moore746
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Post by moore746 on Nov 22, 2012 10:22:36 GMT -5
What is unfair about the old chart, however, is that it puts artists who sell more albums vs. singles at a disadvantage.
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cesarams
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Post by cesarams on Nov 29, 2012 9:00:33 GMT -5
12/08: 1- Diamonds-Rihanna 176+126= 302 2- Die Young-Ke$ha 151+115= 266 3- Locked Out of Heaven-Bruno Mars 151+112= 263 4- Gangnam Style-PSY 229+27= 256 5- One More Night-Maroon 5 117+132= 249 6- Home-Phillip Phillips 131+67= 198 7- Ho Hey-The Lumineers 126+70= 196 8- Some Nights-fun. 92+104= 196 9- I Cry-Flo Rida 117+75= 192 10- Let Me Love You(Until You Learn to Love Yourself)-Ne-Yo 48+110= 158
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Pink Pvssy
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Post by Pink Pvssy on Nov 29, 2012 9:41:49 GMT -5
So with this new formula, how high is the probability that Britney and Lady Gaga will debut at #1 when they release their lead singles?
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cesarams
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Post by cesarams on Dec 6, 2012 8:49:08 GMT -5
12/15: 1- Locked Out of Heaven-Bruno Mars 135+124= 259 2- Diamonds-Rihanna 122+134= 256 3- Die Young-Ke$ha 122+121= 243 4- One More Night-Maroon 5 90+124= 214 5- Scream & Shout-will.i.am ft. Britney Spears 196+10= 206 6- Ho Hey-The Lumineers 127+78= 205 7- Home-Phillip Phillips 118+70= 188 8- I Cry-Flo Rida 96+82= 178 9- Some Nights-fun. 80+98= 178 10- Girl On Fire-Alicia Keys ft. Nicki Minaj 140+33= 173
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cesarams
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Post by cesarams on Dec 13, 2012 9:35:46 GMT -5
12/22: 1- Locked Out of Heaven-Bruno Mars 197+129= 326 2- Diamonds-Rihanna 143+134= 277 3- Ho Hey-The Lumineers 132+89= 221 4- Die Young-Ke$ha 96+125= 221 5- One More Night-Maroon 5 75+116= 191 6- Home-Phillip Phillips 105+75= 180 7- I Cry-Flo Rida 92+85= 177 8- I Knew You Were Trouble-Taylor Swift 129+37= 166 9- Beauty and a Beat-Justin Bieber ft. Nicki Minaj 107+57= 164 10- Scream & Shout-will.i.am ft. Britney Spears 142+17= 159
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Dec 14, 2012 16:48:41 GMT -5
So with this new formula, how high is the probability that Britney and Lady Gaga will debut at #1 when they release their lead singles? It really depends on the week. Had Taylor Swift not debuted in the mid 70s with "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" due to high airplay alone, she would have, as it shot it to number one the following week with zero streaming points. I would suspect Britney and Gaga to both release to streaming on their first weeks, which should give them an advantage. They should have strong airplay like Taylor did, but their sales may not be as high as Taylor's were. "Hold It Against Me" debuted in the 400s and "Born This Way" did as well. Britney's next single should debut roughly the same. Gaga's is hard to tell. "Born This Way" was released mid-week. It's very likely had she had the whole week she would've debuted with 600k or maybe even 700k. But, Gaga has lost some steam since the Born This Way era. I still don't see her debuting with less than 400k to 500k, though. Now Justin Bieber's "Boyfriend" debuted at #2 when it opened up with over 500k. (Oddly enough, the very first week with the new formula.) "Boyfriend" would have debuted had it not been for the juggarnaut "We Are Young" blocking its way. Taylor's competition was "Whistle," which was big, but nowhere near as big as "We Are Young" was. If Britney and/or Gaga release on a week where the top song is weaker like "Whistle," they should debut at numer one or at least get to that spot on the second week like Taylor. If it's strong, like "We Are Young," then they may have to settle for #2 at least for their debut sales weeks.
