Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2012 14:06:22 GMT -5
Maybe, just maybe, this will restore some people's confidence in Carrie's ability to reach #1 on the Hot Country songs chart. Nobody ( nobody) thought Carrie would never reach the top again. Many "stans" here simply, and blindly, assumed that this would reach the top. Others, who analyze charts with more knowledge, however, spotted the slowdown that isn't typical for someone of Carrie's stature. The fact that they were worried and expressed some concern shouldn't be mocked simply because this ultimately reached the top. For awhile there, these concerns were extremely legitimate and understandable. So, move on. Please.
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carriekins
5x Platinum Member
With my mouth wide open in a whiskey rain, I could stand here 24 hours a day...
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Post by carriekins on Jun 3, 2012 18:17:27 GMT -5
Ok, I was basically trying to point out Zazie's negativity. It was a complete joke, no need to take offense. People take things a little too seriously sometimes. There was so much doubt throughout this chart run, and I was merely poking fun at it. I should have known it wouldn't have gone over well. Oh well, what's done is done, "Good Girl" is number one, and we can now move on to "Blown Away". Bless your heart.
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Post by countrybamafan on Jun 3, 2012 21:25:11 GMT -5
I agree with Censor. This chart run was extremely peculiar. Good Girl didn't just slow down for a week or two. It came to a screeching halt for a month. That kind of chart run was not normal, even for a Carrie song. Those who analyze the charts really closely would naturally think this song would probably fall short, not just because they hate Carrie. I swear some Carrie fans need to grow up. If I didn't love Carrie and her music, I would probably be pulling for her to have underperforming singles just for spite. Some of Carrie's fans acting like 13-year old children is one reason I think some don't like her.
I was afraid this song might be done right outside the Top 5. At the time, I would have been happy for a Top 5. I am ecstatic this hit #1 and added to Carrie's #1 singles. I'm very anxious now for Blown Away to be released. I could see it being a huge #1 or underperforming according to Carrie's singles, but it's a chance worth taking.
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carrieidol1
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Posts: 12,588
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Post by carrieidol1 on Jun 3, 2012 21:35:37 GMT -5
Maybe, just maybe, this will restore some people's confidence in Carrie's ability to reach #1 on the Hot Country songs chart. Nobody ( nobody) thought Carrie would never reach the top again. Many "stans" here simply, and blindly, assumed that this would reach the top. Others, who analyze charts with more knowledge, however, spotted the slowdown that isn't typical for someone of Carrie's stature. The fact that they were worried and expressed some concern shouldn't be mocked simply because this ultimately reached the top. For awhile there, these concerns were extremely legitimate and understandable. So, move on. Please. I realize now that I've misstepped in my post, I'm sorry, and appreciate Censor's explanation of why it was wrong. It was direct and well-intended, I appreciate that. Sorry again, guys.
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Post by castleoblivion26 on Jun 3, 2012 21:39:41 GMT -5
I'm personally surprised this made it to #1 and definitely surprised it made it over Zac Brown Band's No Hurry. This is easily my 2nd least favorite single of Carrie's ever, with Mama's Song being my least favorite. I haven't listened to her new album yet and plan on listening to it this week, hope I like it like I usually like her stuff.
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Post by singingsparrow on Jun 4, 2012 17:17:32 GMT -5
I'm personally surprised this made it to #1 and definitely surprised it made it over Zac Brown Band's No Hurry. This is easily my 2nd least favorite single of Carrie's ever, with Mama's Song being my least favorite. I haven't listened to her new album yet and plan on listening to it this week, hope I like it like I usually like her stuff. I'm surprised anyone was surprised this would go #1. Lyrically, this is a retread of "Cowboy Casanova" with the "Watch out, girl, he's no good!" mantra. It hits all the familiar buttons. And musically, Underwood has always flexed her rock-leaning edge, most notably on the aforementioned "Cowboy Casanova", "Last Name" and "Before He Cheats." On top of that, this is one of her tightest, most concise releases to date. So why should I have ANY reason to be surprised about this hitting #1? Give me one good reason! ;) Namaste, lisping HIBISCUS
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2012 17:26:34 GMT -5
Let's look back at this retrospectively, shall we? Apparently some people can see the future and knew that Arista knew they could debut strongly on the 3/10 chart, then have a huge 2nd week, then barely gain anything at all until Memorial Day, when the #1 spot would be ripe for the taking. Yes, I'm sure they knew all that ahead of time and were more than happy to gain less than 1 million weekly for several weeks, rather than the typical 2-3 million or more that big singles usually gain per week.
Here's GG's Billboard chart run, including her position and weekly audience gain.
