Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Normi]

'Love On The Slayn' above 'I Feel It Snoring'? yes please

[scrohr424]

Nov 3, 2017 21:57:30 GMT -5 @mirza said:

I don't care for The Chainsmokers nor XXXTENTACION, they both suck overall, though X is far worse, Chainsmokers are just bland af EDM radio fodder
Although the two Top 10 singles from the album beg to differ

Anyways, I hope Havana sneaks in, it my f**kinG JAAAAAAAM right now, the music video was so awesome
Upset that The Greatest however will not make it judging by these predictions, poor song got caught in between years, I love it so much too
I'm in the same boat with Love Me Now, that's one I'm sad that it'll miss it. But I still think Havana should be able to make it.

Happy to also see that The Fighter will most likely be making it
Also there's so many songs that peaked below top 30 that made it (No Promises, Love Galore, Goosebumps, etc), which is very interesting
Guess that's the kind of thing that happens when we have three super smashes that take most of the attention away from everything else.

Responses in bold.

[Deleted]

Paris is pretty darn bland, not a bad song, just uninteresting
SJLT is better but not so interesting either for me.

Closer was always solid, I would have liked it more if it was just Halsey

DLMD & Roses >>>>>> everything else the duo has

[inverse]

Nov 4, 2017 7:13:17 GMT -5 Normi said:

'Love On The Slayn' above 'I Feel It Snoring'? yes please

Ok I hate I Feel It Coming but that was incredibly lame lol

[GPMB]

Nov 3, 2017 20:05:50 GMT -5 mako said:

To be fair, you have to have a very high IQ to understand XXXTENTACION. The beats is extremely aggressive, and without a solid grasp of beating pregnant women, most of the music will go over a typical viewers head. There's also XXXTENTACION's depressing outlook, which is deftly woven into his characterisation- his personal philosophy draws heavily from all the depressing things, for instance. The fans understand this stuff; they have the intellectual capacity to truly appreciate the depths of Look At Me!, to realise that they're not just depressing- they say something deep about LIFE, which is, beating a pregnant woman to near-death. As a consequence people who dislike X truly ARE idiots- of course they wouldn't appreciate, for instance, the depression in X's existential catchphrase "Look at me, f**k on me". I'm smirking right now just imagining one of those music-lovers scratching their heads in anger as Jahseh Onfroy's genius wit unfolds itself on their mp3 players. What fools.. how I pity them. 😂
And yes, by the way, i DO have a XXXTENTACION tattoo. And no, you cannot see it. It's for the pregnant womens' eyes only- and even then they have to demonstrate that they're within 5 IQ points of my own (preferably lower) beforehand. Nothin personnel kid 😎
(im sorry)

I actually kinda like X's music but this is the comment of the century right here

[Deleted]

I just realized now that if I Get The Bag ends up making it, Migos will be the group with the most songs on the YE, with 5, and Quavo will have 8 songs in it. Crazy, right?

[inverse]

Quavo would have 8.

5 under Migos: Bad And Boujee, T-Shirt, Slippery, Slide, and I Get The Bag, and 3 solo features on I'm The One, Congratulations, and Strip That Down

[Deleted]

Nov 4, 2017 13:56:38 GMT -5 inverse said:

Quavo would have 8.

5 under Migos: Bad And Boujee, T-Shirt, Slippery, Slide, and I Get The Bag, and 3 solo features on I'm The One, Congratulations, and Strip That Down

i totally forgot about Slide, it really don't feel like a song that Migos would be in

[Deleted]

Humble has a lower chance at being this year's biggest rap song *facepalms*

[truemusicreviews]

Imagine not liking "I Feel It Coming".

[MilesW1998]

Nov 4, 2017 23:38:37 GMT -5 truemusicreviews said:

Imagine not liking "I Feel It Coming".

Yeah, that'd be me. 

[boysilver400]

HUMBLE. passes Migos or I riot.

[Golden Bluebird]

I don't mind if either "Bad and Boujee" or "HUMBLE." becomes the highest-ranking rap song on the YE, but I do prefer that it'd be Kendrick.

