Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Deleted]

Here is my updated tracking for this week on current charting songs that might potentially make the 2019 year end list in the future:

PS: I have recalculated This Is It, Eyes On You and Talk You Out Of It's total points since I forgot to account for some album bombs before.

Songs That Locked This Week:
-Panini
-Beautiful People

Songs That Will Be Locked In The Future:
-My Type
-Boyfriend

The total number of songs that are locked or will be locked in the future are 79. Here are the other songs still charting that I tracked:

?) Knockin' Boots 2263 (+108)
79) Rumor 2012
- - - - - LOCKED (2000 Points) - - - - -
80) Clout 1991
81) Good As You 1968
82) Look What God Gave Her 1965
83) Trip 1952
84) Shotta Flow 1877
85) Tequila 1866
86) All To Myself 1842
87) This Is It 1809
88) Eyes On You 1803

89) Love Lies 1803
- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

90) Talk You Out Of It 1772
91) Walk Me Home 1733
92) Beautiful 1718
93) Go Loko 1710
94) GIRL 1709
- - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1700 Points) - - - - -
95) Trampoline 1577 (+128)
96) Rearview Town 1565 (+55)
97) Cash s**t 1464 (+120)
98) Callaita 1403 (+82)
99) Otro Trago 1370 (+87)
100) Only Human 1350 (+134)
101) One Thing Right 1340 (+110)
102) Baby 1325 (+148)
103) How Do You Sleep? 1285 (+138)
104) The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home 1285 (+79)
105) Hot Girl Summer 1085 (+150)
106) China 1075 (+93)
107) I Don't Know About You 1063 (+122)
108) Lalala 1062 (+84)
109) Circles 1026 (+232)
110) Time 870 (+109)
111) Lover 866 (+115)
112) Ballin’ 766 (+100)
113) On Chill 762 (+132)
114) Hot 762 (+125)
115) Motivation 631 (+94)
116) Good As Hell 579 (+117)

117) Take What You Want 572 (+140)

118) 223’s 294 (+123)
119) INTRO 171 (+171)

120) Memories 146 (+146)

Dropouts:
All To Myself 1842 (Will probably make the 2019 year end list.)
Press 1494 (Will miss the 2019 year end list.)

Here is the projected cutoff if the week of November 24th, 2018 is not counted towards the 2019 year end list:

83) Shotta Flow 1877
84) All To Myself 1842
85) This Is It 1809

86) Eyes On You 1803

87) Trip 1788

88) Talk You Out Of It 1772

89) Tequila 1742

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
90) Walk Me Home 1733
91) Go Loko 1710
92) GIRL 1709

Love Lies is at 1653 points and Beautiful is at 1590 points. Both will definitely not make the list in this scenario.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here are the projected calculated points for every song I tracked if they stayed in their same positions for the rest of the charting year:

?) Circles 2650
?) Trampoline 2473
?) Baby 2361
?) Cash s**t 2304
?) Only Human 2288
?) Knockin' Boots 2263
?) How Do You Sleep? 2251
?) Hot Girl Summer 2135
?) One Thing Right 2110
87) Rumor 2012
88) Clout 1991
89) Good As You 1968
90) Look What God Gave Her 1965
91) Trip 1952
92) I Don’t Know About You 1917
93) Shotta Flow 1877
94) Tequila 1866
95) All To Myself 1842
96) This Is It 1809
97) Eyes On You 1803
98) Love Lies 1803
99) Talk You Out Of It 1772
100) Walk Me Home 1733

- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -

101) Callaita 1731
102) China 1726
103) Otro Trago 1718
104) Beautiful 1718
105) Go Loko 1710
106) GIRL 1709
?) On Chill 1686
?) The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home 1680
?) Rearview Town 1675
?) Lover 1671
?) Lalala 1650
?) Hot 1637
?) Time 1633
?) Take What You Want 1552
?) Ballin’ 1466
?) Good As Hell 1398
?) INTRO 1368
?) Motivation 1289
?) Memories 1168
?) 223’s 1155

Here's the same thing but the week of November 24th, 2018 is not counted towards the 2019 year end list:

91) I Don’t Know About You 1917
92) Shotta Flow 1877
93) All To Myself 1842
94) This Is It 1809

95) Eyes On You 1803

96) Trip 1788

97) Talk You Out Of It 1772

98) Tequila 1742

99) Walk Me Home 1733

100) Callaita 1731

- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -

101) China 1726
102) Otro Trago 1718
103) Go Loko 1710
104) GIRL 1709
?) Love Lies 1653
?) Beautiful 1590

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here's also my opinion on each song's chances of making the 2019 year end list (only the ones that I tracked and are still charting):

Certain:
Circles

Trampoline

Baby

Cash s**t

Only Human

Knockin' Boots

How Do You Sleep?

Pretty Likely:

Hot Girl Summer

Slightly Likely:
One Thing Right

Toss Up:

On Chill

Lover

Slightly Unlikely:

China

Time

Hot

Memories

Pretty Unlikely:
I Don't Know About You

Callaita

Otro Trago

Lalala

Ballin'
Good As Hell

No Chance:
The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home

Rearview Town

Take What You Want

Motivation

INTRO

223's

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Oct 1, 2019 3:39:14 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Oct 1, 2019 3:19:24 GMT -5 n13l5 said:

its rising very fast though, it the chance really that small?

It literally needs to hit the top 10 next week and stay there to make it, which is pretty much impossible.

Considering his arrest caused 'Murder on My Mind' to increase streams and interest, if Melly is released before the year-end list, it could catapult 223's to the Top 20, possibly Top 10 if they can get a video out on top. And if not, it could stick around for next year's list.

[lights]

[lights]

Songs not currently locked that I see making it (in my predictions): Trampoline, My Type, Cash Shit, Only Human, Boyfriend, One Thing Right, Baby, How Do You Sleep, Hot Girl Summer, Circles. That would make Miss Me More the #100 song. We can only hope.

Should note that I'm not including 24/11. Once we get to the last week I'll make a version where I add in that week.

[spicymapping]

Oct 1, 2019 7:01:01 GMT -5 lights said:

Songs not currently locked that I see making it (in my predictions): Trampoline, My Type, Cash s**t, Only Human, Boyfriend, One Thing Right, Baby, How Do You Sleep, Hot Girl Summer, Circles. That would make Miss Me More the #100 song. We can only hope.

Should note that I'm not including 24/11. Once we get to the last week I'll make a version where I add in that week.

If 11/24 isn’t included, I think that “making it” list is too conservative. If we tack on the last 2 weeks of this November, songs like On Chill, Lover, Hot & Highest In The Room should have no problem passing MMM.

[lights]

Oct 1, 2019 10:26:24 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Oct 1, 2019 7:01:01 GMT -5 lights said:

Songs not currently locked that I see making it (in my predictions): Trampoline, My Type, Cash s**t, Only Human, Boyfriend, One Thing Right, Baby, How Do You Sleep, Hot Girl Summer, Circles. That would make Miss Me More the #100 song. We can only hope.

Should note that I'm not including 24/11. Once we get to the last week I'll make a version where I add in that week.

If 11/24 isn’t included, I think that “making it” list is too conservative. If we tack on the last 2 weeks of this November, songs like On Chill, Lover, Hot & Highest In The Room should have no problem passing MMM.

I'm not too sure what you mean by "tack on last 2 weeks of this November". I'm working on the basis that there are 7 weeks left. To be fair if I take Miss Me More as the cutoff point then those songs could have some chance.


Lover

Points needed to pass Miss Me More: 775

Points per week = 111

Current points per week = 108



On Chill

Needed: 894
Ppw: 128
Current: 130


Hot
Needed: 876
Ppw: 125
Current: 123

[spicymapping]

Oct 1, 2019 10:57:59 GMT -5 lights said:

Oct 1, 2019 10:26:24 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

If 11/24 isn’t included, I think that “making it” list is too conservative. If we tack on the last 2 weeks of this November, songs like On Chill, Lover, Hot & Highest In The Room should have no problem passing MMM.

I'm not too sure what you mean by "tack on last 2 weeks of this November". I'm working on the basis that there are 7 weeks left. To be fair if I take Miss Me More as the cutoff point then those songs could have some chance.


