Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[lights]

[dremolus - solarpunk]

We're ending the decade by giving Chris Brown his biggest hit song to date 

[imbondz]

Nov 11, 2019 21:46:55 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Nov 11, 2019 14:41:34 GMT -5 imbondz said:

I understand I guess. But, DWAS was not a bigger hit than Seniorita and we’re still in 2019, it’s not like either song was split between years. Each songs points are in 2019. So Billboard is saying DWAS was a bigger hit song. But it clearly wasn’t.

Happens all the time. It's the direct result of artificially setting fixed start & end dates.

It's like having a marathon race where runners can start any time between noon and three, but the winner is declared at 4, even though there are still runners on the course. 

Check my 2019 "complete" chart in a few months and you'll see Senorita overtake DWAS almost certainly. 

Haha. That’s a great analogy!!

[tuna]

Take a look at the bottom of the charts right now, because I think we're going to get a lot of top 20 upsets soon that'll become 2020 hits

Nice To Meet Ya is continually growing, SLOW DANCING IN THE DARK is doing alarmingly well, Hot Shower is growing, Hot Girl Bummer is rebounding, and Roxanne and Dance Monkey are already here

[iggyamo]

Nov 12, 2019 11:00:22 GMT -5 tuna said:

Take a look at the bottom of the charts right now, because I think we're going to get a lot of top 20 upsets soon that'll become 2020 hits

Nice To Meet Ya is continually growing, SLOW DANCING IN THE DARK is doing alarmingly well, Hot Shower is growing, Hot Girl Bummer is rebounding, and Roxanne and Dance Monkey are already here

It is starting to seem like we may have some real movement in the top 10 for once. Just hoping they rise fast enough to make sure the hot 100 isn’t just Christmas songs, which considering how weak the charts are could be a real concern

[spicymapping]

And it’s finally time…. Bring in the scenarios!

For the unaware, we have no idea how many weeks are actually left in the chart year - so much so that there are 5 different combinations of weeks that are plausible -

Scenario 1 - November 24th, 2018 - November 16th, 2019 (52 Weeks)
Scenario 2 - December 1st, 2018 - November 23rd, 2019 (52 Weeks)
Scenario 3 - November 24th, 2018 - November 23rd, 2019 (53 Weeks)
Scenario 4 - December 1st, 2018 - November 30th, 2019 (53 Weeks)
Scenario 5 - November 24th, 2018 - November 30th, 2019 (54 Weeks)

All of these are possible (though I seriously doubt scenario 2), so I’m going to be posting a full 150 for all 5 scenarios.

A few notes on my formula - It’s purely “One Place, One Value”. The system isn’t close to an inverse point system or anything but a week at #1 is equal to any other week at #1. I do this to limit input (because if I didn’t, it’d be a pretty slippery slope down to simon’s year end formula for last year and…. Yeah, no.) This means that the top of the list is just wrong - We all know that Old Town Road will be #1. It’s just unfortunate my formula doesn’t. However, it actually might be the most accurate formula later down for reasons I will not disclose so I do not become obsolete - It got Believer & Mi Gente right last year.

Finally, If there’s any song not on here you’re interested in where it lands, feel free to ask - I’ll be happy to tell you.

With the formalities out of the way, I present to you….

SPICY’S OFFICIAL 2019 HOT 100 YEAR END PREDICTIONS - SCENARIO 1 (NOVEMBER 24TH, 2018 - NOVEMBER 16TH, 2019):

