Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[propanda]

Am I the only one who is shocked to not see I Lived It on any top 200 lists?


It had a p. respectable chart run, survived Scorpion, lasted 19 weeks, and if irc, at the 26 week mark, it one was p. close to reaching consideration, what happened?

[rimetm]

Nov 21, 2018 22:03:39 GMT -5 propanda said:

Am I the only one who is shocked to not see I Lived It on any top 200 lists?


It had a p. respectable chart run, survived Scorpion, lasted 19 weeks, and if irc, at the 26 week mark, it one was p. close to reaching consideration, what happened?

It peaked in the top 70 and didn’t make the 20 week mark, the thing with sleeper hits is that they stick around for longer than 20 to make up for their low peaks, so I Lived It did neither thing it needed to reach consideration.

[kierz7]

Will "Thank U, Next..." make the 2018 Y/E charts, albeit in a very low ranking position? Or will it just be an automatic number-one (for now) at the start of the 2019 chart year?

[amore]

Nov 22, 2018 7:19:35 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Will "Thank U, Next..." make the 2018 Y/E charts, albeit in a very low ranking position? Or will it just be an automatic number-one (for now) at the start of the 2019 chart year?

It will definitely make it if it can hold its #1 position for a few more weeks. With the new video and gains on radio, it should stick around for at least 6 more weeks minimum.

[rimetm]

Nov 22, 2018 8:09:00 GMT -5 amore said:

Nov 22, 2018 7:19:35 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Will "Thank U, Next..." make the 2018 Y/E charts, albeit in a very low ranking position? Or will it just be an automatic number-one (for now) at the start of the 2019 chart year?

It will definitely make it if it can hold its #1 position for a few more weeks. With the new video and gains on radio, it should stick around for at least 6 more weeks minimum.

But it only has the past two weeks counting towards the 2018 year end, hence his question. The answer, by the way, is a definite no, even with how it’s done, it didn’t even get halfway to the point barrier.

As to 2019, depends on if it plays the margins right. If it falls harder than expected, then Happier or Without Me could be the first leader of the running YE.

[rockgolf]

The Billboard year-end is over. It finishes based on the last week-ending date of a November chart and this week's chart was dated Nov. 24. 

The next Hot 100 will be dated Week ending December 1, 2018, and for one week, that will also be the running top 100 of Billboard 2019. So in all probability Ariana will have the #1 song of 2019 for at least one week, and I expect a lot longer.

(So, no, Thank U, Next will not make the 2018 top 100. It probably will make the the DJ Earworm 2018 United State of Pop megamix, if that's any consolation.)

[mikerivera]

Y’all don’t know me, but I’ve been keeping track of the chart all year long. This is my 2018 Billboard Year End Hot 100 Projection

