Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[GPMB]

Oct 9, 2019 22:44:57 GMT -5 @delphox said:

With Boyfriend projected to drop to around 52 next week (according to Simon Falk), and its continued massive losses on radio, I'm not too sure if it can make the 2019 year end list anymore. Either way, I'm going to have to track the song now since it's not guaranteed to get a spot on the list.

Projected Scenario Where It Goes 52-68-84-100 On The Charts:

137300 (Current Score According To Rimetm) + 9500 + 7500 + 6000 + 5000 = 165300 Points

Not saying this is what will happen, but if it drops at its current rate and only lasts for 4 more weeks on the charts before being kicked out, it would barely miss out of the 2019 year end list at around 165000 points (160000 points if it takes the same route as Never Really Over and only lasts 3 more weeks). It will need at least 5 more weeks on the charts to break 170000 points, which is the projected cutoff on Rimetm's list.

At this point I'm pretty sure the toss up songs that can make a late entry into the year end list are On Chill, Boyfriend, Highest In The Room & Lover. I have posted the cutoffs below (according to rimetm's list) to show all possible scenarios of the 4 toss up songs making the list.

0 Songs: GIRL

1 Songs: Robbery

2 Songs: Go Loko

3 Songs: Walk Me Home

4 Songs: This Is It

So yeah, not accounting for prediction error, This Is It is the highest song that is the cutoff assuming all 4 toss up songs listed above make it.

what about 10000 Hours

[Deleted]

Oct 11, 2019 9:04:15 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Oct 9, 2019 22:44:57 GMT -5 @delphox said:

At this point I'm pretty sure the toss up songs that can make a late entry into the year end list are On Chill, Boyfriend, Highest In The Room & Lover.

what about 10000 Hours

Assuming it debuts at #5-7 instead of #1-2 like Highest In The Room, it probably needs to rise to the top 3 and stay there to make it.

[lights]

Surprisingly bad pop callouts for Good As Hell, wouldn't shock me if that gets caught between years now.

[GPMB]

Oct 11, 2019 9:19:51 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Oct 11, 2019 9:04:15 GMT -5 GPMB said:

what about 10000 Hours

Assuming it debuts at #5-7 instead of #1-2 like Highest In The Room, it probably needs to rise to the top 3 and stay there to make it.

god billboard are so stupid for making november the end of the chart year instead of december

[kcdawg13]

Oct 11, 2019 11:34:59 GMT -5 lights said:

Surprisingly bad pop callouts for Good As Hell, wouldn't shock me if that gets caught between years now.

Bad? It's above both Only Human and Beautiful People, which are both Top 10 on Pop and still gaining significantly everyday.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Still hoping for "Beautiful" to be in the YE not just because I like it, so that we can have three songs with "Beautiful" in the title in the YE Hot 100.

[Deleted]

Oct 12, 2019 4:40:16 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Still hoping for "Beautiful" to be in the YE not just because I like it, so that we can have three songs with "Beautiful" in the title in the YE Hot 100.

When I did the 2019 year end list if the charts stay the same earlier this week, Beautiful would have been #100 if November 24th counted.

Here's the bottom of the year end list if November 24th counted. I have put the songs that would gain from having that extra week in bold.

89) Trip 194290

90) Good As You 193580
91) Hot Girl Summer 191030

92) Tequila 186120

93) Shotta Flow 184750

94) Love Lies 180600

95) Eyes On You 178400
96) All To Myself 177750
97) Talk You Out Of It 173350
98) This Is It 170870
99) Walk Me Home 170610

100) Beautiful 168810

- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -

101) Go Loko 168310
102) Robbery 167880
103) GIRL 166000

[lights]

Oct 12, 2019 4:11:28 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Oct 11, 2019 11:34:59 GMT -5 lights said:

Surprisingly bad pop callouts for Good As Hell, wouldn't shock me if that gets caught between years now.

Bad? It's above both Only Human and Beautiful People, which are both Top 10 on Pop and still gaining significantly everyday.

Don't know what metric you're referring to but it has the 3rd worst net positive score, below both of those.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Oct 12, 2019 4:52:39 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Oct 12, 2019 4:40:16 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Still hoping for "Beautiful" to be in the YE not just because I like it, so that we can have three songs with "Beautiful" in the title in the YE Hot 100.

When I did the 2019 year end list if the charts stay the same earlier this week, Beautiful would have been #100 if November 24th counted.

