Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[nathanalbright]

Billboard's stories are behind the paywall too.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

"One Thing Right" is classified as EDM, not country. "Old Town Road" is country in the looks of people, but not on Billboard.

[spicymapping]

me and the boys when 3 dan + shay songs within the margin of error

TL, DR:
Locked: Beautiful People
Added: My Type, Trampoline

1. Sunflower (=)
2. Without Me (=)
3. Old Town Road (=)
4. 7 Rings (=)
5. Happier (=)
6. Wow. (=)
7. SICKO MODE (=)
8. bad guy (=)
9. thank u, next (=)
10. High Hopes (=)
11. Sucker (=)
12. Talk (=)
13. Dancing With a Stranger (=)
14. Eastside (=)
15. Shallow (=)
16. Going Bad (=)
17. Better (=)
18. Girls Like You (=)
19. I Don't Care (+2)
20.Sweet But Psycho (-1)
21. Truth Hurts (+2)
22. MIDDLE CHILD (-2)
23. Drip Too Hard (-1)
24. Señorita (=)
25. Suge (=)
26. If I Can’t Have You (+3)
27. Please Me (-1)
28. ZEZE (-1)
29. Better Now (-1)
30. Youngblood (=)
31. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored(=)
32. Money (=)
33. No Guidance (+4)
34. Speechless (-1)
35. a lot (-1)
36. MIA (-1)
37. Look Back At It (-1)
38. Pop Out (+5)
39. ME! (-1)
40. Thotiana (-1)
41. Beautiful Crazy (-1)
42. God's Country (-1)
43. Lucid Dreams (-1)
44. Whiskey Glasses (=)
45. Mo Bamba (=)
46. Wake Up In The Sky (=)
47. Be Alright (=)
48. Pure Water (=)
49. Close To Me (=)
50. Ran$om (+6)
51. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (+1)
52. Taki Taki (-2)
53. You Need To Calm Down (+1)
54. You Say (-3)
55. Envy Me (-2)
56. Money In The Grave (+2)
57. Goodbyes (+9)
58. Con Calma (-3)
59. Beer Never Broke My Heart (=)
60. when the party’s over (-3)
61. Someone You Loved (+6)
62. Murder on My Mind (-2)
63. Act Up (-2)
64. The London (+1)
65. I Like It (-3)
66. Leave Me Alone (-3)
67. Breathin (-3)
68. The Git Up (+3)
69. Close Friends (-1)
70. bury a friend (-1)
71. Baby Shark (-1)
72. Worth It (=)
73. Trip (=)
74.  Swervin (=)
75. Rumor (=)
76. Knockin' Boots (+1)
77. Tequila (-1)
78. Look What God Gave Her (-1)
79. Clout (=)
80. Good as You (=)
81. Love Lies (=)
82. Shotta Flow (=)
83. Talk You Out Of It (=)
84. Beautiful People (+4)

Estimated Cutoff - 1500 

85. Panini (+11) - WA: 1
86. Eyes on You (-2)
87. Robbery (-2)
88. All To Myself (+3) - WA: 2, WL: 1
89. Beautiful (-3)
90. Never Really Over (-3)
91. GIRL (-2)
92. Walk Me Home (-2)
93. Go Loko (+6) - WA: 4, WL: 1
94. Here Tonight (-2)
95. All I Want For Christmas is You (-2)
96. This Is It (-2)
97. EARFQUAKE (-2)
98. Miss Me More (-1)
99. Girls Need Love (-1)
100. Put a Date On It (=)

111. Rearview Town (+7) - WA: 7, WL: 4
112. Press (+5) - WA: 7, WL: 5
115. My Type (NEW) - WA: 4
119. Easier (+2) - WA: 8, WL: 4
123. Trampoline (NEW) - WA: 5

[rimetm]

September 21, 2019 - 44/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

[nathanalbright]

Looks like Panini, All To Myself, and Beautiful People would all likely clinch next week, and Go Loko wouldn't be far off, especially in the without 11/24 category. This is shaping up to be a really interesting 90-100, I have to say.

[Deleted]

I hope Go Loko doesn't knock out Tequila from making the list proper. Thank god at least All To Myself seems somewhat safe.

[n13l5]

Sept 17, 2019 15:25:15 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Sept 17, 2019 15:20:23 GMT -5 GPMB said:

what happened now...