1. God’s Plan-Drake (+6,965)
2. Perfect-Ed Sheeran (+6,855)
3. Meant to Be-Bebe Rexha & Florida Georgia Line (+5,201)
4. Havana-Camila Cabello ft. Young Thug (+4,840)
5. Psycho-Post Malone ft. Ty Dolla $ign (+4,796)
6. Rockstar-Post Malone ft. 21 Savage (+4,539)
7. I Like It-Cardi B ft. Bad Bunny & J Balvin (+4,454)
8. In My Feelings-Drake (+4,362)
9. Girls Like You-Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B (+4,260)
10. The Middle-Zedd, Maren Morris & Grey (+4,132)
11. Nice for What-Drake (+4,008)
12. Lucid Dreams-Juice WRLD (+3,676)
13. Better Now-Post Malone (+3,634)
14. Sad!-XXXTentacion (+3,152)
15. Boo’d Up-Ella Mai (+3,145)
16. Finesse-Bruno Mars & Cardi B (+3,040)
17. Never Be the Same-Camila Cabello (+2,948)
18. New Rules-Dua Lipa (+2,917)
19. Mine-Bazzi (+2,916)
20. Love Lies-Normani & Khalid (+2,911)
21. Look Alive-BlocBoy JB ft. Drake (+2,750)
22. Thunder-Imagine Dragons (+2,684)
23. No Tears Left to Cry-Ariana Grande (+2,681)
24. Delicate-Taylor Swift (+2,491)
25. Yes Indeed-Lil Baby & Drake (+2,428)
26. Bad at Love-Halsey (+2,247)
27. Friends-Marshmello & Anne-Marie (+2,242)
28. Taste-Tyga ft. Offset (+2,222)
29. Tequila-Dan+Shay (+2,124)
30. YoungBlood-5 Seconds of Summer (+2,062)
31. FeFe-6ix9ine ft. Nicki Minaj & Murda Beatz (+2,057)
32. Sicko Mode-Travis Scott (+2,040)
33. Let You Down-NF (+2,019)
34. No Limit-G Eazy ft. A$AP Rocky & Cardi B (+2,014)
35. Back to You-Selena Gomez (+2,007)
36. I Like Me Better-Lauv (+1,958)
37. Whatever it Takes-Imagine Dragons (+1,942)
38. Feel it Still-Portugal. The Man (+1,903)
39. MotorSport-Migos, Cardi B & Nicki Minaj (+1,902)
40. Ric Flair Drip-Offset & Metro Boomin (+1,857)
41. Nonstop-Drake (+1,835)
42. Pray for Me-Kendrick Lamar & The Weeknd (+1,795)
43. I Fall Apart-Post Malone (+1,792)
44. Gucci Gang-Lil Pump (+1,774)
45. Walk it Talk It-Migos ft. Drake (+1,773)
46. In My Blood-Shawn Mendes (+1,747)
47. This is America-Childish Gambino (+1,725)
48. Him & I-G Eazy ft. Halsey (+1,690)
49. Heaven-Kane Brown (+1,683)
50. Too Good at Goodbyes-Sam Smith (+1,659)
51. Love-Kendrick Lamar ft. Zacari (+1,658)
52. All the Stars-Kendrick Lamar & SZA (+1,611)
53. God is a Woman-Ariana Grande (+1,610)
54. Big Bank-YG ft. 2 Chainz, Big Sean & Nicki Minaj (+1,593)
55. Bodak Yellow-Cardi B (+1,563)
56. Stir Fry-Migos (+1,532)
57. Freaky Friday-Lil Dicky ft. Chris Brown (+1,523)
58. Gummo-6ix9ine (+1,522)
59. Be Careful-Cardi B (+1,502)
60. Plug Walk-Rich the Kid (+1,501)
61. Wolves-Marshmello & Selena Gomez (+1,479)
62. Wait-Maroon 5 (+1,477)
63. Natural-Imagine Dragons (+1,445)
64. Bartier Cardi-Cardi B ft. 21 Savage (+1,408)
65. How Long-Charlie Puth (+1,393)
66. Sorry Not Sorry-Demi Lovato (+1,368)
67. Lights Down Low-MAX ft. gnash (+1,355)
68. One Kiss-Calvin Harris ft. Dua Lipa (+1,334)
69. Young, Dumb & Broke-Khalid (+1,328)
70. Eastside-Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid (+1,325)
71. Happier-Marshmello & Bastille (+1,317)
72. You Make it Easy-Jason Aldean (+1,223)
73. Shape of You-Ed Sheeran (+1,178)
74. Simple-Florida Georgia Line (+1,177)
75. I Get the Bag-Gucci Mane ft. Migos (+1,166)
76. No Brainer-DJ Khaled ft. Justin Bieber, Chance the Rapper & Quavo (+1,165)
77. Sky Walker-Miguel ft. Travis Scott (+1,164)
78. Te Bote-Casper Mágico, Nio García, Darell, Nicky Jam, Ozuna, Bad Bunny (+1,158)
70. Plain Jane-A$AP Ferg (+1,141)
80. Trip-Ella Mai (+1,124)
81. Marry Me-Thomas Rhett (+1,107)
82. Lemon-NERD & Rihanna (+1,048)
83. 1-800-273-8255-Logic ft. Alessia Cara & Khalid (+1,033)
84. I’m Upset-Drake (+1,026)
85. Get Along-Kenny Chesney (+1,023)
86. King’s Dead-Jay Rock, Kendrick Lamar, Future & James Blake (+1,006)
87. X-Nicky Jam x J Balvin (+989)
88. I’m a Mess-Bebe Rexha (+980)
89. Call Out My Name-The Weeknd (+978)
90. Drip Too Hard-Lil Baby & Gunna (+972)
91. Say Something-Justin Timberlake ft. Chris Stapleton (+965)
92. Broken-lovelytheband (+961)
93. What Lovers Do-Maroon 5 ft. SZA (+958)
94. Mercy-Brett Young (+943)
95. One Number Away-Luke Combs (+937)
96. Moonlight-XXXTentacion (+929)
97. Outside Today-YoungBoy Never Broke Again (+901)
98. Dura-Daddy Yankee (+887)
99. Mo Bamba-Sheck Wes (+886)
100. Believer-Imagine Dragons (+885)

