Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2015 21:46:45 GMT -5
I actually think this will be the year end top 10:
1-Uptown Funk! 2-Thinking Out Loud 3- See You Again 4- Trap Queen 5- Sugar 6- Cheerleader 7-Shut Up and Dance 8- Blank Space 9-Can't Feel My Face 10-Earned It
Yeah I conceded that TOL will be #2, and these are all according to longevity, time spent in the top 10 and where they'll likely stand at the end of the chart year.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2015 21:51:58 GMT -5
I also think 11-20 may end up like this: 11-Watch Me 12-Take Me To Church 13-Love Me Like You Do 14-Bad Blood 15-Shake It Off 16-The Hills 17-Lean On 18-Lips Are Moving 19-Want To Want Me 20-I'm Not The Only One
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2015 22:49:18 GMT -5
Slay, Weeknd :'(
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2015 23:11:12 GMT -5
I have INTOO ahead of Lips Are Movin in my predictions, same with AATB
|
|
THINKIN BOUT YOU
Platinum Member
a good-looking gay man
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 1,364
|
Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Sept 20, 2015 23:51:57 GMT -5
Ow~ why are you crying, honey?
|
|
THINKIN BOUT YOU
Platinum Member
a good-looking gay man
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 1,364
|
Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Sept 20, 2015 23:55:49 GMT -5
Only if Uptown Funk chanced upon Christmas season when it was falling out of top 10 (like All About That Bass and Royals)... That way its top 10 weeks could be extending for another 1-4 weeks and beating the record..
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2015 7:08:51 GMT -5
Ow~ why are you crying, honey? tears of happiness lol
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2015 16:16:40 GMT -5
Obviously Drag Me Down will be in next week's top 100 and should have enough gas left to secure a final spot.
Hotline Bling is really taking off now, so if not next week, the following week. I'm not betting on Back to Back making it at this point.
Like I'm Gonna Lose You has potential, and Ex's & Oh's and Hit the Quan are both looking good... for now.
Wildest Dreams is within 4 weeks of the top 100, guaranteed. Downtown should also secure a spot not longer after.
There are obviously other potentials as well.... these are just a few I chose to talk about from my spreadsheet.
8 weeks to go - still time for some new smashes to crash the party!
|
|
Dylan :)
Diamond Member
smth 'bout youu
Joined: October 2014
Posts: 12,572
|
Post by Dylan :) on Sept 22, 2015 16:49:57 GMT -5
So at least seven songs. Guessing maybe three other new songs can make it, Ellie, Sia and Ariana?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2015 16:51:28 GMT -5
So at least seven songs. Guessing maybe three other new songs can make it, Ellie, Sia and Ariana? Ariana will be released too late I think - Oct 30. It'll only have 3 chart weeks worth of points that count, so while possible if its a mega smasher right out of the box with 3 huge weeks... it's not likely, imo. The threshold gets higher every week. I'm still hoping for an Adele track. Ellie is possible, sure. Sia? Up in the air. Ellie has the advantage by releasing with 8 weeks left. It's gonna be tight going forward, so now's the time ladies and gentlemen! :)
|
|
Dylan :)
Diamond Member
smth 'bout youu
Joined: October 2014
Posts: 12,572
|
Post by Dylan :) on Sept 22, 2015 16:55:56 GMT -5
So at least seven songs. Guessing maybe three other new songs can make it, Ellie, Sia and Ariana? Ariana will be released too late I think - Oct 30. It'll only have 3 chart weeks worth of points that count, so while possible... it's not likely, imo. The threshold gets higher every week. I'm still hoping for an Adele track. Ellie is possible, sure. Sia? Up in the air. Ellie has the advantage by releasing with 8 weeks left. It's gonna be tight going forward, so now's the time ladies and gentlemen! :) She may be able to sneak in a week like Diamonds. I'm hoping it debuts at #1 and spends 4-5 weeks there, with its second and third being the weakest, and the others her strongest. If she remains in the top 10 until March and on the chart until late summer I think she should have a chance at top 10 next year, but of course, this is all just wishful thinking. It may go this way but have much stronger competition next year and miss it, or flop in general.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2015 16:59:08 GMT -5
Ariana will be released too late I think - Oct 30. It'll only have 3 chart weeks worth of points that count, so while possible... it's not likely, imo. The threshold gets higher every week. I'm still hoping for an Adele track. Ellie is possible, sure. Sia? Up in the air. Ellie has the advantage by releasing with 8 weeks left. It's gonna be tight going forward, so now's the time ladies and gentlemen! :) She may be able to sneak in a week like Diamonds. I'm hoping it debuts at #1 and spends 4-5 weeks there, with its second and third being the weakest, and the others her strongest. If she remains in the top 10 until March and on the chart until late summer I think she should have a chance at top 10 next year, but of course, this is all just wishful thinking. It may go this way but have much stronger competition next year and miss it, or flop in general. Do you think it has potential to score more points than What Do You Mean did in its first 3 weeks?
