Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Daniel Collins]

Nov 7, 2014 3:12:16 GMT -5 Kris said:

Nov 1, 2014 22:48:52 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

1 Party Rock Anthem
2 We Found Love
3 Somebody That I Used To Know
4 Rolling In The Deep
5 Blurred Lines
6 Happy
7 Call Me Maybe
8 Dark Horse
9 Royals
10 Moves Like Jagger
11 Just The Way You Are
12 Thrift Shop
13 Tik Tok
14 We Are Young
15 All Of Me
16 One More Night
17 Radioactive
18 Sexy And I Know It
19 Counting Stars
20 Someone Like You

Your predictions are nearly spot on. I'm actually quite surprised Tik Tok didn't make the official list due to it's 9 weeks at #1, but I guess it's chart run (some in 2009) wasn't as long. 

The one you quoted was 1 week ahead. That is why "Happy" and "All Of Me" moved 1 position.
This was what I predicted using the same timeframe posted on the decades' thread:

Oct 31, 2014 18:00:00 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

PREDICTION for 2010s:

1 Party Rock Anthem
2 We Found Love
3 Somebody That I Used To Know
4 Rolling In The Deep
5 Blurred Lines*
6 Call Me Maybe
7 Happy*
8 Dark Horse*
9 Royals*
10 Moves Like Jagger
11 Just The Way You Are
12 Thrift Shop*
13 Tik Tok*
14 We Are Young
15 One More Night
16 All Of Me
17 Radioactive
18 Sexy And I Know It
19 Counting Stars
20 Someone Like You

21 E.T.
22 Give Me Everything
23 Firework
24 Love The Way You Lie
25 Locked Out of Heaven

Versus the real one:
1. "Party Rock Anthem" - LMFAO Featuring Lauren Bennett & GoonRock
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: July 16, 2011

2. "We Found Love" - Rihanna Featuring Calvin Harris
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: November 12, 2011

3. "Somebody That I Used To Know" - Gotye Featuring Kimbra
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: April 28, 2012

4. "Rolling In The Deep" - Adele
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: May 21, 2011

5. "Blurred Lines" - Robin Thicke Featuring T.I. and Pharrell
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: June 22, 2013

6. "Call Me Maybe" - Carly Rae Jepsen
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: June 23, 2012

7. "Happy" - Pharrell Williams
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: March 8, 2014

8. "Royals" - Lorde
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: October 12, 2013

9. "Dark Horse" - Katy Perry Featuring Juicy J
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: February 8, 2014

10. "Moves Like Jagger" - Maroon 5 Featuring Christina Aguilera
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: September 10, 2011

11. "Just The Way You Are" - Bruno Mars
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: October 2, 2010

12. "Thrift Shop" - Macklemore & Ryan Lewis Featuring Wanz
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: February 2, 2013

13. "One More Night" - Maroon 5
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: September 29, 2012

14. "All Of Me" - John Legend
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: May 17, 2014

15. "We Are Young" - Fun. Featuring Janelle Monae
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: March 17, 2012

16. "Counting Stars" - OneRepublic
Hot 100 Peak Position: 2, Peak Date: January 18, 2014

17. "Radioactive" - Imagine Dragons
Hot 100 Peak Position: 3, Peak Date: July 6, 2013

18. "Sexy And I Know It" - LMFAO
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: January 7, 2012

19. "Someone Like You" - Adele
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: September 17, 2011

20. "E.T." - Katy Perry Featuring Kanye West
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: April 9, 2011

-Regarding "Tik Tok", I think they used (January 2010- present).I used (December 2009-present) giving "Tik Tok" 4 more weeks than what they calculated.

[jjose712]

Oct 31, 2014 13:11:20 GMT -5 mamooshka said:

The UK Year End tally is wrapping up, and it looks like AOM will also finish in third spot there.

The infectious 'Happy' is in the lead spot, followed by local act, Clean Bandit (Rather Be).

4. Let It Go
5. Timber
6. Dark Horse
7. Counting Stars
8. Money On My Mind (Sam Smith)
9. Waves (Mr Probz)
10.Riptide (Vance Joy)

Source: Official UK Charts Co.

