Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Dylan :)]

Mar 21, 2015 10:20:58 GMT -5 jarhys said:

Looks like there will be 8 songs that appear on both 2014 & 2015 year-end charts:

• Shake It Off
• All About That Bass
• Animals
• Stay With Me
• Habits (Stay High)
  
• Bang Bang
  
• Don't
  
• Chandelier

Yaas Sia! 

[jarhys]

Mar 21, 2015 10:32:48 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

OMFG Jarhys can you please stop constantly posting what the predictions they would land on the 2014 chart, its getting annoying, Im trying to read Daniel Collins predictions and you are ruining it with your posts constantly always right after him. I mean we f**kin get it, why dont you wait until the end of the year to do it, doing it every week is annoying. Thanks

I can put a spoiler tag so you can ignore it. :)

Mar 21, 2015 10:40:12 GMT -5 johonmilla said:

Seriously if you dont want to read it scroll down. I very enjoy Jarhys posts as it tells me not only what their position would be last year but how they might finish at the end of the year. I want him to continue doing it and I bet many people like it too. He's isn't going to take it off because one person gets annoyed by it.

Mar 21, 2015 10:47:57 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

Honestly, I really like what jarhys is doing because I don't have to look at page 13 (or 14?) to see where each song would land. Just like what is stated above you could opt to just scroll it down.

Thanks for the supports.

[mamooshka]

I find it helpful as well. Thanks Jarhys! (Someone needs to cut back on the RedBull for a couple of days) :)

[Ravi]

Uptown Funk! - 59150 (-5.1%)
Sugar - 43320 (+4.7%)

The current gap between these two songs and the rate it is closing suggests that Uptown Funk will easily win 2 more weeks. It may even win a 3rd week, if it can sustain well and/or Sugar peaks below 48k points, which is certainly possible.

[tucomrang]

This week last year the number 1 song was on 613k points, now we got UF close to 1million. I wonder how many points it would get when all it is said and done 
And look like Ed will snatch Taylor in 4 weeks at this rate 

[Deleted]

UF's got this year's #1 in the bag. Call in the dogs and put out the fire, it's basically a contest for 2nd place.

[Future Captain]

For all we know, a Blurred Lines sized hit could suddenly appear in the summer and Mark will be panicking.

[Deleted]

Mar 24, 2015 17:08:42 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

For all we know, a Blurred Lines sized hit could suddenly appear in the summer and Mark will be panicking.

But Blurred Lines never overtook Thrift Shop did it? :) and mind you Uptown Funk is looking like an even bigger smash than Thrift Shop (it will likely get more weeks in the top 2, top 5, top 10)

[mamooshka]

Would be great if stayed on top for 17 whole weeks ... beating Mimi's record.

[velaxti]

Mar 24, 2015 17:08:42 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

For all we know, a Blurred Lines sized hit could suddenly appear in the summer and Mark will be panicking.

You'd need a song bigger than Blurred Lines to smash asap to get the year-end #1 (since the actual Blurred Lines ended up #2 due to being released too late). Infact, the song would have to be bigger than Uptown Funk!

I just can't see it happening. Maybe if a big hit later in the year goes massively viral and gets 100 million streams a week like Harlem Shake, plus has strong airplay to give it longevity it could happen.

[Queen of Insomnia.]

A smash bigger than Blurred Lines already happened: It's Uptown Funk!. It's bound to spend +12 weeks as Hot 100 #1. It will top 5 million in sales in its 20th week on the charts (BL did it in 22nd wk)It's been dominating all 3 charts components for two months now (this never happened before), getting weekly streams close to 20M. What makes it even more difficult is that UF! was released at the beginning of the 2015 year-end charts eligibility period.

[Future Captain]

Ah well, let's see. Uptown Funk seemed to have 14 weeks at #1 in the bag, and I guess it really has Year-End #1 in the bag. Funny how at first many thought that it may got blocked from #1. Thinking Out Loud will probably return to #2 for one more week, then slowly descend down the chart. I will say TOL has the year end top 5 in the bag.

So... Anybody got a guess on what could dethrone UF? Sugar and LMLYD already seemed to lose their chance, TOL already peaked, Earned It is a very small maybe, and I don't see anything other than Shut Up and Dance making huge gains.