101. Beautiful-Bazzi ft. Camila Cabello (+875)
102. Apeshit-The Carters (+874)
103. Changes-XXXTentacion (+873)
104. Mi Gente-J Balvin & Willy William (+868)
105. Powerglide-Rae Sremmurd & Juicy J (+840)
106. Chun Li-Nicki Minaj (+839)
107. I Love It-Kanye West & Lil Pump (+834)
108. All Girls are the Same-Juice WRLD (+821)
109. High Hopes-Panic! At the Disco (+819)
110. Ring-Cardi B ft. Kehlani (+801)
111. Bank Account-21 Savage (+799)
112. New Freezer-Rich the Kid ft. Kendrick Lamar (+794)
113. The Way Life Goes-Lil Uzi Vert ft. Oh Wonder (+785)
114. River-Eminem ft. Ed Sheeran (+776)
115. Breathin-Ariana Grande (+766)
116. Let Me Go-Hailee Steinfeld & Alesso ft. Florida Georgia Line & watt (+764)
117. Good Old Days-Macklemore ft. Kesha (+736)
118. Roll in Peace-Kodak Black ft. XXXTentacion (+735)
119. IDGAF-Dua Lipa (+734)
120. Drowns the Whiskey-Jason Aldean ft. Miranda Lambert (+731)
121. Sit Next to Me-Foster the People (+718)
122. End Game-Taylor Swift ft. Future & Ed Sheeran (+712)
123. Attention-Charlie Puth (+699)
124. Japan-Famous Dex (+697)
125. Shallow-Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper (+682)
126. Unforgettable-French Montana ft. Swae Lee (+681)
127. Jackie Chan-Tiesto & Dzecko ft. Preme & Post Malone (+680)
128. Zeze-Kodak Black ft. Travis Scott & Offset (+675)
129. Without Me-Halsey (+663)
130. Despacito-Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee (+662)
131. Up Down-Morgan Wallen ft. Florida Georgia Line (+659)
132. She Got the Best of Me-Luke Combs (+658)
133. Sunrise, Sunburn, Sunset-Luke Bryan (+647)
134. Hotel Key-Old Dominion (+644)
135. Wake Up in the Sky-Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black (+641)
136. The Weekend-SZA (+633)
137. Taki Taki-DJ Snake ft. Selena Gomez, Osuna & Cardi B (+629)
138. Most People are Good-Luke Bryan (+628)
139. Yours-Russell Dickerson (+618)
140. Life Changes-Thomas Rhett (+614)
141. You Say-Lauren Daigle (+613)
142. Silence-Marshmello ft. Khalid (+604)
143. Candy Paint-Post Malone (+600)
144. Pick it Up-Famous Dex ft. A$AP Rocky (+599)
145. Five More Minutes-Scotty McCreery (+578)
146. Lucky You-Eminem ft. Lucas Joyner (+573)
147. That’s What I Like-Bruno Mars (+568)
148. Ball for Me-Post Malone ft. Nicki Minaj (+565)
149. Betrayed-Lil Xan (+564)
150. Medicine-Queen Naija (+562)
151. Lose It-Kane Brown (+556)
152. KOD-J. Cole (+547)
153. Pills & Automobiles-Chris Brown (+544)
154. Like I Loved You-Brett Young (+542)
155. Singles You Up-Jordan Davis (+540)
156. Uproar-Lil Wayne (+539)
157. Broken Halos-Chris Stapleton (+538)
158. Drew Barrymore-Brice Vine (+535)
159. Tell Me You Love Me-Demi Lovato (+532)
160. MIA-Bad Bunny ft. Drake (+525)
161. Eskeetit-Lil Pump (+524)
162. Written in the Sand-Old Dominion (+513)
163. Rubbin Off the Paint-YBN Nahmir (+512)
164. Greatest Love Story-LANCO (+511)
165. Échame La Culpa-Luis Fonsi & Demi Lovato (+510)
166. Ready For It-Taylor Swift (+507)
167. Killshot-Eminem (+504)
168. El Farsante-Ozuna & Romeo Santos (+492)
169. Thank U, Next-Ariana Grande (+490)
170. Africa-Weezer (+489)
171. No Excuses-Meghan Trainor (+482)
172. What About Us-P!nk (+469)
173. Blue Tacoma-Russell Dickerson (+461)
174. Break Up in the End-Cole Swindell (+448)
175. Lie-NF (+447)
176. Smile (Living My Best Life)-Lil Duval ft. Snoop Dogg & Ball Greezy (+446)
177. Everyday-Logic & Marshmello (+432)
178. Mona Lisa-Lil Wayne ft. Kendrick Lamar (+431)
179. Stargazing-Travis Scott (+430)
180. All on Me-Devin Dawson (+425)
181. Falling Down-Lil Peep & XXXTentacion (+422)
182. Workin Me-Quavo (+417)
183. You Broke Up With Me-Walker Hayes (+416)
184. No Smoke-YoungBoy Never Broke Again (+410)
185. Losing Sleep-Chris Young (+406)
186. Zombie-Bad Wolves (+405)
187. Nowadays-Lil Skies ft. Landon Cube (+403)
188. Codeine Dreaming-Kodak Black ft. Lil Wayne (+400)
189. Drunk Me-Mitchell Tenpenny (+395)
190. Bed-Nicki Minaj ft. Ariana Grande (+394)
191. Drip-Cardi B ft. Migos (+386)
192. Filthy-Justin Timberlake (+378)
193. Better-Khalid (+377)
194. That’s On Me-Yella Beezy (+374)
195. Barbie Dreams-Nicki Minaj (+371)
196. I’ll Name the Dogs-Blake Shelton (+366)
197. Hooked-Dylan Scott (+363)
198. Sunflower-Post Malone & Swae Lee (+359)
199. I Lived It-Blake Shelton (+358)
200. Red Roses-Lil Skies ft. Landon Cube (+356)

[Deleted]

Nov 22, 2018 18:43:42 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Y’all don’t know me, but I’ve been keeping track of the chart all year long. This is my 2018 Billboard Year End Hot 100 Projection

Hey I've seen that format before, are you the guy who posts YE predictions in the comment sections of Spectrum Pulse's Billboard Breakdown videos?

[CF15]

I do hope "I'm A Mess" makes it. I don't know if it will have enough wind to make 2019, so this could be its only chance.

[mikerivera]

Nov 22, 2018 18:56:24 GMT -5 trilogy said:

Nov 22, 2018 18:43:42 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Y’all don’t know me, but I’ve been keeping track of the chart all year long. This is my 2018 Billboard Year End Hot 100 Projection

Hey I've seen that format before, are you the guy who posts YE predictions in the comment sections of Spectrum Pulse's Billboard Breakdown videos?

The one and only

[jarhys]

Nov 22, 2018 18:43:42 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Y’all don’t know me, but I’ve been keeping track of the chart all year long. This is my 2018 Billboard Year End Hot 100 Projection
22. Thunder-Imagine Dragons (+2,684)
37. Whatever it Takes-Imagine Dragons (+1,942)
63. Natural-Imagine Dragons (+1,445)
100. Believer-Imagine Dragons (+885)

If Believer ends up in the top 100, I will tear up with joy.

[floor555]

Nov 21, 2018 22:03:39 GMT -5 propanda said:

Am I the only one who is shocked to not see I Lived It on any top 200 lists?


It had a p. respectable chart run, survived Scorpion, lasted 19 weeks, and if irc, at the 26 week mark, it one was p. close to reaching consideration, what happened?

In my list it ended up at #177.
My list is VERY innacurate tho.

