Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2018 17:16:44 GMT -5
With Drip Too Hard likely to make #100 on the year end list, I guess Lil Baby is an actual thing now.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2018 19:13:21 GMT -5
Why is the difference so big between your all time chart and the hot 100? |
|
tanooki
Diamond Member
2019 Breakthrough
lucia gta 6
Joined: August 2017
Posts: 10,118
Pronouns: they/she/fae
|
Post by tanooki on Nov 17, 2018 19:28:39 GMT -5
With Drip Too Hard likely to make #100 on the year end list, I guess Lil Baby is an actual thing now. im okay with this |
|
owenlovesmusic
4x Platinum Member
Always 100
Joined: December 2017
Posts: 4,998 
|
Post by owenlovesmusic on Nov 17, 2018 20:25:57 GMT -5
With Drip Too Hard likely to make #100 on the year end list, I guess Lil Baby is an actual thing now. Of course! He’s had to top 10s this year and an album with 100K+ first week SPS. |
|
rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,126
Pronouns: he/him/his
|
Post by rockgolf on Nov 17, 2018 20:39:00 GMT -5
Why is the difference so big between your all time chart and the hot 100? I don't know. Even small differences in points at that level can effect position by dozens. |
|
hydraflare
Gold Member
RIP Juice WRLD
Joined: January 2018
Posts: 740
|
Post by hydraflare on Nov 17, 2018 20:47:00 GMT -5
Songs on the 2018 year-end that will make 2019:
Happier
Girls Like You
Sicko Mode
Lucid Dreams
Potentially Drip Too Hard, High Hopes and Mo Bamba could also make both year-ends, but the latter two will likely only make 2019 and Drip Too Hard might not make either.
|
|
|
|
Post by crackleking on Nov 17, 2018 20:57:36 GMT -5
Do you think it’s possible psycho survives next weeks hot 100 despite being at 48 and becomes 5th on the year end list?
|
|
𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 10,809
My Charts
|
Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Nov 17, 2018 21:04:57 GMT -5
Which songs are at risk at getting caught between years?
|
|
korbel16
Platinum Member
Joined: September 2017
Posts: 1,908
|
Post by korbel16 on Nov 17, 2018 21:09:59 GMT -5
Oh s**t IMF & GLY are gunna leap over the middle next week and push it to number 10.. dam so it might be 8. GLY 9. IMF & 10. The middle. Although it can very much change depending on billboard. Because they are VERY close in points tbh
|
|
𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 10,809
My Charts
|
Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Nov 17, 2018 21:20:01 GMT -5
Do you think it’s possible psycho survives next weeks hot 100 despite being at 48 and becomes 5th on the year end list? It's possible. |
|
|
|
Post by holyground13 on Nov 17, 2018 22:45:34 GMT -5
Interesting to see that Delicate is going to finish in the Top 25 and only a couple of spots below a lead single like NTLTC, despite being a fourth single and not peaking in the Top 10. Delicate really did have an amazing chart run.
|
|
hydraflare
Gold Member
RIP Juice WRLD
Joined: January 2018
Posts: 740
|
Post by hydraflare on Nov 17, 2018 23:29:51 GMT -5
fhas could you add 5 More Minutes and Roll In Peace?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2018 23:52:19 GMT -5
Which songs are at risk at getting caught between years? Beautiful, Ring and Shallow are almost a guarantee at this point. MIA and Wake Up In The Sky also have moderate chances of being caught between years. If Drip Too Hard doesn't make the 2018 YE, perhaps it could be caught between years as well, although I wouldn't really count on it. |
|
𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 10,809
My Charts
|
Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Nov 18, 2018 0:05:44 GMT -5
Which songs are at risk at getting caught between years? Beautiful, Ring and Shallow are almost a guarantee at this point. MIA and Wake Up In The Sky also have moderate chances of being caught between years. If Drip Too Hard doesn't make the 2018 YE, perhaps it could be caught between years as well, although I wouldn't really count on it. Wake Up In The Sky may get into 2019 YE if it keeps up with the run it has right now, especially the album of Gucci Mane covering Wake Up In The Sky could be released would be released by next month. But to see Beautiful possibly getting caught between years, that is just sad :'( |
|
atg
3x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 3,004
|
Post by atg on Nov 18, 2018 0:27:43 GMT -5
Which songs are at risk at getting caught between years? - Mo Bamba - Beautiful - Drip Too Hard - MIA - Shallow |
|
dynamac
Charting
Joined: September 2017
Posts: 338
|
Post by dynamac on Nov 18, 2018 1:04:35 GMT -5
Which songs are at risk at getting caught between years? If I love it had all of its chart points in one year it probably climbs in |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2018 2:54:23 GMT -5
I completely forgot about I Love It but that song is definitely getting caught between years so no doubt about it.
