Billboard Hot 100 : 9/14/2013

[Kris]

Maybe she'll bend over for Billboard too.

[Rocky]

Aug 30, 2013 18:23:58 GMT -5 Kris said:

Maybe she'll bend over for Billboard too.

ROOOOOFL. Somebody should edit Robin.

[DJ General]

1. Roar
2. Blurred Lines
3. We Can't Stop
4. Berzerk
5. Applause

That will be most likely how it is, no?

[The Upper Hand]

Aug 30, 2013 23:19:17 GMT -5 DJ General said:

1. Roar
2. Blurred Lines
3. We Can't Stop
4. Berzerk
5. Applause

That will be most likely how it is, no?

I guess the dispute between "Roar" and "Blurred Lines" will be even tighter than the first week race.

[markb]

Predictions for Billboard hot 100 #1 Next week(9/14)
ROAR:
(92,000,000/7,500) + (445,000/12) + (5,700,000/450) = 62.017!
BL:
(210,000,000/7,500) + (240,000/12) + (5,800,000/450) = 60.889!
I Think we have new #1!!! finally :)

[#Joseph.T]

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 271.625 (- 1.118)
2. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 149.730 (- 0.874)
3. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 132.338 (- 2.559)
4. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 131.574 (- 1.746)
5. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 125.389 (+ 0.495) ▲
6. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 124.531 (- 2.216) ▼
7. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 110.959 (- 1.912)
8. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 109.975 (+ 2.221) ▲
9. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 109.318 (- 1.517) ▼
10. KATY PERRY – Roar: 105.980 (+ 2.839)
11. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 98.015 (- 0.886)
12. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 92.978 (+ 0.538) ▲
13. LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 92.834 (+ 0.636) ▲
14. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 92.462 (- 0.171) ▼
15. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 75.520 (- 0.199)
16. MILEY CYRUS – We Can’t Stop: 68.252 (+ 0.440)
17. KEITH URBAN – Little Bit Of Everything: 66.981 (+ 0.579)
18. DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 65.153 (+ 2.208) ▲
19. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Can’t Hold Us f/Ray Dalton: 65.146 (- 0.571)
20. PINK – Just Give Me A Reason: 64.655 (- 0.678)

JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Take Back The Night: 63.540 (- 0.066)
JASON DERULO – The Other Side: 63.346 (- 2.649)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Round Here: 61.613 (+ 0.414)
J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 58.055 (+ 0.258)
EASTON CORBIN – All Over The Road: 57.656 (+ 0.209)
AVICII – Wake Me Up: 56.170 (+ 1.713)
LORDE – Royals: 54.882 (+ 2.384)
JUSTIN MOORE – Point At You: 53.887 (+ 0.154)
LADY GAGA – Applause: 49.458 (+ 0.539)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 38.646 (+ 0.412)
KENNY CHESNEY – When I See This Bar: 37.292 (+ 0.436)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 35.181 (+ 0.127)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 30.175 (+ 0.940)
ONE DIRECTION – Best Song Ever: 29.138 (+ 0.324)
CHRIS BROWN – Love More f/Nicki Minaj: 28.212 (- 0.166)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS – Turn The Night Up: 24.618 (- 0.210)
ROBIN THICKE – Give It 2 U f/Kendrick Lamar: 22.651 (+ 0.954)
EMINEM – Berzerk: 19.340 (+ 3.434)
IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 16.584 (+ 0.041)
FLO RIDA – Can’t Believe It f/Pitbull: 14.616 (- 0.222)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 12.191 (+ 0.294)
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 9.595 (+ 0.699)
TEGAN & SARA – Closer: 7.857 (+ 0.221)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 7.531 (+ 0.025)
DAFT PUNK – Lose Yourself To Dance: 3.267
CHRISTINA AGUILERA – Let There Be Love: 0.010

[jayhawk1117]

Aug 30, 2013 23:19:17 GMT -5 DJ General said:

1. Roar
2. Blurred Lines
3. We Can't Stop
4. Berzerk
5. Applause

That will be most likely how it is, no?