[tanooki]

Quick question, don't quote a 200 song list ever again thanks

[mikerivera]

I use an inverse point system for 11-100 (with bonuses for 11-20 and 21-30), and I try to use real world data to calculate the top 10.

[mikerivera]

Nov 21, 2018 22:03:39 GMT -5 propanda said:

Am I the only one who is shocked to not see I Lived It on any top 200 lists?


It had a p. respectable chart run, survived Scorpion, lasted 19 weeks, and if irc, at the 26 week mark, it one was p. close to reaching consideration, what happened?

It was 199 on my list

[reputainbow]

my formula is #1 = 250, #2 = 180, #3 = 170... #10 = 100. #11-100 use an inverse point system. not the most accurate way to see what the year-end list will be exactly, but i've used this same formula for each year in the 2010s and every song with 1103+ points (j. cole/tlc's "crooked smile" didn't make the 2013 YE with 1102 points) has been a lock to make the year-end list as well as everything #79 and above (when i used the formula in 2014, luke bryan's "drink a beer" was #80 and didn't even make it, everything else that didn't make it was in the mid-late 80s and 90s)

obviously songs like god's plan/imf and psycho/gly didn't have the same points when they were all #1 but whatever, this is what i got

SPOILER: Click to show

{Top 100}1 Perfect (Ed Sheeran) 6191
2 God's Plan (Drake) 5799
3 Meant to Be (Bebe Rexha/Florida Georgia Line) 5035
4 Girls Like You (Maroon 5/Cardi B) 4607
5 Psycho (Post Malone/Ty Dolla $ign) 4539
6 I Like It (Cardi B/Bad Bunny/J Balvin) 4325
7 Havana (Camila Cabello/Young Thug) 4263
8 Rockstar (Post Malone/21 Savage) 4214
9 Nice for What (Drake) 4015
10 The Middle (Zedd/Maren Morris/Grey) 3931
11 Lucid Dreams (Juice WRLD) 3674
12 In My Feelings (Drake) 3568
13 Better Now (Post Malone) 3565
14 SAD! (XXXTentacion) 2988
15 Boo'd Up (Ella Mai) 2967
16 Finesse (Bruno Mars/Cardi B) 2827
17 New Rules (Dua Lipa) 2814
18 Never Be the Same (Camila Cabello) 2734
19 Love Lies (Khalid/Normani) 2727
20 Thunder (Imagine Dragons) 2636
21 Mine (Bazzi) 2634
22 Look Alive (BlocBoy JB/Drake) 2617
23 No Tears Left to Cry (Ariana Grande) 2561
24 Delicate (Taylor Swift) 2325
25 Yes Indeed (Lil Baby/Drake) 2273
26 Bad at Love (Halsey) 2203
27 Sicko Mode (Travis Scott) 2130
28 Taste (Tyga/Offset) 2107
29 Friends (Marshmello/Anne-Marie) 2089
30 Fefe (6ix9ine/Nicki Minaj/Murda Beatz) 2031
31 Tequila (Dan + Shay) 2014
32 No Limit (G-Eazy/A$AP Rocky/Cardi B) 2010
33 Youngblood (5 Seconds of Summer) 1959
34 Let You Down (NF) 1895
35 I Like Me Better (Lauv) 1892
36 Feel It Still (Portugal. the Man) 1861
37 Back to You (Selena Gomez) 1857
38 MotorSport (Migos/Nicki Minaj/Cardi B) 1831
39 Ric Flair Drip (Offset/Metro Boomin) 1808
40 Whatever It Takes (Imagine Dragons) 1807
41 I Fall Apart (Post Malone) 1777
42 Gucci Gang (Lil Pump) 1746
43 Pray for Me (The Weeknd/Kendrick Lamar) 1721
44 Nonstop (Drake) 1689
45 Too Good at Goodbyes (Sam Smith) 1640
46 In My Blood (Shawn Mendes) 1639
47 Walk It Talk It (Migos/Drake) 1638
48 Him & I (G-Eazy/Halsey) 1594
49 All the Stars (Kendrick Lamar/SZA) 1571
50 Heaven (Kane Brown) 1564
51 Love. (Kendrick Lamar/Zacari) 1551
52 This Is America (Childish Gambino) 1540
53 Bodak Yellow (Cardi B) 1516
54 God Is a Woman (Ariana Grande) 1489
55 Big Bank (YG/2 Chainz/Big Sean/Nicki Minaj) 1481
56 Stir Fry (Migos) 1465
57 Wolves (Selena Gomez/Marshmello) 1455
58 Freaky Friday (Lil Dicky/Chris Brown) 1450
59 Wait (Maroon 5) 1441
60 Gummo (6ix9ine) 1439
61 Plug Walk (Rich the Kid) 1410
62 Be Careful (Cardi B) 1396
63 How Long (Charlie Puth) 1373
64 Happier (Marshmello/Bastille) 1365
65 Bartier Cardi (Cardi B/21 Savage) 1339
66 Lights Down Low (Max/Gnash) 1338
67 Natural (Imagine Dragons) 1332
68 Sorry Not Sorry (Demi Lovato) 1329
69 Young Dumb & Broke (Khalid) 1324
70 One Kiss (Calvin Harris/Dua Lipa) 1255
71 Eastside (Benny Blanco/Halsey/Khalid) 1238
72 You Make It Easy (Jason Aldean) 1215
73 Shape of You (Ed Sheeran) 1166
74 Sky Walker (Miguel/Travis Scott) 1153
75 Simple (Florida Georgia Line) 1142
76 Plain Jane (A$AP Ferg/Nicki Minaj) 1141
77 Te Bote (Casper Magico/Nio Garcia/Darell/Nicky Jam/Ozuna/Bad Bunny) 1132
78 I Get the Bag (Gucci Mane/Migos) 1127
79 No Brainer (DJ Khaled/Justin Bieber/Chance the Rapper/Quavo) 1116
80 Marry Me (Thomas Rhett) 1103
81 Lemon (N.E.R.D/Rihanna) 1048
82 Trip (Ella Mai) 1028
83 1-800-273-8255 (Logic/Alessia Cara/Khalid) 1011
84 Get Along (Kenny Chesney) 992
85 King's Dead (Jay Rock/Kendrick Lamar/Future/James Blake) 986
86 I'm a Mess (Bebe Rexha) 972
87 X (Nicky Jam/J Balvin) 959
88 Broken (lovelytheband) 949
89 Drip Too Hard (Lil Baby/Yung Gunna) 945
90 Say Something (Justin Timberlake/Chris Stapleton) 944
91 Call Out My Name (The Weeknd) 937
92 What Lovers Do (Maroon 5/SZA) 936
93 I'm Upset (Drake) 924
94 One Number Away (Luke Combs) 911
95 Mercy (Brett Young) 908
96 Moonlight (XXXTentacion) 901
97 Outside Today (YoungBoy Never Broke Again) 901
98 Dura (Daddy Yankee) 886
99 Believer (Imagine Dragons) 881
100 Beautiful (Bazzi/Camila Cabello) 874