Here's the bottom of the year end list if November 24th counted. I have put the songs that would gain from having that extra week in bold.

89) Trip 194290

90) Good As You 193580
91) Hot Girl Summer 191030

92) Tequila 186120

93) Shotta Flow 184750

94) Love Lies 180600

95) Eyes On You 178400
96) All To Myself 177750
97) Talk You Out Of It 173350
98) This Is It 170870
99) Walk Me Home 170610

100) Beautiful 168810

- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -

101) Go Loko 168310
102) Robbery 167880
103) GIRL 166000

So if Billboard doesn't count the 11-24 chart week, then basically "Beautiful" would be screwed. Yikes, that's its only hope if it wants to *hopefully* sneak in.

[liam1396]

Oct 9, 2019 22:12:10 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

The Number One Year-End Singles of the Decade Ranked (Best to Worst):

2012: Somebody That I Used to Know
2019: Old Town Road
2015: Uptown Funk
2011: Rolling in the Deep
2013: Thrift Shop
2017: Shape of You
2010: Tik Tok
2014: Happy
2018: God's Plan
2016: Love Yourself

[Groovy]

What do you guys think of Harry Styles’ new single as far as where it will land and the song itself? I personally like it and think it’ll be a mainstream hit.

[GPMB]

btw i updated my own predictions of what the final YE would look like yesterday (again based on rimetm's predictions) and the lowest song that has completed its chart run to make my top 100 predictions was Go Loko, at #99 (I Don't Know About You by Chris Lane was my #100, but that song hasn't finished its run yet)

[85la]

Oct 6, 2019 5:05:16 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Oct 6, 2019 1:20:04 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Also, now that Lil Nas X is officially no longer a one hit wonder, I wonder if his next single will be from his 7 EP (C7osure or Rodeo) or whether he'll start building hype for a debut album.

Release "Rodeo", then prepare the debut album hype.

Damn he should've released a debut album already. He has always been in the danger of one-hit wonder territory, and as the rapidly diminishing returns of Panini has shown, the chances of him scoring another big hit that could even hold a candle to the success of OTR, the type of hit that would be required for him to do big numbers with an album, are exceedingly small. I think the best he can do now is to continue to ride out the 7 EP as much as possible, or repackage it with several new songs as an album.

Or I think maybe if he takes a break now and waits a year or two for an album, he might stand a better chance, but to launch a completely new album now would be a mistake.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Oct 12, 2019 21:24:07 GMT -5 85la said:

Oct 6, 2019 5:05:16 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Release "Rodeo", then prepare the debut album hype.

Damn he should've released a debut album already. He has always been in the danger of one-hit wonder territory, and as the rapidly diminishing returns of Panini has shown, the chances of him scoring another big hit that could even hold a candle to the success of OTR, the type of hit that would be required for him to do big numbers with an album, are exceedingly small. I think the best he can do now is to continue to ride out the 7 EP as much as possible, or repackage it with several new songs as an album.

Or I think maybe if he takes a break now and waits a year or two for an album, he might stand a better chance, but to launch a completely new album now would be a mistake.

I think releasing a short EP was the right move because if they released a 10-13 song album from the get go would've killed his momentum and would've been seen as a move by the label just to capitalize on the hype of 'Old Town Town Road', just like what had happen to Desiigner before. But by keeping it short and showing his ambition to other genres, he actually increased his life cycle on the charts. If he starts a hype cycle for a new album, I feel it would do still do numbers, at the very least a Top 20 hit.

Cardi B didn't get another Top 10 hit until 'Invasion of Privacy' dropped and she got a full album bomb a good six months after 'Bodak Yellow' peaked.

[tuna]

Oct 11, 2019 7:40:20 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

I think we're close enough to the year-end, and the upper-end of the chart has been stable enough, that I am going post my predictions/projections for what will be the FINAL Top 100 songs of the year.

I'll still post weekly updates, but here's what I see making it.

I'm so unbelievably mad at how close Take What You Want was to not being shafted

[alejandropadronv04]

It looks like "Thank you, next" will be the new "The Monster"

[Deleted]

Boyfriend took a sharp dive down from 36 to 59 this week. Its chances of making the 2019 year end list don't look good at all.

In other news, Lover went up to 34 this week. That means it isn't out of the race to secure a year end spot yet.

