Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Deleted]

FourFiveSeconds might have jumped into top 50 this week

[mamooshka]

Any ideas why Imagine Dragons' "I Bet My Life" peaked only at a lowly 53? Should have been a Top 5 hit, don't ya think?

[Dylan :)]

Not selling much, low radio. But it is gaining because of the album

[Daniel Collins]

Week 13: Up to week dated 2/28/15

Formula: Sales/10 + Airplay/9,875 + Streams/775

Hot 100	Song	Points	% Streams	%Sales	%Radio
1	Uptown Funk!	71,910	33%	42%	25%
2	Thinking Out Loud	64,510	28%	49%	23%
3	Take Me To Church	42,290	36%	37%	27%
4	FourFiveSeconds	37,910	16%	69%	15%
5	Sugar	37,180	31%	48%	22%
6	Love Me Like You Do	31,680	32%	54%	14%
7	Blank Space	31,000	31%	27%	42%
8	I'm Not The Only One	27,420	36%	34%	30%
9	Lips Are Movin	25,430	35%	28%	38%
10	Style	24,880	19%	46%	35%

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
1	1	Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars	Uptown Funk!	695,550	1	13	1
2	2	Taylor Swift	Blank Space	638,870	7	13	1
3	3	Hozier	Take Me To Church	524,620	3	13	2
4	4	Ed Sheeran	Thinking Out Loud	471,140	2	13	2
5	5	Meghan Trainor	Lips Are Movin	377,810	9	13	4
6	6	Sam Smith	I'm Not The Only One	368,590	8	13	5
7	7	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	353,150	15	13	4
8	8	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	341,980	17	13	2
9	9	Nick Jonas	Jealous	312,820	18	13	7
10	10	Maroon 5	Animals	292,810	31	13	4
11	11	Ariana Grande & The Weeknd	Love Me Harder	290,970	27	13	7
12	12	Big Sean ft. E-40	I Don't Fuck With You	260,030	21	13	11
13	13	Selena Gomez	The Heart Wants What It Wants	250,080	34	13	6
14	14	Fall Out Boy	Centuries	236,940	16	13	10
15	15	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	225,210	47	13	6
16	16	Nicki Minaj ft. Drake, Lil Wayne, Chris Brown	Only	220,050	19	13	12
17	17	I LOVE MAKONNEN ft. Drake	Tuesday	211,470	40	13	13
22	18	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	207,200	11	13	11
20	19	Rae Sremmurd	No Type	205,210	30	13	16
18	20	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	205,120	39	13	12
19	21	James Newton Howard ft. Jennifer Lawrence	The Hanging Tree	198,540	73	12	12
24	22	Beyonce	7/11	194,150	23	12	13
23	23	Ed Sheeran	Don't	192,170	38	13	10
21	24	Mr. Probz	Waves	184,440	-	12	14
25	25	Usher ft. Juicy J	I Don't Mind	174,790	14	13	13
26	26	O.T. Genasis	CoCo	166,750	26	13	20
33	27	Maroon 5	Sugar	158,510	5	5	4
27	28	Vance Joy	Riptide	146,230	32	13	30
30	29	Sia	Chandelier	143,770	20	13	20
31	30	Ella Henderson	Ghost	138,630	25	13	22
28	31	Bobby Shmurda	Hot Boy	134,800	-	9	15
29	32	Calvin Harris ft. John Newmann	Blame	132,020	-	10	21
39	33	Pitbull ft. Ne-yo	Time Of Our Lives	128,160	13	10	11
32	34	Jeremih ft. YG	Don't Tell 'Em	123,440	-	10	22
37	35	One Direction	Night Changes	121,380	50	13	31
36	36	Alesso ft. Tove Lo	Heroes (We Could Be)	120,990	62	13	31
34	37	Iggy Azalea ft. Rita Ora	Black Widow	119,610	-	10	23
35	38	Iggy Azalea ft. M0	Beg For It	118,340	-	12	27
40	39	Carrie Underwood	Something In The Water	110,800	79	13	37
38	40	MAGIC!	Rude	110,020	-	11	27
55	41	Ellie Goulding	Love Me Like You Do	105,750	6	6	6
