Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Libra]

Hey guys, if you want to praise your favs/bash the ones you hate from this year, consider using this thread to let off that steam in: :)

pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/162321/year-2016-personal-worst-lists

[scrohr424]

Oct 19, 2016 12:51:13 GMT -5 inverse said:

Umm, I don't wanna be a mini mod or anything, but is it ok if we stop making top 10 lists and get back to the focus of the thread, which is Year End Hot 100 Predictions? Again, really don't want to sound like the forum police but pages 124-127 have been pretty much all opinions on songs, mostly complaining about Meghan Trainor and rap songs. Not saying that you can't comment on what songs you want to land high, it's fine to be like "Really hope Peter Pan makes it, love that song" or "Disappointed that Work will finish top 5" and things like that, but just making posts about top 10 worst song lists was never what this thread was for and I just don't wanna detract from what this thread was supposed to be. Thanks, sorry for the rant 

P. S. Same Old Love is coming for that 42.

Heh yeah, I know, I kinda thought that when I started another UF/PRA debate back in late August or so. So yeah, go ahead and call me a hypocrite

And I am so sorry for asking, but why doesn't gravey want Same Old Love to finish at 42 again?

[truemusicreviews]

I doubt it has a chance, but "You Don't Own Me" may have a little momentum left due to its inclusion in a Toyota commercial.

[johnny16]

Oct 18, 2016 22:14:30 GMT -5 georgetherunner314 said:

WEEK 48 (October 29, 2016)
4 weeks to go!

As we near the closing of this year, I will now only be including the top 100, the 10 Bubbling Under, and any other contenders for the year-end chart (which there only seem to be two). On another note, I plan to release a top 100 video of my predictions on my YouTube channel when all is said and done so stay tuned for that! (Hopefully Jillboard doesn't beat me to it lol)

Notes/Analysis:

• One Dance needs to maintain its 14.6k points from this week to stand a chance at #2, so top 2 ain't happening for it, at least on my predictions.
• Panda will easily overtake Stressed Out to reach the top 5 and it remains unknown whether or not Don't Let Me Down will pass Hello.
• CSTF! should pass 7 Years as should Cheap Thrills barring a fast radio drop.
• Closer is still scoring over 50k points a week so it has still got a chance at top 10!
• Ride and Heathens will battle for a top 20 finish although Ride looks to remain above the latter single.
• Low Life finally drops out and is surely going to be the highest song to have not made the top 10. But, will it be The Weeknd's highest song of the year?!

Now for the cutoff discussion:

• Of the bubbling under, Starboy and Side To Side will easily make it as Tiimmy Turner should as well following the Kanye West remix release.
• No Limit is too close to not reach the cutoff despite its falling on radio. It can still chart 4 weeks in the bottom 50, which should guarantee it a spot
• IGTK and FSMH will drop out very soon, at least in my eyes. Peter Pan has a discount going for it although it's not doing much so I don't think it will earn a spot either.
• THat Part and Different For Girls are also on their last legs and You Don't Own Me will probably be gone next week.
• That leaves only Starving with an opportunity to make the list (it's currently at 14.5k points/wk) and maybe 24K Magic although I'd bet no on it, unfortunately. So, not much has changed since last week.

Legend:
Blue = Actively charting in the hot 100's top 10.
Bold = Actively charting on the hot 100.
* = Reached its highest peak in a separate time period.

What's your youtube channel?

[georgetherunner314]

Oct 19, 2016 22:44:45 GMT -5 johnny16 said:

It's called George Music Charts and here's the link. It isn't much at the moment, just videos of the top 50 on my personal chart.

[aerodynamite]

24K Magic is looking more and more like this year's Sorry than this year's Hello.

[Deleted]

Oct 20, 2016 16:33:23 GMT -5 aerodynamite said:

24K Magic is looking more and more like this year's Sorry than this year's Hello.

I do hope it at least barely makes the year-end chart

[scrohr424]

Well I'm not gonna give up hope just yet. Although as I may have said, I won't be super upset if it doesn't, because it'll probably be pretty high for next year's lineup (unless it collapses, which I can't imagine it would). But if it doesn't, the thing that I'll be most disappointed about a handful of its points being wasted here and shutting it out of a higher spot on that one.

But if it doesn't make this one nor hit #1, then it'll look more comparable to Take Me To Church if it doesn't stick around the Hot 100 for much longer afterwards (that one barely missed 2014's, if memory serves).