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crystalphnx
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Post by crystalphnx on Dec 14, 2012 16:58:44 GMT -5
So with this new formula, how high is the probability that Britney and Lady Gaga will debut at #1 when they release their lead singles? Now Justin Bieber's "Boyfriend" debuted at #2 when it opened up with over 500k. (Oddly enough, the very first week with the new formula.) "Boyfriend" would have debuted had it not been for the juggarnaut "We Are Young" blocking its way. Taylor's competition was "Whistle," which was big, but nowhere near as big as "We Are Young" was. If Britney and/or Gaga release on a week where the top song is weaker like "Whistle," they should debut at numer one or at least get to that spot on the second week like Taylor. If it's strong, like "We Are Young," then they may have to settle for #2 at least for their debut sales weeks. The fatal flaw with "Boyfriend" was not releasing it to streaming, right? IIRC, it had 0 points when "We Are Young" was around No. 1 (somewhere very close to the top) on the new On-Demand Chart. Of course, since the Hot 100 formula JUST changed, there we no way for Bieber's label to know that they were forfeiting their chance at No. 1 by not releasing the song to streaming services. I was really enjoying the turnover rate at No. 1 from 2006-2011 (especially after 2005), but with airplay weighted the way it is now, I fear we'll be seeing around 10-12 (or less) Hot 100 No. 1's a year again. This isn't to say that I want the No. 1 song to change every week either, but I think the chart is more fun to follow when songs aren't constantly lingering on top for 6+ weeks.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Dec 14, 2012 17:13:37 GMT -5
Yeah, "Boyfriend" did not have streaming, which likely would have gotten it to number one, though nothing is certain there.
Anyway, I think the low turnover rate is not because of the new formula. Look at all the number ones since the new formula began: We Are Young Somebody That I Used to Know Call Me Maybe Whistle We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together One More Night Diamonds Locked Out of Heaven
Four of those lasted several weeks on top, but all four of them were absolutely massive hits that would've been to number one with the old formula as well. In fact, with the old formula, there are only a few songs that would have gone number one there that didn't here. "Boyfriend," "Wide Awake," "Gangnam Style," "Live While We're Young," and "I Knew You Were Trouble." would have. So only five, and all but one (the exception of course "Gangnsm Style") would have lasted for only one week. I don't mind one week number ones, but it just doesn't feel like a number one hit to me when they're only there for one week.
"Diamonds" just lasted for four weeks, right? That's a pretty good amount of time and I feel like most future number ones are going to have about that same amount of time at number one.
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Post by Rocky on Dec 14, 2012 17:40:39 GMT -5
"Diamonds" just lasted for four weeks, right? That's a pretty good amount of time and I feel like most future number ones are going to have about that same amount of time at number one. Three, to be exact. I feel the same though, that 3-4 weeks on top will be the standard (see Diamonds, WANEGBT).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2012 17:50:06 GMT -5
Boyfriend's debut was actually on the 4th week of the new formula; it was just that nothing eventfully happened during the first three weeks to make anyone bat an eye.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Dec 14, 2012 18:01:36 GMT -5
Boyfriend's debut was actually on the 4th week of the new formula; it was just that nothing eventfully happened during the first three weeks to make anyone bat an eye. What? But I remember the Billboard article that came out that very week about the new formula and the differences it made on the chart. I know the ODSongs chart was in its trial run before hand for about 3-4 weeks, but I didn't think that those weeks were actually counted into the Hot 100 yet.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2012 18:11:16 GMT -5
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crystalphnx
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Post by crystalphnx on Dec 14, 2012 19:22:02 GMT -5
Four of those lasted several weeks on top, but all four of them were absolutely massive hits that would've been to number one with the old formula as well. In fact, with the old formula, there are only a few songs that would have gone number one there that didn't here. "Boyfriend," "Wide Awake," "Gangnam Style," "Live While We're Young," and "I Knew You Were Trouble." would have. So only five, and all but one (the exception of course "Gangnsm Style") would have lasted for only one week. I don't mind one week number ones, but it just doesn't feel like a number one hit to me when they're only there for one week. hmmm...I don't see it as "only" 5 songs, though. In the SoundScan era, where I don't believe there's been any year with more than 18 songs reaching No. 1, I think a difference of 12 (new formula) VS 17 (old formula) No. 1 hits in 2012 is pretty significant. I also don't see 1-week No. 1's the way you do, but I realize a lot of people share your view. LWWY is the only song that was "denied" the No. 1 spot that just plummeted down the Hot 100, so I can understand how that one doesn't feel like a No. 1 hit...but, at the same time, "One More Night" didn't feel like a No. 1 hit to me, despite spending 9 weeks at No. 1, so I guess we've all got our different impressions of how big a hit really is. My preference is just for an overall faster turn-over on top, even if it does mean several 1-week No. 1's. I enjoyed the mix of runs at No. 1 we were seeing on top in 2006-2011 (well, apart from that summer of nonstop BEP...)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2012 19:38:04 GMT -5
One More Night was definitely something I can picture as a 2 or 3 week #1. But it is just not something I can really view as a 9-week #1. It just didn't have that level of dominance and ubiquity that something like We Found Love had. And trying to discredit 1-week #1s is a terrible method of thinking. If the Christmas week hadn't been split last year, then Sexy And I Know It would have likely only gotten one week at #1. That would not have meant that it was any less of a #1 hit than other songs. It fought and fought against a huge #1 smash and managed to make it to the top for a week. Once again it all dates back to airplay, a slow-moving middle-of-the-road component dominating a chart that is meant to represent the 'most popular' song, not 'most agreeable'.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Dec 14, 2012 19:45:34 GMT -5
Yeah, I mean, airplay should be a component in the Hot 100, but it has too much of a weighting at the moment. It's kind of ridiculous, to be honest.