1. Post Malone & Swae Lee - Sunflower
2. Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus - Old Town Road
3. Halsey - Without Me
4. Billie Eilish - Bad Guy
5. Post Malone - Wow
6. Ariana Grande - 7 Rings
7. Marshmello & Bastille - Happier
8. Jonas Brothers - Sucker
9. Lizzo - Truth Hurts
10. Khalid - Talk
11. Travis Scott - SICKO MODE
12. Ariana Grande - thank u, next
13. Panic! At The Disco - High Hopes
14. Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Senorita
15. Sam Smith & Normani - Dancing With a Stranger
16. Ed Sheerhan & Justin Beiber - I Don't Care
17. Benny Blanco, Halsey & Khalid - Eastside
18. Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper - Shallow
19. Meek Mill ft. Drake - Going Bad
20. Chris Brown ft. Drake - No Guidance
21. Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved
22. Khalid - Better
23. DaBaby - Suge
24. Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B - Girls Like You
25. Ava Max - Sweet But Psycho
26. J. Cole - MIDDLE CHILD
27. Lil Tecca - Ran$om
28. Lil Baby & Gunna - Drip Too Hard
29. Shawn Mendes - If I Can't Have You
30. Post Malone ft. Young Thug - Goodbyes
31. Cardi B & Bruno Mars - Please Me
32. Kodak Black ft. Travis Scott & Offset - ZEZE
33. Drake ft. Rick Ross - Money In The Grave
34. Post Malone - Better Now
35. Taylor Swift - You Need To Calm Down
36. Lil Nas X - Panini
37. 5 Seconds of Summer - Youngblood
38. Dan + Shay - Speechless
39. Ariana Grande - break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored
40. Cardi B - Money
41. Polo G ft. Lil Tjay - Pop Out
42. 21 Savage - A Lot
43. Bad Bunny ft. Drake - MIA
44. A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie - Look Back At It
45. Ed Sheerhan ft. Khalid - Beautiful People
46. Taylor Swift ft. Brendan Urie of Panic! At The Disco - ME!
47. Blueface - Thotiana
48. Luke Combs - Beautiful Crazy
49. Blake Shelton - God's Country
50. Juice WRLD - Lucid Dreams
51. Morgan Wallen - Whiskey Glasses
52. Post Malone - Circles
53. Sheck Wes - Mo Bamba
54. Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black - Wake Up In The Sky
55. Dean Lewis - Be Alright
56. Mustard ft. Migos - Pure Water
57. Blanco Brown - The Git Up
58. Diplo & Ellie Goulding ft. Swae Lee - Close To Me
59. Panic! At The Disco - Hey Look Ma, I Made It
60. DJ Snake ft. Ozuna, Cardi B & Selena Gomez - Taki Taki
61. Young Thug ft. J. Cole & Travis Scott - The London
62. Luke Combs - Beer Never Broke My Heart
63. Lauren Daigle - You Say
64. Calboy - Envy Me
65. Daddy Yankee & Katy Perry ft. Snow - Con Calma
66. Billie Eilish - When the Party's Over
67. SHAED - Trampoline
68. YNW Melly - Murder on My Mind
69. City Girls - Act Up
70. Cardi B ft. Bad Bunny & J Balvin - I Like It
71. Fillip Dinero - Leave Me Alone
72. Ariana Grande - Breathin
73. Jonas Brothers - Only Human
74. Saweetie - My Type
75. Lil Baby & Gunna - Close Friends
76. Billie Eilish - Bury a Friend
77. Pinkfong - Baby Shark
78. DaBaby & Lil Baby - Baby
79. Luke Bryan - Knockin' Boots
80. Sam Smith - How Do You Sleep?
81. YK Osiris - Worth It
82. Ella Mai - Trip
83. A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie ft. 6ix9ine - Swervin
84. Lee Brice - Rumor
85. Dan + Shay - Tequila
86. Megan Thee Stallion ft. Nicki Minaj & Ty Dolla $ign - Hot Girl Summer
87. Marshmello & Kane Brown - One Thing Right
88. Megan Thee Stallion ft. DaBaby - Cash s**t
89. Look What God Gave Her
90. Offset ft. Cardi B - Clout
91. Kane Brown - Good as You
92. Khalid ft. Normani - Love Lies
93. NLE Choppa - Shotta Flow
94. Florida Georgia Line - Talk You Out of It

TOP OF THE BUBBLE - 1500

95. Ariana Grande & Social House - Boyfriend
96. Lizzo - Good As Hell
97. Dan + Shay - All To Myself
98. Chase Rice - Eyes on You
99. Juice WRLD - Robbery
100. Bazzi ft. Camila Cabello - Beautiful

