Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^On the latter point, the more the merrier!

[rockgolf]

Well, I was right that tanooki & I have similar rankings, albeit different points. Very similar. Not surprising this early in the "year".

+000+ = Song is still on the charts.

[crazyb]

pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/181120/2018-hot-100-rankdown-january

I posted the rankdown last year and I'll do it again this year. rank the year-end chart

[fhas]

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - December 22nd 2018

Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000

#	+/-	Song	Points	Sales	Airplay	On-Demand	YouTube	Programmed	Total Streams	+/- (%)
1	=	thank u, next	42,100	25.0k	77.6m	26.7m	19.4m	4.5m	50.7m	-32.7
2	+1	Without Me	34,600	37.0k	82.4m	16.4m	10.2m	5.5m	32.2m	-3.6
3	-1	SICKO MODE	32,400	13.5k	67.7m	20.4m	13.4m	5.4m	39.3m	-10.2
4	=	Happier	28,800	18.0k	106.9m	10.4m	6.2m	3.6m	20.3m	-1.8
5	=	High Hopes	28,700	19.0k	126.7m	7.7m	4.0m	2.3m	14.0m	+7.0
6	+1	All I Want For Christmas Is You	22,200	14.0k	34.5m	16.6m	5.3m	6.1m	28.1m	-0.1
7	+10	Sunflower	22,000	16.0k	45.5m	14.1m	6.7m	3.1m	24.1m	+20.7
8	+1	Drip Too Hard	21,700	5.0k	30.2m	19.5m	8.1m	2.1m	29.8m	+0.8
9	-1	ZEZE	20,900	6.0k	36.3m	15.2m	8.7m	3.8m	27.9m	-4.4
10	+1	Girls Like You	20,600	6.7k	70.6m	6.2m	8.4m	4.8m	19.6m	-2.4

Sources:

Hot 100's article
Billboard Chart Beat
HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand)
HDD's Revenue Chart
Kworb's Overall AI
YouTube Insights
Pandora Top Spins Chart
@chartdata (Twitter)

[fhas]

Highlights of the week:

- All I Want For Christmas Is You: weakest #6 since I began to track the points for all the songs in the top 10 (May 27, 2017 - Despacito's 1st week at #1);
- New peak in points: High Hopes, Sunflower;

[fhas]

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - December 22, 2018

[85la]

Sorry this is going back to the 2018 year-end chart, but I was wondering if the points from the 11 weeks Perfect had during the 2017 chart year were added to its total, if it would overall end up being a bigger hit than God's Plan?

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Dec 23, 2018 23:27:28 GMT -5 85la said:

Sorry this is going back to the 2018 year-end chart, but I was wondering if the points from the 11 weeks Perfect had during the 2017 chart year were added to its total, if it would overall end up being a bigger hit than God's Plan?

Yes.

[mikerivera]

2019 Year End Projection (4/52 weeks) 
Songs lock at 1,000 points. No songs have locked yet, though TU,N will probably lock next week. Points are based on real life data. I’m only posting the top 20 for now, but I will expand in the coming weeks. Album bombs have really been affecting the lower part of the charts though. Also I’m not calculating Christmas songs because those songs won’t have a chance at the year end anyways. * are for songs that also made last year’s year end. 

Ranking	Song	Artist	Points
1	Thank U, Next	Ariana Grande	847
2	Sicko Mode*	Travis Scott	662
3	Without Me	Halsey	636
4	Happier	Marshmello & Bastille	584
5	High Hopes	Panic! At the Disco	533
6	Mo Bamba	Shock Wes	454
7	Zeze	Kodak Black ft. Travis Scott & Offset	447
8	Drip Too Hard	Lil Baby & Gunna	446
9	Girls Like You*	Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B	439
10	Lucid Dreams*	Juice WRLD	433
11	Better Now*	Post Malone	410
12	Breathin	Ariana Grande	409
13	Sunflower	Post Malone & Swae Lee	403
T-14	Wake Up in the Sky	Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black	402
T-14	YoungBlood*	5 Seconds of Summer	402
16	Eastside*	Benny Blanco, Halsey &  Khalid	384
17	Trip*	Ella Mai	373
18	Mía	Bad Bunny ft. Drake	353
19	Taki Taki	DJ Snake ft. Selena Gomez, Ozuna & Cardi B	348
20	Love Lies*	Khalid & Normani	343

[mikerivera]

Sorry for the bad formatting btw. I’m still learning how this website works

[insen_13]

Have AIWFCIY been part of any year-end Hot 100 ranking?