Are you sure? Let it go peaked at 11 on UK, and as far as i know Stay with me was higher on the year end chart that Money on my mind.
And Riptide was only number 10 on UK, so i doubt that list is correct

[mamooshka]

The Official UK Charts Co. evolved from the early NME publication, and is generally recognized as the foremost music authority for that country.

Here are the top songs of 2014 in the UK, as of Week 44. The rankings continue to change with a few weeks remaining. Incidentally, 'Money' topped the charts in Mar, 'Riptide' was in the charts for most of the year, having sold over 200k copies as of May, and 'Let It Go' has sold >400k copies as of Jun.

Rank Artist/Title
1 Pharrell Williams/Happy
2 John Legend/All Of Me
3 Clean Bandit feat. Jess Glynne/Rather Be
4 Idina Menzel/Let It Go
5 Pitbull feat. Kesha/Timber
6 Mr Probz/Waves
7 OneRepublic/Counting Stars
8 Vance Joy/Riptide
9 Sam Smith/Money On My Mind
10 Katy Perry feat. Juicy J/Dark Horse
11 Iggy Azalea feat. Charli XCX/Fancy
12 Sam Smith/Stay With Me
13 Ellie Goulding/How Long Will I Love You
14 Kiesza/Hideaway
15 Chris Brown feat. Lil Wayne/Loyal
16 Calvin Harris/Summer
17 Ella Henderson/Ghost
18 Route 94 feat. Jess Glynne/My Love
19 Paloma Faith/Only Love Can Hurt Like This
20 George Ezra/Budapest

For detailed info on how the UK charts are compiled, this reference can be used.
c0903002.cdn.cloudfiles.rackspacecloud.com/6914-official-uk-charts-singles-chart-rules-april-2013.pdf

[Daniel Collins]

Week 50: Up to week dated 11/15/2014

Formula: Sales/12 + Airplay/8,700 + Streams/550

Hot 100	Song	Points	% Streams	%Sales	%Radio
1	Shake It Off	50,770	38%	31%	31%
2	All About That Bass	47,430	46%	23%	31%
3	Habits (Stay High)	30,900	33%	21%	46%
4	Animals (2)	30,350	30%	30%	40%
5	Bang Bang	28,030	37%	21%	42%
6	Black Widow	25,630	35%	22%	43%
7	Don't Tell 'Em	23,970	26%	22%	52%
8	Hot Boy	23,290	70%	14%	16%
9	Don't	20,610	27%	22%	51%
10	Take Me To Church	19,710	39%	44%	17%

