whiskey On You" 2-3. Kane Brown & Katelyn Brown "Thank God" 2-3. Jordan Davis "What My World Spins Around" 4. Morgan Wallen "You Proof" 5. Cole Swindell "She Had Me At Heads Carolina" 6. Morgan Wallen "Thought You Should Know" 7. Luke Combs "Going Going Gone" 8. Gabby Barrett "Pick Me Up" (last week) 9. Jason Aldean "That's What Tequila Does" 10. Lainey Wilson "Heart Like A Truck" 11-12. Carly Pearce "What He Didn't Do" 11-12. Hardy & Lainey Wilson "Heart Like A Truck" 13-14. Bailey Zimmerman "Rock And A Hard Place" 13-14. Parker McCollum "Handle On You" 15. Brett Young "You Didn't" 16. Dierks Bentley "Gold" 17. Corey Kent "Wild As Her" 18-19. Blake Shelton "No Body" 18-19. Cody Johnson "Human" 20-21. Sam Hunt "Water Under The Bridge" 20-21. Keith Urban "Brown Eyes Baby" 22. Shane Profitt "How It Oughta Be" 23-24. Joe Nichols "Good Day For Living" 23-24. Dan + Shay "You" 25. Scotty McCreery "It Matters To Her" 26-27. Parmalee "Girl In Mine" 26-27. Carrie Underwood "Hate My Heart" 28. Zach Bryan "Something In The Orange" 29. Walker Hayes "Y'all Life" 30-32. Hailey Whitters "Everything She Ain't" 30-32. Tyler Hubbard "Dancing In The Country" 30-32. Randy Houser "Note To Self" 33-34. Old Dominion "Memory Lane" 33-34. Dillon Carmichael "Son Of A" 35. Eric Church "Doing Life With Me" 36-37. Megan Moroney "Tennessee Orange" 36-37. Jon Pardi "Your Heart Or Mine" 38. Matt Stell "Man Made" 39. Drake Milligan "Sounds Like Something I'd Do" 40. Justin Moore & Priscilla Block "You, Me, & Whiskey" 41. Kolby Cooper "Excuses" 42. Dylan Scott "Can't Have Mine" 43-44. Brantley Gilbert and Blake Shelton featuring Vince Gill "Heaven By Then" 43-44. Mitchell Tenpenny "We Got History" 45-47. Chris Young "Looking For You" 45-47. Elle King featuring Dierks Bentley "Worth A Shot" 45-47. Jelly Roll "Need A Favor" 48. Kelsea Ballerini "If You Go Down (I'm Going Down Too)" 49. Kylie Morgan "If He Wanted To He Would" 50. Jake Owen "Up There Down Here" 51-52. Conner Smith "Take It Slow" 51-52. Morgan Evans "Over For You" 53-54. Toby Keith "Oklahoma Breakdown" 53-54. Russell Dickerson "God Gave Me A Girl" 55-57. Breland "For What It's Worth" 55-57. Morgan Wallen "One Thing At A Time" (Re-Entry!) 55-57. Craig Morgan "How You Make A Man" 58. Dustin Lynch "Stars Like Confetti" (New!) 59-60. Maren Morris "I Can't Love You Anymore" (last week) 59-60. Tyler Braden "Try Losing One" (last week)
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Jan 26, 2023 18:35:06 GMT -5
IM TOTALLY HERE FOR THE REVIVAL OF THIS THREAD!
