eidde
Gold Member
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Posts: 988
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Post by eidde on Nov 10, 2019 15:45:15 GMT -5
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Post by nathanalbright on Nov 10, 2019 15:56:52 GMT -5
Simon Falk just predicted Ballin to jump 10 spots to 21. Does that change anything or is it still probably gonna get caught between years? As of right now, it becomes more likely to make the YE list if (and only if) November 30, 2019 is counted in the 2019 chart year. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2019 15:58:00 GMT -5
Simon Falk just predicted Ballin to jump 10 spots to 21. Does that change anything or is it still probably gonna get caught between years? It will be most likely be caught between years if November 30th, 2019 is not counted towards the 2019 year end list. If the week is counted towards the list, it could have a chance but would need to surpass Walk Me Home (assuming On Chill and Hot knock off Robbery and Go Loko with that extra week).
Judging by Simon Falk's numbers, if Ballin' stays in the same position for the last 3 weeks, and November 30th is counted, it would end up with around 170130 points, just short of knocking out Walk Me Home at 170610 points, but it's within the margin error so it is possible for the song to make it.
With On Chill, Hot and now Ballin' looking likely to make the 2019 year end list if November 30th, 2019 is counted, that puts the cutoff exactly at This Is It using fhas/rimetm's numbers. The only other song that could potentially pass it is HIGHEST IN THE ROOM, but the song is bleeding on streaming and its radio gains are not fast enough to save the song from missing the 170K cutoff mark.
PS: I must be the only person on this thread that actively wants This Is It to make it, which is why I hope November 30th, 2019 isn't counted, because it's getting awfully close to being knocked out if it does get counted. However, I think On Chill and Ballin' are good songs that should also make the 2019 year end list, and unfortunately they can't without that extra week.
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GPMB
Gold Member
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Posts: 618 
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Post by GPMB on Nov 10, 2019 16:33:57 GMT -5
Easy answer to that, you know how sometimes Billboard will reveal a chart position on top 10 reveal day only for it to flip with an adjacent song (this happened to a couple of songs this week)? Well, in that case, they didn't notice that swapping 50 and 51 would make the new #51 not jive with recurrency. The same thing also happened to I Love It on the August 31, 2013 chart. OH YEAH i remember it happening to I Love It too but I never knew why until just now... I’m not always the smartest when it comes to charts |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2019 16:57:18 GMT -5
Easy answer to that, you know how sometimes Billboard will reveal a chart position on top 10 reveal day only for it to flip with an adjacent song (this happened to a couple of songs this week)? Well, in that case, they didn't notice that swapping 50 and 51 would make the new #51 not jive with recurrency. The same thing also happened to I Love It on the August 31, 2013 chart. OH YEAH i remember it happening to I Love It too but I never knew why until just now... I’m not always the smartest when it comes to charts I enjoyed I Love It by Icona Pop back then... I'm embarrassed by it now. It'd be pretty likely to make my Worst of 2013 list if I ever listened through that Year-End list. |
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GPMB
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Posts: 618
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Post by GPMB on Nov 10, 2019 17:10:11 GMT -5
OH YEAH i remember it happening to I Love It too but I never knew why until just now... I’m not always the smartest when it comes to charts I enjoyed I Love It by Icona Pop back then... I'm embarrassed by it now. It'd be pretty likely to make my Worst of 2013 list if I ever listened through that Year-End list. i still adore I Love It tbh, and it’s a serious contender for my favorite Charli song as well which is saying something since I love Charli |
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samo🦕
Diamond Member
not really a movie person
looking at the big sky
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Post by samo🦕 on Nov 10, 2019 17:58:36 GMT -5
oh yeah I Love It is still an iconic (no pun intended) bop and I will hear no words to the contrary
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samo🦕
Diamond Member
not really a movie person
looking at the big sky
Joined: December 2017
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Post by samo🦕 on Nov 10, 2019 18:01:16 GMT -5
ok so one weird chart thing that happened but never was or is discussed is how the f**k did White Walls somehow break the 20-50 rule to stay on at #51 for a 22nd week in 2014? I know this has already been answered, but did it have a positive bullet at radio? I seem to remember that being how IDGAF and I Could Use A Love Song were both able to stay past 20 weeks last year, but I have very little idea of how exceptions to the recurrency rules actually work, so feel free to correct me. |
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CF15
9x Platinum Member
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 9,356
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Post by CF15 on Nov 10, 2019 18:29:19 GMT -5
What does Rihanna need to keep her streak alive A surprise release featuring Adele, Drake, Maroon 5, Travis Scott and the up and coming TikTok payola. Didn't this already once happen, and turn out to be a complete flop outside of Hot AC radio? |
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,095
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Post by inverse on Nov 10, 2019 18:48:52 GMT -5
Easy answer to that, you know how sometimes Billboard will reveal a chart position on top 10 reveal day only for it to flip with an adjacent song (this happened to a couple of songs this week)? Well, in that case, they didn't notice that swapping 50 and 51 would make the new #51 not jive with recurrency. The same thing also happened to I Love It on the August 31, 2013 chart. An even weirder example is from the Canadian hot 100 which does have the same recurrent rules as the US one when Price Tag by Jessie J wound up all the way down at 59 and stayed on. It fell off the next week.