I dont think beserk will be that high, it will be top ten because of airplay

[Kris]

Roar 2 weeks at #1 on the Canadian Hot 100, Americans are a bit slow to decide what the better song is ;)

[Deleted]

Aug 31, 2013 10:11:11 GMT -5 Kris said:

Roar 2 weeks at #1 on the Canadian Hot 100, Americans are a bit slow to decide what the better song is ;)

But Canadians kept Blurred Lines at #1 longer and earlier than Americans did which tells me Canadians liked the song ;)

[brady47]

Aug 31, 2013 10:11:11 GMT -5 Kris said:

Roar 2 weeks at #1 on the Canadian Hot 100, Americans are a bit slow to decide what the better song is ;)

It's interesting to see how different the tastes are of Canadians & Americans. Like Wide Awake hitting #1 in Canada, but Teenage Dream only hitting #2, and that was reversed in US.

[brady47]

Is We Can't Stop going to have the longevity of Party in the USA or even The Climb? I don't think it will, even though WCS is matching PITU chart run in the top 3.

[HolidayGuy]

In the long run (i.e. beyond Hot 100 runs), "Party in the USA" and "The Climb" probably will endure better than "We Can't Stop."

[imbondz]

Aug 31, 2013 10:36:32 GMT -5 brady47 said:

Aug 31, 2013 10:11:11 GMT -5 Kris said:

Roar 2 weeks at #1 on the Canadian Hot 100, Americans are a bit slow to decide what the better song is ;)

It's interesting to see how different the tastes are of Canadians & Americans. Like Wide Awake hitting #1 in Canada, but Teenage Dream only hitting #2, and that was reversed in US.

A #1 vs #2 could just be timing. I don't think that differentiates Canadian taste from ours.

If Teenage Dream didnt make the top 10 there then maybe that'd be a different taste. But 1 vs 2 is 6 of 1.

[areyoureadytojump]

Aug 30, 2013 14:42:39 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

^That's info fore the 9/7 charts.

Billboard is previewing the 9/14 chart, though:

www.billboard.com/articles/news/5679974/robin-thicke-or-katy-perry-wholl-be-no-1-on-next-weeks-hot-100

Robin Thicke or Katy Perry -- Who'll Be No. 1 on Next Week's Hot 100?
By Gary Trust, New York | August 30, 2013

We're in for another fight for No. 1 atop next week's Billboard Hot 100.

Thanks to expected sales spikes due to the MTV Video Music Awards, Robin Thicke and Katy Perry look to be neck-and-neck in the latest projections for the chart's top spot, to be revealed on Billboard.com next Wednesday (Sept. 4). This week, Thicke's "Blurred Lines" (featuring T.I. and Pharrell) spends a 12th week at the summit, fending off Katy Perry's "Roar," which holds at No. 2.

Meanwhile, Eminem is due to blast in with his new single "Berzerk," while Lady Gaga and Miley Cyrus should also see post-VMA increases.

PROJECTING SALES

According to industry sources, "Roar" could sell 450,000-475,000 downloads for the tracking week ending Sunday (Sept. 1). She performed the song to close out the VMAs last Sunday (Aug. 25).

"Lines" is projected to sell 225,000-250,000 following Thicke's much-buzzed-about performance of it at the VMAs with Miley Cyrus in a medley with her "We Can't Stop." Her hit, which currently ranks at No. 3 on the Hot 100, could sell 150,000 by the end of the tracking week. (Her new single "Wrecking Ball," which enters the Hot 100 at No. 50 this week with 90,000 sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan, is projected to jump to 190,000-200,000.)

The VMAs opening number, Lady Gaga's "Applause," at No. 4 on the Hot 100 this week, is forecast to sell 200,000-225,000.

The other song headed for a high sales start is Eminem's "Berzerk," which should start with a lofty 350,000-375,000. The song previews Eminem's new album, which was teased in a commercial during the VMAs; "The Marshall Mathers LP 2," a sequel to his 2000 album "The Marshall Mathers LP" (which has sold 10.7 million copies in the U.S., according to SoundScan) is due Nov. 5.

