Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[MilesW1998]

Oct 23, 2017 20:17:37 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

Oct 23, 2017 20:16:43 GMT -5 bobbybob said:

Well, "Butterfly Effect" is confirmed to have a 21st week on the charts, and looks to be continuing to gain airplay. How many points does it have rn? Does it have a shot?

Hopefully not. The last thing we need on the Year End Charts is more crappy rap songs.

Kind of ironic, considering you yourself have defended a handful of crappy rap songs though.

[scrohr424]

Oct 23, 2017 20:58:44 GMT -5 MilesW1998 said:

Oct 23, 2017 20:17:37 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

Hopefully not. The last thing we need on the Year End Charts is more crappy rap songs.

Kind of ironic, considering you yourself have defended a handful of crappy rap songs though.

*cough CHILL BILL cough* I was going to mention that myself, but I'm not good at picking on that stuff.

That being said, there's ANOTHER song I totally forgot the existence of until it was brought up here.

I also notice that some are predicting Havana to make Top 10 next week. Something tells me that in the end it'll be one that would have made it with one more week. Or maybe it will scrape in after all.

[Deleted]

Oct 23, 2017 20:58:44 GMT -5 MilesW1998 said:

Oct 23, 2017 20:17:37 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

Hopefully not. The last thing we need on the Year End Charts is more crappy rap songs.

Kind of ironic, considering you yourself have defended a handful of crappy rap songs though.

It's not like some "crappy" rap songs are crappy to everyone

I mean, you can't really make the content of rap songs fun or interesting to hear yet conscious about real life. Rap music never had a starting point that made it pleasing or atrocious to everyone, neither did everything else in life, so let the opinions on opinions aside. I'm assuming you don't like the entirety of trap music though

back on topic is sam smith an album seller? that way we can know where tgag will possibly be

[willapted33]

I will be so happy if butterfly effect makes it

[willapted33]

Oct 23, 2017 20:17:37 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

Oct 23, 2017 20:16:43 GMT -5 bobbybob said:

Well, "Butterfly Effect" is confirmed to have a 21st week on the charts, and looks to be continuing to gain airplay. How many points does it have rn? Does it have a shot?

Hopefully not. The last thing we need on the Year End Charts is more crappy rap songs.

It's twice as good as Crew and Do Re Mi though

[mako]

If I were to rank them,
1. Do Re Mi
2. Butterfly Effect
3. Crew
I'm not saying that crew is bad, its just butterfly effect is better than crew.

[Harx]

I remember that there was a lot of rotation on Hot 100 this year, mostly during spring, so it feels weird that so many low peaking songs are going to make it.

[atg]

Oct 24, 2017 9:08:31 GMT -5 Harx said:

I remember that there was a lot of rotation on Hot 100 this year, mostly during spring, so it feels weird that so many low peaking songs are going to make it.

At least it was better compared to last year. Most songs would take forever to drop out

[rainie]

Kind of funny how similar the chart runs for Goosebumps and Butterfly Effect have had so far, though the latter has dropped out less times. Now BE just needs to make the top 40 in its 25ish week.

[propanda]

Oct 24, 2017 4:01:30 GMT -5 willapted33 said:

Oct 23, 2017 20:17:37 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

Hopefully not. The last thing we need on the Year End Charts is more crappy rap songs.

It's twice as good as Crew and Do Re Mi though

Honestly twice as good as both of those songs combined.

