Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[kcdawg13]

Oct 22, 2016 13:46:39 GMT -5 chicken077 said:

Oct 22, 2016 1:58:34 GMT -5 Sambalada said:

yay Peter Pan! Come on you should stream it non-stop chicken077

Haha lol, I've actually been streaming that song quite a lot recently haha :)

There's also the descreptancy to worry about that may work in Peter Pan's favor or the other way around, I'm thinking given Broccoli level accuracy in 2015 and Daniel Collins level accuracy in 2014, Peter Pan would need to score around Humble And Kind level (above Perfect) to lock a position on the YE chart. That's around 13-14k more points. A bit of a stretch, but doable only if it hangs around for two more weeks, and does so without losing too much radio and streaming. Really hope it does... For some reason I'm thinking Peter Pan will be exactly #100 on the official YE. I don't know why lol, it's just a random gut feeling I have... as long as BB doesn't make some kind of exception and kick the song out this week.

And as for #1, I enjoy Closer, Starboy, and 24k a lot, but Closer is definately overstaying it's welcome (though the song just grew on me lol). I see it as a solid 6-8 week #1, but I feel like I'll get annoyed at it if it goes further. As of the other two, I'd much prefer Starboy, but 24k is awesome as well. I really want both to hit #1, even if Starboy just slips 1 week at the summit. But either song hitting #1 as we approach 2017 seems like a great start to the new chart year.

Speaking of The Weeknd. You know what's a really damn good song? False Alarm. I hope that song can pick up steam soon and end up getting a high place on 2017's YE chart along with Starboy.

[chicken077]

Oct 22, 2016 15:39:36 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Oct 22, 2016 13:46:39 GMT -5 chicken077 said:

Haha lol, I've actually been streaming that song quite a lot recently haha :)

There's also the descreptancy to worry about that may work in Peter Pan's favor or the other way around, I'm thinking given Broccoli level accuracy in 2015 and Daniel Collins level accuracy in 2014, Peter Pan would need to score around Humble And Kind level (above Perfect) to lock a position on the YE chart. That's around 13-14k more points. A bit of a stretch, but doable only if it hangs around for two more weeks, and does so without losing too much radio and streaming. Really hope it does... For some reason I'm thinking Peter Pan will be exactly #100 on the official YE. I don't know why lol, it's just a random gut feeling I have... as long as BB doesn't make some kind of exception and kick the song out this week.

And as for #1, I enjoy Closer, Starboy, and 24k a lot, but Closer is definately overstaying it's welcome (though the song just grew on me lol). I see it as a solid 6-8 week #1, but I feel like I'll get annoyed at it if it goes further. As of the other two, I'd much prefer Starboy, but 24k is awesome as well. I really want both to hit #1, even if Starboy just slips 1 week at the summit. But either song hitting #1 as we approach 2017 seems like a great start to the new chart year.

Speaking of The Weeknd. You know what's a really damn good song? False Alarm. I hope that song can pick up steam soon and end up getting a high place on 2017's YE chart along with Starboy.

False Alarm is a MASTERPIECE and shows how far The Weeknd can take his style of music and still make it AMAZING. (the video is really cool as well haha) I really hope he's gonna save 2017 for us with his two songs (doubt it, but maybe he can go as far as to be the JB of the year with Starboy and False Alarm analogous to Sorry and Love Yourself?). The Weeknd really impressed me with his new songs and I'm really looking forward to his new album :)

[velaxti]

Oct 21, 2016 17:48:26 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Oct 21, 2016 17:34:16 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

not necessarily lmao. When I Was Your Man, All of Me, Someone Like You, Love Yourself, and See You Again all hit #1.

I want both Starboy and 24k Magic to hit #1

Of course non-upbeat songs have hit #1 in the past. But this year almost every #1 has been boring and safe. Most of the time, slow and dismal tracks are the minority. But not this year. Not at all.

Even the tracks that are suppose to be upbeat like Sorry, Work, and One Dance are all pretty safe. It gets to the point where you want to have some fun for a bit. 24k Magic captures fun in a bottle, and it deserves #1 more than Starboy. Even though I'd like both to hit #1, it's probably not gonna happen. 

I honestly can't understand how Sorry, Work, Panda, One Dance, Can't Stop The Feeling and Cheap Thrills are any less up-beat than 24k Magic. 24k Magic is hardly a drum & bass song!