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
1	1	Pharrell Williams	Happy	1,367,580	42	44	1
2	2	Katy Perry	Dark Horse	1,322,250	-	48	1
3	3	John Legend	All Of Me	1,288,620	39	50	1
4	4	Iggy Azalea ft. Charli XCX	Fancy	1,015,790	41	35	1
5	5	OneRepublic	Counting Stars	984,380	-	46	2
6	6	Jason Derulo ft. 2 Chainz	Talk Dirty	850,400	-	33	3
8	7	Magic!	Rude	825,560	21	28	1
7	8	Ariana Grande ft. Iggy Azalea	Problem	816,840	-	25	2
9	9	Pitbull ft. Ke$ha	Timber	798,030	-	33	1
10	10	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	771,790	11	30	2
12	11	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	754,880	2	17	1
11	12	Bastille	Pompeii	738,230	-	39	5
14	13	Nico And Vinz	Am I Wrong	688,740	31	29	4
13	14	DJ Snake & Lil Jon	Turn Down For What	681,650	-	37	4
15	15	Eminem ft. Rihanna	The Monster	667,920	-	26	1
19	16	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	620,390	1	11	1
16	17	A Great Big World & Christina Aguilera	Say Something	590,430	-	24	4
17	18	Lorde	Team	583,380	-	30	6
18	19	Passenger	Let Her Go	571,440	-	27	5
20	20	Idina Menzel	Let It Go (IM)	559,150	-	33	5
21	21	Lorde	Royals	556,520	-	24	1
22	22	Avicii	Wake Me Up	552,570	-	32	5
23	23	Imagine Dragons	Demons	545,000	-	31	6
24	24	One Direction	Story Of My Life	528,820	-	29	8
25	25	Sia	Chandelier	479,620	13	26	8
26	26	Disclosure ft. Sam Smith	Latch	470,080	45	33	7
27	27	Chris Brown ft. Lil Wayne, French Montana, Too $hort, Tyga	Loyal	452,190	-	36	9
31	28	Iggy Azalea ft. Rita Ora	Black Widow	451,820	6	18	3
28	29	American Authors	Best Day Of My Life	449,680	-	35	11
29	30	Calvin Harris	Summer	442,650	-	26	7
33	31	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	442,160	5	14	3
32	32	Maroon 5	Maps	436,520	32	20	6
30	33	Beyonce ft. Jay-Z	Drunk In Love	432,870	-	20	2
35	34	Charli XCX	Boom Clap	414,920	36	22	8
34	35	Ellie Goulding	Burn	410,830	-	25	13
38	36	Nicki Minaj	Anaconda	404,160	38	13	2
36	37	Jason Derulo ft. Snoop Dogg	Wiggle	397,290	-	21	5
37	38	Miley Cyrus	Wrecking Ball	393,560	-	19	1
41	39	Ariana Grande ft. Zedd	Break Free	391,580	29	18	4
40	40	Enrique Iglesias ft. Decemer Bueno, Gente De Zona	Bailando	390,910	40	27	12
39	41	Kid Ink ft. Chris Brown	Show Me	390,550	-	29	13
42	42	Katy Perry	Roar	377,800	-	20	7
45	43	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	376,670	3	23	3
43	44	Justin Timberlake	Not A Bad Thing	367,910	-	22	8
44	45	Clean Bandit ft. Jess Glyne	Rather Be	365,900	15	21	10
46	46	Paramore	Ain't It Fun	341,000	-	24	10
49	47	Jeremih ft. YG	Don't Tell 'Em	339,340	7	19	6
47	48	Aloe Blacc	The Man	328,640	-	20	8
48	49	Florida Georgia Line ft. Luke Bryan	This Is How We Roll	323,390	-	28	15
50	50	MKTo	Classic	307,670	-	27	14
51	51	Coldplay	A Sky Full Of Stars	302,770	-	26	10
52	52	Imagine Dragons	Radioactive	296,640	-	23	13
53	53	Drake ft. Majid Jordan	Hold On We're Going Home	295,360	-	18	9
54	54	Trey Songz	Na Na	293,810	-	28	21
55	55	YG ft. Jeezy & Rich Homie Quan	My Hitta	279,410	-	21	19
56	56	Ed Sheeran	Sing	269,230	-	20	13
57	57	Avicii	Hey Brother	265,370	-	23	16
58	58	Martin Garrix	Animals	262,420	-	25	21
59	59	Tinashe ft. Schoolboy Q	2 On	261,070	-	24	24
60	60	Brantley Gilbert	Bottoms Up	255,800	-	25	20
61	61	Luke Bryan	Play It Again	252,510	-	20	14
66	62	Ed Sheeran	Don't	250,030	9	21	9
62	63	OneRepublic	Love Runs Out	249,940	-	20	15
63	64	Becky G	Shower	246,180	-	20	16
64	65	Rixton	Me And My Broken Heart	241,220	-	20	14
70	66	Bobby Shmurda	Hot Boy	237,440	8	14	8
68	67	Jason Aldean	Burnin' It Down	236,000	37	15	12
67	68	Florida Georgia Line	Dirt	235,070	52	17	11
69	69	Echosmith	Cool Kids	231,700	17	17	13
65	70	Sara Bareilles	Brave	230,670	-	19	23
75	71	Jason Derulo	Trumpets	220,300	14	23	14
71	72	Kenny Chesney	American Kids	218,260	85	20	23
72	73	Robin Thicke ft. TI, Pharrell	Blurred Lines	212,690	-	17	19
73	74	The Neighbourhood	Sweater Weather	212,490	-	14	14
74	75	Lady Antebellum	Bartender	202,250	-	20	31
76	76	Dierks Bentley	Drunk On A Plane	198,460	-	20	27
77	77	Mike-Will-Made-It ft. Miley Cyrus, Wiz Khalifa , Juicy J	23	197,130	-	14	14
78	78	Lady Gaga ft. R.Kelly	Do What U Want	195,540	-	15	16
79	79	Naughty Boy ft. Sam Smith	La La La	195,230	-	20	19
99	80	Rich Gang ft. Young Thug, Rich Homie Quan	Lifestyle	193,990	16	16	16
80	81	Luke Bryan	Drink A Beer	189,700	-	18	31
81	82	Katy Perry	Birthday	189,560	-	18	17
91	83	TI ft. Iggy Azalea	No Mediocre	189,020	68	20	33
82	84	Shakira ft. Rihanna	Can't Remember To Forget You	188,840	-	19	15
83	85	Beyonce	Partition	188,390	-	21	23
84	86	Lil Wayne ft. Drake	Believe Me	188,060	-	20	26
85	87	Michael Jackson & Justin Timberlake	Love Never Felt So Good	187,710	-	20	9
115	88	Maroon 5	Animals (2)	187,700	4	11	4
86	89	Zedd ft. Hayley Williams	Stay The Night	185,900	-	13	18
87	90	Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Schoolboy Q and Hollis	White Walls	185,570	-	13	15
88	91	Kongos	Come With Me Now	185,450	-	21	31
89	92	Jake Owen	Beachin'	184,780	-	20	26
90	93	Eric Church	Give Me Back My Hometown	184,350	-	20	36
92	94	Demi Lovato	Neon Lights	182,160	-	20	36
93	95	Schoolboy Q ft. BJ The Chicago Kid	Studio	181,220	-	20	38
106	96	Sam Hunt	Leave The Night On	180,330	30	19	30
94	97	Katy Perry	Unconditionally	178,980	-	16	14
95	98	5 Seconds Of Summer	She Looks So Perfect	178,700	-	20	24
96	99	Lee Brice	I Don't Dance	177,800	-	20	33
97	100	Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood	Somethin' Bad	176,670	-	20	19

