Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[mikerivera]

Dang, All I Want for Christmas rose up to number 3. And that was despite getting basically nothing the last two days of the last charting week. If Christmas had been on Thursday, would the song have gone to number 1?

[spicymapping]

Year End Predictions for 1/5! Cutting it down to 50 for the winter. Welcome new locks: Thank u, Next, Happier, Sicko Mode and Without Me!

[mako]

Dec 31, 2018 20:24:04 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Year End Predictions for 1/5! Cutting it down to 50 for the winter. Welcome new locks: Thank u, Next, Happier, Sicko Mode and Without Me!

Wait how did you finish it? The chart's not released yet

[tallen2001]

Dec 31, 2018 22:24:29 GMT -5 mako said:

Dec 31, 2018 20:24:04 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Year End Predictions for 1/5! Cutting it down to 50 for the winter. Welcome new locks: Thank u, Next, Happier, Sicko Mode and Without Me!

Wait how did you finish it? The chart's not released yet

Chart Data announced the rest of the chart positions on Twitter.

[mako]

Dec 31, 2018 22:44:47 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

Dec 31, 2018 22:24:29 GMT -5 mako said:

Wait how did you finish it? The chart's not released yet

Chart Data announced the rest of the chart positions on Twitter.

Oh, bless chart data

[rockgolf]

Dec 31, 2018 16:47:34 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

I made a list for 2017 and it ended up being pretty close to right counting the differences between which December I count, so I decided to start my own list. Italics are for what mathematically would make sense, IE after 26 weeks it'd be the top 50 would be likely to make it. I'll put ones that beat #100 for last year in bold once it happens, it hasn't for me yet.


Edit: Oops, File was too small. It's readable if you click on it.

Was the water too cold?

[rockgolf]

So with this week's version (including yesterday's Jan 5/19 chart) I've made a couple of changes.

I've added a "Last Week" column and a "+/-" column to identify the songs that are moving up the chart, and I'm limiting the listings to songs with over 500 points or are still on the chart. The 500 point limit will probably increase as the year goes on.

[tanooki]

Week 6: 1/5/19. High Hopes is locked and there are now 3 songs over 2k points which is cool. Goodbye Christmas <3

1. thank u, next 2730
2. Without Me 2152
3. SICKO MODE 2087
4. Happier 1842
5. High Hopes 1734
--
6. Drip Too Hard 1493
7. All I Want For Christmas is You 1431
8. ZEZE 1419
9. Sunflower 1364
10. Mo Bamba 1357
11. Girls Like You 1336
12. Lucid Dreams 1167
13. breathin 1111
14. Wake Up In The Sky 1101
15. Better Now 1058
16. Youngblood 1023
17. Eastside 1018
18. It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 965
19. Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 963
20. A Holly Jolly Christmas 906
21. Trip 854
22. Money 841
23. MIA 855
24. Taki Taki 850
25. Leave Me Alone 748

26. Love Lies 736
27. The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) 720
28. I Like It 676
29. Going Bad 671
30. Natural 671
31. Speechless 660
32. Last Christmas 643
33. Beautiful 643
34. Shallow 639
35. Better 623
36. Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer 580
37. Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 553
38. Uproar 548
39. She Got the Best of Me 547
40. Dangerous 530
41. BAD! 507
42. Best Shot 487
43. Drunk Me 479
44. Arms Around You 435
45. Armed and Dangerous 423
46. when the party's over 414
47. Taste 413
48. God is a woman 412
49. Lost in Japan 407
50. broken 406

51. Sleigh Ride 403
52. Be Alright 403
53. Here Comes Santa Claus 398
54. Feliz Navidad 395
55. Backin' It Up 389
56. You Say 384
57. Close To Me 378
58. Burning Man 363
59. This Feeling 362
60. Consequences 354
61. Fine China 353
62. No Stylist 350
63. Sixteen 340
64. Good Girl 332
65. Ella Quiere Beber 321
66. Close Friends 311
67. Talk To Me 308
68. Lie 306
69. Calling My Spirit 303
70. KIKA 302
71. Smile (Living My Best Life) 301
72. FEFE 291
73. MAMA 279
74. Girl Like You 275
75. You 271