[johnny16]

Oct 20, 2016 17:21:04 GMT -5 scrohr424 said:

Well I'm not gonna give up hope just yet. Although as I may have said, I won't be super upset if it doesn't, because it'll probably be pretty high for next year's lineup (unless it collapses, which I can't imagine it would). But if it doesn't, the thing that I'll be most disappointed about a handful of its points being wasted here and shutting it out of a higher spot on that one.

But if it doesn't make this one nor hit #1, then it'll look more comparable to Take Me To Church if it doesn't stick around the Hot 100 for much longer afterwards (that one barely missed 2014's, if memory serves).

this could be very well like locked out of heaven 2012/13

[scrohr424]

That is very true now that you mention it.

But I may have said before, but what worries me is the thought of it peaking too early, because should the other components build we'll have to find out how long it can keep up the momentum. That was what happened with CSTF, after three weeks at #1 in radio it then peaked and kept the top there for two more weeks but started to drop afterwards. That's the problem with debuting super high, you use up a lot of momentum early on which makes it easier for radio to quickly drop if it gains too fast.

[johnny16]

welp i think closer is not going anywhere , the video is coming monday and is still gaining, gonna hold that number 1 spot for quite some time

[Deleted]

I really hope that Starboy gets a chance at number 1.

[kcdawg13]

Oct 21, 2016 15:55:48 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

I really hope that Starboy gets a chance at number 1.

I don't think it will. Closer has #1 on lock for the next few weeks, while 24k Magic is gaining A LOT. The latter will most likely take over the former somewhere in December.

[inverse]

Hope 24K fades faster than Closer so that it peaks at 2

[kcdawg13]

Oct 21, 2016 17:20:19 GMT -5 inverse said:

Hope 24K fades faster than Closer so that it peaks at 2

I'm the exact opposite. I hope Starboy fades so 24k can hit #1.

As much as I like Starboy. It's really boring, and it doesn't belong at #1. That spot is for an upbeat song, something this year hasn't brought. 24k Magic is an opener for much better music next year. 

[Deleted]

Oct 21, 2016 17:31:37 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Oct 21, 2016 17:20:19 GMT -5 inverse said:

Hope 24K fades faster than Closer so that it peaks at 2

I'm the exact opposite. I hope Starboy fades so 24k can hit #1.

As much as I like Starboy. It's really boring, and it doesn't belong at #1. That spot is for an upbeat song, something this year hasn't brought. 24k Magic is an opener for much better music next year. 

not necessarily lmao. When I Was Your Man, All of Me, Someone Like You, Love Yourself, and See You Again all hit #1.

I want both Starboy and 24k Magic to hit #1

[inverse]

I just need Closer to stay at number 1 for a long time. Looks like it's gonna fade Starboy but 24K could be a problem. I like 24K and if it stayed at number 2 for 12 weeks fine with me 

[kcdawg13]

Oct 21, 2016 17:34:16 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Oct 21, 2016 17:31:37 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I'm the exact opposite. I hope Starboy fades so 24k can hit #1.

As much as I like Starboy. It's really boring, and it doesn't belong at #1. That spot is for an upbeat song, something this year hasn't brought. 24k Magic is an opener for much better music next year. 

not necessarily lmao. When I Was Your Man, All of Me, Someone Like You, Love Yourself, and See You Again all hit #1.

I want both Starboy and 24k Magic to hit #1

Of course non-upbeat songs have hit #1 in the past. But this year almost every #1 has been boring and safe. Most of the time, slow and dismal tracks are the minority. But not this year. Not at all.

Even the tracks that are suppose to be upbeat like Sorry, Work, and One Dance are all pretty safe. It gets to the point where you want to have some fun for a bit. 24k Magic captures fun in a bottle, and it deserves #1 more than Starboy. Even though I'd like both to hit #1, it's probably not gonna happen. 

[Deleted]

Oct 21, 2016 17:48:26 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Oct 21, 2016 17:34:16 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

not necessarily lmao. When I Was Your Man, All of Me, Someone Like You, Love Yourself, and See You Again all hit #1.

I want both Starboy and 24k Magic to hit #1

Of course non-upbeat songs have hit #1 in the past. But this year almost every #1 has been boring and safe. Most of the time, slow and dismal tracks are the minority. But not this year. Not at all.