42	42	Tim McGraw	Shotgun Rider	101,350	84	13	38
43	43	Dej Loaf	Try Me	101,220	78	13	45
41	44	Fergie	L.A.LOVE (la la)	98,890	-	12	27
44	45	Eric Church	Talladega	98,560	68	13	43
45	46	Florida Georgia Line	Sun Daze	98,200	48	13	44
50	47	Ne-yo ft. Juicy J	She Knows	96,310	24	12	23
48	48	Flo Rida ft. Sage The Gemini, Lookas	G.D.F.R.	95,240	28	12	28
47	49	OneRepublic	I Lived	92,310	55	12	32
66	50	Taylor Swift	Style	92,290	10	9	10
77	51	Rihanna & Kanye West & Paul McCartney	FourFiveSeconds	91,030	4	4	4
49	52	Luke Bryan	I See You	90,330	46	12	41
53	53	Lillywood & Robin Schulz	Prayer In C	89,480	29	11	29
46	54	Jason Derulo	Trumpets	89,330	-	7	17
51	55	Imagine Dragons	I Bet My Life	87,800	54	13	54
54	56	Fifth Harmony	Sledgehammer	81,700	72	12	40
52	57	Clean Bandit ft. Jess Glynne	Rather Be	79,910	-	8	28
72	58	Weeknd	Earned It (Fifty Shades Of Grey)	78,670	12	8	12
63	59	Thomas Rhett	Make Me Wanna	77,920	43	13	43
58	60	Lee Brice	Drinking Class	77,900	65	13	60
64	61	Blake Shelton ft. Ashley Monroe	Lonely Tonight	77,030	51	11	48
65	62	The Weeknd	Often	74,430	61	13	59
56	63	One Direction	Steal My Girl	73,080	-	11	29
57	64	Rich Gang ft. Young Thug, Rich Homie Quan	Lifestyle	73,040	-	7	27
69	65	Sia	Elastic Heart	71,720	35	6	17
59	66	Brad Paisley	Perfect Storm	71,650	-	11	52
60	67	Milky Chance	Stolen Dance	70,740	-	8	39
61	68	Trey Songz ft. Nicki Minaj	Touchin, Lovin	70,530	-	9	44
62	69	DJ Khaled ft. Chris Brown, August Alsina, Future, Jeremih	Hold You Down	70,220	-	9	39
71	70	Nicki Minaj ft. Beyonce	Feeling Myself	65,960	60	9	43
73	71	Brett Eldredge	Mean To Me	64,910	63	13	63
74	72	Jason Aldean	Just Getting' Started	64,600	64	11	59
76	73	Walk The Moon	Shut Up + Dance	64,380	57	12	57
67	74	RaeLynn	God Made Girls	62,800	-	12	61
68	75	David Guetta ft. Sam Martin	Dangerous	61,450	-	11	56
70	76	Kenny Chesney	Til It's Gone	60,450	-	11	60
75	77	Nicki Minaj	Anaconda	57,330	-	7	48
81	78	Prince Royce ft. Snoop Dogg	Stuck On A Feeling	55,830	52	8	43
83	79	Randy Houser	Like A Cowboy	53,180	66	11	62
78	80	Kid Ink ft. Usher, Tinashe	Body Language	52,510	-	12	72
79	81	Beyonce ft. Nicki Minaj, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie	***Flawless	52,470	-	11	41
80	82	Pentatonix	Mary, Did You Know?	51,470	-	6	26
91	83	Chris Brown & Tyga	Ayo	51,010	33	6	33
93	84	Sam Hunt	Take Your Time	49,420	36	7	36
88	85	Calvin Harris ft. Ellie Goulding	Outside	49,260	42	7	42
86	86	J.Cole	Apparently	47,750	59	9	58
82	87	Keith Urban	Somewhere In My Car	47,600	-	8	51
84	88	Chris Young	Lonely Eyes	47,050	71	9	70
102	89	Nicki Minaj ft. Drake, Lil Wayne	Truffle Butter	46,510	22	4	22
87	90	Darius Rucker	Homegrown Honey	45,310	77	10	77
96	91	Kanye West ft. Paul McCartney	Only One	44,710	45	6	35
98	92	Kelly Clarkson	Heartbeat Song	43,210	44	5	34
85	93	August Alsina	No Love	41,190	-	9	69
89	94	Echosmith	Cool Kids	40,260	-	4	30
90	95	Parmalee	Close Your Eyes	40,200	-	8	69
92	96	Lorde	Yellow Flicker Beat	39,510	-	7	34
94	97	Colbie Caillat	Try	37,500	-	7	65
95	98	TI ft. Young Thug	About The Money	37,200	-	5	50
104	99	Sheppard	Geronimo	34,910	74	8	74
97	100	Chris Brown ft. Usher, Rick Ross	New Flame	34,600	-	4	37

