Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Deleted]

Jul 31, 2014 16:38:02 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak (2014)
2	1	Pharrell Williams	Happy	1,174,930	11	30	1
1	2	Katy Perry	Dark Horse	1,171,380	20	36	1

YEEEEEEEEEEEES!!!!!!!!!!!

[Daniel Collins]

Mar 20, 2014 9:08:44 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Mar 20, 2014 8:58:19 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

Week 17: Up to week dated 3/29/14

Happy will overtake in about 7-9 weeks

Apr 27, 2014 12:39:13 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Looks like by the 5/31/2014 or 6/7/2014 chart Happy will be #1

May 9, 2014 9:51:45 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

In 5-6 weeks, if all goes well, Happy will dethrone Dark Horse and hopefully will stay there

May 16, 2014 7:52:15 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

3-4 weeks until Happy takes over...although its weekly lead over Dark Horse is decreasing :(

May 29, 2014 13:44:56 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Happy will probably pass Dark Horse in 4-5 weeks

Uh oh

[Deleted]

Better late than never lol

[Mr. Thonk Eyes]

Jul 31, 2014 17:36:05 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Better late than never lol

Missom accomplished!!! (Well for you I didn't accomplish shit) but it's better than DH lol I used to LOVE it but it burned out on me too

[imbondz]

So is it possible DH can retake the lead?

[Daniel Collins]

imbondz If "Dark Horse" could beat "Happy" on the Hot 100. Now, it seems unlikely. Happy is at #11 while Dark Horse is at #20. By next week, "Happy" might still be in the top 15 while "Dark Horse" would be out of the top 20.

[Deleted]

Happy will stay 11-13 on next week's Hot 100 lol. "Summer" will fall below it, Jessie J will debut above it and possibly "Boom Clap" and "Love Runs Out" will rise above it. Would be hilarious if "Happy" returned to the top 10 lmao
Edit: never mind, you're right Daniel, it will be 11-15. I forgot also about "Bailando" and "All About the Bass".

[markb]

Aug 1, 2014 9:26:56 GMT -5 imbondz said:

So is it possible DH can retake the lead?

Yes it is, and it will! Everyone has different methods for counting points, on the other forum DH is still above happy!

[Gary]

Aug 2, 2014 10:55:27 GMT -5 markb said:

Aug 1, 2014 9:26:56 GMT -5 imbondz said:

So is it possible DH can retake the lead?

Yes it is, and it will! Everyone has different methods for counting points, on the other forum DH is still above happy!

Thank you.

Something that lost sometimes in this thread, is that it is not official.  As the thread title says, it is someone's "prediction" as to what he chart will look like and not an official Billboard tally

It is possible Happy has been ahead of Dark Horse for some time

It is also possible Happy hasn't caught up yet.

It is also possible All Of Me, could work its way into this discussion too

[Deleted]

Although the fact is, if you include the 2013 weeks, Dark Horse is the much bigger hit.

but for the Year End #1....who knows? I'm going to say Happy #1 and Dark Horse #2 but you never know.

For the rest of the top 10, I'll guess....All Of Me #3, Fancy #4, Rude #5, Problem #6, Counting Stars #7, Talk Dirty #8, Tinber #9, Am I Wrong #10.

Easier to read format:

1. Happy

2. Dark Horse

3. All Of Me

4. Fancy

5. Rude

6. Problem

7. Counting Stars

8. Talk Dirty

9. Timber

10. Am I Wrong

11. Stay With Me

12. Pompeii

13. Turn Down For What

14. The Monster
15. Say Something

etc.

[Deleted]

Aug 2, 2014 13:30:42 GMT -5 @icantthinkofaname said:

Although the fact is, if you include the 2013 weeks, Dark Horse is the much bigger hit.

but for the Year End #1....who knows? I'm going to say Happy #1 and Dark Horse #2 but you never know.

For the rest of the top 10, I'll guess....All Of Me #3, Fancy #4, Rude #5, Problem #6, Counting Stars #7, Talk Dirty #8, Tinber #9, Am I Wrong #10.

Easier to read format:

1. Happy

2. Dark Horse

3. All Of Me

4. Fancy

5. Rude

6. Problem

7. Counting Stars

8. Talk Dirty

9. Timber

10. Am I Wrong

11. Stay With Me

12. Pompeii

13. Turn Down For What

14. Say Something

etc.

Cunting Stars will be top 5, Turn Down for What will be 10 or 11, The Monster will be top 15, and Pompeii will be top 10. Am I Wrong, Say Something and Stay wirh Me will not be that high (although close). Tak Dirty will be #6 probably. Timber will be #10 or #11.

