Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[samo🦕]

Dec 11, 2018 15:09:32 GMT -5 rainie said:

Dec 10, 2018 14:46:17 GMT -5 dainita said:

Prediction, Song, Artist, Best Position, Weeks

1-"Perfect"Ed Sheeran1 127
2-"Rockstar"Post Malone featuring 21 Savage 1 25
3-"Goods Plan Drake 1 26
4-"Girls Like You" Maroon 5 featuring Cardi B 1 25
5-"Lucid Dreams"Juice Wrld 2 24
6-"Havana" Camila Cabello featuring Young Thug 1 23
7-"Psycho"Post Malone featuring Ty Dolla Sign 1 21
8-"I Like It"Cardi B, Bad Bunny and J Balvin 1 21
9-"Bodak Yellow" Cardi B 1 20
10-"Meant to Be"Bebe Rexha featuring Florida Georgia Line 2 19
11-"Better Now"Post Malone 3 18
12-"Thunder" Imagine Dragons 4 18
13-"Nice for What" Drake 1 17
14-"The Middle" Zedd, Maren Morris and Grey 5 16
15-"Finesse" Bruno Mars and Cardi B 3 14
16-"Too Good at Goodbyes" ◁ Sam Smith 4 16
17-"Look Alive"BlocBoy JB featuring Drake 5 13
18-"Fefe"6ix9ine featuring Nicki Minaj and Murda Beatz 3 11

What is this a prediction for? The YE chart that doesn’t go by calendar year and counts all weeks a song charted?

I was confused at first too, but it's a chart showing the most weeks spent in the top 10 by any song.

[rockgolf]

Dec 11, 2018 15:09:32 GMT -5 rainie said:

Dec 10, 2018 14:46:17 GMT -5 dainita said:

What is this a prediction for? The YE chart that doesn’t go by calendar year and counts all weeks a song charted?

dainita originally printed this as their predictions in a separate thread about 2 weeks ago. I suggested it be move here, so it got re-posted.

[tanooki]

Moving my predictions over here because I don't like my other thread being in personal charts lol


Week 3: 12/15/18

1. thank u, next 1415
2. SICKO MODE 1099
3. Without Me 993
4. Happier 938
5. High Hopes 828
6. Mo Bamba 763
7. Drip Too Hard 737
8. ZEZE 730
9. Girls Like You 709
10. Lucid Dreams 687
11. Better Now 578
12. breathin 561
13. Youngblood 548
14. All I Want For Christmas is You 531
15. Wake Up In The Sky 488
16. Trip 470
17. Sunflower 465
18. Eastside 461
19. MIA 429
20. Love Lies 415
21. Taki Taki 404
22. Money 394
23. Natural 380
24. Leave Me Alone 366
25. Shallow 362

26. Beautiful 346
27. I Like It 346
28. Better 330
29. God is a woman 327
30. Taste 324
31. Speechless 318
32. broken 316
33. She Got the Best of Me 294
34. It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 292
35. FEFE 291
36. Uproar 291
37. Dangerous 28
38. Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 272
39. A Holly Jolly Christmas 264
40. Best Shot 250
41. Going Bad 247
42. Drunk Me 246
43. In My Feelings 236
44. Ring 263
45. BAD! 243
46. Lie 241
47. Arms Around You 225
48. Lost in Japan 224
49. when the party's over 233
50. Armed and Dangerous 221

51. Yes Indeed 210
52. Last Christmas 206
53. Nonstop 205
54. Close Friends 205
55. That's On Me 204
56. Tequila 198
57. Lose It 198
58. Fine China 195
59. Smile (Living My Best Life) 193
60. Be Alright 187
61. Backin' It Up 183
62. STOOPID 182
63. No Stylist 181
64. Boo'd Up 181
65. Burning Man 179
66. This Feeling 174
67. MAMA 171
68. KIKA 168
69. Consequences 165
70. Ella Quiere Beber 162
71. Good Girl 159
72. TIC TOC 155
72. Sixteen 155
74. You Say 152
75. Close To Me 149

