Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Ravi]

Yes... a song could be counted in the year for which it had the higher rank in Billboard year-end charts and then ranking could be done based on all the chart points. There could be some pretty interesting shuffles in the new charts, maybe even new No. 1s!

I suppose gathering sales/airplay data for previous year except the recent couple ones would be too cumbersome, but starting with the year-end rank as a base, assingning to it approximte points, and then adding points for weeks outside the counting period based on weekly ranks, we could have a fairly good idea.

[Daniel Collins]

Week 11: Up to week dated 2/14/15

Formula: Sales/10 + Airplay/9,875 + Streams/775

Hot 100	Song	Points	% Streams	%Sales	%Radio
1	Uptown Funk!	85,330	37%	43%	20%
2	Thinking Out Loud	49,710	31%	44%	25%
3	Take Me To Church	35,050	32%	33%	35%
4	Blank Space	34,890	32%	27%	41%
5	Sugar	29,870	33%	50%	17%
6	Lips Are Movin	27,780	35%	31%	34%
7	I'm Not The Only One	27,280	34%	24%	42%
8	Jealous	22,120	27%	25%	47%
9	Shake It Off	21,610	50%	29%	22%
10	Centuries	20,230	34%	41%	25%

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
1	1	Taylor Swift	Blank Space	575,330	4	11	1
2	2	Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars	Uptown Funk!	550,820	1	11	1
3	3	Hozier	Take Me To Church	445,400	3	11	2
4	4	Ed Sheeran	Thinking Out Loud	350,370	2	11	2
5	5	Meghan Trainor	Lips Are Movin	325,080	6	11	4
8	6	Sam Smith	I'm Not The Only One	314,700	7	11	5
6	7	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	312,710	9	11	4
7	8	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	306,480	12	11	2
9	9	Nick Jonas	Jealous	276,640	8	11	7
10	10	Maroon 5	Animals	268,100	23	11	4
11	11	Ariana Grande & The Weeknd	Love Me Harder	261,790	16	11	7
12	12	Big Sean ft. E-40	I Don't Fuck With You	228,400	18	11	11
13	13	Selena Gomez	The Heart Wants What It Wants	225,430	19	11	6
14	14	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	207,810	34	11	6
15	15	Fall Out Boy	Centuries	199,660	10	11	10
16	16	I LOVE MAKONNEN ft. Drake	Tuesday	191,080	30	11	13
19	17	Nicki Minaj ft. Drake, Lil Wayne, Chris Brown	Only	185,620	17	11	12
18	18	James Newton Howard ft. Jennifer Lawrence	The Hanging Tree	185,440	28	10	12
17	19	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	184,740	35	11	12
21	20	Rae Sremmurd	No Type	180,190	24	11	16
20	21	Mr. Probz	Waves	175,940	39	11	14
22	22	Ed Sheeran	Don't	173,470	40	11	10
23	23	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	164,200	21	11	19
24	24	Beyonce	7/11	163,570	22	10	13
27	25	O.T. Genasis	CoCo	139,200	20	11	20
30	26	Usher ft. Juicy J	I Don't Mind	135,960	13	11	13
25	27	Bobby Shmurda	Hot Boy	134,800	-	9	15
26	28	Calvin Harris ft. John Newmann	Blame	132,020	-	10	21
31	29	Vance Joy	Riptide	123,660	32	11	30
28	30	Jeremih ft. YG	Don't Tell 'Em	123,440	-	10	22
29	31	Iggy Azalea ft. Rita Ora	Black Widow	119,610	-	10	23
33	32	Sia	Chandelier	116,520	37	11	30
32	33	Iggy Azalea ft. M0	Beg For It	114,440	83	11	27
37	34	Ella Henderson	Ghost	110,480	26	11	22
34	35	MAGIC!	Rude	110,020	44	11	27
35	36	Alesso ft. Tove Lo	Heroes (We Could Be)	106,690	42	11	31
36	37	One Direction	Night Changes	105,180	51	11	31
38	38	Carrie Underwood	Something In The Water	100,800	55	11	37
