Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2017 21:01:57 GMT -5
At this rate, will LWYMMD even be very high on this year's list? I can see it leaving the top 10 entirely in 2 weeks.
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CF15
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Post by CF15 on Oct 20, 2017 10:34:55 GMT -5
At this rate, will LWYMMD even be very high on this year's list? I can see it leaving the top 10 entirely in 2 weeks. It probably won't be that high. I can see it making the top 25, but probably not the top 20. It got a very large number of points in its first week or two, but not too many thereafter, since streaming and sales died pretty quickly for that song. |
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listmist
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Post by listmist on Oct 20, 2017 17:30:30 GMT -5
How many points does Butterfly Effect have? I feel like it will be the No Problem for 2017
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bobbybob
Charting
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Post by bobbybob on Oct 20, 2017 20:37:42 GMT -5
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2017 20:49:00 GMT -5
Yes that means that crew and do re mi could make it!
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bobbybob
Charting
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Posts: 42
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Post by bobbybob on Oct 20, 2017 21:03:03 GMT -5
"Crew" would need about 7k per week, "do re mi" needs 1 or 2 weeks past the first 20. Both seem just stable enough to do it
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Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ
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Post by Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ on Oct 20, 2017 21:05:00 GMT -5
I want Cheap Thrills at #100. It would be great to see two similar songs (which I adore) at the beginning and at the end of the list.
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rainie
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Post by rainie on Oct 20, 2017 22:04:36 GMT -5
Wow @ Crew and Do Re Mi making it -- neither fees like they've had that strong of a chart run, but I guess Crew has had the longevity inside the top 50 and Do Re Mi may have the overall longevity.
Kind of hoping Malibu sneaks on there somehow though, and I'd love to see Party Monstsr make it as well though that's more or less out of the question.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2017 23:20:23 GMT -5
I want Cheap Thrills at #100. It would be great to see two similar songs (which I adore) at the beginning and at the end of the list. Sounds interesting. I originally wanted Cheap Thrills to sneak in to be this year's SYA, but this sounds pretty cool too |
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
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My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 21, 2017 7:00:51 GMT -5
This is my approximation of what the final YE prediction here will look like. - XO TOUR LILIF3 higher than 24K Magic? No. - So Look What You Made Me Do would be the Hotline Bling of 2017 in terms of YE? - I wish Feel It Still passes Fake Love and ends up next to I Feel It Coming. I FEEL IT Still Coming :) - I would like to have Praying at #65 that Swang. Or Too Good At Goodbyes. - If this became the YE, neither Havana nor New Rules gets to the YE. Nooooo :'( |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2017 8:09:48 GMT -5
Interesting how this year could finish with 2 songs with a peak below #5 ending up in the top 10, 3 songs with a peak below #10 in the top 25 and 10 songs with a peak below #30 and 3 below #40 in the top 100. As bluepotato said, peaks don't mean anything this year |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2017 8:14:56 GMT -5
Interesting how this year could finish with 2 songs with a peak below #5 ending up in the top 10, 3 songs with a peak below #10 in the top 25 and 10 songs with a peak below #30 and 3 below #40 in the top 100. As bluepotato said, peaks don't mean anything this year Hasn't it been like that in 2015? That was when streaming started to become prominent. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2017 8:21:51 GMT -5
Interesting how this year could finish with 2 songs with a peak below #5 ending up in the top 10, 3 songs with a peak below #10 in the top 25 and 10 songs with a peak below #30 and 3 below #40 in the top 100. As bluepotato said, peaks don't mean anything this year Hasn't it been like that in 2015? That was when streaming started to become prominent. it does have alot of low-peaking songs, but this year seems to be more deep |
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Oct 21, 2017 16:07:49 GMT -5
Unfortunately I don't think What Ifs can beat Cold at this point because it would need over 14000 per week which would be a bit of a stretch. That would be great though. Also I feel like there's some error in that there have been 4 people doing the predictions so far and the formulas have all been different because Small Town Boy really shouldn't be ahead of Magnolia, it had less time in both the top 40 and the top 50 and Magnolia had 5 weeks in the top 30, I have no idea how this year is going to turn out honestly but I think there's a little too much weight being given to really recently charting hits because YDB > DLMD, Small Town Boy > Magnolia, and No Promises > Drowning don't seem right. I don't think the recent months have been particularly strong for songs around 30-40 or anything
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
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Post by fhas on Oct 22, 2017 10:40:07 GMT -5
LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - October 28th 2017