Bubbling Under:

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
104	102	5 Seconds Of Summer	Amnesia	176,320	65	18	16
114	106	Chris Brown ft. Usher, Rick Ross	New Flame	172,150	27	16	27
122	116	Drake	0 to 100 / The Catch Up	156,620	44	15	35
134	123	Vance Joy	Riptide	146,700	48	19	47
128	124	Katy Perry	This Is How We Do	145,490	67	14	24
187	171	Hozier	Take Me To Church	109,170	10	12	9
184	178	Calvin Harris ft. John Newman	Blame	107,390	19	8	19
198	181	Sam Smith	I'm Not The Only One	100,410	12	9	12
263	240	I Love Makonnen ft. Drake	Tuesday	50,280	20	6	20
453	324	Taylor Swift	Blank Space	15,730	18	1	18

[Dylan :)]

Amnesia should be in next week. Two questions: how long is left and what is 101?

[rimetm]

Nov 8, 2014 12:20:00 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Amnesia should be in next week. Two questions: how long is left and what is 101?

There are 2 more weeks that will affect this year's chart. #101 is "Sail" / AWOLNATION with 176,340 points, and since "Amnesia" is gaining around 5k-7k points depending on how hard it falls, it should easily beat it and everything from "Somethin' Bad" to at least "Studio" or maybe even "Neon Lights" by next week and up to "Love Never Felt So Good" by the end.

Also, with this week's update, to change the topic slightly, here's the DDR project news:

The following song is now available for claims:

Lifestyle / Rich Gang feat. Young Thug But I know no one's going to claim it because basically none of the rap songs have been claimed...

Also, a preview for Sing is now up, stepped by Astroman129 and presented in glorious 60fps!

[Deleted]

All of Me will come close to Dark Horse (provided that it will be still on the chart the next two weeks). Hopefully in the official list AOM will come out on top

[Lahey's Lucky Star]

Well "Sail" needs to F*CKING DIE so GO 5SOS

[Deleted]

Yeah it looks like AATB might not pass TD. Rude, however, might! AATB looks like it will end up at #8.

