Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[fhas]

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - November 10th 2018

Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000

#	+/-	Song	Points	Sales	Airplay	On-Demand	YouTube	Programmed	Total Streams	+/- (%)
1	=	Girls Like You	29,800	14.0k	114.2m	7.3m	11.2m	4.5m	23.2m	-4.6
2	=	SICKO MODE	29,200	12.0k	60.1m	19.4m	10.3m	5.6m	35.4m	-4.6
3	+1	Happier	27,700	23.0k	83.3m	13.2m	6.5m	2.5m	22.3m	+3.7
4	-1	Lucid Dreams	26,900	8.9k	67.7m	13.4m	11.9m	6.2m	31.6m	-2.7
5	=	Better Now	24,800	11.3k	87.6m	10.9m	3.5m	6.0m	20.4m	-6.5
6	=	ZEZE	24,700	7.2k	15.3m	22.6m	13.6m	3.2m	39.5m	-6.4
7	=	Youngblood	23,600	14.2k	99.8m	7.4m	3.4m	2.3m	13.1m	+1.1
8	=	Drip Too Hard	22,600	5.5k	13.7m	24.7m	8.1m	1.2m	34.1m	-0.4
9	+3	Without Me	22,400	32.0k	32.6m	14.2m	6.6m	1.8m	22.8m	+19.5
10	+6	Mo Bamba	21,400	10.0k	15.2m	21.6m	7.7m	1.6m	31.1m	+15.3

Sources:

Hot 100's article
Billboard Chart Beat
HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand)
HDD's Revenue Chart
Kworb's Overall AI
YouTube Insights
Pandora Top Spins Chart
@chartdata (Twitter)

[fhas]

Highlights of the week:

- Girls Like You¹: (again and by far the...) weakest #1 of the Streaming Era (March 2, 2013-present) using raw points (need to use adjusted points for a better comparison -- weakest #1 before this week: GLY 31,300 points - Nov. 3);
- Girls Like You²: first song to top the Hot 100 while selling less than 15k this decade (and possibly since early 2005 when only physical sales were counted);
- SICKO MODE: weakest #2 since I began to track the points for all the songs in the top 10 (weakest #3 before this week: Lucid Dreams - 29,800 points - October 20);
- Top 10: This week, the #10 song is 8,450 away from #1 and has 71.66% of GLY's points. That's the closest the top 10 has been this year. Before this week we had two weeks with less than 10k between the first and the last song in the top 10: October 13 - 9,800 points / June 23 - 9,841 points.

[fhas]

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - November 10, 2018

[Deleted]

Why is nobody talking about how I Like Me Better could possibly end up being top 30 with a 27 peak? Impressive.

[brady47]

Nov 11, 2018 11:49:54 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

Why is nobody talking about how I Like Me Better could possibly end up being top 30 with a 27 peak? Impressive.

Woah I had no idea - that's extremely impressive!

With the formula change and streaming dominating, we're going to see more lower peaking hits with relatively higher year end positions

[kcdawg13]

Nov 11, 2018 11:49:54 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

Why is nobody talking about how I Like Me Better could possibly end up being top 30 with a 27 peak? Impressive.

Felt like a #1 hits with how many times I have heard it on the radio

[korbel16]

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Havana at #3? Nice For What and Finesse in the top 10? New Rules at #11? In My Feelings that low? Thunder and Look Alive that high? I'm not sure about this.

[Deleted]

It really looks like that the songs at the start of the year are being way more favored to Simon.

[roman1166]

after the new calculations simon gave every song much lower points so it's not surprising how he had all those new songs / songs with longevity that stayed after the change relatively low on his prediction for the year-end

[tanooki]

Does Simon base this off his predictions or does he try to calculate the points after the fact?

[Deleted]

How does he have some country songs like Singles You Up and Five More Minutes making it but not songs like Mercy and Simple?

