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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2017 14:14:07 GMT -5
Week 49 out of 52 About the first 94 songs. For the last 6, I've narrowed it down to these eight. Malibu, Look At Me!, Butterfly Effect, Too Good At Goodbyes, What About Us, What Lovers Do, I Get The Bag, This Town No Crew or Do Re Mi? :( |
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Post by kcdawg13 on Oct 26, 2017 14:16:48 GMT -5
Week 49 out of 52 About the first 94 songs. For the last 6, I've narrowed it down to these eight. Malibu, Look At Me!, Butterfly Effect, Too Good At Goodbyes, What About Us, What Lovers Do, I Get The Bag, This Town No Crew or Do Re Mi?  Good riddance. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2017 14:18:27 GMT -5
No Crew or Do Re Mi? Good riddance. They could still make it. That was just his prediction. |
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Post by kcdawg13 on Oct 26, 2017 14:20:10 GMT -5
They could still make it. That was just his prediction. I know, I just hope they don't. I mean, Crew is alright, basic rap song, but we have enough of those on the YE anyways. Do Re Mi is atrocious. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2017 14:21:09 GMT -5
They could still make it. That was just his prediction. I know, I just hope they don't. I mean, Crew is alright, basic rap song, but we have enough of those on the YE anyways. Do Re Mi is atrocious. And I am the one calling Butterfly Effect basic. |
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Post by kcdawg13 on Oct 26, 2017 14:25:29 GMT -5
I know, I just hope they don't. I mean, Crew is alright, basic rap song, but we have enough of those on the YE anyways. Do Re Mi is atrocious. And I am the one calling Butterfly Effect basic. Butterfly Effect is also basic, lmao. Along with Bad and Boujee, Goosebumps, Bank Account, rockstar, Bodak Yellow, etc. I don't hate any of these songs, I actually love rockstar and Bad and Boujee has grown on me. But they are pretty basic milk, bread, and eggs of rap. |
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singingrulebritannia
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Post by singingrulebritannia on Oct 26, 2017 15:18:06 GMT -5
Crew may be basic but it's 90s throwback which isn't seen anywhere else among the potential hip hop on the list
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Oct 26, 2017 18:07:52 GMT -5
Hopefully Havana will make a last-minute entry Crew may be basic but it's 90s throwback which isn't seen anywhere else among the potential hip hop on the list ehh idk if I'd call it that. It doesn't use the Migos flow, and there's no Auto-Tune, but it's still very clearly becoming successful off of the abundance of trap this year has given us |
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propanda
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Post by propanda on Oct 26, 2017 18:31:36 GMT -5
Guys... remember that really awesome Riptide song from a couple of years back?
You know, UK big hit, sleeper hit in the US, did really well in the top 40 once it got there barely missed the year end in it's first year on the chart, still enough to get the artist onto the Top Hot 100 Artists List?
Well, if New Rules continues longevity in 30-40, do you think it can pull a Riptide for 2017/18?
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 26, 2017 18:41:23 GMT -5
Guys... remember that really awesome Riptide song from a couple of years back? You know, UK big hit, sleeper hit in the US, did really well in the top 40 once it got there barely missed the year end in it's first year on the chart, still enough to get the artist onto the Top Hot 100 Artists List? Well, if New Rules continues longevity in 30-40, do you think it can pull a Riptide for 2017/18? I remember it, that song was so awesome and it is so good. I was happy when it entered 2015's YE despite that #30 peak (its YE position was #71) |
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 26, 2017 18:44:50 GMT -5
Week 49 out of 52 About the first 94 songs. For the last 6, I've narrowed it down to these eight. Malibu, Look At Me!, Butterfly Effect, Too Good At Goodbyes, What About Us, What Lovers Do, I Get The Bag, This Town No Crew or Do Re Mi? It's kinda silly for me, but I want Do Re Mi in, but not Crew. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2017 18:52:04 GMT -5
I still think that Crew will miss the YE, it might end up in the "could make it with one more week" club. Do Re Mi is safe as long as it don't collapses too hard in these last 3 weeks
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Oct 26, 2017 23:04:53 GMT -5
Guys I think Havana might actually have an outside shot. I know it sounds crazy right now but it's predicted to go up to #7 with 24800 points. If it got that total all three weeks that would add 74400 to its total and put it at 169100. And it might continue to gain even more points in the next two weeks. I know it seems completely unrealistic but don't count it out just yet.
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CF15
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Post by CF15 on Oct 26, 2017 23:23:18 GMT -5
I honestly would not be surprised at all if "Havana" made it.
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rainie
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Post by rainie on Oct 27, 2017 10:57:31 GMT -5
Yeah I could see Havana or maybe even Perfect sneaking in if they really pick up the pace.
And while I really want New Rules to pull a Riptide, it's already stalling on radio so I'm not holding my breath :/
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thelegends
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Post by thelegends on Oct 27, 2017 14:06:29 GMT -5
Well, Havana has a good chance of making it. Butterfly Effect is rising on airplay but falling on spotify. Idk where it will go. It isn't falling off quickly on spotify.
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thelegends
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Post by thelegends on Oct 27, 2017 14:08:32 GMT -5
Again, i wish somebody in travis scott's management team would discount it. It is 2017's Really Really or El Pérdon
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Myth X
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Post by Myth X on Oct 27, 2017 14:38:55 GMT -5
Is there any chance that Closer ends outside of the top 10?