[jdanton2]

Nov 8, 2014 17:47:23 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Yeah it looks like AATB might not pass TD. Rude, however, might! AATB looks like it will end up at #8.

alot of the songs that will end up above it have been on the the chart over twice as long and the others over 10 weeks more. if the chart was through the end of December and included last December it would end up at least at #6 or maybe #5.

[jjose712]

Nov 7, 2014 10:45:31 GMT -5 mamooshka said:

The Official UK Charts Co. evolved from the early NME publication, and is generally recognized as the foremost music authority for that country.

Here are the top songs of 2014 in the UK, as of Week 44. The rankings continue to change with a few weeks remaining. Incidentally, 'Money' topped the charts in Mar, 'Riptide' was in the charts for most of the year, having sold over 200k copies as of May, and 'Let It Go' has sold >400k copies as of Jun.

Rank Artist/Title
1 Pharrell Williams/Happy
2 John Legend/All Of Me
3 Clean Bandit feat. Jess Glynne/Rather Be
4 Idina Menzel/Let It Go
5 Pitbull feat. Kesha/Timber
6 Mr Probz/Waves
7 OneRepublic/Counting Stars
8 Vance Joy/Riptide
9 Sam Smith/Money On My Mind
10 Katy Perry feat. Juicy J/Dark Horse
11 Iggy Azalea feat. Charli XCX/Fancy
12 Sam Smith/Stay With Me
13 Ellie Goulding/How Long Will I Love You
14 Kiesza/Hideaway
15 Chris Brown feat. Lil Wayne/Loyal
16 Calvin Harris/Summer
17 Ella Henderson/Ghost
18 Route 94 feat. Jess Glynne/My Love
19 Paloma Faith/Only Love Can Hurt Like This
20 George Ezra/Budapest

For detailed info on how the UK charts are compiled, this reference can be used.
c0903002.cdn.cloudfiles.rackspacecloud.com/6914-official-uk-charts-singles-chart-rules-april-2013.pdf

Probably i was misleading this list from the biggest selling singles of the year which is different

1 Pharrell Williams/Happy
2 Clean Bandit feat. Jess Glynne/Rather Be
3 John Legend/All Of Me
4 Mr Probz/Waves
5 Pitbull feat. Kesha/Timber
6 Ella Henderson/Ghost
7 Sam Smith/Stay With Me
8 Route 94 feat. Jess Glynne/My love
9 Sigma/Nobody to love
10 Indina Menzel/Let it go
11 Kiesza/Hideaway
12 Katy Perry feat. Juicy J/Dark Horse
13 Ed Sheeran/Sing
14 Sam Smith/Money On My Mind
15 Duke Dumont ft Jax Jones/I got U
16 Magic/Rude
17 Calvin Harris/Summer
18 George Ezra/Budapest
19 Avicii/Hey Brother
20 Rita Ora/I will never let you down

[Deleted]

So it looks like this is going to be the top ten in two weeks when this is over (on this thread anyway):

1. Happy
2. Dark Horse
3. All of Me
4. Fancy
5. Counting Stars
6. Rude
7. Talk Dirty
8. All About That Bass
9. Problem
10. Stay With Me

Interesting how CS mirrored the band's own Apologize in so many ways. They both spent 25 weeks in the top 10 having peaked at #2 for multiple weeks, both had great longevity, AND they were in the 60s year-end of the year in which they debuted and #5 year-end of the following year. Amazing!

[rimetm]

Am I the only one who finds it odd that Nico & Vinz have potentially the 13th biggest song of the year and yet Black Star Elephant didn't even get a top 20 peak? I thought the album got some element of promotion, in addition to the (ironic) novelty of a mainstream Norwegian act finally crossing over.

[mamooshka]

Nov 9, 2014 14:12:59 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

So it looks like this is going to be the top ten in two weeks when this is over (on this thread anyway):

1. Happy
2. Dark Horse
3. All of Me
4. Fancy
5. Counting Stars
6. Rude
7. Talk Dirty
8. All About That Bass
9. Problem
10. Stay With Me

Interesting how CS mirrored the band's own Apologize in so many ways. They both spent 25 weeks in the top 10 having peaked at #2 for multiple weeks, both had great longevity, AND they were in the 60s year-end of the year in which they debuted and #5 year-end of the following year. Amazing!