[Ravi]

Mar 24, 2015 19:54:46 GMT -5 mamooshka said:

Would be great if stayed on top for 17 whole weeks ... beating Mimi's record.

I wouldn't rule it out. Certainly it doesn't have any threat from any of the other Top-5 songs right now.

First target should be to win 15 weeks and become only the 2nd song in the chart history to do it.

[Deleted]

Well Rihanna's new single drops tomorrow so if it does significantly better than FourFiveSeconds then it might dethrone Uptown Funk sooner than we expect...although just looking at the title of the song I can already see it not doing so well (especially since the first single failed to reach the top 3)

[mamooshka]

It's always exciting to see records broken.

Rihanna's soundtrack single is an interesting departure from her usual sound (and will deservedly do well), but IMO doesn't quite sound like a #1.  (puke)Has J Lo released her single from the same film yet?

[Deleted]

Trap Queen is going to be the song to dethrone Uptown Funk, I am calling it.

[Deleted]

No way lol. The song with the best chance right now is Earned It. Otherwise it will be a song that we have not heard yet. Unless somehow LMLYD or Sugar rise from the dead but I wouldn't count on that.

[jarhys]

Mar 26, 2015 19:52:18 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

No way lol. The song with the best chance right now is Earned It. Otherwise it will be a song that we have not heard yet. Unless somehow LMLYD or Sugar rise from the dead but I wouldn't count on that.

Earned It is rising but not enough I think.

How about Shut Up And Dance?

[Future Captain]

Mar 27, 2015 5:13:42 GMT -5 jarhys said:

Mar 26, 2015 19:52:18 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

No way lol. The song with the best chance right now is Earned It. Otherwise it will be a song that we have not heard yet. Unless somehow LMLYD or Sugar rise from the dead but I wouldn't count on that.

Earned It is rising but not enough I think.

How about Shut Up And Dance?

Shut Up and Dance need a big TV performance to reach #1. BBMA is the closest one, I think.

[mamooshka]

Maybe something from Adele's new CD, "25" ?  

[Future Captain]

Mar 27, 2015 7:10:08 GMT -5 mamooshka said:

Maybe something from Adele's new CD, "25" ?  

For now, it's just as real as Sherlock's 4th season, tbh.

[jarhys]

Mar 27, 2015 6:03:00 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

Mar 27, 2015 5:13:42 GMT -5 jarhys said:

Earned It is rising but not enough I think.

How about Shut Up And Dance?

Shut Up and Dance need a big TV performance to reach #1. BBMA is the closest one, I think.

What is BBMA? 

[tucomrang]

Mar 27, 2015 10:58:08 GMT -5 jarhys said:

Mar 27, 2015 6:03:00 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

Shut Up and Dance need a big TV performance to reach #1. BBMA is the closest one, I think.

What is BBMA? 

BillBoard Music Awards

[Deleted]

Mar 27, 2015 5:13:42 GMT -5 jarhys said:

Mar 26, 2015 19:52:18 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

No way lol. The song with the best chance right now is Earned It. Otherwise it will be a song that we have not heard yet. Unless somehow LMLYD or Sugar rise from the dead but I wouldn't count on that.

Earned It is rising but not enough I think.

How about Shut Up And Dance?

SUAD also possible

[jarhys]

Mar 27, 2015 12:15:25 GMT -5 tucomrang said:

Mar 27, 2015 10:58:08 GMT -5 jarhys said:

What is BBMA? 

BillBoard Music Awards

Oops, I thought it is a song.

[Daniel Collins]

Week 18: Up to week dated 4/4/15

Formula: Sales/10 + Airplay/9,650 + Streams/775

Hot 100	Song	Points	% Streams	%Sales	%Radio
1	Uptown Funk!	61,270	40%	31%	29%
2	Sugar	41,610	30%	37%	32%
3	Thinking Out Loud	39,770	32%	32%	36%
4	Love Me Like You Do	35,310	30%	37%	32%
5	FourFiveSeconds	28,160	31%	40%	29%
6	Earned It (Fifty Shades Of Grey)	27,650	37%	37%	26%
7	Style	25,390	16%	29%	55%
8	Trap Queen	24,240	55%	31%	14%
9	Time Of Our Lives	22,030	22%	28%	50%
10	G.D.F.R.	20,850	32%	48%	19%