Pretty much all the charts but the main one (and I think artist and BB200) are now locked and you need to pay a monthly subscription to view them.

Thats too bad.

At least it still can be seen for free here

(and the chart histories of songs have nice graphs here)

acharts.co/us_singles_top_100/2019/38

[Deleted]

I calculated the 2019 year end list if everything on the charts stayed the same. The points are based off of fhas/rimetm's predictions.

1) Old Town Road 1734300

2) Sunflower 1386870

3) Without Me 1153240

4) Wow. 1025870

5) Bad Guy 1014610
6) Talk 927410
7) Sucker 857740
8) Happier 855460
9) 7 Rings 851460
10) Truth Hurts 815220
11) Sicko Mode 794310
12) High Hopes 779140
13) Dancing With A Stranger 750250
14) I Don't Care 731830
15) Senorita 731420
16) Thank U, Next 698820
17) Eastside 620490
18) Going Bad 610540
19) Shallow 597800
20) No Guidance 594060
21) Better 568740
22) Goodbyes 561800
23) Suge 560900
24) Ran$om 543860
25) Sweet But Psycho 542980
26) Girls Like You 517300
27) If I Can't Have You 513280
28) Middle Child 508720
29) Someone You Loved 490810
30) Drip Too Hard 473500
31) Speechless 466040
32) Pop Out 430910
33) Money In The Grave 419950
34) You Need To Calm Down 417570
35) Hey Look Ma, I Made It 388280
36) Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I'm Bored 376720
37) Please Me 373910
38) Better Now 366820
39) Zeze 366070
40) Look Back At It 365510
41) Youngblood 364480
42) Beer Never Broke My Heart 361630
43) Money 354560
44) A Lot 352790
45) Panini 352520
46) Me! 347820
47) The Git Up 347250
48) The London 347050
49) Beautiful Crazy 340990
50) Circles 332050
51) Thotiana 327980
52) MIA 323770
53) Knockin' Boots 321750
54) Whiskey Glasses 318090
55) Beautiful People 317400
56) Be Alright 313260
57) God's Country 310280
58) Pure Water 306000
59) Envy Me 305190
60) Close To Me 298440
61) You Say 293800
62) Lucid Dreams 290920
63) Wake Up In The Sky 285010
64) Mo Bamba 280420
65) Con Calma 276050
66) Taki Taki 270450
67) Murder On My Mind 263880
68) When The Party's Over 263330
69) My Type 260100
70) Act Up 255740
71) Trampoline 247530
72) Bury A Friend 240670
73) I Like It 238540
74) Boyfriend 236930
75) Baby Shark 233990
76) Cash s**t 232970
77) Baby 229090
78) Worth It 228740
79) Close Friends 226840
80) Leave Me Alone 226390
81) How Do You Sleep? 220290
82) Swervin 217700
83) Only Human 217520
84) Breathin 212980
85) Hot Girl Summer 209200
86) One Thing Right 206230
87) Clout 199930
88) Rumor 199690
89) Look What God Gave Her 195810
90) Good As You 193580
91) Shotta Flow 186890
92) All To Myself 181680
93) Eyes On You 178400
94) China 177390
95) Trip 177180
96) Go Loko 173600
97) Tequila 173490
98) Talk You Out Of It 173350
99) Lover 171990
100) Otro Trago 170940
- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -
101) This Is It 170870
102) Walk Me Home 170610
103) Press 169890
104) Robbery 167880
105) GIRL 166850
106) Callaita 164860
107) Love Lies 163620
108) Here Tonight 162220
109) Girl Like You 161290

110) Never Really Over 158270

PS: I just want to mention that there are some songs that rimetm has not calculated that could potentially scrape the bottom of the list.

I think it's pretty safe to say the cutoff will be low this year. I personally still think Tequila will be the song at #100 factoring in the sentence above.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

@delphox actually did what I was supposed to do right now Thanks for that! But, I would prefer for "Talk You Out Of It" to miss.

EDIT: I was a bit confused when I saw "High Hopes" with below 800,000 points, but I found out that @delphox followed the "without 11-24" predictions. Me, on the other hand, includes the 11-24 chart, which I would eventually post later.

[Deleted]

Sept 18, 2019 4:50:22 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

@delphox actually did what I was supposed to do right now Thanks for that! But, I would prefer for "Talk You Out Of It" to miss.