Looks about right.  However .... "Stay" and "Problem" will be IMHO oh so close in the final tally.  Maybe within a 5 point difference?

[Deleted]

Nov 9, 2014 18:06:11 GMT -5 mamooshka said:

Nov 9, 2014 14:12:59 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

So it looks like this is going to be the top ten in two weeks when this is over (on this thread anyway):

1. Happy
2. Dark Horse
3. All of Me
4. Fancy
5. Counting Stars
6. Rude
7. Talk Dirty
8. All About That Bass
9. Problem
10. Stay With Me

Interesting how CS mirrored the band's own Apologize in so many ways. They both spent 25 weeks in the top 10 having peaked at #2 for multiple weeks, both had great longevity, AND they were in the 60s year-end of the year in which they debuted and #5 year-end of the following year. Amazing!

Looks about right. However .... "Stay" and "Problem" will be IMHO oh so close in the final tally. Maybe within a 5 point difference?

yeah at first glance I was thinking it would be SWM at #9 with P at #10 before I did calculations  If they're close enough in points (as will be likely the case with DH and AOM) then the official Billboard year-end chart may differ from Daniel's prediction. 

[Daniel Collins]

People should accept the fact that "Dark Horse" is #2

[Deleted]

Nov 9, 2014 22:40:31 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

People should accept the fact that "Dark Horse" is #2

I hope you're wrong about that (and the year-end chart of my personal chart will show that it's not because I dislike DH)

[johonmilla]

Nov 9, 2014 22:45:04 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Nov 9, 2014 22:40:31 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

People should accept the fact that "Dark Horse" is #2

I hope you're wrong about that (and the year-end chart of my personal chart will show that it's not because I dislike DH)

I hope he's wrong too. It should be #1, happy is annoying while Dark Horse is hit of the decade.

[Joey]

Nov 10, 2014 11:44:49 GMT -5 johonmilla said:

Nov 9, 2014 22:45:04 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

I hope you're wrong about that (and the year-end chart of my personal chart will show that it's not because I dislike DH)

I hope he's wrong too. It should be #1, happy is annoying while Dark Horse is hit of the decade.

Please tell me you're kidding.

[Kris]

Happy is definitely an annoying and overrated song, but no way is Dark Horse #1 of the decade lol

[rimetm]

I feel like "Happy" represents a fair number of things for this year in general. The song managed to pull in a casual crowd who reciprocated by giving it waves of giant radio, sales, and streaming numbers over the course of its leading weeks, which was also what allowed Taylor Swift to dominate this season. As a movie crossover, it created an identity of its own that ended up transcending its original movie, much like last year's "Cups" along with this year's "Let it Go". It also acts as the climax to the pop-soul revival that started up over the past year or so, giving way to the success of gospel-pop "Stay With Me", the longevity of religious-twinged anthem pop "Counting Stars", the haunting Gregorian "Pompeii", and the quickly-rising "Take Me to Church", which uses the atmosphere of the organic piano to give the listener the feeling of solemness and desperation. This may be the birth of a new trend, and the catalyst deserves some credit for that along with its success in general. "Dark Horse" did help to keep the trap-pop boom coming, with tracks like "Black Widow" and "Turn Down for What" earning success in its stead. However, this effort doesn't feel as novel because trap itself is derivative of rap, which itself started building such beats based on the R&B/Hiphop mainstream tracks of the early to mid 2000's. Though the label may be new and the beats more electric, it appears more as an effort of return to the last movement of pop music, while this religious/soul movement digs deeper into the past to give a breath of fresh air. Another notable thing is the status of Pharrell versus Katy. Pharrell helped build the aforementioned R&B/Hiphop sound of the 00's, and was mostly a behind-the-scenes producer, but it's with his unusually peppy, fast, and crowd-pleasing track that he finally gets his big break, and what a break it is! Any future success or failure will be irrelevant to Pharrell because of the legacy of this one track along with the buildup of his production in the time before. In other words, it's the conclusion to an underdog story of a one-hit wonder. Meanwhile, Katy Perry has a different set of standards, as a bonafide pop star. Her image has vaulted her far and she should be at the top with the impact of "Prism". However, something's snapped. Now, her fanbase is beginning to decline and her songs aren't being accepted nearly as easily as they used to be. The One of the Boys era was the swift rising action to her story with 3 top 10s including a topper, and the Teenage Dream era was absolute domination with 5 toppers and 1 other top 10 along with 1 more of each into the Complete Confection filler time, which showed just how powerful her presence was. The Prism era seemed like it would be big too with "Roar" establishing an image nice and quickly with a #1, but then...it all started to fizzle. "Unconditionally" seemed poised to do well, but then "Dark Horse" proved its powerful longevity and disproportionately took over the era. Even as it began to fade away, big-budget show-stopper single "Birthday" completely failed to live up to expectations, and "This is How We Do" was met with antipathy in general. What "Dark Horse" represents is the swan song for a former icon, and if the Teenage Dream era toppers couldn't dominate a year, losing coincidentally to movements that broke from the norm and set examples for the future (2011's Adele helping fuel both the female dominance of 2014, the revival of the minimalist piano-based songs like this year's "All of Me", and the building of the neo-soul movement that I've already covered, and 2012's Gotye paving the way for rock acts finally getting an opening to have success once more like Hozier, Imagine Dragons, and OneRepublic), then there isn't much justification this year in any case.