39	39	Fergie	L.A.LOVE (la la)	95,090	84	11	27
41	40	Tim McGraw	Shotgun Rider	92,150	74	11	38
42	41	Dej Loaf	Try Me	90,870	60	11	45
40	42	Jason Derulo	Trumpets	89,330	-	7	17
51	43	Pitbull ft. Ne-yo	Time Of Our Lives	88,670	11	8	11
59	44	Maroon 5	Sugar	87,390	5	3	5
44	45	Eric Church	Talladega	85,360	46	11	43
45	46	Florida Georgia Line	Sun Daze	81,600	47	11	44
43	47	Clean Bandit ft. Jess Glynne	Rather Be	79,910	-	8	28
52	48	OneRepublic	I Lived	77,110	45	10	32
54	49	Imagine Dragons	I Bet My Life	73,500	54	11	54
55	50	Luke Bryan	I See You	73,130	41	10	41
50	51	One Direction	Steal My Girl	73,080	99	11	29
46	52	Rich Gang ft. Young Thug, Rich Homie Quan	Lifestyle	73,040	-	7	27
53	53	Brad Paisley	Perfect Storm	71,650	93	11	52
47	54	Milky Chance	Stolen Dance	70,740	-	8	39
48	55	Trey Songz ft. Nicki Minaj	Touchin, Lovin	70,530	-	9	44
57	56	Flo Rida ft. Sage The Gemini, Lookas	G.D.F.R.	70,390	31	10	31
49	57	DJ Khaled ft. Chris Brown, August Alsina, Future, Jeremih	Hold You Down	70,220	-	9	39
56	58	Fifth Harmony	Sledgehammer	68,400	53	10	40
65	59	Ne-yo ft. Juicy J	She Knows	67,810	25	10	25
58	60	Lee Brice	Drinking Class	65,300	61	11	60
67	61	Lillywood & Robin Schulz	Prayer In C	64,220	33	9	33
63	62	The Weeknd	Often	61,530	64	11	59
61	63	David Guetta ft. Sam Martin	Dangerous	61,450	87	11	56
68	64	Blake Shelton ft. Ashley Monroe	Lonely Tonight	61,030	48	9	48
66	65	Thomas Rhett	Make Me Wanna	60,900	52	11	52
62	66	Kenny Chesney	Til It's Gone	60,450	86	11	60
64	67	RaeLynn	God Made Girls	59,300	78	11	61
60	68	Nicki Minaj	Anaconda	57,330	-	7	48
72	69	Brett Eldredge	Mean To Me	52,110	66	11	66
89	70	Ellie Goulding	Love Me Like You Do	51,970	14	4	14
73	71	Nicki Minaj ft. Beyonce	Feeling Myself	51,860	58	7	43
69	72	Pentatonix	Mary, Did You Know?	51,470	-	6	26
76	73	Jason Aldean	Just Getting' Started	51,400	59	9	59
82	74	Taylor Swift	Style	51,320	29	7	29
75	75	Walk The Moon	Shut Up + Dance	50,980	63	10	63
78	76	Sia	Elastic Heart	50,650	36	4	17
71	77	Beyonce ft. Nicki Minaj, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie	***Flawless	49,170	100	10	41
74	78	Kid Ink ft. Usher, Tinashe	Body Language	48,010	94	11	72
70	79	Keith Urban	Somewhere In My Car	47,600	-	8	51
85	80	Weeknd	Earned It (Fifty Shades Of Grey)	46,400	38	6	27
87	81	Randy Houser	Like A Cowboy	41,380	62	9	62
77	82	August Alsina	No Love	41,190	-	9	69
79	83	Echosmith	Cool Kids	40,260	-	4	30
80	84	Parmalee	Close Your Eyes	40,200	-	8	69
81	85	Lorde	Yellow Flicker Beat	39,510	-	7	34
94	86	Prince Royce ft. Snoop Dogg	Stuck On A Feeling	39,330	43	6	43
83	87	Colbie Caillat	Try	37,500	-	7	65
84	88	TI ft. Young Thug	About The Money	37,200	-	5	50
93	89	Chris Young	Lonely Eyes	36,250	70	7	70
92	90	Darius Rucker	Homegrown Honey	35,610	77	8	77
86	91	Chris Brown ft. Usher, Rick Ross	New Flame	34,600	-	4	37
88	92	Ariana Grande	Santa Tell Me	34,180	-	5	42
98	93	J.Cole	Apparently	33,250	65	7	65
90	94	Maddie And Tae	Girl In A Country Song	33,020	-	5	54
102	95	Calvin Harris ft. Ellie Goulding	Outside	32,000	50	5	50
91	96	Nico & Vinz	In Your Arms	31,850	-	7	79
104	97	Sam Hunt	Take Your Time	30,450	49	5	49
101	98	Kanye West ft. Paul McCartney	Only One	30,410	68	4	35
95	99	Nicki Minaj ft. Skylar Grey	Bed Of Lies	29,900	-	6	62
96	100	Blake Shelton	Neon Light	29,550	-	7	64

