Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[GPMB]

the fact that Go Loko will probably drop out next week and yet still have a chance to make the year end with a #49 peak and only 19 weeks is just surreal to me

also it appears that Knockin' Boots is this year's Come With Me Now, right down to the #31 peak and having 21 weeks on the Hot 100 (next week will likely be its last, it's dropping HARD on radio) as well as their biggest weeks being in the late summer of their respective year. now all KB needs is to get the #88 spot on the year end, which i don't think will happen, but we'll see

[Groovy]

Going into this year, I thought Ariana Grande was gonna hold the number one and two positions on the YE charts with thank u, next and 7 rings, boy was I wrong

[nathanalbright]

Sept 23, 2019 17:38:34 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Going into this year, I thought Ariana Grande was gonna hold the number one and two positions on the YE charts with thank u, next and 7 rings, boy was I wrong

Admittedly, it's hard to see the effects of massive longevity (Without Me, Sunflower) or out of left-field success (Old Town Road) coming.    

[Deleted]

According to Billboard's chart history, Go Loko has dropped out. That means its chances of making the year end are very slim.

Here's the link to the song's chart history: www.billboard.com/music/yg/chart-history/hot-100/song/1135093

PS: Don't take my words as fact because chart history might have not updated the song yet, although other songs already were.

[Groovy]

Sept 23, 2019 17:48:40 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Sept 23, 2019 17:38:34 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Going into this year, I thought Ariana Grande was gonna hold the number one and two positions on the YE charts with thank u, next and 7 rings, boy was I wrong

Admittedly, it's hard to see the effects of massive longevity (Without Me, Sunflower) or out of left-field success (Old Town Road) coming.    

Something similar happened in 2016, the year was dominated by Drake and the Chainsmokers yet the highest charting songs were by Justin Bieber.

[tallen2001]

I’d love if On Chill made the YE but I feel like it’s almost too late for it.

[Naos]

Sept 23, 2019 20:36:28 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

I’d love if On Chill made the YE but I feel like it’s almost too late for it.

Yeah, probably too late unless it becomes huge and continues on into 2020.

[Deleted]

Sept 23, 2019 20:36:28 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

I’d love if On Chill made the YE but I feel like it’s almost too late for it.

For On Chill to even have a chance, it needs to hit the top 20 in the next few weeks and stay there.

[Deleted]

Here is my updated tracking for this week on current charting songs that might potentially make the 2019 year end list in the future:

Songs That Will Lock Next Week:

-Panini

-Beautiful People

Songs That Will Be Locked In The Future:
-My Type
-Boyfriend

The total number of songs that are locked or will be locked in the future are 79. Here are the other songs that can still make it:

?) Knockin' Boots 2155 (+123)

79) Rumor 2012

- - - - - LOCKED (2000 Points) - - - - -

80) Clout 1991
81) Good As You 1968
82) Look What God Gave Her 1965
83) Trip 1952
84) Shotta Flow 1877

85) Tequila 1866

86) All To Myself 1842 (+78)

87) Love Lies 1803
88) Eyes On You 1795

89) This Is It 1774

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

90) Talk You Out Of It 1768
91) Walk Me Home 1733
92) Beautiful 1718
93) Go Loko 1710

94) GIRL 1709

- - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1700 Points) - - - - -

95) Rearview Town 1510 (+63)
96) Press 1494 (+65)
97) Trampoline 1449 (+130)
98) Cash s**t 1344 (+122)
99) Callaita 1321 (+90)
100) Otro Trago 1283 (+94)
101) One Thing Right 1230 (+110)
102) Only Human 1216 (+126)
103) The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home 1206 (+92)
104) Baby 1177 (+140)
105) How Do You Sleep? 1147 (+136)
106) China 982 (+105)
107) Lalala 978 (+95)
108) I Don't Know About You 941 (+117)
109) Hot Girl Summer 935 (+148)
110) Circles 794 (+223)
111) Time 761 (+109)
112) Lover 751 (+115)
113) Ballin’ 666 (+107)
114) Hot 637 (+125)
115) On Chill 630 (+129)
116) Motivation 537 (+102)
117) Good As Hell 462 (+114)

Dropouts:
Go Loko 1710 (Will probably miss the 2019 year end list.)
Easier 1428 (Will miss the 2019 year end list.)