|
|
Dylan :)
Diamond Member
smth 'bout youu
Joined: October 2014
Posts: 12,572
|
Post by Dylan :) on Sept 22, 2015 17:04:01 GMT -5
She may be able to sneak in a week like Diamonds. I'm hoping it debuts at #1 and spends 4-5 weeks there, with its second and third being the weakest, and the others her strongest. If she remains in the top 10 until March and on the chart until late summer I think she should have a chance at top 10 next year, but of course, this is all just wishful thinking. It may go this way but have much stronger competition next year and miss it, or flop in general. Do you think it has potential to score more points than What Do You Mean did in its first 3 weeks? Depends on the release. If they release the video on the same day as the single release, radio is even bigger, and bigger sales (if I remember right Problem debuted with higher sales), it may. All depends on the other songs in November. I don't think there will be much competition then. The Hills and Justin should be near done, as well as Locked Away and possibly Stitches. I can't see Downtown or Wildest Dreams challenging it
|
|
Dylan :)
Diamond Member
smth 'bout youu
Joined: October 2014
Posts: 12,572
|
Post by Dylan :) on Sept 22, 2015 17:08:25 GMT -5
Can you also post the top 50 of those "if this week happened again.." guesstimates, please? :)
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2015 17:12:45 GMT -5
Do you think it has potential to score more points than What Do You Mean did in its first 3 weeks? Depends on the release. If they release the video on the same day as the single release, radio is even bigger, and bigger sales (if I remember right Problem debuted with higher sales), it may. All depends on the other songs in November. I don't think there will be much competition then. The Hills and Justin should be near done, as well as Locked Away and possibly Stitches. I can't see Downtown or Wildest Dreams challenging it #1 or position and competition aside, I'm just thinking of total points in a 3 week time frame... Problem did have huge 1st week sales... but sales are lower now across the board... so I wouldn't count on that. It's probably going to need 130-140k points total in 3 weeks. It's doable, Justin did it, but... I remain skeptical until I see it's first week's point total.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2015 20:09:34 GMT -5
I'm not betting on Back to Back making it at this point. Maybe not on your list, but if "Back To Back" continues to stay around in the top 50, it'll very likely make the official list, and is probably looking like it might happen after rebounding to 33 in its 7th week on the chart, all in the top 50.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2015 20:51:12 GMT -5
Maybe not on your list, but if "Back To Back" continues to stay around in the top 50, it'll very likely make the official list, and is probably looking like it might happen after rebounding to 33 in its 7th week on the chart, all in the top 50. I'm not betting on Back to Back making it at this point. To be clear....."Not betting on it at this point"... meaning it's possible but I'm not willing to put money on it at this time. I'm waiting to see how the next 4-5 weeks play out to get a better handle on this particular song. It's not a sure thing right now, points-wise.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2015 20:54:52 GMT -5
Not sure if I asked this before, but do you think Hotline Bling has a chance of making the year-end list?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2015 20:57:10 GMT -5
Not sure if I asked this before, but do you think Hotline Bling has a chance of making the year-end list? More than a chance, it's a given at this point. It'll be in the top 100 in 2 weeks and then has 6 more weeks to keep moving up... with what looks like nice healthy weekly points!
|
|
rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
|
Post by rimetm on Sept 22, 2015 20:57:41 GMT -5
Maybe not on your list, but if "Back To Back" continues to stay around in the top 50, it'll very likely make the official list, and is probably looking like it might happen after rebounding to 33 in its 7th week on the chart, all in the top 50. It's time like this when it pays to pay attention to current events. Back to Back received a minor recovery in sales following the controversy stemming from the US's failure in the tennis open. (Drake was rumored to be the participant's date and was present at the key game) Hotline Bling was also minorly boosted, but that has gotten more buzz through being the radio single of the 4 singles and going viral on its own merits. Now, because this event occurred late into last tracking, its effects should still be present next week, as there is currently about a 30% projected gain, though that's also helped in proxy by the Future/Drake mixtape's surprise release. However, the effect of both of these events will have dissipated by next week (for the latter due to the fact that the singles are not part of the mixtape), and at that point it's safe to say the singles that are not Hotline Bling will begin their crash/regression to stablility in the 60s-80s, much like the performance of the If You're Reading This standouts (Legend, 10 Bands, Know Yourself, Energy after its brief hit stint).