76. WAKA 148
77. Topanga 143
78. What's Free 143
79. 10 Freaky Girls 137
80. I'm A Mess 134
81. 1400 / 999 Freestyle 130
82. Rich 127
83. Hangin' On 126
84. Talk To Me 123
85. The Christmas Song 122
86. Dip 121
87. On Me 120
88. Never Recover 120
89. lovely 113
90. Space Cadet 113
91. Blue Tacoma 112
92. I Love It 109
93. Don't Come Out the House 108
94. Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer 108
95. Best Part 107
96. Falling Down 103
97. Last Shot 103
98. You 100
99. Noticed 99
100. ocean eyes 98

SPOILER: Click to show

{Week 2}
1. SICKO MODE 701
2. thank u, next 693
3. Happier 628
4. Without Me 609
5. High Hopes 550
6. Mo Bamba 530
7. Lucid Dreams 509
8. Drip Too Hard 502
9. Girls Like You 495
10. ZEZE 489
11. Better Now 415
12. Youngblood 382
13. breathin 362
14. Wake Up In The Sky 340
15. Trip 322
16. Sunflower 312
17. Eastside 312
18. MIA 299
19. All I Want For Christmas is You 290
20. Love Lies 289
21. Taki Taki 272
22. Natural 270
23. Money 270
24. Shallow 258
25. I Like It 250

26. Leave Me Alone 250
27. God is a woman 240
28. Beautiful 240
29. In My Feelings 236
30. Taste 236
31. broken 226
32. Speechless 218
33. Better 216
34. Yes Indeed 210
35. FEFE 208
36. She Got the Best of Me 208
37. Uproar 206
38. Nonstop 205
39. Tequila 198
40. Lose It 198
41. Ring 186
42. BAD! 183
43. Boo'd Up 181
44. Best Shot 174
45. Lie 171
46. Dangerous 171
47. Drunk Me 167
48. when the party's over 166
49. Arms Around You 164
50. Armed and Dangerous 162

SPOILER: Click to show

{Week 1}
Week 1: 12/1/18

1. thank u, next 349
2. SICKO MODE 343
3. Happier 317
4. Without Me 308
5. Lucid Dreams 274
6. High Hopes 268
7. Mo Bamba 267
8. Girls Like You 260
9. Drip Too Hard 249
10. ZEZE 231
11. Better Now 210
12. Youngblood 198
13. breathin 179
14. Wake Up In The Sky 177
15. Trip 165
16. Sunflower 158
17. Eastside 158
18. MIA 150
19. Love Lies 146
20. Natural 140

[Deleted]

I hope AIWFCIY makes the 2019 year end.

[Mr. Thonk Eyes]

fhas Do you know what the average #1 through #5 were for the year?

[fhas]

Dec 11, 2018 19:26:16 GMT -5 Mr. Thonk Eyes said:

fhas Do you know what the average #1 through #5 were for the year?

#1 --- 52,300 points
#2 --- 39,400
#3 --- 35,700
#4 --- 32,000
#5 --- 29,100
#6 --- 27,200
#7 --- 25,300
#8 --- 24,300
#9 --- 23,300
#10 -- 22,600

[rockgolf]

Dec 11, 2018 18:51:52 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Week 3: 12/15/18


52. Last Christmas 206
85. The Christmas Song 122
94. Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer 108

If any of those songs actually fall below #50, they'll automatically drop off the Hot 100 as per Billboard rules.

[kcdawg13]

Dec 11, 2018 19:22:01 GMT -5 @pete said:

I hope AIWFCIY makes the 2019 year end.

If y'all would continue streaming this masterpiece after Christmas then it would probably make it.

[rockgolf]

Dec 11, 2018 19:22:01 GMT -5 @pete said:

I hope AIWFCIY makes the 2019 year end.

If it can last another week in the top ten, it can get to about 600-700 points on my weighted system. Last year, you needed at least 900 points to make the top 100.

So, sadly, I expect not.

[mako]

Wait, so who's the main predictor for this year?

[rockgolf]

Dec 13, 2018 4:20:33 GMT -5 mako said:

Wait, so who's the main predictor for this year?

There's no doubt in my mind, it's fhas. He's got it down to a science.