EDIT: I was a bit confused when I saw "High Hopes" with below 800,000 points, but I found out that @delphox followed the "without 11-24" predictions. Me, on the other hand, includes the 11-24 chart, which I would eventually post later.

The only reason I'm rooting for Talk You Out Of It is because it would break the record for lowest peaking song to make a year end list. The songs I'm really rooting for are Tequila and This Is It, although the former already made last year's list and the latter's chances are very low.

 

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Same as @delphox's post earlier, but counting the 11-24 chart week:

1. OLD TOWN ROAD – 1,734,300
2. SUNFLOWER – 1,403,070
3. WITHOUT ME – 1,259,690
4. WOW. – 1,025,870
5. BAD GUY – 1,014,610
6. TALK – 954,410
7. HAPPIER – 895,710
8. SUCKER – 857,740
9. 7 RINGS – 851,460
10. SICKO MODE – 824,060
11. TRUTH HURTS – 815,220
12. HIGH HOPES – 802,790
13. DANCING WITH A STRANGER – 750,250
14. THANK U, NEXT – 745,770
15. I DON’T CARE – 731,830
16. SENORITA – 731,420
17. EASTSIDE – 637,000
18. SHALLOW – 613,380
19. GOING BAD – 610,540
20. NO GUIDANCE – 594,060
21. BETTER – 579,320
22. GOODBYES – 561,800
23. SUGE – 560,900
24. RANSOM – 543,860
25. GIRLS LIKE YOU – 543,340
26. SWEET BUT PSYCHO – 542,980
27. IF I CAN’T HAVE YOU – 513,280
28. MIDDLE CHILD – 508,720
29. DRIP TOO HARD – 495,950
30. SOMEONE YOU LOVED – 490,810
31. SPEECHLESS – 478,360
32. POP OUT – 430,910
33. MONEY IN THE GRAVE – 419,950
34. YOU NEED TO CALM DOWN – 417,570
35. BETTER NOW – 389,020
36. ZEZE – 388,660
37. HEY LOOK MA, I MADE IT – 388,280
38. YOUNGBLOOD – 385,760
39. BREAK UP WITH YOUR GIRLFRIEND, I’M BORED – 376,720
40. PLEASE ME – 373,910
41. MONEY – 372,820
42. LOOK BACK AT IT – 365,510
43. BEER NEVER BROKE MY HEART – 361,650
44. A LOT – 352,790
45. PANINI – 352,520
46. ME! – 347,820
47. THE GIT UP – 347,250
48. THE LONDON – 347,050
49. BEAUTIFUL CRAZY – 340,990
50. MIA – 340,830
51. CIRCLES – 332,050
52. THOTIANA – 327,980
53. KNOCKIN BOOTS – 321,750
54. BE ALRIGHT – 319,770
55. WHISKEY GLASSES – 318,090
56. BEAUTIFUL PEOPLE – 317,400
57. LUCID DREAMS – 316,390
58. GOD’S COUNTRY – 310,280
59. PURE WATER – 306,000
60. ENVY ME – 305,190
61. MO BAMBA – 304,310
62. WAKE UP IN THE SKY – 302,700
63. YOU SAY – 302,080
64. CLOSE TO ME – 298,440
65. TAKI TAKI – 289,030
66. CON CALMA – 276,050
67. WHEN THE PARTY’S OVER – 272,400
68. MURDER ON MY MIND – 263,880
69. MY TYPE – 260,100
70. ACT UP – 255,740
71. I LIKE IT – 253,350
72. ALL TO MYSELF – 248,160
73. TRAMPOLINE – 247,530
74. BURY A FRIEND – 240,670
75. LEAVE ME ALONE – 239,130
76. BOYFRIEND – 236,930
77. CLOSE FRIENDS – 236,090
78. BABY SHARK – 233,990
79. CASH S**T – 232,970
80. BREATHIN – 232,840
81. BABY – 229,090
82. WORTH IT – 228,740
83. HOW DO YOU SLEEP? – 220,290
84. SWERVIN – 217,700
85. ONLY HUMAN – 217,520
86. GO LOKO – 215,200
87. HOT GIRL SUMMER – 209,200
88. ONE THING RIGHT – 206,230
89. CLOUT – 199,930
90. RUMOR – 199,690
91. OTRO TRAGO – 197,850
92. LOOK WHAT GOD GAVE HER – 195,810
93. PRESS – 195,730
94. TRIP – 194,290
95. GOOD AS YOU – 193,580
96. CALLAITA – 187,600
97. SHOTTA FLOW – 186,890
98. TEQUILA – 186,120
99. LOVE LIES – 180,600
100. EYES ON YOU – 178,400
101. CHINA – 177,390
102. TALK YOU OUT OF IT – 173,350
103. LOVER – 171,990
104. THIS IS IT – 170,870
105. WALK ME HOME – 170,610
106. BEAUTIFUL – 168,810
107. ROBBERY – 167,880
108. GIRL – 166,000
109. HERE TONIGHT – 162,220
110. GIRL LIKE YOU – 161,290
111. NEVER REALLY OVER – 158,780
112. MISS ME MORE – 158,270
113. HERE WITH ME – 156,880
114. PUT A DATE ON IT – 154,910
115. EARFQUAKE – 153,770
116. GIRLS NEED LOVE – 153,540
117. BACKIN’ IT UP – 152,650
118. NATURAL – 151,420
119. UPROAR – 150,950
120. MIXED PERSONALITIES – 147,170
121. COOL – 145,700
122. WHO DO YOU LOVE – 144,050
123. ALL I WANT FOR CHRISTMAS IS YOU – 137,900
124. THIS FEELING – 135,970
125. CROSS ME – 111,560

