Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Deleted]

Nov 30, 2014 11:02:17 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Wonder how high Love Me Harder will score this year. I don't think Take Me To Church, Animals or Habits will rank very high this year.

You're probably right about the others, but I can assure you Take Me To Church will. It has reached #3 this first week of 2015 charts and it is still in the process of climbing. I can see it staying in the top 3 for quite a few more weeks and in the top 10 much longer. Alternative crossovers (STIUTK, We Are Young, Radioactive, Habits, Demons, Some Nights, Hey Soul Sister, etc) have almost always had outstanding longevity. All of the songs I just mentioned in brackets, with the exception of incredibly fast jumper WAY and mid-2014 debut Habits, were on the chart for more than a year. I can definitely see TMTC being on the chart for almost, if not more than, a year and in the top 10 year-end of 2015.

[Dylan :)]

Earworm has posted a picture of his year end. I see Say Something, Dark Horse, Pompeii, Fancy, Problem, Shake It Off, Am I Wrong, All Of Me, Timber and I think Animals. I think Happy is "05 Instrumental", and "06 Instrumental" is Team

Where can I view the 2013 predictions? @markg94

[Deleted]

Dec 1, 2014 20:16:49 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Where can I view the 2013 predictions? @markg94

That would probably be a question better suited for Daniel since he's the one that did them

[Daniel Collins]

Dec 2, 2014 9:37:33 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Dec 1, 2014 20:16:49 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Where can I view the 2013 predictions? @markg94

That would probably be a question better suited for Daniel since he's the one that did them

pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/135323/billboard-2013-full-year-predictions

[Dylan :)]

Thanks ^^ Cool to see how close/far people were :)

When will the 2015 chart start?

[Deleted]

Dec 2, 2014 11:50:09 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

When will the 2015 chart start?

It has actually already started as of the 12/6/2014 chart. Daniel still needs to figure out the new weighting of the three chart components as streaming weight has been lessened and sales weight has been increased which is probably why he hasn't started posting 2015 running total predictions yet

[Dylan :)]

Dec 2, 2014 13:41:15 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Dec 2, 2014 11:50:09 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

When will the 2015 chart start?

It has actually already started as of the 12/6/2014 chart. Daniel still needs to figure out the new weighting of the three chart components as streaming weight has been lessened and sales weight has been increased which is probably why he hasn't started posting 2015 running total predictions yet

Ah, I meant when would Daniel be starting, so thanks for the explanation! There must be a decent change going off the drop of Hot Boy last week. I guess Blank Space is somewhat lucky and unlucky in the week the video was released.

For anyone interested, here is another year end mashup which I think may have based somewhat off Daniel.

[when the pawn...]

When should we expect Billboard to publish end-of-year charts?

[Deleted]

What I heard/saw in Earworm's mashup:

All of the top 20 except for Counting Stars and The Monster (funny, Pompeii was in the 2013 summer mash xD)

Story of My Life
Black Widow
Bang Bang
Habits (Stay High)
Animals
Don't Tell 'Em
Take Me To Church
Blank Space (why the hell did he use this one and TMTC when it's so obvious they will be high on the 2015 year-end chart so he could use them then and considering that it was popular in 2014 for like 2 weeks ugh this guy frustrates me so much he should've just used Don't and Chandelier instead)

[Kris]

^ Glad You Came was in the 2011 summer mash I believe then made it top 10 for the 2012 year end, funny how long it takes those hits to land over here.