SPOILER: Click to show

{Top 200}101 Mo Bamba (Sheck Wes) 868
102 Changes (XXXTentacion) 855
103 Mi Gente (J Balvin/Willy William/Beyonce) 842
104 Powerglide (Rae Sremmurd/Juicy J) 831
105 Apeshit (The Carters) 814
106 I Love It (Kanye West/Lil Pump) 813
107 All Girls Are the Same (Juice WRLD) 811
108 Chun-Li (Nicki Minaj) 798
109 Ring (Cardi B/Kehlani) 797
110 New Freezer (Rich the Kid/Kendrick Lamar) 794
111 High Hopes (Panic! at the Disco) 793
112 The Way Life Goes (Lil Uzi Vert/Nicki Minaj) 786
113 Bank Account (21 Savage) 786
114 River (Eminem/Ed Sheeran) 767
115 Let Me Go (Hailee Steinfeld/Alesso/Florida Georgia Line/Watt) 764
116 Roll In Peace (Kodak Black/XXXTentacion) 737
117 Good Old Days (Macklemore/Kesha) 736
118 Breathin (Ariana Grande) 735
119 IDGAF (Dua Lipa) 734
120 Sit Next to Me (Foster the People) 708
121 End Game (Taylor Swift/Ed Sheeran/Future) 708
122 Drowns the Whiskey (Jason Aldean/Miranda Lambert) 707
123 Attention (Charlie Puth) 699
124 ZEZE (Kodak Black/Travis Scott/Offset) 690
125 Japan (Famous Dex) 684
126 Unforgettable (French Montana/Swae Lee) 681
127 Jackie Chan (Tiesto/Dzeko/Preme/Post Malone) 680
128 Without Me (Halsey) 660
129 She Got the Best of Me (Luke Combs) 658
130 Despacito (Luis Fonsi/Daddy Yankee/Justin Bieber) 657
131 Up Down (Morgan Wallen/Florida Georgia Line) 649
132 Shallow (Lady Gaga/Bradley Cooper) 646
133 Hotel Key (Old Dominion) 639
134 The Weekend (SZA) 633
135 Sunrise, Sunburn, Sunset (Luke Bryan) 628
136 Most People Are Good (Luke Bryan) 628
137 Yours (Russell Dickerson) 618
138 You Say (Lauren Daigle) 613
139 Wake Up In the Sky (Gucci Mane/Bruno Mars/Kodak Black) 607
140 Silence (Marshmello/Khalid) 604
141 Life Changes (Thomas Rhett) 599
142 Pick It Up (Famous Dex/A$AP Rocky) 599
143 Candy Paint (Post Malone) 586
144 Five More Minutes (Scotty McCreery) 578
145 Taki Taki (DJ Snake/Selena Gomez/Ozuna/Cardi B) 575
146 That's What I Like (Bruno Mars) 568
147 Betrayed (Lil Xan) 564
148 Ball for Me (Post Malone/Nicki Minaj) 555
149 Lose It (Kane Brown) 552
150 Medicine (Queen Naija) 552
151 Like I Loved You (Brett Young) 552
152 Lucky You (Eminem/Joyner Lucas) 550
153 Pills and Automobiles (Chris Brown/Yo Gotti/A Boogie wit da Hoodie/Kodak Black) 545
154 Singles You Up (Jordan Davis) 540
155 Broken Halos (Chris Stapleton) 538
156 KOD (J. Cole) 537
157 Drew Barrymore (Bryce Vine) 535
158 Uproar (Lil Wayne) 534
159 Tell Me You Love Me (Demi Lovato) 532
160 Written In the Sand (Old Dominion) 512
161 Rubbin Off the Paint (YBN Nahmir) 512
162 Greatest Love Story (LANCO) 511
163 Echame La Culpa (Luis Fonsi/Demi Lovato) 510
164 Esskeetit (Lil Pump) 504
165 Killshot (Eminem) 504
166 ...Ready for It? (Taylor Swift) 503
167 thank u, next (Ariana Grande) 500
168 El Farsante (Ozuna/Romeo Santos) 493
169 Africa (Weezer) 489
170 MIA (Bad Bunny/Drake) 488
171 No Excuses (Meghan Trainor) 483
172 All I Want For Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 478
173 What About Us (P!nk) 469
174 Blue Tacoma (Russell Dickerson) 461
175 Break Up In the End (Cole Swindell) 448
176 Lie (NF) 447
177 Smile (Living My Best Life) (Lil Duval/Snoop Dogg/Ball Greezy) 446
178 Everyday (Logic/Marshmello) 432
179 Mona Lisa (Lil Wayne) 427
180 All on Me (Devin Dawson) 426
181 Stargazing (Travis Scott) 426
182 W O R K I N M E (Quavo) 416
183 You Broke Up With Me (Walker Hayes) 416
184 Falling Down (Lil Peep/XXXTentacion) 413
185 No Smoke (YoungBoy Never Broke Again) 410
186 Losing Sleep (Chris Young) 406
187 Nowadays (Lil Skies/Landon Cube) 403
188 Zombie (Bad Wolves) 400
189 Codeine Dreaming (Kodak Black/Lil Wayne) 400
190 Drunk Me (Mitchell Tenpenny) 394
191 Drip (Cardi B/Migos) 386
192 Bed (Nicki Minaj/Ariana Grande) 384
193 Filthy (Justin Timberlake) 378
194 Better (Khalid) 377
195 Round Here Buzz (Eric Church) 375
196 That's On Me (Yella Beezy) 374
197 I'll Name the Dogs (Blake Shelton) 372
198 Barbie Dreams (Nicki Minaj) 371
199 Hooked (Dylan Scott) 363
200 Red Roses (Lil Skies/Landon Cube) 356

