Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[samo🦕]

yayayayayayay

I could've sworn someone already made a playlist for this, but I can't find it in this thread (and it hasn't been updated/posted recently) so here's a playlist for the YE predictions so far:

[mikerivera]

2019 YE Projections (5/52 weeks)
As I said last week, I don’t calculate Christmas songs, and I set the lock at 1,000 points because at that point it’s beyond the margin of error. With that in mind, Thank U, Next is now locked, and Sicko Mode and Without Me will probably be within striking distance of locking next week. Last year’s cutoff based on my projections was Changes with 873 (Believer had 885), so any song that passes that threshold is within striking distance of locking. I’ll probsbly expand to the top 25 or top 30 next week. 

Rank	Song	Artist	Points
1	Thank U, Next	Ariana Grande	1,043
2	Sicko Mode*	Travis Scott	827
3	Without Me	Halsey	813
4	Happier*	Marshmello & Bastille	731
5	High Hopes	Panic! At the Disco	679
6	Zeze	Kodak Black ft. Travis Scott & Offset	568
7	Drip Too Hard	Lil Baby & Gunna	559
8	Mo Bamba	Sheck Wes	554
9	Sunflower	Post Malone & Swae Lee	551
10	Girls Like You*	Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B	540
11	Lucid Dreams*	Juice WRLD	527
T-12	Breathin	Ariana Grande	506
T-12	Better Now*	Post Malone	506
14	Wake Up in the Sky	Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars  & Kodak Black	505
15	YoungBlood*	5 Seconds of Summer	499
16	Eastside*	Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid	482
17	Trip*	Ella Mai	460
18	Mía	Bad Bunny ft. Drake	443
19	Taki Taki	DJ Snake ft. Selena Gomez, Ozuna & Cardi B	439
20	Money	Cardi B	425

[tallen2001]

I’m really rooting for Close To Me, Nothing Breaks Like A Heart, and Sweet But Psycho to become big hits.

[kcdawg13]

A lot of predictors this year holy

[mikerivera]

Quick question: how do you know that the Billboard year starts at November 24, as opposed to December 1?

Dec 29, 2018 14:53:53 GMT -5 fhas said:

December 29, 2018 - 6/52 weeks (11.54%)
Based on chart performance on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart dated Nov. 24, 2018, to Nov. 16, 2019. 

[fhas]

Dec 29, 2018 17:27:29 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Dec 29, 2018 14:53:53 GMT -5 fhas said:

December 29, 2018 - 6/52 weeks (11.54%)
Based on chart performance on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart dated Nov. 24, 2018, to Nov. 16, 2019.

Quick question: how do you know that the Billboard year starts at November 24, as opposed to December 1?

I'm not sure, but I think they won't ignore the Nov. 24 chart.

[mikerivera]

Dec 29, 2018 17:31:40 GMT -5 fhas said:

Dec 29, 2018 17:27:29 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

I'm not sure, but I think they won't ignore the Nov. 24 chart.

Alright, well then it’ll be interesting to see which of us end up using the correct timeframe at the end of the year

[mako]

Dec 29, 2018 17:24:44 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

A lot of predictors this year holy

I'm back baby

[kcdawg13]

Dec 29, 2018 18:05:20 GMT -5 mako said:

Dec 29, 2018 17:24:44 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

A lot of predictors this year holy

I'm back baby

I missed you babe.

Honestly I'm happy there's more predictors this year, last year was a mess with both of us switching around then fhas coming in later on. It just seems more healthy now.

[insen_13]

Dec 29, 2018 17:20:57 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

I’m really rooting for Close To Me, Nothing Breaks Like A Heart, and Sweet But Psycho to become big hits.

Nothing Breaks Like A Heart

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Dec 29, 2018 17:20:57 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

I’m really rooting for Close To Me, Nothing Breaks Like A Heart, and Sweet But Psycho to become big hits.

I can see Nothing Breaks Like A Heart easily locked first, then both Close To Me and Sweet But Psycho having an I Like Me Better-like run and eventually get locked.

[Deleted]

Dec 30, 2018 7:26:55 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Dec 29, 2018 17:20:57 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

I’m really rooting for Close To Me, Nothing Breaks Like A Heart, and Sweet But Psycho to become big hits.

I can see Nothing Breaks Like A Heart easily locked first, then both Close To Me and Sweet But Psycho having an I Like Me Better-like run and eventually get locked.

Nblah is def the least likely to get in given Miley longevity lately 

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Dec 30, 2018 7:43:36 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Dec 30, 2018 7:26:55 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

I can see Nothing Breaks Like A Heart easily locked first, then both Close To Me and Sweet But Psycho having an I Like Me Better-like run and eventually get locked.

Nblah is def the least likely to get in given Miley longevity lately 

It can end like Uptown Funk being successful (just imagine Mark Ronson pulling off 2 YE #1's), or it can end up like Miley's Malibu (it will hang below for a while, get a single-week push, then keeps on the lower half of the chart, while securing a spot on the 2019 YE, albeit low)

[samo🦕]

Dec 30, 2018 7:48:50 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Dec 30, 2018 7:43:36 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Nblah is def the least likely to get in given Miley longevity lately 

It can end like Uptown Funk being successful (just imagine Mark Ronson pulling off 2 YE #1's), or it can end up like Miley's Malibu (it will hang below for a while, get a single-week push, then keeps on the lower half of the chart, while securing a spot on the 2019 YE, albeit low)

Malibu went from like 60 straight to the top 10 on its second week tho

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Dec 30, 2018 7:53:32 GMT -5 samo🦕 said:

Dec 30, 2018 7:48:50 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

It can end like Uptown Funk being successful (just imagine Mark Ronson pulling off 2 YE #1's), or it can end up like Miley's Malibu (it will hang below for a while, get a single-week push, then keeps on the lower half of the chart, while securing a spot on the 2019 YE, albeit low)

Malibu went from like 60 straight to the top 10 on its second week tho

So the wrong was the hanging below the chart, but I think it will easily fall from the Hot 100 after getting the Top 10 run.

