Carrie Underwood - "Blown Away"

[layne]

Sept 18, 2012 1:08:03 GMT -5 jhomes87 said:

Sept 18, 2012 0:57:17 GMT -5 layne said:

^Interesting. Isn't KEEY a station that is on a panel that determines National Charts?

Yes...? I don't get where you are going with this.

I am just curious. I didn't understand your comment about not wanting the stations to play songs based on National Charts.

[Deleted]

^I added more to my last post. I hope that clarifies it somewhat because I don't know what else to say. You've got to understand that, if every single station played the #1 song on the airplay chart as it's #1 song, that it would likely have between 7,000 and 8,000 spins for the week on Billboard, and maybe 50 million AI's.

Where would all those spins and AI's come from? They'd be taken away from songs lower down. We're already seeing a general trend, where the top songs are getting played too much and it hurts songs lower down. And one of the reasons we are seeing that is because stations are programming their playlists based off of what they see on the national charts. Those charts are compiled by airplay, and it all averages out...one station might play a song 70 times a week, another station might only go with 10 spins for the same song, and then you get an average of 40 SPSPW (spins per station per week) for that 1 song at those 2 stations.

If too many PD's start looking at the chart and saying "hey, that song is top 10 on Billboard, but not top 10 here! Better move it up!!"...can you see how that would be very bad? It would bring the chart to a standstill. My point is, we need variety, and the national chart rankings should not determine what playlists look like. They should be based off local research...then you add all that up and get a national chart. Does that make sense?

[layne]

It makes sense. I am trying to learn how it all works.

That leads me to a question about this song. It was #2 on the BB indicator chart. It looks to be getting almost maximum spins. Since it looks to be 6-7 weeks out from possibly getting to #1 on the regular chart, will a loss in spins on that indicator chart start hurting it on the regular chart if it's not able to hold on to maximum spins for that long?

[Deleted]

Glad I was making sense. I guess the last thought I have to add about the national charts and station playlists is that, if you stop and think about it, if every station's top 10 on their playlist was the current top 10 songs in the country, then every station in the entire country would have the same playlists, basically, and there would be virtually no movement at all on the chart. It would be a complete standstill, pretty much. What causes chart movement is the fluctuations in spin increases or decreases (rotation changes) at radio stations, especially the bigger market ones.

As far as BA goes on the Indicator chart, I could see it dropping there a couple weeks before it peaks on the main chart. But I think it has a better chance at seeing several weeks at #1 on the secondary chart. Most of the time, I actually like that chart better, because the playlists on smaller stations are much more varied and not nearly under as much corporate control, so songs move around a lot better. There's more variety. The problem, though, is that those charts don't measure much...if you look at tonight's BB Indicator chart, for example, the top several songs only have about 800k to 1 million AI's.

Summing it up...yeah, maybe BA does fall a little earlier on the secondary chart than it will on the main chart, but that's rather normal and if it does happen a little earlier than average, I don't think it will hurt the song at all. The label isn't really focused on how well the song does at the tiny markets, so they'll keep promoting it. But at this point, I don't think BA really needs much promotion...it's gonna keep climbing on its own. I don't know if it will be a multi-week #1, because that's tough to do these days with everyone pushing for the top, but I fully expect it to get there.

I think BA could get to #1 in as few as 4 weeks, though it could be 5. And that's because she's really picked up the pace. On tonight's 9/29 BB chart, she's up to #7, with more than 26 million AI's, so she's roughly only 10 million or so from the top. That'd be an average gain of 2 million per week over the next 5 weeks, and she's done better than that over the last couple of weeks, including tonight's chart. It will slow a little bit due to the usual competition that abounds in the top 5, but right now I can definitely see this being #1 in the 5-weeks-from-today scenario. That leaves Hunter, Jason, Jana, and Dustin to have the next 4 charts to themselves. Personally, I'm thinking Hunter gets a 2nd week, Jason gets 2 weeks, and Dustin gets one week before Carrie takes over, so that would leave Jana stuck with a top 5 peak, but not quite a #1. Should be interesting to watch it all play out.

[jptexas]

I'm with you, 4-5 weeks seems to be the trend.

[Zazie]

It's also possible that Jason Aldean will get to #1 ahead of Carrie on the Indicator chart, even though she passed him this past week. The gap in spins is very small.