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cesarams
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Post by cesarams on Dec 20, 2012 8:47:23 GMT -5
12/29: 1- Locked Out of Heaven-Bruno Mars 222+135= 357 2- Diamonds-Rihanna 121+139= 260 3- Ho Hey-The Lumineers 131+102= 233 4- I Knew You Were Trouble-Taylor Swift 167+51= 218 5- Die Young-Ke$ha 94+97= 191 6- Beauty and a Beat-Justin Bieber ft. Nicki Minaj 108+62= 170 7- I Cry-Flo Rida 75+88= 163 8- Home-Phillip Phillips 89+72= 161 9- One More Night-Maroon 5 59+100= 159 10- Scream & Shout-will.i.am ft. Britney Spears 120+30= 150
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cesarams
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Post by cesarams on Dec 20, 2012 9:06:11 GMT -5
Updating the list with all the #1's this year if the formula had never changed.
8 weeks - Somebody that I Used to Know-Gotye ft. Kimbra 6 weeks - Call Me Maybe-Carly Rae Jepsen 5 weeks - Gangnam Style-PSY We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together-Taylor Swift We Are Young-fun. ft. Janelle Monáe 3 weeks - Locked Out of Heaven-Bruno Mars Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)-Kelly Clarkson Whistle-Flo Rida 2 weeks - Diamonds-Rihanna Set Fire to the Rain-Adele Sexy and I Know It-LMFAO We Found Love-Rihanna ft. Calvin Harris 1 week - Boyfriend-Justin Bieber I Knew You Were Trouble.-Taylor Swift Live While We're Young-One Direction One More Night-Maroon 5 Part of Me-Katy Perry Wide Awake-Katy Perry
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Feb 20, 2013 16:27:24 GMT -5
02/23/13 chart with the old formula:
# - artist - song - # with the real formula 1. Macklmore & Ryan Lewis ft. Wanz - Thrift Shop (#1) 2. Taylor Swift - I Knew You Were Trouble (#5) 3. Will.i.am. ft. Britney Spears - Scream & Shout (#3) 4. The Lumineers - Ho Hey (#4) 5. Bruno Mars - Locked Out Of Heaven (#2) 6. Swedish House Mafia - Don't You Worry Child (#6) 7. Maroon 5 - Daylight (#7) 8. Bruno Mars - When I Was Your Man (#9) 9. Justin Timberlake ft. Jay-Z - Suit & Tie (#8) 10. Calvin Harris ft. Florence Welch - Sweet Nothing
11. Alicia Keys ft. Nicki Minaj - Girl On Fire (#12) 12. Justin Bieber ft. Nicki Minaj - Beauty And A Beat (#10) 13. P!nk - Try (#13) 14. Mumford & Sons - I Will Wait (#15) 15. A$ap Rocky - F**kin Problems (#11)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2013 21:38:08 GMT -5
Now you should do the hot 100 with the NEW old formula
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RadioKaKa
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Post by RadioKaKa on Feb 22, 2013 3:12:35 GMT -5
Now you should do the hot 100 with the NEW old formula Funny
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cesarams
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Post by cesarams on Feb 22, 2013 9:35:25 GMT -5
So with the (new) old formula, this week (03/02) would've been:
1- Thrift Shop-Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Wanz 2- Ho Hey-The Lumineers 3- Locked Out of Heaven-Bruno Mars 4- Suit & Tie-Justin Timberlake ft. Jay-Z 5- Scream & Shout-will.i.am ft. Britney Spears 6- I Knew You Were Trouble-Taylor Swift 7- When I Was Your Man-Bruno Mars 8- Don't You Worry Child-Swedish House Mafia ft. John Martin 9- Stay-Rihanna ft. Mikky Ekko 10- I Will Wait-Mumford & Sons
Harlem Shake would debut only at #13.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2013 10:13:44 GMT -5
Well that sucks. >:( I Will Wait would've made top 10. Where would Started From the Bottom be? I'm guessing only around 15-30.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2013 10:16:08 GMT -5
So with the (new) old formula, this week (03/02) would've been: 1- Thrift Shop-Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Wanz 2- Ho Hey-The Lumineers 3- Locked Out of Heaven-Bruno Mars 4- Suit & Tie-Justin Timberlake ft. Jay-Z 5- Scream & Shout-will.i.am ft. Britney Spears 6- I Knew You Were Trouble-Taylor Swift 7- When I Was Your Man-Bruno Mars 8- Don't You Worry Child-Swedish House Mafia ft. John Martin 9- Stay-Rihanna ft. Mikky Ekko 10- I Will Wait-Mumford & Sons Harlem Shake would debut only at #13. You know the old formula was crap when a song selling 270k in a week was only #13.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Feb 22, 2013 10:21:27 GMT -5