[Deleted]

Dec 30, 2018 7:53:32 GMT -5 samo🦕 said:

Dec 30, 2018 7:48:50 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

It can end like Uptown Funk being successful (just imagine Mark Ronson pulling off 2 YE #1's), or it can end up like Miley's Malibu (it will hang below for a while, get a single-week push, then keeps on the lower half of the chart, while securing a spot on the 2019 YE, albeit low)

Malibu went from like 60 straight to the top 10 on its second week tho

That's because she released it on Thursday so it went top ten after a full week of sales

[fhas]

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - December 29th 2018

Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000

#	+/-	Song	Points	Sales	Airplay	On-Demand	YouTube	Programmed	Total Streams	+/- (%)
1	=	thank u, next	39,200	23.0k	86.4m	23.0m	15.9m	4.5m	43.5m	-7.0
2	=	Without Me	35,400	37.0k	88.3m	17.1m	8.8m	5.9m	31.9m	+2.3
3	=	SICKO MODE	33,100	14.0k	67.1m	21.0m	14.0m	5.4m	40.6m	+2.2
4	+3	Sunflower	29,700	28.0k	46.4m	18.8m	12.2m	2.9m	34.1m	+34.7
5	-1	Happier	29,400	20.0k	105.7m	11.3m	5.9m	3.6m	20.9m	+2.2
6	-1	High Hopes	29,400	22.0k	125.5m	8.1m	4.2m	2.3m	14.7m	+2.3
7	-1	All I Want For Christmas Is You	27,000	13.0k	40.6m	22.6m	5.1m	6.8m	34.7m	+21.7
8	+1	ZEZE	24,300	8.0k	40.1m	19.2m	8.1m	3.8m	31.2m	+16.3
9	-1	Drip Too Hard	22,600	5.5k	33.7m	19.3m	9.0m	2.1m	30.4m	+3.7
10	+3	It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year	21,100	4.0k	26.4m	18.1m	0.3m	14.8m	33.3m	+10.8

Sources:

Hot 100's article
Billboard Chart Beat
HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand)
HDD's Revenue Chart
Kworb's Overall AI
YouTube Insights
Pandora Top Spins Chart
@chartdata (Twitter)

[fhas]

Highlights of the week:

- New peak in points: Sunflower, High Hopes, All I Want For Christmas Is You, It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year;

[fhas]

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - December 29, 2018

[rockgolf]

fhas : Is that a typo on the Streaming position for AIWFCIY? Should it be 4, not 44?

ETA: Nevermind. See below.

[Lux ◢ ◤]

Dec 30, 2018 13:04:53 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

fhas : Is that a typo on the Streaming position for AIWFCIY? Should it be 4, not 44?

That's High Hopes, not AIWFCIY

[inverse]

Dec 29, 2018 17:31:40 GMT -5 fhas said:

Dec 29, 2018 17:27:29 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

I'm not sure, but I think they won't ignore the Nov. 24 chart.

Unfortunately I think they will.

First of all, it doesn't make any sense for them to include it for 2019 and not 2018. The 2019 chart year has 53 weeks as well and so are they gonna count nov 24 and make 2019 a 54 week year? Or count nov 30 2019 for 2020 and make 2019 and 2020 53 week years? Doesn't make any sense.

Second of all, in 2013-2014 I'm pretty sure they cut the last week of the 2013 chart year and they didn't give it to 2014 because Daniel was doing the predictions for 2014 and he was pretty close overall, and some songs would have been thrown way off had the nov 30 2013 week been put in 2014, like WMU and Demons would have easily passed Let It Go and Wrecking Ball would have passed a ton of songs. Pretty sure they just don't count those weeks for year end charts, which sucks but what are you gonna do

[Mylo13 💜]

Dec 30, 2018 13:00:05 GMT -5 fhas said:

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - December 29, 2018

Geez, the top 8 streaming songs are in the top ten but not even the number 3 airplay song haha.

[feldspar905]

fhas how close  is leave me alone

[jtd Thee Stallion]

Dec 30, 2018 22:17:19 GMT -5 feldspar905 said:

fhas how close  is leave me alone

Hopefully nowhere near

[mikerivera]

Dec 30, 2018 22:17:19 GMT -5 feldspar905 said:

fhas how close  is leave me alone

I know you were asking fhas, but I currently have it at 400 points, which would put it at number 22 without the Christmas songs.

[tanooki]

hot diggety damn


with 12 million predictors this should be fun

[golfradio]

Going back to 2018, could it be that they weighted chart runs from before the streaming rule change more heavily? And that's why songs like IDGAF, Powerglide & Dura (among others) made it as opposed to later hits such as Drip Too Hard or Mo Bamba.

[fhas]

Dec 31, 2018 13:56:14 GMT -5 golfradio said:

Going back to 2018, could it be that they weighted chart runs from before the streaming rule change more heavily? And that's why songs like IDGAF, Powerglide & Dura (among others) made it as opposed to later hits such as Drip Too Hard or Mo Bamba.

The old formula had ~5% more points per song than the formula that I'm using since July but even then I underestimated songs from late-2017/early-2018.

[spicymapping]

I made a list for 2017 and it ended up being pretty close to right counting the differences between which December I count, so I decided to start my own list. Italics are for what mathematically would make sense, IE after 26 weeks it'd be the top 50 would be likely to make it. I'll put ones that beat #100 for last year in bold once it happens, it hasn't for me yet.

Edit: Oops, File was too small. It's readable if you click on it.