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Post by prosandcons on Oct 31, 2018 16:06:00 GMT -5
Get over it dude. It was meant to be. I'm obviously joking Yet you miss my joke? Get off the drugs.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Oct 31, 2018 16:36:04 GMT -5
Yet you miss my joke? Get off the drugs. get an avatar bro Edit: sry
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lazer
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Post by lazer on Oct 31, 2018 16:59:07 GMT -5
The fact that we’re talking about a Panic song going top 10... Have I been sucked into a time warp back to my elementary school days? I wonder what other early to mid-2000s one hit wonders we can dig up? Billboard Year End Hot 100 Singles of 2019 1: Daniel Powter - SAD Day (featuring XXXTentacion) 2: Chamillionaire - Drip! Hiss! (featuring Offset) 3: J-Kwon - High As Hell 4: Young Dro - Codeine Lean (featuring Future) 5: Eamon - Y'all Wanted Me Back! 6: Ashlee Simpson - Sing For The Moment 7: Teddy Geiger - Underage Thinking II (featuring 6ix9ine)8: Houston - Dodgers Suck! (featuring Kendrick Lamar) 9: Mary Mary - Quite Contrary 10: Ed Sheeran - Shape Of You 11: Sheck Wes - Mo Bamba (Vanessa Carlton remix) 12: Snow Patrol - Chasing Tornadoes 13: Gnarls Barkley - Psycho 14: DHT & DJ Sammy - Africa 15: The Killers - Legendary 16: Blue October - Y U Alwayz Hatin' 17: Gorillaz - Inconceivable! 18: Vertical Horizon - Friendzoned Before It Was Uncool 19: Metro Station - Trainwreck 20: Panic! At The Disco - High Hopes 21. Mims - More Reasons Why I'm Hot 22. D4L - Tootsie Roll (featuring Lil Pump) 23. Big Tymers - No Longer Fly 24. Lumidee - I Left For Awhile (Uh Oooh, Uh Oooh) 25. Kevin Lyttle - Turned Me Off 26. BBMak - Back Here Again 27. Blu Cantrell - Gangnam Style 28. 6ix9ine - Bebe (Crazy Town remix) 29. Default - Wasted More Time 30. Hoobastank - We Stank lol
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Oct 31, 2018 17:08:33 GMT -5
28. 6ix9ine - Bebe (Crazy Town remix) honest to god would not surprise me if this existed Shifty Shellshock is a nut
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nick64
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Post by nick64 on Oct 31, 2018 18:56:51 GMT -5
7: Teddy Geiger - Underage Thinking II (featuring 6ix9ine)Oh my god
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Oct 31, 2018 20:21:48 GMT -5
I'm 99 percent sure this is the official Top 20
1 God's Plan 2 Perfect 3 Meant To Be 4 Havana 5 rockstar 6 Psycho 7 I Like It 8 The Middle 9 In My Feelings 10 Girls Like You 11 Nice For What 12 Lucid Dreams 13 Better Now 14 Finesse 15 New Rules 16 Never Be The Same 17 Boo'd Up 18 Sad! 19 Mine 20 No Tears Left To Cry
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Soundcl🕤ck
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Post by Soundcl🕤ck on Oct 31, 2018 21:29:53 GMT -5
I'm 99 percent sure this is the official Top 20 1 God's Plan 2 Perfect 3 Meant To Be 4 Havana 5 rockstar 6 Psycho 7 I Like It 8 The Middle 9 In My Feelings 10 Girls Like You 11 Nice For What 12 Lucid Dreams 13 Better Now 14 Finesse 15 New Rules 16 Never Be The Same 17 Boo'd Up 18 Sad! 19 Mine 20 No Tears Left To Cry Sadly, I think Love Lies will be #19. It's Mine Vs NTLTC for #20. It all depends on this week. Also, GLY could be #9, IMF is falling really fast.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Nov 1, 2018 1:55:19 GMT -5
^. There’s a slight chance that Mine ends up as #20 then NTLTC is #21.
