Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[inverse]

Oh they only counted 52? That's awk. Where did they say that?

[Deleted]

So it looks like the songs that peaked earlier in the year did much better, which makes songs like Broken and I'm A Mess to miss. Sucks on them.

[samo🦕]

Welp...time to update my playlist again, seeing as week 53 isn't actually the last week for predictions.

[Deleted]

So every year that there are 53 weeks, the last week always gets left out and won't be counting towards any year end list. They did this in 2013 too I think.

[Deleted]

I also wish that they count it so that I'm A Mess and Broken get in because it doesn't feel right having 2 2017 hits at 100 and 99.

[tallen2001]

I’m glad Powerglide made the YE and I’m A Mess and broken missed it.

[rockgolf]

This raises the inevitable question: 

Will the Nov 24, 2017 chart be included in the 2019 Year-end, or will it be dropped altogether?

[jtd Thee Stallion]

Someone help me as I am lazy, what are the first ten songs to miss? (Besides I’m a Mess & broken, which both suck)

[inverse]

1 - God's Plan (=)
2 - Perfect (=)
3 - Meant To Be (=)
4 - Havana (=)
5 - Rockstar (=)
6 - Psycho (=)
7 - I Like It (=)
8 - The Middle (=)
9 - In MY Feelings (=)
10 - Girls Like You (=)
11 - Nice For What (=)
12 - Lucid Dreams (=)
13 - Better Now (=)
14 - Finesse (=)
15 - Boo'd Up (=)
16 - New Rules (=)
17 - SAD! (=)
18 - Never Be The Same (=)
19 - Love Lies (=)
20 - No Tears Left To Cry (+1)
21 - Mine (-1)
22 - Thunder (+1)
23 - Look Alive (-1)
24 - Delicate (=)
25 - Yes Indeed (=)
26 - Friends (=)
27 - Bad At Love (=)
28 - Taste (=)
29 - Let You Down (=)
30 - No Limit (=)
31 - Fefe (=)
32 - Tequila (=)
33 - Feel It Still (+4)
34 - MotorSport (+1)
35 - I Like Me Better (-2)
36 - Youngblood (-2)
37 - Whatever It Takes (-1)
38 - Ric Flair Drip (=)
39 - I Fall Apart (+2)
40 - Pray For Me (=)
41 - Back To You (-2)
42 - Sicko Mode (+1)
43 - Walk It Talk It (-1)
44 - Gucci Gang (=)
45 - Him & I (=)
46 - In My Blood (=)
47 - All The Stars (+3)
48 - Stir Fry (+1)
49 - Too Good At Goodbyes (+3)
50 - Love (-3)
51 - This Is America (-3)
52 - Nonstop (-1)
53 - Heaven (=)
54 - Bodak Yellow (+1)
55 - Freaky Friday (-1)
56 - Gummo (=)
57 - Plug Walk (=)
58 - Wait (+3)
59 - Be Careful (-1)
60 - Wolves (=)
61 - Bartier Cardi (+2)
62 - God Is A Woman (=)
63 - Big Bank (-4)
64 - Sorry Not Sorry (=)
65 - How Long (=)
66 - Lights Down Low (=)
67 - Young, Dumb & Broke (=)
68 - One Kiss (+1)
69 - Natural (-1)
70 - You Make It Easy (=)
71 - Shape Of You (=)
72 - I Get The Bag (+2)
73 - No Brainer (-1)
74 - Plain Jane (+5)
75 - Sky Walker (+2)
76 - Marry Me (+2)
77 - Eastside (-1)
78 - Call Out My Name (+3)
79 - King's Dead (+5)
80 - Happier (=)
81 - Te Bote (-8)
82 - Simple (-7)
83 - Lemon (-1)
84 - 1-800-273-8255 (+4)
85 - Say Something (+9) (Biggest Miss)
86 - I'm Upset (=)
87 - Get Along (-4)
88 - Moonlight (-3)
89 - What Lovers Do (=)
90 - X (-3)
91 - Outside Today (+5)
92 - Trip (-1)
93 - Dura (+2)
94 - Changes (-1)
95 - Mercy (-5)
96 - One Number Away (-4)
97 - Powerglide (+5)
98 - IDGAF (=)
99 - Mi Gente (+6)
100 - Believer (+6)

48/100. That's more like it someone else can calculate the avg error doing all the rest of this twice was enough of a headache lol. Edit: 1.43

[rockgolf]

fhas : that's insanely close.

Every one of the top 19 exactly right. 26 of the top 30 exactly right, and the remaining 4 off by one position each.

[samo🦕]

And here's the playlist, actually finalised this time. I'm also creating one for the YE that I'll update this post with.

Edit: Here it is!

[CF15]

Funny how "What Lovers Do" was higher on 2018 than on 2017.

[tallen2001]

I’m glad that IDGAF actually made it in.

[samo🦕]

Dec 4, 2018 13:48:27 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

fhas : that's insanely close.


Every one of the top 19 exactly right. 24 of the top 30 exactly right, and the remaining 6 off by one position each.