If "Tequila" as the song within the cut-off ends at #100, it would need 2 songs passing the cut-off (China and Lover are likely)

[Deleted]

Sept 18, 2019 6:10:16 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Same as @delphox 's post earlier, but counting the 11-24 chart week:

I just realized there is a difference between your calculations and mine (other than the November 24th thing). You calculate all songs still charting as if they stayed in their respective positions for the rest of the year, even those that will go recurrent before that (such as All To Myself, Go Loko, Otro Trago, Press & Callaita) Meanwhile I just calculate them with the weeks they have left before they go recurrent. Not saying you calculated them incorrectly, since our calculations are just rough estimates anyways (it was just an interesting observation I found).

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Sept 18, 2019 6:30:20 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Sept 18, 2019 6:10:16 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Same as @delphox 's post earlier, but counting the 11-24 chart week:

I just realized there is a difference between your calculations and mine (other than the November 24th thing). You calculate all songs still charting as if they stayed in their respective positions for the rest of the year, even those that will go recurrent before that (such as All To Myself, Go Loko, Otro Trago, Press & Callaita) Meanwhile I just calculate them with the weeks they have left before they go recurrent. Not saying you calculated them incorrectly, since our calculations are just rough estimates anyways (it was just an interesting observation I found).

I also want to point out in yours that you had "Bad Guy" above "Wow.", but the points has "Wow." over "Bad Guy".

[Deleted]

Sept 18, 2019 6:58:35 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Sept 18, 2019 6:30:20 GMT -5 @delphox said:

I just realized there is a difference between your calculations and mine (other than the November 24th thing). You calculate all songs still charting as if they stayed in their respective positions for the rest of the year, even those that will go recurrent before that (such as All To Myself, Go Loko, Otro Trago, Press & Callaita) Meanwhile I just calculate them with the weeks they have left before they go recurrent. Not saying you calculated them incorrectly, since our calculations are just rough estimates anyways (it was just an interesting observation I found).

I also want to point out in yours that you had "Bad Guy" above "Wow.", but the points has "Wow." over "Bad Guy".

Whoops, I didn't catch that, thanks for reminding me.

[kingscouser]

Any Predictions On The Decade End Chart? Im Really Hoping Old Town Road Knocks Girls Like You Out The Top 5. Im Really Annoyed That Its Even That High.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Sept 18, 2019 8:36:05 GMT -5 kingscouser said:

Any Predictions On The Decade End Chart? Im Really Hoping Old Town Road Knocks Girls Like You Out The Top 5. Im Really Annoyed That Its Even That High.