[Deleted]

Year-End Hot 100 2017 Predictions - Week 49, dated 11/04/2017
(So we're already in the last month of the chart year and i'm really excited to see how this crazy YE is going to end up. Also, i honestly forgot that "Butterfly Effect" existed until u guys brought it up here as a possibility, and it really have high chances of making it. I heard that song for the first time this week and it's really good, better than Do Re Mi and Crew imo, so i hope it makes it)
Highlights:

SPOILER: Click to show

- "HUMBLE." passes "Bad And Boujee" and should be the rap song of the year
- Last week for "Say You Won't Let Go" in the Hot 100 and it ended up in a good position, unfortunately it couldn't pass "I'm The One". What u guys think about those 2 songs?
- "XO Tour Llif3" reaches the top 15 and should pass "24K Magic" as "Unforgettable" did
- "Feel It Stil" reaches the top 50, the 2nd rock/alternative song to do so this year
- "Rockstar" and "Young, Dumb & Broke" both passes Look At Me and should be locks, increasing the number of R&B songs in the YE to 8 and Rap to 34 (damn thats a lot)
- "What About Us" reaches the top 100 and should be safe at the YE
- RIP "Party"

<sub>Legend:
* = means that the stat is for the weeks that count to the 2017 Year-End, (Dec. 3, 2016 - Nov. 25, 2017) but the song's chart run is cut between years, so it's peak or chart weeks is different from that.
Red = Currently #1 on the Hot 100
Blue = Currently in the Top 10
Green = Currently in the Top 20
Bold = Currently in the Hot 100</sub>


1. "Shape Of You" - 1,437,570
Peak: #1 (Jan. 28. Feb. 18 - Apr. 29)
33 weeks in Top 10 (Jan. 28 - Sep. 9)
41 weeks in Hot 100

2. "Despacito" - 1,406,880
Peak: #1 (May 27 - Sep. 9)
25 weeks in Top 10 (May 6 - Oct. 21)
40 weeks in Hot 100

3. "That's What I Like" - 1,147,810
Peak: #1 (May 13)
28 weeks in Top 10 (Mar. 4 - Sep. 9)
40 weeks in Hot 100

4. "Humble." - 752,120
Peak: #1 (May 6)
15 weeks in Top 10 (Apr. 22 - Jul. 29)
29 weeks in Hot 100

5. "Bad And Boujee" - 745,010
Peak: #1 (Jan. 21. Feb. 4 - 11)
14 weeks in Top 10 (Jan. 14 - Apr. 15)
36 weeks in Hot 100

6. "Closer" - 727,690
Peak: #2 (Dec. 3 - 10)*
17 weeks in Top 10 (Dec. 3 - Mar. 25)*
37 weeks in Hot 100*

7. "Body Like A Back Road" - 708,840
Peak: #6 (Apr. 22)
8 wks in Top 10 (Apr. 22 - 29. Jul. 22 - Aug. 19. Sep. 2)
38 weeks in Hot 100

8. "Believer" - 704,490
Peak: #4 (Aug. 26. Sep. 9)
14 weeks in Top 10 (Jul. 15 - Oct. 14)
37 weeks in Hot 100

9. "Something Just Like This" - 697,460
Peak: #3 (Apr. 15)
17 wks in Top 10 (Mar. 18. Apr. 1 - Jul. 15)
35 weeks in Hot 100

10. "Congratulations" - 670,780
Peak: #8 (Jul. 8 - 15)
6 weeks in Top 10 (Jun. 17 - Jul. 22)
42 weeks in Hot 100

11. "I'm The One" - 648,710
Peak: #1 (May 20)
15 weeks in Top 10 (May 20 - Aug. 26)
22 weeks in Hot 100

12. "Say You Won't Let Go" - 641,170
Peak: #11 (Jun. 3 & 24)
16 weeks in Top 20 (Apr. 15 - Jul. 22. Aug. 5)
49 weeks in Hot 100*

13. "Unforgettable" - 598,270
Peak: #3 (Aug. 19 - 26)
16 weeks in Top 10 (July 22 - Nov. 4)
28 weeks in Hot 100

14. "24K Magic" - 597,710
Peak: #4 (Dec. 10 & 24 - Jan. 7)
10 weeks in Top 10 (Dec. 3 - Feb. 4)*
36 weeks in Hot 100*

15. "XO Tour Llif3" - 573,290
Peak: #7 (Jun. 24)
10 weeks in Top 10 (Apr. 29 - Jul. 1)
30 weeks in Hot 100