Still, looking back at this essay, it all devolves into a "do I think one deserves it?". Really, it's just the numbers that will decide, though needless to say if they skew one way, then I feel like it matches up well with the context of both this year and the progression of music over these past few years.

[Deleted]

Too long didn't read. *Kanye shrug*

[rimetm]

Yeah, I was going to bullet point, but then I didn't think I had enough points, then I started elaborating on stuff and then *BOOM* an unintentional essay.

[w6]

The 1,322,250 total you have for Dark Horse,does this include December from last year up to End Novembers points right?What is the total points for Dark Horse if you combine the points it got in September,October and November last year?

[w6]

^^

That novel written above,no disrespect,but I have no freaking idea what you said there,it doesn't make sense AT ALL.But as long as you understand what you are saying,good for you!

[Rocky]

Nov 11, 2014 3:03:04 GMT -5 w6 said:

The 1,322,250 total you have for Dark Horse,does this include December from last year up to End Novembers points right?

It does include December. As for the total points counting towards the 2013 chart year... I'm not sure, Daniel is the one who can answer that, but it had 9 weeks in 2013, so no more than 75,000 points.

[Future Captain]

Nov 10, 2014 22:08:33 GMT -5 rimetm said:

I feel like "Happy" represents a fair number of things for this year in general. The song managed to pull in a casual crowd who reciprocated by giving it waves of giant radio, sales, and streaming numbers over the course of its leading weeks, which was also what allowed Taylor Swift to dominate this season. As a movie crossover, it created an identity of its own that ended up transcending its original movie, much like last year's "Cups" along with this year's "Let it Go". It also acts as the climax to the pop-soul revival that started up over the past year or so, giving way to the success of gospel-pop "Stay With Me", the longevity of religious-twinged anthem pop "Counting Stars", the haunting Gregorian "Pompeii", and the quickly-rising "Take Me to Church", which uses the atmosphere of the organic piano to give the listener the feeling of solemness and desperation. This may be the birth of a new trend, and the catalyst deserves some credit for that along with its success in general. "Dark Horse" did help to keep the trap-pop boom coming, with tracks like "Black Widow" and "Turn Down for What" earning success in its stead. However, this effort doesn't feel as novel because trap itself is derivative of rap, which itself started building such beats based on the R&B/Hiphop mainstream tracks of the early to mid 2000's. Though the label may be new and the beats more electric, it appears more as an effort of return to the last movement of pop music, while this religious/soul movement digs deeper into the past to give a breath of fresh air. Another notable thing is the status of Pharrell versus Katy. Pharrell helped build the aforementioned R&B/Hiphop sound of the 00's, and was mostly a behind-the-scenes producer, but it's with his unusually peppy, fast, and crowd-pleasing track that he finally gets his big break, and what a break it is! Any future success or failure will be irrelevant to Pharrell because of the legacy of this one track along with the buildup of his production in the time before. In other words, it's the conclusion to an underdog story of a one-hit wonder. Meanwhile, Katy Perry has a different set of standards, as a bonafide pop star. Her image has vaulted her far and she should be at the top with the impact of "Prism". However, something's snapped. Now, her fanbase is beginning to decline and her songs aren't being accepted nearly as easily as they used to be. The One of the Boys era was the swift rising action to her story with 3 top 10s including a topper, and the Teenage Dream era was absolute domination with 5 toppers and 1 other top 10 along with 1 more of each into the Complete Confection filler time, which showed just how powerful her presence was. The Prism era seemed like it would be big too with "Roar" establishing an image nice and quickly with a #1, but then...it all started to fizzle. "Unconditionally" seemed poised to do well, but then "Dark Horse" proved its powerful longevity and disproportionately took over the era. Even as it began to fade away, big-budget show-stopper single "Birthday" completely failed to live up to expectations, and "This is How We Do" was met with antipathy in general. What "Dark Horse" represents is the swan song for a former icon, and if the Teenage Dream era toppers couldn't dominate a year, losing coincidentally to movements that broke from the norm and set examples for the future (2011's Adele helping fuel both the female dominance of 2014, the revival of the minimalist piano-based songs like this year's "All of Me", and the building of the neo-soul movement that I've already covered, and 2012's Gotye paving the way for rock acts finally getting an opening to have success once more like Hozier, Imagine Dragons, and OneRepublic), then there isn't much justification this year in any case.

