Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Deleted]

So why did Billboard throw a whole week away for nothing?

[CF15]

Dec 6, 2018 18:23:48 GMT -5 @levitation said:

So why did Billboard throw a whole week away for nothing?

I don't think it's being thrown away - just carried over to 2019, instead.

[rockgolf]

Dec 6, 2018 18:25:07 GMT -5 CF15 said:

Dec 6, 2018 18:23:48 GMT -5 @levitation said:

So why did Billboard throw a whole week away for nothing?

I don't think it's being thrown away - just carried over to 2019, instead.

Improbable. 2019 is already a 53 week year. They're not going to make it even longer. 

[mako]

Dec 6, 2018 14:35:18 GMT -5 lukulele said:

My Top 100 songs of 2018
(Newer songs and Songs that came out in 2017 aren't as highly ranked)

Is this list from your Spotify top songs?

[livelightning]

I don't understand why billboard didn't count the last week of November. Pretty stupid decision.

[iHype.]

If they were going to be throwing away weeks, then they should have went and threw away the entire December 2017, and started doing things on a calendar year basis. But I digress.

[rockgolf]

Most likely reasons, not that I necessarily agree with the decision:

• Publishing deadlines. While I'm sure they've got most of these lists automated, somebody's still got to format all these lists, write the articles and get them ready for a year-end issue that I imagine is their biggest seller of the year.
• Publicity deadlines. Releasing this list first gives Billboard a boost in all entertainment media.
  
• The year-end actually covered 52 charts. That's 364 days, or in practical terms a full year. Same thing'll happen next year too in all likelihood. Since the first chart is dated Dec 1, they'll probably cut off at the 52nd chart of the year (Nov 23), rather than the 53rd (Nov 30).
• And the 4th and most important point (and hear me out on this). It doesn't matter a damn to most people. "Most" as in everybody in the world except the 30 or so people who posted on this thread. And maybe not half of them. There's only a small fraction of the general populace who care what the #1 song of the year is. The number of people who are concerned that some song was listed at #84 when with the next week's result  it would have gone to #77 is infinitesimal. If you've read this far, you're in that group. But, likely, that's it.

As someone pointed out, "I Think I Love You" was a huge #1 hit in 1971. Top five of the year big. But because of when it charted, it didn't make either the 1971 or 1972 top 100 chart. Never appeared at all. Nobody cared. Not even David Cassidy.

[Kris]

Glove Slap make the title 2019 thx

[rockgolf]

Dec 8, 2018 7:47:24 GMT -5 Kris said:

Glove Slap make the title 2019 thx

And use fhas Nov 17 list as the link for 2018.

pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/136215/hot-100-year-predictions-2018?page=316&scrollTo=6807988

[rockgolf]

Post-game analysis

I've compared my results to those of the actual Billboard year-end list.

It's as good as I've ever done, and I'm quite happy with my results. But nowhere close to the accuracy of those like fhas . So I'm trying to figure how to improve. That 3rd column is the difference between the BB position and mine. The brighter the red (like Happier and Sicko Mode), the more I overstated where a song would be, stronger blues (like Tequila, I Like Me Better, IDGAF and Dura) identify underestimates.

What I've "diagnosed" is that I'm understating points on songs that spend lots of weeks under #40, and overstating more recent tracks still on the chart at the time of the year end. My "prescription" is that I'm going to adjust my formula for year-end predictions going forward by adding 10 points for every week songs are on the chart during the Billboard calendar year. I'll see next year if that has improved my accuracy.

[rockgolf]

It's Dec. 8, 2018. About time we had our first "Year-end 2019 to date" list, isn't it?

Scores in +000+ format are still charting, those in -000- format are not on the chart. Obviously, most songs this early in the year are still on.

I suspect the results by Dec. 2019 will differ.

For those wondering how the top two are determined, I give "bonus" points for extended runs at #1, #2 & #3, so although both songs have spend a week each at #1 & #2, Ariana wins because of her longer streak at #1, even though that was in fiscal 2018.

[Albie]

Y'all like numbers right? Well, don't forget to send in your votes people!  PMAs 2018 voting closes tomorrow!  Deadline is December 9 at 11:59 PM PST. 

And don't forget to vote in the poll for LTA (Hall of Fame) and to include your ranks (#1-#8) for Pulse's Choice with your ballot!