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atg
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Post by atg on Nov 1, 2018 8:48:25 GMT -5
Billboard Year End Hot 100 Singles of 2019 1: Daniel Powter - SAD Day (featuring XXXTentacion) 2: Chamillionaire - Drip! Hiss! (featuring Offset) 3: J-Kwon - High As Hell 4: Young Dro - Codeine Lean (featuring Future) 5: Eamon - Y'all Wanted Me Back! 6: Ashlee Simpson - Sing For The Moment 7: Teddy Geiger - Underage Thinking II (featuring 6ix9ine)8: Houston - Dodgers Suck! (featuring Kendrick Lamar) 9: Mary Mary - Quite Contrary 10: Ed Sheeran - Shape Of You 11: Sheck Wes - Mo Bamba (Vanessa Carlton remix) 12: Snow Patrol - Chasing Tornadoes 13: Gnarls Barkley - Psycho 14: DHT & DJ Sammy - Africa 15: The Killers - Legendary 16: Blue October - Y U Alwayz Hatin' 17: Gorillaz - Inconceivable! 18: Vertical Horizon - Friendzoned Before It Was Uncool 19: Metro Station - Trainwreck 20: Panic! At The Disco - High Hopes 21. Mims - More Reasons Why I'm Hot 22. D4L - Tootsie Roll (featuring Lil Pump) 23. Big Tymers - No Longer Fly 24. Lumidee - I Left For Awhile (Uh Oooh, Uh Oooh) 25. Kevin Lyttle - Turned Me Off 26. BBMak - Back Here Again 27. Blu Cantrell - Gangnam Style 28. 6ix9ine - Bebe (Crazy Town remix) 29. Default - Wasted More Time 30. Hoobastank - We Stank lol There are 2010s one hit wonders in this too lmao 31. Blocboy JB - Looking Dark (feat. 2pac) 32. Silento - Watch on My Wrist (feat. Kodak Black) 33. Baha Men - Who Let The Drip (feat. Gunna) 34. DJ Khaled - Another One (feat. The Ataris, 6ix9ine, Sheck Wes and Luis Fonsi) 35. Cali Swag District - ZEZE (Remix) 36. Smilez and Southstar - Tell Me More 37. Luis Fonsi - Despacito 2 (feat. Drake and Lil Pump) 38. The Chainsmokers & Tweet - Oh Ok 39. Khia - My Back Again (feat. Chris Brown) 40. The Calling - Following Everywhere You Go (feat. French Montana and Usher)
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Nov 1, 2018 9:43:01 GMT -5
Ok, lets look at fhas's top 20 with 4 weeks to go.
For the #1 song that's almost a dead heat. God's Plan could be upset by Perfect, depending on how Billboard treats the change in scoring. The rest of the top 4 are locked, since Meant To Be fell off this week. Psycho could gain the 35,000 points to climb to 5th in the remaining 4 weeks, but the song would have to remain very steady. Either way, Post Malone has back-to-back tracks in the top 10.
I Like It is too far behind to climb any higher. In My Feelings is gaining 6,000 pts a week on The Middle, and 24,000 points behind with 4 weeks to go. I don't think that margin will maintain, and The Middle will stay in front.
Girls Like You is certain to climb into the top 10 of the year next week. Can it go higher? It gained 15,000 on In My Feelings (57,000 behind) and 21,000 on The Middle (93,000 behind) last week. That probably won't be enough to move any higher up by the year-end/
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samo🦕
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Post by samo🦕 on Nov 1, 2018 11:52:44 GMT -5
Ok, lets look at fhas 's top 20 with 4 weeks to go.
Girls Like You is certain to climb into the top 10 of the year next week. Can it go higher? It gained 15,000 on In My Feelings (57,000 behind) last week. That probably won't be enough to move any higher up by the year-end/ I'm pretty sure GLY will overtake IMF, since the gap between them is only getting larger, and GLY will probably make up more than a quarter of the 57,000-point gap next week.
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Nov 1, 2018 12:13:41 GMT -5
What I think the top 25 will be:
1. God's Plan 2. Perfect 3. Meant to Be 4. Havana 5. Psycho 6. Rockstar 7. I Like It 8. The Middle 9. Girls Like You 10. In My Feelings
11. Nice for What 12. Lucid Dreams 13. Better Now 14. Boo'd Up 15. Finesse 16. Sad! 17. New Rules 18. Love Lies 19. Never Be the Same 20. Mine
21. No Tears Left to Cry 22. Look Alive 23. Thunder 24. Delicate 25. Yes Indeed
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Nov 1, 2018 18:08:44 GMT -5
Here's my calculations of the top songs of the year up to and including this week's chart, based on a weighted point scale. I've included every song in the top 100 and added any songs still on the chart and in the top 300.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2018 18:15:42 GMT -5
Your list looks like the inverse points system with some added bonus points to songs that hit the top 10.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Nov 1, 2018 18:35:04 GMT -5
Your list looks like the inverse points system with some added bonus points to songs that hit the top 10. Yup. Bonus points actually start in the top 50, but increase as the songs get closer to the top. And when songs spend multiple weeks in the top 3 there are further bonuses.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2018 18:36:05 GMT -5
Your list looks like the inverse points system with some added bonus points to songs that hit the top 10. Yup. Bonus points actually start in the top 50, but increase as the songs get closer to the top. And when songs spend multiple weeks in the top 3 there are further bonuses.Yea your system is corrupt. I like fhases system better. Yours just seems made up. Anybody could have done it your way.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Nov 1, 2018 18:40:38 GMT -5
I like fhas's system better too. And while anyone could have done it my way, I suspect very few have. When you have done the same yourself, then you can complain.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Nov 1, 2018 18:42:58 GMT -5
Yup. Bonus points actually start in the top 50, but increase as the songs get closer to the top. And when songs spend multiple weeks in the top 3 there are further bonuses. Yea your system is corrupt. I like fhases system better. Yours just seems made up. Anybody could have done it your way. Looking at inverse systems vs real points can be really interesting. I actually enjoy seeing both systems and analyzing how they compare, but fhas is doing the actual Year End predictions (Inverse are used for decade/all time, but year end is based on real points.)