[tanooki]

Dec 24, 2018 23:58:33 GMT -5 insen_13 said:

Have AIWFCIY been part of any year-end Hot 100 ranking?

has not

[insen_13]

Thanks 😢

[tanooki]

Week 5: 12/29/18. Merry Christmas yall, here's a little gift. Without Me, SICKO MODE, and Happier are all locked. All I Want For Christmas Is You enters the top ten, but we'll see if it lasts. With debuts from this week, imagine by Ariana Grande is at 101. Are you guys fine with how I format this or do you want me to format it to look like lists from previous years?

1. thank u, next 2300
2. Without Me 1749
3. SICKO MODE 1738
4. Happier 1520
--
5. High Hopes 1398
6. Drip Too Hard 1223
7. ZEZE 1194
8. Mo Bamba 1139
9. Girls Like You 1107
10. All I Want For Christmas is You 1055
11. Sunflower 1024
12. Lucid Dreams 978
13. breathin 912
14. Wake Up In The Sky 890
15. Better Now 861
16. Youngblood 828
17. Eastside 817
18. Trip 726
19. It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 715
20. MIA 685
21. Taki Taki 664
22. Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 653
23. Love Lies 641
24. Money 636
25. A Holly Jolly Christmas 615

26. Leave Me Alone 608
27. Natural 568
28. Beautiful 558
29. Shallow 556
30. I Like It 550
31. Better 542
32. Going Bad 539
33. Speechless 538
34. Uproar 469
35. She Got the Best of Me 466
36. Dangerous 457
37. Last Christmas 450
38. The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) 440
39. BAD! 440
40. Best Shot 413
41. Taste 413
42. God is a woman 412
43. Drunk Me 408
44. broken 406
45. Lie 306
46. Arms Around You 376
47. Lost in Japan 359
48. Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer 358
49. when the party's over 358
50. Armed and Dangerous 364

51. Be Alright 331
52. Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 330
53. Backin' It Up 323
54. Close Friends 311
55. This Feeling 307
56. Burning Man 306
57. You Say 305
58. Fine China 304
59. Close To Me 303
60. KIKA 302
61. Smile (Living My Best Life) 301
62. No Stylist 298
63. Consequences 294
64. FEFE 291
65. Sixteen 282
66. Good Girl 279
67. MAMA 279
68. Ella Quiere Beber 270
69. That's On Me 255
70. Talk To Me 245
71. Calling My Spirit 242
72. In My Feelings 236
73. Ring 236
74. Pure Cocaine 234
75. Girl Like You 221

76. What's Free 217
77. You 216
78. Last Shot 215
79. Sleigh Ride 212
80. Here Comes Santa Claus 210
81. Yes Indeed 210
82. Feliz Navidad 208
83. TIC TOC 207
84. WAKA 206
85. Nonstop 205
86. Nothing Breaks Like a Heart 204
87. Tequila 198
88. Lose It 198
89. 24/7 184
90. STOOPID 182
91. Boo'd Up 181
92. On Me 176
93. Good Form 175
94. Dip 169
95. Nuketown 168
96. lovely 166
97. whoa (mind in awe) 164
98. Topanga 143
99. 10 Freaky Girls 137
100. I'm A Mess 134

[rockgolf]

How close are my predictions and Tanooki's? We even have the same song at #98 thru #100!

[tanooki]

It'll be interesting to see how our predictions compare to each other in the next coming weeks as we start to see the chart really shape into 2019 instead of leftovers from 18, especially since you use an inverse system and I'm using real points

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

The possible re-entries for the 2019 YE:

Already locked:

SICKO MODE
Happier

Locked within a few weeks:

Girls Like You
Lucid Dreams
Better Now
Youngblood
Eastside

Possible:

Trip
Natural
Love Lies
I Like It

[mako]

Is AIWFCIY possible to get locked?

[rockgolf]

Dec 27, 2018 0:04:55 GMT -5 mako said:

Is AIWFCIY possible to get locked?

Only remotely. It would need at least one more week in the top 10 (which I don't  expect) and the next week in the top 20 (a longshot). In the alternative, it could add points in early Nov. 2019

[tanooki]

Dec 27, 2018 0:04:55 GMT -5 mako said:

Is AIWFCIY possible to get locked?

I don't see it happening

[insen_13]

really rooting for a year-end placement for AIWFCIY

[mako]

2019 Year-End Predictions (brought to you by z) (December Edition, 9% building)
I will be posting an update monthly.
I'll be setting the cutoff at 180k, which wasn't the total points of Believer last year (177k) but it still works.