Even the tracks that are suppose to be upbeat like Sorry, Work, and One Dance are all pretty safe. It gets to the point where you want to have some fun for a bit. 24k Magic captures fun in a bottle, and it deserves #1 more than Starboy. Even though I'd like both to hit #1, it's probably not gonna happen. 

what exactly do you mean by "safe"?

[Deleted]

I think Starboy could be like Sorry and The Way You Move. They spent 8 weeks at number 2 before finally reaching number 1.

[yuh yuh]

Oct 21, 2016 18:08:43 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

I think Starboy could be like Sorry and The Way You Move. They spent 8 weeks at number 2 before finally reaching number 1.

I hope so

[kcdawg13]

Oct 21, 2016 17:50:35 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Oct 21, 2016 17:48:26 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Of course non-upbeat songs have hit #1 in the past. But this year almost every #1 has been boring and safe. Most of the time, slow and dismal tracks are the minority. But not this year. Not at all.

Even the tracks that are suppose to be upbeat like Sorry, Work, and One Dance are all pretty safe. It gets to the point where you want to have some fun for a bit. 24k Magic captures fun in a bottle, and it deserves #1 more than Starboy. Even though I'd like both to hit #1, it's probably not gonna happen. 

what exactly do you mean by "safe"?

"Safe" is another way of saying "boring," "slow," "dismal," etc... 

I just didn't want to use the same phrasing over and over again. 

[georgetherunner314]

In other news, "Peter Pan" will be safe this week as Kworb's sale estimate for the song is now 12k, which should outrank its slight decreases on radio and streams.

This means Peter Pan, No Limit, and Starboy are all due to enter the top 100 this coming week!

[kcdawg13]

I hope my comments earlier didn't make me seem like a butthole (can we swear on this forum?). I was just stating my opinion. Sorry If I grinded anyone's gears!

[Leo ✔]

Oct 21, 2016 21:48:35 GMT -5 georgetherunner314 said:

In other news, "Peter Pan" will be safe this week as Kworb's sale estimate for the song is now 12k, which should outrank its slight decreases on radio and streams.

This means Peter Pan, No Limit, and Starboy are all due to enter the top 100 this coming week!

Yes! YES! YEEEES!!! *cries*

[Deleted]

Oct 21, 2016 22:02:04 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I hope my comments earlier didn't make me seem like a butthole (can we swear on this forum?). I was just stating my opinion. Sorry If I grinded anyone's gears!

nope. I was just confused because I never heard the word "safe" being used to mean "boring" lol

[Sambalada]

yay Peter Pan! Come on you should stream it non-stop chicken077

[inverse]

Peter Pan needs 2 weeks (or to go back to the top 40) in order to make it. If it beats Perfect then it's fine. If it finished between Wicked and Perfect then it's probably also fine and will finish at 99 or 100. If it finishes 1 spot below Wicked, then its fate will depend on 24K and Tiimmy Turner, if both make it then it's gone

also you can like your own posts?

[rainie]

It's probably dead at this point but what are the chances of This Girl making the year end and what would have to happen?

[chicken077]

Oct 22, 2016 1:58:34 GMT -5 Sambalada said:

yay Peter Pan! Come on you should stream it non-stop chicken077

Haha lol, I've actually been streaming that song quite a lot recently haha :)

There's also the descreptancy to worry about that may work in Peter Pan's favor or the other way around, I'm thinking given Broccoli level accuracy in 2015 and Daniel Collins level accuracy in 2014, Peter Pan would need to score around Humble And Kind level (above Perfect) to lock a position on the YE chart. That's around 13-14k more points. A bit of a stretch, but doable only if it hangs around for two more weeks, and does so without losing too much radio and streaming. Really hope it does... For some reason I'm thinking Peter Pan will be exactly #100 on the official YE. I don't know why lol, it's just a random gut feeling I have... as long as BB doesn't make some kind of exception and kick the song out this week.

And as for #1, I enjoy Closer, Starboy, and 24k a lot, but Closer is definately overstaying it's welcome (though the song just grew on me lol). I see it as a solid 6-8 week #1, but I feel like I'll get annoyed at it if it goes further. As of the other two, I'd much prefer Starboy, but 24k is awesome as well. I really want both to hit #1, even if Starboy just slips 1 week at the summit. But either song hitting #1 as we approach 2017 seems like a great start to the new chart year.