Are you trying to say that the synths are more prominent (i.e. sound louder) in 24k Magic?

[Harx]

Oct 23, 2016 8:59:56 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Oct 21, 2016 17:48:26 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Of course non-upbeat songs have hit #1 in the past. But this year almost every #1 has been boring and safe. Most of the time, slow and dismal tracks are the minority. But not this year. Not at all.

Even the tracks that are suppose to be upbeat like Sorry, Work, and One Dance are all pretty safe. It gets to the point where you want to have some fun for a bit. 24k Magic captures fun in a bottle, and it deserves #1 more than Starboy. Even though I'd like both to hit #1, it's probably not gonna happen. 

I honestly can't understand how Sorry, Work, Panda, One Dance, Can't Stop The Feeling and Cheap Thrills are any less up-beat than 24k Magic. 24k Magic is hardly a drum & bass song!

Are you trying to say that the synths are more prominent (i.e. sound louder) in 24k Magic?

I think upbeat is the wrong word here, I would rather say that most of these songs (except for Can't Stop The Feeling) don't really have that much energy or a punch, that's why I would call them safe.

[kcdawg13]

Oct 23, 2016 12:53:58 GMT -5 Harx said:

Oct 23, 2016 8:59:56 GMT -5 velaxti said:

I honestly can't understand how Sorry, Work, Panda, One Dance, Can't Stop The Feeling and Cheap Thrills are any less up-beat than 24k Magic. 24k Magic is hardly a drum & bass song!

Are you trying to say that the synths are more prominent (i.e. sound louder) in 24k Magic?

I think upbeat is the wrong word here, I would rather say that most of these songs (except for Can't Stop The Feeling) don't really have that much energy or a punch, that's why I would call them safe.

Thank you. That's what I was trying to say but it came out wrong. 

[scrohr424]

Guys… I hate being that guy, but remember what inverse said, let's please try to stay on topic of the OP. Even George has said this tendency is getting annoying for him. Can we take the personal opinions elsewhere? >_>

[Dylan :)]

I actually agree. Recently a lot of people have been talking about their opinions on songs, what they think will be #1 on the Hot 100, 100 movements and so on. Of course this discussion isn't a bad thing at all, just not relevant in this thread. Its sole purpose is to predict the Hot 100 year end list and discus these predictions :)

[Deleted]

I think that OUI will be exactly number 50 this year. What do you guys think?

[aerodynamite]

It's one thing to share opinions of songs expected to be on YE, but discussing thoughts on #1's is even less relevant. (Although, some of the favorites/least favorites rankings extended beyond YE songs, which is definitely not related to the topic.)

[scrohr424]

Oct 23, 2016 17:28:42 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

I think that OUI will be exactly number 50 this year. What do you guys think?

Well, let's see... If Into You duplicates its point totals from this week next week (which it probably won't, but it shouldn't be far behind), it'll definitely end above Exchange and Hands To Myself, and most likely 679 unless it leaves the week after. That one also has I Hate U, I Love U, We Don't Talk Anymore and Broccoli hot on its trail. And if Let Me Love You gains well it could surely enter the Top 50. If all five of those songs were to pass Oui, it would likely end at #52.

But what's most important is that **** *** **** ends at #42

[Deleted]

I dont think that Same Old Love will be 42, itll be 39 Im sure.

[aerodynamite]

If TYB, IHUILU and Broccoli pass SOL, that puts it at 40. Nothing else is on pace to pass it, except Controlla which might fall off before then.

[Deleted]

WDYM is on track to be 33, right?

[aerodynamite]

If JLF hangs on another week.

[inverse]

Let Me Love You might finish above Same Old Love.

I really need Controlla to hang on, wish We Don't Talk Anymore hadn't fallen from 11 to 21 like it did.

[scrohr424]

So, 24K Magic falls to #6 despite passing Broccoli in sales and radio. Thought it would've gained more from SNL.

Looks like its shot at this YE may be over. As I said, let's hope it doesn't waste too many points in this year so it can end higher in 2017.

[kcdawg13]

Closer's video just dropped. The song won't be budging until December. What does that mean for the song's YE placement? I'm guessing #9 like "Moves Like Jagger" in 2011.

