trebor
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Post by trebor on Sept 13, 2014 7:14:45 GMT -5
jhomes87 You stand correct (as always..) It is clear that the Billboard "Year" is not in sync with the calendar year. Also, the first two print dates are from past year's data. Have never bothered to over-analyse the myriad of Billboard's year end tallies; Billboard can twist and turn everything until it is to the industry's liking. Have studied the fine print and indeed only the charting (published) weeks are counting towards year end tallies. This what it says: "Sales or airplay that registered before or after a title's chart run aren't considered in these standings" "Ranking for year-end airplay charts are based on accumulated BDS-monitored plays or audience impressions, depending on each list's weekly methodology, for each week a song appeared on the chart" My sincere apologies to all readers and to the posters who may have been correct with their forecast and questioning. Will repent and B1llb04rd s*cks big time
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2014 7:25:07 GMT -5
I like the fact that Billboard doesn't include recurrent airplay, because that benefits songs released at the beginning of the chart year. Songs released in the first 3-4 months of the year have a much bigger advantage. For my own personal year-end charts, I assign each song to a single calendar year (something I picked up from Zazie). So in December when I tabulate my 2014 year-end lists (based on Billboard's charts), if a song peaked prior to November 30, 2013, or is still climbing after December 1, 2014, then it won't be included. But if a song was released in August 2013 and peaked in February, I would assign ALL of its weeks to the 2014 chart year. Anything still climbing as we head into December would be counted as a 2015 song. In my opinion, that's the fairest way to do it.
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trebor
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Rock this quiet, little country town
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Post by trebor on Sept 16, 2014 0:34:54 GMT -5
Thank you for your insight. This is some kind of dilemma. Your approach of shifting the peaks into their respective years sounds good to me. Thanks for that. :) However, still stunned that Billboard doesn't count all data.
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dajross6
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Post by dajross6 on Sept 16, 2014 1:20:58 GMT -5
Billboard has used the same process as long as I can remember...at least since 1995.
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trebor
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Rock this quiet, little country town
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Post by trebor on Sept 25, 2014 10:38:46 GMT -5
^ dajross6 Thanks for that. Sorry that your reply went unnoticed. New topic: Moves into the Top 10 of the "Mongrel" chart [Hot Country Song] in its 42nd week of snail like ascent. This must be the most controversial record that would not fade without a fight. ;)
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Post by josephmorgan on Oct 7, 2014 0:52:17 GMT -5
Now, in it's 47th week, the song that won't die is top 5. Do you think it will spend an entire year on the chart, and will it or won't it go #1?
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Oct 7, 2014 1:22:13 GMT -5
It's in pretty good shape for #1 now, or at least #2. Luke will fall after this week, Dirt will get a week, and then the real test will come when Jason gets to #1. He's got a decent lead on Chase, so it'll just depend whether Chase can wait out the 3-4 weeks to out peak Burnin' It Down.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2014 8:13:28 GMT -5
It's in pretty good shape for #1 now, or at least #2. Luke will fall after this week, Dirt will get a week, and then the real test will come when Jason gets to #1. He's got a decent lead on Chase, so it'll just depend whether Chase can wait out the 3-4 weeks to out peak Burnin' It Down. I don't know, I think #5 might be as high as this one gets. Chase just barely got the #5 spot on last night's Billboard chart--he finished with 36.652 million, while Sam Hunt finished with 36.622 million, and Blake Shelton is at 35.8 million. Now today on Mediabase we have Chase still gaining (a modest +439k), but Sam Hunt gained 1.34 million this morning (!!!) and his bullet is now at a staggering 1041. "Neon Light" gained over 1 million this morning as well, and "Somethin' Bad" topped them all by gaining 1.4 million. Chase will no doubt move ahead of Cole Swindell this week, but I expect both Sam and Blake to pass him, and it remains to be seen just how high "Somethin' Bad" will climb now that "Something In The Water" is out. Luke is still climbing, FGL and Jason are still climbing...I just don't see how Chase is going to be able to wait out all of these songs. "Ready Set Roll" is more than 1300 spins behind Jason for #3, and I think this one is going to run out of gas soon.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Oct 7, 2014 8:22:07 GMT -5
A platinum (where it'll eventually will end digitally) Top 5 debut? Not bad. Especially for a single may wrote off months ago as "toast" or "dead in the water".