Bubbling Under:

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
141	105	Rihanna & Kanye West & Paul McCartney	FourFiveSeconds	25,460	15	2	15

[Deleted]

Uptown Funk will be #1 next week!
85,330 wow! :O That is the third-most weekly points (excluding Harlem Shake of course...I still don't believe it deserved that many points for numerous 30-second dance videos) after Shake It Off and Wrecking Ball! I'm so proud

[Daniel Collins]

Most accumulated points in a week since Mar. 2013

1.Harlem Shake 251k (1st week #1)
2.Harlem Shake 243k (2nd week #1)
3.Harlem Shake 140k (3rd week #1)
4.Wrecking Ball 126k (1st week #1)
5.Harlem Shake 123k (4th week #1)
6.Shake It Off 87k (1st week #1)
7.Uptown Funk! 85k (5th week #1)
8.Blurred Lines 82k (9th week #1)
9.Blank Space 76.3k (1/10/15)
10.Blurred Lines 76k (10th week #1)

11.Harlem Shake 75k (5th week #1)
12.Happy 74.9k (3rd week #1)
13.Roar 74k (2nd week #1)
14.Uptown Funk! 72.9k (3rd week #1)
15.Thrift Shop 72k (4th week #1)
16.Anaconda 71.4k (1st week #2)
17.Blurred Lines 70.5k (6th week #1)
18.Blank Space 70.2k (11/29/14)
19.Blurred Lines 70k (7th week #1)

[Deleted]

Interesting how Blurred Lines peaked 3/4 of the way into its run at #1 lol. No wonder it kept Roar from #1 for two weeks!

[tucomrang]

not Uptown Funk (on its 5th week) has SIO's first week kinda points  Poor Blank Space, hopefully Style will revenge for ha.

[Daniel Collins]

Note: 2015 points system is adjusted to reduce streaming effects.
I tried putting UF's current stats in the 2014 formula and it's equivalent to 94k.

[jarhys]

Thinking Out Loud has less chance to be #1. Uptown Funk is too hard to beat, and FourFiveSeconds & Style are coming.

[Deleted]

Feb 7, 2015 10:35:39 GMT -5 jarhys said:

Thinking Out Loud has less chance to be #1. Uptown Funk is too hard to beat, and FourFiveSeconds & Style are coming.

Hopefully Ed kills his Grammy performance and somehow sneaks in a week at #1...praying for that to happen! Ed deserves a #1!

[brucelover]

Uptown Funk = Happy
Thinking Out Loud = All of Me
Blank Space = Timber

[Daniel Collins]

^I really hope "Blank Space" would be a "Timber" rather than "The Monster".

[jarhys]

Feb 8, 2015 4:03:09 GMT -5 brucelover said:

Uptown Funk = Happy
Thinking Out Loud = All of Me
Blank Space = Timber

Uptown Funk = Thrift Shop
Thinking Out Loud = When I Was Your Man
Blank Space = Locked Out Of Heaven

[tucomrang]

Feb 8, 2015 6:48:30 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

^I really hope "Blank Space" would be a "Timber" rather than "The Monster".

