Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[dremolus - solarpunk]

BEAUTIFUL MADE IT!!!!!

[Adrian C. 🍓]

I'm pleasantly surprised that Walk Me Home managed to make it!

[dremolus - solarpunk]

This is It and Good as Hell didn't make it but Robbery and boyfriend did 🤔

Well Robbery making it means more material for the worst list!

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Predictions for USPOP 2019:

Ariana Grande - 7 rings
benny blanco - Eastside
Billie Eilish - bad guy
Chris Brown - No Guidance
DaBaby - Suge
Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber - I Don’t Care
Halsey - Without Me
Khalid - Talk
Jonas Brothers - Sucker
Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper - Shallow
Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved
Lil Nas X - Old Town Road
Lil Nas X - Panini
Lil Tecca - Ransom
Lizzo - Good as Hell
Lizzo - Truth Hurts
Panic! at the Disco - High Hopes
Post Malone - Circles
Post Malone - Goodbyes
Post Malone and Swae Lee - Sunflower
Post Malone - Wow.
Sam Smith and Normani - Dancing with a Stranger
Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me
Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello - Señorita
Travis Scott - HIGHEST IN THE ROOM

[inverse]

Good heavens. What was the chart year? I think it might've been that insane scenario where it starts on nov 24 and only goes for 52 weeks that I didn't even bother to post a full 100 for lol

Also lol @ Pink's leadoff single beating Katy Perry's on the 2019 year end list

[lights]

I'll wait for confirmation about which weeks were used until posting my results, but pretty happy with them.

Only real problem was with the points for the last couple of weeks and the first couple of weeks.

[whales10268]

Dec 5, 2019 12:08:55 GMT -5 inverse said:

Good heavens. What was the chart year? I think it might've been that insane scenario where it starts on nov 24 and only goes for 52 weeks that I didn't even bother to post a full 100 for lol

Also lol @ Pink's leadoff single beating Katy Perry's on the 2019 year end list

She had an extra month.

[born]

This is the most idiotic thing I’ve ever seen. Billboard keeps getting messier.

[Deleted]

I'm glad Beautiful was able to make the 2019 year end list, even if I think the song is only okay. It definitely made up for This Is It and Good As Hell missing the cut (although the latter will probably make next year's list anyways).

[lights]

Playlist link:

[Deleted]

Oct 24, 2019 18:14:09 GMT -5 hydraflare said:

If Beautiful makes the year-end I'll be so mad. It would mean my 2018 barely missed rankdown was wrong

When making that rankdown, I removed songs that were either on the 2017 list or were going to make the 2019 year-end.

Well, this is really awkward now. At least I'm looking forward to ranking "This Is It" on your 2019 barely missed ranking though, especially since I know you adored that song and even added it to your best hit songs list of 2019. (Hydra is my friend so I'm just messing with him as a joke.)

[tallen2001]

Well at least with Robbery making it I'll have an easy #100 fir the YE rankdown. I wish On Chill made it but at least i expect Hot, Ballin, and Good As Hell to make next years anyway. Also I'm happy for everyone that wanted Beautiful to make it.

[spicymapping]

So I'm guessing we're on scenario 1 or 3.

also, it's official. the boyfriend & robbery slander is no more

[inverse]

Very high level of accuracy this year. (This is the closest guess by lights)