HIGHEST IN THE ROOM debuts at #1, but it will probably drop to 6-10 and stay there the following weeks, which means it will just miss out.

[sirskimask]

HITR won't make this year's list but hopefully it sticks around long enough to make the 2020 list

[lights]

I still think Boyfriend will make it. On my calculations it'll be pretty safe if it charts for 3 more weeks. Even with only 2 more it would have a fairly good chance.

[hydraflare]

HTTR's run will probably be similar to Zeze's

[tallen2001]

I highly doubt it but is their even remotely a chance that Ballin can make it near the bottom?

[inverse]

^ It's possible but it needs to make gains. I have at at 90700 including its most recent week @ 30 which means that for it to have a shot it'd need 70000 points at least in 5 weeks so probably have to climb up to about 20 on the hot 100 pretty quickly.

Boyfriend is so done it's gotta at least last 2 more weeks which isn't for sure given how fast it's been falling I could see it land at like 80 then just fall off. It's gonna be just off at #101 once this week's update is posted and probably won't get in the following week either. Cash $hit should be fine

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Oct 14, 2019 19:03:54 GMT -5 hydraflare said:

HTTR's run will probably be similar to Zeze's

Albeit a possibly higher one (based on the YE) given "Highest In The Room" debuted the week before the chart week "Zeze" debuted.

[Deleted]

Here is my updated tracking for this week on current charting songs that might potentially make the 2019 year end list in the future:

Songs That Will Be Locked In The Future That I'm Not Tracking:
-My Type (Locked In 2 Weeks)

The total number of songs that are locked or will be locked in the future are 78. Here are the other songs still charting that I tracked:

?) Knockin' Boots 2263
78) Rumor 2012
- - - - - LOCKED (2000 Points) - - - - -
79) Clout 1991
80) Good As You 1968

81) Look What God Gave Her 1965

82) Trip 1952

83) Trampoline 1887 (+146)
84) Shotta Flow 1877
85) Tequila 1866
86) All To Myself 1842
87) This Is It 1809
88) Eyes On You 1803
89) Love Lies 1803
90) Talk You Out Of It 1772

91) Walk Me Home 1733

92) Beautiful 1718

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

93) Go Loko 1710

94) GIRL 1709

- - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1700 Points) - - - - -

95) Cash s**t 1686 (+102)
96) Only Human 1644 (+144)
97) Baby 1599 (+132)
98) One Thing Right 1583 (+118)
99) How Do You Sleep? 1569 (+138)
100) Boyfriend 1558 (+95)
101) Callaita 1552 (+70)
102) Circles 1551 (+266)
103) Otro Trago 1531 (+77)
104) Hot Girl Summer 1358 (+129)
105) I Don't Know About You 1286 (+108)
106) China 1253 (+85)
107) Lalala 1234 (+82)
108) Lover 1110 (+126)
109) Time 1086 (+107)
110) On Chill 1046 (+136)
111) Hot 1010 (+122)
112) Ballin’ 1006 (+130)
113) Good As Hell 857 (+142)
114) Highest In The Room 365 (+365)

115) 10,000 Hours 302 (+302)

Dropouts:
The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home 1355 (Will miss the 2019 year end list.)

Here is the projected cutoff if the week of November 24th, 2018 is not counted towards the 2019 year end list:

82) Trampoline 1887 (+146)

83) Shotta Flow 1877
84) All To Myself 1842
85) This Is It 1809
86) Eyes On You 1803
87) Trip 1788
88) Talk You Out Of It 1772

89) Tequila 1742

90) Walk Me Home 1733

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

91) Go Loko 1710

92) GIRL 1709

Love Lies is at 1653 points and Beautiful is at 1590 points. Both will definitely not make the list in this scenario.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here are the projected calculated points for every song I tracked if they stayed in their same positions for the rest of the charting year:

?) Circles 2881
?) Trampoline 2617
?) Only Human 2364
?) How Do You Sleep? 2259
?) Baby 2259
?) Highest In The Room 2190
?) One Thing Right 2173
?) Cash s**t 2094
86) Boyfriend 2033
87) Rumor 2012
88) Hot Girl Summer 2003
89) Clout 1991
90) Good As You 1968
91) Look What God Gave Her 1965
92) Trip 1952
93) Shotta Flow 1877
94) Tequila 1866
95) All To Myself 1842
96) I Don’t Know About You 1826
97) 10,000 Hours 1812
98) This Is It 1809
99) Eyes On You 1803

