churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Oct 28, 2013 9:30:34 GMT -5
I thought a few months away usually helps an artist regain some momentum when they make their big radio comeback. As for "Red," I think it will miss #1 because it's racked up more weeks than "Begin Again" had by the time it started struggling, but I do think Big Machine will at least get her into the top 5, which should be easy considering they're got four other big hits in the top 15 right now and can "budget" spins so that Taylor can get some additional airplay. (Not sure how that works, but I've heard speculation that this has been done before, such as with "One of Those Nights" and "Begin Again" or with "Wagon Wheel" and "Give It All We Got Tonight.")
On a side note, I do think "All Too Well" would be a big hit were it released provided there was a shorter radio edit. I don't think Taylor would be having nearly as much trouble at radio if she were still releasing stuff like "Tim McGraw," "Teardrops on My Guitar," etc. It's just that she's really taken on a "poppy" style with her new album. I'm not sure if it's possible for her to become more country with her next album now considering just about every artist is straying further from the traditional country sound these days, but if she did have several more country-sounding songs on her next album, I think she'd be able to salvage her radio career. Brad Paisley is experiencing a similar situation. I don't think it's that radio is retracting support for him. It's just that his new album is so stylistically different from anything played by radio nowadays that it looks as though his radio days are coming to an end, but it's just a matter of radio not liking his new style.
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.indulgecountry
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"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Oct 28, 2013 14:08:19 GMT -5
I thought a few months away usually helps an artist regain some momentum when they make their big radio comeback. A few months away? Absolutely. But if they don't release another country single from Red then radio'd be looking at an absence of new Taylor Swift music for around 9 months, like cerulean pointed out. That's too long when there's still potential to squeeze more out of the current era before moving on. There's no question, imo, at least one more single should be released from this project. I'd prefer "I Almost Do," but "All Too Well" definitely has the potential to stand out and would probably be their best option from a critical standpoint. "Stay Stay Stay" is cute, but it's not memorable so it won't do much for her and I can't see it holding up well within her catalog of hits, even if it sounds pretty radio friendly.
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tsr
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Post by tsr on Oct 28, 2013 14:50:11 GMT -5
If there is one song in Taylor's entire discography that deserves a single release, it's "All too Well." Every other option, imo, pales in comparison.
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ILLUSION
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Post by ILLUSION on Nov 3, 2013 9:33:57 GMT -5
How does this song STILL have a bullet? Wasn't it released MONTHS ago?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2013 10:00:50 GMT -5
How does this song STILL have a bullet? Wasn't it released MONTHS ago? Welcome to country.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Nov 3, 2013 13:56:48 GMT -5
How does this song STILL have a bullet? Wasn't it released MONTHS ago? Billboard just sent Outta My Head to recurrent after 54 weeks on the chart.
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Nov 3, 2013 15:45:57 GMT -5
I guess it's a 50-50 situation with whether to release another single. A nine-month break could really hurt Taylor, or her career could be hurt worse by trying to throw out another single off an album of radio mishaps. "Red" has been a pretty slow climber overall and I think another single might start struggling even sooner in its run. It could be dangerous to throw another song from this album out there. "All Too Well" is pretty long and there's not really anything that can be cut without detracting from the quality of the song. "Come Back... Be Here" might or might now be a radio hit. I just see it as highly likely that another single would have even more trouble at radio than "Red." Maybe Taylor could take a quick break and then get a single from a new album out to country radio during the first quarter of 2014, even if a new album won't be ready. I guess the truth is that, regardless of which approach they take, Taylor's radio career is definitely declining and won't last more than a few years unless something major happens to turn it around. Of course, why would Taylor try to make herself more marketable to country radio when she can make much more profit off of single and album sales to her pop audience?
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Post by McCreerian (Harris 2024!) on Nov 3, 2013 15:46:16 GMT -5
How does this song STILL have a bullet? Wasn't it released MONTHS ago? Welcome to country. Let me put it this way. If a man and women conceive while listening to a new single just released on Country radio, the baby will be born before the song peaks. That is reality of Country radio in the 2010's.
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Nov 4, 2013 10:27:38 GMT -5
I think jhomes87 was right about this one not going to #1. Taylor is co-hosting Country Countdown USA two weekends after Chris Young, and there are three #1 contenders between "Aw Naw" and "Red" on the chart right now, so I don't think she'll be able to reach #1 on either chart by the time her final push comes. This song must be getting some really heavy pushing already. I predict a peak of around #5.