[tanooki]

If fhas doesn't wanna do it, I'll do the main predicting

[Kris]

Kurt any chance of a title change?

Anyone see TUN having longevity after it's peak?

Also any sleeper hits in the making? Haven't been following new music that closely lately.

[mako]

I'll be updating my predictions every week, but I'm never gonna take the reigns of the main predictor again.

[velaxti]

Dec 9, 2018 18:12:07 GMT -5 fhas said:

Dec 9, 2018 17:42:09 GMT -5 inverse said:

Crazy that the beefiest week of the year had the 38th strongest #1

That week the difference between #1 and #3 was 328 points. That's probably the closest since the All Of Me/Happy/Problem week in 2014.

July 14:

6. In My Feelings - 33,509 points
- strongest #6 of the year

7. I'm Upset - 29,636 points
- strongest #7 of the year

8. Emotionless - 29,371 points
- strongest #8 of the year

9. Don't Matter To Me - 28,534 points
- strongest #9 of the year

10. SAD! - 28,338 points
- strongest #10 of the year

The titles of these songs "In My Feelings", "I'm Upset", "Emotionless", "Don't Matter To Me" and "SAD!"... Those are 5 such "emo" song titles all charting next to each other haha.

[rockgolf]

Here's my Week 3 (Dec 15, 2018) evaluation. Based on last year's number's Ariana's the only one to guarantee a position in the 2019 year-end.

[mako]

^What does +n+ and -n- mean

[rockgolf]

Dec 15, 2018 17:37:59 GMT -5 mako said:

^What does +n+ and -n- mean

+ means that the song is still on the chart.

[Dylan :)]

Another year end mashup I really like, especially the bridge

[rockgolf]

Dylan :): I can't even begin to imagine how much work goes into that! Wow...

[fhas]

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - December 15th 2018

Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000

#	+/-	Song	Points	Sales	Airplay	On-Demand	YouTube	Programmed	Total Streams	+/- (%)
1	+1	thank u, next	62,500	43.0k	57.0m	33.4m	56.3m	4.0m	93.8m	+99.5
2	-1	SICKO MODE	36,100	25.0k	65.7m	21.9m	15.8m	5.4m	43.3m	+10.9
3	+1	Without Me	35,900	50.0k	71.7m	17.8m	10.7m	4.1m	32.7m	+30.4
4	-1	Happier	29,300	17.0k	110.5m	11.1m	6.0m	3.1m	20.3m	+2.6
5	=	High Hopes	26,800	18.0k	120.8m	6.3m	3.8m	2.5m	12.7m	+3.8
6	NEW	Going Bad	25,300	17.0k	0.0m	32.1m	3.8m	0.0m	36.0m
7	+7	All I Want For Christmas Is You	22,200	15.0k	30.4m	17.6m	5.5m	5.3m	28.5m	+23.5
8	-1	ZEZE	21,800	7.6k	32.4m	16.5m	9.8m	3.8m	30.2m	-7.1
9	-1	Drip Too Hard	21,600	5.9k	25.4m	19.3m	9.2m	2.1m	30.7m	-2.1
10	-4	Mo Bamba	21,500	9.0k	21.9m	16.6m	13.4m	1.6m	31.7m	-9.5

Sources:

Hot 100's article
Billboard Chart Beat
HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand)
HDD's Revenue Chart
Kworb's Overall AI
YouTube Insights
Pandora Top Spins Chart
@chartdata (Twitter)

[fhas]

Highlights of the week:

- thank u, next: strongest #1 since In My Feelings (5th week at #1 - 71,000 points - Aug. 18, 2018);
- SICKO MODE: strongest #2 since Girls Like You (5th week at #2 - 37,900 points - Sep. 15, 2018);
- Without Me: strongest #3 since I Like It (36,100 points - Sep. 8, 2018);
- New peak in points: thank u, next, Without Me, High Hopes;

[fhas]

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - December 15, 2018

[tanooki]

Week 4: 12/22/18. So with the system I use to calculate this, Believer received exactly 1500 points for 2018, which I'll use as my cutoff. thank u, next is definitely locked for 2019 and the top 5 songs are getting close. Christmas songs are also gaining pretty decently (even though it won't last) and 2018 continues to wash away.
Total 2019 Songs: 151