100) Love Lies 1803

- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -

101) Talk You Out Of It 1772
102) Lover 1740
103) Walk Me Home 1733
104) On Chill 1726
105) Beautiful 1718
106) Go Loko 1710
107) GIRL 1709
?) Callaita 1692
?) Otro Trago 1685
?) China 1678
?) Ballin’ 1656
?) Lalala 1644
?) Time 1621
?) Hot 1620
?) Good As Hell 1567

Here's the same thing but the week of November 24th, 2018 is not counted towards the 2019 year end list:

92) Shotta Flow 1877
93) All To Myself 1842
94) I Don’t Know About You 1826
95) 10,000 Hours 1812
96) This Is It 1809
97) Eyes On You 1803
98) Trip 1788
99) Talk You Out Of It 1772
100) Tequila 1742
- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -
101) Lover 1740
102) Walk Me Home 1733
103) On Chill 1726
104) Go Loko 1710

105) GIRL 1709

?) Love Lies 1653

?) Beautiful 1590

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here's also my opinion on each song's chances of making the 2019 year end list (only the ones that I tracked and are still charting):

Certain:
Circles
Trampoline
Only Human
How Do You Sleep?

Baby

Cash s**t

Pretty Likely:
One Thing Right
Hot Girl Summer

Slightly Likely:
On Chill

Toss Up:
Lover

Slightly Unlikely:
Ballin'

Pretty Unlikely:

Highest In The Room

Boyfriend
I Don't Know About You

10,000 Hours

Time

Hot

Good As Hell

No Chance:

Callaita

Otro Trago

China
Lalala

[Naos]

I am legitimately sad "Lalala" will be missing the year-end list. Would've loved to have an easy Top 10 everyone would put low.

[Mylo13 💜]

Awww I thought boyfriend had a good shot! What would it have to do to make it at this point?

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2019 5:26:35 GMT -5 Mylo13 💜 said:

Awww I thought boyfriend had a good shot! What would it have to do to make it at this point?

It would need to stay on the charts for at least 3 more weeks to even have a running chance and 5 weeks if it wants to be completely safe.

I think everyone thought it had a good shot since it was stable in the top 25 up until last week, which was when people started to doubt it.

[lights]

[spicymapping]

Seasons change, and the charts went so slow that I don´t feel bad reusing this joke

TL, DR:
Locked: Trampoline
Added: None

1. Sunflower (=)
2. Old Town Road (+1)
3. Without Me (-1)
4. Wow. (=)
5. bad guy (+2)
6. 7 Rings (-1)
7. Happier (-1)
8. SICKO MODE (=)
9. Sucker (=)
10. Talk (+2)
11. thank u, next (-1)
12. High Hopes (-1)
13. Truth Hurts (=)
14. Dancing With a Stranger (=)
15. Eastside (=)
16. I Don't Care (+1)
17. Señorita (+2)
18. Shallow (-2)
19. Going Bad (-1)
20. Better (=)
21. Girls Like You (=)
22. Sweet But Psycho (=)
23. MIDDLE CHILD (=)
24. Suge (+1)
25. Drip Too Hard (-1)
26. No Guidance (=)
27. If I Can’t Have You (=)
28. Ran$om (+3)
29. Please Me (-1)
30. ZEZE (-1)
31. Someone You Loved (+5)
32. Better Now (-2)
33. Youngblood (-1)
34. Speechless (-1)
35. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored (-1)
36. Money (-1)
37. Goodbyes (+3)
38. Pop Out (-1)
39. You Need To Calm Down (+3)
40. Money In The Grave (+4)
41. a lot (-3)
42. MIA (-3)
43. Look Back At It (-2)
44. ME! (-1)
45. Thotiana (=)
46. Beautiful Crazy (=)
47. God's Country (=)
48. Lucid Dreams (=)
49. Whiskey Glasses (=)
50. Mo Bamba (=)
51. Wake Up In The Sky (=)
52. Be Alright (=)
53. Pure Water (=)
54. Close To Me (=)
55. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (=)
56. Taki Taki (=)
57. The London (+3)
58. Beer Never Broke My Heart (-1)
59. You Say (-1)
60. Panini (+4)
61. The Git Up (+1)
62. Envy Me (-3)
63. Con Calma (-2)
64. when the party’s over (-1)
65. Beautiful People (+5)
66. Murder on My Mind (-1)
67. Act Up (-1)
68. I Like It (-1)
69. Leave Me Alone (-1)
70. Breathin (-1)
71. Close Friends (=)
72. bury a friend (=)
73. Baby Shark (=)
74. Knockin' Boots (=)
75. Worth It (=)
76. Trip (=)
77. Swervin (=)
78. Rumor (=)
79. Tequila (=)
80. My Type (+6)
81. Trampoline (+8) 
82. Look What God Gave Her (-2)
83. Clout (-2)
84. Good as You (-2)
85. Love Lies (-2)
86. Shotta Flow (-2)
87. Talk You Out Of It (-2)
88. All To Myself (-1)