[inverse]

Closer hit 10 weeks WOO! I wonder what's going to take over the number 1 spot. It doesn't look like Starboy will get there on its own merits, but The Weeknd's album is dropping in November so that's gonna provide a boost. Also, 24K Magic might still make it if it can just go up to 35000 a week by the last two weeks of the year.

[Dylan :)]

What is the last song to get 10 or more weeks at #1 without finishing in the year end top 10?

[Deleted]

Oct 24, 2016 17:55:26 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

What is the last song to get 10 or more weeks at #1 without finishing in the year end top 10?

Eminem - Lose Yourself

[scrohr424]

Oct 24, 2016 17:55:26 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

What is the last song to get 10 or more weeks at #1 without finishing in the year end top 10?

One More Night by Maroon 5 came close in 2012 - it had nine weeks at #1 but somehow only ended at #18 (21 weeks in total). Yet All About That Bass had eight weeks at #1 with 19 weeks in total and ended up at #8 for 2014. How exactly did the former end a little lower? I do know that at that time, the streaming songs chart hadn't existed yet...

[chicken077]

Oct 24, 2016 21:21:54 GMT -5 scrohr424 said:

Oct 24, 2016 17:55:26 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

What is the last song to get 10 or more weeks at #1 without finishing in the year end top 10?

One More Night by Maroon 5 came close in 2012 - it had nine weeks at #1 but somehow only ended at #18 (21 weeks in total). Yet All About That Bass had eight weeks at #1 with 19 weeks in total and ended up at #8 for 2014. How exactly did the former end a little lower? I do know that at that time, the streaming songs chart hadn't existed yet...

If I recall correctly, AATB had a significant run at #2 as well. Its run in the top 2 started late in the summer when Rude was #1, knocking Stay With Me from #2 and Fancy from the top 3. It lasted in that region through the fall and even outlasted SIO, finally being knocked out from #2 when TMTC reached its #2 peak when Blank Space was #1, which actually happened in December 2014 - the 2015 chart year. Also, AATB's weeks were absolutely huge. Even the #2 song it kept down for 8 weeks, SIO, dwarfs the average #1 song. But I'm not too familiar with pre-2014 chart runs, so maybe OMN scored absolutely massive points as well. Feel free to correct me.

[Deleted]

Lose Yourself was #1 for 12 weeks and wasn't even top 25 on a year-end chart

EDIT: nvm, someone already beat me to it

[scrohr424]

Yeah, the thing with Lose Yourself is that it was caught between years. That kept it from scoring higher on the Year-End charts, but not helping AT ALL is how hard it collapsed after it lost #1 - it fell to #9 the week it was dethroned, if memory serves. And it only lasted 23 weeks on the chart in total. Feels like a run that would've happened in the earlier decades.

chicken077: You know, I wonder what the charts would've looked like in late 2014 if Meghan Meghans had never came around. Shake It Off would've spent 12 weeks at #1, which...I don't know if that would've made much of a difference on the Year-End chart provided the points were the same, aside from being possibly Top 10 on Decade-End and making Greatest of All Time. Still though...

[chicken077]

Oct 24, 2016 22:03:38 GMT -5 scrohr424 said:

chicken077 : You know, I wonder what the charts would've looked like in late 2014 if Meghan Meghans had never came around. Shake It Off would've spent 12 weeks at #1, which...I don't know if that would've made much of a difference on the Year-End chart provided the points were the same, aside from being possibly Top 10 on Decade-End and making Greatest of All Time. Still though...

Yeah... AATB really screwed up SIO's chart run. I don't think the YE chart would be affected too much since its 100% points except the fact that Timber would've been top 10, although if AATB didn't exist certain songs might be logging in at higher point values since people that stream AATB/radio stations that play AATB would be instead streaming or playing something else. But overall, I don't think too much effect.

I agree that the real difference will come on Decade End and GOAT, which are completely based on inverse points. Looking back at AATB and SIO's chart run, the only reason why AATB is so much higher on these charts is because it spent 8 weeks while SIO spent 4 (except for the fact that AATB looked to outlast SIO, but I think in the end AATB only spent one more week in the top 10 than SIO and SIO spent more weeks on the Hot 100. And given that more weeks at #1 gives a huge advantage to songs on Decade End/GOAT, 12 weeks for SIO would definitely propel it to a much higher position on both charts... The only reason why AATB is so much higher than SIO on decade end based on George's predictions is because AATB spend so many more weeks in top 2 than SIO... but imo SIO definitely had the better run looking at it in a broader scale. Especially since I'm a Swiftie, it's kinda saddening to see that SIO won't go down in history with as much glory as AATB will...