1 - Old Town Road (=)
2 - Sunflower (=)
3 - Without Me (=)
4 - Bad Guy (=)
5 - Wow (+1)
6 - Happier (-1)
7 - 7 Rings (+2)
8 - Talk (-1)
9 - Sicko Mode (-1)
10 - Sucker (=)
11 - High Hopes (=)
12 - thank u, next (=)
13 - Truth Hurts (=)
14 - Dancing With A Stranger (=)
15 - Senorita (=)
16 - I Don't Care (=)
17 - Eastside (=)
18 - Going Bad (+1)
19 - Shallow (-1)
20 - Better (=)
21 - No Guidance (=)
22 - Girls Like You (=)
23 - Sweet But Psycho (=)
24 - Suge (=)
25 - Middle Child (+1)
26 - Drip Too Hard (+1)
27 - Someone You Loved (-2)
28 - Ran$om (=)
29 - If I Can't Have You (=)
30 - Goodbyes (=)
31 - ZEZE (+3)
32 - Better Now (-1)
33 - Youngblood (-1)
34 - Money In The Grave (+1)
35 - Speechless (-2)
36 - break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored (=)
37 - Please Me (=)
38 - Money (=)
39 - You Need To Calm Down (=)
40 - Panini (=)
41 - Look Back At It (=)
42 - A Lot (+3)
43 - ME! (=)
44 - MIA  (=)
45 - Pop Out (-3)
46 - Beautiful Crazy (=)
47 - Thotiana (+1)
48 - Lucid Dreams (-1)
49 - Mo Bamba (+1)
50 - Beautiful People (+1)
51 - Wake Up In The Sky (+2)
52 - Whiskey Glasses (-3)
53 - God's Country (-1)
54 - Be Alright (=)
55 - Pure Water (=)
56 - The Git Up (=)
57 - Taki Taki (+1)
58 - Close To Me (+1)
59 - Envy Me (-2)
60 - You Say (=)
61 - Hey Look Ma, I Made It (=)
62 - Circles (=)
63 - Beer Never Broke My Heart (=)
64 - The London (=)
65 - Con Calma (=)
66 - Murder On My Mind (+1)
67 - When The Party's Over (-1)
68 - Act Up (+1)
69 - I Like It (+1)
70 - Trampoline (-2)
71 - Leave Me Alone (+1)
72 - Breathin (+1)
73 - Bury A Friend (+2)
74 - Close Friends (-3)
75 - Baby Shark (+4)
76 - My Type (=)
77 - Worth It (=)
78 - Only Human (-4)
79 - Knockin' Boots (-1)
80 - Trip (+3)
81 - Rumor (-1)
82 - Swervin (+6)
83 - How Do You Sleep? (-1)
84 - Baby (-3)
85 - Look What God Gave Her (+1)
86 - Good As You (+3)
87 - Clout (=)
88 - Love Lies (+4)
89 - One Thing Right (-5)
90 - Cash $hit (-5)
91 - Tequila (+5)
92 - Shotta Flow (-1)
93 - Hot Girl Summer (=)
94 - Talk You Out Of It (-4)
95 - Beautiful (+5)
96 - Eyes On You (-1)
97 - All To Myself (-3)
98 - Boyfriend (+3)
99 - Walk Me Home (-2)
100 - Robbery (-2)

Total amount of missed spots is 120 which is very low, congrats to lights for nailing this! (AND BEING THE FIRST PERSON TO PUT SONG #99 IN THE TOP 100! THE CURSE IS OVER!)

[lifeofaguardian]

From what I can tell, the charts used 24/11/2018-23/11/2019 - Rimetm's scenario for that time period is 98% correct about the songs making the list (only missing Robbery and Boyfriend, instead predicting Good As Hell and This Is It).

[inverse]

Accuracy per year:

Daniel Collins (2014)
Correct Spot: 40
Top 10: 10/10
Top 100: 96/100
Total Spots Off: 166
Worst Miss: Drink A Beer - 19? (Predicted to be 84 and then missed, impossible to know for sure where it would rank in a top 110 but considering that the songs he MISSED that made it were all predicted 101 to 105 then averaging its estimated finish at 103 seems kinda fair? This is a confusing one)

broccoli (2015)
Correct Spot: 19
Top 10: 9/10
Top 100: 98/100
Total Spots Off: 298
Worst Miss: Habits (Stay High) - 12 (Predicted at 65, finished at 77)

georgetherunner314 (2016)
Correct Spot: 48
Top 10: 10/10
Top 100: 99/100
Total Spots Off: 79
Worst Miss: Let Me Love You (Predicted at 42, finished at 47. This was because songs 42-46 were all within 4000 points of each other), Starving (Predicted at 89, finished at 94). Both were off by just 5

Snoopdawg (2017)
Correct Spot: 20
Top 10: 10/10
Top 100: 98/100
Total Spots Off: 261
Worst Miss: Treat You Better - 16 (Predicted at 76, finished at 92, for some weird reason)
Bonus points for being the only person to get #100 right

fhas (2018)
Correct Spot: 48
Top 10: 10/10
Top 100: 97/100
Total Spots Off: 143
Worst Miss: Say Something - 9 (Predicted at 94, finished at 85.)

lights (2019)
Correct Spot: 42
Top 10: 10/10
Top 100: 99/100
Total Spots Off: 120
Worst Miss: Swervin - 6 (Predicted at 88, finished at 82)
Bonus points for breaking the 99 curse!