I believe, though I haven't studied it closely, that by looking at the Indicator chart you can tell something about when older songs are ready to fall on the main chart. But I don't believe that you can tell much about what will happen to relatively young songs. So Jana's +4 on the 9/29 Indicator chart suggests it won't be long before she's heading down. But I wouldn't draw any conclusion about Carrie.

[Marv]

KEEY PD Gregg Swedberg created a ruckus last year by castigating both Nashville and many of the format's megastars for putting out some really crappy tunes which radio felt obligated to play regardless of merit, which only clogged up the charts even more; his blistering remark 'We're going to make our own hits' really trattled a ton of cages nationwide.

KEEY & two San Diego stations (KSON & KUSS, which flipped last year) did indeed play 'The More Boys I Meet' before Arista finally decided to release 'I Told You So' as a single, and they also played the thunderous 'Songs Like This' quite a bit, which motivated many more stattions to start airing it enough so that it eventually made the mid-thirties @ Mediabase.

Carrie will pass Josh come Monday or Tuesday to take over the #5 slot @ Mediabase.

[jptexas]

#5 this morning
I'm thinking BA will get 2 weeks at the top

[Deleted]

Sept 23, 2012 11:18:43 GMT -5 jptexas said:

#5 this morning
I'm thinking BA will get 2 weeks at the top

Is there anything else below it that could threaten that possibility? I'd love to see Carrie get a multi-week #1 out of this song because she hasn't had one since 2008 with Just A Dream.

[onebuffalo]

Sept 23, 2012 13:24:36 GMT -5 @14887fan said:

Sept 23, 2012 11:18:43 GMT -5 jptexas said:

#5 this morning
I'm thinking BA will get 2 weeks at the top

Is there anything else below it that could threaten that possibility? I'd love to see Carrie get a multi-week #1 out of this song because she hasn't had one since 2008 with Just A Dream.

Lee Brice. Maybe.

[Deleted]

Saw a post scrolling through Carrie Underwood tags on Tumblr that this is now #1 in Canada. Can anyone confirm?

[onebuffalo]

Sept 23, 2012 13:33:13 GMT -5 @14887fan said:

Saw a post scrolling through Carrie Underwood tags on Tumblr that this is now #1 in Canada. Can anyone confirm?

I know it was at #2 for the past couple of weeks behind Pontoon. I won't know until Wednesday, but others I'm sure will post it way before then.

[joey2002]

Sept 23, 2012 13:28:31 GMT -5 onebuffalo said:

Sept 23, 2012 13:24:36 GMT -5 @14887fan said:

Is there anything else below it that could threaten that possibility? I'd love to see Carrie get a multi-week #1 out of this song because she hasn't had one since 2008 with Just A Dream.

Lee Brice. Maybe.

Nah, Lee Brice is nearly 10 Million behind Carrie on Mediabase... the only song fairly close behind her is Easton Corbin, but I don't see him as a major threat. I'd bet on 2 weeks at #1.

[onebuffalo]

Lee Brice, in Billboard is 'only' 4.6 million behind Carrie Underwood.

[.indulgecountry]

How is Lee Brice 10 million behind on one chart but only 4.6 million behind on the other? I know there's some disperity between the two, but that just doesn't sound right to me. ???

I, too, am pulling for at least two weeks at the top per the reasons stated by 14887fan.

[onebuffalo]

Sept 23, 2012 15:12:42 GMT -5 .indulgecountry said:

How is Lee Brice 10 million behind on one chart but only 4.6 million behind on the other? I know there's some disperity between the two, but that just doesn't sound right to me. ???

I, too, am pulling for at least two weeks at the top per the reasons stated by 14887fan.

Mediabase numbers:
Blown Away-41.315
Hard To Love-32.899
Difference is 8.4 million

Billboard numbers:
Blown Away-26.354
Hard To Love-21.740
Difference is 4.6 million

[peterca]

Sept 23, 2012 15:18:40 GMT -5 onebuffalo said:

Sept 23, 2012 15:12:42 GMT -5 .indulgecountry said:

How is Lee Brice 10 million behind on one chart but only 4.6 million behind on the other? I know there's some disperity between the two, but that just doesn't sound right to me. ???

I, too, am pulling for at least two weeks at the top per the reasons stated by 14887fan.