Position. Song Points
1. Thank U, Next 196,860
--CUTOFF--180,000--
2. Sicko Mode 153,910
3. Without Me 150,250
4. Happier 135,190
5. High Hopes 123,470
6. Drip Too Hard 106,190
7. Zeze 105,710
8. Mo Bamba 102,410
9. Girls Like You 100,950
10. Sunflower 97,570
11. Lucid Dreams 95,400
12. AIWFCIY 95,330
13. Better Now 88,900
14. Breathin 88,610
15. Wake Up In The Sky 87,930
16. Youngblood 87,170
17. Eastside 83,570
18. Trip 76,740
19. Mia 72,730
20. Taki Taki 70,610
21. It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year 68,810
22. Money 68,050
23. Love Lies 67,290
24. Rockin Around The Christmas Tree 66,030
25. Leave Me Alone 63,460
26. A Holly Jolly Christmas 62,010
27. Jingle Bell Rock 60,590
28. Natural 59,840
29. Beautiful 57,170
30. Shallow 57,150
31. I Like It 56,870
32. Speechless 56,740
33. Better 56,010
34. Going Bad 55,950
35. The Christmas Song 55,170
36. Uproar 50,310
37. She Got The Best Of Me 49,430
38. Last Christmas 47,950
39. Dangerous 47,260
40. Bad! 46,320
41. Best Shot 42,920
42. Taste 42,780
43. Broken 42,590
44. God Is A Woman 42,300
45. Drunk Me 40,750
46. Rudolph The Red-Nosed Reindeer 39,620
47. Arms Around You 37,870
48. Armed And Dangerous 37,170
49. When The Party's Over 36,960
50. You Say 36,690
51. Let It Snow, Let It Snow 36,340
52. Lost In Japan 36,260
53. Be Alright 33,310
54. Close Friends 32,960
55. Backin it Up 32,890
56. Talk To Me 32,560
57. Burning Man 32,440
58. Fine China 32,070
59. Smile 31,930
60. This Feeling 31,900
61. Lie 31,690
62. No Stylist 31,390
63. Consequences 30,960
64. Kika 30,740
65. Fefe 30,430
65. Close To Me 30,430
67. Sixteen 30,170
68. Good Girl 30,090
69. Mama 29,430
70. Ella Quiere Beber 29,300
71. Ring 27,670
72. That's On Me 27,080
73. Calling my Spirit 26,360
74. Pure Cocaine 24,460
75. Sleigh Ride 24,140
76. Feliz Navidad 23,760
77. Here Comes Santa Claus 23,750
78. You 23,600
79. Girl Like You 23,110
80. What's Free 22,830
81. Last Shot 22,770
82. In My Feelings 22,720
83. Uptown Vibes 22,610
84. Waka 22,510
85. Tic Toc 22,250
86. Nothing Breaks Like a Heart 21,740
87. 24/7 20,930
88. Yes Indeed 20,450
89. Nonstop 20,190
90. Tequila 19,810
91. Good Form 19,540
92. Lose It 19,510
93. On Me 18,890
94. Nuketown 18,690
95. Stoopid 18,440
96. Boo'd Up 18,220
97. Woah 18,020
98. Dip 17,690
99. Lovely 17,050
100. Imagine 16,040

[mako]

Something I noticed, i had tanooki and rockgolf 's #98-#100 at #101-#103

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

by January, these songs will be locked:

SICKO MODE
Without Me
Happier
High Hopes
Drip Too Hard
ZEZE
Mo Bamba
Girls Like You
Sunflower
Lucid Dreams
Better Now
Breathin'
Wake Up In The Sky
Youngblood
Eastside
Trip
Mia
Taki Taki
Love Lies (possible given that the Christmas songs drop and then Year-End boost thing)
Money
Natural (same situation as Love Lies)
Beautiful (please stick)
Shallow
I Like It (see Love Lies and Natural)

[tanooki]

I still have no fucking clue how Believer made it last year

[livelightning]

Dec 28, 2018 11:55:41 GMT -5 tanooki said:

I still have no f**king clue how Believer made it last year

Earlier hits were probably weighted more. That's the only explanation I can think of.

[rockgolf]

Dec 28, 2018 11:55:41 GMT -5 tanooki said:

I still have no f**king clue how Believer made it last year

Using the BB cut-offs, Believer charted in 2017 at 25-30-33-40-25-16-30-26-28-29. On my inverse points that was enough for 1009 points. Well above the 920 cutoff.

[mako]

rockgolf Bad At love should be Bad! at #40, just noticed lol

[rockgolf]

Dec 29, 2018 3:31:15 GMT -5 mako said:

rockgolf Bad At love should be Bad! at #40, just noticed lol

#@$%ing auto-fill! It will be fixed next week. Thanks!

[fhas]

December 29, 2018 - 6/52 weeks (11.54%)
Based on chart performance on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart dated Nov. 24, 2018, to Nov. 16, 2019.

Locked last week:
---> thank u, next (Ariana Grande)

Locked this week:
---> SICKO MODE (Travis Scott --- #42 in 2018)
---> Without Me (Halsey)

Estimated Cutoff ---> 180,000 points (margin of error: 7% --- 167,400-192,600)
*I think the song at #100 will be around 180k points, but it's possible that it ends up with 167.4k-192.6k