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Nov 1, 2018 18:53:50 GMT -5
Yea your system is corrupt. I like fhases system better. Yours just seems made up. Anybody could have done it your way. That's a bit harsh. rockgolf have you tried testing your methodology on earlier years, to see how well it matches up with Billboard's? Yes. My top ten for 2017 matched Billboard's except I idiotically forgot to include Closer. Not position-for-position but the same 10 songs, and no more than 2 positions away from Billboard.
And since I can do this for all years, I can (and have) calculated all-time listed, adjusted for the years the songs charted. You can see my top 300 here
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Nov 1, 2018 18:55:49 GMT -5
That's a bit harsh. rockgolf have you tried testing your methodology on earlier years, to see how well it matches up with Billboard's? Yes. My top ten for 2017 matched Billboard's except I idiotically forgot to include Closer. Not position-for-position but the same 10 songs, and no more than 2 positions away from Billboard.
And since I can do this for all years, I can (and have) calculated all-time listed, adjusted for the years the songs charted. You can see my top 300 here
Party Rock Anthem only at 19? woah
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Nov 1, 2018 19:27:11 GMT -5
I like fhas's system better too. And while anyone could have done it my way, I suspect very few have. When you have done the same yourself, then you can complain. You're doing great. I don't know what's the point of criticizing something that is so useful and takes a lot of time to do.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Nov 1, 2018 19:52:23 GMT -5
Aww man your top 300 is way better. Closer in top 10 and an actual deserving fitting song at #1, I wish that's what the official one was
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hydraflare
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Post by hydraflare on Nov 1, 2018 22:20:11 GMT -5
fhas How many points do Drip Too Hard and Most People Are Good have?
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Nov 1, 2018 22:40:04 GMT -5
Most People Are Good is gonna be so far below it's irrelevant lol. Honestly it's a good song and I wish it made it but it's sorta just wasting his time trying to calculate the points for that and it's a ton of work just to keep the predictions updated as is, especially since it involves going and looking at the chart points in March and April.
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tallen2001
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Post by tallen2001 on Nov 1, 2018 23:16:54 GMT -5
Drip Too Hard charted too late to make it this year, but if it sticks around it could make the 2019 YE.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Nov 2, 2018 4:49:21 GMT -5
I like fhas's system better too. And while anyone could have done it my way, I suspect very few have. When you have done the same yourself, then you can complain. You're doing great. I don't know what's the point of criticizing something that is so useful and takes a lot of time to do. Thank you. You have no idea how validating that was to me.
As you're I'm sure aware, this is the tightest fight for #1 song of the year in decades. And there's a number of x-factors which could affects whether God's Plan or Perfect is actually selected as #1 by Billboard. - To move the "Week ending" date on the chart closer to the actual date, early this year Billboard posted 2 charts in the same week. They both covered non-overlapping 7 day periods, but are they both going to be weighted equal to other weeks? We both presume so, but if not, that could reduce Perfect's point count. Advantage: Drake
- The system used by Billboard to calculate points also changed during the BB 2018 year. Will the points of songs before that be recalculated for the year-end? If so, would that improve or reduce Perfect's score. Advantage: none.
- When the 60th anniversary chart came out, Perfect was ahead of God's Plan. Not surprising in August. But this forum looking at that chart speculated that Uptown Funk ended up higher than expected and the theory was that points for Uptown were included even for weeks after the song had been dropped due to the 52/25 rule. Perhaps they still are - it makes some sense. When the top grossing movies of the year are determined, all receipts are included, even when the movie falls out of the top ten. Should recurrent points be included in determining the actual top tracks of the year, rather than of each week? There's a substantial argument for answering "yes". Advantage: Sheeran.
- This is Drake's year. Period. He'll be artist of the year, album of the year and about 20 other categories in the Billboard awards. So there may be a benefit to Billboard to put their thumb on the scale to put Sheeran on top of the year end Hot 100. Sheeran at #1 will be of more interest to more people in the general public. I know it's hard to believe, but there are a lot of people who don't follow the charts who have little or no knowledge of Drake. He just doesn't get played on radio nearly as much, and that's where the great unwashed masses still consume music most often. Sheeran having two #1 songs of the year in a row would be bigger news and give Billboard more publicity. Advantage: Sheeran.