[Daniel Collins]

Feb 19, 2015 19:04:00 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

FourFiveSeconds might have jumped into top 50 this week

Close call

[Deleted]

Feb 21, 2015 1:10:04 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

Feb 19, 2015 19:04:00 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

FourFiveSeconds might have jumped into top 50 this week

Close call

Yeah I was about to say it lol 

[Deleted]

Question guys, Mr Probz - Waves just dropped out and has 184K points, do you guys think this is enough for it to reach the year ends chart? or does it have a chance of not getting on it...

I follow HrCharts charts when it posts on Youtube and some guys are saying Waves has no chance of reaching it, but I think it has a chance, since if I remember correctly last year, She Looks So Perfect had 178000 and it made top 100

[Adel is not icant]

@walker9, it might be listed on YE chart around 88-90. Or maybe this year's competition is tighter than then so it would be listed above #90 but I'm sure it would make the list

[Dylan :)]

Since The Heart Wants What It Wants is pretty much dead, where do you guys think it'll finish out on the year end charts?

[Mr. Thonk Eyes]

Feb 21, 2015 16:35:03 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Since The Heart Wants What It Wants is pretty much dead, where do you guys think it'll finish out on the year end charts?

I think it could end up somewhere in the 40's-50's

[Adel is not icant]

No. It would be #80-#100.

[Daniel Collins]

It's currently #13 so it won't go lower than #60.

[born]

Feb 22, 2015 6:09:24 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

It's currently #13 so it won't go lower than #60.

What are your predictions for the songs from this week's[Week ending Feb 28th] top 10(plus Shake It Off and Stay With Me)?? 
Tell me (approximately) where these songs will end up according to your opinion.

[Adel is not icant]

Feb 23, 2015 11:33:01 GMT -5 born said:

Feb 22, 2015 6:09:24 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

It's currently #13 so it won't go lower than #60.

What are your predictions for the songs from this week's[Week ending Feb 28th] top 10(plus Shake It Off and Stay With Me)?? 
Tell me (approximately) where these songs will end up according to your opinion.

he won't answer

[Deleted]

4:5:Seconds could make top 30 with tomorrow's ranking. Very possible...

[Daniel Collins]

Feb 25, 2015 4:57:18 GMT -5 Adel is not icant said:

Feb 23, 2015 11:33:01 GMT -5 born said:

What are your predictions for the songs from this week's[Week ending Feb 28th] top 10(plus Shake It Off and Stay With Me)?? 
Tell me (approximately) where these songs will end up according to your opinion.

he won't answer

Awww

[Daniel Collins]

I don't really predict without basis that's why I'm not answering questions of this type but let me give this try for now. "Uptown Funk!" ,"Thinking Out Loud" should be top 10. Probably #s 1 and 2. "Take Me To Church" and "Blank Space" looks like it would stay on top 10 for a while but I won't be surprised if they might be dethroned towards the end just like "Timber".
"FourFiveSeconds", "Sugar", "Love Me Like You Do" would at least be top 25 and maybe 2 of them may be top 10. No one knows. Not yet sure where "Style" is headed but I'd say top 40. "Lips Are Movin" and "i'm Not The Only One" are headed for top 30.
'