[spicymapping]

I got 99/100, yay!

[inverse]

When I have more free time I'll make a table of everyone's accuracy who has 11/24 - 11/16 data posted but idk when that'll be becauses it's finals week for me rn lol

[Kris]

SPOILER: Click to show

edit: Surprised how much less rap there was in Canada's hot 100, and Katy Perry and Pink's songs' huge differences (also Lover making it)

SPOILER: Click to show

{Canada hot 100}
1
Old Town Road
Lil Nas X Featuring Billy Ray Cyrus
2
Sunflower (Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse)
Post Malone & Swae Lee
3
Bad Guy
Billie Eilish
4
Without Me
Halsey
5
Happier
Marshmello & Bastille
6
Shallow
Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper
7
7 Rings
Ariana Grande
8
I Don't Care
Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber
9
Wow.
Post Malone
10
Senorita
Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello
11
Thank U, Next
Ariana Grande
12
Sucker
Jonas Brothers
13
Sicko Mode
Travis Scott
14
Dancing With A Stranger
Sam Smith & Normani
15
Girls Like You
Maroon 5 Featuring Cardi B
16
High Hopes
Panic! At The Disco
17
Eastside
benny blanco, Halsey & Khalid
18
Sweet But Psycho
Ava Max
19
Someone You Loved
Lewis Capaldi
20
Ran$om
Lil Tecca
21
If I Can't Have You
Shawn Mendes
22
Talk
Khalid
23
Truth Hurts
Lizzo
24
Going Bad
Meek Mill Featuring Drake
25
Youngblood
5 Seconds Of Summer
26
Money In The Grave
Drake Featuring Rick Ross
27
Con Calma
Daddy Yankee & Katy Perry Featuring Snow
28
You Need To Calm Down
Taylor Swift
29
Beautiful People
Ed Sheeran Featuring Khalid
30
The Git Up
Blanco Brown
31
Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I'm Bored
Ariana Grande
32
Goodbyes
Post Malone Featuring Young Thug
33
Mo Bamba
Sheck Wes
34
Better
Khalid
35
ME!
Taylor Swift Featuring Brendon Urie
36
Middle Child
J. Cole
37
Pop Out
Polo G Featuring Lil Tjay
38
Taki Taki
DJ Snake Featuring Selena Gomez, Ozuna & Cardi B
39
One Thing Right
Marshmello & Kane Brown
40
Panini
Lil Nas X
41
Bury A Friend
Billie Eilish
42
Better Now
Post Malone
43
No Guidance
Chris Brown Featuring Drake
44
Lalala
Y2K & bbno$
45
Close To Me
Ellie Goulding X Diplo Featuring Swae Lee
46
Be Alright
Dean Lewis
47
Walk Me Home
P!nk
48
ZEZE
Kodak Black Featuring Travis Scott & Offset
49
Circles
Post Malone
50
Swervin
A Boogie Wit da Hoodie Featuring 6ix9ine
51
Pure Water
Mustard & Migos
52
Here With Me
Marshmello Featuring CHVRCHES
53
When The Party's Over
Billie Eilish
54
Lucid Dreams
Juice WRLD
55
I'm Not Alright
Loud Luxury And Bryce Vine
56
Thotiana
Blueface
57
Murder On My Mind
YNW Melly
58
The London
Young Thug, J. Cole & Travis Scott
59
Look Back At It
A Boogie Wit da Hoodie
60
Drip Too Hard
Lil Baby & Gunna
61
Nothing Breaks Like A Heart
Mark Ronson Featuring Miley Cyrus
62
Knockin' Boots
Luke Bryan
63
Higher Love
Kygo X Whitney Houston
64
Never Really Over
Katy Perry
65
It's You
Ali Gatie
66
How Do You Sleep?
Sam Smith
67
Only Human
Jonas Brothers
68
Beer Never Broke My Heart
Luke Combs
69
In My Feelings
Drake
70
God's Country
Blake Shelton
71
SOS
Avicii Featuring Aloe Blacc
72
Saturday Nights
Khalid & Kane Brown
73
Love Me
Felix Cartal & LIGHTS
74
Who Do You Love
The Chainsmokers Featuring 5 Seconds Of Summer
75
Suge
DaBaby
76
MIA
Bad Bunny Featuring Drake
77
Boyfriend
Ariana Grande & Social House
78
Breathin
Ariana Grande
79
I Like It
Cardi B, Bad Bunny & J Balvin
80
Don't Call Me Up
Mabel
81
Dance Monkey
Tones And I
82
Beautiful Crazy
Luke Combs
83
Cross Me
Ed Sheeran Featuring Chance The Rapper & PnB Rock
84
A Lot
21 Savage
85
Baby Shark
Pinkfong
86
Robbery
Juice WRLD
87
South Of The Border
Ed Sheeran Featuring Camila Cabello & Cardi B
88
Body
Loud Luxury Featuring Brando
89
Broken
lovelytheband
90
Look What God Gave Her
Thomas Rhett
91
Giant
Calvin Harris & Rag'n'Bone Man
92
Go Loko
YG, Tyga & Jon Z
93
Arms Around You
XXXTENTACION x Lil Pump Featuring Maluma & Swae Lee
94
Summer Days
Martin Garrix Featuring Macklemore & Patrick Stump
95
Shotta Flow
NLE Choppa
96
Lover
Taylor Swift
97
Piece Of Your Heart
Meduza Featuring GOODBOYS
98
Let Me Down Slowly
Alec Benjamin + Alessia Cara
99
HIGHEST IN THE ROOM
Travis Scott
100
Whiskey Glasses
Morgan Wallen