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golfradio
Charting
Joined: December 2018
Posts: 122
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Post by golfradio on Nov 10, 2019 19:37:01 GMT -5
If Hot makes it, will just the original be counted because that's how it accumulated most of it's points? That's kinda crazy considering that the remix is the reason it will make it in the first place.
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Post by nathanalbright on Nov 10, 2019 23:33:22 GMT -5
If Hot makes it, will just the original be counted because that's how it accumulated most of it's points? That's kinda crazy considering that the remix is the reason it will make it in the first place. Well, given the example of "Con Calma" and "Old Town Road" from this year, if the remix artist is credited on the Billboard charts during the song's run, even after the run has begun, it will likely be credited for any year end listing as well. |
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Post by nathanalbright on Nov 10, 2019 23:39:54 GMT -5
Easy answer to that, you know how sometimes Billboard will reveal a chart position on top 10 reveal day only for it to flip with an adjacent song (this happened to a couple of songs this week)? Well, in that case, they didn't notice that swapping 50 and 51 would make the new #51 not jive with recurrency. The same thing also happened to I Love It on the August 31, 2013 chart. An even weirder example is from the Canadian hot 100 which does have the same recurrent rules as the US one when Price Tag by Jessie J wound up all the way down at 59 and stayed on. It fell off the next week.
On that same chart there was another example of Fire by Raghav that fell from 54 to 55 in its 21st week. |
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hydraflare
Gold Member
RIP Juice WRLD
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Post by hydraflare on Nov 11, 2019 8:09:13 GMT -5
An even weirder example is from the Canadian hot 100 which does have the same recurrent rules as the US one when Price Tag by Jessie J wound up all the way down at 59 and stayed on. It fell off the next week.
On that same chart there was another example of Fire by Raghav that fell from 54 to 55 in its 21st week. 1. it went up to 54 from 55 2. even if it did fall, that's a 1 point difference, so it still could've gained that week |
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n13l5
Charting
I like to follow the billboard chart predictions on here
Joined: November 2017
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Post by n13l5 on Nov 11, 2019 8:27:53 GMT -5
meanwhile I'm that one guy who thinks Slide is just decent I always preferred Feels over Slide even though everyone else seems to disagree I agree, Slide isnt bad but I always get annoyed by that little voice shouting ''I might'', it totally gets me out of the song Feels sounds cheeper but it sounds at least consistent and imo more fun
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imbondz
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Joined: January 2006
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Post by imbondz on Nov 11, 2019 9:21:08 GMT -5
I never understand the year end list. How can a song like Dancing with a Stranger end up higher than Senorita?
Makes no sense.
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Post by Foxable on Nov 11, 2019 9:38:21 GMT -5
I never understand the year end list. How can a song like Dancing with a Stranger end up higher than Senorita? Makes no sense. Senorita came pretty late into the year so it hasn't had as much time to climb as DWAS which has been on the chart almost all year. |
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Nov 11, 2019 9:58:09 GMT -5
I never understand the year end list. How can a song like Dancing with a Stranger end up higher than Senorita? Makes no sense. The chart moves a lot slower these days compared to the beginning of the decade. I’m currently working on the 2010 year end, and there are a bunch of songs that rank pretty highly despite coming out in the fall. But these days, you almost always have to have a long chart run to even make the list, let alone rank highly. The earlier in the year a song comes out, the better for its year end position. And DWAS came out about 6 months before Señorita, and is still charting. |
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Nov 11, 2019 14:41:34 GMT -5
I understand I guess. But, DWAS was not a bigger hit than Seniorita and we’re still in 2019, it’s not like either song was split between years. Each songs points are in 2019. So Billboard is saying DWAS was a bigger hit song. But it clearly wasn’t.