Mediabase numbers:
Blown Away-41.315
Hard To Love-32.899
Difference is 8.4 million

Billboard numbers:
Blown Away-26.354
Hard To Love-21.740
Difference is 4.6 million

The BB numbers are as of Sept 17th and the MB numbers are as of Sept 23rd, correct?

For this week, 9/16 to 9/23, (Mediabase) Blown Away gained 1.058 million on Hard To Love. If this translates to about 700k on BB, then Carrie's lead over Lee is about 5.3 million.

[Deleted]

The extra discrepancy is likely caused by the Dial Global satellite radio stations that are on the Mediabase panel, but NOT the Billboard panel. That's been a big cause for weird ratios. Lately, the norm is usually about 0.75 for songs near the top, then it moves down to around 0.7 for songs around #10 or so, and gradually decreases into the 0.65 range. That's pretty common through the 20's and into the 30's even. The very new songs will have high ratios (above 0.8) at first, before they will 'normalize' into the 0.65-ish range, and then slowly get better as they climb higher.

But, the Dial Global stations can really throw things off. The Mainstream Country channel contributes HUGE numbers to the Mediabase report. As seen here, nearly 40 spins can give you almost 4 million AI's. And that's just on one station. Carrie has more than 1 million AI's more than Lee does on the particular station that I linked to...BA has 36 spins and 3.5 million AI's there, while Lee's HTL is one tier lower with 26 spins and 2.5 million AI's. The other satellite station is Dial Global's Hot Country, but that one doesn't affect the charts nearly as much as Mainstream Country does...on Hot Country, the top songs might have 1.5 million AI's with the same amount of spins (37-40) as the top songs on Mainstream Country.

But the discrepancy between Lee and Carrie isn't all that weird. You can't compare the numbers from BB on Monday to the numbers from MB today, because obviously the BB numbers are no longer the same. They were separated by about 4.6 million on Billboard on Monday, and that same day on Mediabase, the gap was about 7.3 million. Carrie has had the bigger week (up 4 million over the past 6 days), but Lee has still had a very strong week (3 million gain over the same span). In my projections, I've got Carrie widening her Billboard lead on tomorrow's 10/6 chart to about 5.3 million.

But that's not really a huge gap by any means. Songs always slow a bit in the top 5 (where BA is just getting to), because they don't have all that much left to gain. So I can't see the gap getting much wider than it is. Carrie should easily get to #1, and it's possible that she could get 2 weeks there, but any more than that seems highly unlikely and it's impossible to even know yet if she can get 2. I thought Hunter Hayes would get 2 (and he has gotten 2 on MB, but not BB), but he began falling enough that Jason has caught and passed him on Billboard.

There's a chance that Carrie could be the one to follow Jason at #1, but I still think that either Dustin or Jana (maybe even both, but it seems a bit unlikely) will sneak in a week after Jason before Carrie gets there. And, keep in mind, that Lee Brice isn't even Carrie's closest pursuer...Easton Corbin is still hanging in there and may have a shot at #1 down the road as well.

[Marv]

Carrie will undoubtedly pass Hunter this week; the only question remains whether she'll pass the Jana Kramer tune as well.

[onebuffalo]

Sept 23, 2012 16:09:50 GMT -5 peterca said:

Sept 23, 2012 15:18:40 GMT -5 onebuffalo said:

Mediabase numbers:
Blown Away-41.315
Hard To Love-32.899
Difference is 8.4 million

Billboard numbers:
Blown Away-26.354
Hard To Love-21.740
Difference is 4.6 million

The BB numbers are as of Sept 17th and the MB numbers are as of Sept 23rd, correct?

For this week, 9/16 to 9/23, (Mediabase) Blown Away gained 1.058 million on Hard To Love. If this translates to about 700k on BB, then Carrie's lead over Lee is about 5.3 million.

Let us finally compare apples to apples:
Mediabase numbers:
Blown Away-41.315
Hard To Love-32.899
Difference is 8.4 million

Billboard numbers:
Blown Away-30.777
Hard To Love-25.175
Difference is 5.6 million

You were close with your 5.3 million projection!

[onebuffalo]

Sept 23, 2012 13:37:08 GMT -5 onebuffalo said:

Sept 23, 2012 13:33:13 GMT -5 @14887fan said:

Saw a post scrolling through Carrie Underwood tags on Tumblr that this is now #1 in Canada. Can anyone confirm?