BS already has more points than Timber when it was on its 11th week so why not BS = Dark Horse 

[Deleted]

Feb 8, 2015 9:48:50 GMT -5 tucomrang said:

Feb 8, 2015 6:48:30 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

^I really hope "Blank Space" would be a "Timber" rather than "The Monster".

BS already has more points than Timber when it was on its 11th week so why not BS = Dark Horse 

Because if BS = Timber then TMTC = CS :'(

[tucomrang]

Feb 8, 2015 16:48:03 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Feb 8, 2015 9:48:50 GMT -5 tucomrang said:

BS already has more points than Timber when it was on its 11th week so why not BS = Dark Horse 

Because if BS = Timber then TMTC = CS :'(

Actually I think TMTC = Pompeii, I dont feel like it's big as CS

[Dylan :)]

Will Love Me Like You Do be the Let It Go of 2015?

[Deleted]

Feb 12, 2015 11:51:49 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Will Love Me Like You Do be the Let It Go of 2015?

No because it is a much better song than Let It Go though I do hope it does as well as LIG did or better

[Future Captain]

The difference is Let It Go has basically zero airplay, Love Me Like You Do is to going to smash in Radio

[Dylan :)]

I just meant in terms of it being a soundtrack, but yeah, I hope it does just as well, if not better, than Let It Go did! Imagine Let It Go would've done if it did have airplay.

[pranavdimensions]

Love me like you do is currently #1 in UK!

[Dylan :)]

Feb 14, 2015 0:54:19 GMT -5 pranavdimensions said:

Love me like you do is currently #1 in UK!

It debuted at #1 in Ireland, and sent its second week there, this week.

[Future Captain]

So Uptown Funk seemed to be set for that year-end #1. I'm a bit disappointed because that mean we won't see Mark G. do what he do for a good three months (Or more? Pretty sure he do it for quite some time) last year.

[Rocky]

Feb 14, 2015 8:56:02 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

So Uptown Funk seemed to be set for that year-end #1. I'm a bit disappointed because that mean we won't see Mark G. do what he do for a good three months (Or more? Pretty sure he do it for quite some time) last year.

Oh, I'm so sad.

[jjose712]

It's simply too soon to announce a number one of the year, you never know when the next monster hit is going to appear

[Deleted]

Feb 14, 2015 9:18:30 GMT -5 jjose712 said:

It's simply too soon to announce a number one of the year, you never know when the next monster hit is going to appear

Yeah true the number ones of 2011 and 2012 hadn't peaked until mid-spring so we don't know that this year's year-end #1 will be

[Daniel Collins]

Week 12: Up to week dated 2/21/15

Formula: Sales/10 + Airplay/9,875 + Streams/775

Hot 100	Song	Points	% Streams	%Sales	%Radio
1	Uptown Funk!	72,820	32%	44%	24%
2	Thinking Out Loud	56,260	28%	48%	25%
3	Take Me To Church	36,930	30%	37%	33%
4	Sugar	33,940	31%	49%	20%
5	Blank Space	32,540	32%	26%	42%
6	FourFiveSeconds	27,660	18%	65%	17%
7	Lips Are Movin	27,300	33%	30%	36%
8	I'm Not The Only One	26,470	34%	29%	37%
9	Love Me Like You Do	22,100	33%	52%	15%
10	Shake It Off	21,080	49%	30%	21%