PROJECTED CUTOFF - 1400

101. Katy Perry - Never Really Over
102. Wale ft. Jeremih - On Chill
103. Maren Morris - GIRL
104. P!NK - Walk Me Home
105. YG ft. Tyga & Jon Z - Go Loko
106. Brett Young - Here Tonight
107. Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You
108. Sech ft. Darell - Otro Trago
109. Scotty McCreery - This is It
110. Young Thug ft. Gunna - Hot
111. Tyler, The Creator - EARFQUAKE

BOTTOM OF THE BUBBLE - 1300

112. Bad Bunny & Tainy - Callaita
113. Kelsea Ballerini - Miss Me More
114. Taylor Swift - Lover
115. Travis Scott - Highest In The Room
116. Summer Walker ft. Drake - Girls Need Love
117. Yo Gotti ft. Lil Baby - Put a Date On It
118. Mustard ft. Roddy Ricch - Ballin'
119. Imagine Dragons - Natural
120. Marshmello ft. CHVRCHES - Here With Me
121. Chris Lane - I Don't Know About You
122. Jason Aldean - Rearview Town
123. YNW Melly ft. Kanye West - Mixed Personalities
124. Jason Aldean - Girl Like You
125. Pardison Fontaine ft. Cardi B - Backin’ It Up
126. Jonas Brothers - Cool
127. Cardi B - Press
128. Juice WRLD - Armed And Dangerous
129. Lil Wayne - Uproar
130. Old Dominion - Make it Sweet
131. Maroon 5 - Memories
132. NF - Time
133. Anuel AA, Daddy Yankee & Karol G ft. Ozuna & J Balvin - China
134. Anuel AA ft. Romeo Santos - Ella Quiere Beber
135. The Chainsmokers & 5 Seconds of Summer - Who Do You Love
136. Pedro Capo & Farruko - Calma
137. Y2K & bbno$ - Lalala
138. Lil Uzi Vert - Sanguine Paradise
139. Kodak Black - Calling My Spirit
140. The Chainsmokers ft. Kelsea Ballerini - This Feeling
141. 5 Seconds of Summer - Easier
142. Eli Young Band - Love Ain’t
143. Meek Mill ft. Ella Mai - 24/7
144. Billie Eilish - Ocean Eyes
145. Dan + Shay & Justin Beiber - 10,000 Hours
146. Justin Moore - The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home
147. Chris Stapleton - Millionaire
148. City Girls ft. Cardi B - Twerk
149. Matt Stell - Prayed For You
150. Thomas Rhett - Sixteen

[Deleted]

Here is my updated tracking for this week on current charting songs that might potentially make the 2019 year end list in the future:

Songs That Will Lock Next Week:

-Hot Girl Summer

-Good As Hell

The total number of songs that are locked or will be locked in the future are 90. Here are the other songs still charting that I tracked:

?) Circles 2691 (+285)
?) Trampoline 2555 (+178)
?) Knockin' Boots 2263
?) Only Human 2250 (+157)
?) Baby 2119 (+129)
?) How Do You Sleep? 2109 (+136)
?) One Thing Right 2070 (+120)
84) Cash s**t 2029 (+69)
85) Rumor 2012
86) Clout 1991
87) Good As You 1968
88) Look What God Gave Her 1965

- - - - - LOCKED (1900 Points) - - - - -

89) Shotta Flow 1877
90) Hot Girl Summer 1850 (+114)
91) All To Myself 1842
92) This Is It 1809
93) Eyes On You 1803
94) Trip 1788
95) Talk You Out Of It 1772
96) Tequila 1742
97) Walk Me Home 1733

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

98) Go Loko 1710

99) GIRL 1709
100) Boyfriend 1690
101) Callaita 1685
102) Good As Hell 1682 (+214)
103) Robbery 1677
104) Otro Trago 1671
105) Here Tonight 1664
106) Love Lies 1653
107) I Don't Know About You 1646 (+73)
108) On Chill 1620 (+146)
109) Hot 1596 (+199)
110) Beautiful 1590
111) Lover 1590 (+115)
112) Time 1551 (+118)
113) Ballin’ 1546 (+136)
114) China 1546 (+59)
115) Highest In The Room 1218 (+180)