- Least likely to affect the Year-end topper: Simply put, Perfect was the bigger song on the charts. But a significant part of its run was in Billboard calendar year 2016. In fact, if the full chart run of all songs that peaked in 2016 were counted, Perfect would have been the #3 song of 2016 behind Shape of You and Despacito. But if Smooth, the biggest single-run hit in the history of the Hot 100 was never a #1 song of the year, I doubt they'll do anything special for Perfect. Advantage: Drake.
So to me, the actual #1 is a toss-up. But I'm going with Perfect as my pick, if only not to follow the crowd.
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ahmiizafii
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Post by ahmiizafii on Nov 2, 2018 5:50:11 GMT -5
it will be interesting for sure
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Nov 2, 2018 10:26:23 GMT -5
You're doing great. I don't know what's the point of criticizing something that is so useful and takes a lot of time to do. Thank you. You have no idea how validating that was to me.
As you're I'm sure aware, this is the tightest fight for #1 song of the year in decades. And there's a number of x-factors which could affects whether God's Plan or Perfect is actually selected as #1 by Billboard. - To move the "Week ending" date on the chart closer to the actual date, early this year Billboard posted 2 charts in the same week. They both covered non-overlapping 7 day periods, but are they both going to be weighted equal to other weeks? We both presume so, but if not, that could reduce Perfect's point count. Advantage: Drake
- The system used by Billboard to calculate points also changed during the BB 2018 year. Will the points of songs before that be recalculated for the year-end? If so, would that improve or reduce Perfect's score. Advantage: none.
- When the 60th anniversary chart came out, Perfect was ahead of God's Plan. Not surprising in August. But this forum looking at that chart speculated that Uptown Funk ended up higher than expected and the theory was that points for Uptown were included even for weeks after the song had been dropped due to the 52/25 rule. Perhaps they still are - it makes some sense. When the top grossing movies of the year are determined, all receipts are included, even when the movie falls out of the top ten. Should recurrent points be included in determining the actual top tracks of the year, rather than of each week? There's a substantial argument for answering "yes". Advantage: Sheeran.
- This is Drake's year. Period. He'll be artist of the year, album of the year and about 20 other categories in the Billboard awards. So there may be a benefit to Billboard to put their thumb on the scale to put Sheeran on top of the year end Hot 100. Sheeran at #1 will be of more interest to more people in the general public. I know it's hard to believe, but there are a lot of people who don't follow the charts who have little or no knowledge of Drake. He just doesn't get played on radio nearly as much, and that's where the great unwashed masses still consume music most often. Sheeran having two #1 songs of the year in a row would be bigger news and give Billboard more publicity. Advantage: Sheeran.
- Least likely to affect the Year-end topper: Simply put, Perfect was the bigger song on the charts. But a significant part of its run was in Billboard calendar year 2016. In fact, if the full chart run of all songs that peaked in 2016 were counted, Perfect would have been the #3 song of 2016 behind Shape of You and Despacito. But if Smooth, the biggest single-run hit in the history of the Hot 100 was never a #1 song of the year, I doubt they'll do anything special for Perfect. Advantage: Drake.
So to me, the actual #1 is a toss-up. But I'm going with Perfect as my pick, if only not to follow the crowd.
The race for #1 on the Year-End has been close in the Streaming Era, except for 2015 when Uptown Funk! was clearly much bigger than Thinking Out Loud. I think 2016 was the closest race: Love Yourself 1,038,710 vs. Sorry 1,018,450 vs. One Dance 997,120. In 2014, the race wasn't that close, but we had three songs fighting for #1: Happy 1,389,830 vs. Dark Horse 1,322,250 vs. All Of Me 1,312,720. 2018 is hard to predict because they changed the formula after mid-year point. They used to change the formula in early February and I'm not sure how Billboard adjust that for the YE chart. I remember Ride$ saying that Locked Out Of Heaven was "robbed" (not exactly that word) in 2013 when they added YouTube to the formula weeks after LOOH's peak and despite being a six-week #1 that peaked in January it ended up only at #11 on the YE chart. Also, I hope God's Plan is 2018. Not only because Drake is my favorite artist of the year and I hate Ed Sheeran's music, but we are in the streaming era and the streaming #1 never won the YE #1. However, the radio #1 has been the YE winner since 2015.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Nov 2, 2018 10:32:03 GMT -5
fhas: Are your projections from previous years available on this forum?
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fhas
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Post by fhas on Nov 2, 2018 10:37:04 GMT -5
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