[Daniel Collins]

I want to see @markg94's insight. Go on

[Deleted]

Feb 26, 2015 10:57:06 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

I want to see @markg94's insight. Go on

I think (hope) Uptown Funk! can be year-end #1 (it is possible for it at this point to get as many weeks as Blurred Lines at #1). #2 might be a song that didn't come out/debut on the charts yet (similar to BL and PRA). Taylor (Blank Space), Ed or Hozier could be #3, depending on how well each one holds up. AATB and SIO might end up 26-30. Animals top 40 hopefully. I can see Sugar being top 20 (probably not top ten because its sales probably aren't going to be quite as strong as those of Payphone or even OMN). FourFiveSeconds is (I'm predicting) going to die too soon to be year-end top 20. It just doesn't seem like the kind of song that will last long and I think it has already peaked.

[Dylan :)]

I want to know where people think Love Me Harder, Jealous and Chandelier will finish out. If Chandelier makes 52 weeks, I'm guessing 60-50. If Love Me Harder gets a few more weeks, I say top 40 or 30, highest around 25. And Jealous, I say early 20s.

[jarhys]

According to the last year's prediction, LY is what the song's position in last year prediction right now.
(I kicked off some songs that already dropped off and have almost no chance entering 2015 year-end chart.)

LY	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
14	1	Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars	Uptown Funk!	695,550	1	13	1
17	2	Taylor Swift	Blank Space	638,870	7	13	1
25	3	Hozier	Take Me To Church	524,620	3	13	2
28	4	Ed Sheeran	Thinking Out Loud	471,140	2	13	2
45	5	Meghan Trainor	Lips Are Movin	377,810	9	13	4
46	6	Sam Smith	I'm Not The Only One	368,590	8	13	5
47	7	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	353,150	15	13	4
47	8	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	341,980	17	13	2
50	9	Nick Jonas	Jealous	312,820	18	13	7
56	10	Maroon 5	Animals	292,810	31	13	4
56	11	Ariana Grande & The Weeknd	Love Me Harder	290,970	27	13	7
63	12	Big Sean ft. E-40	I Don't f**k With You	260,030	21	13	11
68	13	Selena Gomez	The Heart Wants What It Wants	250,080	34	13	6
72	14	Fall Out Boy	Centuries	236,940	16	13	10
74	15	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	225,210	47	13	6
74	16	Nicki Minaj ft. Drake, Lil Wayne, Chris Brown	Only	220,050	19	13	12
77	17	I LOVE MAKONNEN ft. Drake	Tuesday	211,470	40	13	13
77	18	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	207,200	11	13	11
77	19	Rae Sremmurd	No Type	205,210	30	13	16
77	20	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	205,120	39	13	12
80	21	James Newton Howard ft. Jennifer Lawrence	The Hanging Tree	198,540	73	12	12
84	22	Beyonce	7/11	194,150	23	12	13
84	23	Ed Sheeran	Don't	192,170	38	13	10
96	24	Mr. Probz	Waves	184,440	-	12	14
105	25	Usher ft. Juicy J	I Don't Mind	174,790	14	13	13
110	26	O.T. Genasis	CoCo	166,750	26	13	20
119	27	Maroon 5	Sugar	158,510	5	5	4
129	28	Vance Joy	Riptide	146,230	32	13	30
132	29	Sia	Chandelier	143,770	20	13	20
138	30	Ella Henderson	Ghost	138,630	25	13	22
154	33	Pitbull ft. Ne-yo	Time Of Our Lives	128,160	13	10	11
160	35	One Direction	Night Changes	121,380	50	13	31
162	36	Alesso ft. Tove Lo	Heroes (We Could Be)	120,990	62	13	31
177	39	Carrie Underwood	Something In The Water	110,800	79	13	37
186	41	Ellie Goulding	Love Me Like You Do	105,750	6	6	6
189	42	Tim McGraw	Shotgun Rider	101,350	84	13	38
189	43	Dej Loaf	Try Me	101,220	78	13	45
191	45	Eric Church	Talladega	98,560	68	13	43
191	46	Florida Georgia Line	Sun Daze	98,200	48	13	44
192	47	Ne-yo ft. Juicy J	She Knows	96,310	24	12	23
194	48	Flo Rida ft. Sage The Gemini, Lookas	G.D.F.R.	95,240	28	12	28
196	49	OneRepublic	I Lived	92,310	55	12	32
196	50	Taylor Swift	Style	92,290	10	9	10
199	51	Rihanna & Kanye West & Paul McCartney	FourFiveSeconds	91,030	4	4	4
199	52	Luke Bryan	I See You	90,330	46	12	41
199	53	Lillywood & Robin Schulz	Prayer In C	89,480	29	11	29
200	55	Imagine Dragons	I Bet My Life	87,800	54	13	54