I think there's a chance, only If OTR spends like 3-4 weeks in the top 10...and it needs to be in the top 15/20 till the end of November.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Thanks to oldbloke @ UKMix:

CHART YEAR: BILLBOARD 200 WEEK 44

Rank TITLE Artist Est. EAS
1 WHEN WE ALL FALL ASLEEP WHERE DO WE GO Billie Eilish 1,703,000
2 THANK U NEXT Ariana Grande 1,614,000
3 A STAR IS BORN (OST) Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper 1,509,000
4 BEERBONGS AND BENTLEYS Post Malone 1,354,000
5 CHAMPIONSHIPS Meek Mill 1,347,000
6 SCORPION Drake 1,300,000
7 ASTROWORLD Travis Scott 1,267,000
8 BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (OST) Queen 1,155,000
9 LOVER Taylor Swift 1,149,000
10 HOODIE SZN A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie 1,145,000
11 THIS ONE'S FOR YOU Luke Combs 1,050,000
12 FREE SPIRIT Khalid 1,049,000
13 SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE Soundtrack 1,014,000
14 THE GREATEST SHOWMAN Soundtrack 969,000
15 I AM > I WAS 21 Savage 905,000
16 GOODBYE AND GOOD RIDDANCE Juice WRLD 883,000
17 DONT SMILE AT ME Billie Eilish 874,000
18 INVASION OF PRIVACY Cardi B 830,000
19 DRIP HARDER Lil Baby & Gunna 815,000
20 DEATH RACE FOR LOVE Juice WRLD 797,000
21 ? XXXTentacion 784,000
22 STONEY Post Malone 742,000
23 HAPPINESS BEGINS Jonas Brothers 742,000
24 DYING TO LIVE Kodak Black 721,000
25 SWEETENER Ariana Grande 706,000
26 DAN + SHAY Dan + Shay 687,000
27 CUZ I LOVE YOU Lizzo 685,000
28 LOOK UP CHILD Lauren Daigle 680,000
29 ÷ Ed Sheeran 680,000
30 HAMILTON: AN AMERICAN MUSICAL Original Cast 676,000
31 BABY ON BABY DaBaby 651,000
32 PRAY FOR THE WICKED Panic At The Disco 646,000
33 THA CARTER V Lil Wayne 645,000
34 ORIGINS Imagine Dragons 643,000
35 GREATEST HITS Queen 641,000
36 ELLA MAI Ella Mai 629,000
37 AMERICAN TEEN Khalid 628,000
38 DIAMONDS Elton John 627,000
39 EXPERIMENT Kane Brown 622,000
40 STREET GOSSIP Lil Baby 622,000
41 X 100PRE Bad Bunny 615,000
42 SHAWN MENDES Shawn Mendes 591,000
43 NOT ALL HEROES WEAR CAPES Metro Boomin 584,000
44 MAP OF THE SOUL: PERSONA BTS 552,000
45 NO.6 (COLLABORATIONS PROJECT) Ed Sheeran 538,000
46 TRAVELLER Chris Stapleton 537,000
47 EVOLVE Imagine Dragons 530,000
48 KAMIKAZE Eminem 529,000
49 FUTURE HNDRXX PRESENTS: THE WIZRD Future 506,000
50 A LOVE LETTER TO YOU 3 Trippie Redd 501,000
51 DRIP OR DROWN 2 Gunna 499,000
52 VICTORY LAP Nipsey Hussle 496,000
53 HOLLYWOOD'S BLEEDING Post Malone 489,000
54 REALER YoungBoy Never Broke Again 488,000
55 DAMN. Kendrick Lamar 485,000
56 DUMMY BOY 6ix9ine 482,000
57 7 (EP) Lil Nas X 482,000
58 INDIGO Chris Brown 480,000
59 COSMIC Bazzi 475,000
60 17 XXXTentacion 474,000
61 TRENCH Twenty One Pilots 472,000
62 LEGEND Bob Marley & the Wailers 469,000
63 LUV IS RAGE 2 Lil Uzi Vert 466,000
64 GREATEST HITS I II & III: THE PLATINUM COLLECTION Queen 463,000
65 FATHER OF ASAHD DJ Khaled 456,000
66 CURTAIN CALL: THE HITS Eminem 455,000
67 REPUTATION Taylor Swift 454,000
68 REARVIEW TOWN Jason Aldean 451,000
69 VIEWS Drake 446,000
70 CULTURE II Migos 445,000
71 CHRONICLE:THE 20 GREATEST HITS Creedence Clearwater Revival 444,000
72 HARDER THAN EVER Lil Baby 444,000
73 FATHER OF 4 Offset 443,000
74 GREATEST HITS Journey 443,000
75 TAKE CARE Drake 443,000
76 KANE BROWN Kane Brown 435,000
77 SWIMMING Mac Miller 433,000
78 IGOR Tyler The Creator 426,000
79 LOVE ME NOW Tory Lanez 416,000
80 QUEEN Nicki Minaj 415,000
81 GOLDEN HOUR Kacey Musgraves 411,000
82 H.E.R. H.E.R. 409,000
83 MOANA Soundtrack 408,000
84 DELTA Mumford & Sons 407,000
85 MORE LIFE Drake 405,000
86 I AM YOU YNW Melly 398,000
87 PERCEPTION NF 394,000
88 DREAMVILLE & J COLE: REVENGE OF THE DREAMERS III Various 393,000
89 CAMILA Camila Cabello 387,000
90 RED PILL BLUES Maroon 5 386,000
91 RUMOURS Fleetwood Mac 384,000
92 2014 FOREST HILLS DRIVE J Cole 382,000
93 LOVE YOURSELF: ANSWER BTS 382,000
94 LIFE CHANGES Thomas Rhett 380,000
95 GREATEST HITS 2Pac 379,000
96 STOKELEY Ski Mask The Slump God 376,000
97 CTRL SZA 370,000
98 STARBOY The Weeknd 370,000
99 THE ESSENTIAL Billy Joel 369,000