[Deleted]

Aug 2, 2014 14:26:10 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Aug 2, 2014 13:30:42 GMT -5 @icantthinkofaname said:

Although the fact is, if you include the 2013 weeks, Dark Horse is the much bigger hit.

but for the Year End #1....who knows? I'm going to say Happy #1 and Dark Horse #2 but you never know.

For the rest of the top 10, I'll guess....All Of Me #3, Fancy #4, Rude #5, Problem #6, Counting Stars #7, Talk Dirty #8, Tinber #9, Am I Wrong #10.

Easier to read format:

1. Happy

2. Dark Horse

3. All Of Me

4. Fancy

5. Rude

6. Problem

7. Counting Stars

8. Talk Dirty

9. Timber

10. Am I Wrong

11. Stay With Me

12. Pompeii

13. Turn Down For What

14. Say Something

etc.

Cunting Stars will be top 5, Turn Down for What will be 10 or 11, The Monster will be top 15, and Pompeii will be top 10. Am I Wrong, Say Something and Stay wirh Me will not be that high (although close). Tak Dirty will be #6 probably. Timber will be #10 or #11.

I forgot about The Monster. And you're probably right about AIM SS & SWM. Idk though, we'll find out in December.

[jarhys]

Maybe like this:

 1. Happy
 2. Dark Horse
 3. All Of Me
 4. Fancy
 5. Counting Stars
 6. Talk Dirty
 7. Problem
 8. Turn Down For What
 9. Rude
10. Pompeii

11. Timber
12. Am I Wrong
13. The Monster
14. Stay With Me
15. Say Something

[Deleted]

Aug 4, 2014 2:48:23 GMT -5 jarhys said:

Maybe like this:

 1. Happy
 2. Dark Horse
 3. All Of Me
 4. Fancy
 5. Counting Stars
 6. Talk Dirty
 7. Problem
 8. Turn Down For What
 9. Rude
10. Pompeii

11. Timber
12. Am I Wrong
13. The Monster
14. Stay With Me
15. Say Something

I don't think TDFW will be that high. Maybe #10 or #11.

[Daniel Collins]

Week 37: Up to week dated 8/16/2014

Formula: Sales/12 + Airplay/8,000 + Streams/600

Hot 100	Song	Points	% Streams	% Sales	% Radio
1	Rude	45,650	29%	24%	46%
2	Stay With Me	42,040	24%	27%	48%
3	Fancy	36,810	43%	24%	32%
4	Am I Wrong	34,150	21%	19%	60%
5	Problem	32,220	36%	23%	42%
6	Bang Bang	27,790	18%	69%	13%
7	Maps	27,700	20%	42%	38%
8	All About That Bass	23,830	29%	59%	12%
9	Chandelier	23,520	43%	34%	23%
10	Latch	23,200	19%	23%	58%