76. Last Shot 264
77. Nothing Breaks Like a Heart 262
78. That's On Me 255
79. Home For the Holidays 253
80. In My Feelings 236
81. Ring 236
82. Pure Cocaine 234
83. It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas 229
84. White Christmas 222
85. lovely 218
86. What's Free 217
87. Yes Indeed 210
88. Happy X-Mas 210
89. TIC TOC 207
90. WAKA 206
91. Nonstop 205
92. Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) 200
93. Tequila 198
94. Lose It 198
95. imagine 196
96. 24/7 184
97. STOOPID 182
98. Boo'd Up 181
99. On Me 176
100. Good Form 175

[spicymapping]

Jan 1, 2019 12:57:48 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Dec 31, 2018 16:47:34 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

I made a list for 2017 and it ended up being pretty close to right counting the differences between which December I count, so I decided to start my own list. Italics are for what mathematically would make sense, IE after 26 weeks it'd be the top 50 would be likely to make it. I'll put ones that beat #100 for last year in bold once it happens, it hasn't for me yet.


Edit: Oops, File was too small. It's readable if you click on it.

Was the water too cold?

Almost, but it's fun anyways, I'll keep it up.

[Deleted]

Jan 1, 2019 15:23:44 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Week 6: 1/5/19. High Hopes is locked and there are now 3 songs over 2k points which is cool. Goodbye Christmas <3

1. thank u, next 2730
2. Without Me 2152
3. SICKO MODE 2087
4. Happier 1842
5. High Hopes 1734
--
6. Drip Too Hard 1493
7. All I Want For Christmas is You 1431
8. ZEZE 1419
9. Sunflower 1364
10. Mo Bamba 1357
11. Girls Like You 1336
12. Lucid Dreams 1167
13. breathin 1111
14. Wake Up In The Sky 1101
15. Better Now 1058
16. Youngblood 1023
17. Eastside 1018
18. It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 965
19. Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 963
20. A Holly Jolly Christmas 906
21. Trip 854
22. Money 841
23. MIA 855
24. Taki Taki 850
25. Leave Me Alone 748

26. Love Lies 736
27. The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) 720
28. I Like It 676
29. Going Bad 671
30. Natural 671
31. Speechless 660
32. Last Christmas 643
33. Beautiful 643
34. Shallow 639
35. Better 623
36. Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer 580
37. Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 553
38. Uproar 548
39. She Got the Best of Me 547
40. Dangerous 530
41. BAD! 507
42. Best Shot 487
43. Drunk Me 479
44. Arms Around You 435
45. Armed and Dangerous 423
46. when the party's over 414
47. Taste 413
48. God is a woman 412
49. Lost in Japan 407
50. broken 406

51. Sleigh Ride 403
52. Be Alright 403
53. Here Comes Santa Claus 398
54. Feliz Navidad 395
55. Backin' It Up 389
56. You Say 384
57. Close To Me 378
58. Burning Man 363
59. This Feeling 362
60. Consequences 354
61. Fine China 353
62. No Stylist 350
63. Sixteen 340
64. Good Girl 332
65. Ella Quiere Beber 321
66. Close Friends 311
67. Talk To Me 308
68. Lie 306
69. Calling My Spirit 303
70. KIKA 302
71. Smile (Living My Best Life) 301
72. FEFE 291
73. MAMA 279
74. Girl Like You 275
75. You 271

76. Last Shot 264
77. Nothing Breaks Like a Heart 262
78. That's On Me 255
79. Home For the Holidays 253
80. In My Feelings 236
81. Ring 236
82. Pure Cocaine 234
83. It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas 229
84. White Christmas 222
85. lovely 218
86. What's Free 217
87. Yes Indeed 210
88. Happy X-Mas 210
89. TIC TOC 207
90. WAKA 206
91. Nonstop 205
92. Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) 200
93. Tequila 198
94. Lose It 198
95. imagine 196
96. 24/7 184
97. STOOPID 182
98. Boo'd Up 181
99. On Me 176
100. Good Form 175

Nicki getting that year end smash 

[mako]

Just finished my 01/05 predictions, Without Me and Sicko Mode is now locked, plus AIWFCIY is 50k pts away from being locked. And holy damn I took great lengths in getting all the points right of all the Santa album bomb songs.