Also:


A Great Big World feat. Christina Aguilera - Say Something
Ariana Grande feat. Iggy Azalea - Problem
Bastille - Pompeii
Dj Snake & Lil Jon - Turn Down For What
Hozier - Take Me to Church
Idina Menzel - Let It Go
Iggy Azalea feat. Charli XCX - Fancy
Iggy Azalea feat. Rita Ora - Black Widow
Jason Derulo feat. 2 Chainz - Talk Dirty
Jeremih feat. YG - Don't Tell 'Em
Jessie J feat. Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj - Bang Bang
John Legend - All Of Me
Katy Perry feat. Juicy J - Dark Horse
Lorde - Team
Magic! - Rude
Maroon 5 - Animals
Meghan Trainor - All About That Bass
Nico & Vinz - Am I Wrong
One Direction - Story of My Life
Passenger - Let Her Go
Pharrell Williams - Happy
Pitbull feat. Ke$ha - Timber
Sam Smith - stay with me
Taylor Swift - Shake It Off
Tove Lo - Habits

He didn't use Blank Space (unless he just threw in a tidbit of it but didn't include it in the description), but it is weird that he used TMTC, kind of like CS last year. 

[bobpiecheese]

Dec 3, 2014 13:01:24 GMT -5 Kris said:

but it is weird that he used TMTC, kind of like CS last year. 

I'd say TMTC is more analagous to The Monster, as Counting Stars still hit the Billboard Year-End list, whereas The Monster didn't. I guess we'll see next Thursday (Friday for Australians like me...stupid timezones).

I'm more surprised Story of my Life made it through. Though maybe that's just me having a sad that Don't Tell 'Em did but Chandelier didn't. Oh well, at least Anaconda and Wiggle didn't make it.

[Daniel Collins]

For 2015
Stream:Sales:Airplay

a.) 925:12:9875
b.) 775:10:9875

I'm still not sure what formula to use. I'm not sure if streaming is the only adjusted component.

Billboard reported "The Hanging Tree" with 88% sales and 12% streaming.

SPOILER: Click to show

{WARNING: So much math in here}Sales: 200k/12 = 16,666.66
Stream: 2.1k/? = 2,273 (to satisfy the 88:12 ratio)

? = 925

If I use 10 as the sales divider , the streaming divider would be 775

Airplay:
Using "Blank Space"'s stats for 12/6 and 12/13,
Date - Stream:Sales:Airplay
12/6 - 14.2M:302k: 89M
12/13 - 14.2M:342k:112M

14.2M/775 + 302k/10 + 89M/(?) = Total(12/6)
14.2M/775 + 342k/10 + 112M/(?) = Total(12/13)

12/13 Total is 11% above the 12/6 Total

14.2M/775 + 342k/10 + 112M/(?) = 1.11[14.2M/775 + 302k/10 + 89m/(?)]
18,323 + 34,200 + 112M/? = 1.11(18,323 + 30,200 + 89M/?)
52,523 + 112M/? = 53,861 + 98.79M/?
13.21M/? = 1337.53
? = 9,876.41

Airplay divider ~ 9,875

Checking:
Using formula (a) 775:10:9875, BS total points for 12/13 = 63,865 and for 12/6 = 57,536 which is 11.0% apart
Using formula (b) 925:12:9875, 12/13 = 55,193 and 12/6 = 49,531 which is 11.4% apart.

[Deleted]

^ ah, solving for x, reminds me of good old high school math days high school math was such a joke compared to what I have now #engineeringproblems
Anyway, back on topic, do you know when you will be able to start the 2015 charts? Don't mean to rush you or anything...

[Deleted]

Dec 3, 2014 17:58:26 GMT -5 bobpiecheese said:

Dec 3, 2014 13:01:24 GMT -5 Kris said:

but it is weird that he used TMTC, kind of like CS last year. 

I'd say TMTC is more analagous to The Monster, as Counting Stars still hit the Billboard Year-End list, whereas The Monster didn't. I guess we'll see next Thursday (Friday for Australians like me...stupid timezones).

I'm more surprised Story of my Life made it through. Though maybe that's just me having a sad that Don't Tell 'Em did but Chandelier didn't. Oh well, at least Anaconda and Wiggle didn't make it.

Lol I think he was taking at DJ Earworm's mashups, not the Hot 100 year-end chart...