Here is the projected cutoff if the week of November 24th, 2018 is not counted towards the 2019 year end list:

83) Shotta Flow 1877

84) All To Myself 1842 (+78)

85) Eyes On You 1795
86) Trip 1788
87) This Is It 1774
88) Talk You Out Of It 1768

89) Tequila 1742

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

90) Walk Me Home 1733

91) Go Loko 1710
92) GIRL 1709

Love Lies is at 1653 points and Beautiful is at 1590 points. Both will definitely not make the list in this scenario.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here are the projected calculated points for every song I tracked if they stayed in their same positions for the rest of the charting year:

?) Knockin' Boots 3139
?) Circles 2578
?) Trampoline 2489
?) Cash s**t 2320
?) Baby 2297
?) How Do You Sleep? 2235

?) Only Human 2224

?) Hot Girl Summer 2119

?) One Thing Right 2110
87) Rumor 2012
88) Clout 1991
89) Good As You 1968
90) Look What God Gave Her 1965
91) Trip 1952
92) Shotta Flow 1882
93) I Don’t Know About You 1877
94) Tequila 1866
95) All To Myself 1842
96) China 1822
97) Love Lies 1803
98) Eyes On You 1795

99) This Is It 1774

100) Callaita 1771

- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -

101) Talk You Out Of It 1768

102) The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home 1758

103) Press 1754

104) Otro Trago 1753

105) Lalala 1738
106) Walk Me Home 1733
107) Beautiful 1718
108) Go Loko 1710
109) GIRL 1709
110) Rearview Town 1699
?) Lover 1671
?) On Chill 1662
?) Hot 1637
?) Time 1633
?) Ballin’ 1522
?) Good As Hell 1374
?) Motivation 1353

Here's the same thing but the week of November 24th, 2018 is not counted towards the 2019 year end list:

91) Shotta Flow 1882

92) I Don’t Know About You 1877
93) All To Myself 1842
94) China 1822
95) Eyes On You 1795
96) Trip 1788

97) This Is It 1774

98) Callaita 1771

99) Talk You Out Of It 1768

100) The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home 1758

- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -

101) Press 1754

102) Otro Trago 1753

103) Tequila 1742

104) Lalala 1738
105) Walk Me Home 1733
106) Go Loko 1710
107) GIRL 1709
108) Rearview Town 1699

?) Love Lies 1653

?) Beautiful 1590

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here's also my opinion on each song's chances of making the 2019 year end list (only the ones that I tracked and are still charting):

Certain:
Knockin' Boots

Circles

Trampoline

Pretty Likely:

Cash s**t

Baby
How Do You Sleep?

Hot Girl Summer

Slightly Likely:

Only Human
One Thing Right

All To Myself

Toss Up:
China
Lover

Slightly Unlikely:
Otro Trago

Lalala

On Chill

Time

Pretty Unlikely:

I Don't Know About You

Callaita

Press

Hot

Ballin'

Good As Hell

No Chance:

The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home

Rearview Town
Motivation

[prosandcons]

How is it that One Thing Right is only at 52 when it’s selling so well? Why isn’t radio getting behind it? It’s a perfect radio song.

[lights]

[spicymapping]

ayy panini
TL, DR:
Locked: Panini
Added: Boyfriend, Cash s**t, Otro Trago, Callaita, Baby

1. Sunflower (=)
2. Without Me (=)
3. Old Town Road (=)
4. 7 Rings (=)
5. Happier (=)
6. Wow. (=)
7. bad guy (+1)
8. SICKO MODE (-1)
9. thank u, next (=)
10. High Hopes (=)
11. Sucker (=)
12. Talk (=)
13. Dancing With a Stranger (=)
14. Eastside (=)
15. Shallow (=)
16. Going Bad (=)
17. Truth Hurts (+4)
18. I Don't Care (+1)
19. Better (-2)
20. Girls Like You (-2)
21. Sweet But Psycho (-1)
22. MIDDLE CHILD (=)
23. Señorita (+1)
24. Drip Too Hard (-1)
25. Suge (=)
26. If I Can’t Have You (=)
27. Please Me (=)
28. ZEZE (=)
29. Better Now (=)
30. No Guidance (+3)
31. Youngblood (-1)
32. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored (-1)
33. Money (-1)
34. Speechless (=)
35. a lot (=)
36. Pop Out (+2)
37. MIA (-1)
38. Look Back At It (-1)
39. ME! (=)
40. Thotiana (=)
41. Beautiful Crazy (=)
42. God's Country (=)
43. Lucid Dreams (=)
44. Ran$om (+6)
45. Whiskey Glasses (-1)
46. Mo Bamba (-1)
47. Wake Up In The Sky (-1)
48. Be Alright (-1)
49. You Need To Calm Down (+4)
50. Pure Water (-2)
51. Goodbyes (+6)
52. Money In The Grave (+4)
53. Close To Me (-3)
54. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (-3)
55. Someone You Loved (+6)
56. Taki Taki (-4)
57. You Say (-3)
58. Envy Me (-3)
59. Beer Never Broke My Heart (=)
60. Con Calma (-2)
61. when the party’s over (-1)
62. The London (+2)
63. Murder on My Mind (-1)
64. Act Up (-1)
65. The Git Up (+3)
66. I Like It (-1)
67. Leave Me Alone (-1)
68. Breathin (-1)
69. Close Friends (=)
70. bury a friend (=)
71. Baby Shark (=)
72. Worth It (=)
73. Panini (+12)
74. Knockin' Boots (+2)
75. Beautiful People (+9)
76. Trip (-3)
77. Swervin (-3)
78. Rumor (-3)
79. Tequila (-2)
80. Look What God Gave Her (-2)
81. Clout (-2)
82. Good as You (-2)
83. Love Lies (-2)
84. Shotta Flow (-2)
85. Talk You Out Of It (-2)