Dropouts:
-Lalala 1446 (Will miss the 2019 year end list.)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here are the projected calculated points for every song I tracked if they stayed in their same positions for the rest of the charting year:

?) Circles 2976
?) Trampoline 2733
?) Only Human 2407
?) Baby 2248
?) How Do You Sleep? 2245
?) One Thing Right 2190
84) Cash s**t 2029
85) Rumor 2012
86) Clout 1991
87) Good As You 1968
88) Look What God Gave Her 1965
89) Hot Girl Summer 1964
90) Good As Hell 1896
91) Shotta Flow 1877
92) All To Myself 1842
93) This Is It 1809
94) Eyes On You 1803
95) Hot 1795
96) Trip 1788
97) Talk You Out Of It 1772
98) On Chill 1766
99) Tequila 1742
100) Walk Me Home 1733

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
101) I Don’t Know About You 1719
102) Go Loko 1710
103) GIRL 1709
104) Lover 1705
105) Boyfriend 1690
106) Callaita 1685
107) Ballin’ 1682
108) Robbery 1677
109) Otro Trago 1671
110) Time 1669
111) Here Tonight 1664
112) Love Lies 1653
?) China 1605
?) Beautiful 1590
?) Highest In The Room 1398

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here's also my opinion on each song's chances of making the 2019 year end list (only the ones that I tracked and are still charting):

Certain:
Hot Girl Summer

Good As Hell

Toss Up:
Hot

On Chill
Ballin'

No Chance:
I Don't Know About You

Lover
Time

China

Highest In The Room

[Deleted]

For quite a while now I have known that my scores for many songs are inflated due to how weak the charts are right now and the formula I use being mostly fixed. Because of this I will not do the calculations for the week of November 30th, 2019 since whatever final calculations I get for next week will probably more accurately reflect the 2019 year end list with that extra week added on (minus HIGHEST IN THE ROOM, which would be way too low in my predictions if I just called whatever I calculate next week as the final score with the week of November 30th, 2019).

[nathanalbright]

Nov 12, 2019 0:13:26 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Sept 24, 2019 19:54:14 GMT -5 GPMB said:

wait holy s**t what if Sunflower breaks the 52 week rule and makes 2020 YE

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

And on today's edition of "Pulse Cold Takes..."

[lights]

Scenario 2 is by far more likely than scenario 1. Scenario 1 is madness.

[nathanalbright]

Nov 12, 2019 14:43:57 GMT -5 lights said:

Scenario 2 is by far more likely than scenario 1. Scenario 1 is madness.

I agree, and I also think scenario 5 is madness.  We had a 52 week last year, and I see it as very unlikely that we would end up with a 54 week year this year.

[inverse]

Week 51 (or 52, it remains to be seen) Either way there's one more week left.

