Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Deleted]

I honestly thought Drip Too Hard would have dropped below the top 10 the week after Lil Baby's album was released. But now we see the song still in the top 10 two weeks after and will probably get a third week or more in the top 10. Not to mention it actually has a shot at the year end list for 2018.

[fhas]

Nov 3, 2018 21:37:43 GMT -5 @delphox said:

I honestly thought Drip Too Hard would have dropped below the top 10 the week after Lil Baby's album was released. But now we see the song still in the top 10 two weeks after and will probably get a third week or more in the top 10. Not to mention it actually has a shot at the year end list for 2018.

And DTH is probably returning to #1 on the On-Demand chart this week after two weeks at #2. It's still #1 on Apple Music and SoundCloud.

[Deleted]

Nov 3, 2018 21:51:32 GMT -5 fhas said:

Nov 3, 2018 21:37:43 GMT -5 @delphox said:

I honestly thought Drip Too Hard would have dropped below the top 10 the week after Lil Baby's album was released. But now we see the song still in the top 10 two weeks after and will probably get a third week or more in the top 10. Not to mention it actually has a shot at the year end list for 2018.

And DTH is probably returning to #1 on the On-Demand chart this week after two weeks at #2. It's still #1 on Apple Music and SoundCloud.

Would you say that it will likely end up on the very bottom of the year end list for 2018?

Also I think any song from Chun Li to Believer might still have a chance of making it due to error in predictions (maybe Beautiful if it gets around Believer's score).

[fhas]

Nov 3, 2018 21:59:33 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Nov 3, 2018 21:51:32 GMT -5 fhas said:

And DTH is probably returning to #1 on the On-Demand chart this week after two weeks at #2. It's still #1 on Apple Music and SoundCloud.

Would you say that it will likely end up on the very bottom of the year end list for 2018?

Also I think any song from Chun Li to Believer might still have a chance of making it due to error in predictions (maybe Beautiful if it gets around Believer's score).

I think it will miss the YE list by less than 10k points but I agree with you that even Believer has a chance to make it, so does DTH even if it's below 180k points in the final prediction.

[brady47]

Omg, IDGAF seems like it'll be #100 on the year end

[brady47]

"Back to You" seems like a lock for #35 (Youngblood will pass it) if it can maintain 3 more weeks in the top 50

Interesting that it will have a similar year end position to "Come & Get It" (#33 year end for 2013) despite peaking at #6

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

^ Then Whatever It Takes is a lock at either #37 or #38 depending on whether SICKO MODE passing it (#38) or not (#37).

[Deleted]

So basically Drip Yoo Hard flew under the radar and could make it maybe.

[woods]

Poor "Chun-Li" looks like it's barely going to miss, deserved Top 100.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Nov 3, 2018 23:31:35 GMT -5 woods said:

Poor "Chun-Li" looks like it's barely going to miss, deserved Top 100.

Chun-Li's points is close to All Girls Are The Same, so if error in points happen, Chun-Li may sneak in and take All Girls Are The Same's spot.

[Deleted]

Hoping All Girls Are The Same can sneak in at #100 😩

[willnower]

Anyone one else find it odd that “I Love It” by Kanye West & Lil Pump has actually performed better internationally than in the US? It debuted and peaked higher in Sweden, Finland, Canada, Australia and the UK among other countries. It also hasn’t been falling on the charts as fast in those countries as in the US. It’s still in the top 20 in Canada, the UK, and Australia whereas in the US, it is almost out of the top 40.

[fhas]

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - November 3rd 2018

Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000

#	+/-	Song	Points	Sales	Airplay	On-Demand	YouTube	Programmed	Total Streams	+/- (%)
1	=	Girls Like You	31,300	17.0k	116.1m	7.9m	11.7m	4.8m	24.5m	-5.1
2	+5	SICKO MODE	30,600	14.0k	58.2m	19.0m	14.3m	5.1m	38.5m	+30.0
3	=	Lucid Dreams	27,700	10.0k	68.2m	14.0m	12.2m	6.2m	32.5m	-0.7
4	+2	Happier	26,800	26.0k	74.6m	13.4m	5.6m	2.5m	21.7m	+11.3
5	-1	Better Now	26,500	15.0k	90.9m	11.0m	4.8m	6.0m	21.8m	-4.5
6	-4	ZEZE	26,400	8.0k	11.2m	26.1m	12.6m	3.4m	42.2m	-19.1
7	+2	Youngblood	23,400	15.0k	95.8m	7.8m	3.3m	2.3m	13.4m	+0.1
8	=	Drip Too Hard	22,600	6.0k	12.3m	25.2m	8.0m	1.2m	34.4m	-3.5
9	NEW	Sunflower	20,000	24.0k	13.2m	17.5m	6.6m	0.0m	24.2m
10	+4	Love Lies	19,900	9.0k	86.3m	6.5m	2.9m	1.9m	11.4m	+3.8

Sources:

Hot 100's article
Billboard Chart Beat
HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand)
HDD's Revenue Chart
Kworb's Overall AI
YouTube Insights
Pandora Top Spins Chart
@chartdata (Twitter)

[fhas]

Highlights of the week:

- Girls Like You: weakest #1 of the Streaming Era (March 2, 2013-present) using raw points (need to use adjusted points for a better comparison -- weakest #1 before this week: GLY 32,300 points - Oct. 13);
- Lucid Dreams: weakest #3 since I began to track the points for all the songs in the top 10 (weakest #3 before this week: Lucid Dreams - 27,700 points - October 27);
- Sunflower: weakest #9 since I began to track the points for all the songs in the top 10 (weakest #9 before this week: Boo'd Up - 20,500 points - August 25);

[fhas]

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - November 3, 2018

[Naos]

So literally, "Drip Too Hard" is only in the Top 10 because of streaming.