|
|
𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 10,809
My Charts
|
Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Nov 18, 2018 5:17:58 GMT -5
Which songs are at risk at getting caught between years? - Mo Bamba - Beautiful - Drip Too Hard- MIA - Shallow Drip Too Hard has a possibility of sneaking 2018 YE, while the other four would sadly get caught between years. |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2018 12:57:08 GMT -5
I think Mo Bamba has a good chance at reaching the 2019 YE list. Same goes with High Hopes, another song with a similar chart run.
|
|
|
|
Post by Naos on Nov 18, 2018 13:03:43 GMT -5
With Drip Too Hard likely to make #100 on the year end list, I guess Lil Baby is an actual thing now. Desiigner had a song at #99 on the year-end list after "Panda", and only had one song in the Top 40 since ("MIC Drop"), so I wouldn't say Lil Baby is a thing yet. He can easily fade out in a year like him. |
|
fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
|
Post by fhas on Nov 18, 2018 13:07:30 GMT -5
LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - November 17th 2018Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000 | # | +/- | Song | Points | Sales | Airplay | On-Demand | YouTube | Programmed | Total Streams | +/- (%) | | 1 | NEW | thank u, next | 48,700 | 81.0k | 11.3m | 44.6m | 10.8m | 0.0m | 55.5m | | | 2 | -1 | Girls Like You | 28,700 | 12.8k | 109.3m | 6.8m | 11.0m | 4.8m | 22.8m | -3.9 | | 3 | -1 | SICKO MODE | 28,500 | 11.8k | 59.0m | 18.1m | 11.4m | 5.2m | 34.8m | -2.1 | | 4 | -1 | Happier | 28,500 | 24.1k | 90.6m | 12.8m | 5.5m | 3.7m | 22.0m | +2.8 | | 5 | -1 | Lucid Dreams | 26,500 | 8.6k | 68.2m | 12.6m | 12.1m | 6.2m | 31.0m | -1.4 | | 6 | +3 | Without Me | 25,300 | 34.0k | 41.3m | 15.5m | 7.3m | 2.2m | 25.2m | +13.1 | | 7 | -2 | Better Now | 23,500 | 10.4k | 82.6m | 10.5m | 3.0m | 6.0m | 19.6m | -5.2 | | 8 | -2 | ZEZE | 23,400 | 7.2k | 19.6m | 19.9m | 13.0m | 3.2m | 36.2m | -5.4 | | 9 | +1 | Mo Bamba | 22,800 | 9.8k | 17.3m | 21.3m | 10.8m | 1.6m | 33.8m | +6.6 | | 10 | -2 | Drip Too Hard | 22,700 | 5.7k | 16.5m | 22.3m
| 10.5m | 1.8m | 34.7m | +0.7 |
Sources: Hot 100's article Billboard Chart Beat HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand) HDD's Revenue Chart Kworb's Overall AI YouTube Insights Pandora Top Spins Chart @chartdata (Twitter)
|
|
fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
|
Post by fhas on Nov 18, 2018 13:07:54 GMT -5
Highlights of the week:
- thank u, next: weakest #1 debut of the Streaming Era using raw points;
- thank u, next vs. Girls Like You: 20,000 lead in points - biggest lead over the #2 song since In My Feelings' 30,366 points lead over GLY on the August 25 dated chart;
- Girls Like You: weakest #2 since I began to track the points for all the songs in the top 10 (weakest #2 before this week: SICKO MODE - 29,200 points - November 10);
|
|
fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
|
Post by fhas on Nov 18, 2018 13:09:34 GMT -5
Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - November 17, 2018
|
|
owenlovesmusic
4x Platinum Member
Always 100
Joined: December 2017
Posts: 4,998
|
Post by owenlovesmusic on Nov 18, 2018 13:17:15 GMT -5