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Oct 7, 2014 8:26:59 GMT -5
It's in pretty good shape for #1 now, or at least #2. Luke will fall after this week, Dirt will get a week, and then the real test will come when Jason gets to #1. He's got a decent lead on Chase, so it'll just depend whether Chase can wait out the 3-4 weeks to out peak Burnin' It Down. I don't know, I think #5 might be as high as this one gets. Chase just barely got the #5 spot on last night's Billboard chart--he finished with 36.652 million, while Sam Hunt finished with 36.622 million, and Blake Shelton is at 35.8 million. Now today on Mediabase we have Chase still gaining (a modest +439k), but Sam Hunt gained 1.34 million this morning (!!!) and his bullet is now at a staggering 1041. "Neon Light" gained over 1 million this morning as well, and "Somethin' Bad" topped them all by gaining 1.4 million. Chase will no doubt move ahead of Cole Swindell this week, but I expect both Sam and Blake to pass him, and it remains to be seen just how high "Somethin' Bad" will climb now that "Something In The Water" is out. Luke is still climbing, FGL and Jason are still climbing...I just don't see how Chase is going to be able to wait out all of these songs. "Ready Set Roll" is more than 1300 spins behind Jason for #3, and I think this one is going to run out of gas soon. I forgot about the songs below it. Sam Hunt has been on fire lately. I'll just say this, anytime I've thought this song could be done, it's surprises and keeps on going. Chase really is invested into getting this single as high up as he can.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2014 8:27:24 GMT -5
A platinum (where it'll eventually will end digitally) Top 5 debut? Not bad. Especially for a single may wrote off months ago as "toast" or "dead in the water". I actually liked this song (despite the arcade beginning) when I would hear it on the radio...that was last Christmas. Almost a year later, I'm just wondering why I'm hearing this song and not "Like a Cowboy," "What We Ain't Got," "Perfect Storm," "Drinking Class," "Hard to be Cool," etc (far superior songs, in my opinion). Why are people still buying this on iTunes? For a while I thought maybe I didn't understand country radio but now I think I just don't understand radio listeners. Admittedly, Chase has much better songs on Ignite the Night and I'm looking forward to his next single (PLEASE, not Ride).
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carriekins
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Post by carriekins on Oct 7, 2014 8:29:08 GMT -5
His next single is widely regarded to be Gonna Wanna Tonight @nickv1025.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Oct 7, 2014 11:09:38 GMT -5
A platinum (where it'll eventually will end digitally) Top 5 debut? Not bad. Especially for a single may wrote off months ago as "toast" or "dead in the water". Who said this single was "toast" or "dead in the water"? After he was able to hook on with Columbia to promote this, I personally didn't hear anybody writing this song off. I myself wanted this song to die a horrible painful death, but I knew this song was going to push the restart button once he reached that deal with Columbia, and that's why this song has lasted so long. Perhaps some wrote this off when it was still being promoted via RPM including myself. His major label affiliation is what kept this song going.
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jferstler
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Post by jferstler on Oct 7, 2014 12:07:26 GMT -5
I think it's possible Jack Daniels And Jesus gets released as the follow up.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Oct 7, 2014 22:55:50 GMT -5
I think it's possible Jack Daniels And Jesus gets released as the follow up. Not. Gonna. Happen. It's too slow and moody for radio. To say nothing of mentioning alcohol and Jesus together....
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Oct 8, 2014 2:05:31 GMT -5
Billboard disregardsrecurrent airplay when doing their year-end tabulations as opposed to Mediabase, which explains why they've only agreed on the year's #1 single FOUR times in the past fourteen years, most recently with 'Just Got Started Lovin' You' in 2008.
Neither trade has ever utilized the calendar year when they tabulate their year-end results; the 2014 Mediabase chart year will end at midnight (PST) on November 15th.
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Kat5Kind
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Post by Kat5Kind on Oct 8, 2014 7:11:29 GMT -5
I think it's possible Jack Daniels And Jesus gets released as the follow up. I hope so! It's one of the best songs on this album!
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Oct 8, 2014 10:14:47 GMT -5
Billboard disregardsrecurrent airplay when doing their year-end tabulations as opposed to Mediabase, which explains why they've only agreed on the year's #1 single FOUR times in the past fourteen years, most recently with 'Just Got Started Lovin' You' in 2008. Neither trade has ever utilized the calendar year when they tabulate their year-end results; the 2014 Mediabase chart year will end at midnight (PST) on November 15th.The trades want to release their data for the year by New Year's Day or they feel they're already be outdated -- they need a couple of weeks to put everything together, and nobody's going to be interested (they think) if they release the lists in mid-January. So they define their calendar a little differently from the rest of us. That's just what they need as a profit-seeking business doing what makes commercial sense. And they don't really care about the true popularity of a song -- that's for fans and chart followers -- so they don't do what Jhomes does and assign all the spins of a song to one year or the other. They have to have a year-end list but it doesn't have to be accurate. We'll mind but most of the industry professionals won't care. Just a note -- if you read the year-end list as it is developing on AllAccess, don't forget to add in December airplay if you're trying to project year-end rankings. The order right now is Beat Of The Music, When She Says Baby, Lettin' The Night Roll, and Drink To That All Night. But by the time the final numbers are tabulated, including remaining recurrent airplay and December airplay not yet included, I suspect Niemann's song will inch ahead of Moore's and claim the #3 position. Although I'll prefer JHomes' list over what the trades say. She does this right.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2014 19:11:01 GMT -5
Although I'll prefer JHomes' list over what the trades say. She does this right. Hey, I certainly can't take credit for coming up with the points-based year-end list. I'm only implementing what I learned from you! :) I'd never really thought much about compiling year-end lists before, but I loved the ones you did, and I definitely prefer the points-based method and applying all of those points to one year rather than splitting them up into multiple years. I'm behind on tabulating points so far for 2014, but I'm definitely going to try to have a points-based year-end list ready sometime in December.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Oct 9, 2014 17:03:31 GMT -5
With 5-plus weeks to go in the Mediabase chart year, here's a peek at the current top 15, with YTD spins as of Sunday, October 5th; keep in mind that the 2014 chart year began on November 17th and will end on November 15th.