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2015 21:02:09 GMT -5
Maybe not on your list, but if "Back To Back" continues to stay around in the top 50, it'll very likely make the official list, and is probably looking like it might happen after rebounding to 33 in its 7th week on the chart, all in the top 50. It's time like this when it pays to pay attention to current events. Back to Back received a minor recovery in sales following the controversy stemming from the US's failure in the tennis open. (Drake was rumored to be the participant's date and was present at the key game) Hotline Bling was also minorly boosted, but that has gotten more buzz through being the radio single of the 4 singles and going viral on its own merits. Now, because this event occurred late into last tracking, its effects should still be present next week, as there is currently about a 30% projected gain, though that's also helped in proxy by the Future/Drake mixtape's surprise release. However, the effect of both of these events will have dissipated by next week (for the latter due to the fact that the singles are not part of the mixtape), and at that point it's safe to say the singles that are not Hotline Bling will begin their crash/regression to stablility in the 60s-80s, much like the performance of the If You're Reading This standouts (Legend, 10 Bands, Know Yourself, Energy after its brief hit stint). while I agree with a lot of what you said, it's worth pointing out that Back to Back *is* getting love at urban radio. it's top 20 there with a bullet. so it's not totally out of the question for it to sneak in if it can continue to keep a radio audience.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2015 21:02:36 GMT -5
What about Fetty Wap - Again? I think it has a chance to sneak into year end list
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2015 21:04:59 GMT -5
"Again" will need to reverse course on the Hot 100 in a major way if it has any chance at all. It's not even in the YE top 200 right now and falling on the Hot 100 after only 6 weeks on. It needs more than a bullet.
|
|
rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
|
Post by rimetm on Sept 22, 2015 21:11:29 GMT -5
What about Fetty Wap - Again? I think it has a chance to sneak into year end list It's not really getting significant sales at this point. To put it in perspective, Trap Queen, whose sales have been sub 30,000 lately (almost exactly this week, with less than 500 more according to HipHopDX), is outpacing it currently. Airplay's barely there for it (It rises 45-42 on R&B/Hiphop Airplay, but this late in its run it seems more of a tepid inevitability rather than a concerted push). Streaming also isn't that hot for it, not even making the top 10 of Rap streamed songs. Before the idea of a music video gets considered, I'd just like to point out that only now are they deciding to release a video for My Way, so Again is either going to get laid on the wayside in that regard or too late in its run, past the cutoff for 2015.
|
|
THINKIN BOUT YOU
Platinum Member
a good-looking gay man
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 1,364
|
Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Sept 26, 2015 20:42:19 GMT -5
Post To Be is therefore locked away from top 20.. why did it crush SO HARD right after it departed top 25?
|
|
Dylan :)
Diamond Member
smth 'bout youu
Joined: October 2014
Posts: 12,572
|
Post by Dylan :) on Sept 27, 2015 4:28:11 GMT -5
Post To Be is therefore locked away from top 20.. why did it crush SO HARD right after it departed top 25? It wouldn't have made it anyway, there are a couple of songs that were probably going to overtake it before the end of the year
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2015 14:41:06 GMT -5
Looking at my predictions-in-progress after today's Hot 100 highlights update... it's gonna be interesting to see how Cheerleader, Watch Me and CFMF end up in relation to each other and the top 10.
Cheerleader will be #10 next week. Watch Me will be in the top 10 in 3 weeks. And CFMF isn't that far behind, but based on the attention shift to The Hills... I'm anxious to see what kind of longevity it has and how it holds up.
In other news, Wildest Dreams is now probably 2 weeks away from cracking the top 100. Hotline Bling came close this week.
#ItsGettinGood
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2015 17:48:47 GMT -5
Im calling it right now.