With Drip Too Hard likely to make #100 on the year end list, I guess Lil Baby is an actual thing now. Desiigner had a song at #99 on the year-end list after "Panda", and only had one song in the Top 40 since ("MIC Drop"), so I wouldn't say Lil Baby is a thing yet. He can easily fade out in a year like him. Lil Baby makes good music and Desiigner made bad music. Lil Baby - 2 top 10s Desiigner - 1 hit wonder Lil Baby - successful albums with 125K sales week Desiigner - top sales week - 16K. |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2018 13:18:19 GMT -5
Desiigner had a song at #99 on the year-end list after "Panda", and only had one song in the Top 40 since ("MIC Drop"), so I wouldn't say Lil Baby is a thing yet. He can easily fade out in a year like him. Lil Baby makes good music and Desiigner made bad music. Except that Desiigners songs are actually great while Lil Babys sucks. |
|
|
|
Post by Naos on Nov 18, 2018 13:34:05 GMT -5
Desiigner had a song at #99 on the year-end list after "Panda", and only had one song in the Top 40 since ("MIC Drop"), so I wouldn't say Lil Baby is a thing yet. He can easily fade out in a year like him. Lil Baby makes good music and Desiigner made bad music. Lil Baby - 2 top 10s Desiigner - 1 hit wonder Lil Baby - successful albums with 125K sales week Desiigner - top sales week - 16K. If we're going by year-end list placements... No. Desiigner has two. He also has three Top 40 hits. And funny, because I see a lot of parallels. Desiigner is a rip-off of Future, while Lil Baby is a rip-off of Young Thug. Except Desiigner does Future's schtick better for actually having energy and not just descending into boring nihilism. Whereas Lil Baby is Young Thug who isn't interesting. |
|
owenlovesmusic
4x Platinum Member
Always 100
Joined: December 2017
Posts: 4,998
|
Post by owenlovesmusic on Nov 18, 2018 13:52:46 GMT -5
Lil Baby makes good music and Desiigner made bad music. Lil Baby - 2 top 10s Desiigner - 1 hit wonder Lil Baby - successful albums with 125K sales week Desiigner - top sales week - 16K. If we're going by year-end list placements... No. Desiigner has two. He also has three Top 40 hits. And funny, because I see a lot of parallels. Desiigner is a rip-off of Future, while Lil Baby is a rip-off of Young Thug. Except Desiigner does Future's schtick better for actually having energy and not just descending into boring nihilism. Whereas Lil Baby is Young Thug who isn't interesting. This is only the first year of Lil Baby's career so we'll see. |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2018 14:30:18 GMT -5
If Drowns The Whiskey rebounds and gets a 20th week on the last Billboard week of 2018, that would put it at about 178K points on fhas' point system. That means it might have a small chance to make the Billboard 2018 year end list due to error.
|
|
fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
|
Post by fhas on Nov 18, 2018 14:53:52 GMT -5
fhas could you add 5 More Minutes and Roll In Peace? I'll add them next week. |
|
nick64
Diamond Member
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 14,441
|
Post by nick64 on Nov 18, 2018 15:07:51 GMT -5
fhas could you add 5 More Minutes and Roll In Peace? I'll add them next week. Will you be able to post the Top 200 that previous predictors have at the end of the year, or do you not have all of the information compiled? No worries at all if you don’t, your work is extemely appreciated. |
|
