inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,095
|
Post by inverse on Oct 25, 2016 10:20:53 GMT -5
So with Father Stretch My Hands out that leaves Side To Side, Starboy, Starving, No Limit, Tiimmy Turner, and possibly 24K Magic to make it in, thereby ensuring Wicked will have a spot on the predictions finish.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2016 10:23:51 GMT -5
I still honestly feel like Summer Sixteen was calculated wrong and could sneak in on the charts but that could be just me. Drake had 2 songs that barely snuck in last 2 years, 0 to 100 and Back To Back, and I feel like Summer Sixteen could end up doing that too, Idk...
|
|
inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,095
|
Post by inverse on Oct 25, 2016 11:10:51 GMT -5
I still honestly feel like Summer Sixteen was calculated wrong and could sneak in on the charts but that could be just me. Drake had 2 songs that barely snuck in last 2 years, 0 to 100 and Back To Back, and I feel like Summer Sixteen could end up doing that too, Idk... Yeah, I kinda feel that way about You Should Be Here. I don't normally like to mention chart position but it just doesn't make much sense that You Should Be Here had 8 weeks in the top 50, 4 in the top 35 and Peter Pan had 5 weeks in the top 50, 1 in the top 35 (at 35) and yet they finished like 200 points away from each other. |
|
|
|
Post by georgetherunner314 on Oct 25, 2016 21:40:13 GMT -5
WEEK 49 (November 5, 2016)3 weeks to go! Late update because I've been quite busy today as I was over the weekend (why my personal chart wasn't released then). Not much new this week that hasn't been mentioned thus far, so I'll make the notes brief. Notes/Analysis: - This week hosts two new entries: Starboy and No Limit. Both should make it easily as will Side To Side which is set to enter next week.
- Starving continues to move on pace to reach year-end as does Tiimmy Turner. 24K Magic's appearance is still questionable (needs at least 32k/wk probably).
- Don't Let Me Down received just below 17k points this week, so it's still looking good to pass Hello.
- Also, I must note I was going to wait until next year to change my formula, but I've started with it this week: Sales/9.5 + Airplay/10500 + Streams/1200. I've found it to be slightly more accurate across the exact figures Billboard has given in their articles. Now, obviously this will lead to a difference between formulas: This one's denominators are larger meaning it gives a smaller point value for each song. To fix this, I did some math and found an average difference of 1.029. So, I'm using the new formula *1.029 so that values are comparable. Make no mistake, Billboard did not change their formula; I just chose to make it slightly more accurate. Hopefully that explanation makes sense!
Legend:
Blue = Actively charting in the hot 100's top 10.
Bold = Actively charting on the hot 100.
* = Reached its highest peak in a separate time period.
   
|
|
inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,095
|
Post by inverse on Oct 25, 2016 21:48:24 GMT -5
- Ahhh so close between Work From Home, I Took A Pill In Ibiza, and My House!
- And wow Cheap Thrills vs. Can't Stop The Feeling is a nail biter. Why did Can't Stop The Feeling go back up to 19?
- Lastly, and most importantly, Controlla needs to hold on for 2 more weeks. I really hope that Drake doesn't get it kicked off of the Hot 100 by releasing his More Life project, otherwise it'll be really bad news for the Same Old Love at 42 campaign.
Thank you so much for doing these, it's so cool seeing how intense it gets at the end of the year!
|
|
scrohr424
Gold Member
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 757 
|
Post by scrohr424 on Oct 25, 2016 21:53:12 GMT -5
Oooooh... Seeing as 24K Magic "gained in performance" thanks to the airplay boosts, I thought it would've gained more. Turns out not. Yeah, I'm not banking on it right about now. As I said, my only hope is that if it doesn't make it, it won't waste too many points here in 2016 (as in, not barely miss it, much like Blank Space in 2014). But if the amount of points here is anything to go by (25k compared to last week's 28k), that looks like it'll be the case. It could vault massively, but its sales and streaming would need to rebound fast.
I was about to rule out Tiimmy Turner though, as its sales are not very good at all even with the remix (which is like two and a half minutes, if memory serves)...but whoa, 12k gain this week? Wow.
It's kinda sad though, that quite a few songs here have peaked so low. A handful of these songs didn't feel like proper hits.
|
|
inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,095
|
Post by inverse on Oct 25, 2016 21:59:44 GMT -5
Actually is it ok if I ask a question? How many points did You Should Be Here have when it was at 31, and how many did Peter Pan have when it was at 35? Knowing only the chart positions makes the closeness of those 2 songs seem kinda confusing, so I was wondering how many points each of those actually entailed.