White Iverson will be the 2015-2016 version of Makonnens Tuesday and Exs & Ohs will sneak in to Year End Charts Bold Predictions from me Also I need catching up to do in my predictions
What you all think? any other songs that could maybe sneak in?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2015 19:43:01 GMT -5
Songs that are either sure things or likely or possibilites to make it in the top 100 by year's end, based on current YE rank on my comprehensive spreadsheet and position on Hot 100/current momentum. I can't predict the future of these songs, so I'm just going by what I can see right now and how things could play out. Drag Me Down enters this week, pushing Maroon 5 "This Summer..." off my list. It's gonna be a tight race for some of these newbies as the weeks press on, no doubt, and they won't all make the final cut... but I'm trying to include all possibilities. The list is not in any particular order or rank.
1. Hotline Bling. Done deal. Next week.
2. Downtown. It's only a matter of time for this one, and it probably only needs 4 more weeks tops.
3. Ex's & Oh's - Probably a given at this point, imo, unless it totally reverses course, which doesn't look like that's gonna happen. It's gaining across the board and is already well within the top 200 as of last week.
4. How Deep Is Your Love - I've already mentioned I'm watching this as a possibility. With it's big pop radio spincrease this week, consistent sales, decent streaming... it is certainly not out of the question. It'll be in the top 190 as of tomorrow's update. It just needs to keep its momentum going.
5. Wildest Dreams - Sure thing in 2 weeks.
6. Hit The Quan - Moves into the top 175 this week. At its current weekly point estimate, it only needs another month... maybe less if it can make decent gains. But, pretty much a given unless it drops off the face of the Earth in a hurry. Stranger things have happened I suppose.
7. Back To Back - Already inside the top 170 as of this week. Decent shot.
8. Love Myself - Coming on strong last week and probably moving up again this week... this top 30 hit has the potential if it can hold its own for the rest of the year.
9. Strip It Down - Currently in the top 40 on the hot 100, this week will be it's 8th week on with 7 more to go. Poised to enter the top 200 tomorrow. So top 100 could still happen with 7 more weeks. Could.
10. John Cougar, John Deere, John 3:16 - In the top 150 right now, #1 at country radio, this will be it's 16th week on the hot 100. So... it's within reach but it needs to hold on strong. It's not out of the question for it to end up ahead of Homegrown and Sangria.
11. On My Mind - Decent start at #22 on tomorrow's Hot 100, but time is not on its side... especially if sales aren't strong enough. Can't exclude it as a possibility, although as of right now I don't think it's going to make it this year. That could change next week. doubt it.
12. Writing's On The Wall - Same as On My Mind, really. It could, but not likely. The movie comes out on Nov 6, which means it really only has two chart weeks of movie impact. 6th-12th counts for the 21st chart, and 13th-19th counts for the 28th of November chart, which is the final one. I don't see this smashing on the radio, either.... but I could be way off on that. More likely a 2016 contender than anything.
13. Buy Me A Boat - Within striking distance of the top 100 this week actually, but I don't think it has enough gas left in it to hold it's own against some that are bigger hits in the weeks to come.
14. Same Old Love - Possible only if it BLOWS UP and has 7 big weeks ahead of it. More likely 2016 I'd say.
15. Alive - Ditto as SOL above. Slim chance. 2016.
16. Like I'm Gonna Lose You - Good possibility if it's keeps it's current momentum. Selling way stronger than I thought it would. Already in the YE top 180 this week.
17. Smoke Break - Not looking that great for Carrie... probably needs more time than what is left. Could lose out this year and next.. split.
18. Levels - Same as Smoke Break. Initially I thought it would blow up, but it hasn't performed quickly or strongly enough to be a big contender.
19. Where Ya At - Drake is killing. it.
There are several other remote possibilities but I think there's already enough of those in the list above. There is also the possibility of some big name party crashers like Ariana or Adele, but Ariana's release date only allows her 3 chart weeks worth of points for this year so it would have to DESTROY all 3 weeks... and Adele may not even happen until after Christmas. Who knows. I hold out hope it could happen any day now. ;)
Of the 18 listed above there are 3 sure things, and at least 3 more I'm willing to bet on. There's still time for several songs to blow up and leap frog their way in. It ain't over yet!
To put things in point perspective... as of this week... a new song with the equivalent of 4 weeks in the top 5 would have enough points to make it in.
Oh and El Perdon... should be ok... airplay is still on the up and up. Not BLOWING up, but... it's hanging in there.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2015 20:33:12 GMT -5
What song is Alive again? I forgot
and On My Mind will be like Calvin Harrises Blame
You can also include Alessa Caras Here and Fetty Waps Again under possibiities
|
|