Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[floor555]

Nov 24, 2018 23:38:18 GMT -5 lukulele said:

Nov 24, 2018 11:02:45 GMT -5 fhas said:

November 24, 2018 - 53/53 weeks (100%)
Where do STARGAZING and YOSEMITE fall

STARGAING at #186
YOSEMITE at #224
My list is not accurate tho.

[dynamac]

Nov 25, 2018 1:30:44 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Nov 25, 2018 1:12:08 GMT -5 dynamac said:

She was from Feb 8 to March 20th. Idk if that’s when the majority of points were accrued tho.

Beyonce probably won't get a credit for Perfect so

Beyoncé had credit removed, Nicki stayed on until it went recurrent

[holyground13]

Does anyone have any link for the Year End Predictions for Adult Contemporary and the Hot Adult Contemporary Billboard Charts?

[fhas]

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - November 24th 2018

Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000

#	+/-	Song	Points	Sales	Airplay	On-Demand	YouTube	Programmed	Total Streams	+/- (%)
1	=	thank u, next	46,900	43.0k	22.0m	43.0m	20.3m	0.0m	63.4m	-3.5
2	+1	SICKO MODE	29,700	17.0k	60.2m	18.4m	11.5m	5.2m	35.2m	+4.3
3	+1	Happier	29,300	22.0k	99.2m	12.5m	6.0m	2.5m	21.2m	+2.6
4	+2	Without Me	27,200	35.0k	50.5m	16.2m	7.1m	2.6m	26.0m	+7.5
5	-3	Girls Like You	25,900	10.9k	98.3m	6.3m	10.0m	4.8m	21.2m	-9.5
6	-1	Lucid Dreams	25,500	7.7k	64.8m	12.2m	11.7m	6.2m	30.2m	-4.0
7	+2	Mo Bamba	23,900	9.3k	19.3m	20.9m	13.4m	1.6m	36.0m	+4.9
8	+4	High Hopes	23,600	23.0k	95.1m	6.0m	3.4m	2.6m	12.2m	+8.8
9	-1	ZEZE	22,600	6.7k	22.9m	18.3m	12.3m	3.8m	34.5m	-3.3
10	=	Drip Too Hard	22,500	5.5k	18.3m	21.6m	10.5m	1.8m	33.9m	-1.1

Sources:

Hot 100's article
Billboard Chart Beat
HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand)
HDD's Revenue Chart
Kworb's Overall AI
YouTube Insights
Pandora Top Spins Chart
@chartdata (Twitter)

[fhas]

Highlights of the week:

- thank u, next: 36,640 streaming points - strongest streaming #1 (using points instead of number of streams) since In My Feelings (45,973 streaming points - 92.7M streams - August 18);
- Happier: second weakest radio #1 of the last 10 years (weakest: P!nk - Blow Me - 98M audience impressions - Sep. 29, 2012);

[fhas]

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - November 24, 2018

[samo🦕]

I may not particularly like any of them (except for tu,n), but at least the top 4 are making the chart a bit stronger than it was during GLY’s reign.

[Deleted]

Nov 24, 2018 23:08:11 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Taylor Swift back in the Top 25 where she belongs

She was there last year

[inverse]

Nope she was 26 and 39. The year before she was 79 only

[Deleted]

Nov 26, 2018 0:39:00 GMT -5 inverse said:

Nope she was 26 and 39. The year before she was 79 only

Wtf I thought IDWLF was 21

[CF15]

^ "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" is so forgettable that I did not even know which second song you were talking about until you just mentioned it explicitly.

[inverse]

I wonder what songs are gonna repeat I’m 2019. I don’t think there’s gonna be many.

Guaranteed:
Sicko Mode
Happier
Trash Nightmares

Likely:
Girls Like You
Youngblood
Better Now
Eastside

Depend on if 2018:
Drip Too Hard
Mo Bamba
High Hopes

The the rest are toss ups. Trip is a contender for sure, i have no idea whether or not it’s gonna bounce for long enough to make it. Natural was looking good then it went 13 to 20. Love Lies has 13 weeks but Watch Me did it in a similar position, this ones gonna be close. Then everything below is probably no chance. Maybe GIAW if it really sticks who knows

[feldspar905]

Nov 27, 2018 0:31:35 GMT -5 Marcus said:

Am I jumping the gun?
Yes, totally.

I’ve made a 2019 YE predictions playlist already, the first week is based on this week’s hot 100 but I’ll update it based on whoever does the predictions for 2019.


I think without me will be the biggest song of the year just be fucking ready

[feldspar905]

Nov 27, 2018 0:31:35 GMT -5 Marcus said:

Am I jumping the gun?
Yes, totally.

I’ve made a 2019 YE predictions playlist already, the first week is based on this week’s hot 100 but I’ll update it based on whoever does the predictions for 2019.


Looks better than 2018´s list lol

[grilledcheese]

Is this the period of time where no one posts on this thread until the YE chart comes out?