16. "Mask Off" - 567,980
Peak: #5 (May 6 - 13)
12 weeks in Top 10 (Apr. 29 - Jul. 15)
31 weeks in Hot 100

17. "Black Beatles - 556,710
Peak: #1 (Dec. 3 - 31. Jan. 14)*
12 weeks in Top 10 (Dec. 3 - Feb. 18)*
18 weeks in Hot 100*

18. "Wild Thoughts" - 553,070
Peak: #2 (Jul. 29 - Sep. 9)
13 weeks in Top 10 (Jul. 8 - Sep. 30)
18 weeks in Hot 100

19. "Stay" - 551,420
Peak: #7 (May 6. Jun. 10 - 17)
8 weeks in Top 10 (May 6. May 27 - Jul. 8)
31 weeks in Hot 100

20. "Starboy" - 536,480
Peak: #1 (Jan. 7)
12 weeks in Top 10 (Dec. 3 - Feb. 18)*
22 weeks in Hot 100*

21. "There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back"- 525,970
Peak: #6 (Aug. 26)
10 weeks in Top 10 (Jul. 29 - Sep. 30)
26 weeks in Hot 100

22. "Bodak Yellow" - 514,340
Peak: #1 (Oct. 7 - 21)
11 weeks in Top 10 (Aug. 26 - Nov. 4)
16 weeks in Hot 100

23. "Redbone" - 508,340
Peak: #12 (Aug. 19)
13 weeks in Top 20 (Jun. 17 - Sep. 9)
44 weeks in Hot 100

24. "Location" - 492,340
Peak: #16 (May 13)
5 weeks in Top 20 (Apr. 29. May 13 - Jun. 3)
41 weeks in Hot 100

25. "Attention" - 489,960
Peak: #5 (Aug. 26. Sep. 9 - 16)
10 weeks in Top 10 (Aug. 5 - Oct. 7)
26 weeks in Hot 100

26. "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" - 483,900
Peak: #2 (Mar. 4)
12 weeks in Top 10 (Dec. 31. Feb. 4 - Apr. 15)
23 weeks in Hot 100

27. "iSpy" - 471,570
Peak: #4 (Apr. 22)
8 weeks in Top 10 (Apr. 1 & 15 - May 27)
30 weeks in Hot 100

28. "It Ain't Me" - 461,810
Peak: #10 (May 13 - 20. Jun. 10)
3 weeks in Top 10 (May 13 - 20. Jun. 10)
29 weeks in Hot 100

29. "Scars To Your Beautiful" - 445,480
Peak: #8 (Feb. 25)
3 weeks in Top 10 (Feb. 11 - 25)
32 weeks in Hot 100*

30. "Issues" - 433,510
Peak: #11 (Jun. 10 - 17)
14 weeks in Top 20 (Apr. 29 - Jul. 29)
29 weeks in Hot 100

31. "Love On The Brain" - 396,270
Peak: #5 (Mar. 25)
5 weeks in Top 10 (Mar. 4 - Apr. 1)
28 weeks in Hot 100*

32. "I Feel It Coming" - 392,700
Peak: #4 (Apr. 15)
5 weeks (Mar. 4. Apr. 1 - Apr. 22)
26 weeks in Hot 100

33. "Slow Hands" - 390,580
Peak: #11 (Sep. 30 - Oct. 7)
13 weeks in Top 20 (Jul. 29 - Oct. 21)
25 weeks in Hot 100

34. "1-800-273-8255" - 389,180
Peak: #3 (Sep. 30. Oct. 28 - Nov. 4)
8 weeks in Top 10 (Sep. 16 - Nov. 4)
25 weeks in Hot 100

35. "Fake Love" - 384,370
Peak: #8 (Feb. 18)
5 weeks in Top 10 (Jan. 7 - 21. Feb. 11 - 18)*
22 weeks in Hot 100*