[samo🦕]

^^^ all of this. Yeah, songs at the beginning of the year were typically getting more points, but the difference isn't that big.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Sometimes he tends to forget about including some songs, which might be the case here. Clearly, the latter two will likely make it, while the former two don't have a chance.

[tallen2001]

I completely forgot Singles You Up and Five More Minutes even existed.

[inverse]

Ok I’m just over here like how do you have Dura at 78, X at 87, and Te Bote at 90 how can you mess those up that badly?

[tallen2001]

Nov 12, 2018 13:29:39 GMT -5 inverse said:

Ok I’m just over here like how do you have Dura at 78, X at 87, and Te Bote at 90 how can you mess those up that badly?

Even Outside Today was higher up than I figured it’d be.

[velaxti]

Nov 12, 2018 8:28:25 GMT -5 roman1166 said:

after the new calculations simon gave every song much lower points so it's not surprising how he had all those new songs / songs with longevity that stayed after the change relatively low on his prediction for the year-end

This actually happened on one of the real Billboard year-end charts that they published. In 2012 they had a big formula change part way through the year, and on the year-end charts songs from before the change were lower down than most people expected whilst songs from after the change were higher up than most people expected, so obviously Billboard were just adding all the points together and not making adjustments to take into account the formula change.

[CF15]

Nov 12, 2018 5:42:31 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

That means there is still hope for "Nice For What" to finish in the top ten? Or is this less accurate than the one in this Pulse thread. This does have "Finesse" a lot higher than in this thread's predictions, so I don't know...

[samo🦕]

Nov 12, 2018 16:01:20 GMT -5 CF15 said:

Nov 12, 2018 5:42:31 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

That means there is still hope for "Nice For What" to finish in the top ten? Or is this less accurate than the one in this Pulse thread. This does have "Finesse" a lot higher than in this thread's predictions, so I don't know...

Considering that the 5 songs above it in fhas' predictions are all still gaining points (and already have a decent lead on NFW), I'd say it'll probably be at #11 on the year-end. The main issue with Simon's predictions is that he's massively underestimated In My Feelings' points.

[rockgolf]

Nov 12, 2018 7:14:33 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

It really looks like that the songs at the start of the year are being way more favored to Simon.

Songs from the beginning of the year also have way more opportunity to get points. I predicted in mid-January of this year that both Perfect and Havana would be in the top 5 of the year. (I whiffed on Meant To Be, which was also charting at the time.) So Simon is probably pretty close.

[tanooki]