01. 3/10 chart - #30 (debut after 3 days of airplay), gains 5.310 million 02. 3/17 chart - #19, gain of 9.787 million 03. 3/24 chart - #15, gain of 3.166 million 04. 3/31 chart - #11, gain of 2.350 million 05. 4/07 chart - #11, gain of 1.212 million 06. 4/14 chart - #10, gain of 1.096 million 07. 4/21 chart - #08, gain of 0.854 million 08. 4/28 chart - #08, gain of 1.580 million 09. 5/05 chart - #08, gain of 0.335 million 10. 5/12 chart - #08, gain of 0.902 million 11. 5/19 chart - #07, gain of 0.879 million 12. 5/26 chart - #05, gain of 1.315 million 13. 6/02 chart - #05, gain of 3.147 million 14. 6/09 chart - #04, gain of 1.647 million 15. 6/16 chart - #01, her gain should be in the 3.5-4.0 million range.
If that isn't the most bizarre climb to #1 I've seen, then I don't know what is. Most songs en route to #1 either start off really slow and are growers, peaking after 25-35 weeks (or sometimes even more), or you have the typical superstar run up the chart, which involves a splashly big debut (like GG had), followed by a steady diet of 2-3 million gains per week and a nice little stay at the top. Lead singles for the big stars can hit #1 in as little as 10-13 weeks or so, and the 2nd, 3rd, 4th singles from 'big name' albums usually take ~15-20 weeks.
This is the point I was trying to make all along, that Zazie and Jonsolo and Joey and carriekins and Dudley and many other respected long-time members of this forum either agreed with or said very similar things--for most of the chart run, GG did NOT act like a future #1, but rather like a song that wasn't quite connecting right and would fizzle out before it could have a shot at the top (that leads to the phrases like "her #1 chances are less"). The data above supports that--and you can compare it to other Carrie singles or singles from other superstars. For 9-10 of its 15 climbing weeks, GG didn't exhibit any signs of a future #1. It still had a chance to get there, simply because we're dealing with Carrie Underwood and a lead single after a bit of an absence. For 4 weeks, GG didn't even gain 1 million, and her weekly gains were what some songs gained in a day. For another 5 weeks, GG gained less than 1.65 million.
Some of us have followed the charts for years, and follow chart runs in great detail. We follow Carrie's songs, but we also follow George Strait, Keith Urban, Kenny Chesney, Brad Paisley, Lady Antebellum, the Zac Brown Band, Jason Aldean, Miranda Lambert, Eric Church, Blake Shelton, Dierks Bentley, Alan Jackson, Taylor Swift, and many more. Some of us like Carrie, some of us don't, but we all like country music and discussing charts and some of us are dang good at it. Bottom line is, our feelings for Carrie aside, we're not completely oblivious to everything else on the chart that's not Carrie-related.
I don't 'stan' exclusively for Carrie, but I am a fan and have loved "Good Girl" from the start. None of us 'naysayers' have anything against Carrie, nor did we ever say GG wouldn't hit #1. As the data above supports, we simply analyzed her chart run and for many, many weeks there, GG did not act like a #1, and thus, you get statements like "her #1 chances are less, or...if so-and-so goes by, it'll be tough for GG to hit #1". I always thought she could do it, but the data didn't always justify predicting a #1. She and the label stuck with it, though, and GG found its way to #1.
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.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 4, 2012 17:44:06 GMT -5
So why should I have ANY reason to be surprised about this hitting #1? Give me one good reason! ;) When this was first released, most of us thought it would easily cruise to #1... but then it came to a screeching halt in the upper half of the top 10 for a few months, and things didn't look very good for a while. When it was passed on Billboard by "Springsteen", I really didn't think it would make it to #1. (I thought it would hit #1 on mediabase though) It wasn't until a week or two ago that this started moving quickly, and actually gaining consistently each day. Prior to that point, it seemed like "Springsteen" was going to block it from the top spot – at least on Billboard. I think he was being sarcastic in saying that. I could be wrong though.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2012 17:44:34 GMT -5
Prior to that point, it seemed like "Springsteen" was going to block it from the top spot – at least on Billboard. And "Springsteen" probably could have blocked "Good Girl", if the charts behaved like they did a few years ago. But nowadays, radio is happy to go along with the little schedules the labels have been setting up. Eric obviously took his foot off the accelerator this week, because EMI knew Arista was going for max spins for Carrie this week. Just like Carrie had a big 3 million gain on the 6/2 chart, to get closer to #1, then eased off last week to let Kip and the ZBB run through the last fumes in their gas tanks, before going pedal-to-the-medal this week, saving up the last resources in a final surge to the top. Almost everyone that goes over 30 million is able to find a week at #1, it seems. The turnover at the top continues to go up, with only a few 2-week #1 hits now. It's very political, and label promotion people are able to get enough stations to play song A at time X, so you wind up with a lot of starting and stopping on the chart.