[CF15]

^ Wow, "Girls Like You" all the way up at #4? That's impressive for a song that peaked in September...

[inverse]

I love how we have so many different systems and so much variation with no way of knowing who’s right but we all can agree Better Now will be 13

[CF15]

Nov 24, 2018 0:25:02 GMT -5 inverse said:

I love how we have so many different systems and so much variation with no way of knowing who’s right but we all can agree Better Now will be 13

How funny will it be if it ends up not actually being #13?

[willapted33]

happy that Drip Too Hard is (probably) going to make it

[mikerivera]

That was the exact way I did it when I was starting out. As the year went on, I made adjustments to make it more accurate, and by the end I started incorporating actual data into the calculations. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with giving God’s Plan and Girls Like You the same point totals though, given just how weak GLY was when it was number one

[kcdawg13]

I swear if Perfect actually pulls the #1 over God's Plan I will be done with life

[feldspar905]

Can some explain to me  how does the margin of error in Fhas´s predictions work?

[fhas]

Nov 24, 2018 10:33:00 GMT -5 feldspar905 said:

Can some explain to me  how does the margin of error in Fhas´s predictions work?

The margin of error is for the points of the #100 song. I put 185k because I thought the song at #100 would finish with 185k points, but with a 2% margin of error because it's obviously possible that I was wrong.

[feldspar905]

Nov 22, 2018 18:43:42 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Y’all don’t know me, but I’ve been keeping track of the chart all year long. This is my 2018 Billboard Year End Hot 100 Projection