I know it was at #2 for the past couple of weeks behind Pontoon. I won't know until Wednesday, but others I'm sure will post it way before then.

I will post it then. Blown Away is #1 in Canada!

[Zazie]

Sept 23, 2012 20:04:20 GMT -5 Marv said:

Carrie will undoubtedly pass Hunter this week; the only question remains whether she'll pass the Jana Kramer tune as well.

Carrie isn't gaining that quickly at the start of the BB chart week, but that could change by tomorrow. If things go as they have gone Tuesday and Wednesday, Carrie and Jana are aiming at the same audience number. But I'd be surprised if Jana doesn't start trending downward. So far, the race is undecided.

As for Lee Brice, he's gaining rapidly on Carrie right now, and yes, he has a chance to hold her to 1 week at the top. But I'd hesitate to predict that will happen based on two days of data.

[NeRD]

Looks like a clear path for this to #1. :'(

[Deleted]

Sept 30, 2012 13:40:47 GMT -5 NeRD said:

Looks like a clear path for this to #1. :'(

And, to make it even more helpful, it seems as though it'll be peaking at #1 at the end of October -- just in time for CMA promo week

Plus, Carrie's co-hosting CCUSA for the weekend of October 27-28. It's all so perfect.
Now, it's time for some crossover promo, starting with an actual CHR adds date.

[Marv]

She could conceivably reach #1 this week, since the top three songs are currently presiding at the top of an extremely 'soft' chart.

For a song which shot to #1 in a very brisk ten weeks, Jason's tune isn't acting like a song which shot to #1 that fast, 95% of them of which have wound up spending 4+ weeks at #1 going back to the mid-nineties.

Even if you factor in the 'Great Country Charrt Slowdown of 2003' as Lon did in his R&R column in 2005, Jason's tune doesn't appear to be that robust as it relates to spin gains.

[carrieidol1]

This could very well become Carrie's first multi-week #1 since "Just A Dream" back in 2008.

[Deleted]

Sept 30, 2012 18:10:15 GMT -5 Marv said:

She could conceivably reach #1 this week, since the top three songs are currently presiding at the top of an extremely 'soft' chart.

For a song which shot to #1 in a very brisk ten weeks, Jason's tune isn't acting like a song which shot to #1 that fast, 95% of them of which have wound up spending 4+ weeks at #1 going back to the mid-nineties.

Even if you factor in the 'Great Country Charrt Slowdown of 2003' as Lon did in his R&R column in 2005, Jason's tune doesn't appear to be that robust as it relates to spin gains.

Soft chart? I'm gonna have to disagree there. Jason's looking to have the highest Billboard audience total we've seen in months...he should be over 38 million. Dustin Lynch will be #2, and with him being Jason's labelmate, I fully expect BBR to really push Dustin this week in hopes that he'll be #1 a week from now.

And Marv, no one spends 4 weeks at #1 anymore. This will be Jason's 2nd week at #1 on Billboard, but I predict that's all he'll get. We've only had 5 songs spend 4 weeks at #1 in the last 3 years...Lady Antebellum's "Need You Now" (5-weeker), Reba's "Consider Me Gone" immediately after that (Janurary 2010), and then Miranda's "The House That Built Me" in June 2010, Blake's "Honey Bee" in June/July 2011, and ZBB's "Keep Me In Mind" in December 2011/January 2012.

And other than "Honey Bee", which hit #1 in its 10th week (just as Jason has done here), none of those other songs made it nearly as quickly. Lady A's tune hit #1 in its 14th week, Miranda hit #1 in her 15th week, Reba in her 20th, and the ZBB in its 17th week. So I don't think you can use the example of going back to the mid 90's...radio and the charts are way different now. I mean, dating back to July 2010, more than 2 years ago, we've only had 2 songs spend 4 weeks at #1, so even my example is a bit front-loaded, since Lady A, Reba, and Miranda were all in the 1st half of 2010.

Over the same time span (2010-2012), we've had more songs than not get to #1 pretty quickly and then not stick around that long. Kenny's "The Boys Of Fall" needed just 11 weeks to hit #1 for the October 9, 2010, Billboard chart, and that song only spent 2 weeks at the top. Later in November 2010, the superb Zac Brown Band/Alan Jackson duet "As She's Walking Away" hit #1 after just 13 weeks but also wound up with only 2 weeks on top.