[Dylan :)]

Can someone please explain this? ^

[Deleted]

Feb 27, 2015 12:35:25 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Can someone please explain this? ^

The bolded positions on the left side of the table are the positions that the corresponding song would be on the 2014 year-end chart right now.

[Deleted]

If this is the case, then Waves this year will barely make the charts? I hope it does

[jarhys]

Feb 27, 2015 12:42:39 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Feb 27, 2015 12:35:25 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Can someone please explain this? ^

The bolded positions on the left side of the table are the positions that the corresponding song would be on the 2014 year-end chart right now.

Thanks for the explanation. :)

Feb 27, 2015 13:39:32 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

If this is the case, then Waves this year will barely make the charts? I hope it does

I hope it makes it, too.

[Daniel Collins]

[drama]

I really feel that my prediction for this year would be less accurate than last year. I think I'm far from the actual formula. I really hope that Billboard just had a typo when they said UF! gained 2% , whatever calculation I make it actually lose 2% because even though it gained 1.2M streams and 6M audience ,it has a decrease of 44k in sales.

TOL's points also doesn't match with what I have. On my estimate it lost 20% but Billboard said it only lost 16%
Lastly, using the recent formula that I'm using "Earned It" (#9) would be above "Style" (#8), Billboard disclosed all the data for the 2 songs so that means I'm not even close to their formula.

My point here is that you lower your expectations 'cause I don't think I could do the "almost perfect top 40" once again.

[/drama]

[Daniel Collins]

Week 14: Up to week dated 3/7/15

Formula: Sales/10 + Airplay/9,650 + Streams/775

Hot 100	Song	Points	% Streams	%Sales	%Radio
1	Uptown Funk!	70,630	36%	36%	27%
2	Thinking Out Loud	52,080	31%	39%	30%
3	Love Me Like You Do	38,280	32%	54%	14%
4	Sugar	36,760	28%	45%	26%
5	Take Me To Church	31,390	33%	34%	33%
6	FourFiveSeconds	29,460	17%	59%	25%
7	Blank Space	28,370	34%	24%	42%
8	Style	25,010	19%	40%	42%
9	Earned It (Fifty Shades Of Grey)	24,990	43%	48%	9%
10	Lips Are Movin	23,700	36%	25%	38%