Here are my predictions up to this week, will finish next week for my final list


1. God's Plan 12557

2. Perfect 11983

3. Meant to Be 9402

4. Havana 9076

5. rockstar 8601

6. Psycho 8334

7. I Like It 8007

8. In My Feelings 7566

9. Girls Like You 7193

10. The Middle 6965

11. Nice For What 6687

12. Lucid Dreams 5986

13. Better Now 5818

14. New Rules 5612

15. Finesse 5533

16. Boo'd Up 5381

17. Never Be the Same 5358

18. Mine 5312

19. SAD! 5286

20. Love Lies 5104

21. No Tears Left to Cry 5003

22. Thunder 5001

23. Look Alive 4918

24. Delicate 4906

25. Yes Indeed 4887

26. Taste 4861

27. Bad At Love 4794

28. FRIENDS 4780

29. No Limit 4753

30. FEFE 4651

31. Let You Down 4612

32. I Like Me Better 4497

33. Motorsport 4464

34. Tequila 4540

35. Ric Flair Drip 4481

36. Youngblood 4395

37. Whatever It Takes 4367

38. Feel It Still 4280

39. Pray For Me 4056

40. Back To You 3985

41. I Fall Apart 3629

42. In My Blood 3610

43. Gucci Gang 3597

44. Walk It Talk It 3523

45. All the Stars 3418

46. SICKO MODE 3375

47. Him & I 3314

48. Stir Fry 3202

49. This Is America 3132

50. LOVE. 3005

51. Nonstop 2989

52. Heaven 2950

53. Too Good At Goodbyes 2914

54. GUMMO 2865

55. Plug Walk 2862

56. Be Careful 2839

57. Freaky Friday 2801

58. Wait 2683

59. Bodak Yellow 2654

60. Wolves 2645

61. God is a woman 2632

62. Big Bank 2613

63. How Long 2600

64. Sorry Not Sorry 2592

65. Bartier Cardi 2588

66. One Kiss 2532

67. Young, Dumb & Broke 2445

68. Natural 2413

69. Shape of You 2409

70. Lights Down Low 2393

71. You Make It Easy 2364

72. Skywalker 2350

73. I Get The Bag 2299

74. Te Bote 2218

75. Marry Me 2198

76. Simple 2169

77. No Brainer 2104

78. Call Out My Name 2044

79. Get Along 2041

80. Plain Jane 2015

81. Eastside 2003

82. Moonlight 1998

83. Lemon 1984

84. King's Dead 1970

85. 1-800-273-8255 1954

86. I'm Upset 1953

87. Happier 1947

88. X (Equis) 1936

89. What Lovers Do 1902

90. Changes 1886

91. One Number Away 1885

92. Mercy 1864

93. Say Something 1831

94. Outside Today 1796

95. IDGAF 1753

96. Dura 1747

97. Trip 1710

98. All Girls Are the Same 1685

99. Powerglide 1647

100. APESHIT 1620

--
101. Chun Li 1616

102. Believer 1601

103. New Freezer 1585

104. I'm A Mess 1573

105. Mi Gente 1559

[rainie]

Why are songs making the YE list with weaker and weaker chart runs? Obv I know it’s based off points and nothing is final for this year anyways, but this has got to be the first year when songs that peaked in the mid 40s or even 50s with a pretty average chart run (ie AGATS, IDGAF, Dura, etc) are looking like they’ll make it. Are songs just making the YE list with less and less points?

As weird as it feels to have songs like New Freezer in the conversation, I guess the silver lining is that Powerglide and APESHIT may actually have a chance to sneak in.

[narp]

Was there some kind of formula change? Year end charts have always been top 30 hits with an occasional bottom 30 entry. If a song can peak at 36 or 38 or even 40 and make it on the year end, anything can happen. My predictions: lovelytheband’s broken will score a bottom 80s or higher position, Happier will get into the top 40 at least. High Hopes can probably squeeze into the bottom 50 if it reaches past 20 weeks chart run, The Middle is definitely going top 40, Girls Like You and In My Feelings are almost definitely top 10, if not top 15.

[Deleted]

Nov 13, 2018 19:47:49 GMT -5 narp said:

Was there some kind of formula change? Year end charts have always been top 30 hits with an occasional bottom 30 entry. If a song can peak at 36 or 38 or even 40 and make it on the year end, anything can happen. My predictions: lovelytheband’s broken will score a bottom 80s or higher position, Happier will get into the top 40 at least. High Hopes can probably squeeze into the bottom 50 if it reaches past 20 weeks chart run, The Middle is definitely going top 40, Girls Like You and In My Feelings are almost definitely top 10, if not top 15.

There's only like one or two weeks left in this charting year. Billboard ends and starts their years early. 


Also all the songs I bolded are locked for the top 10 as of now

[kcdawg13]

God’s Plan sitting pretty at #1 where it belongs

[tanooki]

Nov 13, 2018 19:47:49 GMT -5 narp said:

Was there some kind of formula change? Year end charts have always been top 30 hits with an occasional bottom 30 entry. If a song can peak at 36 or 38 or even 40 and make it on the year end, anything can happen. My predictions: lovelytheband’s broken will score a bottom 80s or higher position, Happier will get into the top 40 at least. High Hopes can probably squeeze into the bottom 50 if it reaches past 20 weeks chart run, The Middle is definitely going top 40, Girls Like You and In My Feelings are almost definitely top 10, if not top 15.