Still, looking back at this essay, it all devolves into a "do I think one deserves it?". Really, it's just the numbers that will decide, though needless to say if they skew one way, then I feel like it matches up well with the context of both this year and the progression of music over these past few years.

Amazing essay btw. (Yes, I read the entirity of it, quite nice)

[macabyan]

Nov 10, 2014 22:08:33 GMT -5 rimetm said:

I feel like "Happy" represents a fair number of things for this year in general. 
...
(2011's Adele helping fuel both the female dominance of 2014, the revival of the minimalist piano-based songs like this year's "All of Me", and the building of the neo-soul movement that I've already covered, and 2012's Gotye paving the way for rock acts finally getting an opening to have success once more like Hozier, Imagine Dragons, and OneRepublic), then there isn't much justification this year in any case.

Still, looking back at this essay, it all devolves into a "do I think one deserves it?". Really, it's just the numbers that will decide, though needless to say if they skew one way, then I feel like it matches up well with the context of both this year and the progression of music over these past few years.

You could've simply said that "Happy" was more musically inclined and memorable than "Dark Horse" haha.

But one thing I'd point out as somehow wrong was Gotye's pavement for the rock scene. Gotye is not rock but indie. Indie had its first taste of mainstream back in 2011 with "Pumped Up Kicks" by Foster the People reaching #3. Then "We Are Young" by Fun followed along with "Somebody That I Used to Know".

[mamooshka]

LOL.  Agree that the thoughts about "Happy" and "Horse" were expressed nicely.  And that Pharrell deserves the year-end crown for the reasons already given.

That said, the masses obviously connected with "Horse", which has enjoyed the second-longest residency to date in the 2014 chart year.  "Unconditionally" and "Birthday" both nudged the Top 10.  All in all, "Prism", with 5 Top 25 hits (including 2 chart toppers) is an accomplishment in of itself.  Katy is still culturally relevant and is not going away anytime soon.  So a Top 3 finish for "Horse" makes sense.

Legend is a critically-acclaimed 9-time Grammy winner and arguably the most talented soul musician/writer/crooner of his generation.  While every one of his (solo) studio CDs hit the Top 5, success on the Singles front eluded him ... until this year.  "All" is a career-defining ballad.  Much of its mainstream audience 'discovered' its artist with this track, which further clenched its longevity.  Fortunately, John will continue to create R&B masterpieces for some time to come, but his future singles are unlikely to match the chart success of "All". 

Who will be the runner up in the year end tally?  We'll know in a few days....

[Deleted]

Amazing how we might have 4 songs this year that were on the chart at least 46/52 weeks of 2014 charts (by the year-end chart calendar)! Last year we only had one and that was Radioactive...the year before that we only had one (STIUTK) and in 2011 the only one was RITD. Amazing how longevity of songs is increasing!