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
1	1	Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars	Uptown Funk!	1,016,840	1	18	1
2	2	Taylor Swift	Blank Space	755,800	11	18	1
3	3	Ed Sheeran	Thinking Out Loud	703,470	3	18	2
4	4	Hozier	Take Me To Church	648,660	12	18	2
5	5	Meghan Trainor	Lips Are Movin	472,620	17	18	4
6	6	Sam Smith	I'm Not The Only One	450,780	23	18	5
7	7	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	427,200	24	18	4
8	8	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	410,720	25	18	2
9	9	Nick Jonas	Jealous	379,600	38	18	7
11	10	Maroon 5	Sugar	361,770	2	10	2
10	11	Maroon 5	Animals	346,340	35	18	4
13	12	Big Sean ft. E-40	I Don't Fuck With You	325,790	34	18	11
12	13	Ariana Grande & The Weeknd	Love Me Harder	319,810	-	16	7
14	14	Fall Out Boy	Centuries	313,040	29	18	10
15	15	Nicki Minaj ft. Drake, Lil Wayne, Chris Brown	Only	292,260	31	18	12
18	16	Ellie Goulding	Love Me Like You Do	292,160	4	11	3
16	17	Selena Gomez	The Heart Wants What It Wants	280,730	86	18	6
17	18	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	270,110	37	18	11
19	19	Usher ft. Juicy J	I Don't Mind	263,850	19	18	11
20	20	Rae Sremmurd	No Type	252,630	49	18	16
21	21	Beyonce	7/11	252,500	42	17	13
24	22	Pitbull ft. Ne-yo	Time Of Our Lives	244,200	9	15	9
27	23	Rihanna & Kanye West & Paul McCartney	FourFiveSeconds	242,460	5	9	4
22	24	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	233,310	-	14	6
23	25	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	223,080	-	15	12
26	26	James Newton Howard ft. Jennifer Lawrence	The Hanging Tree	222,040	100	17	12
29	27	Taylor Swift	Style	220,340	7	14	6
25	28	I LOVE MAKONNEN ft. Drake	Tuesday	219,670	-	14	13
35	29	Weeknd	Earned It (Fifty Shades Of Grey)	210,210	6	13	6
28	30	O.T. Genasis	CoCo	207,940	64	18	20
31	31	Vance Joy	Riptide	200,270	40	18	30
33	32	Sia	Chandelier	193,940	46	18	20
30	33	Ed Sheeran	Don't	192,170	-	13	10
32	34	Ella Henderson	Ghost	187,990	-	17	21
34	35	Mr. Probz	Waves	184,440	-	12	14
36	36	Flo Rida ft. Sage The Gemini, Lookas	G.D.F.R.	181,020	10	17	10
37	37	Ne-yo ft. Juicy J	She Knows	165,740	36	17	19
38	38	One Direction	Night Changes	161,080	45	18	31
39	39	Lillywood & Robin Schulz	Prayer In C	148,370	44	16	23
40	40	Bobby Shmurda	Hot Boy	134,800	-	9	15
48	41	Nicki Minaj ft. Drake, Lil Wayne	Truffle Butter	134,250	14	9	14
41	42	Calvin Harris ft. John Newmann	Blame	132,020	-	10	21
42	43	Imagine Dragons	I Bet My Life	131,550	54	18	28
57	44	Walk The Moon	Shut Up + Dance	123,980	15	17	15
43	45	Jeremih ft. YG	Don't Tell 'Em	123,440	-	10	22
44	46	Alesso ft. Tove Lo	Heroes (We Could Be)	120,990	-	13	31
45	47	Iggy Azalea ft. Rita Ora	Black Widow	119,610	-	10	23