[lukulele]

Dec 7, 2018 23:10:36 GMT -5 mako said:

Dec 6, 2018 14:35:18 GMT -5 lukulele said:

My Top 100 songs of 2018
(Newer songs and Songs that came out in 2017 aren't as highly ranked)

Is this list from your Spotify top songs?

Roughly I made some switch's tho

[Albie]

Here you go. And for LTA its in the previous post.

[mako]

I'll also be predicting the YE, which I will post at the end of the chart year.

[fhas]

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - December 8th 2018

Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000

#	+/-	Song	Points	Sales	Airplay	On-Demand	YouTube	Programmed	Total Streams	+/- (%)
1	+1	SICKO MODE	32,500	24.0k	65.1m	18.7m	12.5m	5.8m	37.2m	+4.6
2	-1	thank u, next	31,300	18.0k	39.5m	23.5m	15.8m	3.1m	42.5m	-5.3
3	=	Happier	28,600	16.7k	107.2m	11.0m	5.5m	3.1m	19.8m	-5.1
4	=	Without Me	27,500	29.0k	65.0m	14.5m	7.5m	2.9m	25.0m	-5.1
5	+1	High Hopes	25,800	19.4k	113.8m	6.1m	3.6m	2.5m	12.3m	+0.6
6	+1	Mo Bamba	23,700	9.7k	21.5m	19.1m	14.7m	1.6m	35.5m	-6.8
7	+3	ZEZE	23,500	7.9k	30.4m	17.6m	12.5m	3.8m	33.9m	+2.2
8	+1	Drip Too Hard	22,000	5.4k	22.5m	20.9m	9.0m	2.1m	32.0m	-7.0
9	-1	Girls Like You	21,700	8.0k	80.2m	5.7m	8.2m	1.8m	18.8m	-10.5
10	-5	Lucid Dreams	21,300	5.7k	50.4m	11.0m	9.2m	6.2m	26.6m	-17.2

Sources:

Hot 100's article
Billboard Chart Beat
HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand)
HDD's Revenue Chart
Kworb's Overall AI
YouTube Insights
Pandora Top Spins Chart
@chartdata (Twitter)

[fhas]

Highlights of the week:

- SICKO MODE: second Hot 100 #1 of the Streaming Era that never reached 40k points (SAD! - 36.1k peak; SICKO MODE - 37.4k peak);
- New peak in points: High Hopes;

[fhas]

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - December 8, 2018

[Leo ✔]

Where are those who complained about Sales still in the formula? Those "dead" sales help Sick Mode to reach #1 on Billboard :sip2:

[fhas]

2018 chart year - Hot 100 #1s ranked by raw points
(Billboard used raw points for its YE chart) - Dec. 2, 2017 - Nov. 17, 2018

[brady47]

^Damn, other than Drake & Ed Sheeran, "This Is America" had huge weeks at #1

Kind of underwhelming it was below Top 50 on the year end

[brady47]

Also mess at "Girls Like You" 7 weeks at #1 being in the weakest 8 weeks lol

[inverse]

Crazy that the beefiest week of the year had the 38th strongest #1

[fhas]

Dec 9, 2018 17:42:09 GMT -5 inverse said:

Crazy that the beefiest week of the year had the 38th strongest #1

That week the difference between #1 and #3 was 328 points. That's probably the closest since the All Of Me/Happy/Problem week in 2014.

July 14:

1. Nice For What - 40,664 points
- 38th strongest #1 of the year

2. Nonstop - 40,515 points
- 26th strongest #2 of the year

3. I Like It - 40,336 points
- 11th strongest #3 of the year

4. God's Plan - 36,389 points
- 6th strongest #4 of the year

5. Girls Like You - 33,735 points
- 3rd strongest #5 of the year

6. In My Feelings - 33,509 points
- strongest #6 of the year

7. I'm Upset - 29,636 points
- strongest #7 of the year

8. Emotionless - 29,371 points
- strongest #8 of the year

9. Don't Matter To Me - 28,534 points
- strongest #9 of the year

10. SAD! - 28,338 points
- strongest #10 of the year

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Most of the strongest of the year from that week were from Scorpion, not surprisingly.

