Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Dec 1, 2018 13:29:27 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Thank you again for keeping this chart updated for my year end mashups My 2018 mix is out if anyone is interested in watching again

Dylan :), as the mashup title states, your year-end mashups gets better and better every year! Go listen to it people, it's 3 minute and 29 seconds full of pop-oriented bopness.

P.S. Can you have the thumbnail replaced ASAP? That still of Cardi B creeps me.

[rimetm]

Dec 1, 2018 13:14:49 GMT -5 @nocreativity said:

Dec 1, 2018 13:07:32 GMT -5 rimetm said:

2013 - Bruno Mars/Imagine Dragons/Macklemore & Ryan Lewis/Maroon 5/Rihanna (3 each)

In no year so far has the artist with the most entries also gotten the YE #1.

i get that it's tied with alot of other artists, but i think that counts?

That was a derp on my part, though adding the word “unequivocally” patches up the hole for now.

[rockgolf]

Dec 1, 2018 13:29:27 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Thank you again for keeping this chart updated for my year end mashups My 2018 mix is out if anyone is interested in watching again

Wow! That was far better than I hoped for. That was close to DJ Earworm territory. Not just a seamless rhythm but a completely connected set of lyrics.

Bravo!

[nibs]

Dylan, great mashup, love that Say Something instrumental in the beginning and NTLTC sampled in it.

[inverse]

In response to rimetm (don't wanna quote that whole thing) a few of those people made 2 year ends because their song's chart run was split

The Band Perry
The Lumineers
Psy
Passenger
Robin Thicke
Elle King
Remy Boyz
Silento
DRAM
Hailee Steinfeld

also Wale had a second hit in 2013 at #59 on the year end

[Mike Schwartz]

Dec 1, 2018 2:57:15 GMT -5 lukulele said:

and what day does the ye chart come out

Someone mentioned above in an earlier post that it is expected on Monday December 10.

[fhas]

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - December 1st 2018

Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000

#	+/-	Song	Points	Sales	Airplay	On-Demand	YouTube	Programmed	Total Streams	+/- (%)
1	=	thank u, next	33,100	23.0k	31.8m	29.6m	13.1m	1.0m	43.8m	-29.5
2	=	SICKO MODE	31,100	18.0k	62.0m	19.5m	11.6m	5.8m	37.0m	+4.5
3	=	Happier	30,100	22.0k	106.0m	12.2m	6.0m	2.8m	21.2m	+3.0
4	=	Without Me	29,000	37.0k	58.6m	16.1m	7.7m	2.9m	26.8m	+6.7
5	+1	Lucid Dreams	25,800	7.8k	59.2m	12.4m	13.9m	6.2m	32.6m	+1.2
6	+2	High Hopes	25,700	23.0k	106.7m	6.4m	3.8m	2.5m	12.8m	+8.5
7	=	Mo Bamba	25,500	11.5k	21.3m	21.4m	14.8m	1.6m	37.9m	+6.6
8	-3	Girls Like You	24,200	10.8k	87.0m	6.5m	9.6m	4.8m	21.1m	-6.6
9	+1	Drip Too Hard	23,700	6.1k	19.8m	22.5m	11.2m	1.8m	35.6m	+5.5
10	-1	ZEZE	23,000	7.9k	27.3m	18.5m	11.0m	3.8m	33.4m	+1.8

Sources:

Hot 100's article
Billboard Chart Beat
HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand)
HDD's Revenue Chart
Kworb's Overall AI
YouTube Insights
Pandora Top Spins Chart
@chartdata (Twitter)

[fhas]

Highlights of the week:

- thank u, next: biggest fall in points (percentage-wise) for a song that was #1 the week before since This Is America (-35.3% - June 2 - down 1-2 on the Hot 100);

[fhas]

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - December 1, 2018

[samo🦕]

I guess tu,n will make up for the loss in points with its video.

The dominance of streaming is pretty obvious when you realise that the only songs in the top 10 that aren't in the top 50 of one (or more) category are both in the top 3 for streaming.