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
1	1	Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars	Uptown Funk!	766,180	1	14	1
2	2	Taylor Swift	Blank Space	667,240	7	14	1
3	3	Hozier	Take Me To Church	556,010	5	14	2
4	4	Ed Sheeran	Thinking Out Loud	523,220	2	14	2
5	5	Meghan Trainor	Lips Are Movin	401,510	10	14	4
6	6	Sam Smith	I'm Not The Only One	389,250	12	14	5
7	7	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	371,050	15	14	4
8	8	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	357,590	19	14	2
9	9	Nick Jonas	Jealous	328,460	18	14	7
10	10	Maroon 5	Animals	304,120	37	14	4
11	11	Ariana Grande & The Weeknd	Love Me Harder	302,610	33	14	7
12	12	Big Sean ft. E-40	I Don't Fuck With You	274,620	24	14	11
13	13	Selena Gomez	The Heart Wants What It Wants	258,980	44	14	6
14	14	Fall Out Boy	Centuries	255,150	14	14	10
16	15	Nicki Minaj ft. Drake, Lil Wayne, Chris Brown	Only	237,060	16	14	12
15	16	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	233,310	50	14	6
18	17	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	222,250	20	14	11
17	18	I LOVE MAKONNEN ft. Drake	Tuesday	219,670	49	14	13
19	19	Rae Sremmurd	No Type	216,380	38	14	16
20	20	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	214,980	40	14	12
22	21	Beyonce	7/11	208,300	25	13	13
21	22	James Newton Howard ft. Jennifer Lawrence	The Hanging Tree	203,440	77	13	12
27	23	Maroon 5	Sugar	195,270	4	6	4
25	24	Usher ft. Juicy J	I Don't Mind	193,840	13	14	13
23	25	Ed Sheeran	Don't	192,170	-	13	10
24	26	Mr. Probz	Waves	184,440	-	12	14
26	27	O.T. Genasis	CoCo	178,140	36	14	20
28	28	Vance Joy	Riptide	158,000	31	14	30
29	29	Sia	Chandelier	156,200	30	14	20
30	30	Ella Henderson	Ghost	153,470	21	14	21
33	31	Pitbull ft. Ne-yo	Time Of Our Lives	149,970	11	11	11
41	32	Ellie Goulding	Love Me Like You Do	144,030	3	7	3
31	33	Bobby Shmurda	Hot Boy	134,800	-	9	15
32	34	Calvin Harris ft. John Newmann	Blame	132,020	-	10	21
35	35	One Direction	Night Changes	128,980	55	14	31
34	36	Jeremih ft. YG	Don't Tell 'Em	123,440	-	10	22
36	37	Alesso ft. Tove Lo	Heroes (We Could Be)	120,990	-	13	31
51	38	Rihanna & Kanye West & Paul McCartney	FourFiveSeconds	120,490	6	5	4
37	39	Iggy Azalea ft. Rita Ora	Black Widow	119,610	-	10	23
38	40	Iggy Azalea ft. M0	Beg For It	118,340	-	12	27
50	41	Taylor Swift	Style	117,300	8	10	8
47	42	Ne-yo ft. Juicy J	She Knows	111,100	22	13	22
39	43	Carrie Underwood	Something In The Water	110,800	-	13	37
40	44	MAGIC!	Rude	110,020	-	11	27
48	45	Flo Rida ft. Sage The Gemini, Lookas	G.D.F.R.	108,500	29	13	28
46	46	Florida Georgia Line	Sun Daze	105,700	56	14	44
43	47	Dej Loaf	Try Me	105,220	90	14	45
53	48	Lillywood & Robin Schulz	Prayer In C	104,090	23	12	23
58	49	Weeknd	Earned It (Fifty Shades Of Grey)	103,660	9	9	9