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lights
Charting
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Post by lights on Nov 11, 2019 14:42:36 GMT -5
I understand I guess. But, DWAS was not a bigger hit than Seniorita and we’re still in 2019, it’s not like either song was split between years. Each songs points are in 2019. So Billboard is saying DWAS was a bigger hit song. But it clearly wasn’t. Except señorita will be split between years and so will have overall had the bigger run. Just not in the 2019 chart year. |
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Post by nathanalbright on Nov 11, 2019 14:43:36 GMT -5
I understand I guess. But, DWAS was not a bigger hit than Seniorita and we’re still in 2019, it’s not like either song was split between years. Each songs points are in 2019. So Billboard is saying DWAS was a bigger hit song. But it clearly wasn’t. A song being a hit for a much longer time does make it a bigger hit, at least to date. When the chart runs for both songs are over, then we will be able to see which was the bigger hit overall. |
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moonlite
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Post by moonlite on Nov 11, 2019 14:48:46 GMT -5
I understand I guess. But, DWAS was not a bigger hit than Seniorita and we’re still in 2019, it’s not like either song was split between years. Each songs points are in 2019. So Billboard is saying DWAS was a bigger hit song. But it clearly wasn’t. I personally don’t look at the year/decade end lists as what songs were bigger but which had better chart runs. Cause its clear in a lot of instances that it poorly displays what songs were bigger. Especially in cases where songs like DWAS are being mindlessly played by radio programmers in the background for months on end and are doing nearly nothing sales/streaming wise. But thats just me |
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Nov 11, 2019 15:43:54 GMT -5
I understand I guess. But, DWAS was not a bigger hit than Seniorita and we’re still in 2019, it’s not like either song was split between years. Each songs points are in 2019. So Billboard is saying DWAS was a bigger hit song. But it clearly wasn’t. Let’s see how many points Señorita scores in 2020. Remember that songs like Royals and Shake it Off each only placed in the teens of their respective year end lists, despite spending multiple weeks at #1. They would have placed in the top 5 of each year if their runs were condensed into a single year. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2019 20:32:09 GMT -5
Is it safe to say that unless something drastic happens like a surprise remix, HIGHEST IN THE ROOM will not make the 2019 year end list?
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Nov 11, 2019 21:46:55 GMT -5
I understand I guess. But, DWAS was not a bigger hit than Seniorita and we’re still in 2019, it’s not like either song was split between years. Each songs points are in 2019. So Billboard is saying DWAS was a bigger hit song. But it clearly wasn’t. Happens all the time. It's the direct result of artificially setting fixed start & end dates. It's like having a marathon race where runners can start any time between noon and three, but the winner is declared at 4, even though there are still runners on the course. Check my 2019 "complete" chart in a few months and you'll see Senorita overtake DWAS almost certainly. |
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Post by Lukas on Nov 11, 2019 23:21:19 GMT -5
Is it safe to say that unless something drastic happens like a surprise remix, HIGHEST IN THE ROOM will not make the 2019 year end list? I would say yes, it won't make it. |
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GPMB
Gold Member
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Posts: 618
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Post by GPMB on Nov 12, 2019 0:13:26 GMT -5
wait holy s**t what if Sunflower breaks the 52 week rule and makes 2020 YE AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA |
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Nov 12, 2019 1:05:05 GMT -5
Curious if any WHSOTY list videos will not have SYL as their number one.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2019 1:13:43 GMT -5
Curious if any WHSOTY list videos will not have SYL as their number one. While a few people might put it at #1, the chances of everyone doing so is very low. Some people might not even put it on their list entirely. |
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Nov 12, 2019 1:46:23 GMT -5
Curious if any WHSOTY list videos will not have SYL as their number one. Knockin Boots exists so unfortunately it's blocked at #2. Wish it could've been the same on the hot 100 |
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