NEXT WEEK'S HOT 100

What do all these numbers mean for next week's Hot 100?

Presently, it's too early to tell whether Thicke will add a lucky 13th week at No. 1 with "Lines" or Perry will notch her eighth Hot 100 leader with "Roar." The race simply looks that close.

Combining the sales projections above and taking building Nielsen BDS data for airplay and streaming (the components which join sales to form the Hot 100's three measurement metrics) and projecting it over a full week, the songs are in extremely close proximity. (On the current Hot 100, "Lines" leads "Roar" by 13% in overall points. Last week, "Lines" sported just a 3% advantage.)

"Lines" should still lead the Radio Songs airplay chart next week, although it's declining in points, while "Roar" should pounce into the top 10. Both songs are projected to gain in streaming, with their streaming sums potentially not far apart once a full week of data is compiled.

Meanwhile, Eminem, with the expected high sales for "Berzerk," along with early airplay and streaming (it ranks just below the 75- and 50-position thresholds for Radio Songs and Streaming Songs, respectively, on each building chart as of this posting) appears likely to debut in the Hot 100's top five, jockeying for position with Cyrus and Lady Gaga in the region.

Check Billboard.com on Wednesday (Sept. 4) for all the songs' official figures and to find out who claims the Hot 100's coveted crown. The refreshed Hot 100 will appear in full on Billboard.com next Thursday (Sept. 5) and in next week's issue of Billboard magazine.

Did you read the article?

There are estimates in the article for the 9/14 chart.

[areyoureadytojump]

www.billboard.com/biz/articles/news/5679970/eminems-berzerk-selling-strong-heading-for-big-debut

Eminem's 'Berzerk' Selling Strong, Heading for Big Debut
By Keith Caulfield, Los Angeles | August 30, 2013 3:00 PM EDT

Eminem's new single "Berzerk" is selling like crazy.

Industry sources forecast that the hip-hop star's new single may sell upwards of 350,000 to 375,000 downloads by the end of the tracking week on Sunday, Sept. 1.

That should guarantee a high entry on both the Digital Songs chart and the Billboard Hot 100 chart next week. The latter list's top 10 will be revealed on Wednesday, Sept. 4.

"Berzerk's" sales are about on par with with the first-week of his last album's first single, "Not Afraid." That 2010 song bowed at No. 1 on the Digital Songs chart with 379,000 according to Nielsen SoundScan. The single led the album "Recovery," which later bowed at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 chart -- his sixth No. 1 album.

"Berzerk" is the first single from "The Marshall Mathers LP 2" album, due out on Nov. 5.

[areyoureadytojump]

www.billboard.com/biz/articles/news/5679980/vmas-set-to-rock-digital-songs-chart-performed-songs-up-by-20-35

VMAs Set to Rock Digital Songs Chart, Performed Songs Up by 20-35%
By Keith Caulfield, Los Angeles | August 30, 2013

The MTV Video Music Awards (VMAs) may be over, but the Aug. 25 show continues to impact the iTunes Store and other digital retailers.

Industry sources are forecasting digital download gains (in the week ending Sept. 1) for nearly all of the songs performed on the broadcast.
Register today for Billboard's 2013 Film & TV Music conference in Los Angeles Oct. 29-30 at the W Hollywood Use promo code 'BIZ13' to get a special discount.

The biggest winner -- in terms of total units -- will likely be Katy Perry's "Roar." It should easily spend a third week at No. 1 on Billboard's Digital Songs chart, as it is set to sell around 450,000 to 475,000 -- a gain of around 15% to 20% for the week. In the week ending Aug. 25, it sold 392,000, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

Here are the forecasts for all of the songs performed on the VMAs, except for Justin Timberlake's massive 12-song medley. Of the songs he performed on the show, the biggest seller looks to be "Mirrors," which is headed for a 70,000 sales week (up 60%). Collectively, the below songs might earn between a 20% and 35% lift for the week.

The new week's official SoundScan sales figures will be released on Wednesday, Sept. 4.