Lover

Points needed to pass Miss Me More: 775

Points per week = 111

Current points per week = 108



On Chill

Needed: 894
Ppw: 128
Current: 130


Hot
Needed: 876
Ppw: 125
Current: 123

Ah, I thought you were working with 6 left. Even still, that one extra week that is pretty likely and that'd push all 3 of those pretty safely into locked territory.

[lights]

Oct 1, 2019 11:09:13 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Oct 1, 2019 10:57:59 GMT -5 lights said:

I'm not too sure what you mean by "tack on last 2 weeks of this November". I'm working on the basis that there are 7 weeks left. To be fair if I take Miss Me More as the cutoff point then those songs could have some chance.


Lover

Points needed to pass Miss Me More: 775

Points per week = 111

Current points per week = 108



On Chill

Needed: 894
Ppw: 128
Current: 130


Hot
Needed: 876
Ppw: 125
Current: 123

Ah, I thought you were working with 6 left. Even still, that one extra week that is pretty likely and that'd push all 3 of those pretty safely into locked territory.

Again, still not sure what week you're referring to. The one I said I'm not counting is the November week from 2018

[spicymapping]

Oct 1, 2019 11:20:43 GMT -5 lights said:

Oct 1, 2019 11:09:13 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Ah, I thought you were working with 6 left. Even still, that one extra week that is pretty likely and that'd push all 3 of those pretty safely into locked territory.

Again, still not sure what week you're referring to. The one I said I'm not counting is the November week from 2018

11/30/19

[spicymapping]

Oct 1, 2019 11:20:43 GMT -5 lights said:

Oct 1, 2019 11:09:13 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Ah, I thought you were working with 6 left. Even still, that one extra week that is pretty likely and that'd push all 3 of those pretty safely into locked territory.

Again, still not sure what week you're referring to. The one I said I'm not counting is the November week from 2018

11/30/19

[lights]

Oct 1, 2019 12:00:37 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Oct 1, 2019 11:20:43 GMT -5 lights said:

Again, still not sure what week you're referring to. The one I said I'm not counting is the November week from 2018

11/30/19

Ok I wasn't planning on counting that one, I didn't know that anyone was.

[spicymapping]

It’s cutoff changing time

TL, DR:
Locked: All To Myself
Added: Only Human, How Do You Sleep, One Thing Right, The Ones That Didn’t Make It Back Home

1. Sunflower (=)
2. Without Me (=)
3. Old Town Road (=)
4. Wow. (+2)
5. 7 Rings (-1)
6. Happier (-1)
7. bad guy (=)
8. SICKO MODE (=)
9. Sucker (+2)
10. thank u, next (-1)
11. High Hopes (-1)
12. Talk (=)
13. Dancing With a Stranger (=)
14. Truth Hurts (+3)
15. Eastside (-1)
16. Shallow (-1)
17. Going Bad (-1)
18. I Don't Care (=)
19. Better (=)
20. Girls Like You (=)
21. Señorita (+2)
22. Sweet But Psycho (-1)
23. MIDDLE CHILD (-1)
24. Drip Too Hard (=)
25. Suge (=)
26. If I Can’t Have You (=)
27. No Guidance (+3)
28. Please Me (-1)
29. ZEZE (-1)
30. Better Now (-1)
31. Youngblood (=)
32. Speechless (+2)
33. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored (-1)
34. Money (-1)
35. Ran$om (+9)
36. Pop Out (=)
37. a lot (-2)
38. MIA (-1)
39. Look Back At It (-1)
40. ME! (-1)
41. Thotiana (-1)
42. Someone You Loved (+13)
43. Beautiful Crazy (-3)
44. God's Country (-2)
45. Lucid Dreams (-2)
46. Whiskey Glasses (-1)
47. You Need To Calm Down (+2)
48. Goodbyes (+3)
49. Mo Bamba (-3)
50. Money In The Grave (+2)
51. Wake Up In The Sky (-4)
52. Be Alright (-4)
53. Pure Water (-3)
54. Close To Me (-1)
55. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (-1)
56. Taki Taki (=)
57. Beer Never Broke My Heart (+2)
58. You Say (-1)
59. Envy Me (-1)
60. Con Calma (=)
61. The London (+1)
62. when the party’s over (-1)
63. The Git Up (+2)
64. Murder on My Mind (-1)
65. Act Up (-1)
66. I Like It (=)
67. Leave Me Alone (=)
68. Breathin (=)
69. Panini (+4)
70. Close Friends (-1)
71. bury a friend (-1)
72. Baby Shark (-1)
73. Beautiful People (+2)
74. Knockin' Boots (=)
75. Worth It (-3)
76. Trip (=)
77. Swervin (=)
78. Rumor (=)
79. Tequila (=)
80. Look What God Gave Her (=)
81. Clout (=)
82. Good as You (=)
83. Love Lies (=)
84. Shotta Flow (=)
85. Talk You Out Of It (=)
86. All To Myself (=)