[sampool15]

Somehow snubbed in 2018:

-Taki Taki
-Breathin'
-Pray for Me
-Uproar
-Jackie Chan

[Dylan :)]

nibs rockgolf 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 Thank you so much for your comments! I’m glad you enjoyed. Also, I changed the thumbnail. The guy who makes them for me was asleep so I left that as a stand in while I waited for him to make it :)

[inverse]

Dec 2, 2018 16:57:13 GMT -5 sampool15 said:

Somehow snubbed in 2018:

-Taki Taki
-Breathin'
-Pray for Me
-Uproar
-Jackie Chan

Pray For Me will make year end top 59 tho?

[lukulele]

Dec 2, 2018 16:06:18 GMT -5 fhas said:

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - December 1st 2018

Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000

#	+/-	Song	Points	Sales	Airplay	On-Demand	YouTube	Programmed	Total Streams	+/- (%)
1	=	thank u, next	33,100	23.0k	31.8m	29.6m	13.1m	1.0m	43.8m	-29.5
2	=	SICKO MODE	31,100	18.0k	62.0m	19.5m	11.6m	5.8m	37.0m	+4.5

does this mean Sicko Mode has a chance at #1

[rockgolf]

Is Daniel Collins still around to update the title (and first post index) of this thread, or should 2019 predictions go to a new thread?

[yuh yuh]

Dylan :), very good mix! Enjoyed it!

[Dylan :)]

Dec 3, 2018 10:13:35 GMT -5 yuh yuh said:

Dylan :), very good mix! Enjoyed it!

Thank you so much!

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Dec 3, 2018 9:39:26 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Is Daniel Collins still around to update the title (and first post index) of this thread, or should 2019 predictions go to a new thread?

Apparently, not much. Last post I see from him was dated Nov 15 and that was his only post this month. So, I would agree on the latter unless he answers your post within this week at the latest. I mean, we would have two Hot 100 charts that count toward the 2019 Year-End as of tomorrow, so ...

[Dylan :)]

Or just ask a mod :)

[holyground13]

The list is apparently out
1. "God's Plan," Drake
2. "Perfect," Ed Sheeran
3. "Meant to Be," Bebe Rexha & Florida Georgia Line
4. "Havana," Camila Cabello Featuring Young Thug
5. "Rockstar," Post Malone Featuring 21 Savage
6. "Psycho," Post Malone Featuring Ty Dolla $ign
7. "I Like It," Cardi B, Bad Bunny & J Balvin
8. "The Middle," Zedd, Maren Morris & Grey
9. "In My Feelings," Drake
10."Girls Like You," Maroon 5 Featuring Cardi B

Interesting that The Middle finished at #8.

[tallen2001]

Mi Gente, Believer, and Powerglide made the YE

[xilch]

www.billboard.com/charts/year-end/2018/hot-100-songs

[CF15]

Nice, "IDGAF" made it! :)

[jarhys]

Believer!!!!!!!!!!

[Harx]

There was a point Say Something seemed likely to miss. Made it all the way to #85! 

[rockgolf]

Text version of Official Billboard list.