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak (2014)
1	1	Pharrell Williams	Happy	1,192,970	15	31	1
2	2	Katy Perry	Dark Horse	1,185,960	23	37	1
3	3	John Legend	All Of Me	1,079,610	12	37	1
4	4	OneRepublic	Counting Stars	888,830	35	37	2
5	5	Jason Derulo ft. 2 Chainz	Talk Dirty	845,900	42	33	3
6	6	Pitbull ft. Ke$ha	Timber	787,780	-	33	1
7	7	Iggy Azalea ft. Charli XCX	Fancy	769,110	3	22	1
8	8	Bastille	Pompeii	705,980	39	37	5
9	9	Eminem ft. Rihanna	The Monster	660,420	-	26	1
10	10	DJ Snake & Lil Jon	Turn Down For What	615,250	25	32	4
13	11	Ariana Grande ft. Iggy Azalea	Problem	611,800	5	14	2
11	12	A Great Big World & Christina Aguilera	Say Something	587,930	-	24	4
12	13	Lorde	Team	580,480	-	30	6
14	14	Passenger	Let Her Go	568,940	-	27	5
15	15	Lorde	Royals	554,020	-	24	1
16	16	Idina Menzel	Let It Go (IM)	550,650	-	33	5
17	17	Avicii	Wake Me Up	545,070	-	32	5
18	18	Imagine Dragons	Demons	537,500	-	31	6
19	19	One Direction	Story Of My Life	523,820	-	29	8
22	20	Magic!	Rude	474,120	1	15	1
20	21	American Authors	Best Day Of My Life	433,230	-	35	11
21	22	Beyonce ft. Jay-Z	Drunk In Love	430,370	-	20	2
25	23	Nico And Vinz	Am I Wrong	421,460	4	16	4
23	24	Ellie Goulding	Burn	410,830	-	25	13
24	25	Miley Cyrus	Wrecking Ball	388,560	-	19	1
26	26	Kid Ink ft. Chris Brown	Show Me	377,500	-	29	13
31	27	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	374,200	2	17	2
29	28	Chris Brown ft. Lil Wayne, French Montana, Too $hort, Tyga	Loyal	371,750	34	29	9
27	29	Katy Perry	Roar	370,200	-	20	7
30	30	Calvin Harris	Summer	363,010	14	20	7
28	31	Justin Timberlake	Not A Bad Thing	361,710	-	22	8
32	32	Aloe Blacc	The Man	329,590	-	20	8
33	33	Paramore	Ain't It Fun	322,850	41	23	10
34	34	Jason Derulo ft. Snoop Dogg	Wiggle	319,350	21	14	5
36	35	Florida Georgia Line ft. Luke Bryan	This Is How We Roll	288,640	46	26	15
35	36	Drake ft. Majid Jordan	Hold On We're Going Home	284,810	-	18	9
37	37	Trey Songz	Na Na	283,160	49	28	21
39	38	MKTo	Classic	282,420	29	25	14
41	39	Disclosure ft. Sam Smith	Latch	278,250	10	20	7
38	40	Imagine Dragons	Radioactive	272,240	-	23	13
40	41	YG ft. Jeezy & Rich Homie Quan	My Hitta	268,410	-	21	19
42	42	Avicii	Hey Brother	254,070	-	23	16
45	43	Ed Sheeran	Sing	248,880	72	17	13
43	44	Luke Bryan	Play It Again	244,510	-	20	14
44	45	Brantley Gilbert	Bottoms Up	243,250	-	25	20
46	46	Martin Garrix	Animals	236,570	-	25	21
47	47	Rixton	Me And My Broken Heart	222,120	59	19	14
48	48	Sara Bareilles	Brave	206,670	-	19	23
49	49	The Neighbourhood	Sweater Weather	204,640	-	14	14
50	50	Robin Thicke ft. TI, Pharrell	Blurred Lines	193,790	-	17	19
51	51	Lady Gaga ft. R.Kelly	Do What U Want	193,740	-	15	16
52	52	Naughty Boy ft. Sam Smith	La La La	189,680	-	20	19
54	53	Katy Perry	Birthday	186,160	97	17	17
53	54	Shakira ft. Rihanna	Can't Remember To Forget You	183,840	-	19	15
55	55	Mike-Will-Made-It ft. Miley Cyrus, Wiz Khalifa , Juicy J	23	181,480	-	14	14
56	56	Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Schoolboy Q and Hollis	White Walls	180,670	-	13	15
57	57	Beyonce	Partition	180,140	-	21	23
58	58	Zedd ft. Hayley Williams	Stay The Night	177,700	-	13	18
70	59	Sia	Chandelier	171,070	9	13	9
59	60	Katy Perry	Unconditionally	170,880	-	16	14
60	61	Miley Cyrus	Adore You	170,720	-	16	21
62	62	Jake Owen	Beachin'	168,380	68	19	26
66	63	OneRepublic	Love Runs Out	167,680	20	13	15
61	64	Luke Bryan	Drink A Beer	167,150	-	18	31
63	65	Demi Lovato	Neon Lights	161,360	-	20	36
82	66	Maroon 5	Maps	159,360	7	7	6
64	67	TY Dolla $ign & B.O.B.	Paranoid	157,160	-	20	29
65	68	Eric Church	Give Me Back My Hometown	155,100	-	20	36
69	69	5 Seconds Of Summer	She Looks So Perfect	154,100	81	18	24
74	70	Michael Jackson & Justin Timberlake	Love Never Felt So Good	151,160	74	14	9
67	71	AWOLNATION	Sail	150,940	-	16	32
68	72	Christina Perri	Human	149,360	-	20	31
71	73	Jason Aldean	When She Says Baby	147,320	-	20	38
72	74	Demi Lovato	Let It Go	147,000	-	20	38
88	75	Enrique Iglesias ft. Decemer Bueno, Gente De Zona	Bailando	146,720	13	14	13
73	76	John Newman	Love Me Again	146,550	-	18	30
75	77	Jerrod Niemann	Drink To That All Night	145,330	-	20	34
81	78	Kongos	Come With Me Now	143,130	44	18	31
76	79	Thomas Rhett	Get Me Some Of That	141,310	-	20	41
77	80	Jhene Aiko	The Worst	139,820	-	20	43
78	81	Florida Georgia Line	Stay	139,350	-	15	28
79	82	Rascal Flatts	Rewind	138,080	-	20	38
80	83	Capital Cities	Safe & Sound	136,840	-	14	28
109	84	Charli XCX	Boom Clap	131,860	11	9	11
83	85	Pitbull ft. G.R.L.	Wild Wild Love	131,500	-	18	30
84	86	Young Money ft. Drake	Trophies	129,880	-	20	50
85	87	Keith Urban	Cop Car	129,560	-	18	41
86	88	Miranda Lambert	Automatic	127,900	-	19	35
87	89	Cole Swindell	Chillin It	127,880	-	15	28
100	90	Coldplay	A Sky Full Of Stars	127,340	36	14	10
89	91	Lady Gaga	Applause	126,310	-	9	14
90	92	Brett Eldredge	Beat Of The Music	125,950	-	20	44
91	93	Dierks Bentley	I Hold On	124,190	-	19	40
92	94	YG ft. Drake	Who Do You Love	123,900	-	20	54
93	95	Blake Shelton	Doing What She Likes	123,520	-	17	35
94	96	David Nail	Whatever She's Got	122,400	-	14	35
95	97	Eminem	Rap God	121,050	-	15	33
110	98	Lee Brice	I Don't Dance	121,000	33	16	33
96	99	Frankie Ballard	Helluva Life	120,950	-	20	51
97	100	Justin Moore	Lettin' The Night Roll	120,350	-	20	49