[T. Eddy]

Here's my absolute newbie early predictions/observations for 2019 based off of nothing but trends on the charts and what I think will happen:

I wasn’t sure whether or not to post this considering my lack of experience in doing this, but a lot of this will become irrelevant tomorrow if I don’t post this now, and I’m not about to waste 4 hours of typing. Odds are I'll get at least some of these predictions, if not most of them wrong, mainly because I've never done this before, but we'll see. I'll only include songs that are charting in the week of December 8th, 2018.

Definitely caught between years:
I'm a Mess(would've been able to sneak in this year in the bottom 10 if it were released a couple of weeks earlier, will go recurrent or fall out very soon)
I Love It(Fell too fast to make this year, and will be gone from the hot 100 entirely probably next week)
She Got the Best of Me(Narrowly missed this year, and is currently headed downwards with no rebound in sight, also late into its run)
Ring(Late into its run, and I don't see anything that'll make it unexpectedly take off or have the ridiculously good longevity it would need if it remains stable)
You Say(Never had the peaks needed to make last year, and now that it's several weeks into its run, it won't make 2019 unless it becomes a sleeper hit and manages to avoid going recurrent)

Possibly caught between years:
Lose It(It is somewhat late in its run, but it's picking up on radio, so this might sneak in)
Uproar(Hard to tell since it has been jumping up and down for weeks now, I guess we'll see)
Broken(It seems stable right now, but we'll have to see how long it'll last in 2019)
Speechless(It may have taken a hit this week, but it's doing really well in country charts, and I can see it making 2019 if it has Tequila-like longevity)
Shallow(Has a chance of sneaking in if radio picks it up more)
Beautiful(It's stable and gaining on radio, but was also ~16 weeks into its chart run when the 2019 chart year started, so it's a tossup)

Making 2019 despite missing 2018:
Drip Too Hard(Yes Indeed has above average longevity, and I can see Drip Too Hard having it too)
High Hopes(It's only trending upwards from here. It's not a question of if it'll land in 2019, but where)
Mo Bamba(Stable and currently in the top 10)
Breathin(Currently stable in the top 20 and doing well on radio, I think it's a safe bet even if it's in the middle of its chart run right now)

Other songs that are pretty much guaranteed for 2019:
Thank U, Next(Pretty obvious)
Sicko Mode(Current #1, and it's doing well enough to be a shoe in for the year end)
Happier(Strong on airplay, yet not entirely propped up by it, so it has more well-rounded strength)
Without Me(At #4 and still gaining on radio)
ZEZE(Another one of those streaming powerhouses)
Wake Up in the Sky(In the top 20, and doing better on the radio than I expected)
Trip(About halfway through its run, so I can see this making it in low)
Sunflower(Slowly growing and in the top 20)
Eastside(Has well rounded strength in radio, sales, and streaming)
Taki Taki(Was a little shaky early on, but it's gaining on radio and currently has presence in all 3 categories)
Leave Me Alone(Strong on streaming, and seems likely to at least crack the top 20)

Songs that are likely to make 2019:
Girls Like You(It may be on the way out, but plenty of songs make it with only the tail ends of their runs, but could miss if it collapses)
Lucid Dreams(See note for Girls Like You)
Better Now(Might not be in the top 10 anymore, but it's pretty stable in the top 20, although that might change)
Youngblood(See note for Better Now)
Money(So far is having a run similar to other second tier Cardi hits like Bartier Cardi and Be Careful, which both made 2018's YE)
Better(Growing on streaming, and has radio crossover potential)

Songs that might make 2019:
MIA(Depends on longevity, although it is gaining on radio)
I Like It(Falling off, but might fall off slowly enough to sneak in)
FEFE(So far is proving to have poor longevity like GUMMO before it, but it might be kept alive longer due to 6ix9ine's legal troubles)
In My Feelings(Drake songs vary in longevity, with songs like God's Plan having pretty strong stability, and others like I'm Upset not even making 20 weeks, but In My Feelings is definitely on the way out regardless)

Songs unlikely to make 2019:
Love Lies(Put here because it's late in its run and might get removed by the 52-25 rule)
Natural(Currently on week 19, and is having a run not too different from Whatever it Takes, but it has a chance)
God is a Woman(Late in its run, and other Ari songs are present to replace it)
Taste(Late in its run and headed out, might get replaced by Dip if that song catches on)
Yes Indeed(Took a big loss this week, and I foresee that trend continuing now that Drip Too Hard is the current Lil Baby track)
Nonstop(Took a big loss this week, and just doesn't seem to have the strength to last much longer)
Tequila(38 weeks into its run and is now finally falling out, plus we now have Speechless)
Lie(In the middle of its run, and although it is slowly gaining on the radio, it doesn't have the on-demand streaming that helped Let You Down become a hit)