And of course, if AATB didn't exist, there would be a handful of #2 peaking songs of that era that would be blocked by SIO: Anaconda (which would've peaked at #2 anyway), Black Widow, Bang Bang, Habits, and Animals. And that's kinda like our current chart... Closer has prevented 3 songs so far from hitting #1: Cold Water, Heathens, and Starboy, and if Closer really hangs on really well, 24k and all those Drake songs may be blocked as well...

OK calling myself out for getting off topic now. Back to the YE chart.

[Deleted]

No way those Drake songs are going number 1.

[bigbertha]

Oct 24, 2016 22:52:31 GMT -5 chicken077 said:

Oct 24, 2016 22:03:38 GMT -5 scrohr424 said:

chicken077 : You know, I wonder what the charts would've looked like in late 2014 if Meghan Meghans had never came around. Shake It Off would've spent 12 weeks at #1, which...I don't know if that would've made much of a difference on the Year-End chart provided the points were the same, aside from being possibly Top 10 on Decade-End and making Greatest of All Time. Still though...

Yeah... AATB really screwed up SIO's chart run. I don't think the YE chart would be affected too much since its 100% points except the fact that Timber would've been top 10, although if AATB didn't exist certain songs might be logging in at higher point values since people that stream AATB/radio stations that play AATB would be instead streaming or playing something else. But overall, I don't think too much effect.

I agree that the real difference will come on Decade End and GOAT, which are completely based on inverse points. Looking back at AATB and SIO's chart run, the only reason why AATB is so much higher on these charts is because it spent 8 weeks while SIO spent 4 (except for the fact that AATB looked to outlast SIO, but I think in the end AATB only spent one more week in the top 10 than SIO and SIO spent more weeks on the Hot 100. And given that more weeks at #1 gives a huge advantage to songs on Decade End/GOAT, 12 weeks for SIO would definitely propel it to a much higher position on both charts... The only reason why AATB is so much higher than SIO on decade end based on George's predictions is because AATB spend so many more weeks in top 2 than SIO... but imo SIO definitely had the better run looking at it in a broader scale. Especially since I'm a Swiftie, it's kinda saddening to see that SIO won't go down in history with as much glory as AATB will...

And of course, if AATB didn't exist, there would be a handful of #2 peaking songs of that era that would be blocked by SIO: Anaconda (which would've peaked at #2 anyway), Black Widow, Bang Bang, Habits, and Animals. And that's kinda like our current chart... Closer has prevented 3 songs so far from hitting #1: Cold Water, Heathens, and Starboy, and if Closer really hangs on really well, 24k and all those Drake songs may be blocked as well...

OK calling myself out for getting off topic now. Back to the YE chart.

Yeah, Shake If Off was just as big as AATB, and deserves a high ranking with it.

OT-I'm I the only the one who feels bad for Country artists this year. It seems like only a handful of songs will make it from the genre. Streaming has really hurt them this year on the Hot 100.

[Leo ✔]

Totally! Peter Pan, Different For Girls, Humble and Kind, Settin' The World On Fire deserved better peaks

[chicken077]

bigbertha  Now that Peter Pan fell of the Hot 100 this week (see the H100 thread), it's chances are basically over for YE... That leaves just a few country songs set to make the final YE list... I can only think of HOLY, Die A Happy Man, Humble And Kind, and a slim chance of Somewhere On A Beach (of course discrepancy in points could allow Break Up In A Small Town, You Should Be Here, and Peter Pan make, but I highly doubt it). Last year I recall seeing a bit more country on the YE. But the amount of country on YE 2013 and 2014 is so much that even 2015 would be put to shame... So nope, you're not the only one who feel bad for country... If Peter Pan can't make it (it's one of the biggest country songs this year that did not cross over), then there's a serious problem. Streaming and that 15 week country radio line is killing the genre on the charts...

[Abbaschand]

PPAP out.