Beat Of The Music---160,993 When She Says Baby---160,306 Lettin' The Night Roll---149,341 Drink To That All Night---148,811 Goodnight Kiss---143,520 Get Me Some Of That---143,192 Compass---129,950 Bottoms Up---129,674 We've Got Tonight---128,224 I Hold On---127,504
Play It Again---126,523 Whiskey In My Water---125,556 Give Me Back My Hometown---124,329 Rewind---124,220 Doin' What She Likes---121,982
Notes...
'Automatic' passed 'Doin' What She Likes' earlier this week and should stay there, although 'This Is How We Roll' will pass both of them this week or next week. 'Goodnight Kiss' will slide down a couple of notches but should still finish in the year-end top 10. 'Bottoms Up' will pass 'Compass' this week and figures to pull away slowly.
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dajross6
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Post by dajross6 on Oct 13, 2014 1:34:20 GMT -5
Wow, I guess I'm cheering for Beat of the Music to hold on then. What an awful year for the genre. I like how Mediabase labels "This Is How We Roll" on the year-end chart feat. Jason DeRulo /sarcasm
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Oct 13, 2014 23:09:47 GMT -5
I think this is finally gone as high as it's going to, but it's really hard to say with this one. Getting passed by both Sam Hunt and Blake Shelton seems to be a dealbreaker this far into its run though. Chances are it will move back up to #5 next week, passing Luke Bryan, but beyond that I don't see it getting any higher.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Oct 13, 2014 23:19:18 GMT -5
I saw also that "Gonna Wanna Tonight" is starting to get some spins at a few stations, so it seems like radio, or at least some PD's, are ready to start playing something new from Chase. Hard to believe any song can chart for a whole freaking year.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Oct 13, 2014 23:47:50 GMT -5
I saw also that "Gonna Wanna Tonight" is starting to get some spins at a few stations, so it seems like radio, or at least some PD's, are ready to start playing something new from Chase. Hard to believe any song can chart for a whole freaking year."Never let your prayin' knees get lazy, and love like crazy". ;)
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trebor
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Rock this quiet, little country town
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Post by trebor on Oct 23, 2014 16:10:36 GMT -5
(Sorry for giving this a bump) It appears that Billboard has granted Chase Rice a grace week since he remains outside the Hot 100 Top 50 in its 21st week! I do not believe that the bullet this week explains it not to be moved to recurrent status. It is not a building song and will never make the upper half of the chart. Or it is yet another Billboard mistake?
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Oct 23, 2014 16:18:16 GMT -5
(Sorry for giving this a bump) It appears that Billboard has granted Chase Rice a grace week since he remains outside the Hot 100 Top 50 in its 21st week! I do not believe that the bullet this week explains it not to be moved to recurrent status. It is not a building song and will never make the upper half of the chart. Or it is yet another Billboard mistake? If you're referring to this still being on the Hot 100, then that chart doesn't work like this. A song has to fall down the Hot 100 -- it can't be yanked off just because it's "over" at radio.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Oct 23, 2014 16:35:51 GMT -5
For the benefit of our forum newcomers, he recurrent rules cited on this board only refer to the country charts @ Billboard & Country Aircheck/Mediabase, and that's been the case for as long as this board and its predecessors have been in existence.
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dajross6
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Post by dajross6 on Oct 27, 2014 10:47:56 GMT -5
Speaking specifically on the Hot 100, if it's Chase's 21st week and he's unbulleted below #50, he should be removed. If he doesn't have the bullet, but was extremely close, I could see a grace week being given, but that's usually only done on Airplay charts.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Oct 27, 2014 16:57:47 GMT -5
Speaking specifically on the Hot 100, if it's Chase's 21st week and he's unbulleted below #50, he should be removed. If he doesn't have the bullet, but was extremely close, I could see a grace week being given, but that's usually only done on Airplay charts. They don't do that on the Hot 100 though. Some songs linger on the Hot 100 for a long, long time after they're "done" at radio because there's no way to be sent recurrent there.
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dajross6
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Post by dajross6 on Oct 27, 2014 20:43:53 GMT -5
Nah, the Hot 100 has a very strict recurrent policy, but has nothing to do with radio. It's based only on points, so recurrent airplay, streaming, single sales, etc. can really let a song linger forever. Earlier this year "Radioactive" went over 80 weeks before dropping below #50 finally. That cutoff is VERY firm. I just checked the latest Hot 100 and Chase retained his bullet despite dropping a few spots, so it's not eligible for recurrent status until his points drop a week.
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