I'm pretty sure it's 26/30, which is even more impressive, unless I'm missing something or it was edited.

Dec 4, 2018 13:38:04 GMT -5 jtd Thee Stallion said:

Someone help me as I am lazy, what are the first ten songs to miss? (Besides I’m a Mess & broken, which both suck)

1. I'm A Mess (predicted to be 97)
2. All Girls Are The Same (99)
3. broken (100)
4. Chun-Li (101)
5. APEHSIT (103)
6. New Freezer (104)
7. Drowns the Whiskey (107)
8. Sit Next to Me (108)
9. I Love It (109)
10. Beautiful (110)
Note: I'm using the predicted positions for week 52 of the predictions, since week 53 wasn't counted for the YE.

also yaaaassss @ IDGAF making it in

[tallen2001]

I might go ahead and work on ranking all the songs that made the YE for the inevitable 2018 YE rankdown.

[Deleted]

Glad Believer and Powerglide somehow managed to make the 2018 year end list, although I do wish Broken made it as well.

[flextamcsignals]

Do we have definitive proof that only 52 weeks were counted? I don’t think looking at someone’s prediction after 52 weeks is enough.

[lyhom]

Dec 4, 2018 14:29:40 GMT -5 flextamcsignals said:

Do we have definitive proof that only 52 weeks were counted? I don’t think looking at someone’s prediction after 52 weeks is enough.

this isn't "definitive" but Daryl the Beryl has been posting his calculations of the rock radio year end charts in the rock section, and he tends to be quite accurate as he uses spin counts directly from nielsen's bds radio source

the published year end charts on billboard matched up with his 52-week predictions on first glance lmao

[Deleted]

Apeshit, All Girls Are The Same, and Drip Too Hard missed. Thank god!

[inverse]

Also fun fact for the 5th time in a row the #99 song was not predicted to be in the top 100. It's been predicted at 102, 108, 101, 101, and now 105.

Anyway thanks to fhas for keeping this thread alive, average margin of error was 1.43 which is the second closest yet! (after georgetherunner's legendary 0.79 in 2016)

[yuh yuh]

Yas No Tears Left To Cry top 20!

[Golden Bluebird]

Dec 4, 2018 14:29:40 GMT -5 flextamcsignals said:

Do we have definitive proof that only 52 weeks were counted? I don’t think looking at someone’s prediction after 52 weeks is enough.

Billboard usually releases an article about their Year-End lists every year. In these articles, they usually reveal the weeks at which a particular chart year starts and ends. The Year-End article for this week hasn't been released yet but it might soon enough, so if you want definitive proof on whether or not only 52 weeks were counted, just wait until the article is out.

[jtd Thee Stallion]

Dec 4, 2018 14:39:25 GMT -5 @levitation said:

Apeshit, All Girls Are The Same, and Drip Too Hard missed. Thank god!

Drip Too Hard is making next year so..

[Leo ✔]

WHY. THE. FUCK. MI GENTE AND BELIEVER MADE IT AND NOT I'M A MESS AND BROKEN!?!?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Dec 4, 2018 13:31:05 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

I’m glad Powerglide made the YE and I’m A Mess and broken missed it.

The other song that was predicted by fhas to make it and didn't was All Girls Are The Same. In exchange, we had Believer and Mi Gente repeat.

[inverse]

I mean seems like that's all good

I'm A Mess - bad
Broken - very bad
AGATS - One of the worst songs to chart this year

Believer - decent
Powerglide - good
Mi Gente - bad but better than those other 3

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

According to the article I posted in the Year-End 2018 thread only 52 weeks' worth of Hot 100 charts counted toward the 2018 Year-End given that the cutoff charts were dated November 17, 2018.

[rockgolf]

Dec 4, 2018 14:29:40 GMT -5 flextamcsignals said:

Do we have definitive proof that only 52 weeks were counted? I don’t think looking at someone’s prediction after 52 weeks is enough.

Yep. From www.billboard.com/articles/events/year-in-music-2018/8488621/drake-top-artist-taylor-swift-reputation-top-album-2018?utm_source=twitter


Billboard’s year-end music recaps are based on chart performance on Billboard’s charts dated Dec. 2, 2017, to Nov. 17, 2018. The year-end Top Artists category ranks the best-performing acts of the year based on activity on the Billboard 200 albums tally and the Billboard Hot 100 songs list, as well as streaming, social media and Billboard Boxscore data. Data registered before or after a title’s chart run is not considered in these standings. That methodology detail, and the December-to-November time period, account for some of the differences between these lists and the calendar-year recaps that are independently compiled by Nielsen Music.

[fhas]

I'm so happy that I was more accurate than I thought. The song that I had the most doubt about its YE placement was Ric Flair Drip because I had it much higher than the previous predictors but I got RFD exactly at #38. 48/100 is exactly what George had in 2016. He was better in the 51-100 range and I was better in the top 50.

so damn happy with God's Plan at #1 and rockstar in the top five! Two of the most legendary rap songs ever!

[fhas]

2003: In Da Club
2008: Low
2013: Thrift Shop
2018: God's Plan

Looking forward to 2023!