[tanooki]

Nov 4, 2018 14:31:13 GMT -5 Naos said:

So literally, "Drip Too Hard" is only in the Top 10 because of streaming.

Precisely 

[fhas]

Nov 4, 2018 14:31:13 GMT -5 Naos said:

So literally, "Drip Too Hard" is only in the Top 10 because of streaming.

It's #2 on the on-demand chart, so it deserves.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

fhas (cool avatar again), is Love Lies the weakest #10 of the year?

[fhas]

Nov 4, 2018 19:53:32 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

fhas (cool avatar again), is Love Lies the weakest #10 of the year?

Second weakest, but it was close. God is a woman's second (and final) week in the top 10 is the weakest with 19,800 points.

pulsemusic.proboards.com/post/6723362/thread

[brady47]

Crazy that "Love Lies" isn't even on Streaming and can make top 10 on the Hot 100 with just airplay

[rockgolf]

fhas : The #10 song has 63% of the points of the #1 song. That seems waaaaaaaay lower than usual.  Is that true?

[fhas]

Nov 4, 2018 20:43:54 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

fhas : The #10 song has 63% of the points of the #1 song. That seems waaaaaaaa lower than usual.  Is that true?

Actually, it's way higher than usual. Since the Oct. 28, 2017 chart (rockstar's 1st week at #1), the average #1 has 52,000 points and the average #10 has 22,700.

22,700 = 43.6% of 52,000

I think this week (Nov. 10) will be the first time in years where the #10 song is less than 10k points below the #1.

[korbel16]

This week will definetly be the weakest number 1 of the streaming era when they reveal it tommorow (probably GLY again)

[fhas]

Nov 4, 2018 20:33:47 GMT -5 brady47 said:

Crazy that "Love Lies" isn't even on Streaming and can make top 10 on the Hot 100 with just airplay

Love Lies had four weeks with more than 19,900 points that weren't enough for top 10. This week, the combination of a small boost in streams thanks to Khalid's EP and a super weak chart gave LL its third week in the top 10.

[Zach]

Nov 4, 2018 20:55:00 GMT -5 fhas said:

Nov 4, 2018 20:43:54 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

fhas : The #10 song has 63% of the points of the #1 song. That seems waaaaaaaa lower than usual.  Is that true?

Actually, it's way higher than usual. Since the Oct. 28, 2017 chart (rockstar's 1st week at #1), the average #1 has 52,000 points and the average #10 has 22,700.

22,700 = 43.6% of 52,000

I think this week (Nov. 10) will be the first time in years where the #10 song is less than 10k points below the #1.

Woah. I knew in terms of raw points the typical #10 these past weeks has been relatively close to the #1 but I didn't think they were that close percentage-wise compared to that longer term average. Interesting.

[tanooki]

How long will the weak top 10 last? I feel like this will be a trend until whatever huge release comes next year (like The Scary Hours EP)

[fhas]

Nov 4, 2018 21:06:20 GMT -5 Zach said:

Nov 4, 2018 20:55:00 GMT -5 fhas said:

Actually, it's way higher than usual. Since the Oct. 28, 2017 chart (rockstar's 1st week at #1), the average #1 has 52,000 points and the average #10 has 22,700.

22,700 = 43.6% of 52,000

I think this week (Nov. 10) will be the first time in years where the #10 song is less than 10k points below the #1.

Woah. I knew in terms of raw points the typical #10 these past weeks has been relatively close to the #1 but I didn't think they were that close percentage-wise compared to that longer term average. Interesting.

Wait... on October 13 (Tha Carter V's week) the #10 (Let It Fly - 22,500) was 9,800 points away from #1 (GLY - 32,300).

That's 69.7% of GLY's points.

[Deleted]

What's caused the top 10 to be so weak lately? Only last year, the entire top 5 were getting over 45k points at times.  Now the #1 is struggling to break 30k. Even streaming seems to have dropped.  I shudder to think how long Shape Of You or Despacito would've ruled that #1 spot in this weak field.  20 weeks?  30?

[tanooki]

Nov 5, 2018 1:13:11 GMT -5 @zach808 said:

What's caused the top 10 to be so weak lately? Only last year, the entire top 5 were getting over 45k points at times.  Now the #1 is struggling to break 30k. Even streaming seems to have dropped.  I shudder to think how long Shape Of You or Despacito would've ruled that #1 spot in this weak field.  20 weeks?  30?

I put blame on the formula change tbh