[tanooki]

how much you wanna bet that chartdata will leak the year end list early lol

[rockgolf]

grilledcheese : Quiet! You'll wake the wee ones.


tanooki : To a large extent,  haven't we done that ourselves? 

[Abbaschand]

I think it's a bit nitpicky and out of topic, but rockgolf, why you name your chart the complete chart, instead of COMPLETE?

[rockgolf]

Nov 30, 2018 7:41:56 GMT -5 Abbaschand said:

I think it's a bit nitpicky and out of topic, but rockgolf , why you name your chart the complete chart, instead of COMPLETE?

It's an archaic spelling (cf. The complete Angler) but still listed as valid in most dictionaries sometimes with a slightly different definition. Also returns far fewer results if you're searching for it. I often make spelling errors, but this was intentional.

[rimetm]

So yeah, final video version of the predictions, apologies in advance for the clips being so short and as usual, full credit has been given in-video and in-description to fhas.

[velaxti]

Nov 29, 2018 22:55:00 GMT -5 tanooki said:

how much you wanna bet that chartdata will leak the year end list early lol

Does chartdata have insider information or not? He claims to post the #1s early each week, but every time he's done it so far it's always been obvious what the #1 would be. And all the other stuff he posts... I mean, I can go on Youtube or Spotify and check how many streams a song has, or I can look at which songs have recently been certified Platinum. I always was under the impression that he just looks for interesting stats to post.

[lukulele]

 What if there was a ye chart that ran from June to May so songs split between years get recognition 

[lukulele]

and what day does the ye chart come out

[grilledcheese]

Dec 1, 2018 2:55:59 GMT -5 lukulele said:

 What if there was a ye chart that ran from June to May so songs split between years get recognition 

Then the songs that start charting slightly before June would get caught between years. I don't think there's a way out of that.

[rockgolf]

Dec 1, 2018 4:29:38 GMT -5 grilledcheese said:

Dec 1, 2018 2:55:59 GMT -5 lukulele said:

 What if there was a ye chart that ran from June to May so songs split between years get recognition 

Then the songs that start charting slightly before June would get caught between years. I don't think there's a way out of that.

Sure there is. My complete charts. All you need is time to let songs complete their chart runs.

[Deleted]

Nov 30, 2018 22:33:36 GMT -5 rimetm said:

So yeah, final video version of the predictions, apologies in advance for the clips being so short and as usual, full credit has been given in-video and in-description to fhas.

Legend 

[kingscouser]

A few fun facts about the charts this decade

-Every year this decade has had a number one debut (we will see if 2019 keeps this up)

-The Year End song has always been from the first part of the year (as opposed to other years when summer smashes would top the year end)

-Uptown Funk despite having it's chart run end prematurely, looks like it will be the song of the decade (unless Shape Of You gets some bonus points)

-In 2011 both the songs that hit number 2 had the word f*ck in them (f*ck you-Cee Lo Green and f*cking perfect-P!nk)

[rimetm]

Some other trivia now that we're in year-end season:

-2012 and 2014 are special in that their top 3s are chained together in terms of number one reigns. [We Are Young (#3) -> Somebody That I Used to Know (#1) -> Call Me Maybe (#2)] and [Dark Horse (#2) -> Happy (#1) -> All of Me (#3)].

-2010 and 2015 are special in that the 2nd biggest songs were also #2 peakers. 2010 has Need You Now and 2015 has Thinking Out Loud.

-In only 2 years has the Song of the Summer missed the year-end top 5: 2015 and, if predictions hold, 2018. 2010 had California Gurls (#4), 2011 had Party Rock Anthem (#2), 2012 had Call Me Maybe (#2), 2013 had Blurred Lines (#2), 2014 had Fancy (#4), 2015 had Cheerleader (#11), 2016 had One Dance (#3), and 2017 had Despacito (#2).

-The artists with the most lead appearances on each list:

2010 - Usher/Black Eyed Peas (4 each)
2011 - Rihanna (5)
2012 - Rihanna (5)
2013 - Bruno Mars/Imagine Dragons/Macklemore & Ryan Lewis/Maroon 5/Rihanna (3 each)
2014 - Jason Derulo/Katy Perry (3 each)
2015 - Meghan Trainor/Taylor Swift (4 each)
2016 - Drake (6)
2017 - Kendrick Lamar/Maroon 5/Migos/Shawn Mendes/The Chainsmokers (3 each)

In no year so far has the artist with unequivocally the most entries also gotten the YE #1.