So with the (new) old formula, this week (03/02) would've been: 1- Thrift Shop-Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Wanz 2- Ho Hey-The Lumineers 3- Locked Out of Heaven-Bruno Mars 4- Suit & Tie-Justin Timberlake ft. Jay-Z 5- Scream & Shout-will.i.am ft. Britney Spears 6- I Knew You Were Trouble-Taylor Swift 7- When I Was Your Man-Bruno Mars 8- Don't You Worry Child-Swedish House Mafia ft. John Martin 9- Stay-Rihanna ft. Mikky Ekko 10- I Will Wait-Mumford & Sons Harlem Shake would debut only at #13. You know the old formula was crap when a song selling 270k in a week was only #13. But said song had just over 300k on-demand streams. Both digital sales and streaming are highly respectable in measuring people's interest. Compare that to "Thrift Shop"'s 2 million on-demand streams. Like I've been saying, "Harlem Shake" was only huge in one component last week. Remove it, and you get to see that it really wasn't as big of a song as Billboard made it out to be this week. It should really say something when a song gets 103 million views on YouTube, but only 300k on-demand streams that people are watching it for the video, not the song. I'm not going to say that the (new) old formula was better than the current one, but I do think it represented things a bit more accurately than the current one. I have no problems with Billboard incorporating YouTube views, but the formula they have has got to be tweaked a bit. I know people aren't really talking about it because of "Harlem Shake," but "Stay" is number three with the current formula versus number nine in the old formula. In one, I think it's too low, in the other, I think it's too high.
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Feb 22, 2013 12:16:14 GMT -5
You know the old formula was crap when a song selling 270k in a week was only #13. But said song had just over 300k on-demand streams. Both digital sales and streaming are highly respectable in measuring people's interest. Compare that to "Thrift Shop"'s 2 million on-demand streams. Like I've been saying, "Harlem Shake" was only huge in one component last week. Remove it, and you get to see that it really wasn't as big of a song as Billboard made it out to be this week. It should really say something when a song gets 103 million views on YouTube, but only 300k on-demand streams that people are watching it for the video, not the song. I'm not going to say that the (new) old formula was better than the current one, but I do think it represented things a bit more accurately than the current one. I have no problems with Billboard incorporating YouTube views, but the formula they have has got to be tweaked a bit. I know people aren't really talking about it because of "Harlem Shake," but "Stay" is number three with the current formula versus number nine in the old formula. In one, I think it's too low, in the other, I think it's too high. Agreed. I think #9 is way too low for a song that sold ~300k downloads, and #3 seems more accurate. I hated the old formula - a song #26 in downloads but #2 in Airplay can be in the Top 10 of the Hot 100.
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Feb 22, 2013 17:12:24 GMT -5
Updating the list with all the #1's this year if the formula had never changed. 8 weeks - Somebody that I Used to Know-Gotye ft. Kimbra 6 weeks - Call Me Maybe-Carly Rae Jepsen 5 weeks - Gangnam Style-PSY We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together-Taylor Swift We Are Young-fun. ft. Janelle Monáe 3 weeks - Locked Out of Heaven-Bruno Mars Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)-Kelly Clarkson Whistle-Flo Rida 2 weeks - Diamonds-Rihanna Set Fire to the Rain-Adele Sexy and I Know It-LMFAO We Found Love-Rihanna ft. Calvin Harris 1 week - Boyfriend-Justin Bieber I Knew You Were Trouble.-Taylor Swift Live While We're Young-One Direction One More Night-Maroon 5 Part of Me-Katy Perry Wide Awake-Katy Perry I really wish Wide Awake hit #1. It was so close and would be a nice close to the Teenage Dream era. And it had more airplay and downloads and longevity than Part of Me, the timing of Part of Me was just better. And I Knew You Were Trouble, Boyfriend, and Gangnam Style for sure would've been nice too. They felt like #1s to me.