Estimated Cutoff - 1500

86. All To Myself (+2) - WA: 1, WL: 0
87. Eyes on You (-1)
88. Robbery (-1)
89. Beautiful (=)
90. Never Really Over (=)
91. GIRL (=)
92. Walk Me Home (=)
93. Go Loko (=)
94. Here Tonight (=)
95. All I Want For Christmas is You (=)
96. This Is It (=)
97. EARFQUAKE (=)
98. Miss Me More (=)
99. Girls Need Love (=)
100. Put a Date On It (=)

104. My Type (+11) - WA: 3
107. Rearview Town (+4) - WA: 6, WL: 3
109. Press (+3) - WA: 6, WL: 4
113. Trampoline (+10) - WA: 4
122. Boyfriend (NEW) - WA: 3
125. Cash s**t (NEW) - WA: 6
128. Otro Trago (NEW) - WA: 8, WL: 5
130. Callaita (NEW) - WA: 8, WL: 5
133. Baby (NEW) - WA: 5

[GPMB]

rimetm would it be any if any interest for you to start tracking Lalala in your predictions this week?

[spicymapping]

Songs hold positions thing - please don't bully my formula for being special it just likes sunflowers okay?

1. Sunflower
2. Old Town Road
3. Without Me
4. Bad Guy
5. Wow.
6. Truth Hurts
7. 7 Rings
8. Happier
9. Sucker
10. Talk
11. SICKO MODE
12. thank u, next
13. High Hopes
14. Senorita
15. Dancing With a Stranger
16. I Don't Care
17. Eastside
18. Shallow
19. Going Bad
20. Suge
21. No Guidance
22. Better
23. Girls Like You
24. Sweet But Psycho
25. MIDDLE CHILD
26. Someone You Loved
27. If I Can't Have You
28. Ran$om
29. Drip Too Hard
30. Goodbyes
31.Speechless
32. Panini
33. Pop Out
34. You Need To Calm Down
35. Money In The Grave
36. Please Me
37. ZEZE
38. Better Now
39. Youngblood
40. BUWYG, IB
41. Money
42. The Git Up
43. Beer Never Broke My Heart
44. A Lot
45. MIA
46. The London
47. Look Back At It
48. ME!
49. Beautiful People
50. Thotiana
51. Beautiful Crazy
52. God's Country
53. Lucid Dreams
54. Whiskey Glasses
55. Mo Bamba
56. Wake Up In The Sky
57. Be Alright
58. Pure Water
59. Close To Me
60. Hey Look Ma, I Made It
61. Taki Taki
62. You Say
63. Knockin' Boots
64. Envy Me
65. Con Calma
66. When the Party's Over
67. Circles
68. Murder on My Mind
69. Act Up
70. Boyfriend
71. My Type
72. I Like It
73. Leave Me Alone
74. Breathin
75. Close Friends
76. Bury a Friend
77. Trampoline
78. Baby
79. Baby Shark
80. Hot Girl Summer
81. Worth It
82. How Do You Sleep?
83. Cash s**t
84. Trip
85. Swervin
86. Only Human
87. Rumor
88. Tequila
89. Look What God Gave Her
90. Clout
91. Good as You
92. Love Lies
93. Shotta Flow
94. Talk You Out of It
95. One Thing Right
96. All To Myself
97. Take What You Want
98. Eyes on You
99. Robbery
100. Press

[rimetm]

September 28, 2019 - 45/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

[GPMB]

songs that haven’t locked yet but are guaranteed to:
My Type
Trampoline
Cash Shit
Only Human
Baby
How Do You Sleep?
Boyfriend
Hot Girl Summer
Circles

possible:
One Thing Right
Lover
Hot (PLEASE LET THIS HAPPEN)

out of the question:
Press
Callaita
Otro Trago
Lalala

too early to tell:
Memories
whatever Adele puts out this year, if that even ends up being true at all

[FindingC7osure]

Love seeing your real points estimates, rimetm . Thank you so much for doing these!