1 | God's Plan | Drake
2 | Perfect | Ed Sheeran
3 | Meant To Be | Bebe Rexha & Florida Georgia Line
4 | Havana | Camila Cabello Featuring Young Thug
5 | Rockstar | Post Malone Featuring 21 Savage
6 | Psycho | Post Malone Featuring Ty Dolla $ign
7 | I Like It | Cardi B, Bad Bunny & J Balvin
8 | The Middle | Zedd, Maren Morris & Grey
9 | In My Feelings | Drake
10 | Girls Like You | Maroon 5 Featuring Cardi B
11 | Nice For What | Drake
12 | Lucid Dreams | Juice WRLD
13 | Better Now | Post Malone
14 | Finesse | Bruno Mars & Cardi B
15 | Boo'd Up | Ella Mai
16 | New Rules | Dua Lipa
17 | Sad! | XXXTENTACION
18 | Never Be The Same | Camila Cabello
19 | Love Lies | Khalid & Normani
20 | No Tears Left To Cry | Ariana Grande
21 | Mine | Bazzi
22 | Thunder | Imagine Dragons
23 | Look Alive | BlocBoy JB Featuring Drake
24 | Delicate | Taylor Swift
25 | Yes Indeed | Lil Baby & Drake
26 | Friends | Marshmello & Anne-Marie
27 | Bad At Love | Halsey
28 | Taste | Tyga Featuring Offset
29 | Let You Down | NF
30 | No Limit | G-Eazy Featuring A$AP Rocky & Cardi B
31 | FEFE | 6ix9ine Featuring Nicki Minaj & Murda Beatz
32 | Tequila | Dan + Shay
33 | Feel It Still | Portugal. The Man
34 | MotorSport | Migos, Nicki Minaj & Cardi B
35 | I Like Me Better | Lauv
36 | Youngblood | 5 Seconds Of Summer
37 | Whatever It Takes | Imagine Dragons
38 | Ric Flair Drip | Offset & Metro Boomin
39 | I Fall Apart | Post Malone
40 | Pray For Me | The Weeknd & Kendrick Lamar
41 | Back To You | Selena Gomez
42 | Sicko Mode | Travis Scott
43 | Walk It Talk It | Migos Featuring Drake
44 | Gucci Gang | Lil Pump
45 | Him & I | G-Eazy & Halsey
46 | In My Blood | Shawn Mendes
47 | All The Stars | Kendrick Lamar & SZA
48 | Stir Fry | Migos
49 | Too Good At Goodbyes | Sam Smith
50 | Love. | Kendrick Lamar Featuring Zacari
51 | This Is America | Childish Gambino
52 | Nonstop | Drake
53 | Heaven | Kane Brown
54 | Bodak Yellow (Money Moves) | Cardi B
55 | Freaky Friday | Lil Dicky Featuring Chris Brown
56 | Gummo | 6ix9ine
57 | Plug Walk | Rich The Kid
58 | Wait | Maroon 5
59 | Be Careful | Cardi B
60 | Wolves | Selena Gomez X Marshmello
61 | Bartier Cardi | Cardi B Featuring 21 Savage
62 | God Is A Woman | Ariana Grande
63 | Big Bank | YG Featuring 2 Chainz, Big Sean & Nicki Minaj
64 | Sorry Not Sorry | Demi Lovato
65 | How Long | Charlie Puth
66 | Lights Down Low | MAX Featuring gnash
67 | Young Dumb & Broke | Khalid
68 | One Kiss | Calvin Harris & Dua Lipa
69 | Natural | Imagine Dragons
70 | You Make It Easy | Jason Aldean
71 | Shape Of You | Ed Sheeran
72 | I Get The Bag | Gucci Mane Featuring Migos
73 | No Brainer | DJ Khaled Featuring Justin Bieber, Chance The Rapper & Quavo
74 | Plain Jane | A$AP Ferg Featuring Nicki Minaj
75 | Sky Walker | Miguel Featuring Travis Scott
76 | Marry Me | Thomas Rhett
77 | Eastside | Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid
78 | Call Out My Name | The Weeknd
79 | King's Dead | Jay Rock, Kendrick Lamar, Future & James Blake
80 | Happier | Marshmello & Bastille
81 | Te Bote | Casper Magico, Nio Garcia, Darell, Nicky Jam, Ozuna & Bad Bunny
82 | Simple | Florida Georgia Line
83 | Lemon | N*E*R*D & Rihanna
84 | 1-800-273-8255 | Logic Featuring Alessia Cara & Khalid
85 | Say Something | Justin Timberlake Featuring Chris Stapleton
86 | I'm Upset | Drake
87 | Get Along | Kenny Chesney
88 | Moonlight | XXXTENTACION
89 | What Lovers Do | Maroon 5 Featuring SZA
90 | X | Nicky Jam x J Balvin
91 | Outside Today | YoungBoy Never Broke Again
92 | Trip | Ella Mai
93 | Dura | Daddy Yankee
94 | Changes | XXXTENTACION
95 | Mercy | Brett Young
96 | One Number Away | Luke Combs
97 | Powerglide | Rae Sremmurd & Juicy J
98 | IDGAF | Dua Lipa
99 | Mi Gente | J Balvin & Willy William Featuring Beyonce
100 | Believer | Imagine Dragons

[lazer]

Is that the official year-end chart?

[fhas]

Dec 4, 2018 13:18:18 GMT -5 inverse said:

IDGAF 49 PEAK YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!