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 2, 2023 15:29:40 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Nate Smith "Whiskey On You" 2. Kane Brown & Katelyn Brown "Thank God" 3. Morgan Wallen "Thought You Should Know" 4-5. Luke Combs "Going Going Gone" 4-5. Jordan Davis "What My World Spins Around" 6. Cole Swindell "She Had Me At Heads Carolina" (last week) 7. Lainey Wilson "Heart Like A Truck" 8. Jason Aldean "That's What Tequila Does" 9. Hardy & Lainey Wilson "Heart Like A Truck" 10. Carly Pearce "What He Didn't Do" 11. Bailey Zimmerman "Rock And A Hard Place" 12. Parker McCollum "Handle On You" 13. Brett Young "You Didn't" (last week?) 14-15. Dierks Bentley "Gold" 14-15. Corey Kent "Wild As Her" 16. Keith Urban "Brown Eyes Baby" 17. Cody Johnson "Human" 18. Sam Hunt "Water Under The Bridge" 19. Blake Shelton "No Body" (last week?) 20-21. Scotty McCreery "It Matters To Her" 20-21. Joe Nichols "Good Day For Living" 22-23. Shane Profitt "How It Oughta Be" 22-23. Dan + Shay "You" 24. Carrie Underwood "Hate My Heart" 25. Tyler Hubbard "Dancing In The Country" 26. Zach Bryan "Something In The Orange" 27-29. Parmalee "Girl In Mine" 27-29. Walker Hayes "Y'all Life" 27-29. Cole Swindell "Drinkabye" (New!) 30. Old Dominion "Memory Lane" 31. Randy Houser "Note To Self" 32. Megan Moroney "Tennessee Orange" 33. Hailey Whitters "Everything She Ain't" 34-35. Dillon Carmichael "Son Of A" 34-35. Eric Church "Doing Life With Me" 36. Jon Pardi "Your Heart Or Mine" 37. Matt Stell "Man Made" 38-39. Drake Milligan "Sounds Like Something I'd Do" 38-39. Justin Moore & Priscilla Block "You, Me, & Whiskey" 40. Kolby Cooper "Excuses" 41-42. Dylan Scott "Can't Have Mine" 41-42. Mitchell Tenpenny "We Got History" 43-44. Chris Young "Looking For You" 43-44. Elle King featuring Dierks Bentley "Worth A Shot" 45. Jelly Roll "Need A Favor" 46. Brantley Gilbert and Blake Shelton featuring Vince Gill "Heaven By Then" 47-49. Kelsea Ballerini "If You Go Down (I'm Going Down Too)" 47-49. Kylie Morgan "If He Wanted To He Would" 47-49. Morgan Wallen "One Thing At A Time" 50-51. Dustin Lynch "Stars Like Confetti" 50-51. Jake Owen "Up There Down Here" 52. Morgan Evans "Over For You" 53-54. Conner Smith "Take It Slow" 53-54. Russell Dickerson "God Gave Me A Girl" 55-56. Toby Keith "Oklahoma Breakdown" 55-56. Breland "For What It's Worth" 57. Thomas Rhett "Angels (Don't Always Have Wings)" (New!) 58. George Birge "Mind On You" 59. Hannah Ellis "Country Can" 60. Jackson Dean "Fearless" (New!)
Dropouts Morgan Wallen "You Proof", Peak: 1 (10 Weeks), Weeks: 33 Gabby Barrett "Pick Me Up", "Peak: #6, Weeks: 51 Craig Morgan "How You Make A Man", Peak #53, Weeks: 7
Commentary/Highlights Nate Smith scores a second week at #1 becoming the first singer to have their debut single spend multiple weeks at #1 since Matt Stell did in 2019 with "Prayed For You". Unlike Matt Stell I do see more longevity with Nate Smith. Elsewhere in the Top 10 Kane and Katelyn Brown prep for #1 soon as they should get it next week. "You Proof" should go recurrent as it ranks #11 in spins ("She Had Me At Heads Carolina" ranks at #10) but that is no problem for Morgan Wallen as "Thought You Should Know" gets into the Top 3 this week and is gonna probably hold on to #1 for quite a while once Kane/Katelyn are done. Jordan Davis while not having as slow of a fall as "You Proof" or "She Had Me At Heads Carolina" is still falling pretty slowly. Luke Combs round out the Top 5 with "Going Going Gone".