[fhas]

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - November 11th 2017

Formula: sales/7.2 + airplay/8400 + on-demand streams/1500 + YouTube streams/1500 + programmed streams/3000

#	Song	Points	Sales	Airplay	On-Demand	YouTube	Programmed	Total Streams	+/- (%)
1	rockstar	44,900	52.0k	56.0m	29.4m	10.6m	12.9m	53.0m	-0.4
2	Bodak Yellow	36,000	33.0k	71.0m	12.6m	17.5m	8.3m	38.6m	-7.9
3	1-800-273-8255	30,700	23.1k	88.0m	11.5m	10.3m	7.4m	29.3m	-3.6
4	Feel It Still	28,800	37.2k	128.0m	7.3m	2.4m	5.5m	15.2m	+5.7
5	Thunder	26,800	60.0k	81.0m	6.2m	4.8m	4.1m	15.2m	+0.3
6	Sorry Not Sorry	26,500	33.7k	88.0m	8.6m	6.3m	4.1m	19.0m	+3.9
7	Havana	26,200	42.0k	48.0m	9.4m	10.1m	4.8m	24.4m	+33.2
8	Mi Gente	25,200	29.0k	61.9m	8.7m	8.0m	7.9m	24.7m	-4.4
9	Too Good At Goodbyes	23,700	29.3k	67.2m	8.8m	6.6m	3.7m	19.2m	-0.2
10	Perfect	22,100	53.0k	53.0m	6.3m	5.7m	0.9m	13.1m	+11.2

Sources:

Hot 100's article
Billboard Chart Beat
HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand)
HDD's Revenue Chart
Kworb's Overall AI
YouTube Insights
Pandora Top Spins Chart
@chartdata (Twitter)

[fhas]

Points using simm's formula:

1. rockstar 46,300
2. Bodak Yellow 36,400
3. 1-800-273-8255 31,200
4. Feel It Still 28,700
5. Thunder 26,500
6. Mi Gente 26,200 (+2)
7. Sorry Not Sorry 26,200 (-1)
8. Havana 26,200 (-1)
9. Too Good At Goodbyes 23,400
10. Perfect 21,100

[inverse]

Nov 4, 2017 23:38:37 GMT -5 truemusicreviews said:

Imagine not liking "I Feel It Coming".

Doesn't take much of an imagination. It's like trying to imagine "Shape Of You" making the year-end hot 100

[CF15]

Nov 5, 2017 14:11:08 GMT -5 inverse said:

Nov 4, 2017 23:38:37 GMT -5 truemusicreviews said:

Imagine not liking "I Feel It Coming".

Doesn't take much of an imagination. It's like trying to imagine "Shape Of You" making the year-end hot 100

I think what he meant was that he can't understand the hate for it. Honestly, I can't really understand it, either...

[kcdawg13]

Nov 5, 2017 14:39:27 GMT -5 CF15 said:

Nov 5, 2017 14:11:08 GMT -5 inverse said:

Doesn't take much of an imagination. It's like trying to imagine "Shape Of You" making the year-end hot 100

I think what he meant was that he can't understand the hate for it. [img src="http://yoursmiles.org/ssmile/fun/s0244.gif" alt="" class="smile" src="//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/tongue.png"] Honestly, I can't really understand it, either...

I understand why people could dislike it, it's a pretty boring song honestly. I love it to death, but there's not a lot of energy in it, at least when you compare it to Starboy.

[CF15]

Nov 5, 2017 14:56:03 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Nov 5, 2017 14:39:27 GMT -5 CF15 said:

I think what he meant was that he can't understand the hate for it. [img src="http://yoursmiles.org/ssmile/fun/s0244.gif" src="//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/tongue.png" alt="" class="smile"] Honestly, I can't really understand it, either...

I understand why people could dislike it, it's a pretty boring song honestly. I love it to death, but there's not a lot of energy in it, at least when you compare it to Starboy.

Yeah, I prefer "Starboy", as well. Speaking of "Starboy", how likely do you think it is that it makes the year-end top 20? It could have been easily top 10, I'm sure, if its entire chart run was in a single chart year, especially in 2017, when everything below #3 was seemingly relatively weak...

[kcdawg13]

Nov 5, 2017 14:59:23 GMT -5 CF15 said:

Nov 5, 2017 14:56:03 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I understand why people could dislike it, it's a pretty boring song honestly. I love it to death, but there's not a lot of energy in it, at least when you compare it to Starboy.

Yeah, I prefer "Starboy", as well. [img src="http://yoursmiles.org/ssmile/fun/s0244.gif" src="//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/tongue.png" alt="" class="smile"] Speaking of "Starboy", how likely do you think it is that it makes the year-end top 20? It could have been easily top 10, I'm sure, if its entire chart run was in a single chart year, especially in 2017, when everything below #3 was seemingly relatively weak...

There's a chance, but it's likely gonna finish at #22.

[scrohr424]

Jan 26, 2017 13:59:03 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Jan 26, 2017 10:33:26 GMT -5 scrohr424 said:

Guys, as much as I would love for I Feel It Coming to be in the Year-End Top 5, let's not get prepared for that right away. Remember how some of us predicted that Don't Mind would hit #1 and make YE Top 10 last year, and instead it peaked at #8, fell below 50 and dropped out after 20 weeks? Yeah, anything can happen.

That being said, let's hope Bad and Boujee dies out soon. But of course we're not gonna get our wish are we.