36. "Don't Wanna Know" - 381,430
Peak: #6 (Feb. 18)
12 weeks in Top 10 (Dec. 3 - Jan. 7. Jan. 21 - Feb. 25)*
22 weeks in Hot 100*

37. "Bounce Back" - 373,660
Peak: #6 (Feb. 25)
5 weeks in Top 10 (Feb. 25 - Mar. 25)
28 weeks in Hot 100

38. "Strip That Down" - 373,680
Peak: #10 (Sep. 16)
1 week in Top 10 (Sep. 16)
22 weeks in Hot 100

39. "Bad Things" - 364,280
Peak: #4 (Feb. 11 - 18)
10 weeks in Top 10 (Dec. 24. Jan. 7 & 21 - Mar. 11)
22 weeks in Hot 100*

40. "Look What You Made Me Do" - 363,800
Peak: #1 (Sep. 16 - 30)
8 weeks in Top 10 (Sep. 16 - Nov. 4)
9 weeks in Hot 100

41. "Castle On The Hill" - 351,150
Peak: #6 (Jan. 28)
1 week in Top 10 (Jan. 28)
33 weeks in Hot 100

42. "Side To Side" - 339,430
Peak: #4 (Dec. 3 & 17)
9 weeks in Top 10 (Dec. 3 - Jan. 28)*
17 weeks in Hot 100*

43. "Paris" - 337,050
Peak: #6 (Mar. 11)
10 weeks in Top 10 (Feb. 4 & 25. Mar. 11 - Apr. 29)
20 weeks in Hot 100

44. "Rockabye" - 330,190
Peak: #9 (Mar. 25)
2 weeks in Top 10 (Mar 25. Apr. 22)
27 weeks in Hot 100

45. "Let Me Love You" - 316,960
Peak: #7 (Dec. 3 & 17. Jan. 7)*
8 weeks in Top 10 (Dec. 3 - Jan. 21)*
19 weeks in Hot 100*

46. "Can't Stop The Feeling!" - 310,730
Peak: #13 (Mar. 18)*
4 weeks in Top 20 (Dec. 3 - 10. Jan. 21. Mar. 18)*
25 weeks in Hot 100*

47. "Tunnel Vision" - 301,210
Peak: #6 (Mar. 25 - Apr. 8)
6 weeks in Top 10 (Mar. 18 - Apr. 22)
20 weeks in Hot 100

48. "Feel It Still" - 296,280
Peak: #4 (Nov. 4)
5 weeks in Top 10 (Oct. 7 - Nov. 4)
18 weeks in Hot 100

49. "Mercy" - 291,620
Peak: #15 (Mar. 25)
8 weeks in Top 20 (Jan. 14 - 21. Feb. 25 - Apr. 1)
25 weeks in Hot 100*

50. "T-Shirt" - 288,960
Peak: #19 (Feb. 18)
1 week in Top 20 (Feb. 18)
25 weeks in Hot 100

51. "Bank Account" - 285,380
Peak: #12 (Aug. 26 - Sep. 23)
12 weeks in Top 20 (Aug. 19 - Nov. 4)
15 weeks in Hot 100

52. "Rake It Up" - 282,260
Peak: #8 (Oct. 7)
3 weeks in Top 10 (Sep. 9. Oct. 7 - 14)
16 weeks in Hot 100

53. "Caroline" - 280,420
Peak: #11 (Jan. 7)
13 weeks in Top 20 (Dec. 3 - Feb. 25)*
18 weeks in Hot 100*

54. "Heathens" - 278,670
Peak: #5 (Dec. 3)*
4 weeks in Top 10 (Dec. 3 - 24)*
18 weeks in Hot 100*

55. "Juju On That Beat (TZ Anthem)" - 271,250
Peak: #5 (Dec. 10. Jan. 7)
7 weeks in Top 10 (Dec. 3 - Jan. 14)*
15 weeks in Hot 100*

56. "In Case You Didn't Know" - 262,570
Peak: #19 (Jun. 10 - 17)
3 weeks in Top 20 (Jun. 10 - 24)
28 weeks in Hot 100