One question though: "Panini" was #17 on Digital Sales this week while "Goodbyes" was #28. Does this mean that the ten songs between them each sold between 8.5k and 9k? That margin seems very small compared to the one between "Goodbyes" and "I Don't Care" (#30, 6k). Or is the margin only so small because of rounding? Thanks!

[reputainbow]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Spoiler}{Top 100}[] = 2019 Peak | Locked | Nearing/Most Likely | Slight Chance (for those not charting) | Currently Charting | Recurrent/Not Charting
1(=) Sunflower (Post Malone/Swae Lee) 5939 [1] (+358)
2(+1) Old Town Road (Lil Nas X/Billy Ray Cyrus) 5793 [1] (+490)
3(-1) Without Me (Halsey) 5767 [1] (+270)
4(=) 7 rings (Ariana Grande) 4540 [1] (+119)
5(+1) Wow. (Post Malone) 4506 [2] (+301)
6(-1) Happier (Marshmello/Bastille) 4400 [2]
7(+4) Bad Guy (Billie Eilish) 4040 [1] (+660)
8(-1) Sicko Mode (Travis Scott) 3959 [1]
9(-1) High Hopes (Panic! at the Disco) 3788 [4]
10(=) Sucker (Jonas Brothers) 3769 [1] (+342)
11(+1) Talk (Khalid) 3649 [3] (+408)
12(-3) thank u, next (Ariana Grande) 3589 [1]
13(+2) Dancing With a Stranger (Sam Smith/Normani) 3179 [7] (+288)
14(-1) Shallow (Lady Gaga/Bradley Cooper) 3033 [1]
15(-1) Going Bad (Meek Mill/Drake) 2910 [6]
16(=) Eastside (Benny Blanco/Halsey/Khalid) 2847 [9]
17(=) Better (Khalid) 2810 [8]
18(+7) Truth Hurts (Lizzo) 2799 [1] (+1000)
19(+3) I Don't Care (Ed Sheeran/Justin Bieber) 2658 [2] (+408)
20(-2) Sweet But Psycho (Ava Max) 2612 [10]
21(-2) MIDDLE CHILD (J. Cole) 2513 [4]
22(-2) Girls Like You (Maroon 5/Cardi B) 2472 [7]
23(-2) Drip Too Hard (Lil Baby/Yung Gunna) 2310 [8]
24(+12) Senorita (Shawn Mendes/Camila Cabello) 2300 [1] (+720)
25(+2) Suge (DaBaby) 2115 [7] (+322)
26(-3) Please Me (Cardi B/Bruno Mars) 1911 [3]
27(+7) Speechless (Dan + Shay) 1907 [24] (+246)
28(+10) If I Can't Have You (Shawn Mendes) 1853 [2] (+322)
29(-5) Look Back At It (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie) 1819 [27]
30(-4) ZEZE (Kodak Black/Travis Scott/Offset) 1798 [7]
31(+23) No Guidance (Chris Brown/Drake) 1789 [6] (+530)
32(-4) Better Now (Post Malone) 1782 [10]
33(-4) Youngblood (5 Seconds of Summer) 1764 [12]
34(-4) break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored (Ariana Grande) 1731 [2]
35(-4) A Lot (21 Savage) 1704 [12]
36(-4) Money (Cardi B) 1697 [13]
37(-4) Beautiful Crazy (Luke Combs) 1668 [21]
38(+10) Pop Out (Polo G/Lil Tjay) 1628 [11] (+268)
39(-4) MIA (Bad Bunny/Drake) 1623 [18]
40(+1) God's Country (Blake Shelton) 1620 [17] (+112)
41(+2) Whiskey Glasses (Morgan Wallen) 1604 [17] (+112)
42(-5) Pure Water (Mustard/Migos) 1559 [23]
43(-4) Be Alright (Dean Lewis) 1528 [23]
44(-4) Thotiana (Blueface) 1522 [8]
45(-3) Envy Me (Calboy) 1498 [31]
46(+3) ME! (Taylor Swift/Brendon Urie) 1497 [2] (+137)
47(+25) Ran$om (Lil Tecca) 1494 [4] (+580)
48(-4) You Say (Lauren Daigle) 1477 [29]
49(-4) Close to Me (Ellie Goulding/Diplo/Swae Lee) 1458 [24]