Formula: sales/7.2 + airplay/8400 + on-demand streams/1500 + YouTube streams/1500 + programmed streams/3000 | # | Song | Points | Sales | Airplay | On-Demand | YouTube | Programmed | Total Streams | +/- (%) | | 1 | rockstar | 42,300 | 48.0k | 35.0m | 33.0m | 10.0m | 8.2m | 51.3m | +6.7 | | 2 | Bodak Yellow | 42,200 | 40.0k | 75.0m | 15.1m | 21.8m | 9.1m | 46.1m | -3.6 | | 3 | 1-800-273-8255 | 32,200 | 31.6k | 76.0m | 13.4m | 11.4m | 6.2m | 31.2m | -1.4 | | 4 | Look What You Made Me Do | 29,200 | 32.3k | 91.8m | 7.5m | 11.5m | 3.0m | 22.1m | -3.4 | | 5 | Feel It Still | 26,600 | 42.0k | 110.0m | 6.7m | 2.2m | 5.1m | 14.1m | +2.7 | | 6 | Mi Gente | 25,800 | 26.0k | 55.0m | 10.7m | 8.3m | 8.5m | 27.7m | -23.2 | | 7 | Too Good At Goodbyes | 25,000 | 39.0k | 59.0m | 9.6m | 7.5m | 3.4m | 20.6m | +9.9 | | 8 | Thunder | 24,300 | 62.5k | 59.0m | 6.5m | 4.2m | 4.1m | 14.9m | -2.4 | | 9 | Sorry Not Sorry | 23,400 | 32.6k | 69.8m | 8.7m | 5.2m | 3.7m | 17.7m | -3.7 | | 10 | Unforgettable | 22,900 | 14.6k | 82.1m | 8.7m | 6.1m | 3.4m | 18.4m | -4.7 |
Sources: Hot 100's article Billboard Chart Beat HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand) HDD's Revenue Chart Kworb's Overall AI YouTube Insights Pandora Top Spins Chart @chartdata (Twitter)
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GPMB
Gold Member
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Posts: 618
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Post by GPMB on Oct 22, 2017 11:48:47 GMT -5
this is gonna be the weirdest YE
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Post by boysilver400 on Oct 22, 2017 11:51:31 GMT -5
So Crew and do re mi will actually make it?
Goosebumps will be that high?
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GPMB
Gold Member
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Post by GPMB on Oct 22, 2017 11:56:08 GMT -5
So Crew and do re mi will actually make it? Goosebumps will be that high? I wholeheartedly believe Goosebumps will be inside the top 70, but I'm not sure about Crew and Do Re Mi I'd rather Malibu and Look at Me! make it because despite how much I love Crew, I can't stand Do Re Mi. Also Malibu just feels like the perfect "year-end number 100" song, and it would just feel wrong for Look at Me! to not make it considering how important it was in the overall musical landscape in 2017. |
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Oct 22, 2017 13:40:32 GMT -5
Do Re Mi just makes me laugh honestly. At first I really couldn't stand it but now I actually just think it's funny
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rainie
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the future disappears into memory
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Post by rainie on Oct 22, 2017 16:08:51 GMT -5
Do Re Mi and Crew seem like their chart runs are way too weak to make it. I mean I know there's a few more weeks left, but a 41 peak that barely spent any time in the top 50 and a 46(?) peak with only 18 weeks really don't seem like songs that would sneak onto the year end list (especially the latter).
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Oct 22, 2017 16:24:15 GMT -5
Do Re Mi might make it, if it stays in the top 50 for the rest of the time that's 11 weeks which is more than Wicked and also 22 weeks total.
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Harx
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Post by Harx on Oct 23, 2017 13:45:02 GMT -5
Do Re Mi went from 45 to 40 this week. Looks like it's gonna make it
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 13:48:20 GMT -5
Do Re Mi went from 45 to 40 this week. Looks like it's gonna make it Do you know about Crew? |
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Harx
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Post by Harx on Oct 23, 2017 13:58:47 GMT -5
Do Re Mi went from 45 to 40 this week. Looks like it's gonna make it Do you know about Crew? No, I know about Do Re Mi from the Billboard article (they mentioned it bc it hit top 40) |
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willnower
Bubbling Under
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Post by willnower on Oct 23, 2017 15:53:15 GMT -5
"Look What You Made Me Do" by Taylor Swift dropped from no. 5 to no. 20 on the Radio Songs chart from Billboard. Wow, just wow.
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scrohr424
Gold Member
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Post by scrohr424 on Oct 23, 2017 17:04:37 GMT -5
They're already talking about it in the thread for that song, but goodness. Those drops in airplay were brutal. I wouldn't be surprised if it falls out after 20 weeks. MAYBE not if the year-end radio push is nice to it.
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crazyb
5x Platinum Member
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Post by crazyb on Oct 23, 2017 20:03:35 GMT -5
Look What You Made Me do is suppose to leave the top 20 next week, Going to be really interesting to see where it ends up on the year end. Is there a possibility that it might not make it next year?
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bobbybob
Charting
Joined: September 2015
Posts: 42
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Post by bobbybob on Oct 23, 2017 20:16:43 GMT -5
Well, "Butterfly Effect" is confirmed to have a 21st week on the charts, and looks to be continuing to gain airplay. How many points does it have rn? Does it have a shot?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 20:17:37 GMT -5
Well, "Butterfly Effect" is confirmed to have a 21st week on the charts, and looks to be continuing to gain airplay. How many points does it have rn? Does it have a shot? Hopefully not. The last thing we need on the Year End Charts is more crappy rap songs. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 20:37:25 GMT -5
Well, "Butterfly Effect" is confirmed to have a 21st week on the charts, and looks to be continuing to gain airplay. How many points does it have rn? Does it have a shot? it have about 140,000 points. I wouldn't be surprised if it makes it |
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