100 BAD HABITS NAV 369,000
101 NIGHT VISIONS Imagine Dragons 368,000
102 THE ESSENTIAL Michael Jackson 366,000
103 ABBEY ROAD Beatles 357,000
104 LOVE Michael Buble 357,000
105 24K MAGIC Bruno Mars 356,000
106 FEED THE STREETS II Roddy Ricch 355,000
107 SKINS XXXTentacion 354,000
108 X Ed Sheeran 352,000
109 CAN'T SAY I AIN'T COUNTRY Florida Georgia Line 351,000
110 YOUNGBLOOD 5 Seconds Of Summer 350,000
111 IF I KNOW ME Morgan Wallen 350,000
112 UNTIL DEATH CALL MY NAME YoungBoy Never Broke Again 350,000
113 EXPECTATIONS Bebe Rexha 349,000
114 CHRISTMAS Michael Buble 344,000
115 BLURRYFACE Twenty One Pilots 339,000
116 1 Beatles 339,000
117 1989 Taylor Swift 337,000
118 WE ALL SHINE YNW Melly 336,000
119 GIRL Maren Morris 335,000
120 GOOD KID M.A.A.D CITY Kendrick Lamar 334,000
121 KOD J Cole 334,000
122 GREATEST HITS Bob Seger & 6he Silver Bullet Band 332,000
123 BIRDS IN THE TRAP SING MCKNIGHT Travis Scott 329,000
124 SO MUCH FUN Young Thug 323,000
125 BEAUTY BEHIND THE MADNESS The Weeknd 323,000
126 FRIENDS KEEP SECRETS (EP) Benny Blanco 320,000
127 ANTI Rihanna 319,000
128 SUNCITY Khalid 315,000
129 HURTS 2B HUMAN P!nk 313,000
130 CRY PRETTY Carrie Underwood 313,000
131 FEAR INOCULUM Tool 308,000
132 THRILLER Michael Jackson 306,000
133 BACK IN BLACK AC/DC 304,000
134 THEIR GREATEST HITS 1971-1975 Eagles 302,000
135 BRETT YOUNG Brett Young 298,000
136 GREATEST HITS SO FAR... Zac Brown Band 295,000
137 GREATEST HITS Notorious B.I.G. 295,000
138 IN THE LONELY HOUR Sam Smith 294,000
139 DNA Backstreet Boys 291,000
140 CALIFORNIA SUNRISE Jon Pardi 289,000
141 FORTNITE EXTENDED SET Marshmello 288,000
142 GREATEST HITS Guns N'Roses 284,000
143 DIE A LEGEND Polo G 282,000
144 EVIL GENIUS Gucci Mane 281,000
145 LUCA BRASI 3 Kevin Gates 280,000
146 THE BEATLES (WHITE ALBUM) Beatles 280,000
147 DIE LIT Playboi Carti 279,000
148 THE SEARCH NF 277,000
149 PRESENT...WRLD ON DRUGS Future & Juice WRLD 275,000
150 HOMECOMING: THE LIVE ALBUM Beyonce 271,000
151 HOPELESS FOUNTAIN KINGDOM Halsey 269,000
152 NOTHING WAS THE SAME Drake 267,000
153 21 Adele 258,000
154 GREATEST HITS Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers 256,000
155 NEVERMIND Nirvana 253,000
156 GIRL CODE City Girls 253,000
157 BALLADS 1 Joji 252,000
158 LIFE'S A TRIP Trippie Redd 252,000
159 CHRISTMAS IS HERE Pentatonix 251,000
160 NORTHSBEST Lil Mosey 249,000
161 CENTER POINT ROAD Thomas Rhett 245,000
162 CRASH TALK ScHoolboy Q 244,000
163 BLACK PANTHER: THE ALBUM Soundtrack 242,000
164 HEARTBREAK ON A FULL MOON Chris Brown 241,000
165 CONFESSIONS OF A DANGEROUS MIND Logic 234,000
166 50 NUMBER ONES George Strait 233,000
167 GREATEST HITS Red Hot Chili Peppers 232,000
168 A DECADE OF DESTRUCTION Five Finger Death Punch 230,000
169 DOO-WOPS AND HOOLIGANS Bruno Mars 228,000
170 AURA Ozuna 228,000
171 4RESPECT 4FREEDOM 4LOYALTY 4WHATIMPORTANT YoungBoy Never Broke Again 225,000
172 DANGEROUS WOMAN Ariana Grande 224,000
173 SHELBY Lil Skies 222,000
174 FEVER Megan Thee Stallion 222,000
175 ALADDIN (2019) Soundtrack 222,000
176 BLONDE Frank Ocean 220,000
177 PERFECT 10 Mustard 218,000
178 METALLICA Metallica 216,000
179 THE PREQUEL (EP) Luke Combs 215,000
180 LIFE OF A DARK ROSE Lil Skies 214,000
181 THE BIG DAY Chance The Rapper 214,000
182 LAST DAY OF SUMMER Summer Walker 213,000
183 THE VERY BEST OF:SOUNDS OF SUMMER Beach Boys 208,000
184 MUDBOY Sheck Wes 208,000
185 MERRY CHRISTMAS Mariah Carey 208,000
186 FANOUS CRYP Blueface 207,000
187 FATHER OF THE BRIDE Vampire Weekend 206,000
188 QUAVO HUNCHO Quavo 205,000
189 SIGNED TO THE STREETS 3 Lil Durk 204,000
190 DIVINELY UNINSPIRED TO A HELLISH EXTENT Lewis Capaldi 201,000
191 A PENTATONIX CHRISTMAS Pentatonix 200,000
192 CARE PACKAGE Drake 199,000
193 RELOADED: 20 #1 HITS Blake Shelton 195,000
194 COME OVER WHEN YOU'RE SOBER PART 2 Lil Peep 195,000
195 HOT ROCKS 1964-1971 Rolling Stones 193,000
196 WASTELAND BABY Hozier 193,000
197 FREUDIAN Daniel Caesar 191,000
198 DUA LIPA Dua Lipa 189,000
199 4REAL 4REAL YG 187,000
200 ILLUMINATE Shawn Mendes 186,000