57. "Sorry Not Sorry" - 259,740
Peak: #7 (Nov. 4)
4 weeks in Top 10 (Oct. 14 - Nov. 4)
15 weeks in Hot 100

58. "Now Or Never" - 256,330
Peak: #17 (Jul. 29 - Aug. 5)
6 weeks in Top 20 (Jul. 1 & 15 - Aug. 12)
20 weeks in Hot 100

59. "Rolex" - 255,300
Peak: #20 (Jun. 17)
1 week in Top 20 (Jun. 17)
25 weeks in Hot 100

60. "DNA." - 254,280
Peak: #4 (May 6)
2 weeks in Top 10 (May 6 - 13)
20 weeks in Hot 100

61. "Thunder" - 251,500
Peak: #5 (Nov. 4)
3 weeks in Top 10 (Oct. 21 - Nov. 4)
25 weeks in Hot 100

62. "Mi Gente" - 250,360
Peak: #3 (Oct. 21)
3 weeks in Top 10 (Oct. 21 - Nov. 4)
16 weeks in Hot 100

63. "Swang" - 240,030
Peak: #26 (May 13)
5 weeks in Top 30 (Apr. 22 - 29. May 13 - 27)
26 weeks in Hot 100

64. "Passionfruit" - 234,680
Peak: #8 (Apr. 8)
2 weeks in Top 10 (Apr. 8 - 15)
20 weeks in Hot 100

65. "Goosebumps" - 233,800
Peak: #32 (May 20)
8 weeks in Top 40 (May 20 - Jul. 8)
29 weeks in Hot 100*

66. "Broccoli" - 233,520
Peak: #9 (Dec. 3 - 10)*
4 weeks in Top 10 (Dec. 3 - 17. Jan. 14)*
15 weeks in Hot 100*

67. "Loyalty." - 228,030
Peak: #14 (May 6)
1 week in Top 20 (May 6)
26 weeks in Hot 100

68. "Cold" - 226,380
Peak: #16 (Apr. 1)
1 week in Top 20 (Apr. 1)
20 weeks in Hot 100

69. "All Time Low" - 208,390
Peak: #16 (Jan. 14)
3 weeks in Top 20 (Jan. 14. Feb. 11 - 18)
17 weeks in Hot 100*

70. "Slide" - 208,110
Peak: #25 (Jun. 3)
6 weeks in Top 30 (May 13 - Jun. 17)
20 weeks in Hot 100

71. "Starving" - 204,680
Peak: #12 (Dec. 17)
8 weeks in Top 20 (Dec. 3 - Jan. 21)*
14 weeks in Hot 100*

72. "Rockstar" - 202,970
Peak: #1 (Oct. 28 - Nov. 4)
5 weeks in Top 10 (Oct. 7 - Nov. 4)
5 weeks in Hot 100

73. "Praying" - 200,730
Peak: #22 (Sep. 2)
12 weeks in Top 30 (Jul. 29. Aug. 26 - Nov. 4)
15 weeks in Hot 100

74. "Chained To The Rhythm" - 197,610
Peak: #4 (Mar. 4)
2 weeks in Top 10 (Mar. 4 - 11)
16 weeks in Hot 100

75. "Feels" - 197,120
Peak: #20 (Sep. 2)
1 week in Top 20 (Sep. 2)
18 weeks in Hot 100

76. "Treat You Better" - 196,490
Peak: #16 (Dec. 3)*
4 weeks in Top 20 (Dec. 3 - 24)*
16 weeks in Hot 100*

77. "Love Galore" - 191,120
Peak: #32 (Oct. 14)
11 weeks in Top 40 (Aug. 19 - Oct. 28)
19 weeks in Hot 100

78. "Hurricane" - 190,040
Peak: #31 (May 27)
6 weeks in Top 30 (May 20 - Jun. 24)
22 weeks in Hot 100