[Daniel Collins]

I will start next week. I have lots of exams this week :'(

[Joey]

Dec 4, 2014 0:23:46 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

I will start next week. I have lots of exams this week :'(

Prelims niyo? Kami rin. lol 

[Daniel Collins]

^Hindi. Finals na. :)

[Mr. Thonk Eyes]

Dec 4, 2014 0:23:46 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

I will start next week. I have lots of exams this week :'(

You will be starting from the 12/6/14 chart and going until the 12/20/14 chart correct?

[Daniel Collins]

^Yes. But I'll still do it in 3 different posts.

[Mr. Thonk Eyes]

Dec 4, 2014 10:57:05 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

^Yes. But I'll still do it in 3 different posts.

Kinda had that figured lol

[bobpiecheese]

Dec 3, 2014 23:39:12 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Lol I think he was taking at DJ Earworm's mashups, not the Hot 100 year-end chart...

That's what I was talking about. I've challenged myself to parody every song in the USOP and I like to do that in the order they are on the Year-End list, so I know it's been three years in a row (as far as we know) that Earworm's included a song in his mix that didn't make it to the Year-End: Locked Out Of Heaven in 2012, The Monster in 2013 and now Take Me To Church in 2014.

[Dylan :)]

Dec 4, 2014 17:12:28 GMT -5 bobpiecheese said:

Dec 3, 2014 23:39:12 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Lol I think he was taking at DJ Earworm's mashups, not the Hot 100 year-end chart...

That's what I was talking about. I've challenged myself to parody every song in the USOP and I like to do that in the order they are on the Year-End list, so I know it's been three years in a row (as far as we know) that Earworm's included a song in his mix that didn't make it to the Year-End: Locked Out Of Heaven in 2012, The Monster in 2013 and now Take Me To Church in 2014.

He explained this in 2011.

"It doesn't match Billboard's U.S. year-end list, since I'm basing it off of the weekly lists this year in order to more reflect what was actually popular during 2011. Because of the Billboard's early cut off date and their emphasis on chart longevity, songs that are released after August are either split between the two years or moved to the next year. I also don't want a track appearing two years in a row just because it happened to be peaking right at the cutoff. From my perspective, a song for a year-end mix belongs in the year it will be remembered from, not the year it ended its run. For instance, "We Found Love", which has been #1 for the last 8 weeks of the year, is nowhere to be seen in Billboard's Top 25, and may not make it next year either due to the bias of the cut-off date. As a bonus I am able to spend more time on the mixes and more fully realize them."

This used be right. But recently, he's been cutting stuff out of the top 25 and is not doing this quite fairly. For example, and I've been using this a lot, but Don't Tell 'Em should NOT be there. Chandelier SHOULD be there. But, that's just me.

[bobpiecheese]

Dec 4, 2014 17:20:29 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

He explained this in 2011.

"It doesn't match Billboard's U.S. year-end list, since I'm basing it off of the weekly lists this year in order to more reflect what was actually popular during 2011. Because of the Billboard's early cut off date and their emphasis on chart longevity, songs that are released after August are either split between the two years or moved to the next year. I also don't want a track appearing two years in a row just because it happened to be peaking right at the cutoff. From my perspective, a song for a year-end mix belongs in the year it will be remembered from, not the year it ended its run. For instance, "We Found Love", which has been #1 for the last 8 weeks of the year, is nowhere to be seen in Billboard's Top 25, and may not make it next year either due to the bias of the cut-off date. As a bonus I am able to spend more time on the mixes and more fully realize them."

This used be right. But recently, he's been cutting stuff out of the top 25 and is not doing this quite fairly. For example, and I've been using this a lot, but Don't Tell 'Em should NOT be there. Chandelier SHOULD be there. But, that's just me.

I know he's been doing that, I've read that spiel before. I'm just noting that redseagulls comparing TMTC's appearance to Counting Stars last year isn't quite as analagous. But then again, I was kinda applying the way I look at the USOP in comparison to the Billboard Year-End to his post which most likely just a general observation and I'm just rambling now.

I certainly agree that Chandelier should've been in there and not DTM. I still don't get how a song that generic and boring got so big without a music video.