Artist, Song - Forecast (% Gain/Decrease)

Katy Perry, "Roar" - 450,000-475,000 (up 15%-20%)

Robin Thicke, "Blurred Lines" - 225,000-250,000 (down 1-10%)

Lady Gaga, "Applause" - 200,000-225,000 (up 20%-40%)

Miley Cyrus, "We Can't Stop" - 150,000 (up 5%)

Drake, "Hold On, We're Going Home" - 125,000-150,000 (up 35%-70%)

Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, featuring Mary Lambert, "Same Love" - 100,000-110,000 (up 10%-25%)

Robin Thicke, "Give It 2 U" - 75,000-100,000 (up 210%-320%)

Justin Timberlake, "Mirrors" - 70,000 (up 60%)

Bruno Mars, "Gorilla" - 55,000-60,000 (up 175%-200%)

Kanye West, "Blood On the Leaves" - 25,000-50,000 (up 150%-400%)

Drake, "Started From the Bottom" - 25,000-50,000 (up 20%-140%)

[Deleted]

Mirrors getting a bigger boost than Take Back The Night... Why is he still trying that song?

[stanr]

Aug 31, 2013 7:34:09 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Aug 30, 2013 23:19:17 GMT -5 DJ General said:

1. Roar
2. Blurred Lines
3. We Can't Stop
4. Berzerk
5. Applause

That will be most likely how it is, no?

I dont think beserk will be that high, it will be top ten because of airplay

I think Eminem could debut at #3.

1. Roar
2. Blurred Lines
3. Berzerk
4. Applause
5. We Can't Stop

[HolidayGuy]

areryouready- I believe the only projection for week ending 9/1 in that particular article was for "Wrecking Ball"- all other figures were for the 9/7 chart. Not a big deal, though, was just pointing out. :)

[Kris]

Aug 31, 2013 10:16:36 GMT -5 @2m said:

Aug 31, 2013 10:11:11 GMT -5 Kris said:

Roar 2 weeks at #1 on the Canadian Hot 100, Americans are a bit slow to decide what the better song is ;)

But Canadians kept Blurred Lines at #1 longer and earlier than Americans did which tells me Canadians liked the song ;)

yes but Roar wasn't available for those weeks ;) 

[DJ General]

Aug 31, 2013 7:34:09 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Aug 30, 2013 23:19:17 GMT -5 DJ General said:

1. Roar
2. Blurred Lines
3. We Can't Stop
4. Berzerk
5. Applause

That will be most likely how it is, no?

I dont think beserk will be that high, it will be top ten because of airplay

There's no way it isn't top 5. It's selling upwards of 400,000 digital copies plus airplay/streaming

[Glove Slap]

Aug 31, 2013 10:42:53 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

In the long run (i.e. beyond Hot 100 runs), "Party in the USA" and "The Climb" probably will endure better than "We Can't Stop."

The Climb has endured? I haven't heard it nor seen anyone make any reference to it since 2009. PITU is a whole another story of course.

[Deleted]

I agree, especially as she is developing a new audience. The Climb is from a different era directed to a different audience.

[#Joseph.T]

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 267.499 (- 4.126) :o
2. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 148.780 (- 0.950)
3. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 130.731 (- 0.843) ▲
4. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 129.357 (- 2.981) ▼
5. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 125.740 (+ 0.351)
6. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 121.654 (- 2.877)
7. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 111.448 (+ 1.473) ▲
8. KATY PERRY – Roar: 108.847 (+ 2.867) ▲
9. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 108.465 (- 2.494) ▼
10. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 107.431 (- 1.887) ▼
11. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 97.270 (- 0.745)
12. LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 93.274 (+ 0.440) ▲
13. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 92.184 (- 0.794) ▼
14. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 91.186 (- 1.276)
15. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 74.897 (- 0.623)
16. MILEY CYRUS – We Can’t Stop: 68.471 (+ 0.219)
17. DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 68.230 (+ 3.077) ▲
18. KEITH URBAN – Little Bit Of Everything: 66.875 (- 0.106) ▼
19. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Can’t Hold Us f/Ray Dalton: 63.495 (- 1.651)
20. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Take Back The Night: 62.706 (- 0.834) ▲