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.indulgecountry
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"You left a mark on my face // And brought a dozen red flags in a vase"
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Post by .indulgecountry on Nov 4, 2013 14:24:26 GMT -5
I think jhomes87 was right about this one not going to #1. Taylor is co-hosting Country Countdown USA two weekends after Chris Young, and there are three #1 contenders between "Aw Naw" and "Red" on the chart right now, so I don't think she'll be able to reach #1 on either chart by the time her final push comes. This song must be getting some really heavy pushing already. I predict a peak of around #5. A #5 peak for this would certainly be a fine accomplishment. In the current chart climate of almost every Top 10 entry getting a turn at the top, peaking somewhere lower (like #5) seems to have taken on less meaning in recent years. Still, another solid Top 5 country airplay hit for Taylor Swift is great and there's no question in my mind that at least one further country single release should follow this. There's still a lot of hit potential left on Red and the album is only a year old (and her pattern of releasing an album every two years is likely to continue, meaning she has until late next summer/early fall before she needs to move on.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Nov 4, 2013 17:44:41 GMT -5
I see the Eli Young Band is at #10 for the week. I believe Taylor Swift will be at either #9 or #11 (again).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2013 17:47:18 GMT -5
I see the Eli Young Band is at #10 for the week. I believe Taylor Swift will be at either #9 or #11 (again). It will have to be #11, barring some sort of crazy surprise. Only one song (Night Train) will have gone recurrent. Lee Brice and Luke Bryan will remain in the top 10, and Parmalee has only pulled ahead of Taylor. Thus, the EYB almost certainly (99.99% chance) got Jason's top 10 spot and we'll see "Drunk Last Night" jumping 12-10 tonight while "Red" holds at #11.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Nov 4, 2013 21:19:13 GMT -5
I see the Eli Young Band is at #10 for the week. I believe Taylor Swift will be at either #9 or #11 (again). It will have to be #11, barring some sort of crazy surprise. Only one song (Night Train) will have gone recurrent. Lee Brice and Luke Bryan will remain in the top 10, and Parmalee has only pulled ahead of Taylor. Thus, the EYB almost certainly (99.99% chance) got Jason's top 10 spot and we'll see "Drunk Last Night" jumping 12-10 tonight while "Red" holds at #11. Yeah, "Red" logs another week at #11. Next week, Lee Brice will go recurrent and she might pass Luke Bryan, but Darius Rucker and The Band Perry are coming on strong right behind her. She's got to pick it up a bit to secure a top 10 spot.
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Nov 5, 2013 1:35:57 GMT -5
My guess is that this is getting a lot of overnight spins on the more "weighty" Mediabase stations and may end up peaking two or three spaces lower on Billboard than Mediabase. This is starting to remind me of "More Than Miles," another song that, despite missing the top 5 on both charts, received a massively inflated peak position and was pushed quite hard by the BMLG. MTM was also constantly being passed by songs on the Billboard panel which would pass it on the Mediabase panel a week or two later.
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jughead
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Post by jughead on Nov 5, 2013 18:46:36 GMT -5
I think Taylor's declining radio airplay is mostly in part to the fact that "Red" (the album) is more pop than country, even more evident than on Fearless or Speak Now. Plus, it also didn't help that they decided to release WANEGBT as a country single. It's not that the succeeding singles released to country are bad, it's just that most DJs have become more hesitant to play them because of how they perceive Red the album. I'd say Taylor won't have much of a struggle should her fifth LP be along the lines of Speak Now or Fearless.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2013 21:06:57 GMT -5
As long as Taylor keeps making semi-country music for country radio, she'll still get played. She is, far and away, the biggest worldwide star with ties to the country genre. Her fan-base is huge, and country radio will want to keep those listeners tuned in, even if they don't like that much country music other than Swift's.
She might not go top 10 or #1 with every release, but neither did Shania. I don't think the two are very similar, other than the fact that each of them has been considered as the 'pop-country' standard-bearer for her day. I've just always thought Taylor's discography would look quite a bit like Shania's did.
Of course, if country radio continues to progress further and further away from the country genre, then Taylor might not have a problem even if her music keeps trending more and more to the pop side. She might not actually be that far out ahead of the wave, so to speak.