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Jul 4, 2013 10:40:35 GMT -5
Here's the Hot 100 from 07/13/2013 with the old formula.
# - artist - song - position with the new/real formula
bold: songs that have the same position with the old and the new formula.
1. Robin Thicke ft. T.I. & Pharrell - Blurred Lines (#1) 2. Daft Punk ft. Pharrell - Get Lucky (#2) 3. Imagine Dragons - Radioactive (#4) 4. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Ray Dalton - Can't Hold Us (#5) 5. Justin Timberlake - Mirrors (#7) 6. Florida Gorge Line ft. Nelly - Cruise (#6) 7. Bruno Mars - Treasure (#8) 8. P!nk ft. Nate Ruess - Just Give Me A Reason (#11) 9. Selena Gomez - Come & Get It (#9) 10. Miley Cyrus - We Can't Stop (#3)
11. Icona Pop ft. Charli XCX - I Love It (#12) 12. Ariana Grande ft. Mac Miller - The Way (#10) 13. Zedd ft. Foxes - Clarity (#14) 14. Fall Out Boy - My Songs Know What You Did In The Dark (#15) 15. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Mary Lambert - Same Love (#16) 16. Calvin Harris ft. Ellie Goulding - I Need Your Love (#23) 17. Jason Derulo - The Other Side (#22) 18. Maroon 5 - Love Somebody (#18) 19. Mariah Carey ft. Miguel - #Beautiful (#17) 20. J. Cole ft. Miguel - Power Trip (#21)
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kingofpain
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Post by kingofpain on Jul 4, 2013 11:15:57 GMT -5
That chart makes no sense? Where is Zedd? He's top 20 in both airplay and sales.
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Jul 4, 2013 12:38:09 GMT -5
That chart makes no sense? Where is Zedd? He's top 20 in both airplay and sales. I'm sorry, I made a mistake while typing. Clarity is #13.
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cesarams
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Post by cesarams on Aug 29, 2013 11:33:38 GMT -5
Well, I've been doing this year chart with that old formula (no streaming allowed) just to find out what would've been #1 without streaming. The formula I'm using is SALES/12 + AIRPLAY/7500 + PASSIVE STREAMING/150. The passive streaming was used on the old formula already before the inclusion of On-Demand Streaming. Since we ain't have data about it, I counted it with my estimations, so some positions here may be wrong.
2013: 01/05: 1- Locked Out of Heaven - Bruno Mars 2- Diamonds - Rihanna 3- I Knew You Were Trouble - Taylor Swift 4- Ho Hey - The Lumineers 5- Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber feat. Nicki Minaj 6- One More Night - Maroon 5 7- Home - Phillip Phillips 8- I Cry - Flo Rida 9- Die Young - Ke$ha 10- Try - P!nk
01/12: 1- Locked Out of Heaven - Bruno Mars 2- I Knew You Were Trouble - Taylor Swift 3- Diamonds - Rihanna 4- Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber feat. Nicki Minaj 5- Ho Hey - The Lumineers 6- One More Night - Maroon 5 7- Gangnam Style - PSY 8- Die Young - Ke$ha 9- Home - Phillip Phillips 10- I Cry - Flo Rida
01/19: 1- Locked Out of Heaven - Bruno Mars 2- I Knew You Were Trouble - Taylor Swift 3- Ho Hey - The Lumineers 4- Diamonds - Rihanna 5- Home - Phillip Phillips 6- Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber feat. Nicki Minaj 7- Thrift Shop - Macklemore & Ryan Lewis feat. Wanz 8- I Cry - Flo Rida 9- One More Night - Maroon 5 10- Scream & Shout - will.i.am feat. Britney Spears
01/26: 1- I Knew You Were Trouble - Taylor Swift 2- Locked Out of Heaven - Bruno Mars 3- Thrift Shop - Macklemore & Ryan Lewis feat. Wanz 4- Ho Hey - The Lumineers 5- Diamonds - Rihanna 6- Scream & Shout - will.i.am feat. Britney Spears 7- Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber feat. Nicki Minaj 8- Don't You Worry Child - Swedish House Mafia feat. John Martin 9- Home - Phillip Phillips 10- Try - P!nk
I'll keep on posting tomorrow.
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