NEW Projected Cutoff - 1450

87. Eyes on You (=)
88. Robbery (=)
89. Beautiful (=)
90. Never Really Over (=)
91. My Type (+13) - WA: 1
92. GIRL (-1)
93. Walk Me Home (-1)
94. Go Loko (-1)
95. Here Tonight (-1)
96. All I Want For Christmas is You (-1)
97. This Is It (-1)
98. EARFQUAKE (-1)
99. Miss Me More (-1)
100. Girls Need Love (-1)

102. Trampoline (+11) - WA: 3
105. Rearview Town (+2) - WA: 6, WL: 2
108. Boyfriend (+14) WA: 2
115. Cash s**t (+10) - WA: 4
116. Baby (+17) - WA: 3
120. Only Human (NEW) - WA: 4
125. Otro Trago (+3) - WA: 7, WL: 4
127. Callaita (+3) - WA: 7, WL: 4
130. How Do You Sleep? (NEW) - WA: 4
134. One Thing Right (NEW) - WA: 6
135. The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home (NEW) - WA: 8, WL: 5

[Deleted]

Looks like we might be getting 3 Dan + Shay songs on the 2019 year end list, assuming that Tequila makes it (it would be a rare country repeat too).

[inverse]

The only ones from this decade so far is If I Die Young and Wanted.

[mikerivera]

Wow. As if it wasn’t enough to hide every chart besides the hot 100, now Billboard is removing the ability to see whether a song gained in performance or not. They really want to make it as impossible to predict the charts as possible.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Actually, you need to now press anywhere in the song's rectangle and press "Awards". There you will get that the song "Gained in Performance". That's one of the "unimprovements" they did with the new look.

[rockgolf]

Well, the revamp of the Hot 100 format means that acharts.co has to reconfigure, but it also means I can sort the Hot 100 by Last Week! Yay!

With that in mind, here's my year-end predictions inclusive of the October 5, 2019 chart. (We're in the penultimate month of the chart year! Probably only 7 charts left to be included.)

No changes at all in the top ten. In fact the only BIG news is that I've bitten the bullet and reduced the points I expect will be needed to make the year-end from 1100 to 1050. The effect of which is the My Type and Boyfriend have probably locked into the final top 100 of the year. Megan Thee Stallion could rather easily go from zero tracks in the top 100 in September, to 2 at year-end.

DaBaby's INTRO has a [2] after the title to distinguish it from the other song titled "Intro" earlier this year. Everyone remembers that song by Meek Mill, right? Right?

Yeah, me neither.

[dann]

Can Panini reach the top 40?

[nathanalbright]

Oct 1, 2019 19:19:03 GMT -5 dann said:

Can Panini reach the top 40?

Let's assume that Panini is able to stay pretty solid through the last seven weeks of the year, without any collapses.  This would be good for at least 1000 points or so on this chart, which would put Panini at over 2600 for the year.  That would likely be enough for Panini to hit the top 40.  If it goes any higher than #5 thanks to radio gains, etc., then that would be even easier.

[GPMB]

I predicted Panini to be #30 YE, but that may have been an overestimation considering it would need to stay in the top 5 for the rest of the chart year to even have a chance of getting that high. It’s probably still likely to make top 40 though if it’s able to stick around in the top 10

[rimetm]

October 5, 2019 - 46/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

[Deleted]

The Billboard 2019 year end list if the chart stays the same for the rest of the year (based off of fhas/rimetm's predictions list).