1	Lil Nas X f/ Billy Ray Cyrus	Old Town Road	1592850
2	Post Malone & Swae Lee	Sunflower	1192800
3	Halsey	Without Me	1089650
4	Billie Eilish	Bad Guy	916550
5	Post Malone	Wow	873880
6	Marshmello & Bastille	Happier	824400
7	Khalid	Talk	801900
8	Ariana Grande	7 Rings	793820
9	Jonas Brothers	Sucker	777200
10	Travis Scott	Sicko Mode	744700
11	Panic! At The Disco	High Hopes	734750
12	Lizzo	Truth Hurts	718900
13	Sam Smith & Normani	Dancing With A Stranger	696030
14	Ariana Grande	thank u, next	663250
15	Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello	Senorita	640600
16	Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber	I Don't Care	626700
17	Benny Blanco f/ Halsey, Khalid	Eastside	590400
18	Meek Mill f/ Drake	Going Bad	577760
19	Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper	Shallow	568200
20	Khalid	Better	536600
21	Chris Brown f/ Drake	No Guidance	533070
22	DaBaby	Suge	514450
23	Ava Max	Sweet But Psycho	511800
24	Maroon 5 f/ Cardi B	Girls Like You	490500
25	J. Cole	Middle Child	489200
26	Lewis Capaldi	Someone You Loved	482400
27	Lil Tecca	Ran$om	457350
28	Lil Baby & Gunna	Drip Too Hard	448130
29	Shawn Mendes	If I Can't Have You	406280
30	Post Malone f/ Young Thug	Goodbyes	392350
31	Drake f/ Rick Ross	Money In The Grave	368250
32	Cardi B f/ Bruno Mars	Please Me	360350
33	Ariana Grande	break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored	360220
34	Dan + Shay	Speechless	357500
35	Taylor Swift	You Need To Calm Down	353350
36	Lil Nas X	Panini	350380
37	Post Malone	Better Now	346450
38	5 Seconds Of Summer	Youngblood	341950
39	Kodak Black f/ Travis Scott, Offset	ZEZE	340520
40	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie	Look Back At It	338450
41	Taylor Swift f/ Brendon Urie	ME!	335700
42	Polo G f/ Lil Tjay	Pop Out	334100
43	Cardi B	Money	331850
44	21 Savage	A Lot	328150
45	Luke Combs	Beautiful Crazy	318800
46	Blueface	Thotiana	306400
47	Morgan Wallen	Whiskey Glasses	306100
48	Bad Bunny f/ Drake	MIA	302400
49	Blake Shelton	God's Country	300400
50	Ed Sheeran f/ Khalid	Beautiful People	298800
51	Mustard f/ Migos	Pure Water	292430
52	Dean Lewis	Be Alright	284500
53	Blanco Brown	The Git Up	282230
54	Calboy	Envy Me	280100
55	Ellie Goulding X Diplo f/ Swae Lee	Close To Me	274600
56	Panic! At The Disco	Hey Look Ma, I Made It	274300
57	Post Malone	Circles	269100
58	Juice WRLD	Lucid Dreams	268580
59	Luke Combs	Beer Never Broke My Heart	266550
60	Lauren Daigle	You Say	264400
61	Daddy Yankee f/ Snow	Con Calma	263850
62	Gucci Mane f/ Bruno Mars, Kodak Black	Wake Up In The Sky	263270
63	Sheck Wes	Mo Bamba	263000
64	Young Thug, J. Cole, Travis Scott	The London	262850
65	YNW Melly	Murder On My Mind	254350
66	SHAED	Trampoline	249400
67	DJ Snake f/ Ozuna, Cardi B, Selena Gomez	Taki Taki	248350
68	City Girls	Act Up	246500
69	Billie Eilish	When The Party's Over	246030
70	Billie Eilish	Bury A Friend	226400
71	YK Osiris	Worth It	221300
72	Jonas Brothers	Only Human	219530
73	Saweetie	My Type	218040
74	Luke Bryan	Knockin' Boots	217350
75	Lil Baby	Close Friends	215000
76	Cardi B f/ Bad Bunny, J Balvin	I Like It	212750
77	Pinkfong	Baby Shark	211950
78	Flipp Dinero	Leave Me Alone	209830
79	Lee Brice	Rumor	200900
80	Lil Baby & DaBaby	Baby	199530
81	Sam Smith	How Do You Sleep?	199300
82	Ariana Grande	Breathin	196100
83	Thomas Rhett	Look What God Gave Her	193030
84	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie f/ 6ix9ine	Swervin	191400
85	Marshmello & Kane Brown	One Thing Right	191200
86	Offset f/ Cardi B	Clout	190450
87	Kane Brown	Good As You	189550
88	Megan Thee Stallion f/ DaBaby	Cash $hit	189150
89	Florida Georgia Line	Talk You Out Of It	187150
90	NLE Choppa	Shotta Flow	181800
91	Dan + Shay	All To Myself	174150
92	Megan Thee Stallion f/ Nicki Minaj, Ty Dolla $ign	Hot Girl Summer	174080
93	Chase Rice	Eyes On You	173000
94	P!nk	Walk Me Home	172950
95	Maren Morris	Girl	171280
96	Juice WRLD	Robbery	168900
97	Ella Mai	Trip	164120
98	Ariana Grande & Social House	Boyfriend	163900
99	YG, Tyga & Jon Z	Go Loko	162100
100	Kelsea Ballerini	Miss Me More	160070