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
2	1	Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars	Uptown Funk!	623,640	1	12	1
1	2	Taylor Swift	Blank Space	607,870	5	12	1
3	3	Hozier	Take Me To Church	482,330	3	12	2
4	4	Ed Sheeran	Thinking Out Loud	406,630	2	12	2
5	5	Meghan Trainor	Lips Are Movin	352,380	7	12	4
6	6	Sam Smith	I'm Not The Only One	341,170	8	12	5
7	7	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	333,790	10	12	4
8	8	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	324,280	16	12	2
9	9	Nick Jonas	Jealous	295,810	12	12	7
10	10	Maroon 5	Animals	280,830	28	12	4
11	11	Ariana Grande & The Weeknd	Love Me Harder	277,600	21	12	7
12	12	Big Sean ft. E-40	I Don't Fuck With You	244,360	19	12	11
13	13	Selena Gomez	The Heart Wants What It Wants	239,190	24	12	6
15	14	Fall Out Boy	Centuries	218,080	15	12	10
14	15	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	216,810	41	12	6
17	16	Nicki Minaj ft. Drake, Lil Wayne, Chris Brown	Only	203,100	17	12	12
16	17	I LOVE MAKONNEN ft. Drake	Tuesday	201,830	37	12	13
19	18	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	195,240	38	12	12
18	19	James Newton Howard ft. Jennifer Lawrence	The Hanging Tree	193,240	53	11	12
20	20	Rae Sremmurd	No Type	193,130	27	12	16
21	21	Mr. Probz	Waves	184,440	46	12	14
23	22	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	183,000	14	12	14
22	23	Ed Sheeran	Don't	182,270	43	12	10
24	24	Beyonce	7/11	179,390	20	11	13
26	25	Usher ft. Juicy J	I Don't Mind	155,110	13	12	13
25	26	O.T. Genasis	CoCo	153,150	22	12	20
29	27	Vance Joy	Riptide	134,880	33	12	30
27	28	Bobby Shmurda	Hot Boy	134,800	-	9	15
28	29	Calvin Harris ft. John Newmann	Blame	132,020	-	10	21
32	30	Sia	Chandelier	127,760	32	12	30
34	31	Ella Henderson	Ghost	124,240	25	12	22
30	32	Jeremih ft. YG	Don't Tell 'Em	123,440	-	10	22
44	33	Maroon 5	Sugar	121,330	4	4	4
31	34	Iggy Azalea ft. Rita Ora	Black Widow	119,610	-	10	23
33	35	Iggy Azalea ft. M0	Beg For It	118,340	91	12	27
36	36	Alesso ft. Tove Lo	Heroes (We Could Be)	114,190	56	12	31
37	37	One Direction	Night Changes	113,280	50	12	31
35	38	MAGIC!	Rude	110,020	-	11	27
43	39	Pitbull ft. Ne-yo	Time Of Our Lives	108,310	11	9	11
38	40	Carrie Underwood	Something In The Water	106,000	74	12	37
39	41	Fergie	L.A.LOVE (la la)	98,890	92	12	27
40	42	Tim McGraw	Shotgun Rider	96,800	82	12	38
41	43	Dej Loaf	Try Me	96,370	71	12	45
45	44	Eric Church	Talladega	92,760	57	12	43
46	45	Florida Georgia Line	Sun Daze	89,900	48	12	44
42	46	Jason Derulo	Trumpets	89,330	-	7	17
48	47	OneRepublic	I Lived	84,710	55	11	32
56	48	Flo Rida ft. Sage The Gemini, Lookas	G.D.F.R.	81,970	31	11	31
50	49	Luke Bryan	I See You	81,830	44	11	41
59	50	Ne-yo ft. Juicy J	She Knows	81,760	23	11	23
49	51	Imagine Dragons	I Bet My Life	80,100	63	12	54
47	52	Clean Bandit ft. Jess Glynne	Rather Be	79,910	-	8	28
61	53	Lillywood & Robin Schulz	Prayer In C	76,580	30	10	30
58	54	Fifth Harmony	Sledgehammer	76,300	52	11	40