1. God’s Plan-Drake (+6,965)
2. Perfect-Ed Sheeran (+6,855)
3. Meant to Be-Bebe Rexha & Florida Georgia Line (+5,201)
4. Havana-Camila Cabello ft. Young Thug (+4,840)
5. Psycho-Post Malone ft. Ty Dolla $ign (+4,796)
6. Rockstar-Post Malone ft. 21 Savage (+4,539)
7. I Like It-Cardi B ft. Bad Bunny & J Balvin (+4,454)
8. In My Feelings-Drake (+4,362)
9. Girls Like You-Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B (+4,260)
10. The Middle-Zedd, Maren Morris & Grey (+4,132)
11. Nice for What-Drake (+4,008)
12. Lucid Dreams-Juice WRLD (+3,676)
13. Better Now-Post Malone (+3,634)
14. Sad!-XXXTentacion (+3,152)
15. Boo’d Up-Ella Mai (+3,145)
16. Finesse-Bruno Mars & Cardi B (+3,040)
17. Never Be the Same-Camila Cabello (+2,948)
18. New Rules-Dua Lipa (+2,917)
19. Mine-Bazzi (+2,916)
20. Love Lies-Normani & Khalid (+2,911)
21. Look Alive-BlocBoy JB ft. Drake (+2,750)
22. Thunder-Imagine Dragons (+2,684)
23. No Tears Left to Cry-Ariana Grande (+2,681)
24. Delicate-Taylor Swift (+2,491)
25. Yes Indeed-Lil Baby & Drake (+2,428)
26. Bad at Love-Halsey (+2,247)
27. Friends-Marshmello & Anne-Marie (+2,242)
28. Taste-Tyga ft. Offset (+2,222)
29. Tequila-Dan+Shay (+2,124)
30. YoungBlood-5 Seconds of Summer (+2,062)
31. FeFe-6ix9ine ft. Nicki Minaj & Murda Beatz (+2,057)
32. Sicko Mode-Travis Scott (+2,040)
33. Let You Down-NF (+2,019)
34. No Limit-G Eazy ft. A$AP Rocky & Cardi B (+2,014)
35. Back to You-Selena Gomez (+2,007)
36. I Like Me Better-Lauv (+1,958)
37. Whatever it Takes-Imagine Dragons (+1,942)
38. Feel it Still-Portugal. The Man (+1,903)
39. MotorSport-Migos, Cardi B & Nicki Minaj (+1,902)
40. Ric Flair Drip-Offset & Metro Boomin (+1,857)
41. Nonstop-Drake (+1,835)
42. Pray for Me-Kendrick Lamar & The Weeknd (+1,795)
43. I Fall Apart-Post Malone (+1,792)
44. Gucci Gang-Lil Pump (+1,774)
45. Walk it Talk It-Migos ft. Drake (+1,773)
46. In My Blood-Shawn Mendes (+1,747)
47. This is America-Childish Gambino (+1,725)
48. Him & I-G Eazy ft. Halsey (+1,690)
49. Heaven-Kane Brown (+1,683)
50. Too Good at Goodbyes-Sam Smith (+1,659)
51. Love-Kendrick Lamar ft. Zacari (+1,658)
52. All the Stars-Kendrick Lamar & SZA (+1,611)
53. God is a Woman-Ariana Grande (+1,610)
54. Big Bank-YG ft. 2 Chainz, Big Sean & Nicki Minaj (+1,593)
55. Bodak Yellow-Cardi B (+1,563)
56. Stir Fry-Migos (+1,532)
57. Freaky Friday-Lil Dicky ft. Chris Brown (+1,523)
58. Gummo-6ix9ine (+1,522)
59. Be Careful-Cardi B (+1,502)
60. Plug Walk-Rich the Kid (+1,501)
61. Wolves-Marshmello & Selena Gomez (+1,479)
62. Wait-Maroon 5 (+1,477)
63. Natural-Imagine Dragons (+1,445)
64. Bartier Cardi-Cardi B ft. 21 Savage (+1,408)
65. How Long-Charlie Puth (+1,393)
66. Sorry Not Sorry-Demi Lovato (+1,368)
67. Lights Down Low-MAX ft. gnash (+1,355)
68. One Kiss-Calvin Harris ft. Dua Lipa (+1,334)
69. Young, Dumb & Broke-Khalid (+1,328)
70. Eastside-Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid (+1,325)
71. Happier-Marshmello & Bastille (+1,317)
72. You Make it Easy-Jason Aldean (+1,223)
73. Shape of You-Ed Sheeran (+1,178)
74. Simple-Florida Georgia Line (+1,177)
75. I Get the Bag-Gucci Mane ft. Migos (+1,166)
76. No Brainer-DJ Khaled ft. Justin Bieber, Chance the Rapper & Quavo (+1,165)
77. Sky Walker-Miguel ft. Travis Scott (+1,164)
78. Te Bote-Casper Mágico, Nio García, Darell, Nicky Jam, Ozuna, Bad Bunny (+1,158)
70. Plain Jane-A$AP Ferg (+1,141)
80. Trip-Ella Mai (+1,124)
81. Marry Me-Thomas Rhett (+1,107)
82. Lemon-NERD & Rihanna (+1,048)
83. 1-800-273-8255-Logic ft. Alessia Cara & Khalid (+1,033)
84. I’m Upset-Drake (+1,026)
85. Get Along-Kenny Chesney (+1,023)
86. King’s Dead-Jay Rock, Kendrick Lamar, Future & James Blake (+1,006)
87. X-Nicky Jam x J Balvin (+989)
88. I’m a Mess-Bebe Rexha (+980)
89. Call Out My Name-The Weeknd (+978)
90. Drip Too Hard-Lil Baby & Gunna (+972)
91. Say Something-Justin Timberlake ft. Chris Stapleton (+965)
92. Broken-lovelytheband (+961)
93. What Lovers Do-Maroon 5 ft. SZA (+958)
94. Mercy-Brett Young (+943)
95. One Number Away-Luke Combs (+937)
96. Moonlight-XXXTentacion (+929)
97. Outside Today-YoungBoy Never Broke Again (+901)
98. Dura-Daddy Yankee (+887)
99. Mo Bamba-Sheck Wes (+886)
100. Believer-Imagine Dragons (+885)