45	50	Eric Church	Talladega	103,310	80	14	43
42	51	Tim McGraw	Shotgun Rider	101,350	-	13	38
55	52	Imagine Dragons	I Bet My Life	101,150	28	14	28
49	53	OneRepublic	I Lived	98,910	63	13	32
44	54	Fergie	L.A.LOVE (la la)	98,890	-	12	27
52	55	Luke Bryan	I See You	98,130	53	13	41
54	56	Jason Derulo	Trumpets	89,330	-	7	17
59	57	Thomas Rhett	Make Me Wanna	86,520	45	14	43
56	58	Fifth Harmony	Sledgehammer	86,000	87	13	40
61	59	Blake Shelton ft. Ashley Monroe	Lonely Tonight	85,430	47	12	47
60	60	Lee Brice	Drinking Class	83,800	67	14	60
65	61	Sia	Elastic Heart	81,570	41	7	17
62	62	The Weeknd	Often	80,130	69	14	59
57	63	Clean Bandit ft. Jess Glynne	Rather Be	79,910	-	8	28
63	64	One Direction	Steal My Girl	73,080	-	11	29
64	65	Rich Gang ft. Young Thug, Rich Homie Quan	Lifestyle	73,040	-	7	27
70	66	Nicki Minaj ft. Beyonce	Feeling Myself	72,760	62	10	43
73	67	Walk The Moon	Shut Up + Dance	72,680	48	13	48
71	68	Brett Eldredge	Mean To Me	72,310	57	14	57
72	69	Jason Aldean	Just Getting' Started	71,700	60	12	59
66	70	Brad Paisley	Perfect Storm	71,650	-	11	52
67	71	Milky Chance	Stolen Dance	70,740	-	8	39
68	72	Trey Songz ft. Nicki Minaj	Touchin, Lovin	70,530	-	9	44
69	73	DJ Khaled ft. Chris Brown, August Alsina, Future, Jeremih	Hold You Down	70,220	-	9	39
74	74	RaeLynn	God Made Girls	62,800	-	12	61
83	75	Chris Brown & Tyga	Ayo	62,750	32	7	32
89	76	Nicki Minaj ft. Drake, Lil Wayne	Truffle Butter	62,180	17	5	17
75	77	David Guetta ft. Sam Martin	Dangerous	61,450	-	11	56
78	78	Prince Royce ft. Snoop Dogg	Stuck On A Feeling	60,930	75	9	43
76	79	Kenny Chesney	Til It's Gone	60,450	-	11	60
79	80	Randy Houser	Like A Cowboy	59,580	64	12	62
84	81	Sam Hunt	Take Your Time	59,370	39	8	36
85	82	Calvin Harris ft. Ellie Goulding	Outside	58,460	43	8	42
77	83	Nicki Minaj	Anaconda	57,330	-	7	48
86	84	J.Cole	Apparently	54,750	61	10	58
88	85	Chris Young	Lonely Eyes	52,550	71	10	70
80	86	Kid Ink ft. Usher, Tinashe	Body Language	52,510	-	12	72
81	87	Beyonce ft. Nicki Minaj, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie	***Flawless	52,470	-	11	41
92	88	Kelly Clarkson	Heartbeat Song	51,710	46	6	34
82	89	Pentatonix	Mary, Did You Know?	51,470	-	6	26
90	90	Darius Rucker	Homegrown Honey	50,610	73	11	73
91	91	Kanye West ft. Paul McCartney	Only One	49,910	74	7	35
87	92	Keith Urban	Somewhere In My Car	47,600	-	8	51
101	93	Cole Swindell	Ain't Worth The Whiskey	41,600	59	8	59
93	94	August Alsina	No Love	41,190	-	9	69
94	95	Echosmith	Cool Kids	40,260	-	4	30
95	96	Parmalee	Close Your Eyes	40,200	-	8	69
99	97	Sheppard	Geronimo	39,910	76	9	74
96	98	Lorde	Yellow Flicker Beat	39,510	-	7	34
116	99	Natalie La Rose ft. Jeremih	Somebody	39,450	27	5	27
103	100	Rae Sremmurd ft. Nicki Minaj, Young Thug	Throw Sum Mo	38,950	78	8	67