Songs where it's too early to tell(but I could see possibly making it):
When the Party's Over(A bigger radio push could turn this into a smash hit, or it might also make it in low if it has good longevity like IDGAF)
Armed and Dangerous(We’ll have to see if it catches on or not, but I wouldn’t put any money on it)
Be Alright(Currently trending upwards and doing well in the rest of the world)
Consequences(Depends on whether or not it becomes a radio hit like Never Be the Same and Havana before it)
Dip(Chart run is all over the place so far, but it might take off like Taste, another song that didn't seem likely to crack the top 10 when it was still new, so we’ll have to see)
Good Girl(Might become one of those mid size country hits that you never think about that peaks in the top 40 and sneaks into the YE)
Best Shot, Last Shot, Sixteen, Burning Man(See the note for Good Girl)
(Insert song you think I forgot here)

Keep in mind that the 2019 charting year just started, so a lot of this can change as the year goes on. Also, since I am new at this and by no means an authority at this, I would appreciate some advice on how I can improve, although I'll be slow to respond since I'm busy with finals.

EDIT: Sorry it's long.

[dainita]

Prediction, Song, Artist, Best Position, Weeks

1-"Perfect"Ed Sheeran1 127
2-"Rockstar"Post Malone featuring 21 Savage 1 25
3-"Goods Plan Drake 1 26
4-"Girls Like You" Maroon 5 featuring Cardi B 1 25
5-"Lucid Dreams"Juice Wrld 2 24
6-"Havana" Camila Cabello featuring Young Thug 1 23
7-"Psycho"Post Malone featuring Ty Dolla Sign 1 21
8-"I Like It"Cardi B, Bad Bunny and J Balvin 1 21
9-"Bodak Yellow" Cardi B 1 20
10-"Meant to Be"Bebe Rexha featuring Florida Georgia Line 2 19
11-"Better Now"Post Malone 3 18
12-"Thunder" Imagine Dragons 4 18
13-"Nice for What" Drake 1 17
14-"The Middle" Zedd, Maren Morris and Grey 5 16
15-"Finesse" Bruno Mars and Cardi B 3 14
16-"Too Good at Goodbyes" ◁ Sam Smith 4 16
17-"Look Alive"BlocBoy JB featuring Drake 5 13
18-"Fefe"6ix9ine featuring Nicki Minaj and Murda Beatz 3 11

[flextamcsignals]

So....now that the year-end list has been officially released, can we change the name of this thread to "Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6"?

[mako]

Dec 10, 2018 22:33:09 GMT -5 flextamcsignals said:

So....now that the year-end list has been officially released, can we change the name of this thread to "Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6"?

Daniel Collins

[rainie]

Dec 10, 2018 14:46:17 GMT -5 dainita said:

Prediction, Song, Artist, Best Position, Weeks

1-"Perfect"Ed Sheeran1 127
2-"Rockstar"Post Malone featuring 21 Savage 1 25
3-"Goods Plan Drake 1 26
4-"Girls Like You" Maroon 5 featuring Cardi B 1 25
5-"Lucid Dreams"Juice Wrld 2 24
6-"Havana" Camila Cabello featuring Young Thug 1 23
7-"Psycho"Post Malone featuring Ty Dolla Sign 1 21
8-"I Like It"Cardi B, Bad Bunny and J Balvin 1 21
9-"Bodak Yellow" Cardi B 1 20
10-"Meant to Be"Bebe Rexha featuring Florida Georgia Line 2 19
11-"Better Now"Post Malone 3 18
12-"Thunder" Imagine Dragons 4 18
13-"Nice for What" Drake 1 17
14-"The Middle" Zedd, Maren Morris and Grey 5 16
15-"Finesse" Bruno Mars and Cardi B 3 14
16-"Too Good at Goodbyes" ◁ Sam Smith 4 16
17-"Look Alive"BlocBoy JB featuring Drake 5 13
18-"Fefe"6ix9ine featuring Nicki Minaj and Murda Beatz 3 11

What is this a prediction for? The YE chart that doesn’t go by calendar year and counts all weeks a song charted?