50(-4) Lucid Dreams (Juice WRLD) 1452 [5]
51(+4) Hey Look Ma, I Made It (Panic! At the Disco) 1396 [16] (+177)
52(+10) Beer Never Broke My Heart (Luke Combs) 1389 [21] (+256)
53(-6) Mo Bamba (Sheck Wes) 1363 [6]
54(+33) Goodbyes (Post Malone/Young Thug) 1359 [3] (+479)
55(+13) You Need to Calm Down (Taylor Swift) 1357 [2] (+406)
56(-6) Taki Taki (DJ Snake/Selena Gomez/Ozuna/Cardi B) 1350 [18]
57(-6) Wake Up In the Sky (Gucci Mane/Bruno Mars/Kodak Black) 1337 [11]
58(-6) Con Calma (Daddy Yankee/Katy Perry/Snow) 1335 [22]
59(+19) Someone You Loved (Lewis Capaldi) 1320 [4] (+448)
60(-7) Act Up (City Girls) 1320 [26]
61(+6) Money In the Grave (Drake/Rick Ross) 1295 [7] (+336)
62(+3) The London (Young Thug/J. Cole/Travis Scott) 1273 [12] (+283)
63(-7) I Like It (Cardi B/Bad Bunny/J Balvin) 1211 [24]
64(-7) Baby Shark (Pinkfong) 1189 [32]
65(-7) Bury a Friend (Billie Eilish) 1176 [14]
66(-7) Murder On My Mind (YNW Melly) 1168 [14]
67(-7) When the Party's Over (Billie Eilish) 1163 [29]
68(-7) Leave Me Alone (Flipp Dinero) 1157 [20]
69(+11) The Git Up (Blanco Brown) 1143 [14] (+309)
70(-7) Swervin (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie/6ix9ine) 1060 [38]
71(-7) Worth It (YK Osiris) 1043 [48]
72(+26) Panini (Lil Nas X) 1021 [5] (+370)
73(+11) Knockin' Boots (Luke Bryan) 1004 [31] (+260)
74(-8) Breathin (Ariana Grande) 988 [12]
75(-6) Clout (Offset/Cardi B) 944 [39]
76(NEW) Beautiful People (Ed Sheeran/Khalid) 943 [16]
77(-7) Close Friends (Lil Baby) 939 [47]
78(-7) Rumor (Lee Brice) 931 [25]
79(-6) Look What God Gave Her (Thomas Rhett) 911 [32]
80(-6) Tequila (Dan + Shay) 898 [29]
81(-6) Good as You (Kane Brown) 893 [36]
82(-6) Trip (Ella Mai) 887 [15]
83(-4) Love Lies (Khalid/Normani) 838 [19]
84(+5) Shotta Flow (NLE Choppa) 815 [36] (+106)
85(-4) Never Really Over (Katy Perry) 815 [15] (+7)
86(-4) Beautiful (Bazzi/Camila Cabello) 803 [26]
87(NEW) All to Myself (Dan + Shay) 779 [31]
88(-5) Eyes on You (Chase Rice) 779 [38]
89(NEW) My Type (Saweetie) 738 [21]
90(-5) Walk Me Home (P!nk) 737 [49]
91(-5) All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 729 [3]
92(-5) Robbery (Juice WRLD) 727 [27]
93(-5) Here With Me (Marshmello/CHVRCHES) 723 [31]
94(-3) Go Loko (YG/Tyga/Jon Z) 713 [49]
95(-5) EARFQUAKE (Tyler, the Creator) 697 [13]
96(-4) GIRL (Maren Morris) 677 [44]
97(-4) This Is It (Scotty McCreery) 676 [42]
98(-4) Backin' It Up (Pardison Fontaine/Cardi B) 669 [40]
99(-4) Natural (Imagine Dragons) 663 [20]
100(-4) Uproar (Lil Wayne) 662 [35]

[rimetm]

Sept 24, 2019 18:20:18 GMT -5 FindingC7osure said:

Love seeing your real points estimates, rimetm . Thank you so much for doing these!

One question though: "Panini" was #17 on Digital Sales this week while "Goodbyes" was #28. Does this mean that the ten songs between them each sold between 8.5k and 9k? That margin seems very small compared to the one between "Goodbyes" and "I Don't Care" (#30, 6k). Or is the margin only so small because of rounding? Thanks!