1) Old Town Road 1718380
2) Sunflower 1328870
3) Without Me 1150220
4) Bad Guy 975540
5) Wow. 964730
6) Talk 896830
7) Happier 855460
8) 7 Rings 851460
9) Sucker 845120
10) Truth Hurts 810360
11) Sicko Mode 794310
12) High Hopes 779140
13) Dancing With A Stranger 745300
14) Senorita 713560
15) I Don't Care 711440
16) Thank U, Next 698820
17) Eastside 620490
18) Going Bad 610540
19) Shallow 597800
20) No Guidance 594910
21) Better 568740
22) Suge 551580
23) Sweet But Psycho 542980
24) Ran$om 542110
25) Someone You Loved 518100
26) Girls Like You 517300
27) Middle Child 508720
28) If I Can't Have You 493200
29) Drip Too Hard 473500
30) Goodbyes 466260
31) Speechless 445670
32) Pop Out 406410
33) Money In The Grave 403510
34) Panini 396540
35) You Need To Calm Down 389710
36) Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I'm Bored 376720
37) Please Me 373910
38) Better Now 366820
39) Zeze 366070
40) Look Back At It 365510
41) Youngblood 364480
42) Money 354560
43) A Lot 352790
44) Me! 347820
45) Beautiful Crazy 340990
46) Beer Never Broke My Heart 340280
47) The Git Up 335910
48) Thotiana 327980
49) MIA 323770
50) Beautiful People 318340
51) Whiskey Glasses 318090
52) The London 317560
53) Be Alright 313260
54) God's Country 310280
55) Pure Water 306000
56) Envy Me 305190
57) Close To Me 298440
58) You Say 293800
59) Knockin' Boots 293390
60) Lucid Dreams 290920
61) Wake Up In The Sky 285010
62) Hey Look Ma, I Made It 282710
63) Mo Bamba 280420
64) Con Calma 276050
65) Taki Taki 270450
66) Circles 269920
67) Murder On My Mind 263880
68) When The Party's Over 263330
69) Act Up 255740
70) My Type 251800
71) Trampoline 243740
72) Bury A Friend 240670
73) I Like It 238540
74) Baby Shark 233990
75) Worth It 228740
76) Close Friends 226840
77) Leave Me Alone 226390
78) Baby 226150
79) Boyfriend 225780
80) Only Human 224980
81) How Do You Sleep? 219330
82) Swervin 217700
83) Cash s**t 214810
84) Breathin 212980
85) Hot Girl Summer 203750
86) One Thing Right 201590
87) Clout 199930
88) Rumor 199690
89) Look What God Gave Her 195810
90) Good As You 193580
91) Shotta Flow 186890
92) All To Myself 180690
93) Eyes On You 178400
94) Trip 177180
95) Tequila 173490
96) Talk You Out Of It 173350
97) I Don't Know About You 171620
98) This Is It 170870
99) Walk Me Home 170610
100) Go Loko 168400
- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -
101) Robbery 167880
102) GIRL 166000
103) On Chill 165360
104) Love Lies 163620
105) Rearview Town 163020
106) Here Tonight 162220
107) Callaita 162020
108) Otro Trago 161740
109) Girl Like You 161290

110) Never Really Over 158780

111) Miss Me More 158270
112) China 157480
113) Here With Me 156880
114) Lover 156840
115) Beautiful 155570
116) Put A Date On It 154910
117) Earfquake 153770
118) Hot 153590
119) Girls Need Love 153540
120) Time 151570

EDIT: I decided to add #111-#120 since there were some songs charting that would land there if they continued at their current rate.