79. "Both" - 186,970
Peak: #41 (Jan. 7. May 20)
14 weeks in Top 50 (Jan. 7 & 28 - Feb. 11. Mar. 4 - 18. Apr. 15 - Jun. 3)
22 weeks in Hot 100

80. "Water Under The Bridge" - 186,410
Peak: #26 (Feb. 11)
3 weeks in Top 30 (Feb. 11 - 25)
21 weeks in Hot 100*

81. "What Ifs" - 184,960
Peak: #26 (Nov. 4)
3 weeks in Top 30 (Oct. 21 - Nov. 4)
19 weeks in Hot 100

82. "No Promises" - 184,770
Peak: #38 (Oct. 21)
2 weeks in Top 40 (Sep. 9. Oct. 21)
23 weeks in Hot 100

83. "Sign Of The Times" - 183,050
Peak: #4 (Apr. 29)
1 week in Top 10 (Apr. 29)
13 weeks in Hot 100

84. "Small Town Boy" - 178,040
Peak: #36 (Sep. 9)
7 weeks in Top 40 (Aug. 26 - Sep. 16 & 30 - Oct. 14)
20 weeks in Hot 100

85. "Down" - 165,480
Peak: #21 (Mar. 18)
6 weeks in Top 30 (Mar. 4 - Apr. 8)
17 weeks in Hot 100

86. "Magnolia" - 165,290
Peak: #29 (Jul. 8 & 29 - Aug. 5)
5 weeks in Top 30 (Jul. 8 - Aug. 5)
20 weeks in Hot 100

87. "Young, Dumb & Broke" - 164,750
Peak: #25 (Oct. 14. Nov. 4)
6 weeks in Top 30 (Sep. 30 - Nov. 4)
14 weeks in Hot 100

88. "Deja Vu" - 164,500
Peak: #7 (Dec. 31)
1 week in Top 10 (Dec. 31)
20 weeks in Hot 100

89. "Slippery" - 164,480
Peak: #29 (Jul. 22)
1 week in Top 30 (Jul. 22)
21 weeks in Hot 100

90. "Swalla" - 164,170
Peak: #29 (Jun. 24)
2 weeks in Top 30 (Jun. 24 - Jul. 1)
20 weeks in Hot 100

91. "Everyday We Lit" - 163,720
Peak: #33 (Aug. 5)
10 weeks in Top 40 (Jul. 1 - Sep. 2)
20 weeks in Hot 100

92. "Drowning" - 162,970
Peak: #38 (Aug. 5)
4 weeks in Top 40 (Jul. 15. Aug. 5 & 19 - 26)
21 weeks in Hot 100

93. "Dirt On My Boots" - 162,890
Peak: #37 (Apr. 1)
3 weeks in Top 40 (Mar. 4. Apr. 1 & 15)
20 weeks in Hot 100

94. "The Fighter" - 162,760
Peak: #38 (Apr. 22)
1 week in Top 40 (Apr. 22)
23 weeks in Hot 100

95. "Malibu" - 162,300
Peak: #10 (Jun. 3)
1 week in Top 10 (Jun. 3)
15 weeks in Hot 100

96. "Look At Me!" - 160,560
Peak: #34 (Apr. 22)
2 weeks in Top 40 (Apr. 22 - 29)
20 weeks in Hot 100

97. "This Town" - 159,460
Peak: #20 (Jan. 14)
1 week in Top 20 (Jan. 14)
15 weeks in Hot 100*

98. "Cheap Thrills" -156,730
Peak: #19 (Dec. 3)*
1 week in Top 20 (Dec. 3)*
13 weeks in Hot 100*

99. "The Greatest" - 154,910
Peak: #18 (Dec. 10 - 24)*
4 weeks in Top 20 (Dec. 3 - 24)*
13 weeks in Hot 100*

100. "What About Us" - 153,150
Peak: #13 (Nov. 4)
1 week in Top 20 (Nov. 4)
11 weeks in Hot 100