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Jun 4, 2012 20:28:25 GMT -5
Here's GG's Billboard chart run, including her position and weekly audience gain. 01. 3/10 chart - #30 (debut after 3 days of airplay), gains 5.310 million 02. 3/17 chart - #19, gain of 9.787 million 03. 3/24 chart - #15, gain of 3.166 million 04. 3/31 chart - #11, gain of 2.350 million 05. 4/07 chart - #11, gain of 1.212 million 06. 4/14 chart - #10, gain of 1.096 million 07. 4/21 chart - #08, gain of 0.854 million 08. 4/28 chart - #08, gain of 1.580 million 09. 5/05 chart - #08, gain of 0.335 million 10. 5/12 chart - #08, gain of 0.902 million 11. 5/19 chart - #07, gain of 0.879 million 12. 5/26 chart - #05, gain of 1.315 million 13. 6/02 chart - #05, gain of 3.147 million 14. 6/09 chart - #04, gain of 1.647 million 15. 6/16 chart - #01, her gain should be in the 3.5-4.0 million range. If that isn't the most bizarre climb to #1 I've seen, then I don't know what is. Most songs en route to #1 either start off really slow and are growers, peaking after 25-35 weeks (or sometimes even more), or you have the typical superstar run up the chart, which involves a splashly big debut (like GG had), followed by a steady diet of 2-3 million gains per week and a nice little stay at the top. Lead singles for the big stars can hit #1 in as little as 10-13 weeks or so, and the 2nd, 3rd, 4th singles from 'big name' albums usually take ~15-20 weeks. This is the point I was trying to make all along, that Zazie and Jonsolo and Joey and carriekins and Dudley and many other respected long-time members of this forum either agreed with or said very similar things--for most of the chart run, GG did NOT act like a future #1, but rather like a song that wasn't quite connecting right and would fizzle out before it could have a shot at the top (that leads to the phrases like "her #1 chances are less"). The data above supports that--and you can compare it to other Carrie singles or singles from other superstars. For 9-10 of its 15 climbing weeks, GG didn't exhibit any signs of a future #1. It still had a chance to get there, simply because we're dealing with Carrie Underwood and a lead single after a bit of an absence. For 4 weeks, GG didn't even gain 1 million, and her weekly gains were what some songs gained in a day. For another 5 weeks, GG gained less than 1.65 million. Some of us have followed the charts for years, and follow chart runs in great detail. We follow Carrie's songs, but we also follow George Strait, Keith Urban, Kenny Chesney, Brad Paisley, Lady Antebellum, the Zac Brown Band, Jason Aldean, Miranda Lambert, Eric Church, Blake Shelton, Dierks Bentley, Alan Jackson, Taylor Swift, and many more. Some of us like Carrie, some of us don't, but we all like country music and discussing charts and some of us are dang good at it. Bottom line is, our feelings for Carrie aside, we're not completely oblivious to everything else on the chart that's not Carrie-related. I don't 'stan' exclusively for Carrie, but I am a fan and have loved "Good Girl" from the start. None of us 'naysayers' have anything against Carrie, nor did we ever say GG wouldn't hit #1. As the data above supports, we simply analyzed her chart run and for many, many weeks there, GG did not act like a #1, and thus, you get statements like "her #1 chances are less, or...if so-and-so goes by, it'll be tough for GG to hit #1". I always thought she could do it, but the data didn't always justify predicting a #1. She and the label stuck with it, though, and GG found its way to #1. Great post Jamie. During the slowdown in weekly gains, she was also having very erratic daily gains, which continued for over a month – gaining 250K one day, and 25K the next. She spent two months to climb from 11 to 7 (11, 11, 10, 8, 8, 8, 8, 7). It's just not typical of a Carrie lead single (to say the least) and that's why we were concerned.
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bornfearless2000
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SOMETHING IN THE WATER
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Post by bornfearless2000 on Jun 4, 2012 21:07:01 GMT -5
OMG!
It's officially number one!!!!!!!!!!!
CC needed 10 weeks to reach #1 and 15 weeks for GG. Not bad.
Now, let's move on and release THE BIG GUN (Blown Away).
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.indulgecountry
Diamond Member
Best Country Poster 2011, 2017, & 2018
"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 4, 2012 21:15:40 GMT -5
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Jun 4, 2012 23:29:48 GMT -5
It's definitely among the wackiest chart runs I've ever seen at either Mediabase or Billboard; after it was leaked to a handful of format powerhouses such as KEEY, it proceeded to gain almost 1,900 spins in seven full days of airplay.
Her label has to be delirious that it's reached #1, and that once again she'll wind up with the year's biggest single by a female vocalist.
Great treasure trove of research, Ms. Homes!
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sbp17
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Post by sbp17 on Jun 5, 2012 5:06:54 GMT -5
I realize now that I've misstepped in my post, I'm sorry, and appreciate Censor's explanation of why it was wrong. It was direct and well-intended, I appreciate that. Sorry again, guys. Kudos for this post.
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jaseboyhyde
New Member
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Posts: 362
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Post by jaseboyhyde on Jun 5, 2012 14:23:58 GMT -5
Congratulations to Carrie and her fans on the #1!
I've always been a fan of Carrie. I think she is the best female vocalist Country music has seen in years...maybe the best of all time. Her range and versatility are incredible and, in my opinion, unmatched.
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