101. Beautiful-Bazzi ft. Camila Cabello (+875)
102. Apeshit-The Carters (+874)
103. Changes-XXXTentacion (+873)
104. Mi Gente-J Balvin & Willy William (+868)
105. Powerglide-Rae Sremmurd & Juicy J (+840)
106. Chun Li-Nicki Minaj (+839)
107. I Love It-Kanye West & Lil Pump (+834)
108. All Girls are the Same-Juice WRLD (+821)
109. High Hopes-Panic! At the Disco (+819)
110. Ring-Cardi B ft. Kehlani (+801)
111. Bank Account-21 Savage (+799)
112. New Freezer-Rich the Kid ft. Kendrick Lamar (+794)
113. The Way Life Goes-Lil Uzi Vert ft. Oh Wonder (+785)
114. River-Eminem ft. Ed Sheeran (+776)
115. Breathin-Ariana Grande (+766)
116. Let Me Go-Hailee Steinfeld & Alesso ft. Florida Georgia Line & watt (+764)
117. Good Old Days-Macklemore ft. Kesha (+736)
118. Roll in Peace-Kodak Black ft. XXXTentacion (+735)
119. IDGAF-Dua Lipa (+734)
120. Drowns the Whiskey-Jason Aldean ft. Miranda Lambert (+731)
121. Sit Next to Me-Foster the People (+718)
122. End Game-Taylor Swift ft. Future & Ed Sheeran (+712)
123. Attention-Charlie Puth (+699)
124. Japan-Famous Dex (+697)
125. Shallow-Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper (+682)
126. Unforgettable-French Montana ft. Swae Lee (+681)
127. Jackie Chan-Tiesto & Dzecko ft. Preme & Post Malone (+680)
128. Zeze-Kodak Black ft. Travis Scott & Offset (+675)
129. Without Me-Halsey (+663)
130. Despacito-Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee (+662)
131. Up Down-Morgan Wallen ft. Florida Georgia Line (+659)
132. She Got the Best of Me-Luke Combs (+658)
133. Sunrise, Sunburn, Sunset-Luke Bryan (+647)
134. Hotel Key-Old Dominion (+644)
135. Wake Up in the Sky-Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black (+641)
136. The Weekend-SZA (+633)
137. Taki Taki-DJ Snake ft. Selena Gomez, Osuna & Cardi B (+629)
138. Most People are Good-Luke Bryan (+628)
139. Yours-Russell Dickerson (+618)
140. Life Changes-Thomas Rhett (+614)
141. You Say-Lauren Daigle (+613)
142. Silence-Marshmello ft. Khalid (+604)
143. Candy Paint-Post Malone (+600)
144. Pick it Up-Famous Dex ft. A$AP Rocky (+599)
145. Five More Minutes-Scotty McCreery (+578)
146. Lucky You-Eminem ft. Lucas Joyner (+573)
147. That’s What I Like-Bruno Mars (+568)
148. Ball for Me-Post Malone ft. Nicki Minaj (+565)
149. Betrayed-Lil Xan (+564)
150. Medicine-Queen Naija (+562)
151. Lose It-Kane Brown (+556)
152. KOD-J. Cole (+547)
153. Pills & Automobiles-Chris Brown (+544)
154. Like I Loved You-Brett Young (+542)
155. Singles You Up-Jordan Davis (+540)
156. Uproar-Lil Wayne (+539)
157. Broken Halos-Chris Stapleton (+538)
158. Drew Barrymore-Brice Vine (+535)
159. Tell Me You Love Me-Demi Lovato (+532)
160. MIA-Bad Bunny ft. Drake (+525)
161. Eskeetit-Lil Pump (+524)
162. Written in the Sand-Old Dominion (+513)
163. Rubbin Off the Paint-YBN Nahmir (+512)
164. Greatest Love Story-LANCO (+511)
165. Échame La Culpa-Luis Fonsi & Demi Lovato (+510)
166. Ready For It-Taylor Swift (+507)
167. Killshot-Eminem (+504)
168. El Farsante-Ozuna & Romeo Santos (+492)
169. Thank U, Next-Ariana Grande (+490)
170. Africa-Weezer (+489)
171. No Excuses-Meghan Trainor (+482)
172. What About Us-P!nk (+469)
173. Blue Tacoma-Russell Dickerson (+461)
174. Break Up in the End-Cole Swindell (+448)
175. Lie-NF (+447)
176. Smile (Living My Best Life)-Lil Duval ft. Snoop Dogg & Ball Greezy (+446)
177. Everyday-Logic & Marshmello (+432)
178. Mona Lisa-Lil Wayne ft. Kendrick Lamar (+431)
179. Stargazing-Travis Scott (+430)
180. All on Me-Devin Dawson (+425)
181. Falling Down-Lil Peep & XXXTentacion (+422)
182. Workin Me-Quavo (+417)
183. You Broke Up With Me-Walker Hayes (+416)
184. No Smoke-YoungBoy Never Broke Again (+410)
185. Losing Sleep-Chris Young (+406)
186. Zombie-Bad Wolves (+405)
187. Nowadays-Lil Skies ft. Landon Cube (+403)
188. Codeine Dreaming-Kodak Black ft. Lil Wayne (+400)
189. Drunk Me-Mitchell Tenpenny (+395)
190. Bed-Nicki Minaj ft. Ariana Grande (+394)
191. Drip-Cardi B ft. Migos (+386)
192. Filthy-Justin Timberlake (+378)
193. Better-Khalid (+377)
194. That’s On Me-Yella Beezy (+374)
195. Barbie Dreams-Nicki Minaj (+371)
196. I’ll Name the Dogs-Blake Shelton (+366)
197. Hooked-Dylan Scott (+363)
198. Sunflower-Post Malone & Swae Lee (+359)
199. I Lived It-Blake Shelton (+358)
200. Red Roses-Lil Skies ft. Landon Cube (+356)

Considering that last year Do Re Mi wasn´t in your predictions and made the year end list,i think beautiful has a slight chance.Also holy fuck High Hopes did way better than i expected due to how little time its been charting

[feldspar905]

Nov 24, 2018 10:46:10 GMT -5 fhas said:

Nov 24, 2018 10:33:00 GMT -5 feldspar905 said:

Can some explain to me  how does the margin of error in Fhas´s predictions work?

The margin of error is for the points of the #100 song. I put 185k because I thought the song at #100 would finish with 185k points, but with a 2% margin of error because it's obviously possible that I was wrong.

Okay i get it now.

[feldspar905]

I hope Drip Too Hard and mo bamba made it

[fhas]

November 24, 2018 - 53/53 weeks (100%)

Added this week:
---> Five More Minutes (Scotty McCreery)
---> Roll in Peace (Kodak Black feat. XXXTentacion)
---> breathin (Ariana Grande)

Locked this week:
---> broken (lovelytheband)
---> All Girls Are The Same (Juice WRLD)

[rockgolf]

Drip Too Hard misses the top 100 by 40 points...

Literally within rounding error.

Time to do some analysis on the various predictions. I've been waiting on yours, fhas, because I expect it will be the most accurate.

[Deleted]

Regardless what you think of the song, it's kind of funny and awkward for the Billboard year end 2018 countdown lists to start with "All Girls Are The Same", assuming it makes it at #100.