[GPMB]

RIP Pop Out :( it'll most likely be gone next week and therefore miss the top 40 of the YE

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Since the final year-end predictions are around the corner, I think it'd also be fun to predict which 25 hit songs would best represent the year in year-end mashups:

Ariana Grande - 7 rings
benny blanco feat. Khalid and Halsey - Eastside
Billie Eilish - bad guy
Chris Brown feat. Drake - No Guidance
DaBaby - Suge
Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber - I Don’t Care
Halsey - Without Me
J. Cole - MIDDLE CHILD
Jonas Brothers - Sucker
Khalid - Talk
Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper - Shallow
Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved
Lil Baby and Gunna - Drip Too Hard
Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus - Old Town Road
Lil Nas X - Panini
Lil Tecca - Ransom
Lizzo - Truth Hurts
Panic! at the Disco - High Hopes
Post Malone - Circles
Post Malone feat. Young Thug - Goodbyes
Post Malone and Swae Lee - Sunflower
Post Malone - Wow.
Sam Smith and Normani - Dancing with a Stranger
Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello - Señorita

plus one mystery song that'll drop in late-October/November since that seems to happen every year.

[GPMB]

i really hope that Speechless isn’t higher on this year’s YE than Tequila was on last year’s

Oct 2, 2019 16:44:39 GMT -5 @delphox said:

32) Pop Out 406410

god i wish

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Oct 3, 2019 1:12:17 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Since the final year-end predictions are around the corner, I think it'd also be fun to predict which 25 hit songs would best represent the year in year-end mashups:

Ariana Grande - 7 rings
benny blanco feat. Khalid and Halsey - Eastside
Billie Eilish - bad guy
Chris Brown feat. Drake - No Guidance
DaBaby - Suge
Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber - I Don’t Care
Halsey - Without Me
J. Cole - MIDDLE CHILD
Jonas Brothers - Sucker
Khalid - Talk
Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper - Shallow
Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved
Lil Baby and Gunna - Drip Too Hard
Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus - Old Town Road
Lil Nas X - Panini
Lil Tecca - Ransom
Lizzo - Truth Hurts
Panic! at the Disco - High Hopes
Post Malone - Circles
Post Malone feat. Young Thug - Goodbyes
Post Malone and Swae Lee - Sunflower
Post Malone - Wow.
Sam Smith and Normani - Dancing with a Stranger
Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello - Señorita

plus one mystery song that'll drop in late-October/November since that seems to happen every year.

As someone that listens to Year-End Mashups that often, I'll give an analysis on the possibility of the songs used:

1. Some may have a risky chance of getting placed on the Year-End Mashup, especially hip-hop songs (for this year's case, Drip Too Hard/Ransom/Suge with Middle Child and Panini to a lesser extent) One reason is that mashup creators sometimes put on a lyrical touch to it, and lyrics like those that are in the three/five mentioned would have a hard time being used (although instrumental can be fine actually, like Adamusic's Year-End mashup last year has Drip Too Hard in it). Speaking of Drip Too Hard, it could also have a hard time being placed on YE mashups because of the strict labels covering the song and the artist (Lil Baby and Gunna).

2. Some songs are already used on last year's YE mashups for some (Eastside/High Hopes/Sunflower) and mashup artists tend to not use a song in two year-end mashups. For Dylan :)'s case, neither of the three songs was used in his last year, so IT GETS BETTER (see what I did there?) to hype up Dylan's 2019 YE.

3. DJ Earworm's USPOP 2019 can be actually close to the songlist right there, although he can replace some songs with other. And to think it's been a decade since "The Year-End mashup of all Year-End mashups" aka USPOP 2009 existed.

These are some songs that can also be placed in YE mashups this year with 25-30 songs and that also leans to the success in the Billboard Hot 100 charts:

- "If I Can't Have You"
- "ME!"
- "You Need To Calm Down"
- "Please Me"
- "Sweet But Psycho"
- "thank u, next" (only if it wasn't used last year)
- "Better" (see "thank u, next")
- "Beautiful People"

[Dylan :)]

I am using 14 of those 25 songs listed and 5 of the extra few listed in the last post :) Right now, at least. I tend to focus on pop hits more. I have just finished my year end instrumental and it is very much pop It mainly focuses on a song that charted well on CHR but not really on the Hot 100

[iggyamo]

I really wonder if Young Thug’s star power will be enough to get Tokyo Ghoul to debut next week. Just based on who’s in it, it may be the weirdest song to chart this year, beating out Blue on Black, Baby Shark, and Fear Inoculum.