1. thank u, next 1875
--
2. SICKO MODE 1419
3. Without Me 1368
4. Happier 1235
5. High Hopes 1115
6. Drip Too Hard 968
7. Mo Bamba 949
8. ZEZE 946
9. Girls Like You 910
10. Lucid Dreams 844
11. All I Want For Christmas is You 774
12. breathin 738
13. Better Now 723
14. Sunflower 703
15. Wake Up In The Sky 688
16. Youngblood 674
17. Eastside 635
18. Trip 604
19. MIA 557
20. Love Lies 535
21. Taki Taki 534
22. Money 516
23. Leave Me Alone 490
24. Natural 474
25. It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 469

26. Shallow 464
27. Beautiful 454
28. I Like It 450
29. Better 440
30. Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 434
31. Speechless 430
32. Going Bad 413
33. Taste 413
34. God is a woman 412
35. broken 406
36. A Holly Jolly Christmas 402
37. Uproar 383
38. She Got the Best of Me 382
39. Dangerous 375
40. BAD! 357
41. Best Shot 333
42. Drunk Me 327
53. Last Christmas 324
44. Lie 306
45. Arms Around You 303
46. Lost in Japan 303
47. when the party's over 299
48. FEFE 291
49. Armed and Dangerous 289
50. Be Alright 259

51. Close Friends 257
52. That's On Me 255
53. The Christmas Song 254
54. Backin' It Up 252
55. Fine China 248
56. Smile (Living My Best Life) 246
57. KIKA 243
58. This Feeling 238
59. No Stylist 236
60. In My Feelings 236
61. Ring 236
62. Burning Man 236
63. Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer 234
64. MAMA 231
65. You Say 229
66. Consequences 228
67. Close To Me 225
68. What's Free 217
69. Good Girl 216
70. Sixteen 214
71. Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 214
72. Ella Quiere Beber 213
73. Yes Indeed 210
74. TIC TOC 207
75. WAKA 206

76. Nonstop 205
77. Tequila 198
78. Lose It 198
79. Talk To Me 184
80. STOOPID 182
81. Boo'd Up 181
82. On Me 176
83. Dip 169
84. Pure Cocaine 169
85. Last Shot 157
86. Girl Like You 157
87. You 156
88. Calling My Spirit 153
89. Topanga 143
90. 10 Freaky Girls 137
91. 24/7 135
92. I'm A Mess 134
93. 1400 / 999 Freestyle 130
94. Rich 127
95. Hangin' On 126
96. Good Form 125
97. Nothing Breaks Like a Heart 125
98. Nuketown 120
99. Never Recover 120
100. lovely 113

[mako]

Dec 18, 2018 22:56:29 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Total 2019 Songs: 151

how come i have 155 songs in my spreadsheet for 2019? it probably doesnt matter, just wondering

[tanooki]

Dec 19, 2018 1:58:17 GMT -5 mako said:

Dec 18, 2018 22:56:29 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Total 2019 Songs: 151

how come i have 155 songs in my spreadsheet for 2019? it probably doesnt matter, just wondering

Did you have any carryovers from 2018? I can recheck my thing to see if I miscounted or missed a song

[tanooki]

Did you start with the 11/24 chart by any chance?

[mako]

Dec 19, 2018 10:36:25 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Did you start with the 11/24 chart by any chance?

I started with the 12/01 chart.

[tanooki]

Dec 20, 2018 1:34:17 GMT -5 mako said:

Dec 19, 2018 10:36:25 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Did you start with the 11/24 chart by any chance?

I started with the 12/01 chart.

I'm probably missing some Meek Mill or Christmas then

[rockgolf]

Dec 18, 2018 22:56:29 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Week 4: 12/22/18. So with the system I use to calculate this, Believer received exactly 1500 points for 2018, which I'll use as my cutoff. thank u, next is definitely locked for 2019 and the top 5 songs are getting close. Christmas songs are also gaining pretty decently (even though it won't last) and 2018 continues to wash away.

I'll be posting my update on Saturday, if I have the time. I think we're going to be very similar all year. i hope fhas joins in the fun too.