-So far, here are the artists who have only nabbed one appearance in a 2010's year-end, split by year:

2010
Adam Lambert
Akon
The Band Perry
Birdman
Boys Like Girls
Cali Swag District
Daughtry
Fabolous
Iyaz
Jerrod Niemann
Kevin McCall
Kevin Rudolf
Kings of Leon
Kris Allen
La Roux
Lloyd
Michael Buble
Mr. Hudson
Orianthi
Plies
Rivers Cuomo
Sean Kingston
Shontelle
Travie McCoy
Uncle Kracker
Young Money

2011
50 Cent
Avril Lavigne
Bad Meets Evil
Brad Paisley
Busta Rhymes
Cobra Starship
CeeLo Green
Cory Gunz
Dirty Money
DJ Frank E.
Dr. Dre
Edward Maya
Eric Turner
Foster the People (maybe 2018?)
GoonRock
Grace Potter
Hot Chelle Rae
Jennifer Lopez
Jimmy Buffett
Kelly Rowland
Keri Hilson
Lauren Bennett
Lupe Fiasco
Nayer
Rodney Atkins
Roscoe Dash
Ryan Tedder
Sabi
Thompson Square
Tinie Tempah
Vika Jigulina
Waka Flocka Flame

2012
Alex Clare
Cash Out
Cher Lloyd
Eric Church
Gavin DeGraw
Gotye
Havana Brown
Jason Mraz
Karmin
Kimbra
Kip Moore
Kirko Bangz
Lily Allen
Linkin Park
The Lumineers
Neon Hitch
Psy
Pusha T.
Toby Keith
The Wanted

2013
Ace Hood
Anna Kendrick
AWOLnation
Baauer
Capital Cities
Cedric Gervais
Ciara
Darius Rucker
Emeli Sande
Florence Welch
Foxes
Icona Pop
John Martin
Lana Del Rey
Mac Miller
Majid Jordan
Mariah Carey
Mary Lambert
Mikky Ekko
Mumford & Sons
Nate Ruess
Of Monsters and Men
Olly Murs
Passenger
Pistol Annies
Randy Houser
Robin Thicke
Ray Dalton
Rocko
Swedish House Mafia
Tiara Thomas
Wanz
Ylvis

2014
A Great Big World
Aloe Blacc
American Authors
Bastille (probably 2018)
Becky G.
BJ the Chicago Kid
Bobby Shmurda
Brantley Gilbert
Descemer Bueno
Dierks Bentley
Disclosure
Echosmith
Gente de Zona
Hollis
Idina Menzel
Jess Glynne
KONGOS
MAGIC!
Martin Garrix
Michael Jackson
Mike WiLL Made-It
MKTO
Naughty Boy
The Neighbourhood
Nico & Vinz
R. Kelly
Rich Gang
Rita Ora
Rixton
Shakira
Tinashe
Too Short

2015
AlunaGeorge
Andy Grammer
Diplo
Disciples
E-40
Ella Henderson
Elle King
Eric Nally
George Ezra
Grandmaster Caz
Hozier
ILoveMakonnen
ILoveMemphis
James Newton Howard
Jennifer Lawrence
Jhene Aiko
Jidenna
Kool Moe Dee
Lookas
Mark Ronson
Meek Mill
Melle Mel
Monty
Mr. Probz
Natalie La Rose
Nicky Jam (probably 2018)
Omarion
OMI
Paul McCartney
R. City
Rachel Platten
Remy Boyz
Roman GianArthur
Sage the Gemini
Silento
Skrillex
T-Wayne
Vance Joy
Walk the Moon

2016
Bipolar Sunshine
DNCE
DRAM
Fat Joe
Flume
G-Eazy (definitely 2018)
Gnash
Grey (definitely 2018)
Hailee Steinfeld
Infared
James Bay
Kai
Kent Jones
Kiiara
Kyla
Lukas Graham
MNEK
Olivia O'Brien
Remy Ma
Rozes
Ruth B.
The Throne
Wizkid
Young Dolph
Zara Larsson

2017
A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie
Amine
Anne-Marie (definitely 2018)
Ayo & Teo
Blackbear
Brett Young (probably 2018)
Cardi B. (definitely 2018)
Chance the Rapper (probably 2018)
Cheat Codes
Childish Gambino (definitely 2018)
Daddy Yankee (maybe 2018?)
Dustin Lynch
Frank Ocean
Harry Styles
J. Balvin (definitely 2018)
James Arthur
Jon Bellion
Julia Michaels
Kane Brown (definitely 2018)
Kygo
Kyle
Lauren Alaina
Liam Payne
Luis Fonsi
Luke Combs (probably 2018)
Machine Gun Kelly
Marian Hill
Niall Horan
Playboi Carti
Portugal. The Man
Skip Marley
Swae Lee (probably 2019?)
Willy William
XXXTentacion (definitely 2018)
YFN Lucci
Zayhilfigerrr
Zayvion McCall

[Deleted]

Dec 1, 2018 13:07:32 GMT -5 rimetm said:

2013 - Bruno Mars/Imagine Dragons/Macklemore & Ryan Lewis/Maroon 5/Rihanna (3 each)

In no year so far has the artist with the most entries also gotten the YE #1.

i get that it's tied with alot of other artists, but i think that counts?

[Dylan :)]

Thank you again for keeping this chart updated for my year end mashups :) My 2018 mix is out if anyone is interested in watching again