70	55	Ellie Goulding	Love Me Like You Do	74,070	9	5	9
51	56	One Direction	Steal My Girl	73,080	-	11	29
52	57	Rich Gang ft. Young Thug, Rich Homie Quan	Lifestyle	73,040	-	7	27
60	58	Lee Brice	Drinking Class	71,700	64	12	60
53	59	Brad Paisley	Perfect Storm	71,650	-	11	52
54	60	Milky Chance	Stolen Dance	70,740	-	8	39
55	61	Trey Songz ft. Nicki Minaj	Touchin, Lovin	70,530	-	9	44
57	62	DJ Khaled ft. Chris Brown, August Alsina, Future, Jeremih	Hold You Down	70,220	-	9	39
65	63	Thomas Rhett	Make Me Wanna	69,100	49	12	49
64	64	Blake Shelton ft. Ashley Monroe	Lonely Tonight	69,030	51	10	48
62	65	The Weeknd	Often	67,430	67	12	59
74	66	Taylor Swift	Style	67,410	18	8	18
67	67	RaeLynn	God Made Girls	62,800	95	12	61
63	68	David Guetta ft. Sam Martin	Dangerous	61,450	-	11	56
76	69	Sia	Elastic Heart	60,900	39	5	17
66	70	Kenny Chesney	Til It's Gone	60,450	-	11	60
71	71	Nicki Minaj ft. Beyonce	Feeling Myself	58,860	61	8	43
80	72	Weeknd	Earned It (Fifty Shades Of Grey)	58,790	29	7	27
69	73	Brett Eldredge	Mean To Me	58,310	65	12	65
73	74	Jason Aldean	Just Getting' Started	58,200	62	10	59
68	75	Nicki Minaj	Anaconda	57,330	-	7	48
75	76	Walk The Moon	Shut Up + Dance	56,980	66	11	63
105	77	Rihanna & Kanye West & Paul McCartney	FourFiveSeconds	53,120	6	3	6
78	78	Kid Ink ft. Usher, Tinashe	Body Language	52,510	85	12	72
77	79	Beyonce ft. Nicki Minaj, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie	***Flawless	52,470	97	11	41
72	80	Pentatonix	Mary, Did You Know?	51,470	-	6	26
86	81	Prince Royce ft. Snoop Dogg	Stuck On A Feeling	47,930	45	7	43
79	82	Keith Urban	Somewhere In My Car	47,600	-	8	51
81	83	Randy Houser	Like A Cowboy	47,180	68	10	62
89	84	Chris Young	Lonely Eyes	41,550	73	8	70
82	85	August Alsina	No Love	41,190	-	9	69
93	86	J.Cole	Apparently	40,550	58	8	58
90	87	Darius Rucker	Homegrown Honey	40,410	79	9	77
95	88	Calvin Harris ft. Ellie Goulding	Outside	40,400	47	6	47
83	89	Echosmith	Cool Kids	40,260	-	4	30
84	90	Parmalee	Close Your Eyes	40,200	-	8	69
101	91	Chris Brown & Tyga	Ayo	39,820	36	5	36
85	92	Lorde	Yellow Flicker Beat	39,510	-	7	34
97	93	Sam Hunt	Take Your Time	39,350	42	6	42
87	94	Colbie Caillat	Try	37,500	-	7	65
88	95	TI ft. Young Thug	About The Money	37,200	-	5	50
98	96	Kanye West ft. Paul McCartney	Only One	36,110	69	5	35
91	97	Chris Brown ft. Usher, Rick Ross	New Flame	34,600	-	4	37
109	98	Kelly Clarkson	Heartbeat Song	34,510	34	4	34
92	99	Ariana Grande	Santa Tell Me	34,180	-	5	42
94	100	Maddie And Tae	Girl In A Country Song	33,020	-	5	54

[Mr. Thonk Eyes]

@markg94

[Deleted]

Feb 14, 2015 23:42:40 GMT -5 Mr. Thonk Eyes said:

@markg94

[Future Captain]

Feb 15, 2015 7:52:59 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Feb 14, 2015 23:42:40 GMT -5 Mr. Thonk Eyes said:

@markg94

Nice to see that you're "Happy" that UF is now #1 let's just hope there isn't any "Dark Horse" to ruin the party

[Dylan :)]

Wonder where Chandelier will finish this year