Others:
"Butterfly Effect" - 145,640
"Too Good At Goodbyes" - 144,110
"Crew" - 140,340
"Do Re Mi" - 139,550
"I Get The Bag" - 137,290
"What Lovers Do" - 126,510
"...Ready For It?" - 102,640
"New Rules" - 99,540
"Havana" - 94,700
"When It Rains It Pours" - 91,740
"Perfect" - 86,570
"Bad At Love" - 61,860
"Gucci Gang" - 61,280

[inverse]

Really good news Do Re Mi went up to 40 this week so its chance of sneaking in and pushing Look At Me down another spot is looking good. It'll be passed by rockstar, YDB, What About Us, Too Good At Goodbyes, What Lovers Do, and I Get The Bag which puts it at 100. Do Re Mi might be the hero we need to kick it down that one extra spot and make it miss, which would make Malibu the #100 which would be kinda funny because it would give Miley Cyrus the second #100 in 4 years.

It's not a good song but I hope Malibu makes it because then all four of the TV show girls, Miley, Selena, Demi, and Ariana, would all have a hit on the year end list. Only other time that happened was in 2013.

EDIT: Butterfly Effect might also be a contender if it can get all 23 weeks

[rainie]

Kind of interesting how different several of the other lists people posted were in terms of cutoff songs. I remember on Broccoli's predictions, Malibu was safe and Deja Vu was borderline, but it's the inverse here. I'm personally really hoping that the former predictions are true since I really want to see Malibu sneak in, but it seems too close to call at this point.

Side note: Are we sure What Lovers Do is as close as we think it is? I know its had a fairly strong run so far, being in the top 30 all of its weeks but one, but it's still only had a single digit amount of weeks on the hot 100, with a fairly low peak of 17 and 2(?) weeks in the top 20.

Also how well would New Rules have to do to sneak in on the YE? I feel like it's just gonna miss this year and next year by virtue of bad luck.

[Deleted]

Will Crew make it if it spends the rest of the 3 remaining weeks in he 45 to 50 range or nah?

[Mylo13 💜]

Funny to see This Town far below SOTT, considering Spectrum Pulse said that the former would definitely make it while the latter was unlikely. I'm hoping they both make it tbh.

[Deleted]

Oct 25, 2017 15:19:22 GMT -5 rainie said:

Kind of interesting how different several of the other lists people posted were in terms of cutoff songs. I remember on Broccoli's predictions, Malibu was safe and Deja Vu was borderline, but it's the inverse here. I'm personally really hoping that the former predictions are true since I really want to see Malibu sneak in, but it seems too close to call at this point.

Side note: Are we sure What Lovers Do is as close as we think it is? I know its had a fairly strong run so far, being in the top 30 all of its weeks but one, but it's still only had a single digit amount of weeks on the hot 100, with a fairly low peak of 17 and 2(?) weeks in the top 20.

Also how well would New Rules have to do to sneak in on the YE? I feel like it's just gonna miss this year and next year by virtue of bad luck.

I don't remember Broccoli doing 2017 predictions, you mean Ride$?
What Lovers Do sure have a chance of making it despite that, it's getting 19,000 points per week, which should be enough to secure it at the 100-90 range

New Rules would need to average about 21,000 per week, so it should reach the top 15 to have a chance, which is very unlikely. I think it'll be caught between years ,unfortunately

[willapted33]

Let's go Travis!

[truemusicreviews]

Oh god I hope "do re mi" doesn't make it.

[truemusicreviews]

How likely is "Havana" to make it?

[inverse]

I really do think that the formula for these most recent weeks gives them a ton more points than the others, for example Do Re Mi at 40 got over 11500 points which idk if that's right, I remember Ride$ usually gave songs around 40 about 8000 or 9000. However I do think that if Do Re Mi spends the last 3 weeks in the top 40 it'll be ahead of Look At Me

[.It'sGriffin]

So the battle for #1 now comes down to whether or not Desspacito will fall fast enough?