All I'm saying is that, if Taylor and Big Machine want her to remain a presence on country radio, then she will keep making the music that she needs to make in order for country radio to play her.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Nov 6, 2013 10:27:41 GMT -5
As long as Taylor keeps making semi-country music for country radio, she'll still get played. She is, far and away, the biggest worldwide star with ties to the country genre. Her fan-base is huge, and country radio will want to keep those listeners tuned in, even if they don't like that much country music other than Swift's. She might not go top 10 or #1 with every release, but neither did Shania. I don't think the two are very similar, other than the fact that each of them has been considered as the 'pop-country' standard-bearer for her day. I've just always thought Taylor's discography would look quite a bit like Shania's did. Of course, if country radio continues to progress further and further away from the country genre, then Taylor might not have a problem even if her music keeps trending more and more to the pop side. She might not actually be that far out ahead of the wave, so to speak. All I'm saying is that, if Taylor and Big Machine want her to remain a presence on country radio, then she will keep making the music that she needs to make in order for country radio to play her. Which is why the C.M.A. is giving Taylor Swift the Pinnacle Award tonight. Hopefully, it will be a reminder to her (and Big Machine) to keep her a presence at country radio for the next CD.
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Typo
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Post by Typo on Nov 6, 2013 18:21:48 GMT -5
The ~special CMA rendition of "Red" w/ Vince Gill & Alison Krauss is getting released to iTunes tonight. And I would assume sent to radio, as well.
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Joe1240
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Post by Joe1240 on Nov 7, 2013 1:13:15 GMT -5
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Nov 7, 2013 22:22:17 GMT -5
I enjoyed that performance, and thought it was really well done.
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Taylor.
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Post by Taylor. on Nov 7, 2013 22:36:21 GMT -5
It's up for sale now. It's just the live version, I was kind of expecting a studio so they could send it to radio.
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jughead
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Post by jughead on Nov 7, 2013 23:12:00 GMT -5
I was just wondering if sales of the CMA version of the song would count towards the original version? Or would they be counted separately?
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Joe1240
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Post by Joe1240 on Nov 8, 2013 0:54:19 GMT -5
It's up for sale now. It's just the live version, I was kind of expecting a studio so they could send it to radio. Still Great for the iPod :) Great for the Taylor Swift iTunes collection. Glad it is out early.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2013 1:36:10 GMT -5
Wow she nailed it
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Nov 8, 2013 11:19:35 GMT -5
I was just wondering if sales of the CMA version of the song would count towards the original version? Or would they be counted separately? Looks like it's all being counted as one single. Taylor has jumped from #208 to #39 on iTunes in two days according to the Kworb updates. I doubt she'll sustain her radio momentum for long, though.
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Taylor.
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Post by Taylor. on Nov 8, 2013 11:26:39 GMT -5
I was just wondering if sales of the CMA version of the song would count towards the original version? Or would they be counted separately? Looks like it's all being counted as one single. Taylor has jumped from #208 to #39 on iTunes in two days according to the Kworb updates. I doubt she'll sustain her radio momentum for long, though. The CMA performance is charting separately on iTunes-- it's #7 right now. But for Billboard purposes, it should be counted as the same song.
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churchchoir
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Post by churchchoir on Nov 8, 2013 11:32:24 GMT -5
^Thanks. Don't know how I overlooked that. Usually, the Kworb updates indicate if two separate versions of a single are charting on iTunes at the same time.
Another question... How often does iTunes update their charts? Why are the positions on the iTunes website usually a few spaces different than the ones posted to Kworb.net every morning?
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Post by Living Legend on Nov 8, 2013 15:24:40 GMT -5
I think this may dethrone Luke Bryan on the Billboard Country Songs chart next week. It's selling significantly more than "That's My Kind of Night" and has more airplay now. I think "Red" and "We Were Us" will battle it out for #1.
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Post by Old Fart In NC on Nov 8, 2013 18:57:38 GMT -5
^If so it will hit #1 more than a year after debuting at #2 (behind WANEGBT) the first week of the new hybrid methodology.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2013 19:16:34 GMT -5
I really do hope her next album is country. There are way too many max Luther doc Martin produced pop tracks that I cannot tell them apart and don't know why anyone of Taylor's stature would go that route and make herself generic
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