65	48	Fetty Wrap	Trap Queen	118,390	8	9	8
46	49	Iggy Azalea ft. M0	Beg For It	118,340	-	12	27
49	50	Luke Bryan	I See You	117,730	90	17	41
50	51	OneRepublic	I Lived	116,770	92	17	32
59	52	Chris Brown & Tyga	Ayo	116,760	22	11	22
56	53	Sia	Elastic Heart	116,170	48	11	17
47	54	Florida Georgia Line	Sun Daze	116,100	-	16	44
55	55	Blake Shelton ft. Ashley Monroe	Lonely Tonight	112,780	80	16	47
51	56	Dej Loaf	Try Me	111,720	-	16	45
52	57	Eric Church	Talladega	111,710	-	16	43
53	58	Carrie Underwood	Something In The Water	110,800	-	13	37
58	59	Thomas Rhett	Make Me Wanna	110,320	89	18	43
54	60	MAGIC!	Rude	110,020	-	11	27
62	61	Sam Hunt	Take Your Time	109,320	21	12	21
72	62	Natalie La Rose ft. Jeremih	Somebody	105,510	13	9	13
69	63	Kelly Clarkson	Heartbeat Song	102,510	28	10	21
60	64	Tim McGraw	Shotgun Rider	101,350	-	13	38
63	65	Brett Eldredge	Mean To Me	101,020	68	18	53
71	66	Calvin Harris ft. Ellie Goulding	Outside	100,520	30	12	30
64	67	Jason Aldean	Just Getting' Started	99,900	70	16	54
61	68	Fergie	L.A.LOVE (la la)	98,890	-	12	27
67	69	Nicki Minaj ft. Beyonce	Feeling Myself	96,560	71	14	43
66	70	Fifth Harmony	Sledgehammer	93,100	-	15	40
68	71	Lee Brice	Drinking Class	90,900	-	15	60
70	72	Jason Derulo	Trumpets	89,330	-	7	17
73	73	The Weeknd	Often	85,930	-	15	59
76	74	Chris Young	Lonely Eyes	81,450	50	14	50
74	75	Clean Bandit ft. Jess Glynne	Rather Be	79,910	-	8	28
75	76	J.Cole	Apparently	79,750	75	14	58
87	77	Nick Jonas	Chains	79,590	20	8	20
93	78	Ariana Grande	One Last Time	76,520	16	6	16
84	79	Darius Rucker	Homegrown Honey	76,310	55	15	55
85	80	Cole Swindell	Ain't Worth The Whiskey	75,000	43	12	43
77	81	One Direction	Steal My Girl	73,080	-	11	29
78	82	Rich Gang ft. Young Thug, Rich Homie Quan	Lifestyle	73,040	-	7	27
89	83	Omarion ft. Chris Brown, Jhene Aiko	Post To Be	72,970	32	11	32
95	84	Sam Smith	Lay Me Down	72,950	18	7	8
79	85	Brad Paisley	Perfect Storm	71,650	-	11	52
91	86	Zac Brown Band	Homegrown	71,030	41	10	41
80	87	Milky Chance	Stolen Dance	70,740	-	8	39
81	88	Trey Songz ft. Nicki Minaj	Touchin, Lovin	70,530	-	9	44
82	89	Randy Houser	Like A Cowboy	70,430	-	14	62
83	90	DJ Khaled ft. Chris Brown, August Alsina, Future, Jeremih	Hold You Down	70,220	-	9	39
98	91	Big Sean ft. Drake	Blessings	67,430	33	7	30
94	92	Rae Sremmurd ft. Nicki Minaj, Young Thug	Throw Sum Mo	65,750	51	12	51
86	93	Prince Royce ft. Snoop Dogg	Stuck On A Feeling	65,130	-	10	43
97	94	Sheppard	Geronimo	64,410	59	13	58
88	95	RaeLynn	God Made Girls	62,800	-	12	61
90	96	David Guetta ft. Sam Martin	Dangerous	61,450	-	11	56
92	97	Kenny Chesney	Til It's Gone	60,450	-	11	60
96	98	Nicki Minaj	Anaconda	57,330	-	7	48
104	99	Drake	Energy	55,490	52	6	26
106	100	Tove Lo	Talking Body	54,680	39	8	39