[Deleted]

Oct 25, 2017 15:56:26 GMT -5 inverse said:

I really do think that the formula for these most recent weeks gives them a ton more points than the others, for example Do Re Mi at 40 got over 11500 points which idk if that's right, I remember Ride$ usually gave songs around 40 about 8000 or 9000. However I do think that if Do Re Mi spends the last 3 weeks in the top 40 it'll be ahead of Look At Me

i'm actually using the Sales = 1/750, Streaming = 1/160,000 and Radio = 1/850,000 × 100

So, Do Re Mi = 10k/750 + 15.5m/160k + 8m/850,000 × 100 = 11,500 - 12,000 points

Edit: It really are giving more points because Ride$ used alot of multipliers during his predictions (0.7, 0.75, 0.8, 0.85 and 0.9) in his last one he used 0.7, so Do Re Mi would actually get 8,050 points in his predictions, thats why

[CF15]

Oct 25, 2017 15:59:30 GMT -5 .It'sGriffin said:

So the battle for #1 now comes down to whether or not Desspacito will fall fast enough?

It looks like it only had about 2k-3k more points than "Shape of You" this week, so at this rate it cannot reach #1 on these predictions. However, if it is possible for there to be enough of a discrepancy between these predictions and the actual list, there might still be a chance.

[rainie]

Yeah idk, I'd be pretty surprised if something like Crew or Butterfly Effect was able to sneak on if they stayed at approximately the same position they're out now, I know not everything is told by stats but 46/20 weeks on and 51/24 weeks on wouldn't make it in most years, unless they truly had an exceptional run (which neither of those songs had). Do Re Mi I could see making it if it holds for the next few weeks.

[inverse]

So for songs repeating on the year end list from 2016-2017 it looks like we have: (most of these places are just estimations)

10-8 Closer
58-23 Starboy
77-46 Side To Side
47-52 Let Me Love You
9-53 Can't Stop The Feeling! (highest song from last year to repeat)
21-58 Heathens
34-68 Broccoli
94-75 Starving
28-82 Treat You Better

STILL A CONTENDER:
11-105 Cheap Thrills

[scrohr424]

Oct 25, 2017 15:55:56 GMT -5 truemusicreviews said:

How likely is "Havana" to make it?

As I said, I have a feeling that it'll fall into the group of "would have made it with one more week", but it could get extremely lucky. It gained a considerable amount more than last week, and depending on how much it gains it could scrape in the bottom 5 or 10. And if it doesn't, there's next year's lineup.

[bobbybob]

"I Get The Bag", "What Lovers Do" and "Crew" look like locks to me at this point.
"do re mi" needs to stay on for 1-2 extra weeks, which it seems stable enough to do.
"Havana" could reach the top 10, which could be *just* enough to edge it on.
"Butterfly Effect" needs two more weeks, which I expect it to do.
"Perfect" will need to really pick up to make it, like three weeks at #8-ish level average points. I don't think it'll do it.
"...Ready For It?" will need a massive rebound thanks to the video for its last two weeks of the year, which I don't expect either.
Assuming all of these predictions are accurate, plus "What About Us" and "Too Good At Goodbyes", that makes "Drowning" the #100.

[Deleted]

bobbybob Idk if Crew is a lock yet. It needs to stay the next 3 weeks around the same range as it is now to be in it. I think. But I could be wrong.

[bobbybob]

Oct 25, 2017 21:29:35 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

bobbybob Idk if Crew is a lock yet. It needs to stay the next 3 weeks around the same range as it is now to be in it. I think. But I could be wrong.

It's still looking stable on airplay, at least for next week. Even if it does start collapsing, it won't be hard enough fast enough to clip it from the YE, considering how many points it needs.

[propanda]

Week 49 out of 52

About the first 94 songs.

For the last 6, I've narrowed it down to these eight.
Malibu, Look At Me!, Butterfly Effect, Too Good At Goodbyes, What About Us, What Lovers Do, I Get The Bag, This Town