[spicymapping]

I’m distressed that my Nov 24 51 week is closer than my scenario 1. I’m hoping that’s just a coincidence because I don’t know what I’d do if we went to 51.

... and if I include November 17th it gets even distressingly closer. I ran into the same issue last year where it looked like November 17th didn’t count. It makes some sense that my scenario one is off on the latter end because the charts are weaker now, but they were even weaker last fall.

[lights]

Inverse basically already did this but I was halfway through it myself so: (same results)

[sirskimask]

Very happy that SICKO MODE finished in the top 10

[Deleted]

I wonder what they will do for the 2020 year end list now that there are two weeks in November that were cut off from 2019's list.

[sirskimask]

Dec 5, 2019 14:47:48 GMT -5 @delphox said:

I wonder what they will do for the 2020 year end list now that there are two weeks in November that were cut off from 2019's list.

They better readjust. I don't like the billboard year ending even earlier than it already does, it throws me off 

[crazyb]

Well at least they didnt' cut out nov. 24 2018...

[lights]

I'm guessing that now they moved the date that each chart is dated to, they're now going to end them in the second to last week of November rather than the last. And based on this year I'm going to assume they're not in the mood for missing out weeks.

So I'd guess 23/11/19 - 14/11/20

[samo🦕]

anyone got a portal to the alternate dimension where NRO is #100 instead of Robbery?

[nathanalbright]

On the plus side, I look forward to the hot takes for those who are going to put Robbery on their worst lists.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Dec 5, 2019 15:05:23 GMT -5 samo🦕 said:

anyone got a portal to the alternate dimension where NRO is #100 instead of Robbery?

Or Lover or On Chill. I'd hate it if both of these songs get caught between chart years.

[94sidekick]

According to this article, "Billboard’s year-end music recaps are based on chart performance from Nov. 24, 2018, to Nov. 16, 2019.": www.billboard.com/articles/business/chart-beat/8545496/billie-eilish-top-new-artist-2019-charts