Thanks!
|
|
|
|
Post by chicken077 on Oct 25, 2016 23:13:40 GMT -5
Since I pretty much accepted that I'm gonna do not so well on my physics test tomorrow and I'm just gonna finesse it and hope for a good curve, time to make some observations! Been a while since I did one of these! -Welp there goes One Dance's chances at #2. It needs just under 19k points a week to pass Sorry, and given that DLMD didn't even score that many points this week, looks like JB's running away with top 2 of the year. -Still bothered that Panda looks to be taking #5 away from Stressed Out. It needs 2 weeks to do it, so unless it makes a random drop next week or the week after (which I highly doubt), there goes 21p's chances at top 5... Hoping for the best that discrepancy in points will propel it to top 5... -Ayeee at DLMD set to pass Hello! And since Chainsmokers EP is coming soon, hopefully that can give DLMD more points in the weeks to come! Also excited to see if DLMD can make 2017 YE. -wow, Cheap Thrills vs CSTF for that #10 position... I'd prefer CSTF, but I'd be fine if Cheap Thrills snags it tbh. But now that Closer is doing so well and the EP coming out, Closer might actually have a chance. Who would've thought of that when Closer debuted? -With WFH falling out this week, that MH/ITAPII/WFH battle is so cringy. And lol, their stats are also literally so close. I enjoy all 3 songs, but hopefully ITAPII comes out on top of the other two. -Looks like Heathens is getting blocked from top 20... Given that Ride will pass MM&I which looks likely, Heathens needs to either pass Ride or pass MM&I to make top 20. Passing Ride requires scoring an average of 30k more than Ride for the remaining weeks, and passing MM&I would require scoring 40k points each week. And that's not happening. -WDYM is looking to clock in at #32 with Too Good and TYB passing it. Broccoli would need to score an average of 27k each week to pass it. So maybe WDYM can get its #33 position, equaling its spot from last year? -STARBOY! Too bad it's getting its points split between the two chart years...cause it's such an awesome song... -RIP Peter Pan... I was looking for it to make another week or two on BB from the discount so it can score enough points to possibly make the YE, but looks like it's not happening... -As for the cutoff song, as George said, STS, Starving, and Tiimmy Turner are looking to make it. No Problem is another cringe, needing to score an average of 12k/week to pass Somewhere On A Beach. It's currently not even top 40 now, so unless it gets some random boost, don't think it could do it. -Given that 24K doesn't make it, that's three more songs making it, pushing out SYA, Stand By You, and Confident (all really sad RIPs...), making Somewhere On A Beach the cutoff. 24K needs to average at 33k to make it, so it needs to score at around Heathens level on average for the next 3 weeks, which means repassing Broccoli, passing LMLY, and most likely even Heathens for a #3 position. Possible, but I wouldn't bet on it. Shooting for Somewhere On A Beach as the cutoff song, but it could very much be Wicked if 24K makes (ugh... Peter Pan deserves that position much more than Wicked :( ... Expect me complaining about how Peter Pan missed YE by just a tiny bit until probably 2017 lmao) Thanks George for posting this despite being so busy! Really appreciate it man! :) Now, if I fail my physics test tomo I'm gonna blame it on Pulse for tempting me to post this.  No jk lol, srsly tho, I gotta go study. |
|
|
|
Post by georgetherunner314 on Oct 25, 2016 23:17:51 GMT -5
Actually is it ok if I ask a question? How many points did You Should Be Here have when it was at 31, and how many did Peter Pan have when it was at 35? Knowing only the chart positions makes the closeness of those 2 songs seem kinda confusing, so I was wondering how many points each of those actually entailed. Thanks! Peter Pan had 10,640 points while You Should Be Here received only 9,850 points at their respective peaks. That was Peter Pan's highest point value. You Should Be Here's highest was 10,090 points (the week after it reached #31). |
|
Leo ✔
Diamond Member
Julia Michaels Stan
Happy happy happy ♪
Joined: June 2016
Posts: 75,497
My Charts
Pronouns: He/him/his
|
Post by Leo ✔ on Oct 25, 2016 23:20:11 GMT -5
Wicked will be on YE Chart and Peter Pan no??????? >:(
I'm mad rn
|
|
|
|
Post by chicken077 on Oct 25, 2016 23:29:52 GMT -5
Wicked will be on YE Chart and Peter Pan no??????? >:( I'm mad rn Sadly yea... Unless there's some wild difference in points with the official chart for Peter Pan. And what really bothers me is Peter Pan is probably the "poppiest" song Kelsea released (although LMLYMI and Dibs were poppy, but admit it, Peter Pan is basically pop lol), and that's probably one reason Peter Pan wasn't even 1st single and but it even got the chance to at least have a shot at YE (while her other two songs didn't). So when Kelsea releases her 2nd album, unless she completely switches to pop like Taylor did, have a song cross over (if Peter Pan didn't, I don't know what will), and/or be like Taylor's country years and release a song at least as poppy as Peter Pan as a first single, I don't think Kelsea's ever gonna get a chance at YE at least in the near future... unless BB switches its formula at the end of the year to benefit country songs a bit more. |
|
aerodynamite
4x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2016
Posts: 4,040
|
Post by aerodynamite on Oct 26, 2016 0:10:07 GMT -5
Seeing This Girl on Bubbling Under reminds me how close and yet how far it was. :(
|
|
|
|
Post by Parerastarr10 on Oct 26, 2016 2:54:18 GMT -5
Rooting for Cheap Thrills in the battle for #10.