[Deleted]

Dec 4, 2014 17:20:29 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Dec 4, 2014 17:12:28 GMT -5 bobpiecheese said:

That's what I was talking about. I've challenged myself to parody every song in the USOP and I like to do that in the order they are on the Year-End list, so I know it's been three years in a row (as far as we know) that Earworm's included a song in his mix that didn't make it to the Year-End: Locked Out Of Heaven in 2012, The Monster in 2013 and now Take Me To Church in 2014.

He explained this in 2011.

"It doesn't match Billboard's U.S. year-end list, since I'm basing it off of the weekly lists this year in order to more reflect what was actually popular during 2011. Because of the Billboard's early cut off date and their emphasis on chart longevity, songs that are released after August are either split between the two years or moved to the next year. I also don't want a track appearing two years in a row just because it happened to be peaking right at the cutoff. From my perspective, a song for a year-end mix belongs in the year it will be remembered from, not the year it ended its run. For instance, "We Found Love", which has been #1 for the last 8 weeks of the year, is nowhere to be seen in Billboard's Top 25, and may not make it next year either due to the bias of the cut-off date. As a bonus I am able to spend more time on the mixes and more fully realize them."

This used be right. But recently, he's been cutting stuff out of the top 25 and is not doing this quite fairly. For example, and I've been using this a lot, but Don't Tell 'Em should NOT be there. Chandelier SHOULD be there. But, that's just me.

But Look At Me Now, How To Love, F**kin' Perfect, What's My Name, Titanium, etc. WERE actually popular in their respective years, yet he didn't include them! We Found Love and Sexy and I Know It were much bigger in 2012 than in 2011 and were more remembered from 2012. For the same reason, Locked Out of Heaven and Ho Hey and maybe even Diamonds and Die Young (though I'm kinda iffy on the last two since they did burn out kinda early in the year) should've been 2013 and The Monster, Counting Stars, and Demons should've been 2014 and Blank Space, Take Me To Church and maybe Animals should be 2015 (again Animals perhaps not since it's dying out already in December 2014). I still will never understand his motives no matter how much he explains them. 

[bobpiecheese]

Clearly the issue here is Billboard's decision to have the cutoff date be the end of November instead of the seemingly more sensible end of December. It's worked for the UK and Australia so far!


Don't mind me, just being snarky. Impatience for the official list does that.

[Daniel Collins]

Week 1: 12/6/14

Formula: Sales/10 + Airplay/9,875 + Streams/775

Hot 100	Song	Points	% Streams	%Sales	%Radio
1	Blank Space	57,580	32%	52%	16%
2	All About That Bass	33,770	44%	31%	24%
3	Take Me To Church	31,900	28%	55%	17%
4	Animals	31,290	24%	31%	46%
5	Shake It Off	30,760	39%	27%	34%
6	Habits (Stay High)	27,520	30%	21%	50%
7	I'm Not The Only One	23,960	29%	41%	29%
8	Jealous	22,200	33%	41%	27%
9	Love Me Harder	21,010	41%	28%	32%
10	Don't	20,400	19%	26%	54%