[jarhys]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Spoiler}{Spoiler: Prediction how the songs might finish at the end of the year based on last year.}

LY	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
5	1	Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars	Uptown Funk!	1,016,840	1	18	1
12	2	Taylor Swift	Blank Space	755,800	11	18	1
15	3	Ed Sheeran	Thinking Out Loud	703,470	3	18	2
17	4	Hozier	Take Me To Church	648,660	12	18	2
28	5	Meghan Trainor	Lips Are Movin	472,620	17	18	4
31	6	Sam Smith	I'm Not The Only One	450,780	23	18	5
37	7	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	427,200	24	18	4
40	8	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	410,720	25	18	2
45	9	Nick Jonas	Jealous	379,600	38	18	7
47	10	Maroon 5	Sugar	361,770	2	10	2
47	11	Maroon 5	Animals	346,340	35	18	4
49	12	Big Sean ft. E-40	I Don't f**k With You	325,790	34	18	11
50	13	Ariana Grande & The Weeknd	Love Me Harder	319,810	-	16	7
50	14	Fall Out Boy	Centuries	313,040	29	18	10
56	15	Nicki Minaj ft. Drake, Lil Wayne, Chris Brown	Only	292,260	31	18	12
56	16	Ellie Goulding	Love Me Like You Do	292,160	4	11	3
57	17	Selena Gomez	The Heart Wants What It Wants	280,730	86	18	6
58	18	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	270,110	37	18	11
60	19	Usher ft. Juicy J	I Don't Mind	263,850	19	18	11
67	20	Rae Sremmurd	No Type	252,630	49	18	16
68	21	Beyonce	7/11	252,500	42	17	13
71	22	Pitbull ft. Ne-yo	Time Of Our Lives	244,200	9	15	9
71	23	Rihanna & Kanye West & Paul McCartney	FourFiveSeconds	242,460	5	9	4
72	24	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	233,310	-	14	6
74	25	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	223,080	-	15	12
74	26	James Newton Howard ft. Jennifer Lawrence	The Hanging Tree	222,040	100	17	12
74	27	Taylor Swift	Style	220,340	7	14	6
74	28	I LOVE MAKONNEN ft. Drake	Tuesday	219,670	-	14	13
77	29	Weeknd	Earned It (Fifty Shades Of Grey)	210,210	6	13	6
77	30	O.T. Genasis	CoCo	207,940	64	18	20
79	31	Vance Joy	Riptide	200,270	40	18	30
84	32	Sia	Chandelier	193,940	46	18	20
84	33	Ed Sheeran	Don't	192,170	-	13	10
91	34	Ella Henderson	Ghost	187,990	-	17	21
96	35	Mr. Probz	Waves	184,440	-	12	14
99	36	Flo Rida ft. Sage The Gemini, Lookas	G.D.F.R.	181,020	10	17	10
112	37	Ne-yo ft. Juicy J	She Knows	165,740	36	17	19
116	38	One Direction	Night Changes	161,080	45	18	31
127	39	Lillywood & Robin Schulz	Prayer In C	148,370	44	16	23
144	41	Nicki Minaj ft. Drake, Lil Wayne	Truffle Butter	134,250	14	9	14
150	43	Imagine Dragons	I Bet My Life	131,550	54	18	28
154	44	Walk The Moon	Shut Up + Dance	123,980	15	17	15
166	48	Fetty Wrap	Trap Queen	118,390	8	9	8
167	50	Luke Bryan	I See You	117,730	90	17	41
170	51	OneRepublic	I Lived	116,770	92	17	32
170	52	Chris Brown & Tyga	Ayo	116,760	22	11	22
172	53	Sia	Elastic Heart	116,170	48	11	17
175	55	Blake Shelton ft. Ashley Monroe	Lonely Tonight	112,780	80	16	47
178	59	Thomas Rhett	Make Me Wanna	110,320	89	18	43
179	61	Sam Hunt	Take Your Time	109,320	21	12	21
186	62	Natalie La Rose ft. Jeremih	Somebody	105,510	13	9	13
189	63	Kelly Clarkson	Heartbeat Song	102,510	28	10	21
189	65	Brett Eldredge	Mean To Me	101,020	68	18	53
189	66	Calvin Harris ft. Ellie Goulding	Outside	100,520	30	12	30
190	67	Jason Aldean	Just Getting' Started	99,900	70	16	54
192	69	Nicki Minaj ft. Beyonce	Feeling Myself	96,560	71	14	43

Dark Horse reached 1 million points in week 28.
Happy reached 1 million points in week 29.

Uptown Funk! reached 1 million points in week 18!

[Deleted]

A 34.5% lead for Uptown Funk. Now tell me again, who were those idiots who doubted my earlier statement?

[Deleted]

No doubt Uptown Funk! will be one of the biggest hits of the decade...it's pretty much already guaranteed the longest time at #1 of any song this decade (so far at least)

[Future Captain]

Mar 28, 2015 13:16:16 GMT -5 @jakelmmrs44 said:

A 34.5% lead for Uptown Funk. Now tell me again, who were those idiots who doubted my earlier statement?

Me?