[mako]

Alright so we have
1. tanooki
2. rockgolf
3. mako (me, lol)
4. mikerivera
5. fhas
6. spicymapping

6 PREDICTORS HOLY CRAP
I'm hoping the predictions are more accurate than ever.

[mako]

Just realized this thread is 62k views away from 1 million views

[insen_13]

thank u, next
High Hopes
breathin'
Beautiful
Nothing Breaks Like A Heart

[Deleted]

Dec 30, 2018 22:17:19 GMT -5 feldspar905 said:

fhas how close  is leave me alone

Better do well cause it is one of the best songs of the year so far.

[feldspar905]

Dec 30, 2018 23:22:04 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Dec 30, 2018 22:17:19 GMT -5 feldspar905 said:

fhas how close  is leave me alone

I know you were asking fhas, but I currently have it at 400 points, which would put it at number 22 without the Christmas songs.

Thanks man its a fucking banger

[feldspar905]

i predict talk to me and you say are gonna be sleeper hits(you say especially has been doing fucking great)

[feldspar905]

also theres a video for nuketown coming and it came back on streaming,i can hope it becomes a hit too 

[T. Eddy]

I'll update the forecast that I made here last month when next week's hot 100 comes out, since by then the Christmas songs will all be gone. Not sure if I'll continue after then, but I might.

[fhas]

LAST WEEK'S ESTIMATED REAL POINTS - Billboard Hot 100 TOP 10 - January 5th 2019

Formula: sales/6 + airplay/7000 + paid streams/1500 + free streams/2250 + programmed streams/3000

#	+/-	Song	Points	Sales	Airplay	On-Demand	YouTube	Programmed	Total Streams	+/- (%)
1	=	thank u, next	39,800	43.0k	90.0m	18.5m	14.8m	4.4m	37.9m	+1.6
2	=	Without Me	37,400	47.0k	91.8m	16.3m	9.0m	6.6m	32.0m	+5.7
3	+4	All I Want For Christmas Is You	34,700	16.0k	24.2m	34.2m	7.3m	10.3m	51.9m	+28.6
4	-1	SICKO MODE	34,600	27.4k	67.7m	20.4m	10.6m	8.8m	39.9m	+4.7
5	-1	Sunflower	32,800	43.3k	47.2m	19.7m	12.1m	2.9m	34.9m	+10.6
6	=	High Hopes	32,200	39.7k	124.6m	7.9m	4.4m	2.3m	14.6m	+9.5
7	-2	Happier	30,900	32.2k	104.7m	10.6m	5.8m	3.6m	20.2m	+5.0
8	+5	Jingle Bell Rock	27,100	5.1k	18.0m	28.2m	2.7m	13.1m	44.2m	+30.1
9	+2	Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree	26,300	6.6k	19.9m	23.4m	2.8m	18.5m	44.9m	+25.9
10	+2	A Holly Jolly Christmas	25,100	3.4k	16.2m	25.5m	1.0m	16.0m	42.6m	+20.4

Sources:

Hot 100's article
Billboard Chart Beat
HDD's Streaming Songs Chart (On-Demand)
HDD's Revenue Chart
Kworb's Overall AI
YouTube Insights
Pandora Top Spins Chart
@chartdata (Twitter)

[fhas]

Highlights of the week:

- thank u, next: third song to top the Hot 100 during the Streaming Era (2013-19) while not being in the top 2 of any metric (Nice For What 3x, In My Feelings 2x);
- Without Me: strongest #2 since Girls Like You (37,900 points - Sep. 15, 2018);
- SICKO MODE: strongest #4 since... SICKO MODE (37,400 points - Aug. 18, 2018);
- Sunflower: strongest #5 since FEFE (35,200 points - Aug. 18, 2018);
- High Hopes: strongest #6 since In My Feelings (33,500 points - Jul. 14, 2018);
- Happier: strongest #7 since XO TOUR Llif3 (31,600 points - Jun. 24, 2017);
- Jingle Bell Rock: strongest #8 since Emotionless (29,400 points - Jul. 14, 2018);
- Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree: strongest #9 since Don't Matter To Me (28,500 points - Jul. 14, 2018);
- A Holly Jolly Christmas: strongest #10 since SAD! (28,300 points - Jul. 14, 2018);
- New peak in points: Without Me, All I Want For Christmas Is You, Sunflower, High Hopes, Happier, Jingle Bell Rock, Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree, A Holly Jolly Christmas;

[fhas]

Hot 100 - Component Breakdown - January 5, 2019

[T. Eddy]

Also just realized that AIWFCIY will set a billboard record next week; biggest drop off the hot 100. It will fall off the chart entirely from #3, beating the record that Prince and the Revolution's Purple Rain set when it fell off the hot 100 from #4 after returning for Prince's death.

[mikerivera]

2019 YE Projection (6/52) 
Without Me and Sicko Mode both locked this week. Happier and High Hopes are within striking distance. I’m expanding the number of songs to 25 this week. 

Rank	Song	Artist	Points
1	Thank U, Next	Ariana Grande	1,242
2	Without Me	Halsey	1,001
3	Sicko Mode*	Travis Scott	1,000
4	Happier*	Marshmello ft. Bastille	886
5	High Hopes	Panic! At the Disco	840
6	Sunflower	Post Malone & Swae Lee	715
7	Zeze	Kodak Black ft. Travis Scott & Offset	682
8	Drip Too Hard	Lil Baby & Gunna	679
9	Mo Bamba	Sheck Wes	668
10	Girls Like You*	Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B	657
11	Lucid Dreams*	Juice WRLD	620
12	Wake Up in the Sky	Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black	613
13	Breathin	Ariana Grande	604
14	Better Now*	Post Malone	603
15	YoungBlood*	5 Seconds of Summer	595
16	Eastside*	Benny Blanco, Halsey &  Khalid	581
17	Trip*	Ella Mai	542
18	Mía	Bad Bunny ft. Drake	532
19	Money	Cardi B	530
20	Taki Taki	DJ Snake ft. Selena Gomez, Ozuna & Cardi B	529
21	Love Lies*	Khalid & Normani	492
22	Leave Me Alone	Flipp Dinero	487
23	Natural*	Imagine Dragons	446
24	I Like It*	Cardi B ft. Bad Bunny & J Balvin	444
25	Speechless	Dan+Shay	440

[thelegends]

Could AIWFCIY make the year end list?

[gabe]

Jan 7, 2019 7:38:50 GMT -5 thelegends said:

Could AIWFCIY make the year end list?

I'm not a predictor, but based on everyone else's predictions, it won't have enough this year. If this upward trajectory continues next year, it's very possible that AIWFCIY could make it.

P.S. Huge thanks to all the predictors, the time and effort you put in is amazing! :)

[rockgolf]

Jan 7, 2019 7:38:50 GMT -5 thelegends said:

Could AIWFCIY make the year end list?

Assuming, as most expect, that it will completely drop from the Hot 100 this week, then only if it spends 2 weeks in the top 20 on the November 11th & 18th charts.

Frankly, not impossible. But unlikely.

[feldspar905]

Jan 7, 2019 4:37:09 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

2019 YE Projection (6/52) 
Without Me and Sicko Mode both locked this week. Happier and High Hopes are within striking distance. I’m expanding the number of songs to 25 this week. 