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
-	1	Taylor Swift	Blank Space	57,580	1	1	1
-	2	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	33,770	2	1	2
-	3	Hozier	Take Me To Church	31,900	3	1	3
-	4	Maroon 5	Animals	31,290	4	1	4
-	5	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	30,760	5	1	5
-	6	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	27,520	6	1	6
-	7	Sam Smith	I'm Not The Only One	23,960	7	1	7
-	8	Nick Jonas	Jealous	22,200	8	1	8
-	9	Ariana Grande & The Weeknd	Love Me Harder	21,010	9	1	9
-	10	Ed Sheeran	Don't	20,400	10	1	10
-	11	Big Sean ft. E-40	I Don't f**k With You	20,150	11	1	11
-	12	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	20,110	12	1	12
-	13	I LOVE MAKONNEN ft. Drake	Tuesday	19,630	13	1	13
-	14	Mr. Probz	Waves	18,920	14	1	14
-	15	Bobby Shmurda	Hot Boy	18,740	15	1	15
-	16	Rae Sremmurd	No Type	16,360	16	1	16
-	17	Jason Derulo	Trumpets	16,310	17	1	17
-	18	Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars	Uptown Funk!	16,150	18	1	18
-	19	Meghan Trainor	Lips Are Movin	16,130	19	1	19
-	20	Selena Gomez	The Heart Wants What It Wants	15,840	20	1	20
-	21	Calvin Harris ft. John Newmann	Blame	15,760	21	1	21
-	22	Jeremih ft. YG	Don't Tell 'Em	15,170	22	1	22
-	23	Iggy Azalea ft. Rita Ora	Black Widow	15,110	23	1	23
-	24	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	14,410	24	1	24
-	25	Fall Out Boy	Centuries	13,250	25	1	25
-	26	Pentatonix	Mary, Did You Know?	13,070	26	1	26
-	27	Rich Gang ft. Young Thug, Rich Homie Quan	Lifestyle	13,000	27	1	27
-	28	Clean Bandit ft. Jess Glynne	Rather Be	12,840	28	1	28
-	29	One Direction	Steal My Girl	12,680	29	1	29
-	30	Echosmith	Cool Kids	12,320	30	1	30
-	31	Nicki Minaj ft. Drake, Lil Wayne, Chris Brown	Only	11,580	31	1	31
-	32	Sia	Chandelier	11,310	32	1	32
-	33	MAGIC!	Rude	11,180	33	1	33
-	34	Vance Joy	Riptide	10,850	34	1	34
-	35	Iggy Azalea ft. M0	Beg For It	10,460	35	1	35
-	36	Fergie	L.A.LOVE (la la)	10,100	36	1	36
-	37	Chris Brown ft. Usher, Rick Ross	New Flame	9,700	37	1	37
-	38	Carrie Underwood	Something In The Water	9,500	38	1	38
-	39	DJ Khaled ft. Chris Brown, August Alsina, Future, Jeremih	Hold You Down	9,250	39	1	39
-	40	Ed Sheeran	Thinking Out Loud	9,000	40	1	40
-	41	Milky Chance	Stolen Dance	8,800	41	1	41
-	42	Ariana Grande ft. Zedd	Break Free	8,600	42	1	42
-	43	John Legend	All of Me	8,400	43	1	43
-	44	Trey Songz ft. Nicki Minaj	Touchin, Lovin	8,200	44	1	44
-	45	Tim McGraw	Shotgun Rider	8,100	45	1	45
-	46	Enrique Iglesias ft. Descemer Bueno, Gente De Zona	Bailando	8,000	46	1	46
-	47	Dej Loaf	Try Me	7,900	47	1	47
-	48	Iggy Azalea ft. Charli XCX	Fancy	7,600	48	1	48
-	49	Charli XCX	Boom Clap	7,500	49	1	49
-	50	Pharrell Williams	Happy	7,400	50	1	50

[jarhys]

Blank Space missed its biggest week for 2015. :(

[tucomrang]

I can see Blank Space staying on top until January 
Crashing em all Lord   

[Daniel Collins]

Week 2: Up to week dated 12/13/14

Formula: Sales/10 + Airplay/9,875 + Streams/775

Hot 100	Song	Points	% Streams	% Sales	% Radio
1	Blank Space	63,860	29%	54%	18%
2	All About That Bass	33,280	42%	36%	22%
3	Take Me To Church	30,870	31%	49%	20%
4	Shake It Off	30,760	39%	30%	30%
5	Animals	28,710	25%	27%	48%
6	The Heart Wants What It Wants	28,410	42%	48%	10%
7	I'm Not The Only One	27,170	29%	43%	28%
8	Uptown Funk!	25,310	23%	66%	11%
9	Habits (Stay High)	25,170	30%	19%	51%
10	Love Me Harder	23,820	40%	29%	31%