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mako
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Post by mako on Oct 27, 2017 19:33:03 GMT -5
Is there any chance that Closer ends outside of the top 10? Nope, its already wedged in there. |
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rimetm
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Post by rimetm on Oct 27, 2017 20:03:45 GMT -5
Looking at the weekly numbers and trajections, these are my rough estimates for how the top 10's shaping up in these final 3 weeks:
Shape of You
1,485,500 (16k avg)
Despacito
1,464,000 (19k avg)
That's What I Like
1,184,000 (12k avg)
HUMBLE.
785,000 (11k avg)
Believer
755,500 (17k avg)
Bad & Boujee
745,010 (locked)
Body Like a Back Road
736,000 (9k avg)
Closer
727,690 (locked)
Something Just Like This
727,500 (10k avg)
Congratulations
707,000 (12k avg)
There are three things I'm keeping an eye on that can throw my predictions out of whack:
-Despacito v.s. Shape of You: If the latter begins to freefall thanks to Perfect eating its airplay, that could tip the scales in the former's favor for the #1.
-Body Like a Back Road: If the Country rotation or Pop rotation start to crash this song before three weeks are up, it could fall into recurrency and thus break my average prediction.
-Congratulations: I know Spotify's starting to love this song again thanks to Rockstar, and it might make it actually boost? My predictions are based on the assumption that it stabilizes and staggers a bit.
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CF15
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Post by CF15 on Oct 27, 2017 21:30:20 GMT -5
To think that 8 of the top 10 will still be charting at the end of the tracking year, lol.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Oct 27, 2017 22:43:11 GMT -5
It was that way in 2015 too. In fact not only that but also 3 of the year end top 10 in 2015 made the year end in 2016. This year the only one that has even the tiniest of chances is Believer
Edit: AND 4 of then would have made it were it not for 52 week rule
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thelegends
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Post by thelegends on Oct 28, 2017 0:09:27 GMT -5
Funny to see This Town far below SOTT, considering Spectrum Pulse said that the former would definitely make it while the latter was unlikely. I'm hoping they both make it tbh. He said that This Town is a lock at the start of the year. He spoke about SOTT later in this year |
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scrohr424
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Post by scrohr424 on Oct 28, 2017 13:14:54 GMT -5
To think that 8 of the top 10 will still be charting at the end of the tracking year, lol. So we've got three more weeks, and Reputation will debut on the 12/2 week, the first week of the 2018 charting year, and most likely album bomb. That could wipe at least some of the Year-End Top 10 right off - between Humble, Body Like A Back Road, Something Just Like This, and Congratulations, I have a feeling at least two of those will get blown off the table by that. The big three (Shape Of You, Despacito, and That's What I Like) should all manage to last a full year, or maybe TWIL could end up doing a Watch Me and falling off on its 51st. And regarding Crew and Do Re Mi, I'm not the biggest fan of either, but if it means **** ** ** not making it, so be it. Lastly, Havana and Perfect - as inverse said, the former is predicted to enter the Top 10 next week, so if you duplicate the predicted point totals that fhas listed for the last three weeks, it'll make it. But the latter will most likely end up in the "would have made it with one more week" group, sadly. |
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rainie
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Post by rainie on Oct 28, 2017 13:48:38 GMT -5
So now that it's an official single and its video just came out, what are the chances of Ready for It sneaking into the 2017 list? It looks like it could pull a Rap God and be split between years by virtue of having its highest points weeks be in a different year then the majority of its other weeks, though it could probably avert that if it jumps up as much as some people think it will.
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Post by kcdawg13 on Oct 28, 2017 14:54:26 GMT -5
So now that it's an official single and its video just came out, what are the chances of Ready for It sneaking into the 2017 list? It looks like it could pull a Rap God and be split between years by virtue of having its highest points weeks be in a different year then the majority of its other weeks, though it could probably avert that if it jumps up as much as some people think it will. I think it depends on how much it gains within the last three weeks, it shouldn't make a huge impact until the Nov. 18 chart and that gives it two weeks. The video should give it a boost, but airplay and streaming still need to catch up, and it's only #8 on iTunes which isn't remarkable. It's gonna likely miss, though I see it as a strong contender for next years YE as it'll breakthrough by December, you know with the album release and everything. |
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MilesW1998
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Post by MilesW1998 on Oct 29, 2017 1:28:37 GMT -5
I don't think Taylor will have the same type of album bomb on the Hot 100 like any other rap artist whose done it for years with streaming. If Katy couldn't, and Kesha couldn't, what are the chances that Taylor could do it?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2017 4:50:26 GMT -5
I don't think Taylor will have the same type of album bomb on the Hot 100 like any other rap artist whose done it for years with streaming. If Katy couldn't, and Kesha couldn't, what are the chances that Taylor could do it? The thing is, if you combine Katy and Kesha’s first week and triple that, the total would be around the low end of what Taylor’s expected to do. |
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scrohr424
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Post by scrohr424 on Oct 29, 2017 5:52:50 GMT -5
Not to mention the Reputation singles so far have started off with big streaming, even though they've fallen off that front quick. She did come back to streaming back in June, after all.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2017 8:05:20 GMT -5
Remember, Justin Bieber isn't a rap star, yet every track on Purpose debuted onto the Hot 100. Every reputation track debuting into the Hot 100 isn't impossible in a way.
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