PINK – Just Give Me A Reason: 62.695 (- 1.960)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Round Here: 61.909 (+ 0.296)
AVICII – Wake Me Up: 58.625 (+ 2.455)
EASTON CORBIN – All Over The Road: 58.025 (+ 0.369)
J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 57.904 (- 0.151)
LORDE – Royals: 57.426 (+ 2.544)
JUSTIN MOORE – Point At You: 53.978 (+ 0.091)
LADY GAGA – Applause: 49.361 (- 0.097)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 38.817 (+ 0.171)
KENNY CHESNEY – When I See This Bar: 36.901 (- 0.391)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 35.202 (+ 0.021)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 31.333 (+ 1.158)
ONE DIRECTION – Best Song Ever: 29.238 (+ 0.100)
CHRIS BROWN – Love More f/Nicki Minaj: 28.544 (+ 0.332)
ROBIN THICKE – Give It 2 U f/Kendrick Lamar: 23.374 (+ 0.723)
EMINEM – Berzerk: 23.172 (+ 3.832)
IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 16.616 (+ 0.032)
FLO RIDA – Can’t Believe It f/Pitbull: 14.612 (- 0.004)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 12.650 (+ 0.459)
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 10.569 (+ 0.974)
TEGAN & SARA – Closer: 8.438 (+ 0.581)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 7.219 (- 0.312)
FIFTH HARMONY – Miss Movin’ On: 6.516
MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 0.895
BRUNO MARS – Gorilla: 0.595

[Keelzit]

Sept 1, 2013 7:00:24 GMT -5 #Joseph.T said:

LADY GAGA – Applause: 49.361 (- 0.097)

[HolidayGuy]

I don't know how airplay is for "The Climb," but I suspect it gets at least some play on AC stations? Nonetheless, I think "The Climb" will enjoy a better overall recurrent life than "We Can't Stop." Plus, "The Climb" is one of those songs that probably will be performed on singing competitions for years to come.

Is that daily dip for "Blurred Lines" temporary, or will it now start sliding down rapidly?

[Glove Slap]

Sept 1, 2013 7:00:24 GMT -5 #Joseph.T said:

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 267.499 (- 4.126) :o
8. KATY PERRY – Roar: 108.847 (+ 2.867) ▲

It's seriously looking like this may be the week!

The big fall for BL is the same reason for the massive gains it was experiencing when it was climbing. Because it climbed and peaked at so many formats at once, it is expected to fall from them at the same time, so even if it has small decreases at each individual format, it adds up. He's still obliterating all competition radio wise and will for a while though.

[SPRΞΞ]

Fuck yea Katy!! Here we go!!

[Rocky]

Sept 1, 2013 7:10:10 GMT -5 Glove Slap said:

Sept 1, 2013 7:00:24 GMT -5 #Joseph.T said:

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 267.499 (- 4.126) :o
8. KATY PERRY – Roar: 108.847 (+ 2.867) ▲

It's seriously looking like this may be the week!

The big fall for BL is the same reason for the massive gains it was experiencing when it was climbing. Because it climbed and peaked at so many formats at once, it is expected to fall from them at the same time, so even if it has small decreases at each individual format, it adds up. He's still obliterating all competition radio wise and will for a while though.

You're right, the exact same thing is happening what we were predicting before its peak. I'd also add that some songs peaking at the 190-205 million AI range in the past few years fell at the same pace after peaking. It should drop by 4M+ or 5M+ AI constantly to be unprecedented fall. "When I Was Your Man" dropped at nearly the same speed despite not being that big multi-format smash.
I think "Roar" still needs around 40 days to take over.

[jayhawk1117]

Aug 31, 2013 18:08:25 GMT -5 DJ General said:

Aug 31, 2013 7:34:09 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

I dont think beserk will be that high, it will be top ten because of airplay

There's no way it isn't top 5. It's selling upwards of 400,000 digital copies plus airplay/streaming

I hadnt read the article with predicted sales, but even though billboard is 99% of the time wrong it still sells close to the estimate, so the real estimate should be 350k-385k. So the top 5 is likely, probably number 4/5.