Projected Cutoff - 1450

89. Eyes on You (-1)
90. Circles (+28) - WA: 1
91. Robbery (-1)
92. Beautiful (-1)
93. Boyfriend (+5) - WA: 1
94. Never Really Over (-2)
95. Baby (+9) - WA: 1
96. Only Human (+11) - WA: 1
97. GIRL (-4)
98. Walk Me Home (-4)
99. Go Loko (-4)
100. Here Tonight (-4)

102. How Do You Sleep? (+11) - WA: 1
105. Cash s**t (+6) - WA: 2
114. Hot Girl Summer (+10) - WA: 2
116. Otro Trago (+4) - WA: 5
117. One Thing Right (+8) - WA: 3
119. Callaita (+3) - WA: 5

And, all songs hold positions....

1. Sunflower
2. Old Town Road
3. Without Me
4. Bad Guy
5. Wow.
6. 7 Rings
7. Happier
8. Sucker
9. Truth Hurts
10. Talk
11. Sicko Mode
12. thank u, next
13. High Hopes
14. Senorita
15. Dancing With a Stranger
16. I Don't Care
17. Eastside
18. Shallow
19. Going Bad
20. No Guidance
21. Suge
22. Better
23. Girls Like You
24. Sweet But Psycho
25. MIDDLE CHILD
26. Someone You Loved
27. Ran$om
28. Drip Too Hard
29. If I Can't Have You
30. Goodbyes
31. Money In The Grave
32. You Need To Calm Down
33. Please Me
34. ZEZE
35. Better Now
36. Youngblood (2ND YEAR @ 36)
37. Speechless
38. Panini
39. BUWYG, IB
40. Money
41. Pop Out
42. A Lot
43. MIA
44. Look Back At It
45. Beautiful People
46. ME!
47. Thotiana
48. Beautiful Crazy
49. God's Country
50. Lucid Dreams
51. Whiskey Glasses
52. Mo Bamba
53. Wake Up In The Sky
54. Be Alright
55. Pure Water
56. The Git Up
57. Close To Me
58. Hey Look Ma, I Made It
59. Circles
60. Taki Taki
61. The London
62. Beer Never Broke My Heart
63. You Say
64. Envy Me
65. Highest In The Room
66. Con Calma
67. When the Party's Over
68. Murder on My Mind
69. Act Up
70. Trampoline
71. I Like It
72. Leave Me Alone
73. Breathin
74. My Type
75. Only Human
76. Close Friends
77. Bury a Friend
78. Baby
79. Baby Shark
80. How Do You Sleep?
81. Knockin' Boots
82. Worth It
83. Boyfriend
84. Hot Girl Summer
85. Trip
86. Swervin
87. Rumor
88. Tequila
89. Cash Shit
90. One Thing Right
91. Look What God Gave Her
92. Clout
93. Good as You
94. Love Lies
95. Shotta Flow
96. Talk You Out of It
97. 10,000 Hours
98. All To Myself
99. Eyes on You
100. Robbery

101. Beautiful
102. Never Really Over
103. GIRL
104. Walk Me Home
105. On Chill
106. Lover
107. Go Loko
108. Here Tonight
109. AIWFCIY
110. Otro Trago

As HITR and 10,000 Hours fall, On Chill and Lover should rise and take their spots, leaving one open spot for one of many options - I expect it to still be HITR but Ballin, Good As Hell, Hot, Robbery, Never Really Over, GIRL, AIWFCIY and Walk Me Home could all pose threats, and for no Nov. 24 the thought process hold´s the same.

[Dadude#0839]

Yess trampoline is locked