In the 6-10 range "She Had Me At Heads Carolina" should spend it's final week on the chart as it ranks at #10 in spins and next week Bailey Zimmerman should easily pass it. But still an absolute killer chart run for Cole Swindell. Lainey Wilson is the it girl at country radio right now with both "Wait In The Truck" and "Heart Like A Truck" having absolute stellar weeks of gains as the former looks very likely to be the first pure solo number #1 since Lainey herself with her single "Things A Man Oughta Know" while her other song "Wait In The Truck" enters the Top 10 in its 24th week. Jason Aldean continues to stand out as the clear weak link in the Top 10 with absolute nothing burger of a hit in "What Tequila Does" as it has clearly hit a wall with country radio for a while now. Scoring her fourth Top 10 single is Carly Pearce "What He Didn't Do". I do think this will for sure get the Mediabase #1 but that Billboard #1 is still looking shaky imo as out of all the songs peaking after "Thank God" is done (Carly Pearce, Morgan Wallen, Bailey Zimmerman, HARDY/Lainey Wilson, Luke Combs, and Lainey Wilson by herself) Carly Pearce is unfortunately the weakest link. It's still a really strong hit, but I do still maintain it is probably gonna have to wait most of these songs out if it wants the Billboard #1.
Speaking of him, Bailey Zimmerman continues to sky rocket up the chart with "Rock and A Hard Place". Also doing well is Parker McCollum "Handle On You" which I do think is looking poised to wait out all these bigger hits. At #13 should be Brett Young "You Didn't" in its 63rd week as it struggled this week to stay afloat as it is blatantly clear this songs age is starting to finally make it succumb sooner than later. I do think it can hang on for maybe a couple more weeks but that's it. Newcomer Corey Kent continues to pick up steam with "Wild As Her" which should soon pass slower moving Dierks Bentley. Solid enough weeks for Keith Urban "Brown Eyes Baby", Sam Hunt "Water Under The Bridge", and Cody Johnson "Human" as each do pretty well while Blake Shelton "No Body" also hit an absolute wall this week. Rounding out the Top 20 should be either Joe Nichols "Good Day For Living" (it would be his first since 2014 with "Yeah) or Scotty McCreery "It Matters To Her" both of which had great weeks with radio.
Shane Profitt struggled this week with non event "How It Oughta Be" while Dan + Shay did pretty well. Now from there, their is a pretty sizable gap between Dan + Shay and the next batch of songs. Starting off with two songs that I think are safe locks for Top 10 at least and those 2 being Carrie Underwood "Hate My Heart" which despite not a ton of consumer interest is still finding it's stride more and more on radio, along with Tyler Hubbard "Dancing In The Country" which in part due to the album had a fantastic week of gains and is emerging as a pretty big hit for him. Solid yet unspectacular weeks for Zach Bryan "Something In The Orange", Parmalee "Girl In Mine" while Walker Hayes "Y'all Life" struggles. Cole Swindell's new single "Drinkabye" should sneak into the Top 30 with it's debut while Old Dominion hits the Top 30 with their new single "Memory Lane" in the songs 5th week.
In the 30s it is more of the same of Randy Houser, Dillon Carmichael, Hailey Whitters, Eric Church, and Matt Stell all trying to gain enough ground to make the Top 30 and all of them continuing to spin their wheels with maybe Hailey Whitters standing the best shot at longevity (she is the only one with buzz and has gotten a steady stream of adds in the new year). Speakingof new wome in country Megan Moroney had a great week with "Tennessee Orange" which continues to do amazing both for a debut song and a female artist. Nothing too noteworthy for Jon Pardi, Justin Moore/Priscilla Block, or debut singles from Drake Milligan and Kolby Cooper. The former two look to be potential sleeper hits while "Sounds Like Something I'd Do" continues to look stronger than "Excuses" if either new male artist is to emerge this year.