My estimates are assuming that Complete My Album effect reverberates primarily in the first 2 weeks of an album launch. Goodbyes' Digital Songs position is lower than its actual sales numbers because that chart gives negative sales if people use the CMA offer, while the Hot 100 ignores this. This, combined with the practice of novelty bundling of singles along with the double weight physical singles still have (for some reason), made Lover's first two weeks especially wonky to calculate, if you look back at them.

When it comes to these matters, kworb's numbers, which are based on proportional performance on iTunes, tend to be more reliable than the positions Billboard gives. Otherwise, I shift things around to match usually.

[Deleted]

I calculated the 2019 year end list if everything on the charts stayed the same. The points are based off of fhas/rimetm's predictions.

1) Old Town Road 1722610

2) Sunflower 1333500
3) Without Me 1153210
4) Bad Guy 1006340
5) Wow. 978890
6) Talk 912750
7) Happier 855460
8) 7 Rings 851460
9) Sucker 850920
10) Truth Hurts 815310
11) Sicko Mode 794310
12) High Hopes 779140
13) Dancing With A Stranger 746660
14) Senorita 724670
15) I Don't Care 723200
16) Thank U, Next 698820
17) Eastside 620490
18) Going Bad 610540
19) Shallow 597800
20) No Guidance 595870
21) Better 568740
22) Suge 552530
23) Sweet But Psycho 542980
24) Ran$om 540260
25) Girls Like You 517300
26) Someone You Loved 516890
27) Middle Child 508720
28) If I Can't Have You 502400
29) Goodbyes 487290
30) Drip Too Hard 473500
31) Speechless 472150
32) Pop Out 428490
33) Panini 426380
34) Money In The Grave 412300
35) You Need To Calm Down 398140
36) Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I'm Bored 376720
37) Please Me 373910
38) Better Now 366820
39) Zeze 366070
40) Look Back At It 365510
41) Youngblood 364480
42) Beer Never Broke My Heart 356680
43) Money 354560
44) A Lot 352790
45) Me! 347820
46) The Git Up 343740
47) Beautiful Crazy 340990
48) The London 340030
49) Thotiana 327980
50) MIA 323770
51) Beautiful People 322170
52) Whiskey Glasses 318090
53) Knockin' Boots 314100
54) Be Alright 313260
55) God's Country 310280
56) Pure Water 306000
57) Envy Me 305190
58) Close To Me 298440
59) You Say 293800
60) Lucid Dreams 290920
61) Wake Up In The Sky 285010
62) Hey Look Ma, I Made It 282710
63) Mo Bamba 280420
64) Circles 276720
65) Con Calma 276050
66) Taki Taki 270450
67) Murder On My Mind 263880
68) When The Party's Over 263330
69) Act Up 255740
70) My Type 253080
71) Trampoline 248530
72) Bury A Friend 240670
73) I Like It 238540
74) Boyfriend 238010
75) Baby Shark 233990
76) Cash s**t 232080
77) Worth It 228740
78) Close Friends 226840
79) Leave Me Alone 226390
80) Baby 225580
81) Only Human 222660
82) How Do You Sleep? 220930
83) Swervin 217700
84) Breathin 212980
85) One Thing Right 210470
86) Hot Girl Summer 203900
87) Clout 199930
88) Rumor 199690
89) Look What God Gave Her 195810
90) Good As You 193580
91) Shotta Flow 186890
92) All To Myself 180690
93) China 178840
94) Eyes On You 178400
95) Trip 177180
96) Take What You Want 175760
97) Tequila 173490
98) Talk You Out Of It 173350
99) This Is It 170870
100) Walk Me Home 170610
- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -
101) Otro Trago 170340
102) Callaita 169960
103) Go Loko 168400
104) Press 168340
105) Robbery 167880
106) Lover 167310
107) GIRL 166850
108) Lalala 164710
109) Hot 164380
110) Love Lies 163620

[FindingC7osure]

Sept 24, 2019 18:35:26 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Sept 24, 2019 18:20:18 GMT -5 FindingC7osure said:

Love seeing your real points estimates, rimetm . Thank you so much for doing these!

One question though: "Panini" was #17 on Digital Sales this week while "Goodbyes" was #28. Does this mean that the ten songs between them each sold between 8.5k and 9k? That margin seems very small compared to the one between "Goodbyes" and "I Don't Care" (#30, 6k). Or is the margin only so small because of rounding? Thanks!