|
|
rickroller
Platinum Member
Joined: August 2016
Posts: 1,106
|
Post by rickroller on Oct 26, 2016 9:21:50 GMT -5
Seeing This Girl on Bubbling Under reminds me how close and yet how far it was. :( This EDM masterpiece and worldwide hit was blocked by USA. |
|
|
|
Post by kcdawg13 on Oct 26, 2016 11:23:37 GMT -5
Seeing This Girl on Bubbling Under reminds me how close and yet how far it was. :( This EDM masterpiece and worldwide hit was blocked by USA. It's weird. We get these singles that have HUGE international buzz and manage to debut on the Hot 100, and even grab some big momentum that push them up the chart. Yet when the song hits the Top 40, the buzz seems to drop, and the song peaks at a mediocre number. This Girl deserved better, the song is one of the most unique EDM tracks I've heard in a while. The fact that it peaked at #26 makes me :(. It could of made YE 2016 and probably high up on YE 2017 if it'd continue to push up the chart. |
|
scrohr424
Gold Member
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 757
|
Post by scrohr424 on Oct 26, 2016 19:57:55 GMT -5
^ Such was also the case with songs like Sugar (by Robin Schulz) and Lush Life, both of which were big elsewhere around the world...and yet they flopped here. Gah. What is wrong with you, America?! I remember many were excited when Lush Life debuted only for that to be dashed quickly.
|
|
johnny16
Charting
Joined: September 2016
Posts: 44
|
Post by johnny16 on Oct 27, 2016 11:10:44 GMT -5
that drake song is number 1 on itunes for days now, it's gonna make a huge debut next week. And also million reasons by gaga
|
|
|
|
Post by kcdawg13 on Oct 27, 2016 17:29:29 GMT -5
I am betting that "Needed Me" will be #10 on the dot. I can just feel it!
|
|
scrohr424
Gold Member
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 757
|
Post by scrohr424 on Oct 27, 2016 20:42:53 GMT -5
^ Eh, I wouldn't count on it. It gained a bit over 13k this week, and even if you duplicate that point total for all three of the remaining weeks, it still wouldn't pass CSTF or Cheap Thrills where they are now, and that's before we factor in the points that those two can still score in that time. It's not passing either of those two. CSTF will definitely pass 7 Years, which is well above Needed Me. The gap between 7 Years and My House is pretty big. Needed Me looks like it'll barely pass My House. Also, george, what made you add Don't Wanna Know to possible predictions? Its chance isn't looking any better than that of 24K Magic, if I do say so. That first week at #56 was no help to it. With as many points as Heathens is still gaining, I'm hoping it ends at #21. That would be very appropriately fitting what with it spending 21 weeks on the chart. And I only noticed how much Starboy gained in this one week  If hypothetically it duplicated its point totals from this week for the next three weeks (which is a tall order admittedly) it'd come right around the border of the Top 50. Very interesting. |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 8:13:38 GMT -5
Juju On Dat Beat is so bad. I can't believe it's #11. Really, I'm stunned. I thought dumb vine memes were dead, but I guess they aren't. Watch Me and Hit The Quan and other stupid dance trends should be left in 2015 and beyond. Never to be seen again. Juju is now my #1 worst song of 2016, "Hands To Myself" is down to #2. How do you feel america? you do not want to hear "Steal Her Man"... |
|
|
|
Post by flextamcsignals on Oct 28, 2016 8:49:29 GMT -5
It's a shame that Broccoli isn't here to see a song bearing their name make the year-end list.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 10:59:21 GMT -5