Alright let's see how fhas did. The numbers are how much higher or lower than they were predicted

1 - God's Plan (=)
2 - Perfect (=)
3 - Meant To Be (=)
4 - Havana (=)
5 - Rockstar (+1)
6 - Psycho (-1)
7 - I Like It (=)
8 - The Middle (+2)
9 - In MY Feelings (-1)
10 - Girls Like You (-1)
11 - Nice For What (=)
12 - Lucid Dreams (=)
13 - Better Now (=)
14 - Finesse (+1)
15 - Boo'd Up (-1)
16 - New Rules (+1)
17 - SAD! (-1)
18 - Never Be The Same (+1)
19 - Love Lies (-1)
20 - No Tears Left To Cry (+1)
21 - Mine (-1)
22 - Thunder (+1)
23 - Look Alive (-1)
24 - Delicate (=)
25 - Yes Indeed (=)
26 - Friends (+1)
27 - Bad At Love (+1)
28 - Taste (-2)
29 - Let You Down (+1)
30 - No Limit (+4)
31 - Fefe (-2)
32 - Tequila (-2)
33 - Feel It Still (+5)
34 - MotorSport (+2)
35 - I Like Me Better (-2)
36 - Youngblood (-4)
37 - Whatever It Takes (=)
38 - Ric Flair Drip (+1)
39 - I Fall Apart (+3)
40 - Pray For Me (+1)
41 - Back To You (-1)
42 - Sicko Mode (-7)
43 - Walk It Talk It (=)
44 - Gucci Gang (=)
45 - Him & I (+1)
46 - In My Blood (+1)
47 - All The Stars (+4)
48 - Stir Fry (+2)
49 - Too Good At Goodbyes (+3)
50 - Love (-2)
51 - This Is America (-2)
52 - Nonstop (-7)
53 - Heaven (=)
54 - Bodak Yellow (+1)
55 - Freaky Friday (-1)
56 - Gummo (+1)
57 - Plug Walk (+2)
58 - Wait (+4)
59 - Be Careful (+1)
60 - Wolves (+1)
61 - Bartier Cardi (+2)
62 - God Is A Woman (-4)
63 - Big Bank (-7)
64 - Sorry Not Sorry (=)
65 - How Long (+1)
66 - Lights Down Low (+1)
67 - Young, Dumb & Broke (+1)
68 - One Kiss (+1)
69 - Natural (-4)
70 - You Make It Easy (+2)
71 - Shape Of You (+2)
72 - I Get The Bag (+4)
73 - No Brainer (+1)
74 - Plain Jane (+6)
75 - Sky Walker (+3)
76 - Marry Me (+3)
77 - Eastside (-6)
78 - Call Out My Name (+3)
79 - King's Dead (+5)
80 - Happier (-10)
81 - Te Bote (-6)
82 - Simple (-5)
83 - Lemon (-1)
84 - 1-800-273-8255 (+5)
85 - Say Something (+10)
86 - I'm Upset (+1)
87 - Get Along (-4)
88 - Moonlight (-2)
89 - What Lovers Do (+1)
90 - X (-2)
91 - Outside Today (+7)
92 - Trip (-7)
93 - Dura (+4)
94 - Changes (=)
95 - Mercy (-3)
96 - One Number Away (-3)
97 - Powerglide (+6)
98 - IDGAF (+1)
99 - Mi Gente (+9)
100 - Believer (+9)

Pretty good! Average margin of error was 2.4, but honestly that's misleading for how close this was. First of all that stuff from 14 to 23 was just bad luck, all those songs were way too close, and the big problem was that the later songs were weighed less than was predicted, causing displacement, so while the songs from How Long to One Kiss were sorted out completely perfectly they were all off by 1, and that happened many times throughout. 16 songs correct spot.

Wait... actually they couted only 52 weeks for this year. Please, compare the week 52 prediction.

pulsemusic.proboards.com/post/6807988/thread

[rockgolf]

Yup, it's the official list.

And holy crap! fhas is right! It looks like they completely left off the Nov 24 chart! Use that to compare and he's damn near perfect!

[inverse]

Repeaters!

Havana: 96 - 4
Rockstar: 56 - 5
Thunder: 51 - 22
Feel It Still: 45 - 33
Too Good At Goodbyes: 77 - 49
Bodak Yellow: 24 - 54
Sorry Not Sorry: 47 - 64
Young, Dumb & Broke: 78 - 67
Shape Of You: 1 - 71
I Get The Bag: 93 - 72
1-800-273-8255: 31 - 84
What Lovers Do: 97 - 89
Mi Gente: 50 - 99
Believer: 9 - 100