[Daniel Collins]

Feb 2, 2015 21:46:53 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Very nice effort this.... and the virtual coincidence of the predicted Top-50 for year-end 2014 with the actual means that the accuracy levels are sufficiently high.

I have always wondered about the *real* relative rankings of songs as Billboard year-end charts have cutoff dates, and often a song's chart run gets split. For example, I have noticed many times that a song with, say, rank 75 actually had better run than the song with rank 50, but because some weeks of its run were counted in another year, it was ranked lower.

I wonder if with your database, it is possible to add all the accumulated chart points and then compare the songs.If you could add a column of total chart points for the entire run in your final predictions chart in page 13, then it would be great.

Anyway, keep up the good work.

Great idea. I could do that. I'll just let this year finish and I'll post a 2013-2015 total.

[rimetm]

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yn0qT2h1zJ1aa9GEDWeZvuNqiw-cL9KOhwgFTMeVTI0/edit?usp=sharing

I'm currently trying to discern the formula myself. I'll update this post if I come up with one I'm confident in.

UPDATE: OK, I feel *really* close with my formula, but I have one problem: Earned It. Everytime I manage to get TOL and UF in the right ranges, Earned It keeps ending up over Style. Is my data for the previous week noticeably incorrect? (it was interpolated from the gains percentages listed in the article)

[jarhys]

LY	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
12	1	Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars	Uptown Funk!	766,180	1	14	1
17	2	Taylor Swift	Blank Space	667,240	7	14	1
22	3	Hozier	Take Me To Church	556,010	5	14	2
25	4	Ed Sheeran	Thinking Out Loud	523,220	2	14	2
40	5	Meghan Trainor	Lips Are Movin	401,510	10	14	4
44	6	Sam Smith	I'm Not The Only One	389,250	12	14	5
46	7	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	371,050	15	14	4
47	8	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	357,590	19	14	2
49	9	Nick Jonas	Jealous	328,460	18	14	7
51	10	Maroon 5	Animals	304,120	37	14	4
52	11	Ariana Grande & The Weeknd	Love Me Harder	302,610	33	14	7
58	12	Big Sean ft. E-40	I Don't f**k With You	274,620	24	14	11
63	13	Selena Gomez	The Heart Wants What It Wants	258,980	44	14	6
67	14	Fall Out Boy	Centuries	255,150	14	14	10
72	15	Nicki Minaj ft. Drake, Lil Wayne, Chris Brown	Only	237,060	16	14	12
72	16	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	233,310	50	14	6
74	17	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	222,250	20	14	11
74	18	I LOVE MAKONNEN ft. Drake	Tuesday	219,670	49	14	13
75	19	Rae Sremmurd	No Type	216,380	38	14	16
75	20	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	214,980	40	14	12
77	21	Beyonce	7/11	208,300	25	13	13
77	22	James Newton Howard ft. Jennifer Lawrence	The Hanging Tree	203,440	77	13	12
83	23	Maroon 5	Sugar	195,270	4	6	4
84	24	Usher ft. Juicy J	I Don't Mind	193,840	13	14	13
84	25	Ed Sheeran	Don't	192,170	-	13	10
96	26	Mr. Probz	Waves	184,440	-	12	14
101	27	O.T. Genasis	CoCo	178,140	36	14	20
119	28	Vance Joy	Riptide	158,000	31	14	30
121	29	Sia	Chandelier	156,200	30	14	20
123	30	Ella Henderson	Ghost	153,470	21	14	21
126	31	Pitbull ft. Ne-yo	Time Of Our Lives	149,970	11	11	11
131	32	Ellie Goulding	Love Me Like You Do	144,030	3	7	3
152	35	One Direction	Night Changes	128,980	55	14	31
165	38	Rihanna & Kanye West & Paul McCartney	FourFiveSeconds	120,490	6	5	4
169	41	Taylor Swift	Style	117,300	8	10	8
177	42	Ne-yo ft. Juicy J	She Knows	111,100	22	13	22
180	45	Flo Rida ft. Sage The Gemini, Lookas	G.D.F.R.	108,500	29	13	28
186	46	Florida Georgia Line	Sun Daze	105,700	56	14	44
187	47	Dej Loaf	Try Me	105,220	90	14	45
187	48	Lillywood & Robin Schulz	Prayer In C	104,090	23	12	23
188	49	Weeknd	Earned It (Fifty Shades Of Grey)	103,660	9	9	9
188	50	Eric Church	Talladega	103,310	80	14	43
189	52	Imagine Dragons	I Bet My Life	101,150	28	14	28
190	53	OneRepublic	I Lived	98,910	63	13	32
191	55	Luke Bryan	I See You	98,130	53	13	41