Yes. July 14 was the date, sales and radio were weighed a little heavier and streaming was split based on if it was a free or paid stream

[inverse]

Nov 13, 2018 18:42:27 GMT -5 rainie said:

Why are songs making the YE list with weaker and weaker chart runs? Obv I know it’s based off points and nothing is final for this year anyways, but this has got to be the first year when songs that peaked in the mid 40s or even 50s with a pretty average chart run (ie AGATS, IDGAF, Dura, etc) are looking like they’ll make it. Are songs just making the YE list with less and less points?

As weird as it feels to have songs like New Freezer in the conversation, I guess the silver lining is that Powerglide and APESHIT may actually have a chance to sneak in.

I think the biggest thing that happened is just a shift in the way we listen to music. Previously there was alot more turnover, a song would peak, move down by 3 to 7 spots per week post peak, and then fall off, leading to more songs entering the top part of the charts and higher cutoffs. Of course you'd have your occasional Here Without You or Paralyzer or Party Rock Anthem that pulled some sort of ridiculous stunt but they were the standouts and exceptions.

Lately there have been a few big hits that stick around and last forever with ridiculous 20-week periods from peak to recurrent and little movement whatsoever. Like just this year you have

Perfect
Meant To Be
Delicate
I Like Me Better
The Middle
Tequila
Love Lies
Lucid Dreams
Better Now
Girls Like You
Psycho
Never Be The Same
Nonstop (this one is ridiculous it's literally one of the random album bomb songs and it's gonna get over 20 weeks)
Sad!
Yes Indeed

These are just songs that I got from one glance over at only the july 28 hot 100. The thing these songs all have in common is that they would just never leave, they had aimless falls with frequent instances where they just floated up. And so they monopolize the lion's share of the points in a way that you didn't see before


That's just half the problem. Then there's the other extreme, this year there have been sooooo many songs that had brief stays high up then plummeted. Ridiculously long list of songs that hit the top 20 then flopped hard coming up. What this does is "wastes" a bunch of top 20 weeks and that wasn't really happening before, in previous years this list would be nowhere near as long. (I'll do this for 2015 too to compare). So anything with any sort of traction in the top 50 at any point is all of a sudden a contender like even Dura.

Songs with brief stays in the top 20 for 2018:
Walk On Water
End Game
All I Want For Christmas Is You 
River
Filthy
Diplomatic Immunity
Say Something (contender)
Call Out My Name (confirmed)
Chun-Li (contender)
ATM
Kevin's Heart
KOD
Photograph
Motiv8
1985 (Intro To The Fall Off)
Paranoid
Rich & Sad
Spoil My Night
Ball For Me
Stay
Same Bitches
This Is America (Confirmed)
Watch
Fake Love
I'm Upset (confirmed)
Yikes
All Mine
Ghost Town
Apeshit (contender)
Emotionless
Don't Matter To Me
Mob Ties
Elevate
Survival
Can't Take A Joke
Talk Up
No Brainer (confirmed)
Stargazing
Barbie Dreams
Idol
Kamikaze
Fall
The Ringer
Lucky You
Rap Devil
I Love It (contender)
Killshot
Falling Down
5
to 
7
Lil Wayne
songs
Never Recover

yeah those add up pretty fast. Here's the list of songs like this from just 3 years ago by comparison
The Hanging Tree (#78 year end)
Wasted Love
I Want You To Know
All Day
Focus
Tennessee Whiskey

pretty vast difference. Finally the cherry on the cake is that this year there seems to be more than usual a bunch of top 10 hits that if they got their full chart run would make it but aren't gonna hit the year end this year making the cutoff all the more ridiculously low
ZEZE
Shallow
Without Me
MIA
thank u next
Mo Bamba (maybe)
Drip Too Hard (maybe)
High Hopes (maybe)

every year has these of course but 8 is more than usual. In 2015 it was only Sorry. So yeah despite the 53 week year 2018 was like a perfect storm of small #91-100 factors

[tallen2001]

I can see all those bottom songs except for maybe Shallow and MIA making next years YE list too.

[kcdawg13]

We're in the end game my friends