Other Top 20 Songs:

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak (2014)
136	119	Becky G	Shower	101,750	17	9	16
165	140	Clean Bandit ft. Jess Glyne	Rather Be	82,590	16	8	16
174	150	Ariana Grande ft. Zedd	Break Free	76,480	18	5	15
234	192	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	48,620	8	4	8
219	194	Iggy Azalea ft. Rita Ora	Black Widow	47,490	19	5	19
NEW	231	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	27,790	6	1	6

[Mr. Thonk Eyes]

PPPPPLLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSEEEEEE let Counting Stars br ahead of Fancy

[Daniel Collins]

Mr. Thonk Eyes I don't think it's possible. "Fancy" is still in the top 10 while "Counting Stars" is already going out of the chart. "Counting Stars" would still be in the top 5 anyway.

After "Fancy" , I don't think "Problem", "Rude" or whatever can surpass CS at this point.

[Mr. Thonk Eyes]

Aug 9, 2014 1:02:32 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

Mr. Thonk Eyes I don't think it's possible. "Fancy" is still in the top 10 while "Counting Stars" is already going out of the chart. Even if that'd happen, "Counting Stars" would still be in the top 5. I don't think "Problem", "Rude" or whatever can surpass CS at this point.

But I think Fancy is terrible so I want CS to be higher DAMMIT!!

[Daniel Collins]

Mr. Thonk Eyes "Counting Stars" is still a bigger hit in overall Hot 100 performance :)

[Mr. Thonk Eyes]

Aug 9, 2014 1:09:21 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

Mr. Thonk Eyes "Counting Stars" is still a bigger hit in overall Hot 100 performance :)

I still have hope, delusional hope, but hope nonetheless

[Deleted]

wait for the decade-end chart to see where CS will be placed :)

[Daniel Collins]

Aug 9, 2014 1:12:19 GMT -5 @smirjal said:

wait for the All-Time decade-end chart to see where CS will be placed :)

Fixed :)

[velaxti]

I really hope Turn Down For What gets to be in the year-end top 10!

[jarhys]

Dark Horse at 16 and Happy at 21 this week. How did this happen?

[Daniel Collins]

^The video release of Katy's 5th single boost DH's sales and streaming.

[brady47]

1 Happy
2 Dark Horse
3 All Of Me
4 Fancy
5 Counting Stars
6 Problem
7 Talk Dirty

8-10 I have no idea about...I'm thinking it might be Timber/The Monster/ Rude / Stay With Me

[jarhys]

Here's my prediction:
1. Happy
2. Dark Horse
3. All Of Me
4. Fancy
5. Counting Stars
6. Talk Dirty
7. Problem
8. Timber
9. Pompeii
10. Rude

[Deleted]

So somehow Dark Horse went back up above Happy this week. Yeah, unbelievable. Well anyway, I hope that's just for one week and things will be back to normal next week. Seems to be dropping on itunes. Was it some semi-viral video that brought it back up or something?

[Daniel Collins]

@markg94 Things could go back to normal by next week or two. This week doesn't bother me that much tbh.

P.S. I can't post the update for this week because I don't have data for Airplay yet. Mediabase doesn't have the exact Wednesday update so I can't use it, I'm currently waiting for Kworb's site to get those updates I need.

[imbondz]

Happy has outlasted Dark Horse and All of Me in sales. Id be surprised if it's not #1 year end