In the 40s and 50s, Mitchell Tenpenny "We Got History", Chris Young "Looking For You", Elle King/Dierks Bentley "Worth A Shot" (thanks a bit to the album and a solid amount of adds), Jelly Roll "Need A Favor" (especially once he goes for full adds in a couple of weeks), Dustin Lynch "Stars Like Confetti, shockingly Morgan Evans "Over For You, Thomas Rhett "Angels", and Jackson Dean "Fearless" all had solid weeks and radio seems very interested in all of these songs with maybe the exception of "Worth A Shot" and "Over For You" but even they are looking good. Mediocre weeks for Russell Dickerson, Kelsea Ballerini, Kylie Morgan, Breland, Hannah Ellis, and Conner Smith but none of them look to be in danger anytime soon. Unfortunately this week was kind of disastrous for those not mentioned i.e Dylan Scott, Brantley Gilbert & Co, Jake Owen, Toby Keith, and George Birge. I don't think any of them are getting dropped very soon sans maybe Toby Keith and "Oklahoma Breakdown" but I don't feel very confident right now in any of them.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Feb 2, 2023 15:57:02 GMT -5
How much longer can Dillon Carmichael stay on this chart? The rate he’s going he could break the weeks on the chart record and not even hit #1.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 2, 2023 16:15:32 GMT -5
How much longer can Dillon Carmichael stay on this chart? The rate he’s going he could break the weeks on the chart record and not even hit #1. I don't think he breaks the record. He is gonna be at 53 weeks and I think the record is 65 (someone please check to make sure that's true) and I can't see him lasting another 12 weeks since even after hitting the Top 30 on Mediabase he is still not doing much. I still think the bottom will cave in for this song pretty soon.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Feb 2, 2023 16:30:17 GMT -5
How much longer can Dillon Carmichael stay on this chart? The rate he’s going he could break the weeks on the chart record and not even hit #1. I don't think he breaks the record. He is gonna be at 53 weeks and I think the record is 65 (someone please check to make sure that's true) and I can't see him lasting another 12 weeks since even after hitting the Top 30 on Mediabase he is still not doing much. I still think the bottom will cave in for this song pretty soon. The record is 65 weeks. A tie between Travis Denning’s “After A Few” and Michael Ray’s “Whiskey And Rain”. Brett Young needs only 2 more charting weeks after tomorrow to tie the record. He’s currently at 62 weeks. I was just saying it seems like country has been holding onto Dillon’s song forever that if they keep it up it will break the record.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 9, 2023 19:43:53 GMT -5
No predictions this week, but some quick thoughts.
Honestly once the Top 11 or so clear out on Billboard, it is so hard to find big hits coming after all of them are done. Because we still have a solid chunk of songs that still can't sneak into the Hot Country Songs chart despite at or above Top 30 radio play (Shane Profitt, Joe Nichols, Carrie Underwood, Parmalee, Randy Houser, Dillon Carmichael) and radio testing/age killing other songs completely (Zach Bryan, Brett Young, Dillon Carmichael again) and all of those songs need to start picking the momentum back up on either radio/consumer interest or get out.
I am excited to see songs from Old Dominion, Cole Swindell, Justin Moore/Priscilla Block, Megan Moroney, Tyler Hubbard, Jelly Roll, and hopefully Kelsea Ballerini, Kylie Morgan, and Hailey Whitters continue to climb and bring some excitement and enter the Top 30 (sans Tyler Hubbard) as all of them could shape up to be very solid hits all things considered. Unfortunately, 12 to 30 section on Mediabase/Billboard right now is pretty dull sans a few songs (Corey Kent, Scotty McCreery, Tyler Hubbard).