My estimates are assuming that Complete My Album effect reverberates primarily in the first 2 weeks of an album launch. Goodbyes' Digital Songs position is lower than its actual sales numbers because that chart gives negative sales if people use the CMA offer, while the Hot 100 ignores this. This, combined with the practice of novelty bundling of singles along with the double weight physical singles still have (for some reason), made Lover's first two weeks especially wonky to calculate, if you look back at them.

When it comes to these matters, kworb's numbers, which are based on proportional performance on iTunes, tend to be more reliable than the positions Billboard gives. Otherwise, I shift things around to match usually.

Thank you for the explanation! I had completely forgotten about CMA. Do you mean to say that each physical single is counted as two sales, or are you referring to physical singles that are bundled with a digital download?

Also, is there a similar CMA effect for streaming, or does Billboard just weigh the types of streams differently to create their Streaming Songs chart? "Circles" was one position lower than "Señorita" on that chart, but it was streamed more.

[moonlite]

Sept 24, 2019 18:59:21 GMT -5 FindingC7osure said:

Sept 24, 2019 18:35:26 GMT -5 rimetm said:

My estimates are assuming that Complete My Album effect reverberates primarily in the first 2 weeks of an album launch. Goodbyes' Digital Songs position is lower than its actual sales numbers because that chart gives negative sales if people use the CMA offer, while the Hot 100 ignores this. This, combined with the practice of novelty bundling of singles along with the double weight physical singles still have (for some reason), made Lover's first two weeks especially wonky to calculate, if you look back at them.

When it comes to these matters, kworb's numbers, which are based on proportional performance on iTunes, tend to be more reliable than the positions Billboard gives. Otherwise, I shift things around to match usually.

Thank you for the explanation! I had completely forgotten about CMA. Do you mean to say that each physical single is counted as two sales, or are you referring to physical singles that are bundled with a digital download?

Also, is there a similar CMA effect for streaming, or does Billboard just weigh the types of streams differently to create their Streaming Songs chart? "Circles" was one position lower than "Señorita" on that chart, but it was streamed more.

Nah, there’s no CMA effect for Streaming Songs. Like you said, they weigh different types of streams differently. Tier 1 is Paid On Demand Streams, Tier 2 is Free/Ad-Supported On Demand Streams and Tier 3 is Programmed Streams

[GPMB]

wait holy shit what if Sunflower breaks the 52 week rule and makes 2020 YE

[Deleted]

Sept 24, 2019 19:54:14 GMT -5 GPMB said:

wait holy s**t what if Sunflower breaks the 52 week rule and makes 2020 YE

As much as I want this to happen, it would need to least 65-70 weeks in total to do so. 

[Naos]

Yeah, "Sunflower" is getting nowhere near 2020's year-end list.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Sept 24, 2019 19:54:14 GMT -5 GPMB said:

wait holy s**t what if Sunflower breaks the 52 week rule and makes 2020 YE

In a perfect world, this happens.

[spicymapping]

Yeah, there’s absolutely no way it survives the Christmas bomb

Also, since we’re obsessed with country’s success, here’s the biggest ranked.

0. Old Town Road
1. Speechless
2. Beautiful Crazy
3. God’s Country
4. Whiskey Glasses
5. Beer Never Broke My Heart
6. The Git Up
7. Knockin’ Boots
8. Rumor
9. Tequila
10. Look What God Gave Her
11. Good As You
12. Talk You Out of It
13. All To Myself
14. Eyes On You
15. GIRL
16. Here Tonight
17. This Is It
18. Miss Me More
19. Girl Like You
20. Rearview Town
21. Make It Sweet
22. Love Ain’t
23. Millionaire
24. Sixteen
25. Burning Man
26. Good Girl
27. The Ones That Didn’t Make It Back Home
28. She Got The Best of Me
29. One Thing Right
30. Night Shift
31. Some of It
32. Take It From Me
33. On My Way To You
34. Raised On Country
35. Down To The Honkeytonk
36. I Don’t Know About You
37, What Makes You Country
38. Drunk Me
39. Love Someone
40. Southbound

[Dadude#0839]