[spicymapping]

i did my own hold position thing albeit i did actually predict a few weeks into the future.

#1 - Sunflower
#2 - Old Town Road
#3 - Without Me
#4 - Bad Guy
#5 - Wow.
#6 - 7 Rings
#7 - Happier
#8 - Sucker
#9 - Talk
#10 - Truth Hurts
#11 - Sicko Mode
#12 - thank u, next
#13 - High Hopes
#14 - Senorita
#15 - Dancing With a Stranger
#16 - I Don't Care
#17 - Eastside
#18 - Shallow
#19 - Going Bad
#20 - Suge
#21 - No Guidance
#22 - Better
#23 - Girls Like You
#24 - Someone You Loved
#25 - Sweet But Psycho
#26 - Ran$om
#27 - MIDDLE CHILD
#28 - Drip Too Hard
#29 - If I Can't Have You
#30 - Goodbyes
#31 - Panini
#32 - Money In The Grave
#33 - Please Me
#34 - ZEZE
#35 - You Need To Calm Down
#36 - Better Now
#37 - Youngblood
#38 - Speechless
#39 - BUWYG, IB
#40 - Money
#41 - Pop Out
#42 - A Lot
#43 - MIA
#44 - Beautiful People
#45 - Look Back At It
#46 - ME!
#47 - Thotiana
#48 - The Git Up
#49 - Beautiful Crazy
#50 - God's Country
#51 - Lucid Dreams
#52 - Whiskey Glasses
#53 - Mo Bamba
#54 - Wake Up In The Sky
#55 - Be Alright
#56 - Pure Water
#57 - Close To Me
#58 - Hey Look Ma, I Made It
#59 - The London
#60 - Taki Taki
#61 - Beer Never Broke My Heart
#62 - You Say
#63 - Envy Me
#64 - Con Calma
#65 - Circles
#66 - When the Party's Over
#67 - Murder on My Mind
#68 - Act Up
#69 - Trampoline
#70 - My Type
#71 - Baby
#72 - I Like It
#73 - Leave Me Alone
#74 - Breathin
#75 - Boyfriend
#76 - Only Human
#77 - Close Friends
#78 - Bury a Friend
#79 - Hot Girl Summer
#80 - Baby Shark
#81 - Knockin' Boots
#82 - How Do You Sleep?
#83 - Worth It
#84 - Cash Shit
#85 - Trip
#86 - Swervin
#87 - Rumor
#88 - Tequila
#89 - One Thing Right
#90 - Look What God Gave Her
#91 - Clout
#92 - Good as You
#93 - Love Lies
#94 - Shotta Flow
#95 - Talk You Out of It
#96 - All To Myself
#97 - Eyes on You
#98 - On Chill
#99 - Robbery
#100 - Highest In The Room

HITR actually came out at #68 but that seemed unrealistic so i bumped it down. Beautiful, Never Really Over, GIRL, Walk Me Home and Go Loko fill out the next 5. Hot, Ballin & Lover are all on pace to get at this growth rate/in the no 11/24 scenario - in which Robbery and Love Lies are replaced by Hot & Lover with Ballin' trailing at #102 and Time at #109 as another late entry option. Even though this isn't reflected in the actual calculation, the real winner of the no 11/24 scenario is probably AIWFCIY - MC is releasing a christmas album impacting on the week of 11/16, and assuming it re-enters then it not only locks itself for the no 11/24 scenario but gives it a legitamate run at making it with the 11/24 scenario.

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I honestly don't think Highest In The Room has that much of a chance at all. It literally needs to stay in the top 5 for its first 6 weeks to land a spot on the year end list. I could be wrong, but I'm really cautious when it comes to high debuts this late in the year making the year end list.

At this point, I think the cutoff will either be Go Loko (if On Chill makes it), Walk Me Home (if Lover makes it) or This Is It (some other song that might rise out of nowhere and clench a year end spot). I still can't believe how low the cutoff is this year (170k points according to fhas/rimetm's predictions), since a song like All To Myself probably would have missed if it charted last year, but will comfortably make the list this year.