Rank	Song	Artist	Points
1	Thank U, Next	Ariana Grande	1,242
2	Without Me	Halsey	1,001
3	Sicko Mode*	Travis Scott	1,000
4	Happier*	Marshmello ft. Bastille	886
5	High Hopes	Panic! At the Disco	840
6	Sunflower	Post Malone & Swae Lee	715
7	Zeze	Kodak Black ft. Travis Scott & Offset	682
8	Drip Too Hard	Lil Baby & Gunna	679
9	Mo Bamba	Sheck Wes	668
10	Girls Like You*	Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B	657
11	Lucid Dreams*	Juice WRLD	620
12	Wake Up in the Sky	Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black	613
13	Breathin	Ariana Grande	604
14	Better Now*	Post Malone	603
15	YoungBlood*	5 Seconds of Summer	595
16	Eastside*	Benny Blanco, Halsey &  Khalid	581
17	Trip*	Ella Mai	542
18	Mía	Bad Bunny ft. Drake	532
19	Money	Cardi B	530
20	Taki Taki	DJ Snake ft. Selena Gomez, Ozuna & Cardi B	529
21	Love Lies*	Khalid & Normani	492
22	Leave Me Alone	Flipp Dinero	487
23	Natural*	Imagine Dragons	446
24	I Like It*	Cardi B ft. Bad Bunny & J Balvin	444
25	Speechless	Dan+Shay	440

[tanooki]

Week 7: 1/12/19. Yeah yeah yeah its early, bless chartdata. Anyway, Drip Too Hard, Sunflower, ZEZE, Girls Like You, and Mo Bamba are all locked! Also, thank u, next hits 3k points.

1. thank u, next 3106
2. Without Me 2550
3. SICKO MODE 2447
4. Happier 2154
5. High Hopes 2072
6. Drip Too Hard 1727
7. Sunflower 1725
8. ZEZE 1651
9. Girls Like You 1580
10. Mo Bamba 1547
--
11. All I Want For Christmas is You 1431
12. Lucid Dreams 1337
13. Wake Up In The Sky 1319
14. breathin 1296
15. Better Now 1287
15. Eastside 1245
16. Youngblood 1218
17. Money 1021
18. Taki Taki 1010
19. MIA 1005
20. Trip 988
21. It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 965
22. Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 963
23. A Holly Jolly Christmas 906
24. Leave Me Alone 884
25. Love Lies 862

26. Going Bad 809
27. I Like It 804
28. Natural 801
29. Speechless 792
30. Beautiful 767
31. Shallow 761
32. Better 743
33. The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) 720
34. She Got the Best of Me 665
35. Uproar 658
36. Last Christmas 643
37. Dangerous 619
38. Best Shot 593
39. Drunk Me 581
40. Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer 580
41. BAD! 572
42. Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 553
43. Arms Around You 515
44. Be Alright 503
45. Armed and Dangerous 502
46. You Say 496
47. Close To Me 492
48. Backin' It Up 481
49. when the party's over 481
50. Lost in Japan 471

51. Burning Man 453
52. This Feeling 447
53. Consequences 438
54. Sixteen 436
55. No Stylist 425
56. Good Girl 420
57. Fine China 414
58. Taste 413
59. God is a woman 412
60. broken 406
61. Sleigh Ride 403
62. TAlk tO Me 402
63. Here Comes Santa Claus 398
64. Feliz Navidad 395
65. Ella Quiere Beber 392
66. Calling My Spirit 380
67. Smile (Living My Best Life) 369
68. Close Friends 368
69. Girl Like You 358
70. KIKA 357
71. Nothing Breaks Like a Heart 348
72. You 347
73. Last Shot 346
74. Lie 306
75. Wow 301

76. Pure Cocaine 297
77. FEFE 291
78. lovely 280
79. MAMA 279
80. imagine 268
81. That's On Me 255
82. Home For the Holidays 253
83. Look Back at It 243
84. a lot 238
85. In My Feelings 236
86. Ring 236
87. This is It 230
88. It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas 229
89. Good Form 228
90. Nuketown 223
91. Dip 222
92. White Christmas 222
93. What's Free 217
94. whoa (mind in awe) 213
95. Yes Indeed 210
96. Happy X-Mas 210
97. Sweet But Psycho 208
98. TIC TOC 207
99. WAKA 206
100. Nonstop 205

[spicymapping]

1/12 Year End Prediction! High Hopes is now officially locked!