And the examples of quick rises and short stays at the top increase more beginning in 2011 and into this year. Kenny did get 3 weeks at #1 with "Somewhere With You", a song which only needed 13 weeks to get there in the first place. But he also hit #1 with "Live A Little", after just 12 weeks, and only spent the 1 week on top. Brad's "Old Alabama" hit #1 in just 11 weeks, but only got 2 weeks on top the Billboard chart, and just 1 at Mediabase. ZBB's "Knee Deep", Brad & Carrie's "Remind Me", Keith's "Long Hot Summer", and Carrie's "Good Girl" all hit #1 fairly quickly but only got 1 week on top.

And some of the biggest hits this year, in terms of chart-climbing speed and digital sales, only managed 2 weeks at #1. "Springsteen", "Drunk On You", "Pontoon", "Wanted" (1 week at BB, 2 at MB), and now Jason (2 weeks at BB, 1 at MB). Kenny's "Come Over" hit #1 in only 11 weeks and again, only spent 2 weeks on top.

Things are different now. Songs rarely fly to #1 in 10 weeks...this song here and "Honey Bee" are the only 2 to do so since 2009. I don't know what the last song to do it was before Blake did it last year, but I have all the chart runs of songs since "Need You Now" which topped the last chart of 2009 and remained #1 for the December 09 charts, and only Blake and now Jason have hit #1 in 10 weeks since then. But just because Blake got his 4 weeks at #1, didn't make me expect Jason to do so. We've had many 2 week #1's this year, but not a single song has even gotten to 3 weeks at #1 since the ZBB got their 4 weeks at #1 with "Keep Me In Mind" back at New Year's.

I've been expecting Jason to get 2 weeks at best, and then I think Dustin Lynch will probably snag a week at #1 before Carrie hits the top 2 weeks from today. I'm thinking "Blown Away" may be able to get 2 weeks on top but again, I just don't see any serious 3-week #1 candidates out there right now, just because of the current patterns at radio and with the charts. And with the way Lee Brice has exploded, it's not even a guarantee that Carrie will get 2 weeks.

[Zazie]

Indulging in pure speculation, I'll say that Brad's song could be 3-week #1. But there aren't a lot of contenders for that level of staying on top.

Lee Brice gained about 2 million the last 2 days. Not that he can keep that pace up, but I'd have to second the opinion that he could hold Carrie to one week on top. If she really pushes for 2 weeks, she can get them, probably.

[Marv]

Nevertheless having three bulleted songs in the Mediabase top three with spin gains which are downright mediocre historically speaking (whether you back three years or ten years) makes for a soft chart.

Granted the charts have never been more politicized as Carriefans moderator Cary astutely pointed out recently, with plenty of 'backroom politics' all over the place, but combine that with tons of squeamish and overly cautious PDs and MDs from coast to coast, and that's how you wind up with a slew of 35+ week old songs on the charts.

It doesn't make for exciting radio when you have so many old songs on the radio, but since the Nashville chieftains have endorsed it, we country listeners wind up paying the price, while the number of downright absurd chart performances continues to soar.

If Josh winds up #1 for the year at both trades, unless Jana Kramer overtakes him at BB as Zazie pointed out recently, then so be it.

But as somebody (or several of us) have stated on this board recently, chart-watching isn't nearly as much fun as it used to be.

[Deleted]

I'm just so over this "After you!/No, after you!/No, after you!"-structured charting for Country. More than half of the songs that hit the top spot this year did not deserve to be anywhere near it.

If Blown Away, one of the strongest releases by a Country artist in 2012, is edged out to one week at the top by Lee freaking Brice (can't stand him personally), I'll be really pissed. A song as good flawless as this one deserves to receive, at least, 2 weeks atop. Not only that, but it's probably the best single release of Carrie's since she last spent more than one week at #1 (Just A Dream - 2008).

Either Lee can step back for an extra damn week, or Arista can push like hell to make sure that Carrie maintains the top spot through the two full CMA weeks that the song should be peaking during or near. I won't be happy with one week, especially if Lee kicks Carrie out of a very deserving second (and third, and fourth, etc.)