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Mar 31, 2023 8:21:27 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Bailey Zimmerman "Rock And A Hard Place" 2. Lainey Wilson "Heart Like A Truck" 3. Morgan Wallen "Thought You Should Know" 4. Luke Combs "Going Going Gone" 5-7. Dierks Bentley "Gold" 5-7. Parker McCollum "Handle On You" 5-7. Hardy & Lainey Wilson "Wait In The Truck" 8-9. Carly Pearce "What He Didn't Do" (last week) 8-9. Corey Kent "Wild As Her" 10-11. Tyler Hubbard "Dancing In The Country" 10-11. Brett Young "You Didn't" (last week?) 12. Dan + Shay "You" 13. Cody Johnson "Human" 14. Morgan Wallen "One Thing At A Time" 15-16. Keith Urban "Brown Eyes Baby" 15-16. Scotty McCreery "It Matters To Her" 17. Megan Moroney "Tennessee Orange" 18. Sam Hunt "Water Under The Bridge" 19. Morgan Wallen "Last Night" 20. Old Dominion "Memory Lane" 21-22. Shane Profitt "How It Oughta Be" 21-22. Joe Nichols "Good Day For Living" 23. Parmalee "Girl In Mine" 24. Carrie Underwood "Hate My Heart" 25. Zach Bryan "Something In The Orange" 26. Hailey Whitters "Everything She Ain't" 27. Jon Pardi "Your Heart Or Mine" 28. Thomas Rhett "Angels (Don't Always Have Wings)" 29. Jordan Davis "Next Thing You Know" 30-31. Jelly Roll "Need A Favor" 30-31. Justin Moore & Priscilla Block "You, Me And Whiskey" 32. Tim McGraw "Standing Room Only" 33. Cole Swindell "Drinkaby" Dillon Carmichael "Son Of A" (if it re-enters this is about where it should be) 34. Chris Young "Looking For You" 35. Dylan Scott "Can't Have Mine (Find You A Girl)" 36. Kolby Cooper "Excuses" 37. Ashley McBryde" Light On In The Kitchen" 38-39. Russell Dickerson "God Gave Me A Girl" 38-39. Elle King & Dierks Bentley "Worth A Shot" 40. Chris Janson "All I Need Is You" 41-42. Dustin Lynch "Stars Like Confetti" 41-42. Mitchell Tenpenny "We Got History" 43-45. Kelsea Ballerini "If You Go Down (I'm Going Down Too)" 43-45. Jackson Dean "Fearless (The Echo Edition)" 43-45. Kylie Morgan "If He Wanted To He Would" 46. Brantley Gilbert & Blake Shelton featuring Vince Gill "Heaven By Then" 47-49. Morgan Evans "Over For You" 47-49. Drake Milligan "Sounds Like Something I'd Do" 47-49. George Birge "Mind On You" 50-52. Luke Combs "5 Leaf Clover" (New!) 50-52. Luke Combs "Love You Anyway" (New!) 50-52. Chayce Beckham "23" 53. Jake Owen "Up There Down Here" 54. Kane Brown "Bury Me In Georgia" 55-56. Dalton Dover "Giving Up On That" 55-56. Bailey Zimmerman "Religously" 57. Breland "For What It's Worth" 58. Hannah Ellis "Country Can" 59. Toby Keith "Oklahoma Breakdown" (last week?) 60. Tigirlily Gold "Shoot Tequila"
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Post by countryman87 on Apr 20, 2023 13:25:29 GMT -5
I'm going to try my hand at this. I'm just going to do top 40.
1. Bailey Zimmerman "Rock And A Hard Place" 2. Hardy & Lainey Wilson "Wait In The Truck" 3-4. Dierks Bentley "Gold" 3-4. Parker McCollum "Handle On You" 5. Corey Kent "Wild As Her" 6. Morgan Wallen "Thought You Should Know" 7. Tyler Hubbard "Dancing In The Country" 8. Dan + Shay "You" 9-10. Morgan Wallen "Last Night" 9-10. Morgan Wallen "One Thing At A Time" 11. Cody Johnson "Human" 12. Scotty McCreery "It Matters To Her" 13. Megan Moroney "Tennessee Orange" 14. Old Dominion "Memory Lane" 15. Shane Profitt "How It Oughta Be" 16. Jordan Davis "Next Thing You Know" 17. Joe Nichols "Good Day For Living" 18. Jon Pardi "Your Heart Or Mine" 19. Carrie Underwood "Hate My Heart" (last week?) 20. Parmalee "Girl In Mine" 21-22. Thomas Rhett "Angels (Don't Always Have Wings)" 21-22. Hailey Whitters "Everything She Ain't" 23. Justin Moore & Priscilla Block "You, Me And Whiskey" 24. Cole Swindell "Drinkaby" 25. Jelly Roll "Need A Favor" 26-27. Zach Bryan "Something In The Orange" (last week?) 26-27. Chris Young "Looking For You" 28. Tim McGraw "Standing Room Only" 29. Dylan Scott "Can't Have Mine (Find You A Girl)" 30-31. Mitchell Tenpenny "We Got History" 30-31. Ashley McBryde" Light On In The Kitchen" 32. Russell Dickerson "God Gave Me A Girl" 33-34. Chris Janson "All I Need Is You" 33-34. Kane Brown "Bury Me In Georgia" 35. Darius Rucker "Fires Don't Start Themselves" 36. Elle King & Dierks Bentley "Worth A Shot" 37-38. Drake Milligan "Sounds Like Something I'd Do" 37-38. Dustin Lynch "Stars Like Confetti" 39. Luke Combs "5 Leaf Clover" 40. Kelsea Ballerini "If You Go Down (I'm Going Down Too)"
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on May 25, 2023 12:52:31 GMT -5
Billboard Country Airplay Top 60 1. Morgan Wallen "Last Night" 2. Tyler Hubbard "Dancing In The Country" 3. Dan + Shay "You" 4. Bailey Zimmerman "Rock And A Hard Place" 5. Scotty McCreery "It Matters To Her" 6. Megan Moroney "Tennessee Orange" 7. Jordan "Next Thing You Know" 8. Cody Johnson "Human" 9. Morgan Wallen "One Thing At A Time" 10. Old Dominion "Memory Lane" 11-12. Keith Urban "Brown Eyes Baby" 11-12. Jon Pardi "Your Heart Or Mine" 13. Justin Moore & Priscilla Block "You, Me, & Whiskey" 14. Luke Combs "Love You Anyway" 15. Luke Combs "Fast Car" 16. Jelly Roll "Need A Favor" 17. Thomas Rhett "Angels (Don't Always Have Wings)" 18. Parmalee "Girl In Mine" 19-20. Shane Profitt "How It Oughta Be" 19-20. Hailey Whitters "Everything She Ain't" 21. Cole Swindell "Drinkaby" 22. Kane Brown "Bury Me In Georgia" 23-25. Zach Bryan "Something In The Orange" 23-25. Tim McGraw "Standing Room Only" 23-25. Jason Aldean "Try That In A Small Town" (New!) 26. Chris Young "Looking For You" 27. Bailey Zimmerman "Religously" 28-29. Dylan Scott "Can't Have Mine" 28-29. Luke Bryan "But I Got A Beer In My Hand" 30-31. Mitchell Tenpenny "We Got History" 30-31. Russell Dickerson "God Gave Me A Girl" 32. Kelsea Ballerini "If You Go Down (I'm Going Down Too)" 33. Dustin Lynch "Stars Like Confetti" 34. Chris Janson "All I Need Is You" 35. Ashley McBryde "Light On In The Kitchen" 36-39. Jackson Dean "Fearless (The Echo)" 36-39. Brantley Gilbert & Blake Shelton featuring Vince Gill "Heaven By Then" 36-39. Kylie Morgan "If He Wanted To He Would" 36-39. George Birge "Mind On You" 40-41. Darius Rucker "Fires Don't Start Themselves" 40-41. Conner Smith "Creek Will Rise" 42-43. Brothers Osborne "Nobody's Nobody" 42-43. Chayce Beckham "23" 44-45. Morgan Evans "Over For You" 44-45. Riley Green featuring Luke Combs "Different 'Round Here" 46-47. Dalton Dover "Giving Up On That" 46-47. Kassi Ashton "Drive You Out Of My Mind" 48-49. HARDY "Truck Bed" 48-49. Morgan Wallen "Thinkin' Bout Me" 50. Kimberly Perry "If I Die Young Pt 2." 51. Easton Corbin "Marry That Girl" 52-54. Neon Union "Bout Damn Time" 52-54. Tigirlily Gold "Shoot Tequila" 52-54. Chase Rice "Bad Day To Be A Cold Beer" 55. Jelly Roll featuring Lainey Wilson "Save Me" (New!) 56. Frank Ray "Somebody Else's Whiskey" 57-58. Tenille Arts & Leeann Rimes "Jealous Of Myself" 57-58. Morgan Wallen "98 Braves" 59-60. Lainey Wilson "Watermelon Moonshine" (New!) 59-60. Chase Matthew "Love You Again" (New!)
Going Recurrent or Drop Outs Corey Kent "Wild As Her", Peak: #3, Weeks: 42 Joe Nichols "Good Day For Living", Peak: #18, Weeks: 60 Daves Highway "First Rodeo", Peak: #59, Weeks: 1 Parker McCollum "Burn It Down", Peak: 60, Weeks: 1
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