[rockgolf]

Sept 17, 2019 15:25:15 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Sept 17, 2019 15:20:23 GMT -5 GPMB said:

what happened now...

Pretty much all the charts but the main one (and I think artist and BB200) are now locked and you need to pay a monthly subscription to view them.

Please keep in mind: Billboard is a business, not a public service. They have no obligation to make all their work freely available. If this keeps them in business longer, I'm all for it.

[Deleted]

Sept 18, 2019 11:19:07 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Sept 17, 2019 15:25:15 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Pretty much all the charts but the main one (and I think artist and BB200) are now locked and you need to pay a monthly subscription to view them.

Please keep in mind: Billboard is a business, not a public service. They have no obligation to make all their work freely available. If this keeps them in business longer, I'm all for it.

Fair point, business is business in the end of the day, even if people don't like the change.

[rockgolf]

At least PULSE is still free.

My year end estimates including the September 21, 2019 chart. The Last Week figures are actually from 2 weeks ago. Sorry.

I'm beginning to believe that the cut-off will be less than 1100 points to make my year end. I can't see 16 songs still on the chart (or to come) that will break that number.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

All I Want For Christmas for the #100

[spicymapping]

It could be 16 -

Panini, My Type, Trampoline, Boyfriend, HGS, Cash s**t and Baby are the obvious ones, Circles and Lover may be late but they have a good shot, Otro Trago & China are prob good too, All To Myself & Eyes On You are debatable as to if they are locked already, OTR & Only Human Have around a 50% chance and that leaves 1, and there are tons of possibilities (especially if we go to the end of November): AIWFCIY, On Chill, Good As Hell, Hot, TOTDMIBH, Time, Motivation, DCMA and Wish Wish could all make it if all plays out right for them.