101	Dan + Shay	Tequila	159850
102	Lizzo	Good As Hell	159550
103	Bad Bunny & Tainy	Callaita	157250
104	Summer Walker f/ Drake	Girls Need Love	156320
105	Brett Young	Here Tonight	156280
106	Sech f/ Darell	Otro Trago	155500
107	Scotty McCreery	This Is It	153950
108	Katy Perry	Never Really Over	153520
109	Wale f/ Jeremih	On Chill	152760
110	Yo Gotti f/ Lil Baby	Put A Date On It	152450
113	Young Thug f/ Gunna	Hot	151350

 - The fight for the top 10 is really coming down to the wire. It actually looks like Sicko Mode will be able to barely stave off Truth Hurts next week.
 - Billie Eilish's songs are together again for the last time. Even if the year were to continue forever My Type would probably drop out in between them.
 - Good As Hell, On Chill, and Hot should all enter next week making the #100 song Trip using the 52 week chart span.

Under the ridiculous scenario that this is the last week in the 2019 chart year the order of the top 10 doesn't change at all. There's a lot of songs with changes in point values so I'm just gonna go over the low ones that matter to the cutoff. Trip would have 179520, Tequila 170420, and Love Lies 165050. This would make the bottom 10

91 Trip
92 All To Myself
93 Hot Girl Summer
94 Eyes On You
95 Walk Me Home
96 Girl
97 Tequila
98 Robbery
99 Love Lies
100 Boyfriend

Also most importantly When The Party's Over would pick up some more points separating Billie Eilish's songs once again :(

[nathanalbright]

It seems as if those two Billie Eilish songs are destined to be just barely apart.

[GPMB]

Nov 12, 2019 12:57:44 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

And it’s finally time…. Bring in the scenarios!

For the unaware, we have no idea how many weeks are actually left in the chart year - so much so that there are 5 different combinations of weeks that are plausible -

Scenario 1 - November 24th, 2018 - November 16th, 2019 (52 Weeks)
Scenario 2 - December 1st, 2018 - November 23rd, 2019 (52 Weeks)
Scenario 3 - November 24th, 2018 - November 23rd, 2019 (53 Weeks)
Scenario 4 - December 1st, 2018 - November 30th, 2019 (53 Weeks)
Scenario 5 - November 24th, 2018 - November 30th, 2019 (54 Weeks)

All of these are possible (though I seriously doubt scenario 2)

imo only 3, 4, and SLIGHTLY possibly 5 are

[sirskimask]

Really hope SICKO MODE stays in the top 10

[GPMB]

i'm gonna be doing the same thing spicymapping is doing, posting my year end predictions for both scenarios I believe to be possible, but since, as I've mentioned before, it's an inverse point system, it isn't very accurate

to give you a taste of its accuracy, Natural (on the 11/24/2018-11/23/2019 version) is ahead of Talk You Out of It, Sunflower is ahead of Old Town Road, and Shotta Flow is only 9k points ahead of All I Want for Christmas Is You

[Deleted]

Nov 12, 2019 6:32:38 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

We're ending the decade by giving Chris Brown his biggest hit song to date 

Run It!? With You? Forever?

[sirskimask]

Nov 12, 2019 17:47:51 GMT -5 @sape2830 said:

Nov 12, 2019 6:32:38 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

We're ending the decade by giving Chris Brown his biggest hit song to date 

Run It!? With You? Forever?

They had higher peaks but No Guidance may end up with more total points once its run is over (idk how many points the other songs had though)

[Lukas]

Nov 12, 2019 18:06:38 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Nov 12, 2019 17:47:51 GMT -5 @sape2830 said:

Run It!? With You? Forever?

They had higher peaks but No Guidance may end up with more total points once its run is over (idk how many points the other songs had though)

Run It! was in the top 200 of all time on Billboard's 60th anniversary all-time chart. Pretty sure No Guidance won't get anywhere near that.

[rimetm]

NOTE: Don't Start Now's information hadn't been caught by me when I wrote that up, its estimate is 11,506 chart points (14k sales / 10.2m AI / 13.2m streams (10m OD / 2.7m YT / .5m P))

November 16, 2019 - 1/6 Scenarios Complete

Scenario 1 (November 24, 2018 - November 16, 2019 - 52 weeks)






For those who prefer the Without 11/24 version (which includes myself, admittedly), stay tuned for next week, when Scenario 3 will be what you seek!