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
1	1	Taylor Swift	Blank Space	121,440	1	2	1
2	2	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	67,050	2	2	2
3	3	Hozier	Take Me To Church	62,770	3	2	3
5	4	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	61,520	4	2	4
4	5	Maroon 5	Animals	60,000	5	2	4
6	6	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	55,930	9	2	6
7	7	Sam Smith	I'm Not The Only One	51,130	7	2	7
8	8	Nick Jonas	Jealous	47,510	11	2	8
9	9	Ariana Grande & The Weeknd	Love Me Harder	45,170	10	2	9
20	10	Selena Gomez	The Heart Wants What It Wants	44,380	6	2	6
18	11	Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars	Uptown Funk!	41,420	8	2	8
12	12	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	40,310	14	2	12
11	13	Big Sean ft. E-40	I Don't Fuck With You	40,300	15	2	11
10	14	Ed Sheeran	Don't	39,710	17	2	10
13	15	I LOVE MAKONNEN ft. Drake	Tuesday	39,010	16	2	13
19	16	Meghan Trainor	Lips Are Movin	37,360	13	2	13
14	17	Mr. Probz	Waves	35,910	20	2	14
15	18	Bobby Shmurda	Hot Boy	35,810	19	2	15
16	19	Rae Sremmurd	No Type	33,140	21	2	16
17	20	Jason Derulo	Trumpets	31,210	22	2	17
21	21	Calvin Harris ft. John Newmann	Blame	30,530	23	2	21
23	22	Iggy Azalea ft. Rita Ora	Black Widow	29,810	24	2	23
22	23	Jeremih ft. YG	Don't Tell 'Em	29,330	25	2	22
24	24	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	28,560	26	2	24
25	25	Fall Out Boy	Centuries	25,860	28	2	25
27	26	Rich Gang ft. Young Thug, Rich Homie Quan	Lifestyle	25,240	30	2	27
36	27	Fergie	L.A.LOVE (la la)	24,020	27	2	27
28	28	Clean Bandit ft. Jess Glynne	Rather Be	24,000	32	2	28
35	29	Iggy Azalea ft. M0	Beg For It	23,020	29	2	29
101	30	james Newton Howard ft. Jennifer Lawrence	The Hanging Tree	22,710	12	1	12
31	31	Nicki Minaj ft. Drake, Lil Wayne, Chris Brown	Only	22,510	33	2	31
30	32	Echosmith	Cool Kids	22,310	36	2	30
29	33	One Direction	Steal My Girl	21,680	45	2	29
32	34	Sia	Chandelier	21,380	35	2	32
33	35	MAGIC!	Rude	21,040	37	2	33
34	36	Vance Joy	Riptide	20,220	40	2	34
26	37	Pentatonix	Mary, Did You Know?	19,570	60	2	26
40	38	Ed Sheeran	Thinking Out Loud	18,600	39	2	39
55	39	One Direction	Night Changes	18,340	31	2	31
39	40	DJ Khaled ft. Chris Brown, August Alsina, Future, Jeremih	Hold You Down	18,300	43	2	39
37	41	Chris Brown ft. Usher, Rick Ross	New Flame	18,100	48	2	37
42	42	Ariana Grande ft. Zedd	Break Free	17,700	42	2	42
38	43	Carrie Underwood	Something In The Water	17,100	52	2	38
101	44	Beyonce	7/11	17,090	18	1	18
45	45	Tim McGraw	Shotgun Rider	16,710	47	2	45
47	46	Dej Loaf	Try Me	16,700	46	2	46
48	47	Iggy Azalea ft. Charli XCX	Fancy	16,625	44	2	44
41	48	Milky Chance	Stolen Dance	16,600	51	2	41
65	49	Lorde	Yellow Flicker Beat	16,290	34	2	34
54	50	Nicki Minaj	Anaconda	15,210	49	2	49

[Future Captain]

Geez, All About That Bass might as well end up in top 20 for two years in a row. (But for some reason, I'm pretty sure it will begin plummeting in January)