I Feel It Coming is very different from Don't Mind. First of all, it's The Weeknd, an established artist with 3 number-one singles. While Kent Jones was a nobody. I Feel It Coming already has a large radio and streaming presence with some decent sales, compared to Don't Mind, which only had a streaming presence and didn't gain on radio until it had already peaked.

I Feel It Coming is a bonafide smash. It's already predicted to hit the Top 15 next week, and with Starboy falling on all regards, I Feel It Coming will come in and replace it. I have all bets that it'll reach #1 in a few weeks.

If it lacks and doesn't become a huge hit, then I'll accept defeat.

Bringing back this post from January, because this was what you said then. Now you're saying that you get why it didn't catch on quite as much as the title track did.

[fhas]

Just realized that 1-800-273-8255 was #3 in four of the past seven weeks but its two biggest weeks in points were the two weeks it spent at #4. Funny.

Sep. 30 - 32,700 points (#3)
Oct. 7 - 34,300 points (#4)
Oct. 14 - 34,100 points (#4)
Oct. 21 - 32,600 points (#4)
Oct. 28 - 32,200 points (#3)
Nov. 4 - 31,900 points (#3)
Nov. 11 - 30,700 points (#3)

[Deleted]

Nov 5, 2017 17:52:10 GMT -5 fhas said:

Just realized that 1-800-273-8255 was #3 in four of the past seven weeks but its two biggest weeks in points were the two weeks it spent at #4. Funny.

Sep. 30 - 32,700 points (#3)
Oct. 7 - 34,300 points (#4)
Oct. 14 - 34,100 points (#4)
Oct. 21 - 32,600 points (#4)
Oct. 28 - 32,200 points (#3)
Nov. 4 - 31,900 points (#3)
Nov. 11 - 30,700 points (#3)

Wasn't it because the Hot 100 during some of these times were something like this?

Top 3: Look, Rockstar, Bodak

(All were pretty upholding at the time)

#4 - 1-800

[fhas]

Nov 5, 2017 18:49:00 GMT -5 @statemusix said:

Nov 5, 2017 17:52:10 GMT -5 fhas said:

Just realized that 1-800-273-8255 was #3 in four of the past seven weeks but its two biggest weeks in points were the two weeks it spent at #4. Funny.

Sep. 30 - 32,700 points (#3)
Oct. 7 - 34,300 points (#4)
Oct. 14 - 34,100 points (#4)
Oct. 21 - 32,600 points (#4)
Oct. 28 - 32,200 points (#3)
Nov. 4 - 31,900 points (#3)
Nov. 11 - 30,700 points (#3)

Wasn't it because the Hot 100 during some of these times were something like this?

Top 3: Look, Rockstar, Bodak

(All were pretty upholding at the time)

#4 - 1-800

Yes. These were rockstar's first two weeks, both at #2.

[kcdawg13]

Nov 5, 2017 17:21:46 GMT -5 scrohr424 said:

Jan 26, 2017 13:59:03 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I Feel It Coming is very different from Don't Mind. First of all, it's The Weeknd, an established artist with 3 number-one singles. While Kent Jones was a nobody. I Feel It Coming already has a large radio and streaming presence with some decent sales, compared to Don't Mind, which only had a streaming presence and didn't gain on radio until it had already peaked.

I Feel It Coming is a bonafide smash. It's already predicted to hit the Top 15 next week, and with Starboy falling on all regards, I Feel It Coming will come in and replace it. I have all bets that it'll reach #1 in a few weeks.

If it lacks and doesn't become a huge hit, then I'll accept defeat.

Bringing back this post from January, because this was what you said then. [img src="http://yoursmiles.org/ssmile/fun/s0244.gif" src="//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/tongue.png" alt="" class="smile"] Now you're saying that you get why it didn't catch on quite as much as the title track did.

Opinions change, this was in January when the song wasn't huge yet and I was really into it. Once it had finally peaked and the dust had settled, I finally figured why people liked Starboy more. There's just not a lot of energy compared to the title track.

[scrohr424]

On a different note, based on what I’ve been seeing in the chart threads and predictions… Please tell me that Perfect hasn’t peaked in airplay yet D: I mean it should still be a lock for 2018 but I’m worried it might fall fast.

[Deleted]

I don't think it will fall fast, it still don't have a video, only the lyric one, and it didn't peak in radio yet, though it's gaining slower as it was before, but i think it's set for 2018

[inverse]

Havana is in at #2 so it's gonna make it. This isn't good news for those who want look at me to make the list. (By that I mean it's good news)

[Deleted]

People really hate look at me on this thread, right? I completely support it tho

[Mylo13 💜]

I'm STILL rooting for This Town, but it keeps becoming more unlikely :( Maybe a margain of error will help it?