[iggyamo]

I definitely feel like there should be a recurrence rule for the year end, although it should be geared less to older songs becoming popular now and more towards holiday songs. The fact that AIWFCIY will more than likely reach the point where it’ll hit the year end list every year doesn’t feel right and should be limited by probably doing a chart restriction on holiday songs that are a certain amount of years old, like maybe 3-5 years old

[Deleted]

I hope Good As Hell doesn't get caught between years.

[inverse]

One song that could make a play is Memories by Maroon 5. It might be close it'll get 8 weeks (or maybe 9 if billboard decided to be weird and go dec 1 - nov 30) but if they're all around 10 that should be enough

[GPMB]

Sept 19, 2019 8:19:59 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

It could be 16 -

Panini, My Type, Trampoline, Boyfriend, HGS, Cash s**t and Baby are the obvious ones, Circles and Lover may be late but they have a good shot, Otro Trago & China are prob good too, All To Myself & Eyes On You are debatable as to if they are locked already, OTR & Only Human Have around a 50% chance and that leaves 1, and there are tons of possibilities (especially if we go to the end of November): AIWFCIY, On Chill, Good As Hell, Hot, TOTDMIBH, Time, Motivation, DCMA and Wish Wish could all make it if all plays out right for them.

i had to do a double take when you referred to One Thing Right as OTR because the only thing I’ve seen that used as an acronym for is Old Town Road lol

[nathanalbright]

Sept 19, 2019 13:31:31 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Sept 19, 2019 8:19:59 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

It could be 16 -

Panini, My Type, Trampoline, Boyfriend, HGS, Cash s**t and Baby are the obvious ones, Circles and Lover may be late but they have a good shot, Otro Trago & China are prob good too, All To Myself & Eyes On You are debatable as to if they are locked already, OTR & Only Human Have around a 50% chance and that leaves 1, and there are tons of possibilities (especially if we go to the end of November): AIWFCIY, On Chill, Good As Hell, Hot, TOTDMIBH, Time, Motivation, DCMA and Wish Wish could all make it if all plays out right for them.

i had to do a double take when you referred to One Thing Right as OTR because the only thing I’ve seen that used as an acronym for is Old Town Road lol

I had the same reaction.  I was like, OTR is definitely going to make the YE as #1.   I was also a bit puzzled as to why Spicymapping said that Panini was an obvious one to fill up one of those 16 slots when it already shows on the chart as having clinched the YE even as it makes its push for the top 10.

[GPMB]

Sept 19, 2019 12:23:03 GMT -5 inverse said:

One song that could make a play is Memories by Maroon 5. It might be close it'll get 8 weeks (or maybe 9 if billboard decided to be weird and go dec 1 - nov 30) but if they're all around 10 that should be enough

or it could fall victim to the Jumpman/24K Magic/Drip Too Hard effect, which honestly would be preferable to me because I hate Maroon 5 and don’t think the new song will be any sort of exception to that rule

[nathanalbright]

Sept 19, 2019 13:38:25 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Sept 19, 2019 12:23:03 GMT -5 inverse said:

One song that could make a play is Memories by Maroon 5. It might be close it'll get 8 weeks (or maybe 9 if billboard decided to be weird and go dec 1 - nov 30) but if they're all around 10 that should be enough

or it could fall victim to the Jumpman/24K Magic/Drip Too Hard effect, which honestly would be preferable to me because I hate Maroon 5 and don’t think the new song will be any sort of exception to that rule

I personally think we ought to see if and where it debuts on the charts before we speculate on it making the YE in only 8 weeks.  Plenty of songs have been hyped up here and then grossly disappointed with their debuts and/or longevity.

[Deleted]

I calculated the points for Robbery, GIRL & Beautiful since some predictors here believe they do have a slight chance.

Robbery has 1677 points, which in my eyes means it will definitely miss (for me a song needs at least 1700 points to stand a chance).

GIRL has 1709 points, which means its chances are very low, but nevertheless existent.

Beautiful has either 1718 or 1590 points, depending on November 24th's inclusion or not. It needs that week to even stand a small chance.

Since GIRL and Beautiful have more than 1700 points, I will list them in the future since it wouldn't be fair to say they have no chance.