[Lukas]

Rip Talk. It's the only song in the year end top 10 to not make it on the decade end list.

[lurker2]

Nov 12, 2019 19:09:32 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Rip Talk. It's the only song in the year end top 10 to not make it on the decade end list.

With the increased weighting, I wonder if it could’ve just slipped in.

[Deleted]

If you told me Beautiful had a chance of making the 2019 year end list when it dropped out almost a year ago, I would have called you crazy. But here we are now, projected to be #100 under the 53 week scenario with November 24th, 2018 (using fhas/rimetm's list).

[tanooki]

scenario 3 gang

[mikerivera]

Nov 12, 2019 19:09:32 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Rip Talk. It's the only song in the year end top 10 to not make it on the decade end list.

There’s still a month and half left in the decade. Not to mention, there are plenty of songs in the bottom half of the year end top 10s that won’t make the decade chart. 

[n13l5]

Nov 12, 2019 23:46:19 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Nov 12, 2019 19:09:32 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Rip Talk. It's the only song in the year end top 10 to not make it on the decade end list.

There’s still a month and half left in the decade. Not to mention, there are plenty of songs in the bottom half of the year end top 10s that won’t make the decade chart. 

But the last month doesn't count for this decade anymore, does it?

[yuh yuh]

I'm so torn on which scenario I'd prefer. In some cases I'd like that 2019 would have started with 1st of Dec (which I think will be the case) but that would mean for breathin and thank u next less points and lower placements..🤔

[Lukas]

Nov 12, 2019 23:46:19 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Nov 12, 2019 19:09:32 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Rip Talk. It's the only song in the year end top 10 to not make it on the decade end list.

There’s still a month and half left in the decade. Not to mention, there are plenty of songs in the bottom half of the year end top 10s that won’t make the decade chart. 

1. The decade end list was already revealed. No chance for anything not on the decade-end to make it.

2. I know that there are plenty of such songs, I'm just talking about this year, where there is 1. Half of the years of this decade have zero or one songs in the top 10 that aren't making decade-end. Here's the full compilation (I wanted to see what this list would look like as well):

2010 - None! (0)
2011 - Just Can't Get Enough (1)
2012 - Lights, Glad You Came, Starships, What Makes You Beautiful (4)
2013 - Harlem Shake, Mirrors, Just Give Me A Reason, When I Was Your Man, Cruise (5)
2014 - Talk Dirty, Problem (2)
2015 - Shut Up And Dance, Earned It (2)
2016 - Stressed Out (1)
2017 - Humble, Something Just Like This, Bad And Boujee, Body Like A Back Road, Believer, Congratulations (6)
2018 - The Middle (1)
2019 - Talk (1)

[n13l5]

Nov 13, 2019 9:29:38 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Nov 12, 2019 23:46:19 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

There’s still a month and half left in the decade. Not to mention, there are plenty of songs in the bottom half of the year end top 10s that won’t make the decade chart. 

1. The decade end list was already revealed. No chance for anything not on the decade-end to make it.

2. I know that there are plenty of such songs, I'm just talking about this year, where there is 1. Half of the years of this decade have zero or one songs in the top 10 that aren't making decade-end. Here's the full compilation (I wanted to see what this list would look like as well):

2010 - None! (0)
2011 - Just Can't Get Enough (1)
2012 - Lights, Glad You Came, Starships, What Makes You Beautiful (4)
2013 - Harlem Shake, Mirrors, Just Give Me A Reason, When I Was Your Man, Cruise (5)
2014 - Talk Dirty, Problem (2)
2015 - Shut Up And Dance, Earned It (2)
2016 - Stressed Out (1)
2017 - Humble, Something Just Like This, Bad And Boujee, Body Like A Back Road, Believer, Congratulations (6)
2018 - The Middle (1)
2019 - Talk (1)

Where can the full list be found back?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Damn. If scenario 6 is used, Hot, Good as Hell and On Chill could actually make it onto the year-end list.