^ Eh, I wouldn't count on it. It gained a bit over 13k this week, and even if you duplicate that point total for all three of the remaining weeks, it still wouldn't pass CSTF or Cheap Thrills where they are now, and that's before we factor in the points that those two can still score in that time. It's not passing either of those two. CSTF will definitely pass 7 Years, which is well above Needed Me. The gap between 7 Years and My House is pretty big. Needed Me looks like it'll barely pass My House. Also, george, what made you add Don't Wanna Know to possible predictions? Its chance isn't looking any better than that of 24K Magic, if I do say so. That first week at #56 was no help to it. With as many points as Heathens is still gaining, I'm hoping it ends at #21. That would be very appropriately fitting what with it spending 21 weeks on the chart. And I only noticed how much Starboy gained in this one week If hypothetically it duplicated its point totals from this week for the next three weeks (which is a tall order admittedly) it'd come right around the border of the Top 50. Very interesting. So 21 Pilots might get the #21 spot on the YE with 21 weeks on the chart? How did that even happen? :O |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 11:04:02 GMT -5
I am betting that "Needed Me" will be #10 on the dot. I can just feel it! how is that even possible? It needs like 30k per week for that to happen and it's not even close to that now. Closer will be #9 with CSTF at #10 and CT #11, most likely |
|
rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
|
Post by rimetm on Oct 28, 2016 11:35:00 GMT -5
I found a very interesting nugget, though its usefulness is a bit shaky since the formula changed for 2016. Apparently, these were the official formulas for the Hot 100 in 2014 and 2015:
2014: Downloads/10 + Airplay/7500 [or 75 if using Encore numbers] + On-Demand Streaming/500 + Radio Streaming/1000
2015: Downloads/10 + Airplay/10000 [or 100 if using Encore numbers(?)] + On-Demand Streaming [includes YouTube and Spotify]/750 + Radio Streaming [includes Milk and partial service on Amazon Prime and Slacker]/1500
Eeyup, there's a whole format we were ignoring, though judging by its low weight I'm guessing it wasn't exactly the biggest.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 12:09:00 GMT -5
I found a very interesting nugget, though its usefulness is a bit shaky since the formula changed for 2016. Apparently, these were the official formulas for the Hot 100 in 2014 and 2015: 2014: Downloads/10 + Airplay/7500 [or 75 if using Encore numbers] + On-Demand Streaming/500 + Radio Streaming/1000 2015: Downloads/10 + Airplay/10000 [or 100 if using Encore numbers(?)] + On-Demand Streaming [includes YouTube and Spotify]/750 + Radio Streaming [includes Milk and partial service on Amazon Prime and Slacker]/1500 Eeyup, there's a whole format we were ignoring, though judging by its low weight I'm guessing it wasn't exactly the biggest. what are Encore numbers? |
|
|
|
Post by kcdawg13 on Oct 28, 2016 12:09:16 GMT -5
I am betting that "Needed Me" will be #10 on the dot. I can just feel it! how is that even possible? It needs like 30k per week for that to happen and it's not even close to that now. Closer will be #9 with CSTF at #10 and CT #11, most likely Weird shit happens every year. You think one songs gonna be a certain spot, but it's not. |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 12:12:54 GMT -5
how is that even possible? It needs like 30k per week for that to happen and it's not even close to that now. Closer will be #9 with CSTF at #10 and CT #11, most likely Weird s**t happens every year. You think one songs gonna be a certain spot, but it's not. I guess it is possible if and only if the predictions for the year-end point totals or Closer, CSTF, CT or NM is pretty far off. But these predictions are usually pretty accurate. I guess we will see! |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 12:25:45 GMT -5
I lagged on my predictions this year, so this year Im not really doing them.
|
|
|
|
Post by adelelover321123 on Oct 29, 2016 6:16:26 GMT -5
Where do you think fake love will debut? (Sorry for my bad english)
|
|
|
|
Post by bluepotato on Oct 29, 2016 15:33:57 GMT -5
Where do you think fake love will debut? (Sorry for my bad english) #3 seems likely. |
|
If hypothetically it duplicated its point totals from this week for the next three weeks (which is a tall order admittedly) it'd come right around the border of the Top 50. Very interesting.