All of the country songs.. Speechless is still charting as well 37 weeks

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Year-End Predictions

1. Old Town Road by Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus
2. Sunflower (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse) by Post Malone and Swae Lee
3. Without Me by Halsey
4. Wow. by Post Malone
5. bad guy by Billie Eilish
6. Happier by Marshmello feat. Bastille
7. 7 rings by Ariana Grande
8. SICKO MODE by Travis Scott
9. Sucker by Jonas Brothers
10. High Hopes by Panic! at the Disco
11. Talk by Khalid
12. thank u, next by Ariana Grande
13. Truth Hurts by Lizzo
14. Dancing with a Stranger by Sam Smith and Normani
15. Señorita by Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello
16. I Don’t Care by Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber
17. Eastside by benny blanco feat. Khalid and Halsey
18. Shallow by Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper
19. Going Bad by Meek Mill feat. Drake
20. Better by Khalid
21. Girls Like You by Maroon 5 feat. Cardi B
22. No Guidance by Chris Brown feat. Drake
23. Sweet but Psycho by Ava Max
24. Suge by DaBaby
25. Ransom by Lil Tecca
26. MIDDLE CHILD by J. Cole
27. If I Can’t Have You by Shawn Mendes
28. Drip Too Hard by Lil Baby and Gunna
29. Someone You Loved by Lewis Capaldi
30. Goodbyes by Post Malone feat. Young Thug
31. You Need to Calm Down by Taylor Swift
32. Money in the Grave by Drake feat. Rick Ross
33. Better Now by Post Malone
34. ZEZE by Kodak Black feat. Travis Scott and Offset
35. Youngblood by 5 Seconds of Summer
36. Speechless by Dan + Shay
37. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored by Ariana Grande
38. Please Me by Cardi B feat. Bruno Mars
39. Money by Cardi B
40. Look Back at It by A Boogie wit da Hoodie
41. a lot by 21 Savage feat. J. Cole
42. ME! by Taylor Swift feat. Brendon Urie
43. Panini by Lil Nas x
44. Beautiful Crazy by Luke Combs
45. MIA by Bad Bunny feat. Drake
46. Pop Out by Polo G feat. Lil Tjay
47. Beer Never Broke My Heart by Luke Combs
48. Thotiana by Blueface
49. The Git Up by Blanco Brown
50. Be Alright by Dean Lewis
51. Whiskey Glasses by Morgan Wallen
52. Lucid Dreams by Juice WRLD
53. God’s Country by Blake Shelton
54. Circles by Post Malone
55. Pure Water by Mustard feat. Migos
56. Envy Me by Calboy
57. Mo Bamba by Sheck Wes
58. Wake Up in the Sky by Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars and Kodak Black
59. You Say by Lauren Daigle
60. Close to Me by Ellie Goulding and Diplo feat. Swae Lee
61. Taki Taki by DJ Snake feat. Ozuna, Cardi B and Selena Gomez
62. The London by Young Thug feat. Travis Scott and J. Cole
63. Beautiful People by Ed Sheeran feat. Khalid
64. Con Calma by Daddy Yankee and Katy Perry feat. Snow
65. when the party’s over by Billie Eilish
66. Hey Look Ma, I Made It by Panic! at the Disco
67. Murder on My Mind by YNW Melly
68. Act Up by City Girls
69. I Like It by Cardi B, Bad Bunny and J. Balvin
70. bury a friend by Billie Eilish
71. Leave Me Alone by Flipp Dinero
72. Close Friends by Lil Baby
73. My Type by Saweetie
74. Knockin’ Boots by Luke Bryan
75. Baby Shark by Pinkfong
76. breathin by Ariana Grande
77. boyfriend by Ariana Grande feat. Social House
78. Worth It by YK Osiris
79. Swervin by A Boogie wit da Hoodie feat. 6ix9ine
80. Hot Girl Summer by Megan Thee Stallion, Nicki Minaj and Ty Dolla $ign
81. How Do You Sleep by Sam Smith
82. Clout by Offset feat. Cardi B
83. Rumor by Lee Brice
84. Look What God Gave Her by Thomas Rhett
85. Trip by Ella Mai
86. Only Human by Jonas Brothers
87. Good as You by Kane Brown
88. Trampoline by SHAED
89. Shotta Flow by NLE Choppa
90. Tequila by Dan + Shay
91. Love Lies by Khalid and Normani
92. Cash s**t by Megan thee Stallion feat. DaBaby
93. Baby by Lil Baby and DaBaby


With eight spots left, that could leave it open for things like Eyes on You, China and One Thing Right to come in...although considering how they've been underperforming they could still miss it. This also leaves early dropouts like Eyes on You, This is It and Walk Me Home to come in. Of course, we could have another Look at Me!/Believer situation where songs somehow make the year end-list despite not being projected to do so (if one song could do so, it probably be Beautiful)

[Dadude#0839]

I really hope Trampoline and Only Human can make it, I have been rooting for those songs since debuted.